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102. On Senegali Nationhood and African Unity: In Conversation with Mark Deets
- Author:
- Omar Auf and Mark Deets
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- How is Senegal’s recently-elected young president faring in his efforts to navigate a complex local and regional ethno-political landscape? And what echoes from the past inform such efforts? Historian of West Africa answers these questions
- Topic:
- Ethnicity, Interview, African Union, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and Senegal
103. The Elusive Saudi-Israeli Normalization Deal: Why an Agreement is Likely to Fall Short of Expectations
- Author:
- Robert Mogielnicki
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- A deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel will likely happen eventually but is unlikely to transform the Middle East
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, Abraham Accords, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia
104. Trump’s Alternate Reality in the Middle East
- Author:
- Hussein Ibish
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- With his recent foray into drastic measures to resolve the Israel-Palestine continuum, could there be a method to the madness of King Trump?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Real Estate, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
105. President Trump’s Policies in the Middle East
- Author:
- Raphael Cohen-Almagor
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The U.S. president’s pragmatic approach and his out-of-the-box bold ideas may bring a positive change to both Israel and the Palestinians provided they will be translated into action plans carefully and through sensitive communication with all concerned stakeholders
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
106. A Resurgent Trump Returns to a Turbulent Middle East
- Author:
- Paul Salem
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Trump’s unpredictable yet forceful leadership is entering a region in flux, offering both challenges and opportunities for his second term
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America
107. Donald Trump and the Art of Bending Reality
- Author:
- Gabriele Cosentino
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The gravity-defying political comeback of Donald Trump is the pinnacle of the chaotic career of an extreme risk taker with little concern for established norms. But his willingness to upend rules and bend reality to suit his vision might push U.S. and global politics to the breaking point
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Norms, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
108. Trump’s Return: What It Could Mean for Palestine and the Region
- Author:
- Ramzy Baroud
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s return to the White House in the context of the Gaza war and other regional conflicts raises questions regarding his approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
109. Trump 2.0: Where Rhetoric Meets Reality
- Author:
- Diana Bartelli Carlin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The new president has made big promises, but can he keep them?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Rhetoric
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
110. Round Two: Trump’s Foreign Policy Takes on New Challenges
- Author:
- William B. Quandt
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Trump will have to manage the continuing conflict in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and the rising power of China as he navigates the beginning of his second term
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- China, Ukraine, Middle East, and United States of America
111. American Netizens Worry For the Future of TikTok
- Author:
- Sydney Wise
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The temporary banning of TikTok in the United States in January prompted concern over the politicization of tech platforms. The two likeliest paths forward for TikTok represent alternate visions of the relationship between Big Tech and government
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Social Media, TikTok, and Politicization
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
112. The Consequences and Prospects of Israel’s Ban of UNRWA
- Author:
- Kjersti G. Berg, Søren Arnberg, and Lex Takkenberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- As the UN agency’s operations continue to be obstructed, its outright ban will continue the perpetuation of severe human suffering and have multidimensional ramifications, from illegality on the international level to political considerations regarding the tenuous ceasefire
- Topic:
- Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, 2023 Gaza War, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
113. In Jordan, Trump is a Divisive Figure
- Author:
- Laila Shadid
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Before Trump officially took office, some Jordanians believed that he was the “lesser of two evils”. Now, two months into his presidency, Trump has few fans in Amman
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Jordan
114. Longer Sticks and Shorter Carrots: How the U.S. is Changing its Engagement in MENA
- Author:
- Amr Adly
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The United States’ approach to achieving international hegemony is shifting away from trade and investments back toward bombs and missiles
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Investment, Trade, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America
115. The View from Africa Before and After the U.S. Elections—Q&A with Mark Deets
- Author:
- Omar Auf and Mark Deets
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Trump’s re-election brought massive changes to many aspects of the United States and the world. What led to Trump regaining the presidency? What will the reverberations look like in West Africa? Omar Auf sat with historian Mark Deets to find out
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Interview, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and United States of America
116. CTC Sentinel: January 2025 Issue
- Author:
- Paul Cruickshank, Julika Enslin, Nicolas Stockhammer, and Colin Clarke
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- France24’s Wassim Nasr is the only international journalist to spend time with Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa both before and after the fall of Assad. In the spring of 2023, Nasr traveled to Idlib where he met with al-Sharaa (who at the time was widely known by his jihadi kunya Abu Muhammad al-Julani). Nasr’s insights detailed in “Journey to Idlib” in the May 2023 issue of CTC Sentinel on al-Sharaa’s ideological journey away from the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida toward what might be termed pragmatic Islamism were invaluable to international security analysts. Late last year, shortly after the fall of the Assad regime, Nasr traveled back to Syria where he met with al-Sharaa for a second time and interviewed him. Speaking to CTC Sentinel about the trip in his follow-up feature interview “Journey to Damascus,” Nasr says: “Comparing the man I saw in 2023 with the man I saw in late 2024, he was the same. He spoke very slowly, very quietly. It was the same impression I had a year and a half ago, which was very surprising to many people. I was very cautious a year and a half ago, asking myself, ‘Okay, should I take what he is saying for granted?’ But I was reassured. Because I saw that when they took Aleppo, [when] they took Damascus, actually he applied what he said to me a year and a half ago. It can’t be dismissed as just talk.” In the feature article, Nicolas Stockhammer and Colin Clarke examine the Islamic State-inspired plot to attack a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna that was thwarted in August 2024. They write that the plot “underlined that Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), which appears to have inspired the lead plotter, remains an enduring threat, evolving its tactics and strategy while focusing on radicalizing followers and supporters through relentless online propaganda. The suspects in the Vienna plot epitomized the interplay of online and offline radicalization, with extremist content on social media platforms like TikTok playing a pivotal role.” In the second interview, Wassim Nasr provides insights from his interview last fall with Mohamed (Amadou) Koufa, the number two in JNIM, al-Qa`ida’s affiliate in the Sahel. For Nasr, the questions Koufa chose not to answer were even more significant than his answers. “In my assessment, Koufa’s refusal to speak about al-Qa`ida was significant. I think it’s very possible that JNIM is at least seriously discussing and maybe preparing to break from al-Qa`ida. Since the last third of December, JNIM has stopped referring to AQIM and stopped directing followers to the AQIM media outlet Al-Izza. … It looks like they might be preparing the landscape for a split with al-Qa`ida in the same way that Jabhat al-Nusra—the predecessor group of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the group now in power in Syria—split with al-Qa`ida.” Nasr says that it is possible that having seen HTS come to power in Syria after it split with al-Qa`ida and having seen al-Sharaa in recent weeks win broad international acceptance, JNIM may be preparing to start on a similar path away from the global jihadi group.
- Topic:
- Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Bashar al-Assad, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Syria, and Austria
117. CTC Sentinel: March 2025 Issue
- Author:
- Don Rassler, Yannick Veilleux-Lepage, Julika Enslin, Aaron Y. Zelin, and Jake Dulligan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- The March issue focuses in particular on the drone threat. In the feature article, Don Rassler and Yannick Veilleux-Lepage examine the evolution of terrorist drone usage and forecast its future trajectory in light of the tactical and technological innovations emerging from the Russo-Ukrainian War. They write that “the conflict has become a critical ‘innovation hub’ for drone warfare, accelerating advancements in the scale, speed, and range of drone operations. These developments are not only transforming the modern battlefield but also creating new opportunities for violent extremist organizations (VEOs) to enhance their operational capabilities.” They assess that “in particular, the war has normalized large-scale drone deployment, demonstrating the feasibility of launching coordinated drone swarms and phased attacks capable of overwhelming existing defenses” and note that the potential future pairing of high-speed First-Person View (FPV) drones with emerging technologies such as AI-assisted targeting “could significantly increase the precision and impact of future attacks.” In a similar vein, Jake Dulligan, Laura Freeman, Austin Phoenix, and Bradley Davis, in assessing the threat posed by commercial drones, write that the biggest concern “is that drone swarms could dramatically increase the impact of bad actor drone operations, be it kinetic strikes, ISR, or psychological warfare.” This month’s interview is with Dr. Christian Klos, the Director General of Public Security at Germany’s Federal Ministry of Interior and Community. He says that “when it comes to the external threat, I would agree with the assessment that ISIS-K is in Germany as well. What we observe from the intelligence side is that there are clear indications that the group intends to conduct attacks in Europe, and this can also include Germany and therefore we are very much aware of this threat, and we have seen also travel activities. So, it’s not just some minor indications.” Aaron Zelin assesses the new Syrian government’s efforts to counter the Islamic State, Hezbollah, and the captagon trade. He writes: “Unlike the Assad regime—which did little to fight the Islamic State, was closely aligned with Hezbollah, and produced captagon on an industrial scale—HTS in its guise as the new government of Syria is taking on these challenges assertively, and has a significant track record in doing so previously. Not only are these efforts a benefit to Syrian society and the security and stability of the country, but they also align with the interests of the United States and U.S. regional allies.” Alexandre Rodde and Justin Olmstead examine the evolution of vehicular ramming attacks and prevention efforts. They write that “when it comes to indicators and warnings of future attacks, the demonstration effect created by high-casualty vehicle-ramming attacks has in the past seemingly produced a surge in copycat attacks, which means the security agencies should be particularly vigilant given the recent uptick in high-profile attacks, including the New Orleans attack.”
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Weapons, Drones, Islamic State, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Public Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
118. CTC Sentinel: April 2025 Issue
- Author:
- Michael Knights, Paul Cruickshank, Ayush Verma, Imtiaz Baloch, and Riccardo Valle
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In this month’s feature article, Michael Knights illuminates the nexus between Iraq’s oil sector and the Iran threat network. He writes: “The Iran threat network suffered grievous blows in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and Iran itself in 2024, and this has arguably made oil-rich Iraq even more important to the network. Facing renewed maximum pressure from the United States, Iran needs not only Iraq’s terrorist fundraising potential but also its value as a ‘laundromat’ through which Iranian energy products can be fraudulently relabeled as Iraqi exports. Using their control of the al-Sudani government, Iran-backed terrorist groups and militias are developing significant new strands of threat financing using Iraq’s oil sector, which combine to provide billions of dollars of illicit value each year. Iraq is thus emerging as Iran’s best bet for neutering the Trump administration’s renewed maximum pressure campaign.” He notes that “U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations are no longer content to steal oil, only to have smuggling businessmen realize most of the profits. Instead, terrorist organizations have muscled into this value-addition segment of the oil market in recent years, with AAH [Asaib Ahl al-Haq] and KH [Kataib Hezbollah] leading the pack.” Our interview is with Charlie Winter, the co-founder and chief research officer of ExTrac AI, an AI-assisted intelligence platform that identifies, maps, and forecasts geopolitical risk, including in the counterterrorism space. He states: “Our USP pivots around accessing, ingesting, and processing high-relevance publicly available information and data from hard-to-reach parts of the internet that reflects the online and offline activities and psychological operations of various non-state and state threat actors. And through our platform, which is both a web and mobile app, we provide both access to that data and the ability to generate insight from it rapidly—and we do that using a range of different kinds of automation, machine learning, [and] artificial intelligence.” He adds: “We essentially have built our system to let machines do what they do best and let human analysts do what they do best, and enable the analysts to spend a lot more time performing the highest-value tasks in the intelligence cycle.” Ayush Verma, Imtiaz Baloch, and Riccardo Valle examine the Baloch insurgency in Pakistan. They write: “The Baloch insurgency in Pakistan has intensified sharply since the beginning of 2025, marked by sophisticated attacks such as the Jaffar Express hijacking by Baloch Liberation Army-Jeeyand faction (BLA-J) on March 11, 2025, which resulted in the kidnapping of more than 400 passengers and death of at least 26 hostages. Groups like BLA-J, Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), and Baloch Liberation Army-Azad faction (BLA-A) continue to deploy suicide bombers, including women, and temporarily seize territories, targeting Chinese nationals and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. The insurgency’s regional spillover, especially into Iran, and competition for resources and prominence among factions of the insurgency further complicate Pakistan’s internal security.” They add: “Without a political resolution addressing long-standing grievances, the insurgency threatens to escalate, destabilizing both national and regional security.”
- Topic:
- Oil, Terrorism, Insurgency, Artificial Intelligence, Regional Security, Threat Assessment, and Transnational Threats
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Iraq, South Asia, and Middle East
119. CTC Sentinel: May 2025 Issue
- Author:
- Daisy Muibu, Yayedior Mbengue, Sean Morrow, Don Rassler, and Briar Bundy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In the May 2025 feature article, Daisy Muibu and Yayedior Mbengue examine the evolving counterterrorism challenge in Somalia. They write that “nearly three years after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the security landscape remains precarious. Al-Shabaab has resurged, coordination between federal and Puntland forces is limited despite Islamic State-Somalia’s growing global remit, and the future of the African Union mission is uncertain. These trends are driven by political discord, a fragmented national landscape, donor fatigue, operational challenges, and al-Shabaab’s resilience.” Our interview is with Christine Abizaid, the former director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center. She emphasizes that: “The CT business is still a needles-in-the-haystack business; it’s still one piece of information that can open up a whole new threat network. You have to be digging into and accessing multiple sources of information, collaborating with multiple partners who see things in different ways.” Aymenn Al-Tamimi charts the rise, fall, and dissolution of al-Qa`ida’s loyalist group in Syria Hurras al-Din. He writes that: “The primary ongoing concern from a counterterrorism perspective is that regardless of Hurras al-Din’s own weakness, individuals who were members of the group, particularly leading figures, may try to coordinate with other members of al-Qa`ida or other jihadis outside Syria for the purpose of organizing terrorist attacks abroad.” Saif Tahir and Amira Jadoon examine the geographical origins, mobility patterns, and demographic characteristics of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants through an analysis of 615 profiles from the organization’s own martyrdom commemorative publications spanning 2006-2025. Julika Enslin outlines the evolution of the Islamist terror threat landscape in Germany since 2020 by taking an in-depth look at all nine executed Islamist terrorist attacks and the 20 publicly reported thwarted attack plots during that time. A personal note: Over the last 10 years, it has been the privilege of a lifetime to serve as the Editor-in-Chief of CTC Sentinel to showcase the best and brightest scholars and practitioners in our field. It’s time for me to pass the baton. The publication will be in great hands with my brilliant colleagues Kristina Hummel and Don Rassler. I look forward to continuing my close association with the Combating Terrorism Center and CTC Sentinel. The faculty and staff at the center, past and present, are the very best of America. I greatly appreciate the trust that directors Colonel Sean Morrow, Brian Dodwell, and Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Bryan Price placed in me. Above all, I would like to express my thanks to our extraordinary contributors. They have greatly helped the counterterrorism enterprise. Who thinks wins.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Al-Shabaab, African Union, Salafi-Jihadism, and Hurras al-Din
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Syria, North America, Somalia, and United States of America
120. Introducing Hafiz Pashayev’s An Ambassador’s Manifesto
- Author:
- Damjan Krnjević Mišković
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- There is a word in the Azerbaijani language—ağsaqqal—which means something like a wise and respected elder of the community from whom one traditionally seeks advice. Hafiz Pashayev is widely acknowledged as the ağsaqqal of the country’s diplomatic service. And the book we are here to celebrate is an important element in explaining this status he deservedly enjoys. Now, before Hafiz m. came to be widely regarded as the ağsaqqal of Azerbaijani diplomacy, he became a founder (fondatore) of “new modes and orders,” as a Florentine political philosopher of the highest rank memorably put it centuries ago [NM, D I:pr.1]. In fact, Hafiz m. founded two such new modes and orders: Azerbaijan’s diplomatic presence in Washington in November 1992, and, here in Baku, the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in March 2006, which in January 2014 was granted a charter and thus officially transformed, following the founder’s original intention, into ADA University. We are here this evening to discuss his memoir of this first founding, titled An Ambassador’s Manifesto. A memoir of the second—or at least on the pedagogical and state‑building logic informing this second founding—is yet to come.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Memoir
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Azerbaijan
121. Climate Change, Vulnerable Groups, and Data-Driven Policymaking
- Author:
- Selahattin Selsah Pasali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- More than four in five people in Asia and the Pacific reportedly face multi‑hazard risks associated with slow or sudden onset climate events, according to the latest Asia‑Pacific Disaster Report published by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). Many existing hotspots of climate‑related multi‑hazards are forecast to intensify. Individuals residing in these hotspots, often already low‑income and with limited access to basic services and infrastructure, will likely be exposed to more frequent and intense sudden‑ and slow‑onset natural disasters. Noteworthy is the assessment that migrants, refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and stateless persons residing in many parts of these vast geographic areas reportedly face even more daunting challenges in this category, due to their vulnerable legal status, limited coping capacity, and access to basic services and opportunities.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Inequality, Displacement, and Vulnerability
- Political Geography:
- Asia
122. Progress in Ending Statelessness in Europe
- Author:
- Sam Mosallai
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Europe is home to almost 500,000 stateless people or people with undetermined nationality, mainly due to the dissolution of the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia over three decades ago. Other causes of statelessness in Europe include the lack of safeguards to prevent children from being born stateless, gaps in universal birth registration, and, to a lesser extent, the deprivation of nationality as a counterterrorism measure. Many Roma, particularly those residing in Southeastern Europe, are stateless or at risk of statelessness due to persistent discrimination against them. Additionally, due to the lack of dedicated statelessness determination procedures found in many countries in Europe, many stateless migrants cannot enjoy the rights to which they are entitled under international law.
- Topic:
- Discrimination, Nationality, and Statelessness
- Political Geography:
- Europe
123. A Region without Statelessness?: How Central Asia Proved It Is Possible
- Author:
- Sergiu Gaina
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Imagine living in the country where you were born but never having the right to call it home. No passport, no identity document, no access to education, healthcare, or legal employment. Every visit to a government office ends the same way: “We have no record of you.” For hundreds of thousands of people in Central Asia, this was their reality. Statelessness—where a person is not recognized as a national (citizen) by any country—left them in limbo, unable to fully participate in society. It meant exclusion from essential services, vulnerability to exploitation, and a life spent on the margins, with no clear path to change. But things have changed. Over the past decade or so, Central Asia has led the world in ending statelessness. The region has solved one‑third of all statelessness cases globally—a clear demonstration that with sufficient political will and strategic action, this problem can be eradicated. Since 2014, more than 220,000 formerly stateless people in Central Asia have acquired nationality (citizenship), making it one of the most successful regions in the world in reducing stateless populations.
- Topic:
- Citizenship, Services, Nationality, and Statelessness
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan
124. Uncharted Rebellion: The Shifting Frontiers of Left-Wing Extremism
- Author:
- José Pedro Zúquete
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- For readers of Baku Dialogues, a journal dedicated to fostering intellectual exchange across the Silk Road region, the study of left‑wing extremism (LWE) offers a lens into global ideological currents that resonate even in this historically rich and geopolitically and geoeconomically significant area. The Silk Road region, stretching from the South Caucasus to Central Asia, has long been a crossroads of cultures, ideas, and political movements. Today, it faces many of the same challenges of radicalization and extremism that afflict other parts of the world, though often in unique local forms.
- Topic:
- Security, Geopolitics, Leftist Politics, and Political Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and South Caucasus
125. Sharks in the Muddy Waters: Terrorism and Mounting Global Disorder
- Author:
- Jahangir E. Arasli
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- The international system is in increasing disarray, thanks partly to systemic and structural factors. The strategic competition between major powers and groups of states is growing sharply. One particular consequence of this process is an escalation in scale and scope of shooting wars and armed conflicts (e.g., in Europe and the Middle East) and other antagonisms on the edge of war (e.g., Taiwan, the South China Sea, and South Asia). Moreover, the existing geopolitical alignments are shifting oddly. Neo‑revisionism, expansionist foreign policies, and advanced territorial claims militarize international relations. With a reoccurrence of “utility of force,” the standing norms of international law are frying, and WMD proliferation regimes and arms control treaties are crumbling. Trade wars and deteriorating growth prospects are increasing strains and risks to the global economy and individual states. Political and ideological polarization in societies, institutional decay, inefficiency of elites, and the rise of populism affect states’ stability. The challenges of climate change and emerging technologies remain unanswered and unsettled.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and International System
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
126. A Proposal for a Trans-Caspian Development Bank
- Author:
- Carlos Roa, Charles Yockey, and Ibrahim Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Diplomacy is not alchemy. Just as lead cannot be magically turned into gold, grand visions require practical tools to become reality. The Middle Corridor—a trade and transport route stretching from Central Asia across the Caspian Sea to the South Caucasus and onward to Türkiye and the European continent—is one such vision. The corridor has captured the imagination of policymakers and strategists, who seek to reorient global trade flows, diversify energy routes, and diminish dependencies on geopolitical chokepoints like the Suez Canal. Yet, for all its potential, the Middle Corridor still remains more of an ambition than a reality, constrained by insufficient infrastructure, fragmented political coordination, and—perhaps most importantly, a lack of cohesive financial strategy. For the Middle Corridor to succeed as a vital artery of international commerce, it requires more than bilateral agreements and fragmented investments. The project requires a dedicated institution capable of bridging its diverse stakeholders, financing transformative projects, and aligning growth with the twenty‑first century’s imperatives like digital innovation and climate adaptation. A Trans‑Caspian Development Bank (TCDB) could provide precisely the kind of focused and flexible framework needed to turn the Middle Corridor into a thriving economic corridor. By pooling resources and expertise from member states, private investors, and international partners, the TCDB would fill the critical gap between lofty ambitions and actionable progress.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Trade, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and South Caucasus
127. Assessing the Achievements of COP29
- Author:
- Elnur Soltanov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Azerbaijan became the first country from the Silk Road region to host an annual session of the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change—in this case, the 29th session. Hence, COP29. This took place in Baku between 11 and 22 November 2024 and had something like 76,000 registered participants. And Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has a document that says that COP29 “was attended by representatives of 196 countries and nearly 200 international, regional, and other organizations. More than 80 heads of state and government participated at the World Leaders’ Climate Action Summit organized within the framework of COP29 on 12-13 November 2024.” So, evidently, this was hard to pull-off successfully.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Azerbaijan
128. Achieving Minimum Viable Cyber Resilience: A Leadership Top Ten “To-Do” List
- Author:
- Steve Hill
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- I t is a reflection of the growing maturity of the cybersecurity industry that when the UK’s Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Pat McFadden, a senior cabinet minister responsible for national security, claimed in a speech to the November 2024 NATO Cyber Defence Conference that Russia “can turn the lights off for millions,” he was roundly criticized for hyperbole. Pragmatism has replaced alarmism as the driver for persuading the state and the C-suite to invest in cybersecurity. The world has neither ever been more complex nor more fast-moving. But that is not the same as saying that the world is more dangerous. The same inter-connectedness that creates supply-chain fragility also acts as a disincentive for governments whose priorities are primarily inward-looking (domestic stability and growth) to escalate conflicts to outright regional or global warfare that will likely undermine that domestic agenda. We see therefore brinkmanship and “grey conflict” taking place throughout the world. This includes targeted assassinations, arson attacks, disruption of underseas cables, drone activity, social media election influence campaigns, and all kinds of cyber-attacks.
- Topic:
- NATO, Cybersecurity, Gray Zone, Resilience, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and North America
129. PfP Enters its Fourth Decade: A Journey Undertaken with Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Rick Fawn
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Azerbaijan was one of the first countries to join NATO’s major outreach program, Partnership for Peace (PfP), upon its establishment at the Alliance’s summit in Brussels on 10-11 January 1994—a year that also marked the fifty-fifth anniversary of the founding of the Alliance itself. This happened on 4 May 1994, when President Heydar Aliyev came to Brussels to sign the Partnership for Peace Framework Document, an event that took place about a year after he returned to Baku to begin pulling the country back from the edge of total collapse. Surely there was an element of deliberate sequencing involved, for the very next day after signing this document, on 5 May 1994, a final agreement was reached on a Russianbrokered ceasefire to end the First Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And only four months later, in September 1994, the negotiations on the Contract of the Century were successfully concluded that would facilitate the export westwards of Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbons rather than through Russia. This last development had been predicated—and again unlikely to be coincidental timing—by the Clinton Administration’s abandonment of its “Russia First” policy, which had elevated Moscow’s interests above those of other post-Soviet successor states.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Azerbaijan
130. Training Diplomats in Azerbaijan: Past Successes and Future Plans
- Author:
- Fariz Ismailzade
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of Azerbaijan as one of 15 newly independent republics in 1991, the development of a sovereign and professional diplomatic service became of utmost importance and urgency. Doing so, it was understood, was a necessary attribute and instrument for pursuing a country’s foreign policy agenda, which at minimum should aim to strengthen sovereignty, minimize external risks, develop bilateral and multilateral relations, and properly position a given country on the global map of nations. Yet apart from Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, Azerbaijan and the remaining 11 former Soviet republics had limited experience with a truly professional and competent diplomatic service. The Soviet Union granted little authority to the ‘ethnic republics’ and provided them with no autonomy in foreign relations. Consequently, the offices of the republic-level Ministries of Foreign Affairs remained quite small and primarily handled protocol responsibilities for foreign dignitaries and guests traveling from Moscow to those parts of the country. The one in Baku, for instance, was established in 1944 as the People’s Commissariat of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Training, and Post-Soviet Space
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Azerbaijan
131. Breaking Free from Parochial Geopolitical Complexity: Azerbaijan’s Quest for a Third Path
- Author:
- Vasif Huseynov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Though geographically small at 186,043 square kilometers—and dwarfed by neighboring Iran, Türkiye, and especially Russia—the South Caucasus is home to over 50 distinct ethnic groups, encompassing a diverse tapestry of languages, religions, and cultures. Another unique characteristic for a region of this size is its consistent role as a microcosm of global geopolitics. This has been the case since the region’s three countries regained their respective independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, with each aligning with different geopolitical centers. While Georgia pursued Euro-Atlantic integration, Armenia aligned with Russia within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Azerbaijan, adopting a balanced foreign policy, opted for neutrality, maintaining equidistance and cultivating friendly, mutually-beneficial relations with both Russia and the West.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Diversity, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus
132. Washington’s Opportunity in Central Asia (and the South Caucasus)
- Author:
- Stephen Blank
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- As the Trump Administration conducts a global survey of strategic opportunities for the United States, it would be well advised to view Central Asia and the South Caucasus (the core subregions of what this journal’s Editorial Statement calls the “Silk Road region” and what is commonly still called “Eurasia” in some circles) as areas where a creative, new approach would yield lasting strategic gains—both for America and those states themselves. To be sure, this region is not and will not become a major priority or a vital interest for the United States—nor is that necessary. But its importance in world politics as an area of strategic competition among many rival states, including Russia and China and several aspirant and rising middle powers, is increasing. Therefore, it should be understood to be beneficial for all the states in Central Asia and the South Caucasus that Washington both enhance and sustain at a higher level its comprehensive, multi-dimensional engagement with them because only America can provide or convene many of the public goods they need.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, South Caucasus, and United States of America
133. A Transforming Eurasian Order
- Author:
- Feng Yujun
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- I n recent years, driven by multiple factors, the international order has been undergoing rapid adjustment, evolution, and reshaping. In Eurasia, the Russia-Ukraine war has triggered persisting upheaval, acting as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in the regional order. Its impact has prompted historic changes in power dynamics, mutual perceptions, national identities, and strategic orientations among Eurasian states—shifts unmatched since the Soviet Union’s dissolution over three decades ago. These transformations are set to profoundly influence the regional order, becoming a central element in current and future global developments.
- Topic:
- Post-Soviet Space, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
134. The New Geopolitical Scramble for Corridors
- Author:
- Velina Tchakarova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- The geopolitical landscape in winter 2024- 2025 is marked by significant transformation, uncertainty, and fierce competition for influence. The geopolitical hotspots of this new contest are most visible in the regions that bridge Europe and Asia—what the editors of Baku Dialogues call the “Silk Road region.” Central to this dynamic is the growing intersection of interests between major regional players against the backdrop of a Cold War 2.0, putting the West against what I was the first to call the “DragonBear” alliance of China and Russia. These corridors are not just infrastructural undertakings; they are the arteries of global power, trade, and connectivity, reflecting deeper geopolitical ambitions and contestations. This extensive analysis elaborates on today’s most significant connectivity projects, exploring their strategic implications and the new power dynamics they are fostering. In the traditional sense, empires have always relied on transport and trade corridors to project power and expand influence. From the ancient Silk Roads to the West’s colonial sea routes, the ability to control the flow of goods and resources has often equated to geopolitical dominance. Today, this principle remains unchanged, though the scale and stakes have reached unprecedented levels.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, and International Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia
135. GTB v Spain: The Right to a Birth Certificate Under the European Convention on Human Rights
- Author:
- Cameron Nye
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- On 16November 2023, the European Court of Human Rights (‘Court’) issued a landmark judgment in the case of GTB v Spain (‘GTB’).1The case concerned the prolonged delay by Spanish authorities in assisting the applicant, Mr GTB, with registering his birth and obtaining identity documents, despite being aware of his inability to do so. In a first for the Court, itwasheld that art 8 of the Convention on the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (‘ECHR’),2which protects the right to private and family life, includes a right to birth registration. Accordingly, the Court found a violation against the Spanish authorities for their failure to act diligently to secure this right.3Birth registration is vital to establish a child’s legal identity, family ties and often their nationality, all of which are important for accessing fundamental rights. Children who lack birth registration can face significant difficulties in their education, healthcare and personal lives. In some cases, these children are also stateless or at the risk thereof.4Nevertheless, significant barriers to birth registration persist across Europe and other regions. The GTB judgment has clear potential to place the issue of birth registration and access to identity documents at the heart of the Court’s progressive development of art 8. The Court not only established that access to documentation is a substantive right under the ECHR, but also articulated this through a noteworthy emphasis on the right to have one’s identity recognised in law, particularly where children are concerned.5The judgment also takes a step further in the Court’s interpretation of art 8, considering as its central legal issue whether states have an obligation to go beyond standard procedures to secure an individual’s ability to develop their sense of identity.6While the Court’s analysis raisesvarious questions,particularly whether the obligation exists only as a remedy for parental inaction,it nevertheless establishes several principles that advance the protections of art 8 concerning an individual’s access to a legal identity.
- Topic:
- Identity, European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), Statelessness, and Documentation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Spain
136. Recognition of the Status of Stateless Persons and Right of Residence for Palestinians in Belgium: Applying the Principle of res judicata to Avoid Divergences among Courts
- Author:
- Giulia Bittoni
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- The recognition of the status of stateless Palestinians within the European Union (‘EU’) is complex and sensitive, notably due to the challenges in determining whether Palestine qualifies as a state. Moreover, not all EU Member states grant a right of residence to stateless individuals. In some states, including Belgium, recognising statelessness does not automatically confer a right of residence, creating a gap between statelessness recognition and thisright.1This discrepancy has led to numerous legal actions in Belgian civil courts to seek this residence right.Until August 2024, Belgium recognisedstateless statussolely through judicial procedure.More specifically,until 2017, the Tribunal de première instance (‘Tribunalof First Instance’)held jurisdiction in these matters. Since 3 August 2017, jurisdiction has shifted to the Tribunal de la familleet de la jeunesse(‘The Family and Juvenile Tribunal’) based on the residence of the applicant.
- Topic:
- European Union, Palestinians, Statelessness, and Aliens Act
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Palestine, and Belgium
137. Statelessness, Gender, and Intersectionality in Bjorkquist et al v Attorney General of Canada
- Author:
- Heather Alexander and Jocelyn Kane
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- Bjorkquist et alv AttorneyGeneral of Canada, decided in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice on 19 December 2023, is a landmark ruling overturning the so-called ‘second generation cut off’in Canadian citizenship law that prohibitedCanadian citizens born abroad from automatically passing their Canadian citizenship to their children if thelatterwere also born abroad.1The ruling therefore establishes the rights of ‘lost Canadians’to Canadian citizenship.Applicants and the Court made several important contributions not only to the right to a nationality under Canadian law, but also to the global fight against statelessness by lending support to the concept of intersectional discrimination in the context of the right to citizenship. Experts have hailed it as a groundbreaking decision for the principle of intersectionality in discrimination.2A further contribution was made concerning the ability of stateless persons to have standing before national courts despite their non-citizen status. Yet,despite the Court acknowledging that the law in question causes the risk of statelessness,3the case did notdirectly address Canada’s international obligations to prevent and resolve statelessness. Nor did applicants argue, nor the Court independently find, that the creation of statelessness is a Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms(‘Charter’) violation.4Nevertheless, the case will help to close a serious and gendered gap in Canadian law that was producing statelessness.
- Topic:
- Citizenship, Discrimination, Intersectionality, Gender, and Statelessness
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
138. Towards Equitable, Transparent and Evidence-based Malaysian Citizenship Law Amendments: Taking Stock of Remaining Risks of Statelessness and Exclusion
- Author:
- Rodziana bt Mohamed Razali and Chin Chin Sia
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- In this commentary, we critically reflect on the recentcitizenship amendmentspassedby the Malaysian House of Representatives via the Constitution (Amendment) Bill 2024on 17 October2024.1Wealso examine the critical issues inherent within several facets of Malaysia’s citizenship frameworkthat have been deemed regressive for the potential heightening of statelessness and exclusion from citizenship among several impacted categories of persons. We argue that equitable and effective reforms to the citizenship regime are not just necessary but also encouraging. These reforms are needed to mitigate the risk of statelessness and its negative repercussions in accordance with art 15 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,2in which everyone has the right to nationality. Restrictive citizenship lawswhich do not align with art 15 have undesirable consequences for families,impactinglife choices such as where individuals may choose to live, work, study or even where they have children and raise a family. We then recommend using a balanced and equitable approach, supported by credible data, evidence and transparent processes, to reassess the revision of the citizenship laws for the future sustainability of Malaysia as a democratic and progressive country.
- Topic:
- Law, Citizenship, Exclusion, and Statelessness
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia and Southeast Asia
139. World Conference on Statelessness 2024 – Key Takeaways
- Author:
- Subin Mulmi and Jenna Biedscheid
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- The Second World Conference on Statelessness was convened at Taylor’s University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from 26 to 29 February 2024.1It was co-organised by the Institute on Statelessness and Inclusion (ISI), Nationality for All (NFA), Development of Human Resources for Rural Areas Malaysia (DHRRA), Family Frontiers (‘FF’) and supported by the Human Rights Commission of Malaysia (SUHAKAM).The Conference was the biggest convening of the statelessness field to date, attended by 450 in-person participants and over 100 online participants from all over the world. Around 30% of the participants who responded to a voluntary survey identified themselves as persons with lived experience of statelessness.2This shows a significant increase from the first World Conference in 2019, where only 10% of participants had lived experience.3In contrast to the first Conference being held in The Hague, the venue moving to Malaysia is reflective of greater accessibility and representation, with the Asia Pacific holding the largest population of stateless persons in the world.4Over the course of three and a half days, the Conference featured plenary sessions, panel discussions, workshops and skill labs focusing on the three themes of ‘Solidarity, Knowledge and Change’. The Conference also featured the Immersive Arts and Culture Programmetitled‘Think of Others’,which was an integral part of the event.5This piece captures some of the key conversations that took place at the Conference and provides a reflective analysis from the perspective of two members of the organising team. Their analysis delves into broad takeaways that affect civil society and the statelessness ecosystem through the three themes of the Conference, with the purpose of targeting a diverse set of participants. The findings are based on the notes taken by the designated notetakers and the recorded videos of the plenary sessions.
- Topic:
- Development, Rural, Human Resources, Inclusion, Statelessness, and World Conference on Statelessness
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
140. Stateless Persons in the Czech Republic: Filling the Gaps without Good Faith?
- Author:
- Alžbeta Králová and Linda Janků
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- ‘I feel like I am nobody. That’s it. A stateless person is nobody. Someone who does not exist. This is how I feel.’1Thissense of invisibility or non-existenceasillustrated by the wordsof one of Czechia’s (more commonly known as the Czech Republic)stateless persons is often associated with the phenomenon of statelessness. What reinforces this feeling is that State authorities themselves treat stateless persons as invisible. This only intensifies the disintegration of their personal and social identity. Furthermore, states not only ignore the plight of stateless persons, but they also seem to disregard their international commitments to this extremely vulnerable group.2This includes the Czech Republic, which appears reluctant to uphold the principle of good faith while interpreting its international obligations towards stateless persons.Statelessness in the Czech Republic today appears in the migratory context, similarly to other European countries. It is estimated that up to 1,500 stateless individuals live in the Czech Republic, including both those residing legally and illegally.3However, the issue has received very little attention and has long been perceived as non-existent, due to both a lack of public awareness and the Czech government’s reluctance to address it. For several decades, stateless persons have been caught in a cycle of lacking legal pathways to regularise their stay, facing expulsion proceedings and repeated detentions.
- Topic:
- Citizenship, Statelessness, and New Aliens Act
- Political Geography:
- Czech Republic
141. Reflections on Statelessness Awareness Forum (Europe) 2024
- Author:
- Aleksejs Ivashuk, Jessica Schmieder, and Aleksandra Semeriak Gavrilenok
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- Statelessness Awareness Forum (Europe), or SAF(E), is the firstever international forum hosted by a stateless-led organisation, Apatride Network.1The organisation is one of the biggest stateless-led organisations in the world, working to address statelessness in the European Union(‘EU’) byfocusing on awareness raising, legal assistance and stakeholder bridge-building, and impact initiatives that tackle daily challenges faced by stateless people.2These daily challenges may include issues in documentation, employment, banking access, freedom of movement, lack of representation in the media and other relevant spaces. SAF(E) is designed by Apatride Network as a continuous, annual event that takes on the challenge of the lack of systemic awarenessraising on statelessness. The first edition was held from 20 to 24March2024 in Alicante, Spain. It brought together leading experts in statelessness, including experts from stateless-led organisations, representation from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (‘UNHCR’), the Institute on Statelessness and Inclusion (ISI), the Hungarian Helsinki Committee,and the European Network on Statelessness (‘ENS’). This reflection piece is meant to highlight the significance of SAF(E), the lessons drawn and learnedfrom the forumand the impact it has had on addressing statelessness.
- Topic:
- European Union and Statelessness
- Political Geography:
- Europe
142. Reframing the Windrush Scandal as an International Statelessness Crisis
- Author:
- Eve Hayes de Kalaf
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- The 2018 so-termed ‘Windrush Scandal’ highlighted the discriminatory actions of the British State against Commonwealth migrants who, having legally settled in the United Kingdom in the postwar period, found their right to remain wrongly challenged by the Home Office. The controversy led to threats of deportation and incarceration for some, while others found they were locked out of the country indefinitely. This article examines some of the ways in which racialised and minority groups can encounter ‘statelessness-like’ experiences in their everyday interactions with the state, as well as exploring some of the far-reaching and unexpected consequences of measures that have historically attempted to limit migration from the Caribbean and the broader Commonwealth to the United Kingdom. Drawing on extensive oral history interviews conducted as part of the project ‘The Windrush Scandal in a Transnational and Commonwealth Context’, this paper argues that the Scandal provides statelessness scholars with a much-needed window into the distinct ways Global North countries have sought to prevent migrants and their descendants, many of whom see themselves as citizens, from full enjoyment of their rights. Ultimately, the author proposes that the (re)positioning of the Windrush Scandal as a crisis worthy of international attention will firmly embed the inclusion of this controversy into the field of statelessness studies, while opening new opportunities for cultural, political and legal exploration of the broader ways in which people’s claims to citizenship recognition can be thwarted, overridden or ignored by the state.
- Topic:
- Migrants, Statelessness, Commonwealth of Nations, and Windrush
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Caribbean
143. Maintaining Regional Stability Amid Complex Regime Transitions in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities for COMESA Member States
- Author:
- Mumo Nzau
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- With a market reach of approximately 600 million people and straddling 21 countries, the COMESA bloc occupies a vast chunk of the continent. Contemporary literature on the region generally points to huge macroeconomic potential in as far as the holistic developmental and wealth creation projections are concerned. Nonetheless, a sizeable number of COMESA countries have, from time to time, experienced phases of complex regime transition, a state of affairs that comes with an aura of regional instability, thereby undermining the prosperity prospects of a trading bloc that boasts a combined GDP of US$ 768 billion. Over the past decade, a sizeable number of these countries have been faced with one form or another of political turmoil and assorted civil strife, especially within the context of regime transitions and/or change of power from one government to the next. Against this background, through the lenses of neofunctionalism and liberal institutionalist theories, this paper examines the question of how best to ensure and/or maintain regional stability in the midst of such complex regime transitions, with the view of teasing out the challenges and opportunities before offering sustainable policy recommendations for COMESA countries.
- Topic:
- COMESA, Regional Stability, Neofunctionalism, Liberal Institutionalism, and Complex Regime Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Africa
144. Terminating Insurgency in Mozambique: Reflections on the SADC Mission In Mozambique
- Author:
- Oita Etyang, Lweendo Kambela, and Stephen Muleya
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The continued threat of insurgency in Mozambique has triggered academic and policy interest in the recent past. Indeed, the ramifications caused by acts of insurgency globally and in Africa remain endemic. This calls for the need to establish sustainable and context-specific interventions at regional and national levels. The Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) regions have not been spared from the lethality of insurgency, with Mozambique morphing into the epicentre of interest. Insurgency has caused untold suffering to communities in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, prompting the deployment of a SADC mission. As a regional peace operation, the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) was deployed on 15 July 2021 following approval by the Extraordinary SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government held in Maputo, Mozambique on 23 June 2021. The main objective of SAMIM was to support the Republic of Mozambique to combat armed groups and acts of insurgency, particularly in the Cabo Delgado province. This article seeks to understand the impact of the SAMIM intervention. It mainly interrogates SAMIM’s mandate, structure, success, challenges and lessons learned using both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies and various open data sources, including programmatic documents.
- Topic:
- Security, Insurgency, Peacekeeping, COMESA, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgado
145. The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend: Ethiopia–Eritrea Relations and the 2020 Conflict in the Tigray Region in Ethiopia
- Author:
- Berita Mutinda Musau
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Abiy Ahmed’s assumption of power in Ethiopia in April 2018 brought positive changes that were lauded internationally but unwelcomed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) –one of the coalition parties in the Ethiopian government. In November 2020, the Ethiopian Federal Government commenced a massive ‘law enforcement operation’ in the Tigray region against the TPLF. Eritrea’s involvement in the conflict alongside the Ethiopian government internationalised it. This article analyses Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray conflict. Since their 1998 border war over the Badme region, Eritrea and Ethiopia have had frosty relations. To date, they are still mending these relationships despite their 2018 rapprochement. This article argues that the alliance of the Ethiopian government with Eritrea against the TPLF could be a case of ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ and thus examines Ethiopia–Eritrea relations and their strategic considerations that necessitated this alliance. Adopting the realist theory of international relations, the study reviews literature and historically analyses the relations between the two countries. The study’s main objective is to understand their strategic considerations for conflict and cooperation at different times in history and particularly in the Tigray conflict. The study’s findings reveal that amid the Ethiopia‒Eritrea relations are Eritrean‒Tigrayan relations, anchored in issues of identity construction and deconstruction, statehood and sovereignty, animosity, mistrust and apprehension. The study recommends that the relations between Abiy Ahmed’s government, Eritrea and the TPLF should be keenly monitored and managed for the stability of the two countries and the Horn of Africa region.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Armed Conflict, and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea
146. The East African Community Regional Force in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Successes, Challenges and Prospects
- Author:
- Kizito Sabala and Vyalirendi Jacques Muhindo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of more than 20 years of existence of the United Nations Organization Mission in Congo/Mission de l’Organization des Nations Unies au Congo (MONUSCO), the East African Community (EAC) deployed a military force in the eastern part of the country in November 2022. The purpose of the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) was to contribute towards the resolution of the conflict that has ravaged the region for decades, and specifically to neutralise the M23 resurgence and the numerous informal armed groups. The regional economic community that brings together eight countries, namely, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda was doing this for the first time since its establishment in 1999. Slightly over a year since its deployment, and eventual withdrawal in December 2023, there are several questions that arise which are the subject of this article: (i) Why did the EAC deploy EACRF when there is MONUSCO? (ii) to what extent had EACRF achieved its objective? (iii) was the mandate of the regional force appropriate for the situation in eastern DRC and how did it compare to that of MONUSCO? (iv) what are the challenges and prospects for peace, security and political stability in the DRC? While the article relies predominantly on secondary data, it taps into limited primary sources obtained by one of the authors during field humanitarian assignments in different parts in DRC.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Humanitarian Intervention, Military Intervention, and M23
- Political Geography:
- Africa, East Africa, and Democratic Republic of Congo
147. The Farmer–Fulani Herdsmen Clashes and the Socio-Economic Development of North-Western Nigeria: A Case Study of Southern Kaduna
- Author:
- David Villah Dan-Azumi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The clashes between Fulani herdsmen and farmers in Nigeria have become endemic and persistent for decades. Climate change, cattle rustling, expansion of cultivated lands and population growth are among the major drivers of these clashes. However, the trends in the clashes in recent years suggest strong political, religious, ethnic and economic undertones. The recurrent and escalating nature of the violence in recent times is worrisome and despite the existing security efforts at the federal and state levels, the conflict remains unabated. This research examines the farmer–Fulani herdsmen clashes and their impact on the socio-economic development of southern Kaduna state. To explain the multifaceted nature of the clashes and how they affect the livelihoods of the affected communities, the study employs a theory of frustration and conflict, a quantitative research method, a survey research design and inferential statistics to analyse data. Findings from the research show an intricate interplay of socio-political, economic and ethno-religious factors in the violent clashes, a lack of feasible and realistic grazing policies and a lack of strong political will to address the conflict. Based on the research findings, the study recommends the establishment of cattle ranches in accordance with the existing laws on land ownership and robust security measures and structures to anticipate and forestall the recurrent clashes.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Justice, Economic Development, Reconciliation, and Fulani Herdsmen
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
148. Distributive Justice and Land-Related Conflict in Panda Development Area of Nasarawa State, Nigeria
- Author:
- Joshua O. Zachariah and Elias Chukwuemeka Ngwu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The question of land has increasingly become a major source of conflicts in many parts of Africa. In Nigeria, claims of rights over landholdings and justice administration of land disputes, though of great concern, have received inadequate attention in the literature. In this context, this paper examines Nozickian distributive justice vis-à-vis land-related conflicts in the Panda Development Area (PDA), Nasarawa state, Nigeria. It focuses on perennial delays-cum-unfavourable rectification of unjust landholdings as drivers of conflict in the area. The study employs the survey method of data collection using key-informant interviews. It adopts a qualitative descriptive method to analyse the data. The paper found that over 80% of the population in the study area rely on agriculture, and that there are numerous contestations over land use and ownership. Unfortunately, still, adjudication of these cases lingers unnecessarily, resulting in distrust, antagonisms and violent confrontations. The study recommends fundamental reform of Nigeria’s justice system as it relates to land matters to ensure more equitable distribution of land. Such reform should include the introduction of special courts as well as the mainstreaming of traditional institutions, local and ad-hoc arbitrators into the dispute resolution mechanisms of land-related cases.
- Topic:
- Development, Justice, Peacebuilding, and Land Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
149. The Transitional Justice Policy of Ethiopia and its Relevance for Peacebuilding
- Author:
- Yohannes Haile Getahun
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- This article deals with the peacebuilding impact of the Transitional Justice Policy of Ethiopia (TJPE) through an explanatory case study approach that contextualises the discourse of transitional justice and peace within the specific context of Ethiopia. Drawing on existing literature on the peace implications of transitional justice systems, the study develops a framework that emphasises the need for a balanced approach that integrates retributive and restorative justice mechanisms. Foregrounding the TJPE, the article identifies both prospects and limitations. The processes of truth-seeking and accountability for past, recent and present human rights abuses, fighting the culture of impunity and building social trust are the primary prospects. However, certain factors could undermine the peacebuilding contributions of the transitional justice programme. These factors include political capture, the politics of striking mutual innocence pacts, predicaments of political legitimacy, harmonising reconciliation and justice and ongoing conflicts. Generally, beyond the textual and institutional design, the political system and its dynamics have much bearing on the effectiveness of the TJPE in bringing about durable peace.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, Impunity, Reconciliation, Peacebuilding, and Political Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
150. The Domestic Impact of the ICERD on TRC-Related Prosecutions in South Africa: A Story of Lost Opportunities for Post-Apartheid Justice
- Author:
- Ntokozo Sibanyoni
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD/the Convention) is a response to apartheid in pre-democratic South Africa. Article 6 obliges states to provide reparations to victims of discrimination. However, 31 years into its democracy, South Africa is haunted by a poor record of prosecuting apartheid. While popular discussions focus on the failure of the government to prosecute, this article focuses on the extent of the Convention’s domestic impact on the prosecutions. This contribution uses a working definition of domestic impact, which emphasises the efforts of all stakeholders in the state’s reporting process. The contribution relies on data collected through desktop research and semi-structured interviews with people working on race-related issues, to assess the extent to which article 6 of the Convention has been realized. Arguing that the Convention has made a delayed and limited impact on prosecutions, the article discusses factors that have hindered impact and provides recommendations towards the realisation of article 6 of the Convention.
- Topic:
- Apartheid, Transitional Justice, Justice, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa