Content Type: Journal Article / Publication Year: within 3 Years

201. In Jordan, Trump is a Divisive Figure

Author:: Laila Shadid
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Before Trump officially took office, some Jordanians believed that he was the “lesser of two evils”. Now, two months into his presidency, Trump has few fans in Amman
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

202. Longer Sticks and Shorter Carrots: How the U.S. is Changing its Engagement in MENA

Author:: Amr Adly
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The United States’ approach to achieving international hegemony is shifting away from trade and investments back toward bombs and missiles
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Investment, Trade, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

203. The View from Africa Before and After the U.S. Elections—Q&A with Mark Deets

Author:: Omar Auf and Mark Deets
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Trump’s re-election brought massive changes to many aspects of the United States and the world. What led to Trump regaining the presidency? What will the reverberations look like in West Africa? Omar Auf sat with historian Mark Deets to find out
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Interview, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and United States of America

204. CTC Sentinel: January 2025 Issue

Author:: Paul Cruickshank, Julika Enslin, Nicolas Stockhammer, and Colin Clarke
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: France24’s Wassim Nasr is the only international journalist to spend time with Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa both before and after the fall of Assad. In the spring of 2023, Nasr traveled to Idlib where he met with al-Sharaa (who at the time was widely known by his jihadi kunya Abu Muhammad al-Julani). Nasr’s insights detailed in “Journey to Idlib” in the May 2023 issue of CTC Sentinel on al-Sharaa’s ideological journey away from the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida toward what might be termed pragmatic Islamism were invaluable to international security analysts. Late last year, shortly after the fall of the Assad regime, Nasr traveled back to Syria where he met with al-Sharaa for a second time and interviewed him. Speaking to CTC Sentinel about the trip in his follow-up feature interview “Journey to Damascus,” Nasr says: “Comparing the man I saw in 2023 with the man I saw in late 2024, he was the same. He spoke very slowly, very quietly. It was the same impression I had a year and a half ago, which was very surprising to many people. I was very cautious a year and a half ago, asking myself, ‘Okay, should I take what he is saying for granted?’ But I was reassured. Because I saw that when they took Aleppo, [when] they took Damascus, actually he applied what he said to me a year and a half ago. It can’t be dismissed as just talk.” In the feature article, Nicolas Stockhammer and Colin Clarke examine the Islamic State-inspired plot to attack a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna that was thwarted in August 2024. They write that the plot “underlined that Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), which appears to have inspired the lead plotter, remains an enduring threat, evolving its tactics and strategy while focusing on radicalizing followers and supporters through relentless online propaganda. The suspects in the Vienna plot epitomized the interplay of online and offline radicalization, with extremist content on social media platforms like TikTok playing a pivotal role.” In the second interview, Wassim Nasr provides insights from his interview last fall with Mohamed (Amadou) Koufa, the number two in JNIM, al-Qa`ida’s affiliate in the Sahel. For Nasr, the questions Koufa chose not to answer were even more significant than his answers. “In my assessment, Koufa’s refusal to speak about al-Qa`ida was significant. I think it’s very possible that JNIM is at least seriously discussing and maybe preparing to break from al-Qa`ida. Since the last third of December, JNIM has stopped referring to AQIM and stopped directing followers to the AQIM media outlet Al-Izza. … It looks like they might be preparing the landscape for a split with al-Qa`ida in the same way that Jabhat al-Nusra—the predecessor group of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the group now in power in Syria—split with al-Qa`ida.” Nasr says that it is possible that having seen HTS come to power in Syria after it split with al-Qa`ida and having seen al-Sharaa in recent weeks win broad international acceptance, JNIM may be preparing to start on a similar path away from the global jihadi group.
Topic:: Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Bashar al-Assad, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Syria, and Austria

205. CTC Sentinel: March 2025 Issue

Author:: Don Rassler, Yannick Veilleux-Lepage, Julika Enslin, Aaron Y. Zelin, and Jake Dulligan
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The March issue focuses in particular on the drone threat. In the feature article, Don Rassler and Yannick Veilleux-Lepage examine the evolution of terrorist drone usage and forecast its future trajectory in light of the tactical and technological innovations emerging from the Russo-Ukrainian War. They write that “the conflict has become a critical ‘innovation hub’ for drone warfare, accelerating advancements in the scale, speed, and range of drone operations. These developments are not only transforming the modern battlefield but also creating new opportunities for violent extremist organizations (VEOs) to enhance their operational capabilities.” They assess that “in particular, the war has normalized large-scale drone deployment, demonstrating the feasibility of launching coordinated drone swarms and phased attacks capable of overwhelming existing defenses” and note that the potential future pairing of high-speed First-Person View (FPV) drones with emerging technologies such as AI-assisted targeting “could significantly increase the precision and impact of future attacks.” In a similar vein, Jake Dulligan, Laura Freeman, Austin Phoenix, and Bradley Davis, in assessing the threat posed by commercial drones, write that the biggest concern “is that drone swarms could dramatically increase the impact of bad actor drone operations, be it kinetic strikes, ISR, or psychological warfare.” This month’s interview is with Dr. Christian Klos, the Director General of Public Security at Germany’s Federal Ministry of Interior and Community. He says that “when it comes to the external threat, I would agree with the assessment that ISIS-K is in Germany as well. What we observe from the intelligence side is that there are clear indications that the group intends to conduct attacks in Europe, and this can also include Germany and therefore we are very much aware of this threat, and we have seen also travel activities. So, it’s not just some minor indications.” Aaron Zelin assesses the new Syrian government’s efforts to counter the Islamic State, Hezbollah, and the captagon trade. He writes: “Unlike the Assad regime—which did little to fight the Islamic State, was closely aligned with Hezbollah, and produced captagon on an industrial scale—HTS in its guise as the new government of Syria is taking on these challenges assertively, and has a significant track record in doing so previously. Not only are these efforts a benefit to Syrian society and the security and stability of the country, but they also align with the interests of the United States and U.S. regional allies.” Alexandre Rodde and Justin Olmstead examine the evolution of vehicular ramming attacks and prevention efforts. They write that “when it comes to indicators and warnings of future attacks, the demonstration effect created by high-casualty vehicle-ramming attacks has in the past seemingly produced a surge in copycat attacks, which means the security agencies should be particularly vigilant given the recent uptick in high-profile attacks, including the New Orleans attack.”
Topic:: Intelligence, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Weapons, Drones, Islamic State, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Public Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

206. CTC Sentinel: April 2025 Issue

Author:: Michael Knights, Paul Cruickshank, Ayush Verma, Imtiaz Baloch, and Riccardo Valle
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In this month’s feature article, Michael Knights illuminates the nexus between Iraq’s oil sector and the Iran threat network. He writes: “The Iran threat network suffered grievous blows in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and Iran itself in 2024, and this has arguably made oil-rich Iraq even more important to the network. Facing renewed maximum pressure from the United States, Iran needs not only Iraq’s terrorist fundraising potential but also its value as a ‘laundromat’ through which Iranian energy products can be fraudulently relabeled as Iraqi exports. Using their control of the al-Sudani government, Iran-backed terrorist groups and militias are developing significant new strands of threat financing using Iraq’s oil sector, which combine to provide billions of dollars of illicit value each year. Iraq is thus emerging as Iran’s best bet for neutering the Trump administration’s renewed maximum pressure campaign.” He notes that “U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations are no longer content to steal oil, only to have smuggling businessmen realize most of the profits. Instead, terrorist organizations have muscled into this value-addition segment of the oil market in recent years, with AAH [Asaib Ahl al-Haq] and KH [Kataib Hezbollah] leading the pack.” Our interview is with Charlie Winter, the co-founder and chief research officer of ExTrac AI, an AI-assisted intelligence platform that identifies, maps, and forecasts geopolitical risk, including in the counterterrorism space. He states: “Our USP pivots around accessing, ingesting, and processing high-relevance publicly available information and data from hard-to-reach parts of the internet that reflects the online and offline activities and psychological operations of various non-state and state threat actors. And through our platform, which is both a web and mobile app, we provide both access to that data and the ability to generate insight from it rapidly—and we do that using a range of different kinds of automation, machine learning, [and] artificial intelligence.” He adds: “We essentially have built our system to let machines do what they do best and let human analysts do what they do best, and enable the analysts to spend a lot more time performing the highest-value tasks in the intelligence cycle.” Ayush Verma, Imtiaz Baloch, and Riccardo Valle examine the Baloch insurgency in Pakistan. They write: “The Baloch insurgency in Pakistan has intensified sharply since the beginning of 2025, marked by sophisticated attacks such as the Jaffar Express hijacking by Baloch Liberation Army-Jeeyand faction (BLA-J) on March 11, 2025, which resulted in the kidnapping of more than 400 passengers and death of at least 26 hostages. Groups like BLA-J, Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), and Baloch Liberation Army-Azad faction (BLA-A) continue to deploy suicide bombers, including women, and temporarily seize territories, targeting Chinese nationals and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. The insurgency’s regional spillover, especially into Iran, and competition for resources and prominence among factions of the insurgency further complicate Pakistan’s internal security.” They add: “Without a political resolution addressing long-standing grievances, the insurgency threatens to escalate, destabilizing both national and regional security.”
Topic:: Oil, Terrorism, Insurgency, Artificial Intelligence, Regional Security, Threat Assessment, and Transnational Threats
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Iraq, South Asia, and Middle East

207. CTC Sentinel: May 2025 Issue

Author:: Daisy Muibu, Yayedior Mbengue, Sean Morrow, Don Rassler, and Briar Bundy
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In the May 2025 feature article, Daisy Muibu and Yayedior Mbengue examine the evolving counterterrorism challenge in Somalia. They write that “nearly three years after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the security landscape remains precarious. Al-Shabaab has resurged, coordination between federal and Puntland forces is limited despite Islamic State-Somalia’s growing global remit, and the future of the African Union mission is uncertain. These trends are driven by political discord, a fragmented national landscape, donor fatigue, operational challenges, and al-Shabaab’s resilience.” Our interview is with Christine Abizaid, the former director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center. She emphasizes that: “The CT business is still a needles-in-the-haystack business; it’s still one piece of information that can open up a whole new threat network. You have to be digging into and accessing multiple sources of information, collaborating with multiple partners who see things in different ways.” Aymenn Al-Tamimi charts the rise, fall, and dissolution of al-Qa`ida’s loyalist group in Syria Hurras al-Din. He writes that: “The primary ongoing concern from a counterterrorism perspective is that regardless of Hurras al-Din’s own weakness, individuals who were members of the group, particularly leading figures, may try to coordinate with other members of al-Qa`ida or other jihadis outside Syria for the purpose of organizing terrorist attacks abroad.” Saif Tahir and Amira Jadoon examine the geographical origins, mobility patterns, and demographic characteristics of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants through an analysis of 615 profiles from the organization’s own martyrdom commemorative publications spanning 2006-2025. Julika Enslin outlines the evolution of the Islamist terror threat landscape in Germany since 2020 by taking an in-depth look at all nine executed Islamist terrorist attacks and the 20 publicly reported thwarted attack plots during that time. A personal note: Over the last 10 years, it has been the privilege of a lifetime to serve as the Editor-in-Chief of CTC Sentinel to showcase the best and brightest scholars and practitioners in our field. It’s time for me to pass the baton. The publication will be in great hands with my brilliant colleagues Kristina Hummel and Don Rassler. I look forward to continuing my close association with the Combating Terrorism Center and CTC Sentinel. The faculty and staff at the center, past and present, are the very best of America. I greatly appreciate the trust that directors Colonel Sean Morrow, Brian Dodwell, and Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Bryan Price placed in me. Above all, I would like to express my thanks to our extraordinary contributors. They have greatly helped the counterterrorism enterprise. Who thinks wins.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Al-Shabaab, African Union, Salafi-Jihadism, and Hurras al-Din
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Syria, North America, Somalia, and United States of America

208. Introducing Hafiz Pashayev’s An Ambassador’s Manifesto

Author:: Damjan Krnjević Mišković
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: There is a word in the Azerbaijani language—ağsaqqal—which means something like a wise and respected elder of the community from whom one traditionally seeks advice. Hafiz Pashayev is widely acknowledged as the ağsaqqal of the country’s diplomatic service. And the book we are here to celebrate is an important element in explaining this status he deservedly enjoys. Now, before Hafiz m. came to be widely regarded as the ağsaqqal of Azerbaijani diplomacy, he became a founder (fondatore) of “new modes and orders,” as a Florentine political philosopher of the highest rank memorably put it centuries ago [NM, D I:pr.1]. In fact, Hafiz m. founded two such new modes and orders: Azerbaijan’s diplomatic presence in Washington in November 1992, and, here in Baku, the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in March 2006, which in January 2014 was granted a charter and thus officially transformed, following the founder’s original intention, into ADA University. We are here this evening to discuss his memoir of this first founding, titled An Ambassador’s Manifesto. A memoir of the second—or at least on the pedagogical and state‑building logic informing this second founding—is yet to come.
Topic:: Diplomacy and Memoir
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Azerbaijan

209. Climate Change, Vulnerable Groups, and Data-Driven Policymaking

Author:: Selahattin Selsah Pasali
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: More than four in five people in Asia and the Pacific reportedly face multi‑hazard risks associated with slow or sudden onset climate events, according to the latest Asia‑Pacific Disaster Report published by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). Many existing hotspots of climate‑related multi‑hazards are forecast to intensify. Individuals residing in these hotspots, often already low‑income and with limited access to basic services and infrastructure, will likely be exposed to more frequent and intense sudden‑ and slow‑onset natural disasters. Noteworthy is the assessment that migrants, refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and stateless persons residing in many parts of these vast geographic areas reportedly face even more daunting challenges in this category, due to their vulnerable legal status, limited coping capacity, and access to basic services and opportunities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Inequality, Displacement, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:: Asia

210. Progress in Ending Statelessness in Europe

Author:: Sam Mosallai
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Europe is home to almost 500,000 stateless people or people with undetermined nationality, mainly due to the dissolution of the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia over three decades ago. Other causes of statelessness in Europe include the lack of safeguards to prevent children from being born stateless, gaps in universal birth registration, and, to a lesser extent, the deprivation of nationality as a counterterrorism measure. Many Roma, particularly those residing in Southeastern Europe, are stateless or at risk of statelessness due to persistent discrimination against them. Additionally, due to the lack of dedicated statelessness determination procedures found in many countries in Europe, many stateless migrants cannot enjoy the rights to which they are entitled under international law.
Topic:: Discrimination, Nationality, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Europe

211. A Region without Statelessness?: How Central Asia Proved It Is Possible

Author:: Sergiu Gaina
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Imagine living in the country where you were born but never having the right to call it home. No passport, no identity document, no access to education, healthcare, or legal employment. Every visit to a government office ends the same way: “We have no record of you.” For hundreds of thousands of people in Central Asia, this was their reality. Statelessness—where a person is not recognized as a national (citizen) by any country—left them in limbo, unable to fully participate in society. It meant exclusion from essential services, vulnerability to exploitation, and a life spent on the margins, with no clear path to change. But things have changed. Over the past decade or so, Central Asia has led the world in ending statelessness. The region has solved one‑third of all statelessness cases globally—a clear demonstration that with sufficient political will and strategic action, this problem can be eradicated. Since 2014, more than 220,000 formerly stateless people in Central Asia have acquired nationality (citizenship), making it one of the most successful regions in the world in reducing stateless populations.
Topic:: Citizenship, Services, Nationality, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan

212. Uncharted Rebellion: The Shifting Frontiers of Left-Wing Extremism

Author:: José Pedro Zúquete
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: For readers of Baku Dialogues, a journal dedicated to fostering intellectual exchange across the Silk Road region, the study of left‑wing extremism (LWE) offers a lens into global ideological currents that resonate even in this historically rich and geopolitically and geoeconomically significant area. The Silk Road region, stretching from the South Caucasus to Central Asia, has long been a crossroads of cultures, ideas, and political movements. Today, it faces many of the same challenges of radicalization and extremism that afflict other parts of the world, though often in unique local forms.
Topic:: Security, Geopolitics, Leftist Politics, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Central Asia and South Caucasus

213. Sharks in the Muddy Waters: Terrorism and Mounting Global Disorder

Author:: Jahangir E. Arasli
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The international system is in increasing disarray, thanks partly to systemic and structural factors. The strategic competition between major powers and groups of states is growing sharply. One particular consequence of this process is an escalation in scale and scope of shooting wars and armed conflicts (e.g., in Europe and the Middle East) and other antagonisms on the edge of war (e.g., Taiwan, the South China Sea, and South Asia). Moreover, the existing geopolitical alignments are shifting oddly. Neo‑revisionism, expansionist foreign policies, and advanced territorial claims militarize international relations. With a reoccurrence of “utility of force,” the standing norms of international law are frying, and WMD proliferation regimes and arms control treaties are crumbling. Trade wars and deteriorating growth prospects are increasing strains and risks to the global economy and individual states. Political and ideological polarization in societies, institutional decay, inefficiency of elites, and the rise of populism affect states’ stability. The challenges of climate change and emerging technologies remain unanswered and unsettled.
Topic:: Terrorism, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and International System
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

214. A Proposal for a Trans-Caspian Development Bank

Author:: Carlos Roa, Charles Yockey, and Ibrahim Mammadov
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Diplomacy is not alchemy. Just as lead cannot be magically turned into gold, grand visions require practical tools to become reality. The Middle Corridor—a trade and transport route stretching from Central Asia across the Caspian Sea to the South Caucasus and onward to Türkiye and the European continent—is one such vision. The corridor has captured the imagination of policymakers and strategists, who seek to reorient global trade flows, diversify energy routes, and diminish dependencies on geopolitical chokepoints like the Suez Canal. Yet, for all its potential, the Middle Corridor still remains more of an ambition than a reality, constrained by insufficient infrastructure, fragmented political coordination, and—perhaps most importantly, a lack of cohesive financial strategy. For the Middle Corridor to succeed as a vital artery of international commerce, it requires more than bilateral agreements and fragmented investments. The project requires a dedicated institution capable of bridging its diverse stakeholders, financing transformative projects, and aligning growth with the twenty‑first century’s imperatives like digital innovation and climate adaptation. A Trans‑Caspian Development Bank (TCDB) could provide precisely the kind of focused and flexible framework needed to turn the Middle Corridor into a thriving economic corridor. By pooling resources and expertise from member states, private investors, and international partners, the TCDB would fill the critical gap between lofty ambitions and actionable progress.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Trade, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:: Central Asia and South Caucasus

215. Assessing the Achievements of COP29

Author:: Elnur Soltanov
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Azerbaijan became the first country from the Silk Road region to host an annual session of the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change—in this case, the 29th session. Hence, COP29. This took place in Baku between 11 and 22 November 2024 and had something like 76,000 registered participants. And Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has a document that says that COP29 “was attended by representatives of 196 countries and nearly 200 international, regional, and other organizations. More than 80 heads of state and government participated at the World Leaders’ Climate Action Summit organized within the framework of COP29 on 12-13 November 2024.” So, evidently, this was hard to pull-off successfully.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Azerbaijan

216. Achieving Minimum Viable Cyber Resilience: A Leadership Top Ten “To-Do” List

Author:: Steve Hill
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: I t is a reflection of the growing maturity of the cybersecurity industry that when the UK’s Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Pat McFadden, a senior cabinet minister responsible for national security, claimed in a speech to the November 2024 NATO Cyber Defence Conference that Russia “can turn the lights off for millions,” he was roundly criticized for hyperbole. Pragmatism has replaced alarmism as the driver for persuading the state and the C-suite to invest in cybersecurity. The world has neither ever been more complex nor more fast-moving. But that is not the same as saying that the world is more dangerous. The same inter-connectedness that creates supply-chain fragility also acts as a disincentive for governments whose priorities are primarily inward-looking (domestic stability and growth) to escalate conflicts to outright regional or global warfare that will likely undermine that domestic agenda. We see therefore brinkmanship and “grey conflict” taking place throughout the world. This includes targeted assassinations, arson attacks, disruption of underseas cables, drone activity, social media election influence campaigns, and all kinds of cyber-attacks.
Topic:: NATO, Cybersecurity, Gray Zone, Resilience, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and North America

217. PfP Enters its Fourth Decade: A Journey Undertaken with Azerbaijan

Author:: Rick Fawn
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Azerbaijan was one of the first countries to join NATO’s major outreach program, Partnership for Peace (PfP), upon its establishment at the Alliance’s summit in Brussels on 10-11 January 1994—a year that also marked the fifty-fifth anniversary of the founding of the Alliance itself. This happened on 4 May 1994, when President Heydar Aliyev came to Brussels to sign the Partnership for Peace Framework Document, an event that took place about a year after he returned to Baku to begin pulling the country back from the edge of total collapse. Surely there was an element of deliberate sequencing involved, for the very next day after signing this document, on 5 May 1994, a final agreement was reached on a Russianbrokered ceasefire to end the First Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And only four months later, in September 1994, the negotiations on the Contract of the Century were successfully concluded that would facilitate the export westwards of Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbons rather than through Russia. This last development had been predicated—and again unlikely to be coincidental timing—by the Clinton Administration’s abandonment of its “Russia First” policy, which had elevated Moscow’s interests above those of other post-Soviet successor states.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Azerbaijan

218. Training Diplomats in Azerbaijan: Past Successes and Future Plans

Author:: Fariz Ismailzade
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of Azerbaijan as one of 15 newly independent republics in 1991, the development of a sovereign and professional diplomatic service became of utmost importance and urgency. Doing so, it was understood, was a necessary attribute and instrument for pursuing a country’s foreign policy agenda, which at minimum should aim to strengthen sovereignty, minimize external risks, develop bilateral and multilateral relations, and properly position a given country on the global map of nations. Yet apart from Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, Azerbaijan and the remaining 11 former Soviet republics had limited experience with a truly professional and competent diplomatic service. The Soviet Union granted little authority to the ‘ethnic republics’ and provided them with no autonomy in foreign relations. Consequently, the offices of the republic-level Ministries of Foreign Affairs remained quite small and primarily handled protocol responsibilities for foreign dignitaries and guests traveling from Moscow to those parts of the country. The one in Baku, for instance, was established in 1944 as the People’s Commissariat of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Training, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Azerbaijan

219. Breaking Free from Parochial Geopolitical Complexity: Azerbaijan’s Quest for a Third Path

Author:: Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Though geographically small at 186,043 square kilometers—and dwarfed by neighboring Iran, Türkiye, and especially Russia—the South Caucasus is home to over 50 distinct ethnic groups, encompassing a diverse tapestry of languages, religions, and cultures. Another unique characteristic for a region of this size is its consistent role as a microcosm of global geopolitics. This has been the case since the region’s three countries regained their respective independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, with each aligning with different geopolitical centers. While Georgia pursued Euro-Atlantic integration, Armenia aligned with Russia within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Azerbaijan, adopting a balanced foreign policy, opted for neutrality, maintaining equidistance and cultivating friendly, mutually-beneficial relations with both Russia and the West.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Diversity, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

220. Washington’s Opportunity in Central Asia (and the South Caucasus)

Author:: Stephen Blank
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: As the Trump Administration conducts a global survey of strategic opportunities for the United States, it would be well advised to view Central Asia and the South Caucasus (the core subregions of what this journal’s Editorial Statement calls the “Silk Road region” and what is commonly still called “Eurasia” in some circles) as areas where a creative, new approach would yield lasting strategic gains—both for America and those states themselves. To be sure, this region is not and will not become a major priority or a vital interest for the United States—nor is that necessary. But its importance in world politics as an area of strategic competition among many rival states, including Russia and China and several aspirant and rising middle powers, is increasing. Therefore, it should be understood to be beneficial for all the states in Central Asia and the South Caucasus that Washington both enhance and sustain at a higher level its comprehensive, multi-dimensional engagement with them because only America can provide or convene many of the public goods they need.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Central Asia, South Caucasus, and United States of America

221. A Transforming Eurasian Order

Author:: Feng Yujun
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: I n recent years, driven by multiple factors, the international order has been undergoing rapid adjustment, evolution, and reshaping. In Eurasia, the Russia-Ukraine war has triggered persisting upheaval, acting as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in the regional order. Its impact has prompted historic changes in power dynamics, mutual perceptions, national identities, and strategic orientations among Eurasian states—shifts unmatched since the Soviet Union’s dissolution over three decades ago. These transformations are set to profoundly influence the regional order, becoming a central element in current and future global developments.
Topic:: Post-Soviet Space, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

222. The New Geopolitical Scramble for Corridors

Author:: Velina Tchakarova
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The geopolitical landscape in winter 2024- 2025 is marked by significant transformation, uncertainty, and fierce competition for influence. The geopolitical hotspots of this new contest are most visible in the regions that bridge Europe and Asia—what the editors of Baku Dialogues call the “Silk Road region.” Central to this dynamic is the growing intersection of interests between major regional players against the backdrop of a Cold War 2.0, putting the West against what I was the first to call the “DragonBear” alliance of China and Russia. These corridors are not just infrastructural undertakings; they are the arteries of global power, trade, and connectivity, reflecting deeper geopolitical ambitions and contestations. This extensive analysis elaborates on today’s most significant connectivity projects, exploring their strategic implications and the new power dynamics they are fostering. In the traditional sense, empires have always relied on transport and trade corridors to project power and expand influence. From the ancient Silk Roads to the West’s colonial sea routes, the ability to control the flow of goods and resources has often equated to geopolitical dominance. Today, this principle remains unchanged, though the scale and stakes have reached unprecedented levels.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, and International Competition
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia

223. GTB v Spain: The Right to a Birth Certificate Under the European Convention on Human Rights

Author:: Cameron Nye
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: On 16November 2023, the European Court of Human Rights (‘Court’) issued a landmark judgment in the case of GTB v Spain (‘GTB’).1The case concerned the prolonged delay by Spanish authorities in assisting the applicant, Mr GTB, with registering his birth and obtaining identity documents, despite being aware of his inability to do so. In a first for the Court, itwasheld that art 8 of the Convention on the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (‘ECHR’),2which protects the right to private and family life, includes a right to birth registration. Accordingly, the Court found a violation against the Spanish authorities for their failure to act diligently to secure this right.3Birth registration is vital to establish a child’s legal identity, family ties and often their nationality, all of which are important for accessing fundamental rights. Children who lack birth registration can face significant difficulties in their education, healthcare and personal lives. In some cases, these children are also stateless or at the risk thereof.4Nevertheless, significant barriers to birth registration persist across Europe and other regions. The GTB judgment has clear potential to place the issue of birth registration and access to identity documents at the heart of the Court’s progressive development of art 8. The Court not only established that access to documentation is a substantive right under the ECHR, but also articulated this through a noteworthy emphasis on the right to have one’s identity recognised in law, particularly where children are concerned.5The judgment also takes a step further in the Court’s interpretation of art 8, considering as its central legal issue whether states have an obligation to go beyond standard procedures to secure an individual’s ability to develop their sense of identity.6While the Court’s analysis raisesvarious questions,particularly whether the obligation exists only as a remedy for parental inaction,it nevertheless establishes several principles that advance the protections of art 8 concerning an individual’s access to a legal identity.
Topic:: Identity, European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), Statelessness, and Documentation
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

224. Recognition of the Status of Stateless Persons and Right of Residence for Palestinians in Belgium: Applying the Principle of res judicata to Avoid Divergences among Courts

Author:: Giulia Bittoni
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The recognition of the status of stateless Palestinians within the European Union (‘EU’) is complex and sensitive, notably due to the challenges in determining whether Palestine qualifies as a state. Moreover, not all EU Member states grant a right of residence to stateless individuals. In some states, including Belgium, recognising statelessness does not automatically confer a right of residence, creating a gap between statelessness recognition and thisright.1This discrepancy has led to numerous legal actions in Belgian civil courts to seek this residence right.Until August 2024, Belgium recognisedstateless statussolely through judicial procedure.More specifically,until 2017, the Tribunal de première instance (‘Tribunalof First Instance’)held jurisdiction in these matters. Since 3 August 2017, jurisdiction has shifted to the Tribunal de la familleet de la jeunesse(‘The Family and Juvenile Tribunal’) based on the residence of the applicant.
Topic:: European Union, Palestinians, Statelessness, and Aliens Act
Political Geography:: Europe, Palestine, and Belgium

225. Statelessness, Gender, and Intersectionality in Bjorkquist et al v Attorney General of Canada

Author:: Heather Alexander and Jocelyn Kane
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Bjorkquist et alv AttorneyGeneral of Canada, decided in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice on 19 December 2023, is a landmark ruling overturning the so-called ‘second generation cut off’in Canadian citizenship law that prohibitedCanadian citizens born abroad from automatically passing their Canadian citizenship to their children if thelatterwere also born abroad.1The ruling therefore establishes the rights of ‘lost Canadians’to Canadian citizenship.Applicants and the Court made several important contributions not only to the right to a nationality under Canadian law, but also to the global fight against statelessness by lending support to the concept of intersectional discrimination in the context of the right to citizenship. Experts have hailed it as a groundbreaking decision for the principle of intersectionality in discrimination.2A further contribution was made concerning the ability of stateless persons to have standing before national courts despite their non-citizen status. Yet,despite the Court acknowledging that the law in question causes the risk of statelessness,3the case did notdirectly address Canada’s international obligations to prevent and resolve statelessness. Nor did applicants argue, nor the Court independently find, that the creation of statelessness is a Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms(‘Charter’) violation.4Nevertheless, the case will help to close a serious and gendered gap in Canadian law that was producing statelessness.
Topic:: Citizenship, Discrimination, Intersectionality, Gender, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

226. Towards Equitable, Transparent and Evidence-based Malaysian Citizenship Law Amendments: Taking Stock of Remaining Risks of Statelessness and Exclusion

Author:: Rodziana bt Mohamed Razali and Chin Chin Sia
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: In this commentary, we critically reflect on the recentcitizenship amendmentspassedby the Malaysian House of Representatives via the Constitution (Amendment) Bill 2024on 17 October2024.1Wealso examine the critical issues inherent within several facets of Malaysia’s citizenship frameworkthat have been deemed regressive for the potential heightening of statelessness and exclusion from citizenship among several impacted categories of persons. We argue that equitable and effective reforms to the citizenship regime are not just necessary but also encouraging. These reforms are needed to mitigate the risk of statelessness and its negative repercussions in accordance with art 15 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,2in which everyone has the right to nationality. Restrictive citizenship lawswhich do not align with art 15 have undesirable consequences for families,impactinglife choices such as where individuals may choose to live, work, study or even where they have children and raise a family. We then recommend using a balanced and equitable approach, supported by credible data, evidence and transparent processes, to reassess the revision of the citizenship laws for the future sustainability of Malaysia as a democratic and progressive country.
Topic:: Law, Citizenship, Exclusion, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Malaysia and Southeast Asia

227. World Conference on Statelessness 2024 – Key Takeaways

Author:: Subin Mulmi and Jenna Biedscheid
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The Second World Conference on Statelessness was convened at Taylor’s University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from 26 to 29 February 2024.1It was co-organised by the Institute on Statelessness and Inclusion (ISI), Nationality for All (NFA), Development of Human Resources for Rural Areas Malaysia (DHRRA), Family Frontiers (‘FF’) and supported by the Human Rights Commission of Malaysia (SUHAKAM).The Conference was the biggest convening of the statelessness field to date, attended by 450 in-person participants and over 100 online participants from all over the world. Around 30% of the participants who responded to a voluntary survey identified themselves as persons with lived experience of statelessness.2This shows a significant increase from the first World Conference in 2019, where only 10% of participants had lived experience.3In contrast to the first Conference being held in The Hague, the venue moving to Malaysia is reflective of greater accessibility and representation, with the Asia Pacific holding the largest population of stateless persons in the world.4Over the course of three and a half days, the Conference featured plenary sessions, panel discussions, workshops and skill labs focusing on the three themes of ‘Solidarity, Knowledge and Change’. The Conference also featured the Immersive Arts and Culture Programmetitled‘Think of Others’,which was an integral part of the event.5This piece captures some of the key conversations that took place at the Conference and provides a reflective analysis from the perspective of two members of the organising team. Their analysis delves into broad takeaways that affect civil society and the statelessness ecosystem through the three themes of the Conference, with the purpose of targeting a diverse set of participants. The findings are based on the notes taken by the designated notetakers and the recorded videos of the plenary sessions.
Topic:: Development, Rural, Human Resources, Inclusion, Statelessness, and World Conference on Statelessness
Political Geography:: Global Focus

228. Stateless Persons in the Czech Republic: Filling the Gaps without Good Faith?

Author:: Alžbeta Králová and Linda Janků
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: ‘I feel like I am nobody. That’s it. A stateless person is nobody. Someone who does not exist. This is how I feel.’1Thissense of invisibility or non-existenceasillustrated by the wordsof one of Czechia’s (more commonly known as the Czech Republic)stateless persons is often associated with the phenomenon of statelessness. What reinforces this feeling is that State authorities themselves treat stateless persons as invisible. This only intensifies the disintegration of their personal and social identity. Furthermore, states not only ignore the plight of stateless persons, but they also seem to disregard their international commitments to this extremely vulnerable group.2This includes the Czech Republic, which appears reluctant to uphold the principle of good faith while interpreting its international obligations towards stateless persons.Statelessness in the Czech Republic today appears in the migratory context, similarly to other European countries. It is estimated that up to 1,500 stateless individuals live in the Czech Republic, including both those residing legally and illegally.3However, the issue has received very little attention and has long been perceived as non-existent, due to both a lack of public awareness and the Czech government’s reluctance to address it. For several decades, stateless persons have been caught in a cycle of lacking legal pathways to regularise their stay, facing expulsion proceedings and repeated detentions.
Topic:: Citizenship, Statelessness, and New Aliens Act
Political Geography:: Czech Republic

229. Reflections on Statelessness Awareness Forum (Europe) 2024

Author:: Aleksejs Ivashuk, Jessica Schmieder, and Aleksandra Semeriak Gavrilenok
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Statelessness Awareness Forum (Europe), or SAF(E), is the firstever international forum hosted by a stateless-led organisation, Apatride Network.1The organisation is one of the biggest stateless-led organisations in the world, working to address statelessness in the European Union(‘EU’) byfocusing on awareness raising, legal assistance and stakeholder bridge-building, and impact initiatives that tackle daily challenges faced by stateless people.2These daily challenges may include issues in documentation, employment, banking access, freedom of movement, lack of representation in the media and other relevant spaces. SAF(E) is designed by Apatride Network as a continuous, annual event that takes on the challenge of the lack of systemic awarenessraising on statelessness. The first edition was held from 20 to 24March2024 in Alicante, Spain. It brought together leading experts in statelessness, including experts from stateless-led organisations, representation from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (‘UNHCR’), the Institute on Statelessness and Inclusion (ISI), the Hungarian Helsinki Committee,and the European Network on Statelessness (‘ENS’). This reflection piece is meant to highlight the significance of SAF(E), the lessons drawn and learnedfrom the forumand the impact it has had on addressing statelessness.
Topic:: European Union and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Europe

230. Reframing the Windrush Scandal as an International Statelessness Crisis

Author:: Eve Hayes de Kalaf
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The 2018 so-termed ‘Windrush Scandal’ highlighted the discriminatory actions of the British State against Commonwealth migrants who, having legally settled in the United Kingdom in the postwar period, found their right to remain wrongly challenged by the Home Office. The controversy led to threats of deportation and incarceration for some, while others found they were locked out of the country indefinitely. This article examines some of the ways in which racialised and minority groups can encounter ‘statelessness-like’ experiences in their everyday interactions with the state, as well as exploring some of the far-reaching and unexpected consequences of measures that have historically attempted to limit migration from the Caribbean and the broader Commonwealth to the United Kingdom. Drawing on extensive oral history interviews conducted as part of the project ‘The Windrush Scandal in a Transnational and Commonwealth Context’, this paper argues that the Scandal provides statelessness scholars with a much-needed window into the distinct ways Global North countries have sought to prevent migrants and their descendants, many of whom see themselves as citizens, from full enjoyment of their rights. Ultimately, the author proposes that the (re)positioning of the Windrush Scandal as a crisis worthy of international attention will firmly embed the inclusion of this controversy into the field of statelessness studies, while opening new opportunities for cultural, political and legal exploration of the broader ways in which people’s claims to citizenship recognition can be thwarted, overridden or ignored by the state.
Topic:: Migrants, Statelessness, Commonwealth of Nations, and Windrush
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Caribbean

231. Maintaining Regional Stability Amid Complex Regime Transitions in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities for COMESA Member States

Author:: Mumo Nzau
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: With a market reach of approximately 600 million people and straddling 21 countries, the COMESA bloc occupies a vast chunk of the continent. Contemporary literature on the region generally points to huge macroeconomic potential in as far as the holistic developmental and wealth creation projections are concerned. Nonetheless, a sizeable number of COMESA countries have, from time to time, experienced phases of complex regime transition, a state of affairs that comes with an aura of regional instability, thereby undermining the prosperity prospects of a trading bloc that boasts a combined GDP of US$ 768 billion. Over the past decade, a sizeable number of these countries have been faced with one form or another of political turmoil and assorted civil strife, especially within the context of regime transitions and/or change of power from one government to the next. Against this background, through the lenses of neofunctionalism and liberal institutionalist theories, this paper examines the question of how best to ensure and/or maintain regional stability in the midst of such complex regime transitions, with the view of teasing out the challenges and opportunities before offering sustainable policy recommendations for COMESA countries.
Topic:: COMESA, Regional Stability, Neofunctionalism, Liberal Institutionalism, and Complex Regime Transitions
Political Geography:: Africa

232. Terminating Insurgency in Mozambique: Reflections on the SADC Mission In Mozambique

Author:: Oita Etyang, Lweendo Kambela, and Stephen Muleya
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The continued threat of insurgency in Mozambique has triggered academic and policy interest in the recent past. Indeed, the ramifications caused by acts of insurgency globally and in Africa remain endemic. This calls for the need to establish sustainable and context-specific interventions at regional and national levels. The Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) regions have not been spared from the lethality of insurgency, with Mozambique morphing into the epicentre of interest. Insurgency has caused untold suffering to communities in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, prompting the deployment of a SADC mission. As a regional peace operation, the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) was deployed on 15 July 2021 following approval by the Extraordinary SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government held in Maputo, Mozambique on 23 June 2021. The main objective of SAMIM was to support the Republic of Mozambique to combat armed groups and acts of insurgency, particularly in the Cabo Delgado province. This article seeks to understand the impact of the SAMIM intervention. It mainly interrogates SAMIM’s mandate, structure, success, challenges and lessons learned using both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies and various open data sources, including programmatic documents.
Topic:: Security, Insurgency, Peacekeeping, COMESA, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgado

233. The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend: Ethiopia–Eritrea Relations and the 2020 Conflict in the Tigray Region in Ethiopia

Author:: Berita Mutinda Musau
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Abiy Ahmed’s assumption of power in Ethiopia in April 2018 brought positive changes that were lauded internationally but unwelcomed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) –one of the coalition parties in the Ethiopian government. In November 2020, the Ethiopian Federal Government commenced a massive ‘law enforcement operation’ in the Tigray region against the TPLF. Eritrea’s involvement in the conflict alongside the Ethiopian government internationalised it. This article analyses Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray conflict. Since their 1998 border war over the Badme region, Eritrea and Ethiopia have had frosty relations. To date, they are still mending these relationships despite their 2018 rapprochement. This article argues that the alliance of the Ethiopian government with Eritrea against the TPLF could be a case of ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ and thus examines Ethiopia–Eritrea relations and their strategic considerations that necessitated this alliance. Adopting the realist theory of international relations, the study reviews literature and historically analyses the relations between the two countries. The study’s main objective is to understand their strategic considerations for conflict and cooperation at different times in history and particularly in the Tigray conflict. The study’s findings reveal that amid the Ethiopia‒Eritrea relations are Eritrean‒Tigrayan relations, anchored in issues of identity construction and deconstruction, statehood and sovereignty, animosity, mistrust and apprehension. The study recommends that the relations between Abiy Ahmed’s government, Eritrea and the TPLF should be keenly monitored and managed for the stability of the two countries and the Horn of Africa region.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Armed Conflict, and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

234. The East African Community Regional Force in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Successes, Challenges and Prospects

Author:: Kizito Sabala and Vyalirendi Jacques Muhindo
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of more than 20 years of existence of the United Nations Organization Mission in Congo/Mission de l’Organization des Nations Unies au Congo (MONUSCO), the East African Community (EAC) deployed a military force in the eastern part of the country in November 2022. The purpose of the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) was to contribute towards the resolution of the conflict that has ravaged the region for decades, and specifically to neutralise the M23 resurgence and the numerous informal armed groups. The regional economic community that brings together eight countries, namely, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda was doing this for the first time since its establishment in 1999. Slightly over a year since its deployment, and eventual withdrawal in December 2023, there are several questions that arise which are the subject of this article: (i) Why did the EAC deploy EACRF when there is MONUSCO? (ii) to what extent had EACRF achieved its objective? (iii) was the mandate of the regional force appropriate for the situation in eastern DRC and how did it compare to that of MONUSCO? (iv) what are the challenges and prospects for peace, security and political stability in the DRC? While the article relies predominantly on secondary data, it taps into limited primary sources obtained by one of the authors during field humanitarian assignments in different parts in DRC.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Humanitarian Intervention, Military Intervention, and M23
Political Geography:: Africa, East Africa, and Democratic Republic of Congo

235. The Farmer–Fulani Herdsmen Clashes and the Socio-Economic Development of North-Western Nigeria: A Case Study of Southern Kaduna

Author:: David Villah Dan-Azumi
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The clashes between Fulani herdsmen and farmers in Nigeria have become endemic and persistent for decades. Climate change, cattle rustling, expansion of cultivated lands and population growth are among the major drivers of these clashes. However, the trends in the clashes in recent years suggest strong political, religious, ethnic and economic undertones. The recurrent and escalating nature of the violence in recent times is worrisome and despite the existing security efforts at the federal and state levels, the conflict remains unabated. This research examines the farmer–Fulani herdsmen clashes and their impact on the socio-economic development of southern Kaduna state. To explain the multifaceted nature of the clashes and how they affect the livelihoods of the affected communities, the study employs a theory of frustration and conflict, a quantitative research method, a survey research design and inferential statistics to analyse data. Findings from the research show an intricate interplay of socio-political, economic and ethno-religious factors in the violent clashes, a lack of feasible and realistic grazing policies and a lack of strong political will to address the conflict. Based on the research findings, the study recommends the establishment of cattle ranches in accordance with the existing laws on land ownership and robust security measures and structures to anticipate and forestall the recurrent clashes.
Topic:: Conflict, Justice, Economic Development, Reconciliation, and Fulani Herdsmen
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

236. Distributive Justice and Land-Related Conflict in Panda Development Area of Nasarawa State, Nigeria

Author:: Joshua O. Zachariah and Elias Chukwuemeka Ngwu
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The question of land has increasingly become a major source of conflicts in many parts of Africa. In Nigeria, claims of rights over landholdings and justice administration of land disputes, though of great concern, have received inadequate attention in the literature. In this context, this paper examines Nozickian distributive justice vis-à-vis land-related conflicts in the Panda Development Area (PDA), Nasarawa state, Nigeria. It focuses on perennial delays-cum-unfavourable rectification of unjust landholdings as drivers of conflict in the area. The study employs the survey method of data collection using key-informant interviews. It adopts a qualitative descriptive method to analyse the data. The paper found that over 80% of the population in the study area rely on agriculture, and that there are numerous contestations over land use and ownership. Unfortunately, still, adjudication of these cases lingers unnecessarily, resulting in distrust, antagonisms and violent confrontations. The study recommends fundamental reform of Nigeria’s justice system as it relates to land matters to ensure more equitable distribution of land. Such reform should include the introduction of special courts as well as the mainstreaming of traditional institutions, local and ad-hoc arbitrators into the dispute resolution mechanisms of land-related cases.
Topic:: Development, Justice, Peacebuilding, and Land Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

237. The Transitional Justice Policy of Ethiopia and its Relevance for Peacebuilding

Author:: Yohannes Haile Getahun
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article deals with the peacebuilding impact of the Transitional Justice Policy of Ethiopia (TJPE) through an explanatory case study approach that contextualises the discourse of transitional justice and peace within the specific context of Ethiopia. Drawing on existing literature on the peace implications of transitional justice systems, the study develops a framework that emphasises the need for a balanced approach that integrates retributive and restorative justice mechanisms. Foregrounding the TJPE, the article identifies both prospects and limitations. The processes of truth-seeking and accountability for past, recent and present human rights abuses, fighting the culture of impunity and building social trust are the primary prospects. However, certain factors could undermine the peacebuilding contributions of the transitional justice programme. These factors include political capture, the politics of striking mutual innocence pacts, predicaments of political legitimacy, harmonising reconciliation and justice and ongoing conflicts. Generally, beyond the textual and institutional design, the political system and its dynamics have much bearing on the effectiveness of the TJPE in bringing about durable peace.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Impunity, Reconciliation, Peacebuilding, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

238. The Domestic Impact of the ICERD on TRC-Related Prosecutions in South Africa: A Story of Lost Opportunities for Post-Apartheid Justice

Author:: Ntokozo Sibanyoni
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD/the Convention) is a response to apartheid in pre-democratic South Africa. Article 6 obliges states to provide reparations to victims of discrimination. However, 31 years into its democracy, South Africa is haunted by a poor record of prosecuting apartheid. While popular discussions focus on the failure of the government to prosecute, this article focuses on the extent of the Convention’s domestic impact on the prosecutions. This contribution uses a working definition of domestic impact, which emphasises the efforts of all stakeholders in the state’s reporting process. The contribution relies on data collected through desktop research and semi-structured interviews with people working on race-related issues, to assess the extent to which article 6 of the Convention has been realized. Arguing that the Convention has made a delayed and limited impact on prosecutions, the article discusses factors that have hindered impact and provides recommendations towards the realisation of article 6 of the Convention.
Topic:: Apartheid, Transitional Justice, Justice, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

239. Conflict Resolution Mechanisms for Strengthening Land Tenure Security: A Case of Mvomero District, Tanzania

Author:: Samwel Alananga and Christoncia Joyness
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: In Tanzania, conflicts over land resources between pastoralists and farmers have been pervasive, especially in Mvomero District despite numerous efforts by the government to resolve them. This study is based on secondary data concerning the persistence of conflict, complemented by thematic analysis of six key informant interviews from three villages in Mvomero District: Kambala, Bungoma and Mkindo. The goal is to understand the evolving nature of land conflicts, the effectiveness of conflict-resolution mechanisms and the impacts on both farmers and pastoralists. The findings reveal that efforts to address land conflicts are hindered by several factors: inadequate resources, low levels of knowledge and awareness about land matters, the absence of village land councils, a lack of Village Land Use Plans (VLUPs), especially in pastoralist-dominated villages and insufficient and uncoordinated information. Drawing on theories of principled negotiation and conflict resolution, this paper argues that there is no single resolution strategy suitable for all conflicts, as each setting is unique even within the same village. Nonetheless, coercive methods remain common, with paramilitary and government officials often employed instead of negotiated solutions. Since this approach offers only short-term relief, land conflicts tend to recur repeatedly. In light of these findings, the paper recommends that stakeholders should follow up initial coercive interventions with negotiated approaches to ensure long-term stability. To this end, the effective implementation of the Village Land Act (1999) and the Land Disputes Courts Act (2019) requires the development of operational guidelines and tools that support negotiated solutions in line with the principles of principled negotiation theory.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Land Conflict, Land Tenure Security, and Farmer-Pastoralist Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

240. Analysing the Root Causes of Armed Conflicts in Northern Ethiopia

Author:: Alemu Mullaw
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Armed conflicts that need constructive measurement are rampant in various corners of the world. Currently, there are wars occurring in Europe, Asia, and Africa. Armed conflict can be understood as a battle between two parties, at least one of which is a state government, over a government or territory, using armed forces.1 The notion of conflict is evolving along with understandings of states, borders, relationships, actors, issues, and globalisation. Mary Kaldor described this expanded understanding as ‘New Wars,’ which applies to the 2020 Ethiopian armed conflict.2 Ethiopia maintained its independence during the colonial period and emerged with its present borders and ethnic make-up at the end of the 19th century due to the territorial expansion undertaken by Emperor Menelik II (1889-1913). However, the history of the country is riddled with intra- and inter-state conflicts and it has experienced acute political and economic contradictions.3 The country has been a federal republic since 1994, with the official name of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, subdivided into nine ethnically based regional states (Killil), each with a large degree of autonomy, and two autonomous cities with regional state status, namely Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa.4
Topic:: Security, Peace, Armed Conflict, and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

241. The Role of the African Union Peace and Security Council in Promoting the Responsible use of Artificial Intelligence for Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Africa

Author:: Victor Obinna Chukwuma
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Petra Molnar wrote that the development of technology ‘reinforces power asymmetries between countries’ and influences ‘our thinking around which countries can push for innovation, while other spaces like conflict zones and refugee camps become sites of experimentation.’1 Africa has been dealing with a perennial refugee crisis. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), ‘Around 30 million internally displaced persons, refugees and asylum-seekers live in Africa, representing almost one-third of the world’s refugee population.’2 As artificial intelligence (AI) is gradually reshaping the way things are done all over the world, governments are turning to novel technologies to streamline processes and reduce administrative burdens and costs in public service delivery, including critical decisions affecting the rights of refugees and asylum seekers. While the deployment of AI for border control seems to be more pronounced in developed countries, it is gradually gaining traction in Africa. African governments are exploring the best ways to harness AI, not just for economic growth but also for improving their security architecture and border control. Indeed, AI can be of immense assistance to Africa in managing the refugee crisis. However, there is a need for deeper engagement on how these technologies may compromise the rights of refugees and asylum seekers in Africa, as it is being done in developed countries today. Whereas a harmful use of AI in refugee settings in Africa can exacerbate the existing crisis, a responsible use of AI can have alleviatory impacts. This research examines the role of the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) in this regard.
Topic:: Refugees, Artificial Intelligence, UN Security Council, Asylum, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa

242. Critical Reflections on SADC’s approach to Regional Security: The case of SAMIM

Author:: Chikondi Chidzanja
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article is situated in the broader context of the challenges that peacekeeping, peace enforcement and counterinsurgency (COIN) missions are facing in executing their mandates. Although these challenges have been discussed mainly within the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping contexts, they have extended to the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) context. These challenges are noticeable in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, where the Southern African Development Community (SADC) deployed a mission, the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), with a counterterrorism mandate. This piece reflects on the lessons from the intervention for both SADC and its member states. The lessons focus on the host state’s consent and cooperation, self-funding, coordination with partners and lastly, host state ownership and responsibility for citizen protection. Both at the macro and micro level, the SAMIM intervention provides critical insights into the emerging ad hoc model for RECs as they assume responsibility for security sector governance architecture following gridlocks in the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the crisis of multilateralism. Following the UN General Assembly in 2024, which will be remembered for its overarching theme ‘Pact for the Future,’ the piece focuses on how SADC should navigate the aforementioned lessons to enhance sustainable peace and security in the region. Not many studies have focused on how host state consent, self-funding, coordination with partners, and host state ownership and responsibility can affect REC missions like SAMIM. The key question is the commitment of member states to the use of multilateral regional institutions and how these institutions promote the use of their frameworks to tackle common regional security issues while maintaining local agency. Broadly, some questions are: How can SADC and its member states work towards closer cooperation with consistency and in an adaptive manner without compromising the overall mandate of SADC as a regional body? At the same time, how can SADC member states stop viewing SADC as an afterthought in the peace and security sector?
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Counter-terrorism, Protection, Regional Security, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

243. Conflict Resolution by the African Union: Encounters of Peacekeeping Efforts in Somalia

Author:: Jacqueline Nakaiza and Charlotte Karungi Mafumbo
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Two of the goals set by the African Union (AU) were to promote peace, security and stability for socioeconomic development and to draft an agenda to tackle African problems. The aspiration of African Solutions for African Problems, under the norms of the responsibility to protect (R2P), prompted the AU to take up this responsibility in Somalia. Since the collapse of the state in 1991, Somalia has perpetually failed to secure its territory and protect its populace from self-destruction. It has also failed to respond to disasters, such as famine caused by drought. Somalia is suffering instability caused by Islamist groups who can easily operate in the country due to the absence of state institutions. When the United Nations (UN) Security Council is unwilling to act in a situation crying out for intervention, such as in Somalia, it authorises regional or sub-regional organisations under Chapter VIII of the UN Charter to intervene.1 The Security Council passed Resolution 1744 (2007) under this clause, mandating the AU to deploy troops to Somalia in 2007.2 The initial mandate to stabilise the country and pave the way for a UN Peace Operation was six months long.3 Regarding interventions, Article 4(h) of the AU Constitutive Act clearly states: ‘the AU has the right to intervene in a Member State according to a decision of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances, namely: war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity.’4 As such, the protection of the fundamental rights of citizens is not a purely domestic concern and sovereignty cannot shield repressive states from intervention by the AU. This article in the AU Constitutive Act was invoked after the reluctance of the international community to intervene in Somalia.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

244. Artisanal Mining in Zimbabwe: A Complex Narrative of Balancing Economic Gains and Social Strife

Author:: Rumbidzaishe Matambo
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) ‘refers to mining by individuals, groups, families or cooperatives with minimal or no mechanisation, often in the informal (illegal) sector of the market’.1 A distinction can, however, be made between artisanal mining and small-scale mining. Artisanal and small-scale miners rely on basic tools and limited technology to mine gemstones and key minerals and metals such as gold, cobalt, tin, tungsten, and tantalum.2 These materials are vital to the global economy, supporting essential products such as computers, mobile phones, aircraft, medical devices, and rechargeable batteries.3 A significant share of these metals is sourced through ASM. Driven by the steady demand for these goods, artisanal miners persist in their work, often facing dangerous and exploitative conditions, including child labour and other human rights violations.4 Due to limited resources, ASM activities are usually confined to surface and shallow underground mining, representing the simpler side of small-scale mining.5 Historically, ASM is a traditional practice with roots stretching back centuries across various cultures. Since ancient times, artisanal mining has been a core economic activity, supplying materials for adornments, tools, and construction, and was the dominant form of mining until the Industrial Revolution.6
Topic:: Crime, Mining, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

245. ‘Something for Something’: The Face of Peace and Security in Africa under Trump 2.0

Author:: Joel Odota
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The second Trump Administration is reverberating across global systems – politically, economically, socially, and culturally. The world is observing an increasingly transactional and disruptive foreign policy approach, from dramatic aid cuts to multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations (UN), to militaristic threats in West Asia and elsewhere and a regressive stance on gender rights. One of the defining characteristics of this Administration is the emergent doctrine of ‘something for something,’ whereby the United States (US) engagement in global affairs, particularly in peace and security, is conditional upon tangible benefits – primarily economic or strategic resources. A pertinent example of this approach is the Trump Administration’s reported demand for 50% of Ukraine’s critical minerals – including graphite, uranium, titanium, and lithium – in exchange for continued security assistance.[1] Lithium, essential in battery production for electric vehicles, is of particular strategic interest. A similar arrangement appears to be unfolding in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where the African government is seeking a security deal with Washington in exchange for access to the country’s abundant natural resources. In fact, Trump appointed his in-law Massad Boulos as the Senior Advisor for Africa, and Massad’s first overseas trip was to the DRC, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. The visit was to do two things: to ‘get more momentum on the peace agreement and the peace process in eastern DRC, and also, how to bring US investment to the region in Central Africa and the Great Lakes region.’[2] A review of Senior Advisor Boulos’s professional background reveals a strategic alignment with President Trump’s objectives in the DRC. Boulos brings decades of experience in sectors closely tied to the Administration’s emerging interest in resource-for-security exchanges. Notably, he previously held senior executive roles, including Director of Peugeot Nigeria Ltd., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Nissan Nigeria Ltd., and Managing Director/CEO of SCOA Nigeria Group. The SCOA Group is a prominent conglomerate engaged in the assembly, distribution, sales, and servicing of a wide range of global brands in sectors such as automotive, construction and mining equipment, agriculture, power generation, oil and gas, and industrial machinery. Additionally, the company has substantial interests in contracting and real estate development. Boulos’s extensive background in extractive industries and infrastructure development, especially within the African context, positions him as a key figure in shaping and advancing Trump’s transactional approach to US-Africa relations, particularly in countries like the DRC where strategic natural resource access is a central concern.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Leadership, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

246. The African Union’s Pace of Integration: The Sahelian Crisis as a Challenge to Supranational Expectations

Author:: Matteo Peccini
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article contributes to the ongoing and dynamic debate surrounding the process of continental integration promoted by the African Union (AU). The article investigates how the African integration process has evolved, particularly from the perspective of peace and security, with a specific focus on the case study of the central Sahel. How can the continental approach to the Sahelian crisis be assessed in light of the AU’s longstanding integrative ambitions in the fields of peace and security? Can the instability in the Sahel be considered a missed opportunity for strengthening the continental response to such a significant crisis? This article reflects on these central questions and proposes the Sahel as a potential lens through which to interpret broader continental dynamics.
Topic:: Security, Peacekeeping, Peace, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

247. The Pitfalls of Regionalising National Dialogues

Author:: Chido Mutangadura-Yeswa
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: National dialogues can provide continental and regional actors with entry points to manage political and electoral violence through multi-track diplomacy. Multi-track diplomacy refers to the expansion of international engagement to a multiplicity of levels outside of the traditional diplomatic high-level channels. Multi-track diplomacy is linked to the whole-of-society approach to conflict management. This approach promotes adopting inclusive strategies to transform complex and multi-dimensional conflicts.[1] This shifts the focus away from traditional, high-level engagement among heads of states, diplomats and high-ranking officials. Multi-track diplomacy instead engages multiple conflict stakeholders in coordinated multi-level dialogues. Multi-track diplomacy in Africa translates into regionalising national dialogues because mediators deployed by the African Union (AU) and regional economic communities (RECs) engage with conflict actors largely within state-organised or, at the least, state-sanctioned frameworks. The East African Community’s (EAC) intervention during the Burundi political crisis from 2015 to 2019 demonstrates the opportunities and challenges presented by regionalising national dialogues in peace processes. Burundi’s political crisis was triggered by the presidential candidate nomination of Pierre Nkurunziza by the National Council for the Defence of Democracy – Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD). The CNDD-FDD’s decision caused a political crisis leading to large-scale protests, government crackdowns, an attempted coup d’état, and militia attacks on military garrisons. By 2018, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that over 430 000 refugees had fled the country due to the crisis.[2] The EAC’s Inter-Burundi Dialogue eventually emerged as the main preventive diplomacy intervention with Tanzania’s late former president, Benjamin Mkapa, as the facilitator and Uganda’s president, Yoweri Museveni, as the chief mediator.[3] The Inter-Burundi Dialogue was conducted as a series of multi-track problem-solving workshops between December 2015 and October 2018. The problem-solving workshops were categorised into ecumenical, women, youth, political parties, and business leaders. The initiative ended with the attendees signing non-violence pacts. Additionally, Benjamin Mkapa held consultative meetings with a wide range of actors, from grassroots to high-level government officials and international actors, before each round of the main dialogue. This article looks at how the Inter-Burundi Dialogue provides insights into how crackdowns on civic spaces, lack of formal regional citizen engagement channels, and government’s lack of cooperation complicate attempts to regionalise national dialogues. The article draws upon my PhD research,[4] which examined the role of regional organisations in promoting citizen participation in election violence prevention processes in Africa, and included 35 in-depth interviews with officials from intergovernmental organisations, civil society representatives in Burundi and expert sources.
Topic:: Mediation, Regionalization, Peace Process, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:: Africa and Burundi

248. The Palaver Tree and the Notions of National Tribunal and Republican Confessional: Reclaiming the African Conflict Resolution Ethos in National Dialogues

Author:: Jean Yves Ndzana Ndzana
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: In the past two decades, national dialogues have become a recurring feature in post-conflict transitions and governance reform across Africa. These processes are often convened to respond to crises of legitimacy, protracted violence, or political fragmentation. While national dialogues are widely acknowledged as participatory mechanisms intended to rebuild social contracts and create pathways for peaceful political transitions, their outcomes have often been mixed. Some have helped usher in new constitutional orders or restore relative stability, while others have collapsed due to elite manipulation, the exclusion of key stakeholders, or a lack of follow-through on agreed-upon resolutions. Despite growing attention from international organisations and regional bodies, such as the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), many national dialogues remain vulnerable to a key limitation: a failure to ground the process in locally legitimate and culturally resonant frameworks of dialogue and consensus-building.[1] One of the critical yet overlooked dimensions in the design of national dialogues in Africa is the limited incorporation of anthropologically grounded approaches to conflict resolution. Indeed, in many instances, these dialogues replicate procedural blueprints modelled on Western liberal notions of deliberation, often emphasising electoral legitimacy, adversarial bargaining, or constitutional legality. However, these externally driven frameworks usually ignore the rich and deeply rooted traditions of communal dialogue, reconciliation, and restorative justice in African societies. As scholars and peace practitioners have increasingly observed, successful peace processes in Africa require not only institutional inclusiveness but also cultural intelligibility.[2] A national dialogue that resonates with local modes of reasoning and social organisation is more likely to secure legitimacy, mobilise trust, and foster sustainable reconciliation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Tribunal, National Dialogue, and Palaver Trees
Political Geography:: Africa

249. National Dialogues in Africa’s Fragile States: Power Struggles, Diversity Management, and the Precarious Fight Against State Collapse

Author:: Distinct Obuzor Imaka and Tonye Marclint Ebiede
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: National dialogues have become an increasingly important conflict management tool in countries facing political instability, conflict, or transitions of power. In many African contexts, it is often seen as a last resort by national stakeholders, an attempt to prevent complete collapse or to guide a nation through a significant political shift. Unlike traditional negotiations that usually involve only political elites or those in power, national dialogues are designed to be more inclusive. They bring together a wide range of voices from across society, including opposition groups, civil society, religious leaders, and community representatives. In recent years, this approach has gained prominence in Africa as a response to ongoing crises. While the outcomes of national dialogues have been mixed, they are generally seen as opportunities to reset national priorities, address long-standing grievances, and open pathways toward reform and reconciliation. This article examines the role of national dialogues in Africa’s fragile states, where contested power, deep divisions, and the risk of state collapse shape the political landscape. In such situations, national dialogue has emerged as a way to manage diversity, resolve conflict, and create space for inclusive reform. The article explores how these dialogues navigate power struggles and whether they offer a meaningful path toward long-term stability.
Topic:: Security, Peace, Mediation, Fragility, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:: Africa

250. ‘Brazil is a Christian and Conservative Country with Family as its Foundation’: The Role of Defender of the Faith in Bolsonaro’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Mónica Salomón and Luis Gustavo de Araújo Zimmer
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: : Foreign policy analysts have used role theory for decades. Several recent studies have resorted to it to describe and explain Brazilian foreign policy. By complementing current efforts that seek to account for the restructuring of Brazil’s international identity undertaken by the Bolsonaro government, this article focuses on a role relatively neglected by literature, i.e., the one Holsti called ‘defender of the faith.’ In the case of Bolsonaro’s foreign policy, the faith to be defended is that of ‘Judeo-Christian civilisation’ values in its most conservative interpretation. After identifying this role in statements by official representatives of Brazilian foreign policy, we examine both its primary internal sources (the political actors identified with religious-conservative agendas in the National Congress) and its external sources (the ‘conservative transnational’ of governments close to Bolsonaro’s), to then illustrate its performance through two sets of initiatives representing drastic changes in Brazilian diplomatic positions: the support to Israel in the voting of UN’s resolutions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the shift from progressive to conservative positions in discussions on gender rights in multilateral venues.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Gender, Role Theory, and Ultraconservatism
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

251. The Consolidation of Liberal Democracy in Brazil: Encountering Global, Regional, and Local Representations

Author:: Daniela Vieria Secches
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The globally expanded international society established a standard of statehood as central criteria for its membership. The end of the Cold War witnessed an ascendant, albeit contested, liberal democracy as a preferred regime in global imaginaries. Within this context, the re-democratization processes experienced in Latin America amid profound international systemic reorientations implied the renegotiation of regional and local social imaginaries, as, for example, in the Brazilian case. In this article, we seek to discuss Brazil’s selective and creative adaptation in the space of overlaps between global, regional, and local social imaginaries about the government regime since the 1990s. Through a theoretical-empirical approach based on the discussion about the construction of shared understandings between international and domestic social spaces, we opted for a pragmatic theoretical foundation with the support of the English School of International Relations, critical philosophy, and the sociology of Bourdieu to study the Brazilian case. By focusing on the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government, it is proposed to qualitatively analyse documents from the period that problematize the country’s external insertion based on the interaction with the global and the regional social imaginaries about liberal democracy, with the support of a bibliographical review grounded on specialized secondary sources
Topic:: Democracy, Social Imaginary, Domestic Politics, and International Society
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and South America

252. Causal Explanation in Brazilian International Relations

Author:: Enzo Lenine
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: How do Brazilian IR scholars tailor causal explanations in their research? Searching for causes has become paramount to the scientific endeavour in the social sciences, and in recent years the lexicon of causality has come under scrutiny, with many scholars revising the standard Humean and covering law approaches to cause. Far from being consensual, current philosophical and meta-theoretical debates in IR reveal a rather kaleidoscopical picture of causation. However, Brazilian IR scholars seem to remain unfamiliar about what it means to advance causal claims. In this paper, I have a twofold goal: to advance the causal talk by rehearsing recent meta-theoretical debates on causality; and to examine the ways Brazilian IR scholars in the subfield of Brazilian foreign policy analysis (BFPA) tailor causal explanations. To achieve the latter, I perform a cartography of the articles published in five Brazilian top-tier journals in the discipline – Brazilian Political Science Review, Dados, Contexto Internacional, Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais and Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional – from 2018 through 2022. I conclude that BFPA research is founded primarily in non-Humean understandings of causality, but Brazilian scholars might benefit from further awareness on the various meanings of causal explanation.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Relations Theory, and Causality
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

253. The Crises and Agony of International Development Cooperation: Consequences for Brazilian Foreign Policy

Author:: Pietro Carlos De Souza Rodrigues and Patricia Andrade de Oliveira Silva
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: At the beginning of this century, International Development Cooperation (IDC) began to occupy a central position in Brazil’s international status. Political and social transformations created conditions for Brazil to begin acting as a relevant protagonist in international projects, especially in developing nations, through South-South Cooperation (SSC). However, a succession of crises after 2011 and the emergence of ideas opposed to cooperation during the Bolsonaro administration (2019-2022) altered the conditions that sustained IDC as part of Brazilian foreign policy. In this article, we will identify the political and economic conditions that ensured (1) the structuring and (2) the growth of Brazilian cooperation up until 2011, and we will argue that the loss of these conditions resulted in IDC’s (3) decline, leading to (4) its agony beginning in 2019. Finally, we will evaluate several consequences of the cooperation crisis based on an evaluation of Brazilian foreign policy in the global health agenda, and its commercial relationship with African nations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation, Global South, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

254. Hidden on the Stage: Racism and Brazilian Foreign Policy in the FESMAN ’66

Author:: João Montenegro Pires
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs organized the country’s contributions in the World Festival of Black Arts (FESMAN, Festival Mundial das Artes Negras) in Senegal in 1966 so as to demonstrate the exceptionality of racial relations in Brazil, expressed under the label of ‘racial democracy.’ The importance attributed to reaffirming Brazilian exceptionality was related to a strategic selectivity of the State aimed at privileging the continuous reconstitution of racism, intrinsically necessary to the reproduction of capital in general and, in particular, in the Brazilian social formation. The case illustrates how racial democracy represented a discursive reference that allowed the State to simultaneously organize the power block and disorganize the opposition from the dominated classes. The Brazilian racial fantasy taken to FESMAN covered up material inequality, made it challenging to identify Afro-Brazilians as a group, and hindered the formation of transnational ties with Pan-Africanism. The current article intends to enrich theoretical reflection on the reasons and ways racism affects the content of Brazilian foreign policy
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Pan-Africanism, Marxism, and State Theory
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

255. Bolsonaro’s Foreign Policy in Laerte Coutinho’s Cartoons

Author:: Gelson Fonseca Júnior and Cristine Koehler Zanella
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This article examines former President Jair Bolsonaro’s foreign policy through Laerte Coutinho’s cartoons, published in the Folha de São Paulo newspaper, contextualised within Brazilian opening speeches at the UN General Assembly’s Annual Debate from 2019 to 2021. The work is epistemologically tied to the aesthetic turn in International Relations, broadly in line with a post-structuralist approach and uses iconographic analysis (including the tools of particular meanings and each cartoon’s situational context) and iconological interpretation methods (applying area concepts to explain foreign policy elements revealed through the sensitivity of the chosen works). Consequently, we identified that the cartoons effectively convey former President Bolsonaro’s approach to Brazilian foreign policy (BFP). It is an alternative epistemological and methodological approach to understanding international affairs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Jair Bolsonaro, Iconography, Cartoons, and Laerte Coutinho
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

256. Food Defence: The Securitisation of the Food Supply

Author:: Elaine Leão Inácio de Melo Andrade, Gilberto Carvalho de Oliveira, and Otniel Freitas-Silva
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The notion of food defence emerged in the USA following the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, reflecting the idea that the food sector constitutes a critical infrastructure for national security and that the food system must be defended against intentional acts, motivated by political or ideological reasons, that could cause large-scale damage to public health or the economy. This study draws on primary documentary sources on food defence, including government guidelines, laws, norms and regulations issued mainly in the USA, as well as secondary bibliographic sources related to the topic, and draws on insights from securitisation theory in order to show that food defence discourses, norms, guidelines and practices connect to a process of social construction of threats and risks, linked to the frameworks of bioterrorism and biodefence, subjecting the food sector to a process of securitisation. Based on this analysis, we aim to contribute, firstly, by deepening the problematisation of food defence, adding to the debate a political and security dimension. Without this discussion, we argue it is not possible to understand, rigorously and accurately, food defence’s defining core and its specificities within the conceptual constellation of food protection. Secondly, by resorting to the food defence case, we hope to contribute empirically to illustrate an expanded version of securitisation, drawing attention to the importance of a more eclectic and integrated look at the discursive and non-discursive aspects and the different logics that operate in the social construction of security.
Topic:: Food Security, Bioterrorism, Biodefense, Securitization, and Protection
Political Geography:: United States of America and North America

257. Peeking Behind the Arches: An Examination of Diplomats’ Party Affiliations and Candidacies in Brazil

Author:: Vinicius Silva Santos
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This article explores the intricate dynamics between Brazilian diplomats and political parties within the realm of foreign policy. Our central research problem is to uncover how the interplay of the party system’s structure, the attributes and ideologies of political parties, and the aspirations of bureaucrats collectively influence the extent of diplomats’ involvement in formal party-political activities. Despite the growing attention to partisanship in Brazilian foreign policy debate, empirical research and methodological approaches to measure the concept are limited. The construct validity of the term is often confused with ideologization and politicization. Moreover, the involvement of Brazilian bureaucrats in party politics lacks comprehensive investigation. To address these gaps, this study examines the relationship between diplomats and political parties, uncovering its multifaceted dimensions and implications. Using a novel data source, we explore diplomats’ affiliations and candidacies, shedding light on interaction patterns during the Nova República period. We present a set of hypotheses investigating the association between diplomats’ party affiliations and their interactions with a) party ideologies (H1) and b) professional ambitions, delineated into i) intra-bureaucratic advantages (H2.1) and ii) political career aspirations (H2.2). By employing a mixed methods approach, incorporating thematic content analysis, descriptive statistics, and hypothesis testing, we aggregated evidence that substantiates hypotheses H1 and H2.2. However, in the case of H2.1, the findings proved inconclusive, prompting the need for further exploration into the topic.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Affiliation, Political Parties, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

258. Institutional Structures of Latin American Countries for Accession and Participation in the OECD

Author:: Lucas da Silva Tasquetto, Magali Favaretto Prieto Fernandes, and Milena da Fonseca Azevedo
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This article delineates the institutional structures established by Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Costa Rica to facilitate their accession to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The analysis delves into the political and economic contexts surrounding each country’s accession process, identifying key institutions and stakeholders domestic reforms required, and particular initiatives from each country, including institutional innovations and adapted procedures. Notably, each country exhibits unique institutional frameworks and adjustments, with varying prominence given to individuals and governmental entities based on constitutional, legal, and political-administrative configurations. We argue that, despite the uniqueness of each process, from an institutional standpoint, decisions concerning accession and the management of the process predominantly revolve around the Presidency and entities corresponding to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with variations in the preponderance of these bodies, and their leadership and coordination roles. Framing entry into the OECD primarily as a technical matter tends to justify the central role of the Ministries of Finance and affiliated bodies within the Presidency, aligned with the OECD’s liberal approach. Moreover, accession to the OECD often complements and/or legitimizes processes of trade openness and structural reforms, spurring consolidation of factions within domestic institutions.
Topic:: OECD, Institutions, Politics, and Economics
Political Geography:: Latin America, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico

259. Brazil and the TPNW: Brazilian Interests and the Promotion of the Norm of Nuclear Prohibition

Author:: Luiza Elena Januário and Raquel Gontijo
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) formalises the norm of nuclear prohibition and is presented as a way to fill a gap regarding nuclear disarmament. Brazil played a leading role in the negotiation of this treaty, in line with its historical advocacy for disarmament. This article aims to analyse the foundations of the Brazilian position, guided by the following question: Can Brazil be considered a norm entrepreneur in favour of the prohibition of nuclear weapons? We hypothesise that Brazil has not truly solidified its role as a normative entrepreneur, exhibiting an ambiguous stance. We begin the article with a discussion of the contributions of norm constructivism. Next, we present some elements of the nuclear normative order. Finally, we analyse Brazil’s posture regarding TPNW and the norm of nuclear prohibition. We provide a historical reconstruction of Brazil’s position, situating it in the context of the norm cluster around nuclear weapons. Despite being vocal in advocating for disarmament, we conclude that Brazil has not fully established itself as a norm entrepreneur in promoting the norm of nuclear prohibition and presents an ambiguous stance due to its weak adherence to humanitarian motivation as the foundation of this norm.
Topic:: Disarmament, Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), Nuclear Weapons, and Norms
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

260. The Capability Approach: Multidimensional Poverty, Global Justice, and Global South Perspectives

Author:: Anna Carolina Kähler de Moraes Barros
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The present work aims to analyse the capability approach, in the terms established by Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum, and its consequences in studying poverty. The theoretical assumptions articulated by these authors not only show the complexity of that multidimensional phenomenon but guide the contours of what should be considered essential for a dignified life. Thus, the capability approach presents itself as the basis of a global understanding of justice. However, such a generalising claim invariably ignores nuances and particularities not properly valued a priori. In this sense, it is necessary to reveal neglected structural aspects that are decisive for the perpetuation of poverty and inequalities in those places where they are more forceful. To this end, peripheral perspectives will be highlighted as an important tool in identifying the limits of the capability approach as the basis of a conception of global justice.
Topic:: Poverty, Capability, Human Rights, Justice, and Global South
Political Geography:: Global Focus

261. To Err Twice: Methodological Pluralism Through the Lens of EU Prison Policy

Author:: Christos Papachristopoulos and Denise Di Nica
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Utilizing the tension between EU and prisons as case study, this article argues for the necessity of a multidisciplinary EU methodological framework. To address the threat of cross-border criminality, the legal principle of mutual trust has been placed at the core of EU judicial cooperation mechanisms. Mutual trust translates to the presumption of equivalent rights protection, a presumption extending to detention, and on the basis of legal standards comprising the pan-EU penal imaginary. Yet, in light of disparate and inadequate detention regimes, mutual trust proves legal fiction. Consequently, and by ignoring the operation of law in action, the Union has exposed itself to the challenge of regulating and effectively enforcing individual standards in prison. To this end, following a doctrinal approach, EU scholars and institutions advocate for further harmonization of detention at EU level. This article argues that such a motion suffers two methodological shortcomings. Firstly, EU scholarship overly underscores the legal dimension of the issue, too readily framing the problematic situation of detention as a legal problem to be redressed via legislative recourse. Secondly, calls for legal harmonization underestimate the political nature of law as policy, and the perils of perceived (horizontal or vertical) illegitimacy of any legally binding intervention. Framing its enquiry by reference to the question posed in this special issue, the article concludes that, while black-letter research in EU law remains essential, novel challenges and idiosyncrasies of the acquis communautaire demand an evolved methodological toolbox, to better reflect the inherent interdisciplinarity of prison policy in the AFSJ.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Law Enforcement, Law, Prisons/Penal Systems, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

262. Regulating Uncertainty: On the Regulation of Human Behavior and its Interpretation by the Court of Justice of the European Union

Author:: Sebastian J. Kasper
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: More often than not, laws are meant to regulate human behavior. However, human beings’ reactions to such regulations are to a large degree uncertain and one can only try to predict them. In that regard, the neighboring field of behavioral economics might provide relevant and necessary insights for effective regulation. However, the Court of Justice of the European Union might, should, or ought to rely on such findings when interpreting European Union (EU) secondary law, to give such rules the most effective meaning by limiting possible infringements on individuals’ fundamental rights. Built on an assessment of the Market in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II), as part of European capital markets law, and with references to consumer protection law, the Taxonomy Regulation, and other European legal acts, this paper, first of all, demonstrates that not only the European legislator but also the Court can, in most situations, rely on behavioral economic findings. Although human behavior as well as results stemming from experimental research are to a certain degree uncertain, concepts developed in behavioral economics describe human behavior better than concepts implying (fully) rational behavior. In addition, obstacles – stemming from both the field of behavioral economics and legal methodology – that arise when applying these experimental findings to interpreting EU secondary law will be summarized and ideas to counter those obstacles are presented. The overall objective of this paper is to further a discussion on how to best incorporate findings from the field of behavioral economics into legal methodology. For this, the paper references, among others, European capital markets law but strives to abstract and generalize key aspects to facilitate a broader reception and discussion.
Topic:: Law, European Union, Behavior, and Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU)
Political Geography:: Europe

263. Arbitral Jurisdiction in Crimea Investment Disputes: Connecting the Dots

Author:: Petro Halimurka
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Under normal circumstances, bilateral investment treaties (BIT) are designed to promote the mutual enhancement of investment climate and to guarantee that foreign investors are treated no worse than investors of host and third States. In many respects, maintaining such relations is believed to reflect economic globalization and the increasingly widespread acceptance of such legal standards as non-discrimination and of striking a balance between national and private foreign interests. Practice shows, however, that the equilibrium of an investment treaty regime can sometimes be disturbed by a chain of actions governed by a field of law with a purpose of a completely different nature, such as the law of armed conflict. Such an interaction can be observed in relations between Russia and certain Ukrainian investors. Following the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, a number of investors, some of whose assets were based in Crimea, commenced investment arbitration proceedings in an attempt to recover some of their rights and interests. This article examines the jurisdictional practice of these arbitral tribunals, along with a critical analysis of the relevant provisions of the Ukraine-Russia BIT, as well as other norms of international law operative in relations developed.
Topic:: International Law, Investment, Arbitration, Jurisdiction, and Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT)
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

264. The (Self-)Isolation of the Russian Academic Legal Community: A Case Study of Research Into Military Interventions for Humanitarian Purposes

Author:: Konstantin M. Brik
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: This article explores the phenomenon of the Russian academic legal community’s isolation. It particularly focuses on the parts of the community conducting their research in international law and military interventions for humanitarian purposes. A quadrifactorial explanation for this isolation is proposed: domestic legal acts, the government’s educational policy, insufficient knowledge of foreign languages, and cultural and political beliefs impact the way Russian jurists perceive the international legal system as well as endow their writing with an excessive focus on theory of international law and peripheral issues. Additionally, these four factors reconcile the Russian academic legal community’s critical attitude toward the concept of military interventions for humanitarian purposes in general, condemnation of specific foreign interventions, and praise for Russian interventions. This article also argues that the Russian academic legal community perceives military intervention for humanitarian purposes as a two-tier threat: a political threat to the Russian Federation on one hand, and an epistemic threat questioning the validity of their largely theoretical knowledge on the other. Finally, the article argues that the Russian academic legal community’s perception of being threatened by military interventions for humanitarian purposes and its isolation are mutually enhancing.
Topic:: Law, Humanitarian Intervention, Academia, and Isolation
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

265. Adding to the Toolbox: Court Published ‘Fact Sheets’ in the EU Legal Order

Author:: Mareike Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Issued by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), fact sheets act as communication tool within the EU legal landscape, serving as informative summaries of key jurisprudence on selected topics. They raise intriguing questions about institutional responsibilities and the broader implications for dissemination of information by courts. By combining traditional legal analysis with empirical insights, this study investigates the regulatory framework governing court-issued fact sheets and evaluates their classification as a form of “soft law.” The article argues that while fact sheets enhance transparency and reduce information asymmetries, they must balance their informational role with the neutrality and core adjudicatory functions of the CJEU. The research highlights both the potential of these documents to support judicial efficiency and informed discourse, as well as areas where refinement could bolster their reliability and effectiveness in the evolving landscape of EU legal communication.
Topic:: European Union, Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU), Law, and Communications
Political Geography:: Europe

266. Thomas Buergenthal and the Americas: A Comprehensive Contribution to Human Rights Protection

Author:: Kai Ambos
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: While Thomas Buergenthal’s contribution to the field of human rights is certainly of global importance, it had a particular impact in the Americas, especially during the crucial initial phase of the Inter-American Human Rights System (IAHRS) with the Court as its core institution on which Buergenthal served as one of the first group of judges from 1979 to 1991. In a nutshell, Buergenthal’s contribution may be characterized as a comprehensive and decisive effort to the regional protection of human rights in a threefold way: prudent proactivity (A.), active promotion and optimization (B.), interaction and critical follow-up (C.). At the same time, Buergenthal pursued a strategic-progressive approach which offers valuable lessons for the protection of human rights going well beyond the Americas. Buergenthal’s contribution to human rights and to international law in general cannot be overestimated. His principled and at the same time prudent strategic approach will be greatly missed, especially in our challenging times where international law is under attack at various fronts.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Protection, and Thomas Buergenthal
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, and Americas

267. Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights: Towards an Advanced International Binding Regulation?

Author:: Takis Vidalis
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: With the rapid development of AI applications in the most important areas of economic, political and social life, the regime for the protection of fundamental rights has been significantly affected. This reality gives rise to initiatives for new legislation at international, supranational and national level. At the level of international law in particular, this legislation currently focuses on the formulation of general principles and guidelines. What is lacking is more specific regulation in situations where the introduction of AI causes uncertainty as to the protection of specific rights, particularly where conflicts arise between them. This article attempts to formulate proposals for such a more specific regulation, based on widely acknowledged principles of international law. Given that technological development and its impact on today’s societies know no national limitations, the adoption of this ‘next step’ in international law may well determine the smooth adaptation of AI to the values of democratic societies.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

268. The Montreux Convention and its Importance for International Peace and Security

Author:: Ioannis Antonopoulos
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Since its conclusion, the Montreux Convention regarding the regime of the Straits (1936) constitutes an important pillar of the international order. This may be proven by many historical events from the 20th century until today: From the application of the Convention in WWII to its recent invocation in the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. The Convention’s significance derives from its subject-matter, the freedom of transit through the Dardanelles/Turkish Straits in regard to the warships and aircraft in time of peace and in time of war. This is a legal analysis of the Montreux Convention under the scope of International Law providing a brief look at the historical background of events that have led to the signature of the Convention, an extensive presentation of the legal framework of its provisions regarding passage of warships and overflight of aircraft, as well as, some thoughts on its importance for the international peace and security.
Topic:: Security, International Law, History, Peace, International Order, and Montreux Convention
Political Geography:: Europe

269. Ocean Rights – Challenges and Prospects

Author:: Jasper Mührel
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: The pressing environmental crises of the Anthropocene are inherently connected to ocean health. Yet, the oceans are currently in a critical state. The article explores the idea of giving rights to oceans as one way to enhance their legal protection. It draws on scholarship and practice regarding the existing legal rights of nature, and discusses the challenges and prospects of ocean rights. In doing so, the article raises and addresses three fundamental questions for the recognition of such rights: first, why oceans should hold their own rights in the first place; second, who, i.e. what exact entity or entities, shall hold ocean rights; and finally, how such rights could be implemented and represented and thus be given practical effect.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Law, Oceans and Seas, Anthropocene, and Rights
Political Geography:: Global Focus

270. Ceuta y Melilla en clave de seguridad nacional

Author:: Luis de la Corte Ibáñez
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: This paper examines the position of Ceuta and Melilla in Spain's national security, considering their strategic importance as Spanish cities located in North Africa and their status as the external border of the European Union. The text begins with a description and assessment of the unique characteristics of Ceuta and Melilla, particularly those of a geographical, institutional and political nature. It then analyses the main threats affecting both cities: irregular immigration, drug trafficking and cross-border organised crime, radicalisation and jihadist terrorism, and hostile political actions. It examines how these threats interact and intensify in the specific context of Ceuta and Melilla. The role of Morocco as a source of risk is also studied. Firstly, as a result of its claim to the two North African cities, which complicates its relations with Spain and calls into question the territorial integrity of the Spanish nation. And secondly, as a result of the Moroccan state's use of its capabilities to create problems in Ceuta and Melilla in order to influence Spanish policy and action. An analysis of the policies implemented by Morocco with negative consequences for the two cities identifies a variety of actions in the ‘grey area’. Based on this diagnosis, the article concludes with a brief reflection and a series of recommendations to contribute to the design of a comprehensive strategy aimed at ensuring the effective defence of Ceuta and Melilla and reducing the structural vulnerabilities of both territories.
Topic:: National Security, Defense Policy, Immigration, Organized Crime, Terrorism, and Gray Zone
Political Geography:: Ceuta, Melilla, Spain, Morocco, and North Africa

271. Introducción al monográfico: Ceuta, Melilla y los desafíos estratégicos para España en su flanco sur

Author:: Luis de la Corte Ibáñez
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: This article introduces a special issue dedicated to analysing the strategic challenges that affect Ceuta and Melilla and, through them, Spain’s national security on its southern flank. Despite the geopolitical significance of both cities, these challenges receive limited attention in public debate and academic research. The contributions to this volume address key issues such as migratory pressure, relations with Morocco and Algeria, grey zone actions, multicultural coexistence, political representation, military foresight, and the legal dimension of potential conflict. In contrast to the silence that often surrounds these matters, the articles presented here offer a rigorous, multidisciplinary and necessary examination.
Topic:: National Security, Defense Policy, International Relations, Immigration, Multiculturalism, and Gray Zone
Political Geography:: Spain, Ceuta, Melilla, North Africa, Morocco, and Algeria

272. Relaciones de España con Marruecos y Argelia y consecuencias para Ceuta y Melilla

Author:: Carlos Echeverría Jesús
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Morocco claims territories belonging to Spain and Algeria. Ceuta, Melilla, the Vélez de la Gomera and Alhucemas Rocks and the Chafarinas islands, from Spain, and the so-called Eastern Sahara from Algeria. Morocco considers that the Kingdom suffers a “territorial deficit”, and this perception remains today and will remain in the future as an obstacle for the consolidation of stable relations in the region.
Topic:: Regional Politics, Foreign Policy, Territory, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Morocco, Spain, Europe, and North Africa

273. Las políticas de reconocimiento en lasciudades multiculturales de Ceuta y Melilla

Author:: Carlos Rontomé
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: The cities of Ceuta and Melilla constitute a model of multiculturalism based on minority recognition policies, with special attention to the Islamic minority. The development of these cities as multicultural spaces has been a protracted process that has been consolidated over the last two decades. This process, not without tensions, reveals the difficulties in implementing the recognition policies necessary for the stability of both cities.
Topic:: Multiculturalism, Minorities, Cities, Identity, and Muslims
Political Geography:: Spain, North Africa, Ceuta, and Melilla

274. Representación política e identidad local en Ceuta (1975-2023)

Author:: Fernández. Alicia
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: This article proposes a comparative analysis of the Ceuta political arena, as well as a study of the existing political cleavages, the referents involved in the construction of Ceuta's identity, and their current political practices and preferences.
Topic:: Identity, Representation, Elections, Politics, and Community Cleavages
Political Geography:: Ceuta, Spain, North Africa, and Morocco

275. La Geopolítica de las Regiones Polares: Desafíos y Oportunidades en un Mundo Cambiante

Author:: Samuel Morales
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Este artículo examina la evolución de la geopolítica en las regiones polares —el Ártico y la Antártida— en el contexto de un mundo marcado por el cambio climático, la competencia por recursos estratégicos, el ascenso de nuevas potencias y la transformación del sistema internacional. A través de un enfoque comparado, se analizan las estructuras de gobernanza, los intereses geoestratégicos, los conflictos emergentes y las oportunidades de cooperación en ambas regiones. En el caso del Ártico, el trabajo identifica una creciente militarización, competencia por hidrocarburos y minerales críticos, así como el interés de actores extrarregionales como China. La gobernanza, basada en el Consejo Ártico y en acuerdos multilaterales como la UNCLOS, muestra limitaciones frente a tensiones interestatales y amenazas ambientales. La Antártida, en contraste, se mantiene bajo un régimen jurídico sólido —el Sistema del Tratado Antártico— que ha logrado preservar la paz y la cooperación científica. Sin embargo, la posible revisión del Protocolo de Madrid en 2048 y la presión por acceder a recursos biológicos y otros activos plantean desafíos futuros. El artículo propone una lectura sistémica e interdisciplinaria de las regiones polares, sugiriendo reformas en los regímenes de gobernanza, mayor inclusión de actores no estatales e instrumentos jurídicos adaptativos.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Resources, Governance, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

276. Regulating Digital Fintech: How States Navigate Power and Geopolitics

Author:: Bipul Biplav Mukherjee
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This study explores the evolving role of fintech regulation as a strategic tool of geopolitical influence, highlighting how states leverage digital finance, data governance and artificial intelligence to reshape global power structures. It contrasts the regulatory models of the United States, China, and the European Union, each guided by distinct imperatives of innovation, state control, and digital sovereignty. The analysis underscores the growing politicization of fintech and the intensifying race for digital supremacy among major powers. Within this context, the article engages with issues of data decentralization, cross-sectoral data-sharing, and open banking—developments that promote financial inclusion and innovation but also generate complex governance challenges. The study concludes that coordinated transnational regulatory frameworks are essential to safeguarding financial stability and mitigating systemic risks in an increasingly contested and fragmented digital financial ecosystem.
Topic:: International Relations, Governance, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Artificial Intelligence, Banking, and Power Structure
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

277. Cambio Climático y Transición Energética: Una Transformación Geopolítica en Marcha

Author:: Xira Ruiz
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: El artículo analiza la dimensión geopolítica del cambio climático y de la transición energética, en un contexto internacional marcado por la rivalidad entre grandes potencias y la fragmentación del orden global. Se exploran los efectos que estas transformaciones generan en la reconfiguración de las interdependencias materiales, el acceso a recursos críticos y la redefinición de la seguridad energética. El texto se centra especialmente en el papel de Estados Unidos, China y la Unión Europea, así como en las implicaciones para el Sur Global. También analiza el desplazamiento del liderazgo climático desde los marcos multilaterales tradicionales hacia nuevas formas de diplomacia orientadas a la competencia por el liderazgo tecnológico y el control de cadenas de valor. El artículo concluye que la transición energética implica una reorganización estratégica de las relaciones internacionales, que genera nuevas formas de dependencia, redefine las prioridades de seguridad y plantea desafíos para la equidad global y la gobernanza compartida.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, Energy Transition, Energy Security, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: China, United States of America, and Global South

278. La Guerra Cognitiva: Opción Estratégica Emergente en la Zona Gris de la Competición Geopolítica

Author:: Soledad Segoviano
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: La guerra cognitiva se define como un conjunto de actividades destinadas a influir, modificar o controlar percepciones, emociones, actitudes, comportamientos y procesos de toma de decisiones con el objetivo de alterar las capacidades cognitivas de individuos y grupos para alcanzar una posición de ventaja estratégica sobre los adversarios sin necesidad de recurrir al uso directo de la fuerza. La guerra cognitiva, un concepto emergente donde se desdibujan los límites entre la guerra y la paz, se fundamenta en el uso de las ciencias neurocognitivas y otros avances científicos y tecnológicos, como la nanotecnología, la biotecnología o la robótica, para manipular y perturbar la cognición humana, un componente fundamental en el actual entorno de seguridad internacional. Este artículo presenta la guerra cognitiva como una opción estratégica al servicio de los intereses de poder y seguridad de diferentes competidores globales en un escenario internacional definido por la transformación y la creciente rivalidad geopolítica.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Hybrid Warfare, Cognitive Warfare, and Neuroscience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

279. Military Humanitarianism: A case of India´s Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations

Author:: Aashriti Gautam
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The current global scenario, wherein states are increasingly inclined to deploy military force to defend their national interests at the cost of human lives, often overlooks the military's constructive role in safeguarding and reinstating fundamental democratic values, such as respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, through its Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief operations (HADR). Within this contextual framework, the article adds an important dimension to the existing scholarship on the relationship between democratic values and the military, examined through the lens of military humanitarianism. To further substantiate this assertion, the author posits that the global humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations undertaken by the Indian Armed Forces serve as a compelling case study. The analytical findings reveal that India’s HADR efforts reflect its commitment to democratic values, emphasizing transparency, inclusivity, and equitable aid distribution, while strengthening governance, resilience, and strategic influence in global crisis management.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Armed Forces, Democracy, Military, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

280. La Ciberguerra y su impacto en el Orden Mundial

Author:: Enrique Cubeiro
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: El ciberespacio es un ámbito artificial y en continua expansión de tal forma que el abanico de objetivos potenciales que pueden ser afectados por medio de alguna de las múltiples técnicas de ciberataque es muy amplio. El artículo explica las peculiaridades del ciberespacio, su transversalidad, la opacidad, la asimetría y el impacto del ciberespacio en las potencialidades del débil con respecto al fuerte, así como en la diversidad de las amenazas que genera, la inefectividad de la disuasión, la disociación ofensivo-defensiva, el amplio abanico de posibles daños y su efectividad en creciente progresión. El artículo explica también la dificultad de aplicación en este campo del derecho internacional humanitario donde, además, los Estados juegan con reglas diferentes, y cómo muy pocos Estados cuentan con un poder ciberespacial completo, contribuyendo, con ello, a establecer una jerarquía entre Estados en términos de seguridad.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Human Rights, Cybersecurity, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

281. La Geopolítica del Espacio Marítimo y Terrestre. “Mediterráneos” y Proyecciones

Author:: Antonio Marquina and Federico Aznar
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: La historia de la humanidad puede plantearse como una sucesión de colisiones entre lo terrestre y lo marítimo, entre lo telúrico y lo talasocrático. La dialéctica entre ambos términos ha cuajado a nivel local en lo mediterráneo, en espacios en los que un mar rodeado por la costa terrestre ocupa una posición de centralidad. De hecho, la Historia ha ido consagrando sucesivamente a estos distintos espacios geográficos como centros de gravedad del mundo por la acumulación de poder que el mar traslada a sus costas. Además, y ya en la actualidad, lo mediterráneo se integra en el proceso de refragmentación de la globalización y también se produce una interconexión entre algunos espacios definidos como “mediterráneos” con importantes consecuencias geopolíticas.
Topic:: History, Geopolitics, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, Arctic, and Mediterranean

282. Geopolítica del Espacio Exterior

Author:: Josep Baqués
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: En el campo militar hemos pasado a considerar el espacio como un dominio más, a añadir a los tradicionales (tierra, mar y aire, y, si acaso, el ciberespacio). Esto da cuenta de una novedad, que nos obliga a analizar en qué punto nos encontramos, tanto a nivel tecnológico, como en su impacto en la competición entre grandes potencias, que ha regresado al primer plano, pese a las buenas intenciones del derecho internacional. Este artículo muestra que, lejos de esas buenas intenciones, y de la letra de algunos tratados que, como el OST, aspiraban al establecimiento de un régimen cooperativo, estamos inmersos en una lógica de corte realista, que, en buena medida, traslada al espacio las tensiones existentes en los demás dominios.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Space, and Satellites
Political Geography:: Global Focus

283. From TikTok to Terrorism? The Online Radicalization of European Lone Attackers since October 7, 2023

Author:: Nicolas Stockhammer
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel marked a pivotal moment not only in Middle East security policy but also in the global Islamist and particularly jihadi propaganda landscape. This article examines how the ensuing digital “victimhood-revenge” narrative rapidly spread across platforms like TikTok, fueling a new wave of radicalization among adolescents in Europe. Drawing on six European case studies from 2023 to 2025—including foiled and executed attacks in Vienna, Solingen, and Zurich—this article identifies a recurring radicalization pattern involving emotionally vulnerable, digitally native individuals exposed to algorithm-driven Islamist content in social media, but predominantly on TikTok. The analysis conceptualizes this process through the lens of a “Virtual Caliphate Complex” and explores TikTok’s role as a low-threshold gateway into extremist ecosystems. By analyzing cross-platform mobilization dynamics, aesthetic framing, and the hybridization of lone-actor terrorism with online support networks, the article underscores the urgency of adapting P/CVE strategies to algorithmic environments. The conclusion suggests possible policy emphasis on content moderation, digital literacy, and platform accountability—particularly in the context of the European Union’s Digital Services Act legislation. The article contends that today’s prevailing Islamist radicalization pattern reflects not only ideological motivations but also youth-online-culture dynamics and algorithmic influence.
Topic:: Radicalization, Innovation, Recruitment, TikTok, October 7, and Lone Wolf Attacks
Political Geography:: Europe

284. Regional Terrorism Trends Before and After October 7

Author:: Suat Cubukcu, Eoin B. Healy, and Adam Blackwell
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel triggered a rapid escalation in regional conflict and reshaped the operational landscape of Iran-backed violent non-state actors. Using data from the Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center’s GRID database, this article compares patterns of terrorist violence in the Middle East one year before and after the attack. The analyses reveal a dramatic rise in drone, rocket, and missile attacks—particularly by Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—against U.S., Israeli, and maritime targets. Despite the volume, these attacks caused limited casualties due to advanced U.S. and Israeli defenses, signaling a broader shift toward low-cost, high-frequency stand-off warfare, causing disruption over decisive outcomes. While Hezbollah and Hamas suffered major losses at the hands of Israeli forces, the Houthis emerged as Iran’s most active and disruptive proxy. The analysis underscores a post-October 7 reconfiguration of the proxy landscape and highlights the strategic limits of Iran’s indirect warfare and its eroded ability to deter direct Israeli attacks on Iran.
Topic:: Terrorism, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, Proxy Groups, Regional Security, October 7, and Non State Actors
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

285. Generation Jihad: The Profile and Modus Operandi of Minors Involved in Recent Islamist Terror Plots in Europe

Author:: Erik Hacker
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Europe has largely avoided major jihadi attacks in recent years, though experts and officials from the United Nations as well as the Five Eyes intelligence alliance have repeatedly warned of the heightened terror threat increasingly linked to a new generation of teenagers, who radicalize primarily online. Yet, little is known about the specific profiles and modi operandi of these underage suspects. As this trend shows no signs of waning, a clearer understanding of these minors’ specific characteristics is vital in order to adapt counterterrorism responses and sustain the current high rate of foiled plots. This article offers an in-depth account of the background and attack planning behaviors of 44 minors who planned to carry out jihadi terror attacks in Europe since 2022 but were arrested before they could act. By comparing their characteristics to adult terror suspects, it highlights the distinctive traits of this new generation of Islamist extremists and explores the strategic implications for counterterrorism efforts moving forward.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamism, and Youth
Political Geography:: Europe

286. Feature Commentary: An Assessment of Operation Rough Rider

Author:: Gregory Johnsen
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: On March 15, 2025, the United States launched an offensive against the Houthis in Yemen with the stated goal of restoring “freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea and ending Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. Fifty-two days later, on May 5, the United States ended its operations in Yemen following an agreement with the Houthis that the group would no longer target U.S. military vessels or U.S. flagged ships. This article provides an assessment of that campaign, known as Operation Rough Rider, looking at what the United States hit, who was killed, and what it cost as well as how the Houthis have rebounded and regrouped, the current situation on the ground in Yemen, and what is likely to come next.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Houthis, Shipping, Military Operations, and Operation Rough Rider
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

287. The Escalation of U.S. Airstrikes in Somalia and the Role of Perceived Threats to the U.S. Homeland

Author:: David Sterman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In 2025, the United States substantially increased the pace of its airstrikes in Somalia. At the same time, it increasingly cited not just regional security rationales for the increased pace of strikes but also rationales rooted in an assessed potential threat to the U.S. homeland from Somalia—in particular from the Islamic State-Somalia’s recruitment of foreign fighters. This article examines the increased pace of strikes, the rationales that have been cited to explain the increase, and what existing evidence reveals about the potential threat to the U.S. homeland. It also underscores the need for greater clarity from the U.S. government regarding its assessment of the extent of such a threat.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Al Shabaab, Airstrikes, and Military Operations
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, and United States of America

288. A View from the CT Foxhole: Richard Feakes, Former Australian Ambassador for Counter-Terrorism

Author:: Don Rassler and Sean Morrow
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Richard Feakes served as Australia’s Ambassador for Counter-Terrorism from May 2023 to November 2024. Prior to that, he was the Commonwealth Deputy Counter Terrorism Coordinator, Australia’s Ambassador to Afghanistan, and Deputy Head of Mission in Iraq. He has served in a number of strategic and national security positions across the Australian government, including as Assistant Secretary for Afghanistan and Pakistan and as a Senior Adviser within the Prime Minister’s Department.
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Partnerships, Interview, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: Australia and Indo-Pacific

289. A View from the CT Foxhole: Adam Hadley, Executive Director, Tech Against Terrorism

Author:: Don Rassler
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Adam Hadley CBE is the Founder and Executive Director of Tech Against Terrorism, a public-private partnership dedicated to disrupting terrorists online. Tech Against Terrorism was established as an initiative of the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED). Hadley is also the CEO of QuantSpark, an AI innovation consultancy.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Interview
Political Geography:: Global Focus

290. Understanding China’s New Counterterrorism Ambitions in Africa

Author:: Jason Warner
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: China has recently been pursuing a much more aggressive stance in African security affairs, including playing a more engaged role in counterterrorism (CT). Where is China engaged in CT in Africa, and by what means? What challenges would China face in engaging more robustly in African CT? Most importantly, why is China newly expressing interest in engaging in the African CT landscape at this particular moment? In the main, this piece argues that despite ostensible rationales related to self-defense of economic interests and solidarity with African states, at its core, Beijing’s primary motivations for entering the African CT space are to diversify its means of influence in Africa beyond its historical “economics-first” approach. Recognizing that engaging in African CT is a high-risk but potentially high-reward activity (which other global powers have recently engaged in with mixed results), Beijing likely believes it has a new genre of CT assistance—less kinetic, more economic, and rooted in equitable partnerships—that represents a fundamentally new and productive means of gaining influence in Africa. Yet, China faces challenges in its African CT pursuits, including reconciling whether its cautious ethos can stomach the turbulent landscape of African terrorism; how to deal with a saturated African CT space; and how not to fall victim to the same pitfalls as other global powers that have recently engaged in African CT. Nevertheless, if China can prove that its cautious non-military-first approach is fundamentally different from existing CT value propositions from external states, Beijing could deeply rival, and potentially replace, Washington as the partner of choice for security cooperation in Africa.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Strategic Competition, Foreign Influence, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

291. Feature Commentary: Confronting Cartels: Military Considerations South of the Border

Author:: Brian Michael Jenkins
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Possible U.S. military action against Mexico’s drug cartels poses unique challenges. The situation is complicated, and the United States must be prepared for possible counteractions. The cartels are not a single actor. If attacked, they may avoid direct confrontation, accepting temporary losses, anticipating that the United States will not sustain a long campaign. Or Mexico’s cartels may respond violently, exploiting U.S. vulnerabilities in Mexico—and possibly north of the border. The government of Mexico is a separate actor. It can assist or undermine U.S. efforts. Past government campaigns against the cartels led to soaring rates of criminal violence. Chaos in Mexico could have serious implications for U.S. homeland security. The United States needs a ‘Red Team’ to examine a range of scenarios. The article proceeds in six parts: Part I contrasts recent U.S. military actions in Yemen and Iran with possible military action in Mexico. Part II examines perceptions of the threat. Part III examines how the history of U.S.-Mexico relations will shape the battlefield. Part IV reviews our own experience in combating foreign drug traffickers, offering some preliminary takeaways. Part V examines possible options. Part VI looks at how the cartels might react, how the United States might be forced to respond—and how other adversaries of the United States might attempt to exploit the situation.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Borders, Organized Crime, Cartels, and Military Operations
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

292. Uzbek Foreign Fighter Groups in the Syrian Jihad: The Evolution of KIB and KTJ from 2011 through 2025

Author:: Kathleen Collins
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime to the forces of Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS) revealed the ongoing significance of multiple foreign fighter groups in Syria. These militias were instrumental in supporting HTS during its campaign for Damascus last fall. Two primarily ethnic Uzbek fighter groups that originated in Central Asia were prominent among them: the Imam Bukhari Battalion (Katibat Imam al-Bukhari, KIB) and the Tavhid and Jihad Battalion (Katibat Tavhid va Jihod, KTJ). Each had pledged allegiance to al-Qa`ida and fought alongside al-Qa`ida’s Syrian branch Jabhat al-Nusra. Each remained closely connected to al-Qa`ida even after al-Nusra rebranded as HTS. This article traces the origins and development of these Uzbek-led militias and argues that they constitute a resilient force of battle-hardened fighters, demonstrating remarkable staying power in Syria. Furthermore, this article demonstrates that KIB and KTJ still embrace a salafi-jihadi ideology and goals. It also emphasizes KIB’s and KTJ’s ongoing ties to al-Qa`ida and the Taliban and recommends that policymakers and counterterrorism experts consider the implications of their continued presence in Syria under the new regime, as well as the potential consequences if they leave Syria.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Syrian War, Jihad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

293. Commentary: The Dangers of Overreliance on Generative AI in the CT Fight

Author:: Nicholas Clark
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The explosive rise in generative artificial intelligence (AI) use has sparked debate over its applicability in military domains such as counterterrorism (CT). This article critically evaluates the role of large language models (LLMs) in CT, arguing that their utility remains limited and potentially detrimental when applied indiscriminately. After providing a high-level overview of the mathematical foundations of LLMs, the article demonstrates how these tools can produce misleading or confidently incorrect outputs. Through case studies and empirical findings, this article underscores the cognitive risks of overreliance on AI in CT planning and intelligence operations, including reduced analytical engagement and inhibited creativity among operators. While generative AI may assist in automating routine tasks, it lacks the capacity for nuanced judgment, uncertainty quantification, and dynamic responsiveness critical to effective CT work. The article concludes by advocating for a shift in focus toward enhancing education in probabilistic reasoning, such as Bayesian inference, and building robust data governance infrastructures. Such foundational improvements are prerequisites for any effective or responsible integration of AI into CT domains.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Artificial Intelligence, and Large Language Models (LLMs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

294. Moving Targets: Implications of the Russo-Ukrainian War for Drone Terrorism

Author:: David Hambling
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Small and commercially available drones in the hands of violent extremists pose a rapidly growing terrorist threat. This article examines that threat in the light of the invasion of Ukraine. Consumer drones such as DJI Mavics, FPV racing drones, and Shahed-style one-way attack drones have become potent weapons. Their affordability, accessibility, and adaptability enable precision strikes, bypass traditional defenses, and democratize air power for state and non-state actors alike. This article details how these drones have been used in Ukraine—from grenade-dropping quadcopters to long-range strategic attacks—and highlights their potential adoption by violent extremist organizations (VEOs). The second part of the article assesses the implications for global counterterrorism, emphasizing the psychological impact, scalability, and low operational risk of drone attacks. It concludes by outlining countermeasures, including electronic jamming, physical barriers, kinetic interception, and the growing role of drone-on-drone defense, urging a comprehensive and adaptive response to this multifaceted and accelerating threat.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Counter-terrorism, Drones, Innovation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

295. Tehran’s Homeland Option: Terror Pathways for Iran to Strike in the United States

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The 12-day Iran war may be over, but the threat of Iranian reprisal attacks now looms large, and will for the foreseeable future. European authorities exposed plots in Sweden and Germany even as the war was being waged, and Israeli authorities issued a warning over potential attacks in the United Arab Emirates a couple of weeks later, specifically citing heightened concerns in the wake of the war with Iran. Iranian operatives or their agents could also attempt to carry out attacks inside the United States, leveraging what U.S. counterterrorism officials have describe as a “homeland option” developed over years. Given the U.S. role in bombing the Fordow nuclear complex, it should not be a surprise that U.S. authorities quickly issued a terrorism advisory warning of potential Iranian plots in the homeland. Drawing on past cases of Iranian plots in the United States and elsewhere, this article explores the primary pathways available to Iran conduct or enable a terrorism act in the United States. These include deploying Iranian agents, criminal surrogates, terrorist proxies, or actively seeking to inspire lone offenders to carry out attacks within the homeland.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Armed Conflict, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

296. Militant Violence in Jammu and Kashmir Post-Abrogation of Article 370

Author:: Animesh Roul
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: This article presents a chronological and thematic analysis of militant violence in Jammu and Kashmir from the abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution in August 2019 to July 2025. It traces three distinct phases: an initial decline in attacks due to lockdowns and security restrictions (2019-2020); a resurgence marked by hybrid militancy, targeted killings, and intimidation of civilians (2021-2023); and a lethal escalation involving high-profile and audacious assaults, intensified counterterrorism operations, and cross-border tensions (2024-2025). The April 2025 Pahalgam massacre—which killed 26 people, mostly Hindus—marked a turning point, prompting India’s limited military offensive Operation Sindoor against militant bases in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, followed by Operation Mahadev to track and eliminate the militants involved in the violence. The article examines these developments to assess the evolving threat, highlighting how militancy has shifted toward hybrid façade units backed by Pakistan-based legacy terror groups.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Territorial Disputes, Violence, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, India, and Jammu and Kashmir

297. A View from the CT Foxhole: James Stack, Director, Great Plains Diagnostic Network

Author:: Don Rassler and Kristina Hummel
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: James Stack, Ph.D., is an internationally recognized leader in the field of plant biosecurity. A professor in the Department of Plant Pathology at Kansas State University since 2003, Dr. Stack provided leadership in the development of the National Plant Diagnostic Network (NPDN) and became regional director of the Great Plains Diagnostic Network (GPDN), one of the five regional networks, soon after it was formed. From 2006 to 2008, he served as the director of KSU’s Biosecurity Research Institute, a biocontainment facility for plant, animal, and human health. Dr. Stack’s research focuses on genome-informed diagnostics for plant-pathogenic bacteria to the subspecific and population levels of discrimination, as well as research on the epidemiology and ecology of toxigenic fungi and bacteria. He speaks regularly on plant biosecurity topics, to include at the U.S. Naval War College and the National Academy of Sciences, among other forums.
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Biosecurity, and Interview
Political Geography:: Global Focus

298. The Changing Character of Terrorism and U.S. Counterterrorism

Author:: Don Rassler, Kristina Hummel, Brian Dodwell, and Ned Curry
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The competition between terror movements and counterterrorism forces is an interactive and iterative game, as the actions taken by one side are designed to defeat, circumvent, or shape the activity taken by the opposing players. To better understand these interactive dynamics, it is important to evaluate how terrorism and counterterrorism have been evolving. This article first takes high-level stock of how the spread, structure, scale, and speed of terrorism have been changing in recent years and highlights key challenges and implications for counterterrorism. It then evaluates the United States’ ongoing effort to find a sustainable counterterrorism path, a journey that has been filled with challenges, benefits, dilemmas, and opportunities, and discusses how key factors have been shaping the direction, reach, and pace of change. An important takeaway from these reviews is that while the threat of international terrorism is not what it used to be, there is a lot of change occurring across the terrorism landscape. U.S. counterterrorism has also been undergoing some important shifts, and there are open questions about whether U.S. CT forces and assets will be spread further. If not managed carefully, change taking place across these two ‘systems’ could interact in ways that may disrupt CT progress.
Topic:: National Security, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

299. The Best of Times, the Worst of Times: The Repressed Islamic State Affiliates

Author:: Daniel Milton
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: It has been more than 10 years since Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi ascended the pulpit in the al-Nuri mosque to announce that the group known as the Islamic State had, at least in its own eyes, fulfilled the requirement to become a caliphate. In doing so, he opened an era of expansion for the Islamic State in which it welcomed numerous affiliates into its fold from all over the world. While some of those affiliates remain to this day, others appear to have faded away, at least when it comes to carrying out operations. This article explores these “repressed” affiliates in an effort to provide a brief overview of potential reasons behind their decline. The stories of each of these affiliates contain both similarities and differences. The repression of Islamic State affiliates seems to be the result of a combination of factors, ranging from military power of external actors to in-group conflict to an inability to gain a foothold among a target population. The importance of nuanced counterterrorism efforts, as opposed to a one-size-fits-all approach, is the main takeaway of this analysis.
Topic:: Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

300. Foreign Terrorist Fighters: A Threat in Stasis

Author:: Kim Cragin
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: This article examines the historical trajectory of “foreign terrorist fighters” associated with the Islamic State and its antecedents, al-Qa`ida and the Arab Afghans. The article argues that the threat of foreign fighters today is best understood as being in stasis. Foreign fighters continue to pursue external operations against the West. They also transfer new tactics, techniques, and procedures between conflict zones. These patterns are not new. Beyond these historical patterns, foreign terrorist fighters have become increasingly adept at reaching out to new sympathizers and serving as interlocutors between Islamic State affiliates in conflict zones and their sympathizers. FTFs also have utilized end-to-end encryption technologies, generative artificial intelligence, and cryptocurrencies to magnify their impact. Nevertheless, it is not yet time for alarm. Countries have strengthened their laws, intelligence-sharing, and law enforcement coordination over the past decade. If governments continue to build on this collective effort and devote resources toward mitigating foreign fighter flows, the threat should remain in stasis.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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