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2021. Intrastate cultural and socio-political influences and the realisation of national security: A two-level correlational analysis

Author:
Dimitrios G. Pantazis
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper aims to examine how specific domestic social, political, and cultural motives affect the formation and implementation of national security agendas. The following assumptions drive the research rationale behind this essay: Security-making processes are considered non-similar among states due to different domestic political processes, cultural discourses, and socialisation patterns. Therefore, national security agents are constantly being guided by various intrastate settings, which construct attitudes that are ultimately reflected in policy formation and implementation through strategic behavioural manifestations. The realisation of national security is thus dependent on each state actor’s existent strategic culture, and given that, such choices cannot be contemplated in a strictly rational way. The methods of literature review and multi-layered analysis are applied throughout this study. In particular, this text’s reasoning is based on contextualisation, identification, categorisation of variables, and correlational implications. In relation to the findings, the theoretical examination of the objects assessed provides adequate clarification on the interaction between the domestic motives, decision-makers’ perspectives, and strategic cultural manifestations. Specifically, it was critically identified that the two last concepts can have a complementary function during security-making processes, hence producing unique outcomes for each state actor. Consequently, this paper wishes to contribute by giving direction for future research and broader methodological implications on the role of intrastate socio-political and cultural motives as sources of strategic culture and determinants of national security-making attitudes; without ignoring other factors that can respectively affect the aforementioned schemes.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Politics, Culture, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2022. Mediating effect of Indonesia’s public trust on national security from the sense of safety, knowledge, and willingness to participate in state defence efforts

Author:
Dadang Mas Bakar, Syamsunasir, and Agus Adriyanto
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Several studies that focus on the willingness to participate show that trust is a vital variable in mediating a person’s disposition to do so. This study examines the role of public trust in national security as a mediating variable of a sense of security and knowledge of the willingness to participate in state defence efforts. The data was collected via a questionnaire distributed to 435 respondents across Indonesia. We used a simple random sampling method; we then analysed using LISREL with Structural Equation Model (SEM). We found that trust cannot mediate a sense of safety and knowledge on the willingness to participate. An exciting finding was that knowledge affects trust, but sense of safety does not affect trust. This is interesting because it contradicts many studies related to political trust, when the willingness to participate is directly influenced by a sense of security and knowledge related to national security. Thus, to increase the willingness to participate in state defence efforts, it is necessary to increase the community’s sense of security and knowledge related to national security. In this case, we recommend providing education related to defence and security to the community and increasing the community’s sense of security.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Participation, and Trust
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

2023. Modelling computer networks for further security research

Author:
Zsolt Bederna and Tamás Szádeczky
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Computer networks are usually modelled from one aspect, e.g., the physical layer of the network, although this does not allow the researcher to understand all usage of that device. We aim to develop a model which leverages all aspects of a networked computer and, therefore, provides complete information to the scientist for all further security research, especially that related to the social sciences. Network science is about the analysis of any network, from social to protein. It is much easier to analyse computer networks with technical tools than protein networks. It is, therefore, a straightforward way to crawl the web as Albert-Laszlo Barabasi did to model its connections, nodes, and links in graph theory to analyse its internal connections. His analysis was based solely on the network layer. Our methodology uses graph theory and network science and integrates all ISO/OSI (computer networking) layers into the model. Each layer of the ISO/OSI model has its topology separately, but all of them also work as part of the complex system to operate the network. It therefore creates a multipartite graph of the network under analysis. Furthermore, the virtual private networks (VPNs) and application usage are also integrated as nodes and links. With this model, the computer network infrastructure and usage data can be used for further non-computing related research, e.g., social science research, as it includes the usage patterns of the network users.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Networks, and Computer Science
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2024. Assessing the cost of friction between NATO allies

Author:
Odysseus Katsaitis and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a method for assessing the cost of friction between North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies and highlights internal threats. This is applied to the Greek–Turkish conflict within the NATO context and concerns the functioning of defence expenditure in Greece, modified in such a way as to focus on the causes of friction between these allies. The analysis concentrates mainly on the issue of internal threats to the long-run equilibrium of NATO. The ARDL methodology used modifies the typical error correction model by introducing a mechanism that accelerates the process that leads back to the long-run equilibrium. Along with assessing the cost to an ally in relation to an internal threat, the method proposed allows the time required for the long-run equilibrium of NATO to be restored. The paper concludes that dynamic incidents of friction between allies expressed as an internal threat disturb NATO’s static equilibrium, destabilise an individual ally’s defence policy and contribute to cost being incurred.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

2025. Military-protester relations: Insights from nonviolence research

Author:
Brian Martin
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Military forces are sometimes called out to confront unarmed civilian protesters, a contingency for which they may or may not be prepared. Studies of civil-military relations have focused on relations between civilian and military elites, with interactions between armed forces and civilian protesters given little or no attention. The objective here is to improve understanding of militaryprotester dynamics. Key relevant features of nonviolent action are outlined, including methods, campaign stages and theoretical assumptions, with a particular focus on interactions with troops. The implications for military-protester dynamics are spelled out with illustrations from several protest campaigns. When troops use force against non-resistant protesters, this sometimes creates more support for the protest movement, a process called political jiu-jitsu. An important method used by some protesters is fraternisation, namely trying to win over troops to their side. Commanders and troops, through their actions, can encourage or discourage protesters’ use of nonviolent methods. Learning about military-protester dynamics is important for both strategists and practitioners.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Protests, Civil-Military Relations, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2026. Turkey and Russia in Syrian war: Hostile friendship

Author:
Cemil Doğaç İpek and Mehmet Çağatay Güler
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This study considers Russian-Turkish relations within the context of the Syrian war. We elaborate on both Russia’s and Turkey’s strategies and their understanding of the Syrian War, and consider how the two countries have managed to stay on the same page despite conflictual strategies and geopolitical interests in Syria. The current literature does not address this question and does not thoroughly compare their actions and engagements in the field. This article aims to clarify Turkey-Russia relations in the Syria and provides evidence of how they are in conflict and cooperate at the same time. In this regard, it is argued that the available evidence indicates that Turkey-Russia relations in Syria operate on the “compartmentalisation” strategy. In order to test this argument, the qualitative research method based on secondary resources is used while the theoretical framework previously formulated by Onis and Yilmaz (2015) is adopted. They conceptualise Turkey-Russia relations as if they do “compartmentalise economic issues and geopolitical rivalries in order to avoid the negative spillover of certain disagreements into areas of bilateral cooperation.” Furthermore, they claim that compartmentalisation can be hindered if there are deepening security concerns in an area like Syria. However, this article underscores that compartmentalisation does not only work by separating the economic issue from geopolitical rivalries; it also makes Turkey and Russia able to cooperate and conflict in a specific and fundamentally conflictual geopolitical issue such as Syria. The convergences and divergences that occurred in the Syrian field are conceptualised under the strategy of compartmentalisation. In this context, the cooperation – the signed agreements and established mechanisms, conflicts, and clashes in the field, are acknowledged as the consequences of the compartmentalisation strategy in Syria. The compartmentalisation strategy is specifically used in Syria in order to avoid the negative impacts of direct clashes in bilateral cooperation and agreements. It can therefore be concluded that the deepening divergence in security related issue does not necessarily prevent compartmentalisation; on the contrary, compartmentalisation paves the way for stabilisation of such deepening divergence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Syrian War, and Compartmentalization
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

2027. Disinformation as a threat to national security on the example of the COVID-19 pandemics

Author:
Wojciech Łukasz Sługocki and Bogdan Sowa
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Nowadays, the vast majority of the threats to our security is related to information security, resulting in a significant transformation of national security systems. One such threat is disinformation, which is increasingly being used intentionally. The study examines certain impacts of disinformation on national security as a system, on the example of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the study explores some processes visible at the international level and reviews some external problems in connection with national security. Research methods and techniques implemented in the research process itself are primarily based on a critical analysis of the literature and the analysis and synthesis of published research results. The main findings show that the phenomenon of disinformation, which intensifies in crisis situations (e.g. related to the outbreak of a pandemic) contributes to the destabilization of public mood, hinders the functioning of the basic organs of the state and, consequently, increases the negative effects of crisis events. Secondly, the disinformation used during the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated its effects, causing damage on an unprecedented scale. The analyses show that the fight against disinformation must be based on the assumption that the security of the state depends primarily on the information awareness of each citizen. Social awareness is built through effective education aimed at raising basic medical knowledge. Disinformation has serious consequences for modern countries as it creates a new threat to their national security in peacetime.
Topic:
National Security, COVID-19, Disinformation, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2028. The Balkan Kettle: Russia’s policy towards the Balkans

Author:
Bogusław Jagiełło
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The purpose of this article is to identify the policy orientations of Russia in the Balkans. The historical aspects of Russia’s political and cultural ties with the Balkan region and Russia’s policy towards the Balkans during the USSR period will feature. As the Balkans are an important factor in Russia’s geopolitical game to retain influence in Europe, the author analyses Russia’s contemporary policy in the Balkans, its interests and the measures taken to achieve its specific goals. It can be concluded that Russian involvement in some Balkan countries is exhausting the elements of a hybrid war. Two possible models of geopolitical behaviour in relation to Russia can be distinguished. The first is to continue trying to stay as far away from Russia, the second is to build effective mechanisms for socioeconomic cooperation. It can be implied that Russia will not hesitate to repeat the hybrid war scenario from Ukraine in order to maintain its political influence in the region. Only the EU returning to a consistent policy of enlargement involving the Balkan countries and the economic strengthening of the Member States from the Balkan region can weaken Russia’s political influence in the region.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Politics, Religion, History, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Balkans

2029. Effects of botnets – a human-organisational approach

Author:
Zsolt Bederna and Tamás Szádeczky
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Botnets, the remotely controlled networks of computers with malicious aims, have significantly affected the international order from Ukraine to the United States in recent years. Disruptive software, such as malware, ransomware, and disruptive services, provided by those botnets has many specific effects and properties. Therefore, it is paramount to improve the defences against them. To tackle botnets more or less successfully, one should analyse their code, communication, kill chain, and similar technical properties. However, according to the Business Model for Information Security, besides technological attributes, there is also a human and organisational aspect to their capabilities and behaviour. This paper aims to identify the aspects of different attacks and present an analysis framework to identify botnets’ technological and human attributes. After researching the literature and evaluating our previous findings in this research project, we formed a unified framework for the human-organisational classification of botnets. We tested the defined framework on five botnet attacks, presenting them as case studies. The chosen botnets were ElectrumDoSMiner, Emotet, Gamover Zeus, Mirai, and VPNFilter. The focus of the comparison was motivation, the applied business model, willingness to cooperate, capabilities, and the attack source. For defending entities, reaching the target state of defending capabilities is impossible with a one-time development due to cyberspace’s dynamic behaviour and botnets. Therefore, one has to develop cyberdefence and conduct threat intelligence on botnets using such methodology as that presented in this paper. This framework comprises people and technological attributes according to the BMIS model, providing the defender with a standard way of classification.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Botnets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2030. Bargaining power and U.S. military aid in the post-cold war era

Author:
Yu Wang
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This study examines the effect of bargaining power on the allocation of U.S. military assistance. Conceptualising U.S. military assistance as an aid-for-policy deal, it applies a two-tiered stochastic frontier model to a data sample of the post-Cold War era. It shows that the bargaining effect accounts for a huge variation in U.S. military aid distribution. The volume of U.S. military assistance in equilibrium is lower than the baseline volume by 4% at the mean and by 6% at the median. The donor U.S. extracts a slightly larger portion of the transaction surplus at these central points. However, the game of surplus division is not always about equally strong hagglers as it may first appear. In fact, the quartile values show substantial variance in bargaining performance and, hence, an outcome of surplus division across transactions. The bargaining effect is highly significant in the allocation of U.S. military assistance in the post-Cold War era. The donor U.S enjoys a bargaining advantage at the mean and median, but rich variations are noticeable.
Topic:
Military Aid, Bargaining, Post-Cold War, and Stochastic Frontier
Political Geography:
United States of America