Content Type: Journal Article / Publication Year: within 3 Years

2001. Dangerous, Yet Not So Unique. Characteristics of the Chinese Social Credit System

Author:: Jan Pabisiak
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Since 2015, the Social Credit System - an initiative of the government of the People’s Republic of China which aims to strengthen trustworthiness of the business entities and citizens, promote obedience to law and customs, and develop the Communist Party of China’s control over social trends and potential threats to the political stability - has been attracting worldwide attention. International media portrays the System as a mechanism which leads China to totalitarianism and destroys hope for development of the Chinese democratic movement. Therefore, interests of both sides, the West and China, are seen as contradictory. Harmful beliefs like the one that Chinese still export products of poor quality and on the Chinese side that the Western ideals lead to demoralization are common thanks to some sort of Occidental and Oriental propaganda. That is why it is necessary to compile and analyze the known facts regarding the Social Credit System, which in contrast to the media narration turns out to be a tool with interesting capabilities, not necessarily contradictory to the other major civilizations’ values.
Topic:: Governance, Business, Surveillance, and Credit
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2002. Illuminating Shanghai: Light, Heritage, Power

Author:: Karolina Pawlik
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper explores the complex connection between heritage, light and power in Shanghai since the late 19th Century, and seeks a new understanding of how mutually coupled legacies of modernity, socialism and cosmopolitanism continue to shape this city’s unique identity and image. It focuses on the recent ideological remake of the skyline along the Huangpu River, achieved largely through the flamboyant illumination designed in 2018. Combining a number of visual and textual sources with fieldwork, it reveals the persistent symbolic role the city has played in a triumphant socialist cause, and assesses how past promises of a new Shanghai and a bright future for China have been sustained in the Reform Era. It forms a preliminary attempt to depict what the author argues should be perceived and studied as the engineering of a new propaganda medium which intersects with urban space governance. The implications of this project are discussed in the context of the threats and opportunities for Shanghai in terms of maintaining the city’s unique character and meaning coming from its own history and culture, rather than in terms of Shanghai simply being a vehicle for China’s modernity.
Topic:: Media, Propaganda, Urban, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:: China, Shanghai, and Asia

2003. A Comparison of Nisga’a Self-Government and International Standards of Indigenous Self-Determination

Author:: Agnieszka Szpak
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The paper concentrates on the right to self-determination of indigenous peoples on the basis of the Nisga’a Nation. The author analyzes the most important provisions of the Nisga’a Final Agreement, in particular those envisaging self-determination of the Nisga’a Nation. Then the author briefly examines the Nisga’a Constitution which may be regarded as a means to implement the Nisga’a Final Agreement. It shows how the Nisga’a selfgovernance model fits into the provisions on self-determination of indigenous peoples. The thesis of this paper is that the Nisga’a self-governance is consonant with international legal standards expressed in the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Nisga’a selfgovernment model is much more than just cultural autonomy: it actually amounts to political autonomy. This subject is worth exploring because it may serve as a pattern to be followed with reference to other indigenous peoples, not only in Canada.
Topic:: Governance, Self Determination, Leadership, and Indigenous
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

2004. Possibility of Implementing the Concept of the Intermarium in the Context of Militant Democracy in Poland During and After the Coronavirus Pandemic

Author:: Kamila Rezmer-Płotka
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Intermarium is one of the most important Polish geopolitical concepts. This article considers it within the category of militant democracy. It allows to explore the process of militant democracy, that is, introducing restrictions by legal means. Most restrictions have recently been introduced due to a coronavirus pandemic. Therefore, the article undertakes to examine the potential for implementation of the concept of the Intermarium during the pandemic and shortly after its end. The study uses a qualitative analysis of sources. Indicators relevant to the study of the process of militant democracy were distinguished based on the body of literature. Results: The traditional concept of the Intermarium erodes due to natural causes. Currently, Poland is more inclined to the concept of the Three Seas. In addition, in the face of the analysis that was carried out, it seems that in a pandemic situation we are observing the end of the paradigm of liberal democracy in this case.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Democracy, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

2005. Research on Systemic Transformation in the Countries of Central Asia

Author:: Tadeusz Bodio
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article presents the goals, tasks, organization and major stages of implementation of the international programme of research on transformation in the countries Central Asia. The research has been conducted since 1997 by a team of political scientists from the University of Warsaw in cooperation with representatives of other Polish and foreign universities.
Topic:: Politics, Social Movement, Modernization, and Transition
Political Geography:: Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

2006. Political Trust vs. Turnout in Modern Democracies

Author:: Izabela Kapsa
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article analyzes the relations between political trust - one of the most important values in the life of political communities - and election-related behaviors in the narrow meaning of voting. Researchers investigate the phenomenon of decreasing turnout as one of the expressions of democratic crisis. When studying such a complex problem, it is essential to search for multi-theme causes which might be helpful in understanding the topic and possibly finding a solution for it. The author of this article, while assuming the correctness of analyzes conducted thus far, which indicate that the problem lies in weaker attachment to political parties, less interest in politics and inadequate tools, raises questions whether the decreasing turnout in individual states may be related to the level of trust that citizens put in political institutions and whether there is a relation between these both indicators. In order to answer these questions, the author employs a quantitative analysis of data which derive from reports containing percentage levels of political trust and turnout in the elections, a comparative analysis, as well as an overview of literature on the subject.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2007. Changes in the Electoral Code and Their Impact on the Security of the Election The Origin for Discussion Based on Selected Comments

Author:: Karol Pachnik
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: After the local government elections in Poland in 2018, the adopted solutions aimed at increasing the security of the elections were reviewed. Some of the solutions adopted so far have been abandoned, such as transmissions from the polling station, while others have been minimized (the division of the precinct electoral commissions in the precinct electoral commission for voting in the region and the precinct electoral commission for determining the results of voting in the region). In public opinion polls, the National Electoral Commission achieved record of confidence.
Topic:: Security, Elections, Democracy, and Local
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

2008. Challenges of Georgia’s Pension System

Author:: Jaba Urotadze
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: In 2018, a mandatory funded pension model (second pillar) was introduced in Georgia. At present, the Georgian pension system has three pillars, but the reform does not apply to current pensioners. If society does not trust all three pillars, the chances of reversing the pension reform will rise for two reasons. First, the replacement rate from the first pillar (state redistributive pension) is much lower than in any of the OECD member states. Second, for the majority of participants of the second pillar, pension payments will start in 20-25 years’ time. Such a long period creates uncertainty for many about whether long-term economic growth will be achieved, which in turn would make possible an adequate level of retirement income. This paper attempts to identify means of increasing replacement rates for the state redistributive pension and coverage of the voluntary funded third pillar. The research provides recommendations to enhance the Georgian pension system.
Topic:: Reform, Social Services, Pension, and Public Service
Political Geography:: Europe and Georgia

2009. Language and Politics in India and China: A Cross-Cultural Comparative Study

Author:: Daniel Komarzyca and Janina Fras
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper provides insights into the relationship between language and politically relevant aspects of culture in India and China which are as follows: attitude toward revolution and tradition, the domination of politics over religion or vice versa, and a concern for the liberty of the individual. The paper introduces a novel approach to the comparative study of civilizations by advancing the political-linguistic explanation. In so doing, it combines Hajime Nakamura’s hypothesis of the strict connection between language and culture (understood as a way of thinking) with Samuel P. Huntington’s emphasis on the impact of cultural differences on the political dimension of society – so that our explanatory model can be expressed as follows: language→culture→politics. As far as language is concerned, the focus is on the basic structure of Sanskrit and Chinese; besides, special attention is given to Indian and Chinese philosophies of language. Culturally, the most relevant schools of Hindu philosophy may be called “ultraconservative” since they tend to ground unchanging meaning firmly in metaphysics and rely on the supreme authority of ancient religious texts. In contrast, the Chinese typically considered language a social mechanism for shaping our behavior (so the relation of language and society is the most crucial); they also expressed clearly divergent views on naming. In short, at least four distinctive perspectives are essential: (1) conservative Confucianism, (2) anti-traditional and highly authoritarian Legalism, (3) egalitarian and linguistically skeptical Laozian Daoism, (4) nonconformist and proto-libertarian Zhuangzian Daoism.
Topic:: Politics, Culture, Philosophy, Language, and Identity
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

2010. China in the Geopolitical Imaginations of the Polish Pop Music after 1989

Author:: Jaroslaw Macala
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper focuses on the issue of geopolitics in the pop culture interpretation as illustrated by the Polish pop music after the year 1989. Songs selected from various trends of the Polish popular music made the source material of the text. The primary study method involved the analysis of the lyrics discourse. The Polish geopolitical imaginations used to revolve around the basis axis of better West and worse East, symbolized mainly by Russia, but its image was transferred over entire Asia. Asia, including China, was scarcely present in the geopolitical imaginations contained in the pop music, which, at the same time, reflected the irrelevant interest of Polish elites in global problems. The discourses in the musical texts about China frequently adopted the West’s perspective, where Poland made part of as seen by our elites. The rhetoric strategy concerning China in popular music featured two essential views, which references Orientalism as specified by E. Said. It explains the frequent use of the postcolonial discourse by the Polish elites, also the music ones, which promoted the supremacy of the West over the rest of the world and the universal nature of the Western world values which were meant to be implemented into other civilizations and nations for their own sake. China was presented as a growing threat for the dominance of the West, the USA in the first place, as an alternative model of globalization and international deal putting offthe world by its cultural and geopolitical alienation, as well as indicating negative effects for Poland
Topic:: Culture, Geopolitics, Music, and popular culture
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2011. Between Nation-Building and Contestation for Power: The Place of Party Politics in Nigeria, 1923-2019

Author:: Adetunji Ojo Ogunyemi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: By May 29, 2019, Nigeria’s Fourth Republic and democracy had achieved an unprecedented 20 unbroken years of active partisan politics and representative democracy. The First Republic had lasted barely three years (1963-1966); the Second Republic and its democratic institutions lasted just four years (1979-1983) while the Third Republic (19921993) could barely hold its head for one year. Hence, by mid-2019, not many analysts have congratulated Nigeria for its longest democratic experience since its independence from Britain in 1960, but hardly did any of them identify the core reasons for such a sustained rule of democratic ethos for two decades. In this paper, we show the origin and practice of political parties in Nigeria. We argue that the country had succeeded in its Fourth Republic as a democratic country because its law and constitution together with the political culture of the people had permitted multiparty democracy by which governments had been formed, political inclusion and popular participation ensured, and public policies initiated. We also present an analysis of party politicking in the country from its beginning in 1923 and conclude that Nigeria has achieved meaningful and sustainable dividends of democracy in her Fourth Republic because of a maturing culture of partisan politics.
Topic:: Nationalism, State Building, Party System, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

2012. Campaigns and Electioneering: Reflecting on the 2015 General Elections in Nigeria

Author:: Emmanuel Osewe Akubor
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Historically, campaigns are recognized as a vital part of electioneering since it contains the ideas that the candidate wants to share with the voters, especially regarding policy issues and the administration’s focus. It aims to get those who agree with their ideas to support them when running for a political position. The message often consists of several talking points about policy issues. However, a study of Nigeria’s situation, with specific reference to the 2015 Campaigns and Electioneering, revealed that the main content of campaigns was hate speeches. Therefore, this paper seeks to bring out the main issues of campaigns in Nigeria’s electoral system and why it has often led to electoral violence over the years. The qualitative method is used for this particular research. Data obtained from primary and secondary sources were deployed to carry out the study with an analytical and narrative historical approach. It includes historical, descriptive, and analytical approaches based on gathered evidence. This research’s primary source is based on field investigations conducted in the Nigerian area and surrounding territories. Among other things, the data collection process includes semi-structured interviews with selected individuals. The research also uses historical documents from the national archives, relying on previous research conducted on society, administrative development, and documentary data taken from newspaper accounts, diaries, letters, and verbal reports. This research’s position is that campaigns over the years in Nigeria, unlike what is obtainable in some parts of the world where policy issues form the backbone of campaign message have basically on persons, character assassination, violence, and abusive (hate) speeches. The paper argues that this campaign strategy often leads to electoral violence before, during, and after elections. The paper, therefore, concludes that only issue-based campaigns can guarantee peaceful and credible elections in Nigeria.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Campaigning
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

2013. Worsening Women Trafficking, Multidimensional Poverty and Gender Inequality: The Vulnerabilities, Playouts and Governmental Responses in West Africa

Author:: Tunde Abioro and Omolara Akinyemi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Modern governments in modern states in third world countries are overwhelmed with social circumstances that have forced citizens to resort to self-help. Also, prevalent unclear demographic and globalization issues are sometimes neutral lines of justification for either transit or destination posture of the West African states. Concisely, poverty issues have continuously permeated the West Africa region’s fabric, and the challenges seem protracting. It has implications for mobility, (women) trafficking, and human security, among others. The quantitative approach adopted profiled index while evaluating and descriptive methods explained the content. Among other findings, lack of national data and proper immigration service is obvious. Thus, adequate data for national planning is recommended. Further, ongoing regional and national initiatives for possible integration and collaboration to address challenges are advocated.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Poverty, Sex Trafficking, Governance, Inequality, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

2014. Indian and Australian Maritime Security Doctrines in the Indian Ocean Region in the 21st Century. Christian Bueger’s Matrix of Maritime Security Approach

Author:: Tomasz Lukaszuk
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article’s purpose is the multidimensional analysis of the evolution of Australia and India’s maritime policies and their impact on the endeavors to develop their maritime cooperation in the 21st century. Two research questions are to be answered in that connection: what changes and why India and Australia introduced to enhance their maritime security doctrines in the 21st century and why those changes contributed to the more in-depth cooperation in the second decade of the 21st century. The hypothesis based on those questions argues that not only the rise of China but also global processes in maritime affairs - such as the growing number of state and non-state actors, as well as the interdependence between the fields of human activities at sea - pushed the littorals like India and Australia to turn their maritime strength from coastal to oceanic and convinced them too to cooperate. That process was accompanied by the convergence of the security perceptions by both countries (India and Australia) and the mutual understanding of common interests in all the elements of modern maritime security. The Christian Bueger’s matrix serves as an explanatory framework to highlight the dynamics and broader context of the changes in India and Australia’s maritime security doctrines in the 21st century. It provides the conceptual framework for explaining closer cooperation between these two countries. The article analyzes India and Australia’s maritime strategies, focusing on four variables from Bueger’s matrix: national security, economic development, marine environment, and human security. In those dependent variables, particular elements of their activities serving as sub-variables are highlighted: in national security - shaping the seapower; in economic development - Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing; in the marine environment - climate change mitigation; in human security - the fight against piracy and human trafficking. The choice of the mentioned elements is justified by their role in Australia and India’s activities within maritime strategies and their influence on other elements of the maritime security matrix. The article starts with a description of Bueger’s matrix in the context of the evolution of the maritime security concept in international relations. The second part outlines the centrality of the Indian Ocean in Indian and Australian modern military and economic security. The third part explores and explains the roots of Indian maritime security thinking, and the fourth investigates the evolution in Australia’s attitude toward maritime affairs. The final part presents the developments in Indo-Australian bilateral cooperation in the 21st century.
Topic:: Security, Environment, Maritime, and Oceans and Seas
Political Geography:: Australia

2015. Institutional Responsibility for Mass Atrocity Crimes with Thomas Pogge

Author:: Jed Lea-Henry
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Humanitarian intervention and the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) are currently limited and encumbered by a pervasive absence of a political will. In states’ calculations, political considerations are constantly winning-out over the moral considerations of saving at-risk segments of our planet. While institutional and legal reforms undoubtedly play a role in addressing this challenge, such reforms and structures have existed for generations now, and have largely failed to bridge this gap from ‘moral necessity to political action’. What has been lacking is a moral understanding of humanitarian crises that is capable of reliably motivating the international community to undertake remedying actions, rather than merely expressions of concern. Such a moral foundation is achievable through institutional cosmopolitanism, an understanding of humanitarian intervention as satisfactions of our negative duties, and specifically the work of Thomas Pogge.
Topic:: Genocide, Human Rights, Atrocities, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2016. The Battle of Brexit. Analysis of the 2019 United Kingdom General Election Results

Author:: Bartłomiej H. Toszek
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article presents the main parties (i.e. the Conservative Party, Labor Party, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party) results of the 2019 UK general election as well as an analysis of the most important issues (i.e. correct identification of voters’ expectations, simplicity and clarity of the messages, leaders’ personalities) which determined each party success or loss. The author proves that since Brexit was the primary focus of voters, the level of support for particular parties remained dependent on the solutions presented in this issue. This basis explains why the Conservatives in the whole UK and the SNP in Scotland won (and the Labor Party and the Liberal Democrats lost) the battle of Brexit.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Nativism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

2017. The Issue of Ideological Changes in the Context of the Polish Political Parties - Theoretical Models and Their Exemplifications

Author:: Michal Niebylski
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article aims to present and discuss five theoretical models explaining the issue of ideological changes in Polish political parties. The paper is to shed light on an ideology’s dynamic nature and the process of building ideology in the political parties’ environment. The article features a discussion on the circumstances favoring the implementation of ideological changes and the methods used by parties to implement changes in their ideologies. The paper adopts two research hypotheses: 1) party ideologies are developed and modified by political parties in response to the changing (social, political, economic) circumstances in the inter-party rivalry. 2) The process of ideological changes serves political parties to lead an effective inter-party rivalry. The paper establishes that the factors with scientifically documented impact on party behavior in ideological terms are as follows: electoral result (parties that achieved a result below their expectations are more eager to revise their ideologies), political competition’s activity (parties react to ideological changes of their direct rivals), electorate preferences (political forces can change their approach in crucial issues to reflect the dominant views in their electorates) and acceptance of free-market principles by the main political actors. An analysis of Polish parties’ behaviors and the gathered source material also demonstrates that the parties’ inclination to implement ideological changes depends on organizational factors.
Topic:: Politics, Ideology, Models, and Party System
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

2018. Autarchy of Political Science and the Methodological Functions of Object Knowledge. Epistemological Analysis

Author:: Michal R. Wesierski
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Applying external scientific knowledge - i.e. knowledge achieved in the field of disciplines and sub-disciplines related to political science - in fulfiling such methodological functions as explanation and prevision (forecasting) is frequently approached in meta-scientific and meta-theoretical considerations as conducted on the ground of the family of scientific disciplines constituted by the sciences of politics. These functions can be ascribed to the purely epistemological aspect of scientific activity, not its institutional and organizational aspects. The dispute regarding the explanatory autonomy of political science is fallacious. From the logical and methodological point of view, the institutional “affiliation” of object knowledge, which constitutes a premise in complex inferences, does not play a role in the fulfilment of the assumed cognitive tasks; what is important instead is its epistemological credibility, as well as the goals of the research strategy selected by a given scholar.
Topic:: Research, Political Science, Academia, and Methods
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2019. Restrictions of Freedom of Press as an Indicator of Neo-Militant Democracy in Lithuania

Author:: Kamila Rezmer-Płotka
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: For the first time, Karl Loewenstein had used the category of militant democracy concerning the Weimar Republic. Although the world’s situation has changed, the process of political systems taking over non-democratic regimes’ characteristics is still visible. Among the indicators that can testify to becoming militant democracy, the restriction of freedom of the press is distinguished. This article attempts to analyze the dynamics of this process in Lithuania based on the Freedom House reports. The research question formulated is: What restrictions on the press’s freedom in Lithuania occurred in the period? The hypothesis is: In 2008-2019 in Lithuania, there has been a regular restriction on the freedom of the press, which may indicate a progressive process of militant democracy. Results: The hypothesis has been partially verified positively. During the period considered, there were regular restrictions on the freedom of the press but were justified mainly by circumstances, or immediate counter-action was taken.
Topic:: Democracy, Repression, Freedom of Press, and Militant Democracy
Political Geography:: Europe and Lithuania

2020. The Strategic Implications of Chinese-Iranian-Russian Naval Drills in the Indian Ocean

Author:: Syed Fazl-e Haider
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In early December, Major General Shao Yuanming (邵元明), the Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), traveled to the Islamic Republic of Iran for rare high-level military meetings. These meetings were held for the purpose of organizing a series of unprecedented joint naval drills between China, Iran, and Russia, which were held in the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Oman from December 27–29. The drills took place just as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran reached a crisis point at the end of 2019. The exercise also signified a deepening relationship between Iran and the PRC in economics, diplomacy, and security affairs. China and Russia have both increased military and economic cooperation with Iran in the year and a half since the U.S. government pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, while Iran’s government has repeatedly touted its deepening relations with China and Russia as a show of diplomatic strength, its allies have been less public about the growing relationship. In December, Iranian officials lauded the trilateral exercises—titled “Marine Security Belt”—as proof that Iran can outlast crippling sanctions with aid from its non-Western allies, and declared that the drills signaled a new triple alliance in the Middle East (Tasnim News, December 29, 2019). [1] By contrast, officials from Russia and the PRC were more restrained, framing the joint exercises as part of routine anti-piracy operations, highlighting their peacekeeping priorities and seeking to depoliticize the drills (South China Morning Post, September 23, 2019; Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Russia), October 2, 2019).
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Navy, Maritime, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

2021. Pakistan and CPEC Are Drawn Into the U.S.-China Rivalry

Author:: Adnan Aamir
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Leaders in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan were stunned in late November when a senior U.S. government official issued a strong verbal attack on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). On November 21 in Washington, D.C., U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asia Affairs Alice Wells spoke at length about the CPEC at a public event, criticizing multiple elements of the $62 billion flagship component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Ambassador Wells cast doubt upon claims that CPEC will generate sustainable economic development in Pakistan and criticized the project’s cost escalations and non-transparent processes of awarding CPEC contracts to Chinese firms. She appealed to Pakistan’s citizens to ask tough questions of the PRC regarding the CPEC and China’s related projects in Pakistan (U.S. State Department, November 21, 2019). In the past, the U.S. government had raised concerns over CPEC and China’s “debt-trap diplomacy,” but it had never presented such a direct and detailed set of criticisms. Ambassador Wells crossed that line—bringing the notoriously stalled out CPEC back under international scrutiny just after Chinese and Pakistani leaders had brokered a cautiously optimistic set of funding deals to jumpstart progress a month before (Ministry of Foreign Affairs (PRC), October 9, 2019). Chinese representatives were quick to respond to Ambassador Wells’s criticisms. The next day, PRC Ambassador to Islamabad Yao Jing(姚敬) said that he had been “shocked and surprised to see the remarks of Alice,” and that Ambassador Wells lacked accurate knowledge and had relied on “Western media ‘propaganda’” for her accusations. He called on the U.S. to “show your evidence, give me evidence” of specific cases of corruption related to the CPEC, and questioned whether Wells was taking potshots at the CPEC to score political points. Ambassador Yao challenged the U.S. to suit its actions to its words: “If there is any sincerity… [the U.S. should] come forward to invest in Pakistan. We [China] welcome U.S. investment in Pakistan.” (INP (Pakistan), November 22, 2019; VOA, November 22, 2019). In addition to refocusing negative attention on the CPEC, Assistant Secretary of State Wells’ speech drew a reluctant Pakistan further into the tumultuous U.S.-China political rivalry. Pakistan faces a balance of payments crisis and a severely weakened currency, which has led it to grow increasingly dependent on economic ties with China. At the same time, the Pakistani leadership has navigated a complex and multifaceted historic security and political partnership with the U.S. If, as Ambassador Wells’ statement seems to imply, Pakistan’s engagement with China is seen to come at the expense of its bilateral relationship with the U.S. – or vice-versa – then Pakistan’s delicate power balancing diplomacy will soon become even more tenuous.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2022. Making Foreign Companies Serve China: Outsourcing Propaganda to Local Entities in the Czech Republic

Author:: Martin Hala
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The fast build-up and equally sudden decline of Chinese influence in the Czech Republic offers an interesting case study of vulnerability and resilience in the newly democratic small states targeted by the united front operations of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). [1] Recent revelations about a powerful Czech financial corporation manipulating public opinion in favor of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) demonstrate the complex dynamics between political and economic actors—both Chinese and local—and how private companies are being leveraged to spread pro-PRC propaganda (Aktuálně, December 10, 2019 / English translation). The main vector of influence in the Czech Republic has been the PRC’s “economic diplomacy,” which downplays political differences and emphasizes the economic opportunities offered by closer relationships with China (Sinopsis, March 11, 2019; China Brief, May 9, 2019). In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), it builds on promises of investments into local economies still lagging behind those in Western Europe. The promised investments may or may not materialize, but the economic enticement alone creates a conducive environment for the cooptation of local political and business elites in a manner similar to more traditional united front tactics (China Brief, May 9, 2019). Apart from the promised investments by Chinese companies, the reverse allure may consist of market access in China for local companies, which may then be manipulated into becoming propaganda echo chambers for the CCP. The Czech Republic offers examples of both of these phenomena.
Topic:: Propaganda, Local, Private Sector, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Czech Republic

2023. Beijing Piles More Pressure on Taiwan after a Historic Victory by Tsai Ing-Wen

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: How will Beijing react to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s resounding re-election victory on January 11, when she garnered a historic 8 million votes, or 57.13 percent of the electorate? So far, Beijing’s response to this triumph by the candidate of the theoretically pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been relatively non-belligerent. The spokesman of the cabinet-level Taiwan Affairs Office said a few hours after the polls that Beijing would “insist on the basic objective of ‘peaceful unification and one country, two systems’,” even though he also indicated that Beijing would not tolerate “any form of ‘Taiwan independence’.” Another post-election commentary by the official Xinhua News Agency said that “the mainland firmly holds the initiative in bilateral relations.” In an article in the usually hawkish Global Times, Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin said Chinese society was “prepared for war with Taiwan independence,” but that it was not yet ready for “immediate warfare” (Xinhua, January 12; Phoenix TV News, January 12; Global Times, January 11; South China Morning Post, January 11). Observers of Taiwan Strait dynamics have noted that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, the highest-ranking decision-maker on Taiwan issues, was bitterly unhappy about the margin of Tsai’s victory; and that the commander-in-chief will likely order a series of measures to boost “war preparation,” squeeze Taiwan’s diplomatic space, suppress Taiwan’s economy, and nurture the so-called “fifth column” in Taiwan society (Chinatimes.com, January 12; HK01.com, January 11). The fifth column is a reference to Taiwanese politicians and businesspeople who, while professing to defend their island against Communist aggression, are proposing more communication and even “pro-unification talks” with Beijing as a result of their dependence (financial or otherwise) on the CCP.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

2024. The State Response to a Mystery Viral Outbreak in Central China

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In December, a mysterious outbreak of infectious disease emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan (Hubei Province). The epicenter of the outbreak was the Wuhan Huanan Seafood Market (武汉华南海鲜批发市场, Wuhan Haixian Pifa Shichang), which was closed by officials in Wuhan on January 1 pending further investigation of the origin of the disease (see accompanying images). As of January 11, public health officials in Wuhan stated that there were a total of 41 identified cases of infection, among which two persons had been discharged from treatment, seven were seriously ill, and one person had died; 739 other persons were identified as having contact with those infected, and were to be subject to medical observation (Wuhan Health Commission, January 11). Chinese researchers have identified the pathogen as a previously-unknown strain of coronavirus. This a large family of viruses—including the common cold, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)—that are zoonotic in origin (i.e., transferred via human-animal contact) and cause respiratory illnesses with widely varying levels of severity (WHO, undated). The viral outbreak in Wuhan inspired inevitable comparisons to the SARS pandemic that originated in southern China and swept through the country (and spread to other countries) in two waves in 2002-2003 and 2003-2004. It also follows on the heels of other recent infectious zoonotic disease incidents in China, such as a minor outbreak of pneumonic and bubonic plague in Inner Mongolia in November 2019 (AFP, November 28). The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak affords an opportunity to observe and compare the government’s handling of this latest public health crisis alongside those that have occurred in recent years. It also illustrates the continued contradictions faced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in attempting to improve its capacity for governance, while also maintaining a monopoly over the public dissemination of information.
Topic:: Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2025. New Wine Into New Wineskins: The Evolving Role of the PLA Navy Marine Corps in Amphibious Warfare and Other Mission Areas

Author:: Ying Yu Lin
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Historically, the Marine Corps was not a branch greatly valued by the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The explanation for this had much to do with the PLA’s mission priorities: the PLA has looked to the Taiwan Strait as its main focus area for amphibious warfare, and the PLA Army (PLAA) has traditionally held the primary role in this functional area, with the PLAN Marine Corps (PLANMC) operating in a secondary role. The former Nanjing Military Region—since reorganized as the Eastern Theater Command (China Brief, February 4, 2016)—has amphibious mechanized units that were subordinate to the PLAA 1st and 73rd Group Armies (now reorganized as the 72nd and 73rd Group Armies, respectively) (China Military, December 2, 2018). The amphibious mechanized units of the PLA Army feature heavier firepower and greater mobility than the PLAN Marine Corps (which originally consisted of only two brigades, the 1st and 164th, both subordinate to the South Sea Fleet). The PLAA amphibious forces focused on “big island” targets: these “big island” targets obviously included Taiwan, the PLA’s top priority scenario for resources and contingency planning. By contrast, the PLANMC was oriented largely towards the defense of islands or reefs in the South China and East China Seas. As the PLAN has become increasingly stronger in recent years, its efforts to field greater numbers of modern warships—and the deployments and training of these ships—have attracted ever-greater attention. In line with the expansion of its parent service, the PLAN Marine Corps has also grown, in terms of both numbers and missions, to align with China’s growing overseas interests. The two original brigades of the Marine Corps have been augmented in recent years by six more—four combined arms brigades, a special operations brigade, and elements of a shipborne helicopter aviation brigade—based in multiple locations along the length of China’s coastline (China Brief, February 1, 2019). Only in recent years has the PLA as a larger institution started to rethink the value and use of the Marine Corps—a change resulting from the PLAN’s improvements in capability, and China’s growing national power and increasing overseas interests. Recent training exercises provide some indication of likely future missions for the PLAN’s larger and more capable Marine Corps branch.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2026. The Vatican Stays Away from the Hong Kong Crisis Due to Fears of Beijing’s Retaliation

Author:: Emanuele Scimia
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On January 9, in his annual message to diplomatic envoys accredited to the Holy See, Pope Francis voiced concern for the conflicts ravaging parts of the Middle East, Africa, the Caucasus, and Ukraine, as well as for the increasing number of political crises gripping Latin America. However, not a single word was offered about the situation in Hong Kong (Vatican News, Vatican State Website, January 9). Serious socio-political unrest began in Hong Kong last June over a now-withdrawn extradition bill that, according to protesters, would allow the extradition of political dissidents to mainland China (China Brief, June 26, 2019). The pontiff has so far said nothing about the crisis in the city, much to the chagrin of many local Catholics. It seems that the Vatican has no intention of supporting the anti-government movement in Hong Kong, as such a move would hinder its attempts to improve relations with the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Religion, Leadership, Catholic Church, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Vatican city

2027. The Future of Chinese Foreign Economic Policy Will Challenge U.S. Interests, Part 1: The Belt-and-Road Initiative and the Middle Income Trap

Author:: Sagatom Saha
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping and other senior CCP leaders have prudently planned for the slowing economic growth that China now faces. CCP officials plan to transition China from its current export-led growth model to one driven by indigenous innovation, and one in which China’s rising global prominence confers to it many of the same advantages traditionally enjoyed by the United States (such as low borrowing costs and influence within international institutions). Although U.S.-China relations have become further fraught amid the trade war, many prominent China hands nevertheless assert that Beijing’s long-term economic plans do not run counter to U.S. strategic interests. [1] However, many of China’s planned foreign economic initiatives—to include the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), global value chain advancement, and renminbi (RMB) internationalization—will come at U.S. expense. Policymakers in both Washington and Beijing should accordingly expect U.S.-China tensions to persist beyond the Trump administration. China’s need for new growth vehicles is twofold: its economic size has not translated into global influence, and its current economic model is losing steam. First, China’s transformation into the world’s second-largest economy has yet to yield equivalent influence in the international system. Beijing’s sway in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for example, lag behind China’s status as the largest trade partner and foreign investor for much of the world. The United States, by contrast, has leveraged its economic status to maintain effective control of the Bretton-Woods institutions, to obtain low borrowing costs, and to exercise punishing sanctions programs against unfriendly governments. Second, Chinese growth has seen a secular decline over the last decade (see figure 1). The official projected GDP growth rate for 2020 is 6.1 percent (Xinhua, November 30, 2019), but some Chinese officials have hinted that they expect lower sub-6 percent growth in 2020 (South China Morning Post, November 14, 2019). This is a noteworthy signal, for CCP discourse has previously identified the benchmark of 6 percent GDP growth as necessary to avoid social unrest (China Brief, March 22, 2019).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2028. The CCP Response to the Wuhan Coronavirus: A Preliminary Assessment

Author:: Ryan Oliver
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (冠状病毒, guanzhuang bingdu) emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan. The precise origin of the coronavirus remains unclear, although experts agree that it is zoonotic and likely originated at a now-closed marketplace that sold seafood and other animal products for consumption. After initial submissions to the World Health Organization (WHO) on December 31 reported that an unknown pneumonia virus had infected 59 people in Wuhan, cases soon began to surface in other Chinese cities (WHO, December 31). The disease—now officially designated “2019-nCoV”—has spread beyond China’s borders and is now present in 16 other countries. As of January 28, the Wuhan coronavirus has resulted in 4,599 confirmed cases of infection and 106 fatalities (Phoenix News, January 28). Faced with another spreading epidemic, the central government has responded with more speed and transparency than during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2002-2004. Wuhan and several other cities in Hubei province have imposed quarantines that limit public transportation, and have initiated measures to isolate these cities’ populations. Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have also imposed restrictions to manage the flow of travelers. Officials also closed many tourist sites and postponed or canceled many Lunar New Year events nationwide, while extending the New Year holiday for three additional days in support of response efforts (Xinhua, January 26). Questions remain as to how effective these control measures can be in limiting the movement of people in and around China—particularly in light of the size of the cities in question, and the mass exodus of holiday travelers typical for this time of year. Besides these quarantine measures, efforts to isolate and slow the spread of 2019-nCoV have also included sending significant financial and medical resources to Wuhan and other affected areas. In addition to the deployment of medical teams from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), China’s National Health Commission has dispatched over 1,000 personnel in six medical teams from across the country to the Wuhan area (World Journal, January 26). The China Development Bank has issued a 2 billion yuan ($288.3 million) emergency loan, while the Ministry of Finance has allocated 1 billion yuan ($144.2 million) towards combating the 2019-nCoV virus (Sina, January 25). Alongside the official response from Beijing, China’s private sector—including companies such as Tencent, JD.com, Lenovo and Xiaomi—has also offered contributions of funds and medical supplies (SCMP, January 25).
Topic:: Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2029. The “Democratic Life Meetings” of the Chinese Communist Party Politburo

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On December 26 and 27, China’s central leadership held a “democratic life meeting” (民主生活会, minzhu shenghuo hui) for the full membership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo (Xinhua, December 27, 2019). This has become an annual end-of-year tradition for the Politburo, with similarly-designated meetings held in late December of each year from 2015 to the present (see accompanying chart). Official press treatment of the meetings since 2015 has consistently emphasized the authoritative position of CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, invariably stating that he “presided over the meeting and delivered an important speech” (主持会议并发表重要讲话, zhuchi huiyi bing fabiao zhongyao jianghua) to the other assembled members.
Topic:: Politics, Leadership, State Building, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2030. Sino-Indian Cooperation on Counter-Terrorism: Not Truly “Hand-in-Hand” At All

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On December 7, 2019, infantry units of the Indian Army and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) commenced the “Hand-in-Hand 2019” combined military exercise at Umroi in the northeastern Indian state of Meghalaya. The fortnight-long exercise ran through December 20, and focused on counter-terrorism operations in semi-urban terrain: to include training evolutions such as cross-training on small arms, hostage rescue, and recognizing improvised explosive device (IED) traps. Approximately 130 personnel from each country participated in the exercise, with the PLA contingent consisting of troops stationed in Tibet (Indian Ministry of Defense, December 2, 2019; Global Times, December 8, 2019; China Military Online, December 23, 2019). It was in January 2001 that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) first expressed interest in cooperating with India in combating terrorism (The Hindu, January 14, 2001). Since then Beijing and New Delhi have taken several steps to facilitate such cooperation: the two sides have set up a Counter-Terrorism Dialogue Mechanism, a Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism, and a High-Level Dialogue on Counter-Terrorism and Security to facilitate such engagement. In addition to leadership-level discussions, officials are engaging in talks on a range of terrorism-related issues. In October 2018, the two sides signed an Internal Security Cooperation Agreement, which aims at strengthening cooperation in areas such as counter-terrorism, intelligence sharing, and narcotics control (Business Standard, October 22, 2018). The “Hand-in-Hand” exercises were first set in motion in 2007, and the December 2019 training in Meghalaya represented the eighth round of these counter-terrorism exercises. Such events—as well as the joint agreements between the two governments—present a picture of India and China as closely engaged on counter-terrorism issues. The truth is quite different, however—and the two sides are far from “hand-in-hand” in their understanding of terrorism.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

2031. The Future of Chinese Foreign Economic Policy Will Challenge U.S. Interests, Part 2: Renminbi Internationalization and International Economic Institutions

Author:: Sagatom Saha
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Complications surrounding the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the dangers of the “middle-income trap,” are not the only factors impacting the international economic policies of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Furthermore, poor capital efficiency is not the only feature of the Chinese economy that frustrates the country’s policymakers. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) has roughly doubled in the last decade, but Beijing’s pull in the international monetary and financial system remains lackluster. This lack of progress stems in part from the dollar’s centrality around the world, as well as U.S. dominance in international economic institutions. Beijing’s economic planners have long advocated against the dollar while attempting to increase the global role of the PRC’s own renminbi (RMB) currency. While past efforts stumbled, RMB internationalization and increased Chinese influence will directly confront U.S. economic and geopolitical interests.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2032. How the Wuhan Epidemic Has Dented Xi Jinping’s Authority and Prestige

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In his telephone conversation with President Trump on February 6, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping expressed confidence that Beijing can beat the coronavirus outbreak, and asserted that “the fact that China’s economy will be better in the long run will not change.” But at a meeting of the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) a few days earlier, Xi expressed fears about the adverse impact that the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic could have on China’s reform and open door policy (RTHK.hk, February 7; HK01.com, February 6; Ming Pao, February 4). Of even greater concern to the CCP leadership, however, is the sustainability of state power and Beijing’s ability to “uphold stability” (维稳, weiwen) in Chinese society. Much of this hinges on the performance of Xi—who is also state president, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and the “life-long core” of the party leadership. That Beijing has failed to contain the alarming spread of the virus, however, demonstrates that Xi is facing the gravest crisis since he came to power in late 2012. It is clear that Xi is still in solid control of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the People’s Armed Police (PAP), the regular police, and the police state surveillance apparatus. Both central CCP officials and supportive foreign dignitaries are projecting confidence. While visiting Beijing in late January, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus praised China’s efforts against the coronavirus disaster, saying that Chinese authorities had displayed “Chinese speed and Chinese efficiency” (People’s Daily, January 29). After an unusual period of public absence in late January and early February, Xi has reappeared to assert his leadership and to declare a “people’s war” against the epidemic (Xinhua, February 11).
Topic:: Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2033. The CCP’s New Leading Small Group for Countering the Coronavirus Epidemic—and the Mysterious Absence of Xi Jinping

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The “2019-nCov” virus epidemic that first appeared in December in the central Chinese city of Wuhan continues to sweep throughout the country: as of February 11, there were over 43,000 official reported cases of persons who had fallen ill from the virus, and over 1,000 reported deaths (Johns-Hopkins CSSE, February 11). Aside from the human toll, the epidemic has resulted in large regions of Hebei Province being placed under quarantine, which is placing a severe strain on the Chinese economy. The crisis is also presenting a severe test of governance for the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP)—which, after being caught flat-footed in December and early January, is scrambling to stop the spread of the disease and to mount an effective medical response for those already affected. The second half of January saw a dramatic change in the posture of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) central government towards the epidemic. For the first three weeks of January, PRC state media organs downplayed the seriousness of the 2019-nCov outbreak, while emphasizing a steady stream of positive news stories: such as the successful achievement of government goals for poverty reduction, preparations for Lunar New Year celebrations, and the exalted status of CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping as “People’s Leader” (人民领袖, renmin lingxiu) (China Media Project, January 30). This changed around January 20-21, when Xinhua outlets shifted to coverage of the epidemic by reporting on Xi’s “important directions” (重要指示, zhongyao zhishi) for responding to the viral outbreak (Xinhua, January 20). This was followed in turn by the announcement of special meetings focused on the crisis: State Council meetings on January 20 chaired by PRC Premier Li Keqiang, and on January 23-24 by Vice-Premier Sun Chunlan (PRC Government, January 20; PRC Government, January 24); and a Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) meeting on January 25 chaired by Xi Jinping (PRC Government, January 25). Then, on January 26 state media unveiled a newly-formed policy-making and coordination body at the top echelon of the CCP: the “Central Leading Small Group for Work to Counter the New Coronavirus Infection Pneumonia Epidemic” (中央应对新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情工作领导小组, Zhongyang Yingdui Xin Guanzhuang Bingdu Ganran Feiyan Yiqing Gongzuo Lingdao Xiaozu) (hereafter, “Coronavirus Leading Small Group,” or CLSG). In an unusual move for such a high-profile policy issue, Xi Jinping did not take direct ex officio control of the CLSG—instead delegating the chairmanship to the nominal #2 figure in the party-state hierarchy, State Council Premier Li Keqiang (李克强). Per commentary in state media, the purpose of the new body is to operate “under the leadership of the Politburo Standing Committee, strengthening unified leadership and unified direction for prevention and control of the national epidemic” (Xinhua, January 26).
Topic:: Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2034. China’s Declining Birth Rate and Changes in CCP Population Policies

Author:: Linda Zhang
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Demography may not be destiny, but China has always been conscious of rearing the next generation. One of the three unfilial acts, according to the ancient Chinese philosopher Mencius, is the failure to bear a son. The Chinese have traditionally viewed offspring as a form of wealth, and have placed immense value on fecundity. [1] Despite such traditional beliefs, in the years after the Cultural Revolution senior officials of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) feared that overpopulation would exhaust the country’s scarce resources. In 1980, the CCP formally implemented the One Child Policy (独生子女政策, Dusheng Zi Nu Zhengce), or OCP, a national family planning policy that limited parents to only one child (Xinhua, November 16, 2015). However, after over three decades of efforts to reduce population growth, People’s Republic of China (PRC) officials are now concerned about a shrinking workforce and an aging population. The CCP leadership repealed OCP in 2015, but the fertility rate in China is nowhere near pre-OCP levels. Furthermore, the PRC has seen a significant decline in birth rate in recent years (see discussion below). The true extent of the decline is impossible to verify, but the downward trend in birth numbers is worrisome. This article examines both official PRC statistics on total birth numbers for recent years, as well as discussions among Chinese netizens using unconfirmed statistics, to analyze the deep uncertainties surrounding China’s demographic and political future.
Topic:: Population, Domestic Policy, Birthing, and Birth Rates
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2035. The PRC’s Cautious Stance on the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy

Author:: Yamazaki Amane
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In June 2019, the U.S. Department of Defense issued a major new policy document, the Indo-Pacific Strategy Report, which asserted that “Inter-state strategic competition, defined by geopolitical rivalry between free and repressive world order visions, is the primary concern for U.S. national security.” The document was clear as to which country it identified as the greatest source of strategic concern: “In particular, the People’s Republic of China, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, seeks to reorder the region to its advantage by leveraging military modernization, influence operations, and predatory economics to coerce other nations.” [1] This was followed by the U.S. State Department document A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision, issued in November 2019. This document stated that “Authoritarian revisionist powers seek to advance their parochial interests at others’ expense,” and that therefore “the United States is strengthening and deepening partnerships with countries that share our values.” [2] In using such language, the United States is not alone. Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Abe Shinzo has advocated Japan’s own “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy,” which he has discussed since 2016. This concept emphasizes economic development assistance and infrastructure construction, promotion of the rule of law, and freedom of trade. It particularly emphasizes maritime security and freedom of navigation—which connect directly to the territorial disputes that are a key point of ongoing contention between Japan and China. [3] The U.S. and its allies have advanced their cooperation on this new “Indo-Pacific Strategy” quietly but steadily: in one notable example, on February 4, the U.S. Department of the Treasury and its Japanese counterpart signed the “Memorandum of Cooperation [MOC] on Strengthening Energy and Infrastructure Finance and Market Building.” Brent McIntosh, Under Secretary for International Affairs in the U.S. Department of the Treasury, noted that the MOC is “a testament to our shared commitment to advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific” (U.S. Department of the Treasury, February 4, 2020). Given that several regional governments—including the United States, Japan, Australia, and India (the so-called “QUAD” group), as well as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—have incorporated the term “Indo-Pacific” as a part of their official strategy or policy, the significance of this broad concept will continue to increase in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, China’s reaction to the Indo-Pacific Strategy has been restrained so far, although it is certain that Beijing is closely monitoring it. This article considers the narrative on Indo-Pacific-related affairs in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), by focusing primarily on how officials of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) have dealt with the concept, as well as how cooperation among regional states has developed since the latter part of 2017.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

2036. Fair-Weather Friends: The Impact of the Coronavirus on the Strategic Partnership Between Russia and China

Author:: Johan Van de Ven
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In June 2019, during a visit to the Kremlin by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation announced that they had “agreed…to upgrade their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era” (Xinhua, June 6, 2019). This continued the warming of bilateral relations nurtured by Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who have met at least 30 times during their respective tenures. The strengthening of ties has seen unusually relaxed encounters between the pair, such as when they made blini (traditional Russian pancakes) together in Vladivostok in September 2018 (People’s Daily, September 12, 2018). In more substantive terms, support from Chinese state-linked financial institutions has played a critical role in the construction of a new wave of Russian energy infrastructure, ranging from the Yamal Liquified Natural Gas Project to the “Power of Siberia” gas pipeline. However, the ongoing COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak has opened a stress fracture in the bilateral Sino-Russian relationship. After weeks of gradually escalating restrictions, reports emerged in late February that Moscow public transit drivers had been instructed to call police if they witnessed Chinese passengers using the transit system (Wangyi Keji, February 25). The PRC Embassy in Russia warned that such actions “will harm the good atmosphere for developing Chinese-Russian relations” (Novaya Gazeta, February 25). While China was initially restrained it its public criticism of Russian measures taken in the course of the COVID-19 epidemic, the decision of the PRC Embassy in Moscow to highlight the discrimination being faced by Chinese citizens in Moscow is a reminder of just how quickly tensions can arise between the two countries, even in the age of “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era.”
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

2037. Beijing’s Appointment of Xia Baolong Signals a Harder Line on Hong Kong

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Beijing has signaled a much tougher policy toward the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) with the announcement on February 13 that Xia Baolong (夏宝龙), the Vice-Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), would take up a concurrent appointment as Director of the State Council’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office (HKMAO). In the official pecking order of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a CPPCC vice-chairman is reckoned as a “state leader”—and therefore, this move portends the raising of the status of the HKMAO and the overall importance of Hong Kong affairs in national policy. Also significant is the fact that from 2002 to 2007, when Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping was party secretary of the coastal Zhejiang Province, Xia was deputy party secretary. The fact that Xia, who began his career in the Tianjian municipality, is an important Xi protégé is well-known among China analysts (Ming Pao [Hong Kong], February 14; HK01.com, February 13). The HKMAO is usually headed by a ministerial-level official. Zhang Xiaoming (张晓明), a veteran of the HKMAO whom Xia replaced, is a ministerial-level cadre. After being demoted, Zhang remains the Executive Vice-Director of the HKMAO with the title of minister. However, it seems clear that his job will be to execute policies as directed by Xia—and above Xia, Xi Jinping. With the appointment of a key associate as head of the HKMAO, Xi also indirectly takes over the position of the highest arbiter of Hong Kong and Macau affairs. This is despite the fact that according to division of labor, the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) member in charge of Hong Kong—the Head of the Central Coordination Group on Hong Kong and Macau Affairs (CCGHKMA)—is PBSC member and Vice-Premier Han Zheng (韩正). In the past few years, Han has focused on infrastructure programs such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Greater Bay Area Project, leaving Hong Kong-related political issues to Xi as the “lifelong core” of the party (BBC Chinese Service, February 13; ITN.com [Taipei], December 3, 2019; PRC State Council, March 1, 2019).
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Governance, Leadership, Conflict, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Hong Kong

2038. Beijing Purges Wuhan: The CCP Central Authorities Tighten Political Control Over Hubei Province

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Following a slow reaction to the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 virus, since late January the zhongyang (中央), or central authorities, of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have conducted a concerted public relations effort to present themselves as actively engaged in directing efforts to combat the epidemic. This has included the creation of a new senior-level CCP “leading small group” focused on the epidemic (China Brief, February 5), and a messaging campaign to assert that CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping has been personally “commanding China’s fight” against the outbreak (Xinhua, February 2). Senior officials have also made a range of recent public appearances intended to demonstrate zhongyang concern for, and control over, the campaign against the epidemic. These actions have been accompanied by a host of positive news stories in state media about the response to the outbreak. The CCP Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) reportedly held a meeting on February 3 focused on this issue; directives emerging from the meeting stressed that party organs must “perform well in propaganda education and strengthen work to guide public opinion” (做好宣传教育和舆论引导工作, zuo hao xuanchuan jiaoyu he yilun yindao gongzuo) about the epidemic response. To this end, media should emphasize not only inspirational stories about the efforts of local workers, but also “deepen propaganda on the major decisions and deployments of the party center” (深入宣传党中央重大決策部署, shenru xuanchuan dang zhongyang zhongda juece bushu) (HK01, February 5).
Topic:: Governance, Local, Domestic Policy, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2039. China-Iran Relations: The Not-So-Special “Special Relationship”

Author:: John Calabrese
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Over the years, unremitting hostility between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran has created opportunities as well as dilemmas for the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, and the subsequent adoption of a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, presented mixed challenges and opportunities for the PRC. Beijing has sought to exploit the rift between Washington and Tehran without further fueling Sino-American tensions. For the past year, Washington and Tehran have been locked in an action-reaction cycle of escalation. This dangerous spiral reached new heights with the January 2 U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander General Qasem Soleimani, which was followed by retaliatory Iranian missile attacks on two coalition bases in Iraq that injured dozens of American troops. Although both sides managed to pull back from the brink of war in early January, underlying tensions remain—as does the possibility of a more direct military confrontation. In what manner and to what extent has the current unstable situation affected China’s interests in, and relationship with, Iran? What is the likelihood that, as this latest round of high-stakes poker between Washington and Tehran continues to unfold, Beijing will seize it as yet another opportunity to profit from America’s entanglements in the wider Middle East?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

2040. The Illicit Wildlife Trade in China and the State Response Following the Coronavirus Outbreak

Author:: Leo Lin
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus (新型冠状病毒, xinxing guanzhuang bingdu) in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), wildlife trade and consumption have become a top issue in the country. The disease, which has caused 3,215 deaths in China and over 6,500 total deaths worldwide (per official figures, as of March 15), has been identified as a zoonotic virus (i.e., one originating in an animal species) with a possible point of origin in the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, Hubei Province (China Brief, January 17; WHO, February 28; Johns-Hopkins University, ongoing). China, as well as many other countries, suffered from the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003. [1] SARS was also zoonotic in nature: its origin was traced to civet cats (CDC, January 13, 2004), which are considered a delicacy among some mainland Chinese citizens. Seventeen years have passed since the SARS epidemic, and it seems that history repeats itself. Experts in the field of infectious disease have warned that governments should take measures to regulate (or ban outright) the trade and consumption of many wildlife species. The Chinese government has taken several measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19, including a ban on the trade in wild animals—both those that are hunted or captured in wilderness areas, and those that are farmed by people. What lessons have the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and the Chinese public, learned about the potential consequences of the wildlife trade? This article examines the Chinese government’s policy response towards the wildlife trade in the wake of the COVID-19 epidemic, and what this might portend for the future.
Topic:: Trade, Illegal Trade, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Wildlife
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2041. Limited Payoffs: What Have BRI Investments Delivered for China Amid the Coronavirus Outbreak?

Author:: Johan Van de Ven
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The coronavirus outbreak, now declared to be a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO, March 11), offers a prism through which to assess how China interacts with the rest of the world in a time of crisis—one that was at first confined to China’s borders, but has since become a global emergency. Some commentaries on the connection between the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have portrayed Xi Jinping’s centerpiece foreign policy program as a dangerous vector enabling the pandemic—even though China was engaged in international trade and transportation prior to the commencement of the BRI in 2013 (Foreign Policy, January 24). For its part, state media in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has linked BRI relationships to support for China amid the initial stages of the crisis, citing positive examples of support from media outlets in South Africa, Russia, and Pakistan (People’s Daily, February 20). More recently, as the spread of the disease has abated in China and increased elsewhere, Chinese authorities have sought to illustrate their support, via the “warmth” of the Belt and Road, for current hotspots such as Italy and Iran—while also criticizing the U.S. response to the crisis (Zhejiang News, March 12). Such developments in China’s foreign relations amid the coronavirus outbreak offer a window to assess the effectiveness of the BRI in one of its central goals: namely, expanding the soft power available to the PRC. Applying an understanding of soft power as a state’s ability to induce other states to take actions favorable to its own interests, available evidence across domains related to the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic—such as the issuance of evacuation orders, and restrictions on public transportation—indicates that BRI investments have had only modest success in building China’s soft power. International support for China was piecemeal and rhetorical, leaving China economically and politically isolated. Demonstrating the lack of soft power available to Chinese authorities, the state tabloid Global Times demanded on February 12 that countries that “have completely cut off traffic communications with China” should “reconsider and revoke these practices” (Global Times, February 12).
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2042. Disposing of “Zombies”: Why the Reform of Non-Performing State-Owned Enterprises Has Gotten Even Harder

Author:: April A. Herlevi
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Normally at this time of year, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) government would be holding the large plenary meetings known as the “Two Sessions” (两会, lianghui). China watchers would be monitoring these meetings to assess whether and how the CCP is achieving its 2020 goal of achieving a “moderately prosperous society” (小康社会, xiaokang shehui). However, the COVID-19 outbreak (China Brief, multiple dates) has not only halted key meetings (National People’s Congress, February 27), but has also put into question many of China’s economic goals. This includes key goals discussed at the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held in December 2019, which focused on “three categories of risk: financial, environmental, and external” and “identified six areas of priority for China’s 2020 economic policy agenda” (China Brief, December 31, 2019). The 2019 CEWC meetings identified at least 10 distinct issues to be pursued in order to move China on the path towards a more balanced economy (Xinhua, December 12, 2019). This article will focus on one aspect of China’s efforts to achieve “high-quality development” (高质量发展, gao zhiliang fazhan): the dismantling of “zombie firms” (僵尸企业, jiangshi qiye). CCP efforts to deal with non-performing and debt-ridden “zombies” has been an ongoing effort since at least 2015. The inclusion of policies to reduce non-performing state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the economy follows official guidance set forth in 2016, and several policy actions taken since. First, this article will discuss what “zombie firms” are, and why they are a drag on the economy; second, it will summarize the key policies intended to dismantle zombie firms. It will then examine why zombie firms are so difficult to dismantle, and conclude by noting that the COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting economic losses due to quarantines are likely to further disrupt the ability of provincial governments to deal with non-performing firms and accumulating debt. As a result of these factors, zombie firms are likely to linger for some time to come.
Topic:: Reform, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2043. China’s Other Viral Crisis: African Swine Fever and the State Effort to Stabilize Pork Prices

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Since January, much of the international news coverage surrounding the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been dominated by the story of the COVID-19 outbreak—a previously unknown coronavirus that first manifested in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in early December, and which has since rapidly proliferated throughout China and many other countries throughout the world (China Brief, January 29; Johns-Hopkins University, ongoing). The COVID-19 pandemic has largely crowded out international attention to another viral outbreak that Chinese authorities and farmers have been battling for eighteen months: African Swine Fever (非洲猪瘟, Feizhou Zhuwen), which throughout 2018 and 2019 devastated pig populations in both the PRC and surrounding countries. The virus has caused major disruptions to both supplies and the cost of pork, the primary staple meat in Chinese society. As such, it has had a significant impact on the Chinese economy, and has also given senior officials of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) reason to fear the potential impacts on “social stability” (社会稳定, shehui wending)—the CCP’s perennial overriding domestic concern.
Topic:: Economics, Food Security, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Animals
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2044. China’s Deepening Diplomatic and Economic Engagement in Afghanistan

Author:: Syed Fazl-e Haider
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On February 29, U.S. and Taliban representatives signed the “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan” in Doha, Qatar, which laid out a framework for ending the 18-year old conflict in Afghanistan (U.S. State Department, February 29). Despite skepticism in many quarters regarding the viability of the deal, the negotiations leading to the agreement have been supported by many international actors, to include the government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). On February 18, PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang (耿爽) commented on the U.S.-Taliban negotiations by stating that “China firmly supports the broad and inclusive peace and reconciliation process [and] welcomes the news that the U.S. and the Taliban are expected to reach and sign a deal… China stands ready to step up cooperation with all parties to the Afghan issue and the international community for peace, stability and development in Afghanistan” (PRC Foreign Ministry Briefing, February 18). As the U.S plans to draw down its forces in Afghanistan—a key element of the February 29 deal—China is set to further deepen its involvement in Afghanistan (Nikkei Asian Review, January 14, 2019). Beijing wishes to achieve at least two key objectives. First, it wants once and for all to block any contact between the Taliban and ethnic Uighur Muslim militants seeking independence from China (China Brief, April 24, 2019). Second, the PRC wants long-term stability in Afghanistan in order to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—the flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—to the war-wracked country. Beijing sees Afghanistan as a primary link between the Central Asian republics and the CPEC (China Brief, December 10, 2019). To achieve its objectives, Beijing has pursued positive engagement with the Taliban movement that controls more than half of Afghanistan’s territory. These ties have increased over the past couple of years: for example, in 2019 Taliban representatives paid at least two visits to Beijing (in June and September) for talks with PRC officials (CGTN, June 20, 2019; Al-Jazeera, September 23, 2019).
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Middle East, and Asia

2045. Global Supply Chains, Economic Decoupling, and U.S.-China Relations, Part 1: The View from the United States

Author:: Sagatom Saha and Ashley Feng
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The trade war has defined the current adversarial relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). While President Donald J. Trump has at times openly expressed admiration for Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, his administration has pursued policies consistent with economic and technological decoupling. These policies include reforms that strengthen the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS); greater usage of the export control system, especially the Entity List; and threatening the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to force U.S. companies back to the United States. These policies, taken to their logical end, would see the secular decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies and the rerouting of the global supply chains that bind them. The interim trade deal has done seemingly little to change the structural economic conflict between Beijing and Washington. If economic decoupling came to pass, it would portend a sweeping reorientation of the global economy that many analysts regard as lying outside the bounds of conventional analysis. Yet some Trump administration officials, such as Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Peter Navarro, have promoted economic decoupling as their desired aim (SCMP, June 20, 2018; Forbes, December 3, 2019). President Trump himself has “ordered” American companies to look for alternative suppliers outside of China, or to return production to the United States (Twitter, August 23, 2019). The Trump Administration’s trade and investment restrictions have not been limited to U.S. companies—they also include pressuring third-party countries and foreign companies to abide by U.S. restrictions. Chinese companies are also relocating their manufacturing capabilities abroad—in part because of secular economic trends, but U.S. actions are accelerating the process. Simply put, sustained U.S. policies on China can encourage economic decoupling, but only if global economic trends continue to cooperate. Those policies are nascent, but could likely become a structural feature of the U.S.-China economic relationship—especially since a harder stance towards China has gained traction among both major parties. This has been demonstrated by widespread criticism of Chinese trade practices in both parties, and in bipartisan votes on legislation antagonistic to Beijing, such as the Hong Kong Democracy and Human Rights Act or the UIGHUR Act (see further below). The Trump Administration has pursued a three-pronged approach in breaking down economic supply-chain links: 1) escalating tariffs, which discourages bilateral trade; 2) imposing investment restrictions and export controls that punish tech transfers; and 3) issuing threats to U.S. firms that do business in China under the IEEPA. These current policies preview what could become a new orientation in U.S. policy towards China, regardless of who leads the United States at the beginning of next year.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Conflict, Trade Wars, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2046. The Chinese Charm Offensive Towards Italy as the Coronavirus Crisis Deepens

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: One year ago, Italy was hitting the headlines as Rome became the first G7 country to formally sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China to join the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI (China Brief, April 24, 2019). For Italy-China relations, 2020 would have been in any case a vital year: marking fifty years since the establishment of official diplomatic ties, the Italian President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella was due to visit China by the end of the year, after People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping came to Italy in March 2019 to sign the MoU (La Repubblica, January 17). However, twelve months later, Italy is finding itself facing the worst health and economic crisis it has experienced since World War II—a crisis in which the PRC is playing a number of prominent roles. This global pandemic has been caused by a new strain of coronavirus that emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan (Hubei Province) in late 2019. Officials of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at first tried to cover up the outbreak, before having to admit to its existence (China Brief, January 17; China Brief, January 29). It was just a matter of weeks before this disease started spreading worldwide. Beyond China itself, the country that has faced the most virulent outbreak is Italy: as of March 31, the COVID-19 virus had claimed the lives of 11,591 Italians, while 14,620 have recovered out of 101,739 people who tested positive (Corriere della Sera, March 31). Such a horrific outbreak has thrown Italy into the worst crisis of its republican history, and one of the worst in its unitary history. This crisis soon assumed a multifaceted dimension: it became not merely a public health emergency, but also developed into a political, institutional, economic, security, and even psychological emergency, with entire Italian communities under lockdown for weeks.
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

2047. The Coronavirus Pandemic and the Rise of Chinese Civil Society

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: According to figures provided by People’s Republic of China (PRC) authorities, the COVID-19 pandemic peaked in early March. One day after Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping made his only inspection tour of Wuhan on March 10, the epicenter of the outbreak, official statistics indicated that only eight new cases had appeared in the city—with only 15 new cases in China overall. Also per official figures, on February 25 more newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 originated from outside of China rather than inside the country (WHO, February 26). At least from one perspective, the authority and prestige of Xi seem to have been salvaged to some extent. However, public intellectuals, journalists, whistleblowers and other members of civil society have insisted that if Xi had been forthcoming about the outbreak from day one—and if adequate medical facilities and equipment had been transported to Hubei Province in good time—the number of cases in China would have been significantly lower than 80,000 and that almost certainly, the number of fatalities would have been much less than the official figure of 3,199 as recorded on March 15 (Economic Times, March 15; Straits Times, March 12). At a time when parts of China are under quasi-martial law, Xi has taken this opportunity to hit out at China’s nascent civil society. A large group of intellectuals risked their personal safety to eulogize the contribution of the late Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang (李文亮), who was one of the first whistle blowers to expose the severity of the coronavirus. On December 30, Li was among the first medical professionals to warn of a large virus outbreak; he subsequently fell victim to COVID-19 associated pneumonia and passed away on February 6 (Radio French International, February 20; BBC Chinese Service, February 7). Public intellectuals such as famed law professor Xu Zhangrun (许章润) of Tsinghua University and constitutional expert and activist human rights lawyer Xu Zhiyong (许志永) have disappeared (Chinese PEN, February 20; Radio Free Asia, February 19). Meetings of institutions of civil society, such as both the legally recognized and the underground churches, have also been suppressed in the name of curtailing public gatherings (Christian Times (HK), March 20). The police state apparatus also took advantage of the quasi-curfew atmosphere to mete out a ten-year jail term to Hong Kong’s Causeway Bay bookseller Gui Minhai (桂敏海), who was first detained in Thailand in 2015 for publishing a rash of books deemed embarrassing to the CCP’s red aristocracy. While Gui has nothing to do with the pandemic, his heavy sentence seemed a warning to intellectuals who dare expose the party’s treatment of advocates of freedom of expression (HKEJ.com, February 25; Apple Daily, February 25).
Topic:: Civil Society, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2048. Military Activity and Political Signaling in the Taiwan Strait in Early 2020

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On March 16, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force aircraft conducted a set of unusual nighttime sorties over the sea to the southwest of Taiwan. At least one KJ-500 airborne early warning and control (AEWC) aircraft and an undisclosed number of J-11 FLANKER-L jet fighters participated in the mission, and at one point crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which prompted a scramble by Republic of China Air Force (ROCAF) F-16 fighters in response (Focus Taiwan, March 17; Taipei Times, March 18). Although the nature of the mission was unusual—this marked the first time that PLA aircraft flew in the vicinity of Taiwan at night—the incident was otherwise consistent with a pattern of increasingly provocative naval and military aviation operations conducted in the vicinity of Taiwan by PLA units in the first quarter of 2020. This uptick in tactical military activity has been accompanied by more assertive rhetoric from People’s Republic of China (PRC) media outlets and spokespersons since the landslide reelection of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Wen (蔡英文) on January 11 (China Brief, January 17). These military operations (see further discussion below) have also taken place as PRC officials and citizens have scrambled to cope with the social, economic, and political impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic that first manifested in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in December (Jamestown, ongoing). This suggests that senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials wish to project the message that the crisis has not inhibited the PLA’s capabilities to defeat Taiwan “separatism”—and may further wish to use such operations to assert an image of strength in the face of the internal crisis produced by the pandemic.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

2049. The PLA Navy’s ZHANLAN Training Series: Supporting Offensive Strike on the High Seas

Author:: Roderick Lee
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In early 2020, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) conducted the fifth iteration of its “ZHANLAN” far seas training series (Ministry of National Defense, February 2, 2019). [1] The PLAN established ZHANLAN in 2016 as an annual far seas training event, with each iteration growing in complexity (Ministry of National Defense, May 27, 2016). Live fire and combat training often draws the most attention during such PLA training events, but the critical highlight of ZHANLAN-2020A was the training focus on combat support, rather than kinetic operations. The key takeaway from this training event is that the PLAN is developing the proficiencies to sustain limited offensive strikes against U.S. forces—perhaps as far out as Hawaii. This article argues that the PLAN is close to being able to execute offensive naval operations outside of the first island chain (and perhaps beyond the second island chain) in a wartime environment. The PLA has long discussed the concept of conducting offensive naval operations beyond the first island chain, and by comparing observables from the ZHANLAN-2020A training event with the list of proficiencies necessary to conduct deep strike, the PLAN is likely close to operationalizing this concept. The ZHANLAN-2020A training task force consisted of four vessels: DONGDIAO-class AGI (AGI-857); FUYU class (Type 901) support ship CHAGAN HU (查干湖) (AOR-967); LUYANG III class (Type 052D) guided missile destroyer HOHHOT (DDG-161); and JIANGKAI II guided missile frigate XIANNING (FFG-500). A fifth vessel, the ocean-going tug NANTUO-195 (南拖-195), took part in a limited role during the task force’s return journey.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2050. Mind the Trap: What Basing Rights in Djibouti and Sri Lanka Reveal About the Limitations of Debt as a Tool of Chinese Military Expansion

Author:: Scott Wingo
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On November 24, 2019, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa told reporters during his first interview as president that he hoped to renegotiate the terms of the deal that gave a Chinese firm a 99-year lease over the Hambantota Port (Strategic News International, November 24, 2019). The port had been handed over as Sri Lanka struggled to make loan payments on the loss-making Chinese-built facility—thereby leading to debates as to whether the People’s Republic of China (PRC) had set a “debt trap” by intentionally lending Sri Lanka more than it could afford to repay, in hopes of eventually foreclosing on the port (China Brief, January 5, 2019). The subtext was that with a leasehold in hand, the PRC could use the port as a naval installation geared toward patrolling Indian Ocean shipping lanes. As can be observed by the Sri Lankan government’s desire to renegotiate, this has not happened. To the contrary, Sri Lankan security policy has trended against China since the debt-equity swap occurred. A comparison with Djibouti, where the PRC has established its only overseas military base to date, illuminates how this came to pass. In both Djibouti and Sri Lanka, Beijing has used infrastructure loans as a means to entice political leaders to allow naval access. However, three factors led to very different outcomes: 1) the recipient countries’ inherent willingness to host a base; 2) the degree of political competition faced by recipient leaders; and 3) the degree to which recipient leaders can diversify toward different sources of funding to reduce overreliance on China.
Topic:: Debt, Imperialism, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2051. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor: Delays Ahead

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Although no new deals were struck during People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping’s trip to Myanmar on January 17 and 18, the visit was significant for several reasons. The visit was the first by a PRC president to Myanmar in 19 years, and the first by Xi to this country in his role as president. The visit was widely touted as marking the 70th anniversary of the establishment of relations between the PRC and Myanmar. However, Xi’s first trip abroad this year was aimed at expediting implementation of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a key component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (CGTN, January 17). During the visit, the two governments signed 33 agreements, memorandums of understanding, protocols and letters of exchange relating to railways, industrial and power projects, and trade. Several of these agreements firm up Myanmar’s commitment to the CMEC’s three central components: the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ), which includes a deep-sea port, an industrial park and other projects; the China-Myanmar Border Economic Cooperation Zone; and an urban development plan for Yangon (The Irrawaddy, January 18). However, just weeks after Xi’s visit saw the two sides take steps to expedite CMEC projects, Beijing’s plans have run into new problems. CMEC projects are running late, and in an op-ed piece published on the eve of his Myanmar visit, Xi stressed the need for CMEC projects to be moved from “the conceptual stage to concrete planning and implementation” (New Light of Myanmar, January 16). The coronavirus pandemic has emerged as the latest challenge in the long list of obstacles that have slowed CMEC projects over the years. According to Khriezo Yhome, a New Delhi-based analyst of developments in Myanmar, it “may be too early to assess the impact of the coronavirus crisis on CMEC projects,” given that the pandemic is still only at an “initial phase” in Myanmar; however, there is “no doubt” that it “will slow down the implementation of CMEC projects in the short-term.” [1]
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

2052. Responding to the Epidemic in Wuhan: Insights into Chinese Military Logistics

Author:: Joel Wuthnow
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has portrayed its response to the novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan in heroic terms: battling against an insidious enemy, PLA personnel courageously and tirelessly helped to mitigate the disaster in the epidemic-ravaged city. The PLA has even made the amazing (and highly improbable) claim that it accomplished this while suffering zero infections within its own ranks (China Military Online, March 3). Despite the hype, the crisis has provided an opportunity for the PLA’s newly reformed logistics system to test its ability to mobilize resources in exigent circumstances. The Joint Logistic Support Force (联勤保障部队, Lianqin Baozhang Budui) or JLSF, which was created in September 2016 as part of Xi Jinping’s larger overhaul of the military, has been at the forefront of the PLA’s response. [1] The JLSF’s role in Wuhan illuminated several key strengths of the PLA logistics system—including centralized control, effective use of information technology, and civil-military coordination—while also suggesting potential deficiencies. At a minimum, the crisis likely resulted in “lessons learned” that could improve the JLSF’s role in supporting commanders during wartime.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Leadership, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2053. Epidemic-Related Unrest and the CCP’s Reinforced Political Loyalty Indoctrination for China’s Police

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The central Chinese city of Wuhan, in Hubei Province, was the original epicenter from which the COVID-19 viral outbreak first emerged in November-December 2019. Hubei Province was placed under a strict lockdown in mid-January that lasted for over two months (China Brief, January 29). On March 25, authorities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced the lifting of most travel restrictions for residents of Hubei Province, with the exception of Wuhan City itself (Xinhua, March 25). (Restrictions for residents of Wuhan were later eased on April 8). However, the lifting of these restrictions has not proceeded entirely smoothly. On March 27, a major social disturbance occurred on the bridge over the Yangzi River that connects the town of Xiaochi in far eastern Hubei with the town of Jiujiang in northern Jiangxi Province. On that Friday, Hubei residents attempted to cross the bridge, but were blocked by police from the Jiangxi side. A tense stand-off escalated into a riot that reportedly involved not only citizens and police, but also clashes between police from the two bordering provinces (see accompanying images) (Radio Free Asia, March 27). Regional tensions were revealed in video of the incident, in which angry citizens could clearly be heard to chant “Let’s go, Hubei” (湖北加油, Hubei jiayou) when marching to confront barricades set up by Jiangxi police (HK Free Press, March 27). The police barricades were presumably ordered by Jiangxi officials—acting in apparent contravention of official national policy—who were fearful that an influx of people from Hubei could once more spread COVID-19 infections. This likely revealed skepticism on the part of regional officials towards the central government’s message that the epidemic has been contained in Hubei. It also revealed issues of fear and discrimination against Hubei persons on the part of Chinese from other provinces, a problem acknowledged in official PRC press outlets (China Daily, March 30). The March 27 incident provided a dramatic example of the sort of social unrest that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials have clearly feared could materialize in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths inside China and across the globe. [1] Hubei citizens have been subject to harsh conditions under government quarantines, resulting in a steady build-up of popular anger (China Brief, April 1). This incident may not be the last of its type to emerge as a result of the pandemic, and the CCP has taken active steps over the past two months to reinforce political indoctrination for local police agencies—thereby attempting to ensure that police officers will remain loyal to the ruling party in the event of any major incidents that might threaten “social order and stability” (社会治安稳定, shehui zhi’an wending) in the country.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Police, Police State, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2054. Changes in Consumer Behavior Of Gen Y’ers in Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:: Cemal Aksoy and Ahu Ergen
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: The economic challenges in different countries from past to present have global effects affecting the whole consumers. Today, especially young consumers are at the centre of the economy and understanding their consumer behaviour deeply in especially economically challenging days such as this pandemic of COVID-19 enables companies to make the right decisions. In this study, the effects of the economic challenges and the changes in the consumer behaviour of Generation Y’ers in the COVID-19 pandemic are examined both theoretically and practically. This study was conducted with 12 consumers from Generation Y living in Istanbul. The analysis shows that they prefer cheap and discounted products. They are more careful about spending money and they avoid extravagance. The results show that consumers are negatively affected by the economic consequences of COVID-19.
Topic:: Economics, Interview, COVID-19, Generation Y, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

2055. Turkey’s Membership Process In a Multi-Speed European Union

Author:: Ekrem Yaşar Akçay and İdris Turan
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: The European Union, established after World War II, has strengthened the revival of Europe, which has suffered greatly due to the war in many areas, including economic, political and socio-cultural. At the same time, the European Union overtook the conflicts between states. The European Union, which has occasionally passed through major breaks since its foundation, has recently begun to evolve into a new structure called multispeed Europe. On the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome, the member states, for the first time, have mentioned this new structure in an official publication. This structure has led to disagreements 13 among EU member states. On the other hand, it is also a matter of curiosity how the candidate countries will follow once this structure is created. This study assesses the potential effects of a a multi-speed European Union on Turkey-EU relations. In addition, it tries to evaluate whether the EU’s new structure will be an advantage for Turkey or not. In other words, this study aims to explore the possibility of Turkey’s EU full membership in the EU’s new model.
Topic:: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

2056. Foreign Market Entry Mode Choice In Service Firms: a Business Model Perspective

Author:: Alptegin Albayraktaroğlu
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: The topic of foreign market entry in service sector could benefit from a more granular approach, since the business model (BM) employed varies greatly across different types of services. It is argued that this in turn would affect the internationalization strategy to be employed in each service case. In this paper, services are classified along three dimensions (inseparability, capital intensity, degree of customization), and propositions are developed regarding the right foreign market entry mode for each of the eight service variations. The propositions are grounded in business model and general strategic management theories, since it is argued that service firms design their activity systems in host countries via tradeoffs between adjustment costs and transaction costs involved. As the service classification defines the nature of these costs for the focal firm, previous findings regarding the choice of foreign market entry mode reflects BM designs to optimize such costs. The scientific value of this paper is the introduction of the business model concept as a new perspective for research on decision making in service firm internationalization.
Topic:: Business, Internationalization, Foreign Market Entry, and Service Marketing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2057. The New Institutionalism: A tool for analysing defence and security institutions

Author:: Valerijs Bodnieks
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this paper is to investigate new institutionalism, its trends and their application in the analysis of security and defence institutions. The research is based on an analysis of theoretical literature to explore a system of assumptions about new institutionalism. Different approaches have been examined, including historical, rational choice, and sociological approaches. Historical institutionalism can be applied to identify the usefulness of past decisions, policy choices, appropriate strategy choices, and specific acquisitions for future policymakers, whereas rational choice institutionalism allows us to determine the influence of security and defence institutions on actors and their choices, how actors use the institutional framework for their own benefit, and how actors’ choices influence the state policy. Finally, sociological institutionalism focuses on recognising actors’ cognitive scripts and the changes they undergo, as well as causes that influence and determine cognitive scripts. Defence institutions are based on a precise regulative and normative framework and cognitive scripts of the highest authorities. Therefore, the external framework and the particular political impact on the supranational level can cause changes on the national level. New institutionalism provides an important perspective on the specifics of security and defence policy, actors’ individual and collective goals, their strategies and interests as well as cognitive scripts.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Institutions, and Rational Choice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2058. Assessment of the effectiveness of the security features of personal wireless networks

Author:: Janusz Gierszewski and Michał Matuśkiewicz
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Wireless network communication standards have become very common due to the huge benefits of their application. The use of radio waves to create networks has reduced infrastructure costs and increased the mobility of devices. The advantages of wireless communication (WLAN) also pose a challenge to the security of transmitted data. However, the use of a wireless signal poses certain threats to network security. The aim of the study was to analyse problems related to the security of WLAN 802.11. and assess its resistance to various attack strategies. It was assumed that wireless networks have an insufficient level of security. The assumed assumption is verifiable due to the ability to monitor events in networks. In order to verify the hypothesis, a number of experiments have been carried out in laboratory conditions, concerning the currently used WLAN protections from the IEEE 802.11 family of standards. The electromagnetic waves used for communication are available to the public at a distance of a few / several dozen metres from the communicating devices. It is easy to monitor air traffic using a network card that operates in monitor mode. The communication itself cannot be secured in any way, so data encryption is one way of secure transmission. During the research, the applied security features were successfully broken with the help of publicly available tools. The obtained results are distinguished by a high level of objectivity and reliability in the assessment of applied wireless network security. It was shown that there are still imperfections in the security and it is possible to break the security measures. The consequences of attacks are very serious and lead to a breach of each of the attributes of secure information. Practice has shown that it is impossible to create a wireless network that is fully secure. The findings of the study should be used to develop methods to improve information security, as well as to raise users’ awareness of existing threats. Not all users of wireless networks are aware of how easy some of the commonly used security features are to break.
Topic:: Security, Cybersecurity, and Networks
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2059. COVID-19 as a prestige-promoting mechanism: PESCO framework as an opportunity for EU member states

Author:: Valerijs Bodnieks and Sintija Broka
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The goal of this study is to identify whether PESCO can be one of the tools for future projects in medicine and whether it can be used to strengthen the military medicine of the EU and, simultaneously, be in synergy with the civilian sector by providing support to the civilian field, and, finally, can EU member states increase their prestige through PESCO. The study, which is based on qualitative research methods, shows that based on Latvia’s case, strengthening the medical field by participating in PESCO can lead to countries promoting their prestige on the international stage, as well as strengthening civil-military cooperation to build much stronger policies within the EU member states. Firstly, the findings showed that from all 47 PESCO projects, only two are related to the field of medicine. Secondly, with the whole world being affected by COVID-19, PESCO can be used for new projects related to the field of medicine. Thirdly, different types of projects can be initiated under PESCO, for example, a new kind of transport for evacuation, new types of medical devices, the creation of new regional laboratories and research centres, development of new analytical and biotechnological equipment, improvement of logistic chains, the establishment of unique and specific training institutions for civilian and military medics, and the development and use of robotic technologies or drones. Finally, countries that engage in epidemiological security measures during COVID 19 are clearly enhancing their prestige by not only demonstrating their readiness to react to the current situation, but also by taking practical action.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Realism, COVID-19, and PESCO
Political Geography:: Europe

2060. Fitness OSINT: Identifying and tracking military and security personnel with fitness applications for intelligence gathering purposes

Author:: Cyprian Aleksander Kozera
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the possibility of tracking and identifying military and other security personnel, operating in secretive or restricted areas. Such exposure might have dire consequences from the perspective of counterintelligence or physical security. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and Social Media Intelligence methods and techniques were employed to gather and analyse information on security and military personnel and expose their activities on-line. The case studies presented in the article exemplify utilisation of the new “Suunto” fitness application for open-source-based intelligence research. Despite general Operational Security rules that require all personal data such as names, pictures and habits to be kept discreet, open-source based research with one of the most popular fitness applications allowed the identification of military personnel and government agents operating in Afghanistan, Mali, Syria or working at national military facilities. In a single case, it took the author less than thirty minutes to identify personal details of a US Army soldier in Afghanistan and a Special Forces officer in one of the European countries and obtain their home addresses and pictures of them and their families. The results of the research show how OSINT techniques concerning fitness applications are useful both for intelligence and counterintelligence, specifically for malicious and terrorist purposes, and how necessary it is to make fitness and other, supposedly personal, activity private, especially for those who carry out sensitive missions and work in a restricted or secretive environment.
Topic:: Intelligence, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and OSINT
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Syria, Mali, and Global Focus

2061. Testing the efficiency of laser technology to destroy the rogue drones

Author:: Mohamed Zied Chaari and Somaya Al-Maadeed
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: A large body of research shows the increasing numbers of drones attacks despite RF jammer systems and other technologies. This incredible increase in drone attacks means that the existing solutions are not enough to stop it. The objective of the article is to present a study on the combination of a laser beam with an optical focusing system to create a new cannon to crush rogue drones. The experimental method relies on an innovative design incorporating a laser module and groups of optical lenses to focus the power in one point to carbonize any target. Specifically, it is the laser with an adjustable lens position from 477mm to 617mm to focus the laser beam on the desired distant object. We measured the necessary time to burnt acrylic plastic, wood, and hard carton from a distance of 55 metres. It was noticed that the laser efficiency is proportional to the laser power and time the cannon is turned on. Tests on the laser cannon revealed that laser burner technology can destroy illegal drones. However, it was found that the laser is affected by adverse weather conditions, such as fog, rain, and clouds. Apart from that, the frailty of this technique is connected with the stabilizing system requirements, energy, overheating, and the time needed to destroy an object. Regardless of the drawbacks of the technique, the laser is the only solution with high efficiency that can ruin or intercept autonomously programmed drones, as this cannot be achieved by the RF jammer or any other solutions. The procedure can be repeated with new changeables to achieve a postive result, specifically, the use CO2 laser tube with a high-efficiency chiller to increase the laser power.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Weapons, Drones, and Laser Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2062. The Hellenic air – space violations by Turkish aircraft: A statistical assessment and a forecast

Author:: Vasileios Symeonidis and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper aims to assess the extent to which repeated attacks against sovereign Hellenic air space by Turkey along with the inevitably ensuing engagements between aircraft of the two sides follow a certain predetermined pattern of behaviour that can be detected based on a given statistical model, and if so, to what extent this pattern is predictable in terms of its intensity and the frequency of incidents. To this end, we use the Weibull statistical distribution as an appropriate tool for interpreting and quantifying the pattern of aggressive Turkish behaviour and calculating probabilities of occurrences. Based on this choice, we then proceed with a forecast of this behaviour in the near future. We provide specific mathematical formulae that can be readily used to calculate probabilities and forecast air space violations and engagements. Our models, based on historical data, assume that both Hellenic air space violations and engagement incidents will keep increasing but will inevitably reach a monthly maximum, constrained by the availability of property and human resources on the Turkish side. The conclusions drawn point to the fact that Turkey will at some point in the near future reach its capacity limits in terms of property and human resources used in such offensive exercises, and that there is very little that can be done to enhance the margins of such activities given the room provided by the Turkish economy, which seem to be prohibitive
Topic:: Security, Military Affairs, Airspace, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:: Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

2063. Operational control over non-state proxies

Author:: Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The intention of this paper is to clarify how state patrons control non-state proxy forces fighting on their behalf. In order to address the subject matter thoroughly, specific attention was paid to a number of questions including a) the criteria determining patronproxy relations, b) factors influencing the selection process of proxy forces, and c) principles governing the maximisation of potential benefits of using proxies, whilst simultaneously reducing risks and associated costs. The author applied a neo-realistic research paradigm to his work. Patron-proxy relations were presented in the context of the principal-agent theory, as well as through detailed analysis of ongoing scenarios involving Iran and Hezbollah, Russia and the Donbass separatists, Pakistan and Kashmiri militias, the US and Syrian rebels. The essence of war by proxy is to influence the strategic result of an armed conflict without direct, full-scale, military intervention. The use of non-state proxy, external actors is aimed at maximising their political goals and strategic interests whilst maintaining “plausible deniability”. By supporting non-state proxies, indirectly or by providing limited direct assistance, sponsors operate below the threshold of war. Empirical analysis of proxy war cases proves that such models may both guarantee “strategic victory” or become a “double-edged sword”. One of the key challenges for external powers engaged in war by proxy is to avoid unintended consequences (blowback). The author argues that elements such as ideology, ethnicity or religion do not necessarily ensure control over proxies, whilst the range of common goals and interests, and the level of the proxy’s dependency, are crucial.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Special Operations, Proxy War, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2064. “Sweat is invisible in the rain”: Civilian Joint Task Force and counter-insurgency in Borno State, Nigeria

Author:: Seun Bamidele
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Political, ethnic and religious conflict has given rise to insurgency groups employing a variety of strategies worldwide. In Nigeria, civilians in strife-torn Borno State have formed a number of counter-insurgency (COIN) groups, among which the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) has emerged as a major player. The group began in 2009 as a simple call for volunteers, and now numbers over 26 000 men and women. While research has been conducted on other COIN groups, little is known of CJTF. Concerns have been raised about the CJTF metamorphosing into an ethnic militia, accused of human rights abuses, robbery, rape and hooliganism. Despite these reported atrocities, local people support them, regarding them as unsung heroes. The study investigates the group’s potential as a useful counter insurgency measure, using David Galula’s COIN theory to analyse the group’s actions and to contest the dualistic understanding of conventional vs unconventional, local peacebuilding approaches. The study adopts a qualitative, ethnographic methodology, locating the research in the context of global development and security discourse. The study aims to establish the value of the CJTF COIN group, to position unconventional local COIN as a viable complementary to conventional methods and to proffer clues as to how security initiatives may more successfully combat Islamic insurgency in Nigeria. The study employed both primary and secondary data. Field work for the study was carried out for six months between 2018 and 2019 in Maiduguri Metropolis and its environs in Borno State.
Topic:: Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

2065. Countering terrorism in the shadows: The role of private security and military companies

Author:: Iveta Hlouchova
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The article identifies the main features of the PSMCs’ involvement in counterterrorism operations and outlines what their future involvement might look like with its implications for international peace and security. The main methods used to gather data and to draw inferences are a content analysis of relevant primary and secondary sources, and a discourse analysis, used as a method of examining the prevailing discourse surrounding the activities of PSMCs, seeking to understand the level of transparency, accountability and attributability of these actors. So far, the PSMCs’ potential for counterterrorism has not been fully exploited. There are many challenges surrounding the existence and operations of PSMCs, mainly lack of transparency and accountability, the continuous significance of the plausible deniability and political expediency PSMCs provide to nation governments, and an insufficient and inadequate international regulatory and control framework with no sanction or enforcement mechanisms. Most recently, the tendency to re-legitimise PSMCs’ activities can be identified. There will most probably be an expansion of PSMCs’ activities in the near future, as climate change consolidates security as a commodity, not a right. Therefore, there is a renewed urgency for adequate and effective international regulatory and control mechanisms on their activities on the international level.
Topic:: Security, Privatization, Counter-terrorism, Regulation, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2066. Turkey’s approach to proxy war in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The last decade has seen a growing trend towards the use of proxies in the Middle East and North Africa following the outbreak of the Arab Spring. In this context, the issue of Turkey’s approach to proxy war in these regions has received considerable attention since 2016. Thereby, the purpose of this article is to investigate the essential characteristics of Turkish proxy war strategy in Syria and Libya. As such, this study intends to trace the development of Turkish proxy war strategy by making use of the conceptual frameworks proposed by Groh (2019), O’Brien (2012) and Art (1998). The most obvious finding to emerge from the analysis is that Turkey changed its indirect intervention strategy from donated assistance to proxy warfare in Syria and Libya when it saw a greater need to influence the result of the conflicts. In the case of Syria, this study has shown that the controlthrough-centralisation approach towards the Armed Syrian Opposition has enabled Turkey to carry out an effective proxy war strategy from 2016 onwards. In Libya, the results of this investigation have shown that theTurkish Army has pursued a proxy war strategy since Ankara and the Government of National Accord (GNA) signed an agreement on security and military cooperation in December 2019. The article concludes that Turkey has centralised many revolutionary groups under an Islamist-nationalistic vision and partnered them with its own military in order to expand its influence in the Middle East and North Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria

2067. FARC–Hezbollah: The success of Venezuela–Iran proxy groups and their convergence in the Americas

Author:: Jeferson Guarin P.
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Persistence and adaptation are the main characteristics that have allowed FARC and Hezbollah to become perhaps the most successful proxy groups in recent years. Both Iran and Venezuela have sponsored the military, political and criminal actions of these alleged insurgent organisations. The main objective of this research was to identify and conceptualise the mitotic evolution of FARC and Hezbollah from purely armed organisms into consolidated political organisations in Colombia and Lebanon, and how this evolution has presented a criminal convergence in Venezuela based on drug trafficking and money laundering. This article is based on a comparative case-study of published research papers, documents, and official statements of FARC and Hezbollah, by applying a rational perspective that allows their performance to be deduced. The research results showed a constant mutation of these hybrid threats. Thus, not only was the political and military success of these organisations established but also the strategic support of a criminal dimension which converged in Venezuela, where the FARC drug trafficking and Hezbollah money laundering were amalgamated. Consequently, the investigation exposes the possible consequences of the FARC-Hezbollah criminal convergence in the Americas and its destabilising effects in the next decade.
Topic:: Narcotics Trafficking, Hezbollah, Drugs, FARC, Destabilization, Money Laundering, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:: Iran, South America, and Venezuela

2068. The Securitisation of Hybrid Warfare through Practices within the Iran-Israel conflict – Israel’s practices for securitising Hezbollah’s Proxy War

Author:: Christian Kaunert and Ori Wertman
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Iran has been waging a hybrid war against Israel since the Islamic revolution of 1979. In an era when conventional wars have given way to a different method, hybrid warfare, the main challenge facing states is how to deal with this new type of security threat. Thus, while states have previously faced security threats from regular enemy states’ armies, nowadays hybrid warfare in which non-state actors play a key role has become a widespread security threat that requires democratic states to use very different strategies and tactics to overcome it. Using securitisation theory, which explores how normal issues transform into security threats, this article analyses how the State of Israel has securitised Iranian hybrid warfare which has been mainly executed through its proxy terror organisations of Hezbollah. It does so by applying a revised version of the Copenhagen School’s securitisation framework, which focuses on security practices and is underpinned by an understanding of security as belonging to a continuum. The proxy terror organisations have moved towards the end point of the continuum, which is characterised by survival, existential threats, and militarisation, albeit without completely reaching the end point.
Topic:: Hezbollah, Hybrid Warfare, Securitization, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

2069. Game of Proxies – Towards a new model of warfare: Experiences from the CAR, Libya, Mali, Syria, and Ukraine

Author:: Cyprian Aleksander Kozera, Paweł Bernat, Cüneyt Gürer, Błażej Popławski, and Mehmet Alper Sözer
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The objective of the study is to carry out a meaningful comparison that demonstrates the similarities and differences of various conflict theatres where proxy forces were employed. The analyses of the discussed cases focused on different aspects of the conflict and nature of the proxy use. The analyses presented on the following pages were conducted on the basis of the literature on the subject, governmental research and reports, and supporting sources reporting recent developments that complemented academic sources. Various non-state actors such as ethnic militias, paramilitary units, and private military companies have become more and more visible on contemporary battlegrounds. Modern states employ those actors to further their objectives, as this limits their own political and financial costs. This increasingly visible phenomenon points to an emerging new model of warfare where state actors are relying ever more on proxies of various character and nature. It is highly likely that any future conflict will be characterised by a proxy-based model of warfare, which will consist of a limited footprint made by regular forces (or none at all) and, consequently, the extended use of proxies supported by special forces. Because such an approach is less costly, proxies will be more often employed by low-budget states, previously reluctant to carry out such costly military endeavours. Denying the actions and affiliations of these proxies will inevitably follow and, in turn, a lack of political accountability and responsibility for the conflict’s outcome.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Conflict, Proxy War, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Libya, Syria, Mali, and Central African Republic

2070. Towards a structural understanding of powerbrokers in weak states: From militias to alliances

Author:: Sascha Bruchmann
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This article aims to contribute to a theoretical understanding and discussion of conflict in weak states. More granular than one at the level of systemic phenomena, this analysis is focused on the actors, and the political structure in weak states. The article aims to improve on efforts to accurately describe these conflicts. After a theoretical introduction, the theorem on powerbroker systems will be applied on the case studies of Afghanistan, Lebanon and Mali. Building on this, the contours of the political system in each case will be highlighted by looking at the very origins of socio-political life. The working hypothesis is that powerbrokers, built on self-governing communities, ally and bandwagon according to Balance of Threat (BoT). This working hypothesis will be tested by examining a derived hypotheses per case study and identifying a) self-rule communities, b) the political-military nexus of powerbrokers within each system, and c) the behaviour of the related BoT alliance. Afghan, Lebanese and Malian powerbrokers all confirm the hypotheses. The powerbrokers originate in a context of self-governing communities trying to maintain their internal autonomy vis-a-vis a more centralised state and world system. During conflict, the communities band together against a perceived external threat, building neo-feudal political-military bodies. Pooling military resources under skilled leadership and privileged access to outside sponsors sparks the birth of a post-conflict politicalmilitary elite. It is beneficial to maintain powerbrokers as they are better suited to distribute resources through patronage at scale. Powerbroker alliances in weak states can be well explained by a theoretical approach based on balance of threat and more research is needed
Topic:: Alliance, Conflict, Militias, Political System, and Powerbrokers
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Lebanon, Mali, and Global Focus

2071. Changing the character of proxy warfare and its consequences for geopolitical relationships

Author:: Zoran Ivanov
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The main purpose of the article is to examine the causal relationship between key elements of the geostrategic environment (i.e. political, military, and technological) and the changes in the characteristics of proxy force. Qualitative data analysis is used to identify the geopolitical environment conditions, actors, and their relationship. The causal analysis between key elements of the geopolitical environment, such as politics, military, and technological, therefore influences how proxy forces change character. The findings imply that the contemporary geopolitical environment is changing the character of the proxies. They can be used as multipurpose forces depending on the desired strategic outcome. The results advocate that proxies have a global reach beyond the traditional battlefield. These capabilities allow proxies to be used in a wide range of political, economic, and military activities, especially in peacetime, and, therefore, influencing, changing, and damaging the state’s mutual relationships. Despite differences between several theoretical perspectives of security theories, many concur on the low desirability of proxy force. The changing characteristics of proxy war allow state and non-state actors to wage war with a minimal use of force, or none at all, beyond the traditional battlefield. Political violence demonstrated through proxy force to fulfil foreign policy goals has become even more violent. In such action, disregarding the sustainable strategic goal can easily damage the state’s international relations and threaten international and regional stability. The overall findings show the urgency for a more holistic approach in the analysis of proxy warfare as part of security studies and military operations.
Topic:: Politics, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, State, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2072. Outsourcing warfare: Proxy forces in contemporary armed conflicts

Author:: James K. Wither
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive examination of the different types of armed non-state proxy groups. It discusses their characteristics and sponsorship and how they are employed by states in pursuit of their security and foreign policy objectives. The article also analyses the reasons for the recent increase in the use of proxy forces, including the benefits and risks for states that employ them, as well as the broader impact of proxy forces on the international security environment, including great power competition. Data was collected and analysed from a wide range of secondary source documents. A descriptive, qualitative research methodology was applied to print and on-line publications available from governmental, institutional and academic sources. This involved literature reviews and case studies to provide an in-depth understanding of current thinking on the topic, while also identifying potential areas for further research. The article provides a comprehensive, qualitative analysis of the existing literature and case studies on the topic of proxy forces, which due to the research methodology applied, also relies on the researcher’s judgement, choices and assumptions. Proxy wars will remain the norm for the foreseeable future. Two strategic developments drive this conclusion. Firstly, there is the renewal of great power competition for influence, resources and security, and secondly, the imperative for states to achieve these objectives without employing their military forces in a manner that could cause a major war.
Topic:: Power Politics, Conflict, Strategic Competition, Proxy War, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, and United States of America

2073. Family as a fundamental social unit shaping security culture: Polish realities

Author:: Agnieszka Wioletta Filipek
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The overall goal of the paper is to address the phenomenon of security culture. The conducted research was focused on analysing the possibilities of influencing the shaping of security culture by looking at the role of family. The study is based on a review of theories and published research about security culture and family. The aim of the paper is to answer the following research questions: What is security culture, what elements make up its structure and what role does family play in shaping it? The research methods were based on the classical theoretical methods used in security sciences and included an analysis of literature and scientific articles with the use of synthesis, abstraction and generalisation. Security culture is a category that characterises every security entity. Its structure consists of both basic and detailed elements such as: values, norms, attitudes, actions, cooperation and activity, reasonable openness, wise trust and risk. Based on the literature research, it can be stated that the basic outline of security culture is shaped during childhood and school years. It is shaped mainly in the family and in educational institutions. The research shows that the high level and appropriate nature of security culture can have a positive impact on the security of subjects and their environment, while the unfavourable form of security culture will have the opposite effect. The conducted research reveals that the role of the family in shaping security culture among children is indisputable and very significant and it should not be overestimated.
Topic:: Security, Values, Family, Norms, and Attitudes
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Poland

2074. The rules and organisation of air traffic at airstrips during military operations: Based on experience gained on missions in Chad and Afghanistan

Author:: Rafał Zajkowski
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of the article is to present the characteristics of airstrips used by Polish and allied aircraft during military operations in Chad and Afghanistan. The main goal is to examine their organisation and the management of air traffic by Polish ATC staff as well as to answer the question: How did Polish controllers plan the air operation? Answers to this question were sought through empirical and theoretical research. The theoretical methods were a study of literature (analysis, synthesis, abstraction, generalisation, interpretation, analogy and comparison). The empirical method – “opinion poll” took the leading role, which used different techniques conducted in a tested environment to gather the data (interviews with experts and an ex post facto experiment). Consequently, the article looks at the method of planning and preparing air operations and the rules of air traffic organisation in the area of responsibility of Polish controllers. The selected issues discussed herein include the rules of airspace segmentation, the adopted air traffic control solutions and the landing zone infrastructure used. All in all, the experience discussed herein constitutes valuable information regarding air traffic security and may prove helpful in organising landing zones and preparing air personnel for future operations conducted by Polish and allied Military Contingents at home and abroad.
Topic:: Security, Military Affairs, and Air Force
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, South Asia, and Chad

2075. Compulsory military service as a social integrator

Author:: Ronen Itsik
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Compulsory military service has become very rare over the last 30 years, in the western world. In the past, most countries considered military service as a socialisation platform, given the fact that most of the population was recruited and military units were a "meeting point" for different cultures – because of that the service then was functional as a social integrator. The current research studied changes in social attitude during compulsory military service in Israel, where the society is considered to be essentially divided around ethnical and national issues. This study is based on an analysis of the attitudes of 3200 internet questionnaire participants via social networks in Israel, followed by a U-test of the collected data. Half of the participants were high-school students (average age 17) and half of them discharged soldiers (average age 23). Analysis of the results reveals significant evidence: discharged soldiers tend to be more tolerant then high-school students with regard to other cultures and ethnic origins. A discharged IDF soldier is less afraid of security threats and considers budget prioritisation towards social welfare to be more important than security challenges. These findings show that compulsory military service can still be effective as a social integrator, even in the post-modern world where countries are dealing with migration issues and ethno-national tensions.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Army, Conscription, and Social Integration
Political Geography:: Israel and Global Focus

2076. The roots of armed conflicts: Multilevel security perspective

Author:: Marzena Zakowska
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this study is to indicate the roots of armed conflicts based on an analysis of a variety of theoretical approaches. The methodological framework for this research is Kenneth Waltz’s concept of analytical levels’ causes of armed conflicts: (1) the level of individual; (2) the level of the state; (3) the level of the international system. The armed conflicts are also generated by the nature of state regime and society, security dilemma mechanism, diversity between economic development, and rapidly growing population. The anarchy of the international system causes war, particularly due to the imbalance of power, power transition, challenging the hegemonic state by a rising power. The author presents a proposition of systematizing roots of armed conflicts and highlight the need for starting a discussion about developing approaches for the analysis of the roots of modern armed conflicts. The author highlights the need for starting a discussion about developing approaches for the analysis of the roots of modern armed conflicts. The starting point for discussion is introduced the concept of primary and supplementary approaches.
Topic:: State, Armed Conflict, International System, and Individual
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2077. Russian information offensive in the international relations

Author:: Ryszard Szpyra
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The information war is beginning to play a dominant role in international relations. It is important because it occurs intensively in peacetime and determines the results of international clashes. This article aims to identify offensive elements in Russian theoretical and doctrinal views on the role and content of the information offensive in international relations. To meet this aim, a comparative analysis of research studies, documents and official statements was carried out. The study sets out to investigate how Russia assesses the usefulness of the information offensive for conducting international policy. The study revealed that the information war and information warfare in modern conditions in the Russian scientific debate occupy a prominent place. Regardless of the declared defensive nature of the Russian information offensive, both the scientific and doctrinal views emphasise the value of the information offensive for conducting international policy. Russia takes the information offensive in international relations very seriously and treats it as one of the main forms of international confrontation. This has serious consequences for countries close to Russia as it creates a new threat to their national security in peacetime
Topic:: International Relations, National Security, Disinformation, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia

2078. Willingness to defend one’s country and to resist in the Baltic states

Author:: Māris Andžāns and Andris Spruds
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This article addresses the question of willingness to defend one’s own country and a similar notion of resistance, should Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia be attacked. The study principally relies on quantitative data from a dedicated nationally representative survey across all three countries. The data acquired thereof reaffirm findings from previous studies concluding that the highest level of willingness to defend one’s own country is in Estonia, while it is lower in Latvia and in Lithuania. Asked if and how respondents would resist in case of an attack, more willingness to resist either non-violently or violently was expressed by respondents in Lithuania, ahead of the number of willing to do so in Estonia and more so in Latvia. Demographic background of the respondents visualized and discussed in the article provides further nuances of both research questions. While situation with the willingness to defend Estonia is relatively comfortable, this should not be treated as a reason for complacency. There is still room for progress within some groups of the society. Meanwhile, valuable lessons could be drawn for policies of Latvia and more so of Lithuania to avert some of the less flattery trends identified in this study.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Resistance, and Collective Defense
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States

2079. Cloud system in digital human resources management in Turkey

Author:: Serap Ergen
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: With the changing technology, humanity has reached Industry 4.0 starting from the steam engine. With these developments, human resources in the organisations need to store and process data. A new application that enables digital human resources to easily access its data is cloud computing. The aim of this article is analyse how cloud technologies affect human resources management in Turkey. A descriptive method was used in this paper to explain the concept of digitalism in the discussed area and analyse the relationship between cloud system and digital human resources management. Data was drawn from the scientific and professional literature documents on this subject. Many organisations do not have enough knowledge about cloud computing in Turkey. There are also concerns about cloud systems security and economic equilibrium of companies. It is predicted that companies that adopt this technology will have a more efficient and comfortable human resources process and become more prosperous. Organisations should work for the development of human resources management system by digitising it. Organisations whose number of employees is increasing day by day, face problems, but they can handle this situation through the careful implementation of cloud computing. Cloud systems provide organisations with benefits such as storage capacity and easy access to data anytime and anywhere.
Topic:: Industry, Human Resources, Digital Policy, and Cloud Computing
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

2080. Values and norms of behaviour in the life of cadets

Author:: Kamil Dziwanowski
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this paper is to analyse the meaning, role and place of values in the life of a soldier. Furthermore, the article explores the issues of soldiers’ ethical standards and types of behaviour which can be found in the modern army. It outlines that they are strongly influenced by the local culture. As a result of everyday performance, every individual makes assessments, i.e. formulates different opinions according to a specific criterion and assigns them a significant place in the hierarchy of values. In the light of this theory, the article examines the hierarchy of values and the norms of behaviour that occur in the lives of cadets. The paper uses The Rokeach Value Survey as well as The Kruskal–Wallis test by ranks. Using these two methods, the author analyses his own questionnaires to compare the value system of Polish Air Force University students. The main findings state that cadets have a permanent system of values. Moreover, they share similar judgments concerning different behaviour. Regardless of the course year, goals and values related to their homeland and family seem to be of the greatest importance. The overall findings of the paper show a great number of similarities in the cadets’ value system. It is recommended that the future research should focus on examining students of other Polish military universities in order to check if they respond differently. The results obtained may be helpful in the process of young soldiers’ upbringings taking into consideration the moral figure among military school graduates.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Values, and Norms
Political Geography:: Poland

2081. Operation “Olympic Games.” Cyber-sabotage as a tool of American intelligence aimed at counteracting the development of Iran’s nuclear programme

Author:: Mariusz Antoni Kamiński
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The purpose of the article is to analyse Operation “Olympic Games” including, in particular, to indicate the political background to the activities aimed at preventing the development of Iran’s nuclear programme, and to examine the preparation and conduct of the operation, the involvement of the US and Israeli intelligence services, and the use of intelligence methods and sources. An equally important objective is to indicate the real consequences of the cyberattack with the Stuxnet virus. In the research process, a critical analysis of literature in the field of Intelligence Studies and source materials (including legal acts, strategies, reports, and other official studies of the entities forming the US Intelligence Community) was carried out. The example of Operation Olympics Games shows that complex cyber-sabotage operations resulting in the destruction of critical infrastructure on a large scale require the involvement of numerous state resources and advanced cyber activities, and the use of many different methods and intelligence sources. Thus, strong states with well-developed intelligence capabilities are much more capable of effectively using cyber-sabotage on a large scale.
Topic:: Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Cyberspace, and Sabotage
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

2082. Operations in subterranean systems: Terrain and weather variable

Author:: José Paulo Silva Bartolomeu
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The overall objective of the research is to summarize tactical considerations, resulting from terrain and weather analysis, to support the preparation, planning and execution of subterranean operations. The study used the Grounded Theory for collection, analysis, and systematic treatment of data. The main data sources for the study consisted of purposive sampling from operations in subterranean systems and lessons learned from them. Two new sub-variables are now proposed to be included in terrain and weather variable from mission analysis model for subterranean operations: Subterranean system’s location and accesses and subterranean system features. The key to finding subterranean systems is through terrain analysis, physical ground search, operational indicators, and intelligence products. The analysis of the features of the subterranean system and its mapping is critical for developing courses of action. Forces must be trained and equipped to manoeuvre and combat at short distances and poor visibility conditions. Surface access points and command and control bunkers usually are assessed as key terrain. Obstacles placed at intersections are excellent ambush sites. Accessing sophisticated structures requires specific techniques and equipment. Inside the subterranean systems, existing angles, barriers, walls, cavities, stairwells and other objects provide cover and concealment. Water can make it impossible to build subterranean systems, place obstacles, or even use them; droughts can “create” new avenues of approach. Clouds and fog difficult the detection of subterranean systems. The terrain and weather analysis model, the characteristics, and the tactical considerations presented, all combined, support the preparation, planning, and execution of operations in subterranean systems.
Topic:: Weather, Terrain, Subterranean, and Military Tactics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2083. The future of energy security of states

Author:: Jarosław Gryz
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The work focuses on the controversy about technological progress and unlimited access to all kinds of energy acquisition, storage and distribution. It suggests a formula for energy acquisition and usage which embraces issues of peace and war, social conflicts, and stability determined by access to energy conditioned by the state of the climate of our planet. The question is how will an interdisciplinary combination of progress and future implementation of technologies influence energy security of states and social entities, their natural environment, up to 2030 and beyond? The methods used in the work rely on a non – linear approach to disruptive technologies combined with empirical verifiability of scientific progress in the field of energy acquisition and use. They are reinforced with drivers taken from development scenarios gained through technological development in quantum mechanics, molecular biology, and computational techniques. The result is a conceptual approach to energy acquisition and distribution for states, their communities and individuals regardless of whether the technologies are “civil” or “military” in their essence. The recalled disruptive technologies shape factors of social development and create conditions for human existence and the natural environment that influence the security of states and social entities. The development of automation and robotics, digital transformation, bio-technologies and cognitive science creates new energy security for states, social entities and the natural environment. Technologies for the generation, processing and distribution of energy create an almost unlimited perspective of reconfiguration of existing forms of life and their safety.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and State
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2084. Participation of V4 countries in African peacekeeping missions

Author:: János Besenyő
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The article explores the peacekeeping activities of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia and the characteristics of their activities on the African continent. The paper examines the African peacekeeping missions carried out by Visegrád countries. The study uses comparative scientific literature and analysis of statements released by these governments and other papers and studies related to the African peacekeeping missions. In addition, I used my own experience from my previous African peacekeeping/peace support missions, and the lessons learned from other African operations published in my previous book about Hungarian peacekeeping missions. In summary, of the Visegrád states with differing levels of training and equipment, Poland was the most active in peace operations in Africa and in the lead, followed by the Czech Republic and Hungary, while Slovakia was the least involved in the African continent. This trend is, moreover, in line with the involvement of the above countries in Africa to date. Although these states cooperate in several areas, this is not the case for African peace operations, although cooperation in this area would be important. The research examines the background to the activities of the V4 countries in peace operations in Africa. The study is particularly important in view of the fact that, for a number of reasons (migration, terrorism), the V4 countries are preparing for greater engagement in Africa, one area of which is peace-support operations.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, and European Union
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

2085. Society 5.0 and the Future Economies

Author:: Hesham Dinana
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: We’re better-connected today than ever before—but has modern innovation created a new society altogether?
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2086. A Question of Delivery

Author:: Ahmed Taher
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The success of Egyptian higher education depends on far more than reforming content and curricula. Cherry-picking the best from the American model is one place to start.
Topic:: Education, Reform, Higher Education, and Models
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, Egypt, and United States of America

2087. Beginning to Resolve Displacement

Author:: David Arnold, Lorenza Rossi, Grace Benton, and Nina Stuurman
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Abstract:: Addressing the issues of displaced persons starts not by envisioning an ending point for those no longer living in their homes, but instead by understanding the mobile nature of displacement and empowering those affected.
Topic:: Refugees, Displacement, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2088. A Surplus of Deficits

Author:: Amr Adly
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: From a political economy perspective, there are four key forces working against the peace and prosperity of Middle Eastern and North African states. To defeat them robust institutions are essential.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Economic Growth, Peace, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

2089. It is Time to Establish a Middle East Regional Security System

Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Unlike every other region of the world, the Middle East does not have an inclusive regional security system. This article explores why that is, asks whether now is the time to begin, and suggests how such a process could be started
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Middle East

2090. Can Arab Cities Be Eco-Sustainable?

Author:: David Sims
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Separating fiction from reality, and corporate interests from true innovation in the new “eco-cities” of the Middle East.
Topic:: Environment, Urban, Innovation, Cities, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Middle East

2091. Annexation Makes No Policy Sense

Author:: Daniel C. Kurtzer
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The fors and againsts of the West Bank’s annexation.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Borders, Annexation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

2092. Enhancing Mediterranean Integration

Author:: Blanca Moreno-Dodson
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Trade liberalization, human capital development, and sectoral reforms can bring Mediterranean countries closer together.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Reform, Human Capital, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

2093. The Disrupting Stabilizer

Author:: Samuel Ramani
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: How Russia’s military, diplomatic, and economic roles in the Mediterranean have developed in recent years
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

2094. Strategizing Toward Irrelevance in Libya

Author:: Alessia Melcangi
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The Libyan conflict is marred by competing interests, and is where the Mediterranean’s major players all hope to come out on top.
Topic:: Conflict, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

2095. Greece’s Resource Blessing Comes with Hurdles

Author:: Antonia Dimou
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Can international arbitration and mediation with its neighbors help Greece turn its energy challenges into opportunities in the Eastern Mediterranean?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Mediation, and Arbitration
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, and Mediterranean

2096. The EU and the Med: Is Geography Still Destiny?

Author:: James Moran
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Europe needs to find ways of reinvigorating its relations with MENA countries to bring stability in its southern neighborhood and Mediterranean region.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Geography, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

2097. Gas Finds for the People?

Author:: Jason Beckett
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Public international law—tied as it is to existent western-centric neo-colonial structures—will likely block the natural gas finds in the Eastern Mediterranean from benefiting regional states.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Cooperation, International Law, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

2098. The Prospects for Conflict or Cooperation

Author:: Henri J. Barkey and Ellen Laipson
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Will the Eastern Mediterranean natural gas discoveries lead to regional transformation?
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

2099. Turkey’s Energy Geopolitics

Author:: Meliha Benli Altunisik
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Turkey is at one end of competing geostrategic visions in the Eastern Mediterranean, but are there avenues for reconciliation with countries at the opposite pole?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Reconciliation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

2100. Reluctant Power Europe

Author:: Kevin Koehler
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Will Europe’s approach of principled pragmatism toward the Mediterranean succeed in creating stability where previous approaches have failed?
Topic:: International Cooperation, European Union, Regionalism, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

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