Content Type: Journal Article / Publication Year: within 3 Years

101. The Neo-Global World: Past Baggage, Present Challenges, Future Prospects

Author:: Dmitry Yevstafyev
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: THIS paper continues a series of articles on the neo-global world written by the author in recent years.1 It also examines problems stemming from attempts to simultaneously construct a new architecture of international relations and overcome the destabilizing legacy of the largely US-centric system of late globalization. The emerging multilevel dialectic in a number of regions, not always the most promising in terms of access to resources, forms “funnels of conflict” that lead to the destruction of the economic and sociopolitical systems previously formed there. The earlier proposed hypothesis about a “blank slate” in the space of international political and economic relations being necessary for the development of basic institutions and elements of the economic architecture of the new world is, unfortunately, confirmed. We are currently witnessing the simultaneous emergence of several potential spatial “blank slates” where differences between the world’s key powers are being resolved by military force, which could result in chains of small regional conflicts turning into a systemic crisis of the global political and economic architecture. Power factors of varying degrees of intensity (from hybrid wars to direct military confrontation of the world’s largest states) will play a decisive role in the development and management of this crisis. The need to resolve the crucial accumulated points of contention of the late-global world will be of paramount importance in the ongoing processes of not just transformations but global spatial transformations, as demonstrated by the political and military-political processes of 2020- 2022, which, for various reasons, including situational ones, have acquired an antagonistic nature in a number of cases.
Topic:: Economy, Ideology, International Order, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

102. Illiberalism in International Relations

Author:: Alexander Dugin
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: There are two main schools in the theory of international relations --- realism and liberalism. Realists believe that human nature is inherently flawed (the legacy of Hobbes’s anthropological pessimism and, on an even deeper level, the legacy of the Christian idea of the Fall, or lapsus in Latin) and cannot be fundamentally corrected, which means that selfishness, predation, and violence are impossible to eradicate. This leads to the conclusion that man (who, according to Hobbes, is a wolf to another man) can only be restrained and regulated by means of a strong state. The state is inevitable and is the bearer of supreme sovereignty. At the same time, the predatory and egoistic nature of man is projected onto the state; therefore, the nationstate has its own interests. These interests take into account only their own state, while the will to violence and greed mean war is always a possibility. Realists believe that this has always been and always will be. International relations are therefore based only on a balance of power between wholly sovereign entities. No world order can exist in the long term; there is only chaos, which changes as some states weaken and others strengthen. At the same time, the term “chaos” in this theory is not bad in itself; it is merely a statement of the actual state of affairs, derived from taking the concept of sovereignty very seriously. If there are several truly sovereign powers, no supranational order can exist between them to which all would submit. Were such an order to exist, sovereignty would not be complete, in fact, it would not exist at all, and only this supranational authority itself would be sovereign. The school of realism has traditionally been very strong in the US, starting with its first founders: Hans Morgenthau and George Kennan in the US, and Edward Carr in the UK.
Topic:: International Relations, Realism, Multipolarity, Illiberalism, and Posthumanism
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

103. Hegel and the Theory of International Relations: General Paradigm of the Hegelian System

Author:: Alexander Dugin
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: LET us trace the influence of Hegel’s philosophy on the theory of international relations. It is most pronounced in Marxism and liberalism, while Hegel did not have much influence on realism. Let us examine this topic in more detail. Hegel articulated his views on politics most comprehensively in his Philosophy of Right.1 These views are based on his philosophy as a whole and represent an integral part of the entire system. Nevertheless, Hegel’s theory of the Political is presented in a rather original way and should be briefly described in order to identify his set of views on international politics. First of all, let us reiterate the general paradigm of Hegelian thought. It is based on the triadic principle “thesis – antithesis – synthesis” formulated by Johann Fichte.2 Fichte, for his part, derived it from the Neoplatonic tradition. Hegel did not, in fact, use the expression “thesis – antithesis – synthesis,” although the structure of his dialectics constantly revolves around a similar triadic scheme. According to Hegel, at the beginning of everything is the Idea-initself, or subjective Spirit. This is the main thesis. Next comes the moment of negation. Thus, the Spirit negates itself, alienates itself, and becomes Nature. In this moment of negation, the Spirit ceases to be in-itself and becomes for-the-Other. However, Nature and substance are not the first principle. It is just a moment of negation. Therefore, it is negative. Being negative, it indicates what it negates, being both its cancellation and, at the same time, its sublation or elevation (Aufhebung).3 This tension between two dialectical moments manifests as the Spirit that organizes and moves nature. A “potentiation” of layers of external existence takes place – from the physical and mechanical to the chemical and finally the organic. This process of unfolding of the spirit is the mind. In humans, the mind determines consciousness. Organic life in combination with human consciousness determines the third moment: the negation of the negation, or synthesis. In humans, the Spirit enters its final turn and moves toward the stage when the Idea can contemplate itself through humans, and the Spirit would become the Absolute Spirit – i.e., the Idea-for-itself.
Topic:: International Relations Theory, Philosophy, Empire, Multipolarity, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, Spirit, Idea, and Simulacra
Political Geography:: Global Focus

104. NATO: Waging High-Tech Warfare

Author:: Yury Belobrov
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: THE rapid technological progress observed in the last decade throughout the world, especially in China and Russia, threatens the established sources of military and industrial dominance of the collective West on the world stage. NATO views this as an alarming trend, and in an attempt to stop it, bloc members are making a determined effort to preserve their militarytechnological leadership and the international order structured around their policies. To this end, they are initiating a new arms race, partially through the active incorporation into the military sphere of the latest breakthrough technologies (Emerging and Disruptive Technologies – EDT), which, they believe, can reverse the emerging multipolarity of international relations and radically change the nature of future wars. Thus, the Allies are stepping up collective efforts to master innovative technologies and introduce them into the operational activities of NATO and all member nations to ensure their victory in future high-tech wars. They emphasize the urgency of adapting the armed forces of said countries to the realities of global technological advancement. As the communiqué adopted at the Alliance summit in Vilnius in 2023 directly stated: “We are accelerating our own efforts to ensure that the Alliance maintains its technological edge in emerging and disruptive technologies to retain our interoperability and military advantage including through dual-use solutions.”1 The US, as the main sponsor of NATO militarism, demands that its allies and partners closely and expeditiously collaborate on the creation of novel weaponry utilizing these emerging technologies and dramatically increase investment in various EDT projects and adapt their armed forces to them. Under the US’s diktat, Brussels and its American allies are creating new bureaucratic and financial entities. Private businesses and academic and research institutions are also being drawn into this sphere. To speed up this process, at the urging of Washington at the NATO summit in Brussels in 2021, a strategic initiative was launched to create the NATO Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA), which will manage and coordinate all this activity within NATO. The main task of this organization is to form an innovative technological network that unites R&D centers, innovative start-ups, defense enterprises, and military agencies in order to simultaneously and rapidly master all types of dual-use EDT technologies and implement them in the civilian and military fields. In addition to these efforts, a decision was also made to form a €1 billion NATO Innovation Fund to finance venture capital companies developing dual EDT in areas of strategic importance to NATO. Essentially, these decisions by the alliance are aimed at mobilizing European resources, primarily to strengthen American military power. Of course, the main efforts to field the latest technologies are being undertaken by the largest member nations.
Topic:: NATO, International Cooperation, Weapons, Innovation, Emerging Technology, High-Tech Wars, and Military and Industrial Advantage
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

105. The Global West and Global South: Development Paths

Author:: Maria Zakharova
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: I would like to highlight the fact that Russia is notably absent, it would seem, from the “South-West” paradigm. This is because our country cannot be fully categorized as either Western or Southern. We exist everywhere, and yet we do not fit neatly into these constructs. Some perspectives associate Russia with the Global North, while others link us to the Global East. However, [Russia’s] 2023 Foreign Policy Concept, which Alexander Vladimirovich Yakovenko referenced, defines the Russian Federation as a “unique state-civilization and a vast Eurasian and Euro-Pacific power” – a scope broader than these conventional classifications. And in the context of our discussion today, it is imperative to acknowledge Russia’s influence on global affairs. The concept of the Global West is relatively straightforward; it encompasses the US, the EU countries, and to some extent the Asia- Pacific region, knit together by American-centric military, political, and economic alliances – what they call Euro-Atlantic values. This is a product of the historical West, which has been extending its influence over the non-Western world for around five centuries, starting from the Age of Discovery, in an attempt to dominate it by all possible means. However, it is worth noting that calling the current era neocolonialism may be overly generous. I would refrain from such a characterization, as it gives too much credit. While there are undoubtedly flaws in these cultures, they also have rich cultural histories. In recent decades, individuals have risen to power in the US and Britain whose thinking is characterized more by piracy and banditry than by a philosophical understanding of colonialism, which is by no means good. But this is worse than neocolonialism – it is outright robbery. To illustrate, I once used the analogy of the US acting like a cowboy in the Louvre who simply shoots everything in sight, unaware that the objects before him are valuable works of art.
Topic:: Security, Treaties and Agreements, Developing World, State, BRICS, Civilization, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States of America, Global South, and Global West

106. Civilizational War: The Will to Win

Author:: Andrey Ilnitsky
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: The US National Security Strategy defines the US as a global hegemon that sees no dividing lines between domestic and foreign policies and treats the world as its sphere of interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Globalization, National Security, War, Hegemony, Ideology, Civilization, Deep State, and Generative Models
Political Geography:: Russia and United States of America

107. Nationality and the Right to Enter: Assessing the Impact of Refusal of Entry for the Purpose of Statelessness Determination

Author:: Cecilia Manzotti
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: This article considers the legal situation of migrants, including rejected asylum seekers, who are unable to enter what was, until then, regarded as their country of nationality. This is because that country, without explicitly disputing their nationality, either prohibits their entry or de facto prevents them from entering its territory by failing to issue travel documents or respond to requests for consular assistance for organising return. By examining the conceptualisation of nationality in international law on the one hand, and the international legal definition of a stateless person on the other hand, the article argues that the right to enter the territory of one’s state is so essential to the concept of nationality that refusal of entry and denial of consular assistance for arranging return should be regarded as evidence that the state does not consider a person as its national. Based on this argument, the article further assesses the suitability of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees’ guidance on statelessness determination in cases of direct or indirect denial of entry. Ultimately, this contribution aims to clarify the scope of the international legal definition of a stateless person by strongly grounding its interpretation in the conceptualisation of nationality in international law.
Topic:: Nationality, Migrants, Right of Entry, Refusal of Entry, Statelessness, and Asylum Seekers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

108. Reconfiguration of Citizenship Beyond State Boundaries in Rojava

Author:: Atefeh Ramsari
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: This paper seeks to investigate different modes of practicing citizenship in two political settings. One, in which an ethno-national state sets boundaries of membership and excludes some groups accordingly. The other, a democratic confederal system where neither state nor ethnic boundaries play a role in the configuration of citizenship. This empirical study looks at the individual perceptions and experiences of membership by stateless persons living in Rojava before and after the establishment of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. The stateless Kurds in the north of Syria, in the time of the Ba’ath government, had limited access to resources and their social life was restricted. When northern Syria (‘Rojava’) went through fundamental institution-building to implement democratic self-administration and confederalism, the conceptualisation of citizenship changed within the context of reclaiming power from the State. This is understood as a transformation from people as state objects into active actors. My discussion here focuses on how the stateless groups develop a sense of belonging, reposition the political demands and arrange social engagement horizontally. An important issue emerging from the findings is that daily membership experiences are remarkably associated with active voluntary participation in the organisation of the community. In the self-organising system, regardless of the precarious legal status the persons are holding, citizenship content and consequences in daily life are more inclusionary and egalitarian.
Topic:: Citizenship, Kurds, Belonging, Statelessness, Rojava, and Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

109. 'I Don't Know What Tomorrow will Bring': Understanding COVID-19’s Impact on the United States’ Stateless Population

Author:: Ashley Walters, Taryn Painter, and Heidi Meyers
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: In March 2020, COVID-19 was declared by the World Health Organisation (‘WHO’) as a global pandemic. Since the WHO’s declaration, it has become increasingly clear that the most vulnerable communities have experienced the brunt of the pandemic. Though race, ethnicity and economic status are considered in a majority of reports on the social, physical and financial impacts of COVID-19, there is little to no information on the impact of COVID-19 on stateless communities within the United States (‘US’). This research endeavours to add to the understanding of statelessness in the US by determining the impacts of COVID-19 on stateless people in the US through a survey scoping project. Through anonymous questionnaires completed by stateless individuals (n=19) in the United States, this study explores how stateless individuals have been impacted by the pandemic, including experiencing economic hardships, mental health challenges, physical health concerns and issues with documentation and legal status.
Topic:: Health, Economy, Mental Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Stateless Population, Vulnerability, Legal Status, and Documentation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

110. Getting Statelessness Published: Pathways to Publication for Early Career Researchers in the Field of Statelessness Studies

Author:: Barbara von Rütte
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: In Hungary, four legislations regulating citizenship-related issues in detail had been enacted starting from the second half of the 19th century. The Hungarian legislation recognises the legal status of statelessness and the concept of a stateless person. Hungary has ratified both the 1954 Convention relating to the Status of Stateless Persons(‘1954 Convention’)1 and the 1961 Conventionon the Reduction of Statelessness (‘1961 Convention’).2 Consequently, there was an intention to find a solution for persons who submit an application for stateless status in its territory. In this commentary, I introduce the Hungarian citizenship legislation in force, particularly focusing on the articles concerning the acquisition of Hungarian citizenship and how these relate to statelessness. I examine whether statelessness is adequately addressed in the legislation governing the acquisition of Hungarian citizenship and whether the legislation in force is able to provide appropriate safeguards in order to prevent statelessness, especially childhood statelessness. Comprehensive analysis regarding this matter is currently lacking. I argue that the situation in Hungary could be viewed as a ‘glass half empty’, as the citizenship legislation does provide some safeguards against statelessness, but significant flaws remain in the legislation regarding the prevention of statelessness, especially childhood statelessness. The National Assembly should address these gaps toenable Hungary to fulfil its international obligations under the 1961 Conventionto prevent and eradicate childhood statelessness. This commentary only focuses on the examination of the citizenship law and its safeguards against statelessness. I do not extend the analysis to the Hungarian statelessness determination procedure.
Topic:: Citizenship, Naturalization, Legislation, Statelessness, and Hungarian Citizenship Act
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

111. Habbal et al v Argentina: The Inter-American Court of Human Rights’ Test on Arbitrary Deprivation of Nationality

Author:: Maria Jose Recalde-Vela
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The right to a nationality is enshrined under art 20 of the American Convention on Human Rights (‘ACHR’),1 which states that: 1.Every person has the right to a nationality. 2.Every person has the right to the nationality of the state in whose territory he was born if he does not have the right to any other nationality. 3.No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of his nationality or of the right to change it. The two bodies that oversee the implementation of the ACHRare the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (‘IACommHR’) and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (‘IACtHR’).2Despite the fact that not many cases concerning violations of art 20 of theACHRhave been heard before the IACtHR, the Court’s decisions to date have ‘reinforced guarantees against statelessness which establish limits to State discretion in this regard’.3 This is also true in matters concerning the right to a nationality. This case note discusses the case of Habbal et al v Argentina(‘Habbalet al’),4 in which several important issues were raised regarding nationality matters and broader human rights questions in the context of human mobility. This note analyses the matter of arbitrary deprivation of nationality, as the case offers an important addition to the IACtHR’s jurisprudence on nationality. Even though the ruling was not in favour of the victims, this decision is nevertheless valuable for its discussion on the scope of the prohibition of the arbitrary deprivation of nationality; an issue of growing concern worldwide.
Topic:: Human Rights, Law, Nationality, Jurisprudence, Habbal et. al. v. Argentina, and Inter-American Court of Human Rights
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

112. Statelessness Before the ICJ: The Gambia v Myanmar

Author:: Jade Roberts
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The ongoing proceedings in Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (The Gambia v Myanmar)1have been recognised as significant for a number of reasons.2First, the proceedings concern genocide, which isregarded as the most heinous of crimes,3and due to issues of jurisdictional limitations in parallel proceedings in the International Criminal Court (‘ICC’),4theInternational Court of Justice (‘ICJ’ or ‘the Court’) may be the only international court capable of determining whether genocide has occurred.
Topic:: Genocide, International Court of Justice (ICJ), Rohingya, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and Gambia

113. The abuse of a motion of no confidence in Lesotho: Triggers and impact

Author:: Mokete Pherudi
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The article notes that the motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister (PM) in Lesotho is provided for in the Constitution, but different political leaders have abused it on several occasions for various party political and subjective reasons. This article, therefore, explores the abuse of this provision, its triggers, and how they have impacted the political stability and socioeconomic situation in the country. Lesotho is a constitutional democracy governed by a constitution adopted in 1993. One of the provisions of this Constitution is Section 87,1 which deals with a ‘motion of no confidence’. Constitutionally, the government must, at all times, enjoy the confidence of the National Assembly, and Section 87(2) of the Constitution embodies the principle that: The King shall appoint as Prime Minister the member of the National Assembly who appears to the Council of State to be the leader of the political party or coalition of political parties that will command the support of a majority of the members of the National Assembly.2 Similarly, the Constitution gives Parliament the power to withdraw confidence from the government of the day. The passing of the motion of no confidence requires a simple majority, and any member of Parliament can propose it.3 The only precondition for a motion of no confidence in government is the name of a member of the National Assembly for the King to appoint in place of the PM.4
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Constitution, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Lesotho

114. Enhancing synergies between peacebuilding and human rights interventions of the Africa Union (AU)

Author:: Ojot Miru Ojulu
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Maintaining international peace and promoting the development and protection of human rights are three pillars upon which the United Nations (UN) is founded. This innate relationship between peacebuilding and human rights has been underscored several times by the UN. For instance, addressing the UN Security Council on 18 April 2017, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, ‘upholding human rights is a crucial element of [conflict] prevention’ and ‘human rights are intrinsically linked to sustaining peace.’1 For the African Union (AU), the promotion of peace, security, and stability, on the one hand, and the promotion and protection of human and peoples’ rights, on the other hand, are among its key objectives.2 Despite this intrinsic relationship between peacebuilding and human rights, less attention has been given to mainstreaming this relationship into the decisions, interventions, and institutions of the AU. This article aims to shed light on the nexus between peace and human rights and why it is important for sustainable peace on the continent. In the first section, the article will analyse the peacebuilding and human rights nexus, and then the second section will zoom in on key peacebuilding and human rights frameworks under the AU. Finally, the article will highlight how peacebuilding and human rights could be better integrated under the AU frameworks and operations.
Topic:: Development, Human Rights, African Union, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa

115. SADC and election-related conflicts in Zimbabwe: An assessment and recommendations

Author:: Tinashe Sithole
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article evaluates the role of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) in resolving electoral conflicts in Zimbabwe, emphasising the organisation’s constrained enforcement capacity and reliance on diplomatic strategies. The discussion delves into the SADC and African Union (AU) institutional structures and preparedness to manage such conflicts, assessing their effectiveness in promoting democratic governance standards within the region. The author contends that, despite articulating governance norms, SADC’s intervention efforts are hindered by enforcement limitations and solidarity rooted in liberation movements, necessitating a reliance on moral persuasion and diplomatic tactics. The consequence is the violation of the SADC guidelines1 and principles governing democratic elections. Since 1985, Zimbabwe has faced election-related conflicts, with an escalating trend since the 2000s. The AU and SADC, as continental brokers, often intervene belatedly, lacking coercive authority. SADC’s coercive authority involves sanctions and military intervention, contingent on Member States’ consensus and collective commitment. Despite normative frameworks, there are allegations of rigging in Zimbabwe’s elections. The crucial question is whether SADC can effectively prevent civilian deaths in the electoral process, given that in the 2018 and 2023 disputes, the Responsibility to Protect was solely entrusted to the state. The article concludes by emphasising the significance of interpreting election-related conflict violations for adequate SADC attention and intervention. The historical lack of SADC intervention in violent election incidents across SADC countries has contributed to large-scale violence in subsequent instances, exemplified by Zimbabwe’s 2018 and 2023 elections.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Elections, Conflict, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

116. A security dilemma during Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration in the Lake Chad Basin

Author:: Mariana Llorens Zabala
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The security crisis in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) region has been of great concern since its turning point in 2009 due to the expansion of Boko Haram (BH) as one of the deadliest terrorist groups in the continent. This crisis is characterised by complex causes, including a development deficit, the lack of a social contract between the state and the population, weak governance structures, and a consequent violent extremist insurgency that has emerged and grown from and within the instability. While the efforts of those tasked to fight against the spread of these threats are numerous and commendable, much still needs to be done to ensure a safe and secure environment for all populations in the region. Through kinetic operations and non-kinetic interventions, the four governments of Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, with the support of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), the African Union (AU), United Nations (UN) agencies, and other critical partners have scaled up their interventions in the region. The scaled-up interventions include the Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) processes as part of the Regional Strategy for the Stabilisation, Recovery and Resilience (RS-SRR) of the Boko Haram-affected areas. However, it is common knowledge that these four countries are faced with challenges in the handling and treatment of individuals associated with BH – and other affiliated groups – when they surrender or exit these groups. First and foremost, these challenges include the lack of pre-conditions for traditional DDR to take place. A further challenge is the proliferation of arms and ammunition in the region among the civilian population due to a lack of security and safety provision.
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Disarmament, Boko Haram, African Union, Demobilization, and Reintegration
Political Geography:: Africa, Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Lake Chad Basin

117. Resource-based conflict early-warning system in the Hammer, Nyangatom, and Dassanech community of South Omo, Ethiopia

Author:: Asmare Shetahun Alemneh
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Conflict refers to actual or perceived incompatibility of interests, goals, and actions in relationships between individuals or groups. It is a dynamic process where attitudes, behaviours, contexts and structures are constantly changing and influencing one another.1 Conflict in pastoral areas has long been linked to the need to gain control of scarce and strategic resources, particularly water and pasture. However, the key issues here are not merely scarcity, which, as highlighted above, has always been a determining feature of life in the rangelands, but also the increased inability to manage scarcity.2 In the Horn of Africa, there are common factors contributing to conflict and violence within and between pastoralists, such as inappropriate government policies, socio-economic and political marginalisation, inadequate land tenure policies, insecurity, intensified cattle rustling, proliferation of small arms and light weapons, weakened traditional governance in pastoral areas, vulnerability to climatic variability, and competition with wildlife.3 In Ethiopia, the pattern and forms of the recent violent conflicts in pastoral areas indicate that they have been involved in resource control and utilisation competition.4 Conflicts are a common phenomenon in the South Omo Zone pastoralist and agro-pastoral communities due mainly to resource competition (pasture and water-points) and negative perceptions.5 However, conflict, by its nature, is dynamic; the drivers or causes and their nature are changeable through time due to many natural and human-made phenomena. Accordingly, an in-depth investigation of natural resource-based conflict and its dynamics in the South Omo Zone in Ethiopia is the focus of this article. This article is based on a study conducted in the Dassanech, Hammer and Nyangatom Woreda collective pastoralist community, and based on empirical primary and secondary data sources. Primary data were collected through semi-structured interviews, document analysis and focus group discussion (FGD).
Topic:: Security, Environment, Conflict, Pastoralism, Peace, Competition, Early Warning, and Resources
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

118. Empowering young voices: Using action research to combat xenophobia through children’s initiatives

Author:: Ruth Nyamadzawo
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Since 1994, South Africa has seen an influx of refugees, asylum seekers, skilled professionals, and socio-economic migrants seeking security and better opportunities. However, this has led to challenges, including xenophobic violence. Despite efforts by civic organisations and the government, the problem persists. Therefore, there is a need for a mindset of peace to address the recurring violence. This article is concerned with exploring the problem of recurring xenophobia in South Africa by reviewing the approaches that have been followed in response to this phenomenon and proposing an alternative response of involving children in peacebuilding measures. It highlights the importance of empowering children and helping them develop the capacity to become agents of change, and raising them as peacebuilders in the communities where they reside. Underlining the role of educating for peace in transforming human society, it is believed that peace workshops could contribute to preparing young generations for sustaining positive relationships with those considered the ‘other,’ and thus consolidating peace in South Africa.
Topic:: Children, Discrimination, Youth, Xenophobia, Empowerment, Stigmatization, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

119. Prevention of water conflicts in Central Africa and peacebuilding through transboundary waters

Author:: Michèle Désirée Nken née Okala Abega
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: In the heart of Central Africa, the management of transboundary water resources stands as a pivotal arena where the complexities of national interests converge with the imperative of conflict prevention and regional peacekeeping. The equitable distribution of shared rivers, lakes, and aquifers necessitates collaborative frameworks to navigate the intricacies of interdependence among riparian states. This article delves into the nuanced landscape of transboundary water governance, with a keen focus on the regulatory measures implemented in the Lake Chad and Congo Basins. Emphasising the integral role of community legal instruments in mitigating potential conflicts, the discussion extends to the challenges that hinder comprehensive adherence to international water conventions. Against this backdrop, the narrative unfolds to reveal the dynamic interplay between national interests and the overarching goal of regional harmony. As we traverse this exploration, the article not only sheds light on the emerging trends in Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in Central Africa but also proposes strategies for conflict prevention and the promotion of enduring peace within the region’s shared water ecosystems.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Natural Resources, Water, Governance, Regulation, Borders, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa, Central Africa, Lake Chad Basin, and Congo Basin

120. The ruralisation of violence and the criminalisation of conflict in Nigeria

Author:: Joseph Ochogwu
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article interrogates to what extent rural spaces are affected by criminal recruitment and the perpetuation of violent conflict and crime. It further examines the drivers of the ruralisation of violence and how it affects the nature of violent conflict in Nigeria. It identifies the impact of the ruralisation of violence and criminalisation on conflict resolution and peacebuilding efforts, as well as exploring existing security measures, law enforcement measures, and community engagement programmes to promote sustainable peace, especially in rural Nigeria. Adeleke et al.1 note that historically, rural areas, by their very nature, are known for social cohesion and rural dwellers are closely knitted such that there are shared emotions, strong family bonds, religious ties, and mutual trust, indirectly fostering effective crime control in rural areas. Ezejughu2 states that urban areas have been centres known for intense organised crime, with high levels of urban poverty, congestion, unemployment, and moral decadence contributing to violent crimes like murder, armed robbery, kidnapping, terrorism, and high rural-urban migration. This, in turn, has an impact on crime and conflict. Today, our understanding of rural communities has significantly evolved in Nigeria. They have become unsafe and contested spaces marked by limited State presence, inadequate infrastructure, and scarce resources. According to Ojo et al.,3 these conditions create fertile ground for violent conflicts and the recruitment of conflict participants. The absence of effective governance and security forces further exacerbates the situation, allowing extremist groups or criminal organisations to exploit the vacuum of state authority, thereby contributing to the cycle of instability in rural Nigeria. In 2020, Gustin and Slavic4 highlighted that rural regions, once primarily engaged in agriculture, have diversified their functions. Presently, rural areas are multifunctional and, unfortunately, have also become hotspots for criminal activities and violent conflicts in Nigeria. A typical example is the northern region of Nigeria, where there is an increased occurrence of terrorism, banditry, insurgency, and kidnapping.
Topic:: Conflict, Violence, Rural, Recruitment, and Criminalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

121. The nexus between horizontal inequalities and violent conflicts: A case study of Kenya

Author:: Sylvan Odidi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Horizontal inequalities are defined as inequalities in economic, social or political dimensions or cultural status between culturally defined groups. Relationships between horizontal inequalities and conflict were first discussed by Frances Stewart in the Framework of Collaborative Project Series on socio-economic causes and the impact of humanitarian emergencies and internal conflicts.1 It is instructive to note that if horizontal inequalities endure over generations, it is likely to generate resentment and, subsequently, conflicts. Therefore, the duration, nature, and potency of horizontal inequalities are vital in comprehending conflict dynamics manifesting in societies. Contemporary conflict studies posit that horizontal inequalities result in conflict situations where they intersect with significant group identities.2 In addition, in circumstances where inequalities between various groups are large, the likelihood of conflict is high.3 In this regard, Stewart observes that horizontal inequalities lie at the centre of most violent conflicts in developing nations.4 Arguably, Kenya falls under the category of countries ranked as unequal globally. The distinguishing characteristic of Kenyan society lies in its regional and ethnic disparity in wealth spread among citizens.5 The degree of horizontal inequalities in Kenya typifies the interplay of ethnicity and politics as well as polarised loyalties among key institutional players. 6Existing horizontal inequalities in Kenya have culminated in violent conflicts. These conflicts lower economic productivity, weaken the capacity of institutions to provide essential services, deplete existing resources, and lead to loss of food production as well as capital flight. Ending these conflicts remains a major challenge for relevant stakeholders. This is partly due to the failure of existing leadership structures and institutions to address development challenges, equitably share resources, and promote peaceful coexistence of all communities in Kenya. Most individuals elected and/or appointed to serve Kenyans in leadership positions have failed to entrench the principles of fairness and inclusiveness in the distribution of the country’s resources since independence. While various Kenyan administrative regimes have instituted measures to minimise conflicts, such as the establishment of peace-building and conflict management policies, conflicts of varied forms have persisted. It is against this backdrop that this study seeks to explore the nexus between horizontal inequalities and conflict in the context of Kenya.
Topic:: Governance, Inequality, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

122. The Western Sahara conflict on an evolving African security landscape

Author:: Vasileios Symeonidis
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The Western Sahara conflict has been described as a ‘frozen conflict’ and as ‘decolonisation’s last stand.’ Despite the multiple ceasefires throughout its history, the conflict has not been fully resolved. Since 1974, Western Sahara has been on the shortlist of non-self-governing territories. However, it is the only one on the list that has not condoned this status. The Polisario Front spent 50 years fighting for the independence of the Sahrawi Arab Republic from Morocco, mostly using arms and guerrilla warfare. This period of violence was followed by a ceasefire between the two stakeholders. Nonetheless, in 2020, Morocco’s response to the Sahrawi protests resulted in a resumption of fighting by the Polisario Front, essentially reopening ‘Pandora’s Box’ and showing that, despite the ceasefire, a permanent solution is urgently needed. This would need to happen within the broader African security landscape, which is currently experiencing a shift amidst the weakening of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, the growing presence of various private military companies (PMC), and the emerging role of countries such as Russia and Türkiye in African conflict situations. Considering the aforementioned changes, this article seeks to assess whether these shifts in the African security landscape will influence the situation in Western Sahara by maintaining the status quo or revitalising the efforts to resolve or exacerbate the existing tensions.
Topic:: Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and Western Sahara

123. The Western Sahara conflict has been described as a ‘frozen conflict’ and as ‘decolonisation’s last stand.’ Despite the multiple ceasefires throughout its history, the conflict has not been fully resolved. Since 1974, Western Sahara has been on the shortlist of non-self-governing territories. However, it is the only one on the list that has not condoned this status. The Polisario Front spent 50 years fighting for the independence of the Sahrawi Arab Republic from Morocco, mostly using arms and guerrilla warfare. This period of violence was followed by a ceasefire between the two stakeholders. Nonetheless, in 2020, Morocco’s response to the Sahrawi protests resulted in a resumption of fighting by the Polisario Front, essentially reopening ‘Pandora’s Box’ and showing that, despite the ceasefire, a permanent solution is urgently needed. This would need to happen within the broader African security landscape, which is currently experiencing a shift amidst the weakening of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, the growing presence of various private military companies (PMC), and the emerging role of countries such as Russia and Türkiye in African conflict situations. Considering the aforementioned changes, this article seeks to assess whether these shifts in the African security landscape will influence the situation in Western Sahara by maintaining the status quo or revitalising the efforts to resolve or exacerbate the existing tensions.

Author:: Ibrahim Sakawa Magara and Miranda Rivers
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article (re)appraises the role of civil society in South Sudan’s peace process. Situated at the confluence of civil society inclusion/exclusion, the significance of civil society participation and its contribution to peace processes, the article contributes to literature on inclusive and sustainable peace. The article employs a qualitative case analysis to illuminate the dynamics of civil society participation in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)-led peace process for South Sudan. The article engages with factors that compromise the efficacy of civic action in South Sudan and issues that are injurious to the sector’s legitimacy. The article neither downplays the complexity and precarity of the environment in which the South Sudanese civil society finds itself nor overplays the importance and contributions of civil society to the peace process. More importantly, it reveals that civil society in South Sudan is severely fragmentated and suggests that this fragmentation needs to be addressed as it simultaneously compromises civil society’s peacemaking efficacy and undermines the sector’s legitimacy. In the end, the article adds to the view that civil society is not always a force for peace and the sector’s inclusion; participation does not necessarily contribute to legitimising or sustaining peace processes and their outcomes.
Topic:: Civil Society, Peace, Sustainability, Inclusion, Fragmentation, Peace Process, Peacemaking, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

124. The interplay between traditional dispute resolution institutions and the formal justice system in Ethiopia: The case of the Jaarsa Biyyaa

Author:: Derara Ansha Roba
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Ethiopia has extensive experience with traditional dispute resolution practices that function parallel to the formal courts in various parts of the country. In pluralistic justice systems where state and non-state justice systems operate, how the state responds to the situation is significant. Through a study of cases prosecuted by the Jaarsa Biyyaa institution of the Arsi Oromo people, this article explores whether and how traditional dispute resolution institutions (TDRIs) interact with the formal courts and the impact of this interaction, if any, on the culture of the Arsi Oromo people. In line with that, the article analyses primary data gathered through two months of ethnographic fieldwork in Negele Arsi town in Ethiopia and from secondary sources of previous scholarly works. The findings show a shared interest in jurisdiction (predominantly over criminal matters) and competition between the Jaarsa Biyyaa and the formal courts. Moreover, there is also a practice of cooperation and complementarity between the Jaarsa Biyyaa and the formal justice system (FJS) where each recognises the other in practice. For the Arsi Oromo people, such mutual recognition is an opportunity to maintain the clanship organisation. More importantly, mutual recognition promotes conflict management in the community, which serves as a valuable lesson for the country. Other than the opportunities that arise, there are constraints such as the interruption of Jaarsummaa (elders reconciliation), broken social bonds and enmity.
Topic:: Pluralism, Tradition, Dispute Resolution, and Jaarsa Biyyaa
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

125. The role of traditional healers in conflict resolution in Zimbabwe, 1890‒1980

Author:: Takesure Taringana and Amos Zevure
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This paper analyses the historical role of traditional healers (n’anga/chiremba) in conflict resolution in Zimbabwe. Historically, traditional healers occupied a powerful position in Zimbabwean society. Not only were they healers but they also handled social problems and contributed to peace and reconciliation. However, colonial rule in Zimbabwe (1890‒1980) ushered in a spirited challenge to the authority of traditional healers. They were ridiculed as fraudsters who perpetuated unfounded superstitions. Colonial legal and justice systems replaced traditional conflict resolution institutions that had been manned by traditional healers. Nonetheless, traditional healers continued to exist underground. Notwithstanding that, their role and contribution to peacebuilding remains on the fringe of academic inquiry. The key question that this paper addresses is how and under what conditions traditional healers contributed to conflict resolution at the grassroots level. The paper focuses mostly on records of conflict and violence in court cases, underscoring how witnesses’ evidence brought attention to the role of traditional healers in reconciliation. It demonstrates the various contexts in which traditional healers’ interventions were alluded to but ignored in the state’s attempts to administer justice. By digging up obscured and misrepresented evidence of traditional healers’ practices in conflict resolution in the colonial archive and in-depth interviews, we unravel this understated but most crucial element in the process of conflict resolution in Zimbabwe since 1890.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Peace, Justice, Reconciliation, and Tradition
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

126. Consolidating peace? The inner struggles of Sudan’s transition agreement

Author:: Andrew E. Yaw Tchie and Mariana Llorens Zabala
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The use of transitional agreements to resolve differences between the state and non-state armed actors across the African continent appears to be on the rise. However, many of these transitional agreements tend to be stagnant and fail to deal with grievances, causes of political unrest and conflict or to provide sustainable paths to democracy. Drawing on the civilian-led Transitional Government of Sudan from 11 April 2019 to 25 October 2021 (the length of the transitional agreement), and an original dataset, this article argues that the policies of the transitional government of Sudan, political rhetoric and the challenges of implementing transitional agreement policies did not align with political realities. This was primarily due to the inability of the Transitional Government of Sudan to dismantle existing power structures under previous regimes. We find that the Transitional Government of Sudan neglected to consider path dependencies of the previous regimes, which led to its being unable to provide the people of Sudan with strategies that could help to circumvent existing structures set up by past regimes. As a result, the efforts of the Transitional Government of Sudan acted as exacerbators of existing inner struggles. The article argues for the need for better technical support and provisions to support incoming transitional governments trying to emerge from autocracy or dictatorship to democracy during transitional periods.
Topic:: Peace, Military, Transitional Government, and Regime Security
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

127. A Subdued Environment and Missed Opportunities

Author:: Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Chinese diplomacy toward the Korean Peninsula in late 2023 sputtered forward, driven more by a calendar of bilateral anniversaries with North Korea and multilateral gatherings involving South Korea than any sense of strategic purpose. Both relationships seemed preoccupied with off-stage developments such as the September summit between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin and the momentum of US-Japan-South Korea trilateral relations, rather than any inherent dynamism of their own. Still, regular Sino-North Korean bilateral exchanges ahead of the 75th anniversary of the bilateral relationship and Sino-South Korean bilateral economic dialogues provide opportunities to overcome resistance and sustain progress in the face of deepening major power rivalries. Senior-level dialogues between China and North Korea occurred on North Korea’s 75th founding anniversary in September, with the visit of Chinese Vice Premier Liu Guozhong to Pyongyang, a visit that occurred against the backdrop of the second US-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group meeting, North Korea’s first successful indigenous satellite launch, and North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Pak Myong Ho’s visit to Beijing. Meanwhile, ministerial and working-level economic dialogues on issues such as supply-chain stability, export controls, and trade facilitation continued between China and South Korea, punctuated by a notable bilateral exchange between Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo in late September on the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou. But these exchanges did not generate the traction necessary for South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to have substantive bilateral meetings with President Xi on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in San Francisco in November. Bilateral and trilateral foreign ministerial meetings in Busan between South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and counterparts Wang Yi and Kamikawa Yoko—the first in four years—failed to generate sufficient momentum to set a date for the resumption of China-Japan-South Korea summitry. Instead, the resumption of China-South Korea or China-Japan-South Korea summitry will depend on developments in 2024.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Dialogue, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, South Korea, and North Korea

128. Both Koreas Ditch Their Border Accord

Author:: Aidan Foster-Career
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The last third of 2023 was eventful in Korea, especially the two final months. Fall found South Koreans preoccupied with events elsewhere, and their implications for the peninsula. In September, Kim Jong Un’s Siberian summit with Vladimir Putin prompted worries as to how closer Pyongyang-Moscow military ties might affect the ROK. In October, Hamas’ shocking attack on Israel added a new layer of alarm, warranted or otherwise. President Yoon Suk Yeol was among those expressing fear that the DPRK might launch a similar surprise assault. He soon had less hypothetical concerns. In November, in response to Pyongyang’s successful launch (following two earlier failures) of a military reconnaissance satellite, Seoul partially suspended 2018’s inter-Korean military accord—whereupon the North predictably scrapped it entirely. Tensions grew as both sides rearmed at the ironically named Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), and talked tough — none tougher than Kim Jong Un, who spoke openly of occupying the South. As the year ended, Kim declared a major change in DPRK doctrine. Dropping its longstanding lip service to reunification, the North now regards the peninsular situation as “relations between two belligerent states.” The implications of this shift remain to be seen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Borders, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

129. Taiwan Voters Choose Independence

Author:: David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Taiwan’s election campaign has concluded. Voters went to the polls on Jan. 13. As has been the case in almost every election, cross-Strait relations with China were the central issue, a secondary issue being President Tsai Ing-wen’s management of the economy. The outcome of the election will largely dictate the course of Taiwan-China relations over at least the next four years. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate and President Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor, William Lai Ching-te, the eventual winner, proclaims that Taiwan is already independent as the Republic of China. It should continue to diversify economic linkages away from China, strengthen military deterrence, and hope that China will eventually offer talks without one-China preconditions. The opposition Kuomintang candidate, Hou Yu-ih, called for expanded cross-Strait economic ties and dialogue with China under the one-China banner to reduce tensions while Taiwan also builds its military deterrence. China has deployed economic sticks, gray-zone military intimidation, and fake news to influence the election. Washington has expanded its support for Taiwan’s self-defense, though less vigorously than Republican critics in Congress would like. Taiwan and the US have continued to expand trade ties in ways that will benefit Taiwan businesses though without tariff concessions that Taiwan eagerly wants. Now that Taiwan voters have elected William Lai, as the polls predicted, China will likely respond with increasing coercion. Had Hou Yu-ih been victorious, his challenge would have been to navigate between Beijing’s pressure for cross-Strait concessions and Washington’s suspicions of any such steps by Taiwan.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Voting, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

130. Biden-Xi Woodside Summit and the Slow Rehabilitation of US-PRC Ties

Author:: Sourabh Gupta
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The “guardrails” that President Biden and President Xi envisaged in Bali in November 2022 began to be emplaced at their November 2023 summit in Woodside, California. In-person, leader-led communication was deepened, reassurances exchanged, and practical—albeit modest—“deliverables” locked down on several fronts, including restarting mil-mil communications, cracking down on fentanyl precursors, addressing the national security harms of artificial intelligence (AI), and increased people-to-people exchanges. The establishment of numerous bilateral working groups will ensure an almost full plate of across-the-board consultations in 2024 as well as the means to troubleshoot irritants on short notice. As stabilizing as the Woodside summit was, it failed to deflect the US-PRC relationship from its larger overall trajectory of “selective decoupling” across a range of advanced technologies and frontier industries (microelectronics; quantum; AI; biomanufacturing; clean energy). Strategic trade controls and other competitive actions were doubled down upon. With a pivotal US presidential election looming in 2024, questions abound on the longer-term durability of a rehabilitating US-PRC relationship.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Trade, Xi Jinping, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

131. Beijing Moderates Criticisms Selectively

Author:: Robert G. Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Beijing in this reporting period moderated often shrill rhetoric of the past two years criticizing Joseph Biden administration advances and regional governments cooperating with the US. Emphasizing China’s positive contributions to regional economic growth, Beijing stressed its flexibility, said to be different from Washington in not pressing regional states to choose between the US and China, even as it demonstrated ambitions to develop a new regional and global order favorable to itself. Nevertheless, glaring exceptions included egregious pressures to compel deference to China’s claims in the South China Sea, harsh criticism of the Philippines and Japan cooperating closely with the United States, as well as authoritative foreign policy statements giving regional governments little choice between two paths forward: cooperation with an avowedly beneficial China or America’s purported exploitative, divisive and destructive initiatives. Regarding the Philippines, an unprecedented show of support by the US for the territorial claims of its treaty ally resulted in an equally unprecedented pushback from Beijing.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

132. Strategic Dynamism: 50th Anniversary of Relations and New Security Ties

Author:: Kei Koga
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Japan-Southeast Asia relations marked two milestones in 2023-24. The first was the 50th anniversary of Japan-ASEAN Relations, during which Japan and ASEAN emphasized an equal partnership by adopting the keyword “co-creation” to promote economic prosperity and security stability in Southeast Asia and beyond. The second is strengthening Japan-Philippines bilateral strategic ties, not only bilaterally, but also trilaterally with the United States and quadrilaterally with Australia. Japan continuously engages with other Southeast Asian states and strengthens ties with ASEAN to reinforce ASEAN Centrality and unity, yet a challenge remains: how Japan can design a regional architecture in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific by clarifying the roles and division of labor among those institutions.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, ASEAN, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Southeast Asia

133. Taiwan and China—Steady As She Goes

Author:: David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: As 2024 dawned, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated in his New Year Address that Taiwan must unify with China. In her New Year Address, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, with the election of her successor only 14 days away, repeated her offer to meet China on the basis of equality, mutual respect, and without preconditions, echoing themes dating back to her first inaugural address in 2016. On Jan. 14, Tsai’s chosen successor, Vice President Lai Ching-te, won an unprecedented third successive term for the Democratic Progressive Party, promising to uphold the independence of the Republic of China, but the party lost its majority in the legislature. A month later, two Chinese fishermen operating illegally near Kinmen Island died when their boat capsized as they were pursued by the Taiwan Coast Guard. Five days later, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel boarded and inspected a Taiwanese tour boat near Kinmen. Tensions grew but they did not boil over. On Jan. 30, China unilaterally moved its M503 civil aviation flight route closer to the median line of the Taiwan Strait. Premier Li Qiang included the obligatory call for Taiwan reunification in his Work Report to China’s National People’s Congress (NPC). Some analysts found that and other NPC references to Taiwan more strident than in recent years, but any change in tone was subtle. In apparent retaliation for Lai’s electoral victory, China persuaded Nauru to switch diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China even as Taiwan continued to strengthen unofficial relations with larger powers. These Taiwan efforts were supported by US President Biden, who used a trilateral meeting with Japan and the Philippines to call for cross-Strait stability. Taiwan’s continuing negotiation with the US of a 21st Century Trade Initiative and TSMC’s decision to expand new facilities under construction in Arizona exemplified Taiwan’s continuing diversification of economic linkages away from China. President-elect Lai will be inaugurated on May 20; his inaugural speech and China’s response could portend the future course of cross-Strait relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Regional Security, and Cross-Strait Relations
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

134. China’s New Foreign Policy Moderation—Mixed Regional Implications

Author:: Robert G. Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Incorporating major foreign policy initiatives of leader Xi Jinping, Beijing completed its effort from the past two years with instructions in January on China’s new approach to foreign affairs to Chinese foreign policy officials and others concerned. The new approach added authority and momentum to Beijing’s emphasis since Xi’s summit with US President Joe Biden last November on greater Chinese moderation and restraint as a “responsible” great power pursuing peace and development in dealing with Southeast Asian neighbors and elsewhere. Nevertheless, Beijing remains selective in how it applies moderation, and the record of the past two years shows great swings between moderation and truculence in its approach to foreign affairs, depending on circumstances which remain subject to change. The success of China’s regional importance showed in Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies annual survey of regional elites with China viewed as both the leading economic and political-security power, overshadowing the United States, and the judgment that if forced to choose between them, more respondents would select China than the United States. Caveats to these positives for China include continuing strong regional concerns over China’s ambitions in Southeast Asia and the fact that the survey came during the height of the war in Gaza by Israel, which is supported by the US and viewed very negatively in the region. Meanwhile, the defiance of the Philippines, with strong military and political support from the United States, Japan, Australia, India, and other allies and partners, against coercive measures in the disputed South China Sea represented a major test of China’s avowed “restraint” in dealing with foreign differences.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China and Southeast Asia

135. Weathering the Crisis

Author:: Akhil Ramesh and Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: For the US-India bilateral relationship, the first four months of 2024 was a repeat of the quarters of the last three years. Differences in attitudes toward Cold-War era partnerships surfaced and upset the calm in bilateral relations. Still, there were significant strides in the economic and trade front. The dispute over the killing in Canada of a Khalistan separatist designated a terrorist by India marred the security partnership. Still, Washington continued diplomatically to support India vis-à-vis China’s provocations such as bestowing Chinese names on Indian towns. Visits by top American military brass underscored the growing security cooperation between the two democracies. The nature of electoral democracy, though, created some diplomatic tension. While heated rhetoric and polemical campaign statements in India provided fodder for the Western press to question the supposed “values-based” partnership with India, President Joe Biden’s suggestion that Japan and India were as xenophobic and anti-immigrant as Russia and China angered many in India. These episodes were minor squalls compared to the hurricanes the bilateral relationship has endured over the last 50 or 60 years. While elections and security divergences made headlines, the relationship continued to build on pillars of trade and technology cooperation.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Trade
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

136. Ties Stabilize While Negative Undercurrents Deepen

Author:: Sourabh Gupta
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: US-China relations were marked by a paradox during the first trimester of 2024. On the one hand, a distinct stabilization was evident in ties. The two sides made concerted efforts to translate their leaders’ ‘San Francisco Vision’ into reality. Cabinet officials exchanged visits across the Pacific, working groups and dialogue mechanisms met in earnest and produced outcomes, functional cooperation was deepened, sensitive issues such as Taiwan were carefully managed, and effort was devoted to improving the relationship’s political optics. On the other hand, the negative tendencies in ties continued to deepen. Both sides introduced additional selective decoupling as well as cybersecurity measures in key information and communications technology and services sectors, with US actions bearing the signs of desinicization—rather than mere decoupling—of relevant supply chains. The chasm in strategic perception remained as wide as before. In sum, the “new normal” in US-China relations continued to take form, one piece at a time. What a difference a year makes. At this time in late-April last year, the US and China were barely communicating, still smarting from the balloon incident of February 2023. It was not until US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and CPC Central Foreign Affairs Commission Director Wang Yi met in Vienna in mid-May 2023 that a semblance of normality began to be restored to the relationship. Twelve months on, there has been an almost across-the-board restoration of communication channels, a deepening of functional cooperation across issues areas, and a concerted effort to manage the political optics of the relationship for the better – this, despite deep differences in strategic perception between the two sides.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

137. Credit Rating Agencies versus the ‘Pink Tide’: Lessons from the Experiences of Brazil and Argentina

Author:: Pedro Lange Machado
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This paper examines the behaviour of credit rating agencies (CRAs) during the ebbing ‘pink tide’. It claims that the actions of S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch contributed to dismantling left-wing regimes in Latin America, to the benefit of their right-wing competitors. The methodology draws on case studies of Brazil and Argentina, where the governments of Dilma Rousseff and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner were replaced by those of Michel Temer and Mauricio Macri, respectively. The research is based on sovereign ratings, reports and press releases the agencies issued during those transitions, which are analysed in the light of critical theories of their modus operandi and confronted with the political processes unfolding in both countries. This allows us to draw conclusions that are consistent with the presented argument, thereby contributing to advance the research agenda around the CRAs and to shed light on Brazil and Argentina’s recent critical presidential transitions.
Topic:: Democracy, Economy, Credit Rating Agencies, and Pink Tide
Political Geography:: Brazil, Argentina, and South America

138. Dynamics and Mechanisms of Reproduction of the Ideology of Consumerism by Transnational Data Firms

Author:: Stéfano Mariotto de Moura
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Through the literature review method, this research identifies a non-exhaustive series of dynamics and mechanisms used by data companies such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, and also by the group of companies known as ‘data brokers’, for the reproduction of the ideology of consumerism. A definition for such ideology is also presented. Five dynamics and 17 mechanisms are described within these two categories. The combination of subsets of elements in the second categorization gives rise to the first. The research question addressed here is: how do transnational data companies act in the international reproduction of the ideology of consumerism? It is argued that they take advantage of a deliberate lack of interest, mainly state interest, in regulating how they operate in the International Political Economy, to capture data through general dynamics that result from the articulation of specific data capture mechanisms. Thus, these companies manage to naturalise, ideologically, the act of consuming. The general dynamics identified by the paper were five: personalisation, web concentration, architecture of choice, infrastructural imperialism, and lock-in. The phenomenon is discussed in the light of the Critical Theory of International Relations
Topic:: International Political Economy, Ideology, Consumerism, Critical Theory, and Data Firms
Political Geography:: Global Focus

139. America First: Foreign Aid in the Trump Administration

Author:: Luiza Rodrigues Mateo
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The US has led the way building the international development cooperation system and been the largest single donor for the last seven decades. Foreign aid has gone through different phases during the post-World War II period and remains an important geopolitical and geo-economic tool for 21st century USA. The Bush and Obama administrations, despite different nuances in terms of discourse and aid practices, invested in reforms to modernise aid programmes, increased funding for USAID, and created new global health, food security, and climate change programmes. Contrary to the historical trend, the Trump administration submitted budget requisitions characterised by a 30% reduction for State Department and USAID allocations. It is noteworthy that the Trump administration questioned the costs of global leadership, criticised international organizations and the sectoral allocation of funds, and made threats of cuts in aid to countries that opposed Washington’s interests. The purpose of this article is to understand how the strategy of ‘America First’ changed the strategic tripod of defence, diplomacy, and development, by analysing changes in US foreign aid in terms of available resources, recipient countries, aid modalities, and multilateral engagement.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

140. The Politics of Inclusion in Peace Negotiations

Author:: Isa Mendes
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The article analyses the notion of societal inclusion in peace negotiations, a subject that has gained increasing importance in politics, policy, norm, and scholarship over the last few decades. It argues that inclusion has gone from being considered an unnecessary disturbance to a necessary one in peace processes, especially due to its growing association with the fostering of political legitimacy and peace sustainability. Reducing inclusion to its usefulness, however, obscures its fundamentally political nature and implications. The article thus tracks and unpacks the discussion on societal inclusion, drawing in particular from Chantal Mouffe’s reading of political agonism and the more recent literature about agonistic peace. Ultimately, it argues that instrumentalizing and depoliticizing political inclusion is hurtful for the democratic safeguarding of previously denied rights and counter-productive even for minimal legitimizing ends. Peacebuilding benefits from agonistic standpoints of analysis by introducing, from the negotiation stage, a political model of engagement that allows in conflict by peacefully tackling it instead of sweeping it under the rug.
Topic:: Conflict, Negotiation, Inclusion, Local Peace Committees, and Peace Process
Political Geography:: Global Focus

141. Understanding Muslim Countries’ Support for China’s Actions in Xinjiang: A Qualitative-Comparative Analysis

Author:: Bruno Hendler, Marcelo Corrêa, and William Wuttke Martins
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This study examines why 23 Muslim-majority countries supported China at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UN/HRC) in 2019, despite allegations of human rights abuses against the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Using a fuzzy-set qualitative-comparative analysis (fsQCA), we compared the factors that led Muslim-majority and non-Muslim countries to support China. Our analysis found that Political Regime Affinity (PRA) was a necessary but not a sufficient condition for Muslim-majority countries to support China, while China’s Foreign Aid (ODA) was a necessary but not sufficient condition for non-Muslim countries. These findings suggest that ideological factors, related to the autocratic political regime (PRA), played a significant role in Muslim-majority countries’ decision to support China in the UN/HRC in 2019. However, it is important to note that other factors may have also been involved. These findings have important implications for understanding the complexities of international relations and the factors that shape states behaviour.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, UN Human Rights Council (HRC), Uyghurs, and State Behavior
Political Geography:: China and Xinjiang

142. Metaphoricizing Modernity

Author:: Nicholas Onuf
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: We of the modern world tell stories about being modern, becoming modern. We ask where modernity is going. Two metaphorical complexes dominate these stories: We favour metaphors of life and growth; modernity has a life of its own. Or we prefer metaphors of motion and direction; modernity is a journey that takes many paths. The two complexes coexist uneasily even as they feed on each other; together they mark the modern conceit that modernity has left tradition behind. Those whom modern society has victimized, uprooted or abandoned may resist both complexes, often seeking to retrieve the metaphors of a lost, broken, misremembered or invented past. Most beneficiaries of modernity favour the metaphorical complex of life and growth—or merely take it for granted. Scholars with a critical attitude toward modernity often favour many paths and thus the metaphorical complex of motion and direction—without realizing it. Seven metaphors reveal these tendencies: boundary, break, juncture, limit, rupture, stage, transition. They also hint at a third, distinctively modern metaphorical complex. In our stories about modernity, we deploy plural versions of spatial metaphors sequenced in time: frames, boxes, compartments, or containers, and mark the sequence with metaphorical signposts: age, stage, wave, or period.
Topic:: Transition, Modernity, Metaphors, Boundary, Break, Juncture, Limit, Rupture, and Stage
Political Geography:: Global Focus

143. Exchange on Nick Onuf’s ‘Metaphoricizing Modernity,’ Part I—Dangerous Beginnings, Peripheral (Re)Beginnings: A Reconfiguration of Nick Onuf’s Constructivism

Author:: Victor Coutinho Lage
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Nick Onuf’s constructivism is one of the most important contributions to the field of international relations in what regards the interchange between social and political theories, and philosophy. In this text, I engage with Onuf’s body of work taken as a whole. The guiding thread of the problematization I propose is woven through the attention to how Onuf’s craft and creative undertaking sets certain beginnings in the construction of his framework, and how setting them has important implications for (the conception of) ‘politics’. I would argue that Onuf’s conception of politics is sustained on two central beginnings: the conception of humans as ‘rational agents’ and the framing of what has come to be called ‘modernity’. This way, I emphasize what seems to me the most enduring contribution his body of work can provide not only to the field of international relations, but also to contemporary social and political theories more generally. The first section outlines the relation Onuf establishes between rules and rule, while the following two sections deal, in turn, with his conceptions of ‘agency’ and the ‘modern world’. My goal in these first three sections is to reconfigure Onuf’s constructivism. The fourth and final section moves ahead, giving a step further – perhaps too far, perhaps too radical –, paving a critical engagement with his work through peripheral (re)begininngs.
Topic:: Politics, Constructivism, Rationality, Modernity, and Periphery
Political Geography:: Global Focus

144. Exchange on Nick Onuf’s ‘Metaphoricizing Modernity,’ Part II–Provincializing Metaphors, Reading (with) Onuf from Latin America

Author:: Manuela Trindade Viana and Roberto Vilchez Yamato
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: In this Dossier, four scholars reflect on Nicholas Onuf’s leading article, ‘Metaphoricizing modernity’, (re)engaging with – and celebrating – more broadly Onuf’s groundbreaking work from different places, perspectives, and angles. Part II rethinks (with) Onuf from Latin America, questioning and provincializing (certain) metaphors and metaphoricizing. Manuela Trindade Viana analyzes the conditions of possibility and the effects of ‘Colombianization’ as a powerful metaphor that came to circulate in Latin America since the late 2000s, in reference both to a specific diagnosis of a problem of violence and the solutions implemented to confront it. Challenging (certain) aspects of Onuf’s account about what metaphors do in our worlds, she argues that the security policy domain valorizes the universal push underlying the imperative to make models travel as a condition for the legitimation of their work in crafting solutions that fit to ‘similar problematically violent’ situations in Latin America. Roberto Vilchez Yamato offers an-other (re)reading of Onuf’s work. (Re)turning to Onuf’s World of Our Making, he (re)thinks the correlation(s) between metaphors, rules, and the conditions of rule, drawing attention to the crucial place of language within Onuf’s work. Supplementarily, Yamato engages with Onuf’s more recent The Mightie Frame, ‘the second half’ of his ‘decades-long project’, suggesting a certain rethinking of the ‘microphysics’ of language, the conditions of thought, and the conditions of rule, within which metaphors and metaphorical complexes are given center stage. (Re)reading (some of) Onuf’s work, he concludes his article wondering about how Onuf would respond to the question of provincializing metaphors.
Topic:: Violence, Language, Metaphors, Provincializing, and Colombianization
Political Geography:: Latin America

145. Exchange on Nick Onuf’s ‘Metaphoricizing Modernity,’ Part III–Reconfiguration of Modernity and/as Metaphor(s)

Author:: Michael Marks and Nicholas Onuf
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: In this Dossier, four scholars reflect on Nicholas Onuf’s leading article, ‘Metaphoricizing modernity’, (re)engaging with – and celebrating – more broadly Onuf’s groundbreaking work from different places, perspectives, and angles. Part III (re)engages with (his) reconfigurations of Modernity and/as metaphor(s), including an extensive, and much careful response from Onuf to those four scholars and their (re)readings published in this Dossier: Celebrating Nicholas Onuf. Michael Marks is the fourth scholar to engage with and reflect on Onuf’s leading article, and his work more broadly. Marks reads Onuf’s essay on metaphoricising modernity as an invitation to see modernity in terms of its metaphorical qualities; that is, as an opportunity to reflect not only on modernity, but on the nature of metaphors and how they figure in scholarly inquiry. More specifically, for him, Onuf’s characterization of modernity as embodying notions of forward motion and territorial physicality is one of the main insights of his essay that could be further explored with additional theoretical analysis. Nicholas Onuf closes this Part and the Dossier more broadly, carefully engaging with and responding to the contributions of Victor Coutinho Lage (in Part I), Manuela Trindade Viana (in Part II), Roberto Vilchez Yamato (in Part II), and Michael Marks (in Part III). Rethinking reconfiguration as a general, constitutive process, Onuf (re)engages with modernization and modernity’s universal ethos, while responding to his postcolonial critics and their (re)readings of his highly generalized model of world-making. In so doing, Onuf also (re)engages with the concept and conceptualization of metaphors, repositioning his work and stance as a form of ‘embodied anti-realism’. For him, old ontologies never die; like metaphors, they just layer up.
Topic:: Modernity, Metaphors, Concepts, and Beginnings
Political Geography:: Global Focus

146. Chinese Double Effect on Brazilian Foreign Policy (2003-2018)

Author:: Yuri Bravo Coutinho and Júlio César Cossio Rodriguez
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This research examines contemporary Brazilian foreign policy, and its central concern is to explore how China’s global rise has impacted the general guidelines of Brazilian foreign policy from 2003 to 2018. We argue that China has had a double impact on Brazilian foreign policy: (i) restraining its scope due to the restrictive nature of Sino-Brazilian relations, primarily via commerce and political divergence, and (ii) enhancing Brazil’s autonomous insertion in the international system due to the structural gaps produced by Chinese diplomatic support in the global sphere and from the convergence of specific agendas. A case study on Sino-Brazilian relations is conducted with typologies on foreign policy actions elaborated by Schweller (1994). Then, we propose that Brazilian foreign policy, through the ‘bandwagoning for profit’ strategy, sought to interpret a Jackal position within the international system. Our variables are defined based on Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell (2016), considering the structural stimulus of China’s rise as the independent variable, the permissiveness, and clarity of the international system as the intervening variable, and the behaviour of Brazilian foreign policy as a dependent variable.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Neoclassical Realism
Political Geography:: China, Brazil, and South America

147. Operation Car Wash beyond Borders: The Making of a Transnational Policing Field

Author:: Priscila Villela
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Investigations by the press have revealed that Operation Car Wash, an anti-corruption task force, received support from the FBI, the American federal agency of criminal investigation. This paper analyses the transnational connections between Brazilian and American law enforcement officers, which led to the formulation and conduction of Operation Car Wash, reconstituting its transnational dimensions, which have yet to receive much attention in the specialised literature. To accomplish this, we have mobilised the field thinking tool developed by Pierre Bourdieu and his interpreters in International Relations, enabling us to reflect on the interactions between police within a specialised social space promoter of socialisation, competition, and cooperation. Beginning with documental research, we have identified the national and international actors involved in the operation, the power relationships between them, their patterns and spaces of interaction, and potential political impacts.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, Transnational Policing, FBI, and Operation Car Wash
Political Geography:: South America, United States of America, and North America

148. Bolsonaro’s Foreign Policy and the Brazilian Bourgeoisie

Author:: Tatiana Berringer and Gustavo Rocha Botão
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This article analyses the Bolsonaro government’s foreign policy and the interests of the Brazilian internal bourgeoisie. The hypothesis is that the internal bourgeoisie supported the 2016 coup d’état and the 2018 election of Jair Bolsonaro but, over the years, they started to exhibit resistance to the government’s political practices and responded to the external pressures related to environmental policy and threats to democracy. The empirical research analysed the position papers of the internal bourgeoisie’s main employer organisations, focusing on the following agendas: i) the Mercosur-EU agreement; ii) entry into the OECD; iii) reformulation of Mercosur’s Common External Tariff (CET); and iv) environmental policy. The study concludes that there were conflicts within the internal bourgeoisie throughout the Bolsonaro administration and, in the end, there was a change in their interests that, alongside other elements, can explain Jair Bolsonaro’s 2022 electoral defeat.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Trade, Jair Bolsonaro, Mercosur, and Bourgeoisie
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

149. Druk (2020) Movie as an Example of Authentic Way of Being: A Heideggerian Approach

Author:: Meltem İşler Sevindi and Atilla Akalın
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Heidegger's philosophical project is generally seen as atheoretical and anti-logical because he remarked on the subjective conditions of knowledge and the everydayness of human behaviors. To him, Dasein's everyday reasoning is coercively and inevitably framed by the present-at-hand modes of understanding. Heidegger alerts us about the possible origins of present-at-hand modes of everyday experience. One of them is Das Man that, is associated with a categorical otherness for Heidegger. It can be regarded as an origin of the primordial scheme of experiences for Dasein that takes those experiences for granted as an axiological ground for their lives in the World. Heidegger sees that process as an inauthentic condition for Dasein's fundamental character. Everyday reasoning generates a variety of present-at-hand instruments to understand and interpret the World and Dasein itself; thus, Dasein moves between Das Man and authentic modes. With a Heideggerian approach, this article observes how the characters in the film Druk take themselves out of Das Man and go into the authentic mode and how they do this through alcohol. The primary data source is Druk and the four teacher characters in the film. In the movie, alcohol is not a ready-to-hand object but a tool motivating its users and pushing them to perform. It is an example equivalent to the Heideggerian analogy of the hammer. The movie is a well-fitting example of the Heideggerian position with the story of four teachers who experiment with having a certain amount of alcohol in their blood to achieve a better version of themselves.
Topic:: Film, Philosophy, Alcohol, and Martin Heidegger
Political Geography:: Global Focus

150. Developmental States in Africa: The Mauritian Miracle

Author:: Anwar Seman Kedir
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: A developmental state is both a theoretical construct and a description of the political economy of certain nations, primarily in East Asia, over a specified time period. Theoretically, a developmental state is a particular type of state with a high degree of autonomy and solid institutional competence, allowing it to undertake a series of effective state-interventionist policies in pursuit of developmental objectives. Statism and state autonomy underpin the conceptual framework of the developmental state. The developmental state defied the neoclassical orthodoxy in development economics. Despite lacking the attributes of the mainstream neoclassical consensus in development economics and facing an uphill battle from such institutions, developmental states in various regions of the world have achieved high levels of economic growth. This study seeks to investigate the developmental state trajectories of Mauritius in relation to vital elements of developmental states. In an effort to do so, this study poses the following question: "What accounts for Mauritius' development state success in Africa?". By looking at the link between institutional building and economic performance, the study finds that Mauritius has replicated key developmental state institutions, including embedded and autonomous bureaucracy, making it one of Africa’s most successful developmental states.
Topic:: Development, International Political Economy, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Africa and Mauritius

151. Theoretical Reviewing Of Overlapping Consensus In The Context Of Abortion Debate

Author:: Ayla Akdoğan
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the late modern era, modern constitutions have been trying to keep both group rights as minority rights and individual rights. But, in some cases, it is still ambiguous if an action or a phenomenon must refer to individual rights or group rights. Abortion discussions, with regard to political rights, are one example of these ambiguous cases. In this context, whereas Liberal view tends to regard abortion as individual rights of a woman, Communitarian view can be against it by pointing out the right to life and this case may lead to a kind of liberal constitutional crises. This article gains importance as such constitutional crises still emerge even nowadays. John Rawls’s theory of overlapping consensus in Political Liberalism tries to solve these political conflicts that emerged in liberal constitutions by prioritizing public reason. This article conceptionally aims to examine Rawls’s theory in terms of prioritization and value relativity in abortion discussions. The method of article is hermeneutics. In order to extend the universe of the discussion, some important thinkers such as Immanuel Kant, Isaiah Berlin and John Gray, who have related studies on the topic, were included. In conclusion, it is asserted that Rawl’s theory is weak both practically and theoretically as to the principle of utilitarianism violates the rights of communitarians.
Topic:: Constitution, Political Science, Pluralism, Consensus, Abortion, Individual Rights, and Group Rights
Political Geography:: Global Focus

152. The Role of Radio and Umm Kulthum’s Voice in Spreading Nasserite Arab Nationalism

Author:: Jalal Ts Selmi and Mehmet Rakipoğlu
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Gamal Abdel Nasser, who ascended to power via a military coup, espoused socialist-oriented facets of Arab nationalism after he assumed government. For Nasser to effectively disseminate Arab nationalism beyond the confines of national boundaries, he needed to possess potent political propaganda instruments. During the era of Nasser, radio broadcasts and musical compositions emerged as very influential means of propaganda, prompting substantial investments in financial and material resources. Umm Kulthum's vocal prowess emerged as particularly prominent in endorsing Nasser's Arab nationalism endeavour, surpassing the contributions of other artists whose vocal abilities were employed. This study aims to examine the dissemination of Nasser's Arab nationalism during the 1950s and 1960s, employing propaganda tactics such as Umm Kulthum's vocal prowess and the Voice of Arabs radio. This paper examines the various dimensions of Umm Kulthum's contribution to disseminating Arab Nasserite nationalism by focusing on five key aspects. Firstly, it explores the utilisation of soft power as a means to disseminate political ideals and foster a shared sense of identity. Secondly, it delves into the role of Nasser's nationalism and radio broadcasts in this process. Thirdly, it investigates the radio as a tool for political propaganda in support of Nasser. Fourthly, it analyses Umm Kulthum's instrumental role in promoting Nasserite Arab nationalism. Lastly, it assesses the impact of Umm Kulthum's vocal prowess on the proliferation of Nasserite nationalism throughout the Arab world.
Topic:: Nationalism, Soft Power, Umm Kulthum, and Gamal Abdel Nasser
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and North Africa

153. Role Conceptions and Leadership Rivalry in the Middle East: Transforming Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Relations

Author:: Muhammed Yakup İnan
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: In recent years, the Middle East has often been the subject of foreign interventions and the interests of superpowers. The effect of internal dynamics was pushed to the background in regional developments as a result of this situation. It is very important, however, to analyze the Middle East by understanding the power struggles between the regional powers Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran. This article examines the leadership struggle and role conceptualizations between the regional powers of the Middle East with a focus on the relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It argues that Turkey is not a rival to Saudi Arabia's national role conceptions in the Gulf region, but rather a favorable partner when it comes to Gulf security and economic relations. Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia will follow a positive course with mutual normalization steps and Turkey's export-led growth and regional cooperation strategies.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Leadership, Economy, Regional Power, and Role Conceptions
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

154. The Examination of the Identities Defining Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Başak Özoral
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Social constructivism theory, one of the theories of the field of international relations, deals with the current problems of modern life and offers solutions to them. Identity structuring in the nation-building process and the elements that make up identity constitute one of the main working subjects of social constructionists. In this study, Islam, Wahhabism, Bedouinism, regional leadership, energy geopolitics, which are effective in the foreign policy determination process of Saudi Arabia, will be tried to be explained through the constructivism theory as the main factors that determine the Saudi identity. Along with the semantic changes that Saudi identity has expressed for Saudi Arabia from the past, its effect on current politics is determined, and the geopolitical position of Saudi Arabia and the strategic orientations caused by this position are discussed. In addition, the policies that Saudi Arabia started to follow in the post-Arab Spring period are examined, especially with an emphasis on its relationship with the Islamic identity. A holistic framework for Saudi Arabia's foreign policy will be drawn by listing various approaches to the identities mentioned in the article. It will also focus on the internal dynamics that are important in the formation of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy identities.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Nation-State, Identity, and Social Constructivism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

155. Lebanese-Turkish Relations after the 2000s and the Neo-Ottomanist Discourse in Lebanon

Author:: Tuba Yıldız
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Lebanon, had non-visible relationships with Turkey after its independence and the post-civil war period. Although it lost the balance of political stability at times, the political affinity that emerged with the participation of Lebanon in the close relations, which Turkey sought to establish with Arab countries in the 2000s, continued with mutual negotiations at the point of cooperation. After the Lebanon-Israel war in 2006, which caused political and economic destruction in the country, Turkey increased its support for Lebanon. Accordingly, the crises appeared after the Arab Spring in the region led Turkey to follow the sensitive policy over the sectarian groups in the country. However, some reactions arose in Lebanon’s political arena against Turkey’s increasing regional activism, bringing several ideological questions on Turkey’s approach towards Lebanon. Regarding the relationship between Turkey and Lebanon, “Does Turkey desire to establish a new Ottoman administration in the Middle East?” was one of the questions asked. Moreover, a negative environment was created and used occasionally as a trump card against Turkey’s approach toward Lebanon, saying that even the Ottoman Empire did not play an active role in the Lebanon region. This study examines whether there are traces of Neo-Ottomanism and sectarianism in the political roadmap followed by the Turkish Government in its Lebanon policy. It discusses, the diplomatic response of Turkey to the anti-Ottoman rhetoric in Lebanese politics and its effect on bilateral relations. Accordingly, the study analyzes Turkey’s effort to maintain the balance against sectarian discourse that shapes Lebanon’s policy.
Topic:: Politics, Sectarianism, Neo-Ottomanism, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Lebanon

156. Analysis of Foreign Trade Between Türkiye and Africa

Author:: Şükrü Cicioğlu and Ryan Hafiz Ahmed İbrahim
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: While enhancing our economic relations with African countries was positioned as a target within Türkiye’s vision, especially after the Cold War, this could only come true in the first decade of the 21st century. As a result, there have been significant trade volume developments. Although Türkiye had a trade deficit with Africa from the mid-90s to the early 2000s, it became a surplus party in the subsequent period due to stagnation and the impacts of various crises. The trade with Africa is primarily with North African countries due to geographical proximity and historical ties. While Africa's share in Türkiye's total foreign trade volume has been gradually increasing, it remains significantly lower compared to Asia and Europe. Relations between the continent and Türkiye haven’t grown stronger yet, mainly because most African countries were former colonies. On the other hand, Türkiye's geographical proximity to Africa offers a significant opportunity to meet African countries' agricultural and food needs. In this context, this study aims to analyze Türkiye’s trade with the African continent and to reveal the opportunities, threats, strengths, and weaknesses this trade offers for both actors. Furthermore, the study provides recommendations to enhance these relations in this framework.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, History, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, and Middle East

157. Çocuk Yoksulluğunun Genel Görünümü ve Türkiye’de Çocuk Yoksulluğunun Son Hali

Author:: Ruhal Samanlı
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Amaç Bu çalışmada bir ağ gibi insanlığı sarmış olan yoksulluk ve yoksulluğun boyutları, çocuk yoksulluğunun görünümü, çocuk yoksulluğunun etkileyenleri, çocuk yoksulların yaşam alanlarındaki halleri, çocuk yoksulluğunu azaltmaya yönelik yatırım teorileri ve Türkiye’de çocuk yoksulların durumu anlatılacaktır. Yöntem/Metodoloji/Dizayn-. Çocuklar neden yoksuldur? Sorusuna cevap bulmak için çalışmada öncelikle konu ile ilişkili dokümanlar analiz edilecektir. Amaçları ve sonuçları bağlamında incelenen dokümanlardan bir değerlendirmeye varılacaktır. Sonuçlar-- Bu çalışmada çocuk yoksulluğunun ailenin yoksulluğu ile ilişkili olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. İyi eğitim almış çocukların yetişkinlikte yoksulluk içinde olmayacakları ve onların çocuklarının da yoksul olmayacağını söylemek gerekmektedir. Katkı/Farklılıklar- Bu çalışmada çocuk yoksulluğuna çok boyutlu yoksulluk yaklaşımı ile bakılarak bütünsel bir bakış sağlanacaktır.
Topic:: Children, Inequality, and Child Poverty
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

158. İş Sağlığı ve Güvenliği Profesyonellerinin Temel Sorunları

Author:: Esra Kaya Erdoğan and Kemal Gökmen Genç
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Amaç- Bu çalışmanın amacı; iş sağlığı ve güvenliği (İSG) profesyonellerinin ana sorunlarını tespit etmek ve çözüm önerileri sunmaktır. Yöntem/Metodoloji/Dizayn- Çalışmada bu sorunları tespit etmek amacıyla 50 İSG profesyoneli ile mülakatlar yapılmıştır. Elde edilen veriler betimsel olarak analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar- Çalışma sonucunda; iletişim, iş birliği, denetim, mevzuat, farkındalık, güvenlik kültürü, güvenlik liderliği ile işveren ve yönetim eksenli problemlerin yaşandığı ortaya çıkmıştır. Katkı/Farklılıklar- Literatürde saha araştırmaları İSG profesyonellerinden çoğunlukla iş güvenliği uzmanlarına dönüktür. Bu çalışmada tüm İSG profesyonellerinin görüşleri analiz edilmiştir.
Topic:: Legislation, Survey, Professions, and Occupational Health and Safety
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

159. Millet Partisi'nin Doğuş Teorileri ve Parti Tipolojileri Bağlamında Değerlendirilmesi

Author:: Muttaki Ünlü
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Türkiye'nin çok partili hayata geçmesiyle Türk siyasi hayatında sahneye çıkan partilerden biri olan Millet Partisi (MP) kısa ömrüne ve sönük geçen siyasi macerasına rağmen incelenmeye değer önemli yönlere sahiptir. II. Dünya Savaşı'nın ardından oluşan uluslararası atmosfer ülkeleri yeni dünya düzeninde kendi yerlerini alma çabasına itmiştir. Bu bakımdan Türkiye'de çok partili hayata geçilmesi dikkat çekicidir. Çok partili hayatın yeni başladığı yıllarda Demokrat Parti (DP) ile birlikte mecliste muhalefet sıralarını işgal eden MP Cumhuriyet’in ilk siyasi partilerinden olmasının yanında kısa ömrüne rağmen, kapatıldıktan sonra da etkisi devam eden bir parti olmaklığıyla önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı MP'yi siyasi partiler hakkında ileri sürülen doğuş teorileri ve parti tipolojileri bağlamında analiz etmektir. Çalışmada esasen "MP doğuş teorileri çerçevesinde nasıl açıklanabilir? Parti tipolojileri bakımından hangi tipe uymakta yahut yakın düşmektedir?" sorularına cevap aranmaktadır. Elde edilen başlıca sonuç olarak MP'nin doğuş teorileri bakımından parlamento içi parti kategorisine dâhil edilebileceği, katılma krizi ve modernleşme teorisi ile de ortaya çıkışının açıklanabileceği hususları gösterilecektir. Tipolojik değerlendirmesi yapıldığında da MP'nin bir yaklaşıma göre kadro partisi özellikleri gösterirken bir başka yaklaşıma göre bireysel temsil partisi özellikleri taşıdığı anlaşılmıştır.
Topic:: History, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Nation Party (NP)
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

160. Türkiye’de Milliyetçi Siyasetçilerin Suriyeli Sığınmacılara Bakışlarının Nefret Söylemi Bağlamında İncelenmesi

Author:: Muhammet Sait Pınarbaşi
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Türkiye ve dünyada nefret söylemi çalışmaları incelendiğinde, çoğunlukla sosyal medya üzerinden yapılan çalışmalarla toplumdaki nefret söyleminin ölçüldüğü, siyasi parti liderleri özelinde, siyasal iletişimde nefret söylemi çalışmalarının sayıca çok az olduğu söylenebilir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de resmi rakamlara göre sayıları 3,5 milyon civarında olan geçici koruma kapsamında bulunan Suriyelilere ilişkin Türkiye’deki milliyetçi siyasal parti liderlerinin nefret söylemini kullanıp kullanmadığını ortaya çıkarma amacındadır. 2011 yılından itibaren Suriyelilerin Türkiye’ye göçü ile birçok şehirde demografik yapının bozulduğu ve çok çeşitli toplumsal sorunların ortaya çıktığı söylenebilir. Ancak nefret söyleminin, toplumda daha derin yaralara yol açılmasına sebep olabilecek olan “nefret suçlarını” ortaya çıkarma potansiyeli bulunmaktadır. Bu bağlamda önem arz eden çalışmada, Devlet Bahçeli, Meral Akşener ve Ümit Özdağ’ın açıklamaları söylem analizi yöntemi ile incelenmiştir. Bu incelemelerin sonucunda, Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi lideri Bahçeli’nin, geçici koruma kapsamında bulunan Suriyeliler ile ilgili söylemlerinde önyargılı aktarımlar ve ayrımcılık yaratıcı unsurlara rastlanmamakla beraber geçici koruma kapsamında bulunan Suriyelilere dostane şekilde yaklaştığı; İyi Parti lideri Akşener’in de ayrımcılık, ötekileştirme veya önyargılı söylemlerden uzak durduğu gözükmektedir. Buna karşın, Zafer Partisi lideri Özdağ’ın, toplumda meydana gelen neredeyse bütün olumsuzlukları geçici koruma kapsamında bulunan Suriyeliler ile ilişkilendirdiği ve yine neredeyse her zaman ayrıştırıcı ve ötekileştirici söylemler kullandığı görülmektedir. Zafer Partisi’nin kuruluşundan sonra söylemleri keskinleşmiş olup, önyargılı aktarımlara da çokça başvurmaktadır. Bu durum da, Özdağ’ın söylemlerinin nefret içerikli oluşu sonucunu beraberinde getirmektedir.
Topic:: Nationalism, Elections, Refugees, Domestic Politics, Syrian War, and Hate Speech
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

161. Türkiye’de 1950-2014 Yılları Arasında Sağ Muhafazakâr Siyasette Yaşanan Değişim

Author:: İsmail Kıran
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: 14 Mayıs 1950’de yapılan seçimle “geleneksel kesim” ile “Anadolu köylüsü”nün birlikte hareket etmesi sonucu Demokrat Parti’nin (DP) meydana getirdiği “sessiz yığın”ların başlatmış olduğu iktidar yürüyüşü büyük bir başarı ile kazanılmıştır. Bu başarı “beyaz ihtilal” olarak tanımlanmıştır. Buna halkın Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi’nin (CHP) politikalarına duyduğu tepki neden olmuştur. Böylece “Yeter Söz Milletindir” yaklaşımı halk tarafından karşılık bulmuş ve DP’nin seçimi kazanması ile Türkiye’de iktidar değişikliği beraberinde elit değişimini de getirmiştir. Bu sonuç Şerif Mardin’in ifadesiyle çevrenin merkez üzerindeki zaferidir. Buna karşı çıkanlar ise bunu “karşı devrim” olarak nitelendirmişlerdir. Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP) ise 3 Kasım 2002’de “Yeter Karar Milletindir” söylemi ile yola çıkmış ve “geleneksel dindar” kesim ile “Anadolu kaplanları”nın yaptığı güç birliği sonucu “sessiz devrim” yaparak iktidara gelmiştir. AKP’yi 2014 yılına kadar iktidarda tutan kadrolar elitist değillerdi bu nedenle de kimlik siyaseti yapmamışlardır. Kendilerini Türkiye’nin kültür birikimini korumaları anlamında “muhafazakâr”, modern kurum ve değerleri savunma anlamında ise “demokrat” olarak tanımlanmışlardır. “Muhafazakâr demokrat” kimliğin kabul görmesi bu nedenle olmuştur. Nitel araştırma yöntemi kullanılarak yazılan makale Türkiye’de 1950- 2014 yılları arasında sağ muhafazakâr siyasette yaşanan değişimi açıklamaktadır. 1950 yılında iktidara gelen Demokrat Parti ile birlikte Türkiye’de büyük bir değişim başlatılmıştır. Başlatılan bu değişim Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi iktidarı ile birlikte sağ muhafazakâr siyasette cumhurbaşkanının doğrudan halk tarafından seçildiği 10 Ağustos 2014 tarihine kadar devam etmiştir.
Topic:: History, Domestic Politics, Conservatism, and Political Change
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

162. Mali Suçlarla Mücadelede Mali İstihbaratın Rolünün Değerlendirilmesi

Author:: Hüseyin Akkaya
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Günümüzde mali suçların önlenmesi ve tespit edilmesi, ülkelerin en önemli konularının başında yer almaktadır. Bu konu aynı zamanda mali istihbarat birimlerinin de temel mücadele mekanizmasını oluşturmaktadır. Mali suçların doğası gereği sınıraşan nitelikte olması beraberinde bu suçlarla mücadele açısından bir takım zorluklar ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Bu zorluklardan bir tanesi mali suçların ekonomik olarak ölçülmesinin imkânsız olmasıdır. Bu zorlukların ortadan kaldırılmasında en önemli etkenlerin başında mali istihbarat ve uluslararası işbirliği gelmektedir. Mali istihbarat, mali suçlarla mücadele edilmesinde ve suçun önlenmesinde etkili ve verimli bir şekilde mali istihbarat birimlerine yardımcı olmaktadır. Mali istihbarat, mali suçlarla mücadelede mali istihbarat birimlerinin verilerden yola çıkarak oluşturduğu analiz ve tipolojilerden meydana gelmektedir. Mali suçlarla mücadelede mali istihbaratın doğruluğu ve ortaya çıkacak olan finansal zekâ, suçun önlenmesi ve işlenmesi durumunda çözüme kavuşturulması için gereken en önemli olgu olarak kabul edilmektedir. Mali suçlarla mücadele eden pek çok uluslararası kurum bulunmaktadır. Başta FATF ve EGMONT Grup genel çerçevede mali suç faaliyetlerine ve mali istihbarat birimlerine yönelik çalışmalar sürdürmektedir. Bunun yanı sıra yerel olarak faaliyet gösteren ülke mali istihbarat birimleri tarafından da mali suçlarla mücadele edilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, mali suç türlerinin nelerden oluştuğunu belirtmek, mali istihbarat birimi kavramının üzerinde durmak ve mali istihbaratın mali suçlarla mücadeledeki rolünü incelemektir. Mali suçlarla mücadele edilirken mali istihbaratın rolünün değerlendirilmesi üzerine oluşturulan bu çalışma ile mali suçların durumu değerlendirilecektir.
Topic:: Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Financial Crimes, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:: Global Focus

163. BlackRock ve ABD Hegemonyası

Author:: Muhammet Sait Pınarbaşi
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: 1980’lerde başlayan uluslararası ekonomi politik gelişmeler kurumsal yönetişim rejimini de etkileyerek, varlık yöneticisi kapitalizmi olarak adlandırılan bir sürece girilmesine ve bu sürecin sonunda yeni ekonomi politik aktörler olan dev varlık yöneticisi şirketlerinin önemli ölçüde büyümesine sebep olmuştur. Ekonomik sistemde hâkimiyetin, rızaya dayalı tahakküm biçimi olarak hegemonyanın ön koşullarından birisi olarak sayılması, bu şirketlerin en büyüğü olan BlackRock’ın ABD hegemonyasındaki konumunun değerlendirilmesinin önünü açmıştır. Konuyla ilgili eserlerin incelendiği literatür taramasının yanında yorumsamacı yaklaşımdan yararlanılarak yapılan çalışmada BlackRock’ı ABD hegemonyası perspektifinden araştırmak hedeflenmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda yapılan araştırmanın sonucunda, yönetimi altındaki varlıkların 10 trilyon dolara ulaştığı BlackRock’ın; ABD ile yakın ilişkisi, ekonomik kriz dönemlerindeki kurtarıcı rolü, dünyanın en büyük finans kuruluşlarına (merkez bankaları dahil) danışmanlık yapması, hissedar olduğu binlerce şirketin genel kurulunda oylama hakkı bulunması ve 2012’den itibaren her yıl yayınlanan mektuplar aracılığıyla küresel ekonomik sisteme önemli ölçüde etki etme kabiliyeti bir bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde ABD hegemonyası lehine konumlandığı gözükmektedir.
Topic:: Political Economy, Hegemony, Capitalism, and BlackRock
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

164. Kadın Maden Mühendisliği Bölümü Öğrencilerinin Gözünden Maden Mühendisliği Mesleğinin Toplumsal Cinsiyet Algısına Dayalı Olarak Değerlendirilmesi

Author:: Tuğba Deniz Tombal
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Bu çalışmada, Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de halen erkek egemen bir alan olarak kabul edilen maden mühendisliği mesleğine kadın maden mühendisliği öğrencilerinin perspektifinden bakarak mesleğin toplumsal cinsiyet eşitliği yönünden irdelenmesi hedeflenmiştir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de maden mühendisliği eğitimi alan kadın öğrencilerin, eğitim hayatlarında cinsiyetçi rollere dayalı olarak karşılaştıkları sorunları tespit etmeyi ve çözüm önerileri sunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, 76 katılımcının görüşlerine dayalı olarak bir saha çalışması gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada katılımcılara iki kısımdan oluşan bir dijital anket dağıtılmıştır. Anketin ilk kısmında demografik bilgiler, ikinci kısmında ise katılımcıların mesleklerini toplumsal cinsiyete dayalı olarak değerlendirmelerine ilişkin sorular sorulmuştur. Çalışmadan elde edilen veriler değerlendirilerek ve yorumlanarak çözüm önerileri sunulmuştur.
Topic:: Inequality, Mining, Students, Engineering, Gender, and Perception
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

165. Türkiye’de Yoksulluğun Görünümü ve Yoksullukla Mücadelede Aile ve Sosyal Hizmetler Bakanlığının Rolü

Author:: Cihan Selek Öz and Murat Erusta
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Küresel bir sorun olan yoksulluk her ülkede farklı şekillerde görülmektedir. Özellikle 1980’lerden sonra uygulanmaya başlayan neo-liberal ekonomi politikaları tüm dünyada olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de gelir dağılımındaki adaleti bozmuş, yoksulluğu daha görünür hale getirmiştir. Bugün Gini katsayısının 0,415 olarak ölçüldüğü Türkiye’de, en zengin yüzde yirmilik kesim ile en yoksul yüzde yirmilik kesim arasındaki gelir farkı 7,9 kata ulaşmıştır. Bu tablodan yola çıkarak çalışmada Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu’nun güncel Gelir Dağılımı ile Yoksulluk ve Yaşam Koşulları İstatistiklerinden yararlanılarak Türkiye’de yoksulluğun görünümü hakkında bilgi verilmiş ve yoksullukla mücadele konusunda temel aktör olan Aile ve Sosyal Hizmetler Bakanlığı’nın uygulamaları incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda Bakanlığın yoksullukla mücadele politikalarının sosyal hizmetler ve sosyal yardımlar (özellikle nakdi sosyal yardımlar) etrafında şekillendiği tespit edilmiş, yoksullukla mücadelede insanların işlevselliğini artıran, onları yapabilir kılan eğitim, sağlık, istihdam bağlantılı etkin sosyal politikaların önemi vurgulanmıştır.
Topic:: Poverty, Inequality, Neoliberalism, Social Services, and Social Assistance
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

166. Dijital Ekonomi ve Türkiye’nin Dijital Ekonomi Göstergelerinin Seçilmiş AB Ülkeleri ile Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Author:: E. Murat Özgür
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Amaç - Çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye’nin dijital ekonomiye adaptasyon sürecinin incelenmesidir. Türkiye AB adayı bir ülkedir. Bu nedenle birlik üyesi ülkeler ile karşılaştırma yapılmış, Türkiye’nin bu ül-keler karşısında hangi yönlerini geliştirmesi gerektiği tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Eksik yönler belirlenerek bu eksiklikleri giderecek politikalar oluşturulursa Türkiye’nin dijital ekonomiye daha hızlı ve kolay adapte olması sağlanabilir. Yöntem/Metodoloji/Dizayn- Çalışmada, nitel analiz yöntemi kullanılmıştır. 2023 yılında yayınlanan en güncel Küresel İnovasyon Endeksi raporundaki göstergeler incelenmiştir. 2023 yılı raporuna göre genel endeks puanı en yüksek ve en düşük olan AB ülkeleri ile Türki-ye arasında karşılaştırma yapılmıştır. En yüksek puan İsveç’e, en düşük puan ise Romanya’ya aittir. Sonuçlar- Türkiye’nin dijital ekonomiye adaptasyon sürecinde özel-likle kurumsal kaliteyi artırması gerektiği ifade edilebilir Politik ve operasyonel istikrar, işten çıkarma maliyeti, iş yapma politikaları Türkiye’nin kurumlar boyutundaki zayıf yönlerini oluşturmaktadır. Ayrıca Türkiye’nin ekolojik sürdürülebilirlik konusunda AB ülkelerinin geri-sinde kaldığı, çevreye duyarlı bir ekonomik yapı oluşturma konusunda daha somut adımlar atması gerektiği görülmektedir. Katkı/Farklılıklar- Küresel İnovasyon Endeksi, ele alınan göstergelerin çeşitliliği ve inceleme yapılan ülke sayısı ile dijital ekonomiyi bütünsel olarak yansıtan ölçüm yöntemlerinden biridir. Bu endekste yer alan bütün boyut ve göstergeleri ayrıntılı olarak incelemesi, Türki-ye’nin AB ülkeleri karşısındaki durumu hakkında bilgi vermesi açısından çalışmanın önemli olduğu ifade edilebilir.
Topic:: Communications, European Union, Digital Economy, Innovation, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

167. Examining China’s Grand Strategy For RISC-V

Author:: Sunny Cheung
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On November 24, 2023, DAMO Academy (達摩院; literally “Dharma”), Alibaba’s research division, unveiled three ground-breaking processors rooted in the open-source RISC-V architecture. The Xuantie (玄铁) C920, Xuantie C907, and Xuantie R910 processors promise to accelerate application of RISC-V technology into diverse sectors, from autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence (AI) to enterprise hard drives and network communications (Mydrivers News, November 24). These processors signify a strategic attempt by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to break out of the technological containment led by the United States through leveraging open-source hardware (OSHW). RISC-V products are proliferating around the world at a compound annual growth rate of 40 percent. Projections suggest that by 2030, RISC-V chips could attain a 25 percent market share in the system-on-chip (SoC) sector (WSJ, December 14). RISC-V therefore has a pivotal role in shaping the future of the industry. The Chinese government’s rapid, focused, and coordinated investment in RISC-V suggests that a closer examination of this understudied and emerging technology is warranted, especially in light of the limited policy coordination and discussions around RISC-V in other countries, particularly the United States.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Grand Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, and Research and Development
Political Geography:: China and Asia

168. CCP Ideological Indoctrination, Part 1: The PRC’s New “Patriotic Education Law”

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On October 24, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee (全国人民代表大会常务委) officially codified the country’s existing initiatives for “patriotic education (PE; 爱国主义教育)” by promulgating the People’s Republic of China Patriotic Education Law (中华人民共和国爱国主义教育法). This mandates indoctrination in state-directed ideological content throughout all sectors of society (PRC Government, October 25). While CCP policy documents are always more important than formal PRC law, the Party-state does use formal laws passed by the National People’s Congress (全国人民代表大会) to codify and emphasize Party policies. This law appears to be no exception. [1] The unveiling of the new Patriotic Education Law has been accompanied by a campaign of predictably laudatory coverage in PRC state media. For example, the CCP mouthpiece People’s Daily ran a flowery editorial that quoted a professor from the China University of Political Science and Law as stating that “implementing the patriotic education law will enhance the daily practice of patriotic spirit” among the Chinese people. The editorial itself opined that the NPC had, “on the basis of the rule of law, promoted and guaranteed New Era patriotic education, inspiring the nation’s spirit, concentrating the people’s strength, advancing the building of a strong country [and] national revival with extremely significant and profound meaning” (People’s Daily, November 23). Such coverage has appeared alongside other official messaging emphasizing the need for enhanced focus on ideological instruction. For example, the mid-October issue of the CCP’s official journal Qiushi (求实) was a themed issue focused on ideology. It featured a lead article under Xi’s name titled “Open New Frontiers for the Sinicization and Modernization of Marxism.” It also included a list of articles on supporting themes, such as a Central Party School article titled “In the New Era and New Journey, Unceasingly Advance the Party’s Innovations in Theory” (Qiushi, October 16).
Topic:: Education, Law, Ideology, Political Parties, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Indoctrination
Political Geography:: China and Asia

169. PLA Air Force Increases Flexibility of Combat Support Units

Author:: Derek Solen
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In early November, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) published photographs of army helicopters taking off from an “air force station” of the Eastern Theater Command during a “trans-regional operation” in late October (China Military Online, November 10). “Air force station” likely refers to the “field station” or combat support unit that services the airbase from which the helicopters took off. The photographs visually substantiate an article from June in which it was reported that all the field stations of an unspecified air defense base of the Eastern Theater Air Force had developed the capability to conduct joint combat support. The report mentioned that the field stations were servicing aircraft of various types from different services, even including a vignette of one field station conducting “combat sustainment” for an army helicopter in addition to servicing fighters and special mission aircraft (PLA Daily, June 16). The field stations’ actual joint combat support capability is likely to be nascent, but it rests on a foundation of greater flexibility that the field stations have achieved over the past decade to operate outside their routines and to service various types of aircraft. That foundation should also make the combat support units of the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) a more resilient force that is better able to support agile aviation units.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Air Force, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

170. Contradictions Within The PRC’s Climate Strategy

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The 28th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) drew to a close earlier this week (UNEP, December 13). The COP meetings always produce a mixture of successes and disappointments, and only constitute a portion of the myriad processes that impact the global energy transition and race to stabilize the planetary system. This year’s conference was no different. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) was actively engaged throughout, hosting a variety of events at their pavilion reflecting the breadth and depth of the country’s critical engagement with the issues (National Climate Strategy Center, November 28). However, the PRC’s is still appraised as falling far short of what is required to meet the Paris climate goals and is not commensurate with its position in the international system (Climate Action Tracker, November 22). This year, the PRC ranks first in the world for total annual emissions, and second in both cumulative (historical) emissions and GDP. Meanwhile, it has failed to advance its ambitions or provide leadership to match its rhetoric of being—to use Xi Jinping’s words from his Party Congress speech—an “important participant, contributor, and torchbearer” in addressing climate change (Xinhua, November 3, 2017). The PRC delegation constituted the joint-third largest at the conference, and was led by Zhao Yingmin (赵英民), vice-minister at the Ministry of Environment and Ecology (MEE). Also present were minister Huang Runqiu (黄润秋), special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua (解振华), and UN under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs Liu Zhenmin (刘振民), who is expected to replace Xie as he steps down after 25 years as the PRC’s top climate negotiator. Crucially, Executive Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang (丁薛祥), a Politburo Standing Committee member who holds real power over China’s climate policy (in a way that the MEE officials do not), also attended.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

171. The Sino-French Relationship At 60: China’s Losing Bet On A Reset

Author:: Juliana Bouchard
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Against a background of increasingly fraught relations with the European Commission, China has been doubling down on its outreach to member states, with France chief among them. The two countries have been gearing up to the 60th anniversary of their bilateral relationship in January 2024 with a flurry of diplomatic exchanges. These have included high-level visits by President Emmanuel Macron in April, Economic Minister Bruno Le Maire in July, diplomatic adviser Emmanuel Bonne in late October, and most recently Foreign Affairs Minister Catherine Colonna (FMPRC, November 22). On the Chinese side, Premier Li Qiang traveled to Paris in June to take part in the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact. However, this year also saw Paris deal some blows to China’s economic ambitions, with Macron being one of the driving forces behind Brussels’ ongoing anti-subsidy investigation into China-made electric vehicles and revamping its own EV purchase credits to exclude Chinese-made models (Service Public, October 10). During Bonne’s visit, Wang Yi framed his expectations for the anniversary in no uncertain terms, calling on China and France to “revisit the original intention (重温建交初衷)” of their bilateral ties and “consolidate and reset (巩固和再出发) the relationship” (FMPRC, October 30). Paris’ appetite for meeting Beijing halfway in “resetting” the relationship is far less certain. Most likely, China’s lofty ambitions for a reset will be met with more ambiguity from France, continuing its diplomatic outreach to safeguard economic opportunities in China, all the while pushing for more assertive policies within Brussels to achieve its vision of “strategic autonomy.” While some scholars are not entirely immune to the “dual-faced (两面性)” nature of French diplomacy (Fudan Development Institute, March 2), a prevalent view—or hope—among officials in Beijing is that Macron’s vision of strategic autonomy is primarily about asserting an independent foreign policy from the United States. However, in reality, strategic autonomy also informs France’s own de-risking agenda toward China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and France

172. Decoding China’s Dilemma: The Difficulties Of Economic Reform

Author:: Sunny Cheung
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On November 27, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) unveiled a new policy, titled “Notice on Strengthening Financial Support Measures for the Private Economy (关于强化金融支持举措助力民营经济发展壮大的通知)” (People’s Bank of China, November 27). The notice introduces a set of 25 measures crafted to reinvigorate the private sector. These prioritize key areas such as technological innovation, green initiatives, and primary support for small to medium-sized enterprises. The package includes increasing financial assistance and gradually enhancing the proportion of loans to private businesses. It underscores the importance of facilitating credit, lowering interest rates, issuing bonds, and other kinds of financial instruments to meet the varied financing needs of private enterprises. This policy measure echoes mandates put forth during the 20th Party Congress in October 2022 and Central Financial Work Conference held at the end of October 2023 in response to China’s deepening economic woes (Xinhua, November 1). This backdrop has prompted policies aimed at addressing the challenges facing the Chinese economy. In October, the PRC National Bureau of Statistics announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.2 percent year-on-year—worse than expected and marking a contraction since July (RTHK, November 9). This ominous data, which includes price deflation for both July and October this year, is indicative of significant weakness in domestic demand, particularly due to the underperforming real estate market, which affects citizens’ expectations for asset prices. The ongoing economic downturn in China also refutes the notion that economic chaos would clear up after the abandonment of the Zero-Covid policy. This situation is also similar to the Japan-style recession in the 90s in which consumption and investment are further repressed in favor of paying down debt. China’s recent response has been to implement a series of economic stimulus measures in an attempt to revive its weakening national economy.
Topic:: Economics, Reform, Business, and Banking
Political Geography:: China and Asia

173. Moonshot vs. Long March: Contrasting the United States’s and China’s Space Programs

Author:: Katherine Kurata and David Lin
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On the morning of November 2, 2023, the Gobi Desert’s silence was shattered: From a remote launchpad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center (中国酒泉卫星发射中心), the Hyperbola-2 (双曲线二号), a slender rocket bearing the iSpace emblem (星际荣耀), surged upwards, before gracefully alighting back on Earth (iSpace WeChat, November 2; CNSA, November 2). This suborbital hop marked a major achievement for iSpace as the company progresses towards developing reusable medium-lift rockets. The test demonstrated key technologies like the methalox engine and landing capabilities that will enable iSpace’s larger reusable rocket plans with Hyperbola-3. In China’s rapidly growing commercial space industry, iSpace, alongside other ambitious startups like Galactic Energy (星河动力), CAS Space (中科宇航探索技术), and Deep Blue Aerospace (深蓝航天), are striving to replicate the success of American pioneers such as SpaceX (Galactic Energy WeChat, July 24; CAS Space WeChat, April 4; Deep Blue Aerospace WeChat, May 7, 2022). Their goal: to revolutionize orbital access with reusable rocket technology. The success on November 2 was more than an engineering accomplishment; it was a testament to China’s emerging “innovation power”—its capacity to create, adopt, and seamlessly integrate new technologies (Foreign Affairs, February 28; US House of Representatives, May 17). This successful launch marks not just a step forward in technological capability but also a strategic shift in the global space race. With a unique mix of state guidance and entrepreneurial zeal, China is charting an alternate path in space exploration, contrasting sharply with the United States’s focus on private sector innovation. As the United States and China advance their respective space programs, their differing approaches are reshaping the landscape of space leadership. While America champions private sector innovation, China exerts centralized state control. Yet amidst an increasingly congested orbital environment, it is clear that the future trajectory of space exploration hinges not solely on innovation itself, but specifically on the capacity for nations to effectively combine government direction with commercial dynamism. The country that strikes this balance will harness the strengths of both its public and private sectors to accelerate advancement, and will be positioned to spearhead humanity’s future in the final frontier.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Space, Innovation, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

174. China and Nicaragua’s Deepening Embrace

Author:: Scott B. MacDonald
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In October 2023, Nicaragua signed an agreement with China’s CAMC Engineering Company (中工国际工程) for the reconstruction, expansion, and upgrading of the Punta Huete International Airport (Yicai, October 18). The company is a subsidiary of the conglomerate China National Machinery Industry Corporation (国际集团), also known as Sinomach (Sinomach, accessed November 15). Local and Chinese officials are touting the $492 million project as part of China’s Bridge and Road Initiative (BRI), reflecting a deepening of Daniel Ortega’s regime’s ties to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (Global Times, October 18). Closer links between Beijing and Managua demonstrate that China’s economic statecraft remains central to its strategy to further penetrate Latin America and the Caribbean, a region of significant geopolitical importance to the United States. The sustainability of China’s economic statecraft, and BRI in particular, have come into question in recent months due to the country’s domestic economic problems. However, the Nicaraguan airport announcement signals that the PRC remains economically active in the region, and its ambitions have not wavered. This is something of which the remaining handful of countries that officially recognize Taiwan are well aware: Beijing’s attention to regional infrastructure continues, if more selectively than before, but only to those countries who have decided to forgo relations with Taiwan. Beijing is further extending its reach into the strategic underbelly of the United States. For Nicaragua, the restoration of diplomatic ties with China serves the geopolitical needs of President Daniel Ortega in distancing his regime from the United States and softening the blow of sanctions (imposed due to fraudulent elections and gross human rights violations), while providing a source of non-Western funds to finance infrastructure projects.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Central America, and Nicaragua

175. The Cross-Strait Intelligence Contest Continues Without Quarter

Author:: Peter Mattis and Zoë Moore
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Last week, the Taiwan High Court found retired air force Colonel Liu Sheng-shu (劉聖恕) and five serving military officers guilty of espionage for China. The court sentenced Colonel Liu and two of his co-conspirators to approximately 20 years in prison, marking some of the harshest sentencing for espionage in recent years (Taipei Times, October 26). Liu’s spy ring is one of at least 11 rings Taiwanese authorities have broken up over the last two years. These Chinese spies targeted Taiwan’s military, civilian government, industry, and the overseas communities of Chinese minorities. In some cases they were able to operate for years. Although it is tempting to read these cases as simply more examples of Beijing’s relentless intelligence operations against Taiwan, these cases and the tradecraft employed suggest some positive developments—or the relative absence of dangerous trends—in the cross-strait intelligence contest. The cost in trust of Chinese intelligence operations, the requirements of deterrence, and the potential costs of a cross-strait conflict combine to suggest that a wider international effort to counter Chinese intelligence operations is warranted.
Topic:: Intelligence, Espionage, Regional Security, and Cross-Strait Relations
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

176. Money Alone Is Not Enough: The Future Of The China-Argentina Relationship

Author:: Román D. Ortiz
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Observers assessed the outcome of the first round of Argentina’s presidential elections held on October 22 as good news for the Chinese government (VOA, October 26). Against the odds, Sergio Massa, the Peronist candidate and current minister of economy, emerged on top, despite his overseeing an annual inflation rate of almost 140 percent. Meanwhile, Javier Milei, the libertarian opposition candidate, took the second place (Yahoo Noticias, October 23). These two politicians will compete for the presidency in the second round of the election scheduled for November 19. At first glance, the victory of Massa should be an encouraging sign for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) since it keeps open the possibility that the China-friendly Peronist party remains in government. However, a more granular analysis suggests two alternative outcomes: First, Milei is likely to be the eventual winner after the second round of voting, which would make the new occupant of the Casa Rosada (the Argentinian presidential palace) a politician who has called the PRC an “assassin” and who plans to freeze relations with Beijing. Second, if Massa wins the presidency, his more moderate Peronism is far from the Third-World foreign policy promoted by the outgoing president, Alberto Fernandez, and his vice-president and former president, Cristina Fernandez. Thus, regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, Beijing’s desires to increase political influence over Buenos Aires, which have focused particularly on its defense policy, are likely to be curtailed. A decrease in political influence with Buenos Aires would deal a serious blow to the Chinese strategy in Latin America, in which Argentina plays a critical role. Argentina is the only large country in the region to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It also exports food, minerals, and oil needed by the Chinese industrial sector. Argentina’s expansive territory represents a natural platform to project power within South America and to the South Atlantic. Buenos Aires’s geopolitics makes it particularly attractive for Beijing, which is exploring opportunities to secure rights for a naval base on the west coast of Africa in order to gain access to the Atlantic. Argentina also forms a key part of PRC efforts to consolidate its hegemony over the Global South. Specifically, the PRC views Argentina as a counterbalance to Brazilian regional hegemony, which motivated China’s interest in Argentina joining the BRICS grouping of countries, against Brazilian opposition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Industry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Argentina, and South America

177. Hong Kong: The Keystone in China’s Economic Statecraft

Author:: Sunny Cheung
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The recent decision by Hong Kong to join China in banning Japanese seafood took many observers by surprise (Reuters, August 23). At first glance, the ban seemed an overblown reaction to Japan’s handling of nuclear wastewater, which many international bodies have deemed safe and compliant with established procedures. And while it is commonly understood that Hong Kong’s government is politically influenced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), many still believe in its economic autonomy. Considering the significant economic reliance of Japan on Hong Kong for its seafood trade, among other sectors, the ban startled numerous stakeholders (Nikkei Asia, August 25). However, the move is less shocking when Hong Kong is viewed as an integral cog in China’s economic statecraft machine. Traditionally, Western governments lack strategic foresight regarding Hong Kong’s long-term position. Often, this oversight stems from an inadequate comprehension of Hong Kong’s pivotal financial role relative to China, as well as an underestimation of its potential as a node for strategic leverage, both for and against China. China’s rise as a global superpower is inextricably linked to its adept use of economic statecraft, a fusion of economic might and strategic prowess. Its pressure on South Korea to stop the production of Taiwanese military submarines provides a recent example (Reuters, October 16). Hong Kong is a pulsating metropolis at the heart of this strategy. It not only exemplifies China’s ambitions but also acts as a crucial conduit for realizing them. There are two key strands of Hong Kong’s centrality to Beijing: its function as an economic lifeline to the global financial system and its role in the clandestine acquisition of technology and intellectual assets for China from overseas. The US and its allies must focus more on Beijing’s overt and covert leveraging of Hong Kong and think harder about what the city’s function should be in an era of de-risking, geoeconomic competition, and weaponized interdependence.
Topic:: Economy, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Statecraft, Regional Politics, and Superpower
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Hong Kong

178. Chinese National Security Laws Hinder Foreign Companies’ Operations in China

Author:: Martin Purbrick
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Investigations into alleged misconduct and criminality by companies are to be expected, and welcomed, in any country. However, the problems facing foreign companies in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) depart from normal legal checks and balances. The lack of separation between the judiciary and the state, and the uncertainty around China’s interpretation of the “rule of law,” is a risk factor for companies doing business there (See: China Brief, September 8). In addition, “state secrets” in the PRC are defined widely in relation to national interest. Consequently, a foreign company can inadvertently breach the law by obtaining and using commercial data. This week the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced updated export controls on advanced computing semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and supercomputing items to the PRC (BIS, October 17). Foreign companies doing business in the PRC are likely to face continued uncertainty as a consequence. The response from the PRC was swift, stating that the United States has constantly “overstretched the concept of national security” and resorted to “unilateral bullying” (China Daily, October 18), which suggests that there is a risk the PRC will take retaliatory measures against foreign companies. Western companies involved in the PRC have long understood that when investing in China they must lose a little bit of money in the short term to win a lot of money in the long term. Doing business in China has always been complex, but with the continued expansive approach to national security, it may now be increasingly untenable (See: China Brief, September 22). After three decades of huge investment in the PRC by international companies, there are growing concerns that the growing emphasis on national security is harming the confidence of overseas investors. As the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China reports, “the politicisation of business, and ambiguous laws and regulations…increases risk for companies operating in Chinas” (EU Chamber, September 20). In recent weeks, this ambiguity has been exacerbated by the growing number of “exit bans,” whereby PRC authorities forbid specific business executives at international companies, such as Kroll and Nomura, from leaving the country (Stratfor, September 29).
Topic:: National Security, Law, and Business
Political Geography:: China and Asia

179. Characterizing China’s Rule of Law

Author:: Ben Lowsen
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chinese President Xi Jinping is working in earnest to develop for China what his government calls “rule by law” (法治). It is sometimes translated into English as “rule of law,” though this is misleading, as Chinese law cannot restrict arbitrary exercise of power at the highest levels: the Party leads everything. As such, an awareness of the term’s precise meaning in the PRC’s legal-political context is crucial for understanding Xi’s intent. The Chinese president has stated that “the rule of law is an important component of the country’s core competitiveness” (People’s Daily, November 22, 2020). In light of this, the recently promulgated Foreign Relations Law (对外关系法), which emphasizes China’s competitiveness, provides an opportunity to interrogate Xi’s conception of the rule of law. [1] The Foreign Relations Law (henceforth, the Law) is timely. The head of the powerful Legislative Affairs Committee said in an interview that out of the PRC’s 297 national laws, 52 were dedicated to foreign relations and 150 more had provisions relating to foreign relations. [2] The Law is therefore an important addition, “consolidating and describing the major policies and principles of China’s foreign affairs,” in the words of current (and former) foreign minister Wang Yi. [3] Moreover, it comes at a moment in which China is at once increasingly emboldened on the international stage, and whose relations with many developed countries are increasingly fraught. Support from abroad could be helpful for China as it attempts to navigate out of a mismanaged end to the Covid-19 pandemic, but there is little to reassure foreign partners that their investments in the country will be protected by its laws.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Governance, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: China and Asia

180. Coalitions of the Week: BRICS, ASEAN, the G20

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Supreme leader Xi Jinping’s failure to attend the G20 summit in New Delhi this weekend (September 9-10) — thus nullifying the possibility of a meeting with top Western leaders including American counterpart President Joe Biden — is symptomatic of the isolation that China is facing on the international stage. Instead, Xi is sending Premier Li Qiang, not only to New Delhi but also to a series of meetings between Western and Asian powerhouses, including between the United States, Japan, and the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Jakarta, Indonesia. ASEAN members seem eager to seize the opportunity to promote free trade and high-tech cooperation with the United States and its Western allies, agreeing this week to inject more funds into projects under the U.S.—ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (InvestASEAN.org, September 7; The White House, September 5). By contrast, China’s recent business ties with ASEAN nations has been dominated by a continuous exodus of multinational corporations moving production bases from China and into countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. Xi’s absence has raised eyebrows, particularly due to the fact that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary has pulled out all the stops when it comes to expanding the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) clout on the global stage, even while ignoring worsening socio-economic conditions at home, such as rising youth unemployment, declining exports and consumer spending, and disappointing new home sales. Deemed a crypto-Maoist by China’s critics, the CCP chief remains convinced that, in the words of both Mao and himself, “the East is rising and the West is declining,” conditions which would allow the PRC to seize the geopolitical high ground given “opportunities that only come once in a century” (Gov.cn, June 23 ; Xinhua, March 23).
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, G20, Geopolitics, ASEAN, and BRICS
Political Geography:: Asia

181. The Chinese Debate on Economic Reform

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: A steady drumbeat of ominous data and troubling commentary on the state of China’s economy has punctuated the summer months. Reports from the commentariat in the anglosphere have provided diagnostic analysis and detailed potential policy solutions that the Chinese government might pursue. However, China’s central decision makers in the Politburo or in the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), are more likely to take their cues from internal advisors and domestic experts within the PRC than from those outside. As such, one fruitful exercise is to take the temperature of voices within the system to determine the extent to which their perceptions align or diverge from those in the West, and to ascertain which views carry weight with the final arbiters of economic policy in Beijing. By doing so, analysts outside of China may better comprehend the future (mis)steps that China will take as it struggles to achieve its aim of “basically realizing socialist modernization.” In July, the Chinese government held several meetings and released documents pertaining the economy. On July 24 the Politburo met to discuss the economy as it usually does this time of year. But on the same day, a 17-point plan was issued by the NDRC, following on from a 31-point plan co-issued by the State Council and the Central Committee ten days prior. These send a clear message about the concern in government over China’s straitened circumstances. Indeed, just this week, the NDRC announced a new “private economy development bureau” to further support private industry (NDRC, September 4). The assessment of the situation is put bluntly in the Politburo readout: “the current economic system is facing new challenges… insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in some enterprise’s operations, multiple risks in key areas, and a complex and severe external environment.”
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:: China and Asia

182. A Belt and Road to Nowhere? Italy on the Frontlines of Europe’s Changing Strategy Toward China

Author:: Andrew R. Novo
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: During her tenure as Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni has been far more active on the international scene than most observers predicted. Within the first ten months of her tenure, she has traveled to capitals across Europe, Asia, and North Africa and has hosted numerous foreign leaders on official visits. In July, Meloni visited Washington, D.C. where she and President Biden affirmed their commitment to deepening collaboration across various areas of shared interests. Meloni’s foreign policy agenda has touched on a range of issues including, but not limited to, European security, migration, energy policy, and international trade. It is on this last issue that Italy’s decision-making might be most impactful. As the Meloni administration reassesses its economic partnerships around the world, Italy’s relations—and by extension the European Union’s (EU) overarching position—towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC) could witness lasting changes. At the heart of the new government’s economic policy lies its choice of whether to withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Meloni—along with many members of her cabinet—have voiced skepticism towards the agreement. As such, everything is on the table in the run-up to the decision at the end of the year.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

183. The No Limits Partnership: PRC Weapons Support for Russia

Author:: Martin Purbrick
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, there is growing concern about the possible involvement of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in supplying Russia with weapons, munitions, and various other technology that could have dual-use applications. Notably, no significant provision of large-scale military hardware from the PRC to Russia is evident, as such equipment would have been easily identified on the battlefield amongst the major equipment losses suffered by Russian forces. There are, however, consistent reports substantiating the claim that Chinese companies are providing military and dual-use equipment to Russia. In the PRC’s political system, this type of transaction would be difficult to conduct without the government’s tacit approval or—at the very least—the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authorities turning a blind eye. In February 2022, following a meeting ahead of the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the dimensions of their two countries’ strategic partnership (Global Times, February 5, 2022). Xi and Putin reiterated that “friendship between the two states has no limits, there are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation, [and the] strengthening of bilateral strategic cooperation is neither aimed against third countries nor affected by the changing international environment and circumstantial changes in third countries” (The Kremlin, February 4, 2022). The closing ceremony for the Beijing Winter Olympics was held on February 20. Four days later, Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, there has been widespread speculation that the PRC leadership knew about the Russian invasion. Additionally, there have been heightened concerns regarding the extent of Chinese support for Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine. In July, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) reported on the “Support Provided by the People’s Republic of China to Russia”, with indications of increased Russian reliance on the PRC (ODNI, July 2023). In 2022 total Russian imports from the PRC increased by 13 percent to $76 billion. In the same year, PRC chip exports to Russia increased by 19 percent. Many of these transactions were facilitated by shell companies in Hong Kong acting as agents of secondary sales from international suppliers via the PRC to Russia. The ODNI report stated that “the PRC is providing some dual-use technology that Moscow’s military uses to continue the war in Ukraine, despite an international cordon of sanctions and export controls. The customs records show PRC state-owned defense companies shipping navigation equipment, jamming technology, and fighter jet parts to sanctioned Russian government-owned defense companies” (ODNI, July 2023). French diplomats further corroborated this report, notifying the public of intelligence indicating that the PRC has been supplying Russia with dual-use technologies as well as non-lethal assistance equipment, such as helmets and body armor (SCMP, July 22). When asked if the PRC is assisting Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, French presidential advisor Emmanuel Bonne responded by saying “there are indications that they are doing things we would prefer them not to do” (SCMP, July 22). The PRC government has emphatically denied allegations that it has provided any weapons or military assistance to Russia. Former PRC Foreign Minister Qin Gang was reported by his own ministry as saying that “China does not sell weapons to parties involved in the Ukraine crisis and prudently handles the export of dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations. Normal exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and Russian enterprises should not be affected” (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs, May 10). The second part of Qin Gang’s statement is significant, as he clearly states that exchanges between Chinese and Russian enterprises—such as commercial ties—are not be impacted by the war in Ukraine. Upon closer examination, his comments appear to suggest that dual-use technologies and equipment could be subject to the PRC government turning a blind eye.
Topic:: Partnerships, Weapons, Drones, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

184. China’s Floods and Party Priorities

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Typhoon Doksuri (杜苏芮) crashed onto the Chinese mainland over Fujian Province on Friday, July 28. From there it pushed northward, where a constellation of meteorological factors led it to slow down over North China, where it unleashed huge volumes of rain over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Over 1600 weather stations in Hebei Province, which surrounds Beijing, recorded rainfall in excess of 250 mm across a 72 hour period, with one station in Xingtai City recording a maximum of over 1003 mm. Beijing saw the highest rainfall since its meteorological records began in 1860 (Xinhua, August 9). The storm was the proximate cause for severe flooding. Already by Tuesday, August 1, state media was reporting that 20 people had been killed in the floods, and 127,000 had already been evacuated from the capital (Global Times, August 1). However, the full-scale of the human impact is unlikely to be clarified by the government any time soon: much information about the floods has already been censored or deleted from China’s internet, and official statistics, when they have been released, are almost certainly underplaying the costs. [1] Perhaps most unhelpfully, the website for China’s Ministry of Water Resources, has been inaccessible all week (水利部, Ministry of Water Resources). Nevertheless, drawing on the information that has been forthcoming from China’s central and regional governments, as well as firsthand accounts posting on Chinese social media and Twitter (X), we can make a preliminary assessment of the potential political and economic consequences of this event.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, and Flood
Political Geography:: China and Asia

185. The Demise of Diplomatic Ambiguity: Parsing South Korea’s Estrangement From China

Author:: Matthew Fulco
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In July, the US Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN) visited South Korea for the first time since 1981. Not one, but two of the 560-foot-long warships—which carried a payload of 24 long-range Trident ballistic missiles—surfaced in South Korean waters (Korea JoongAn Daily, July 24, 2023). From Washington and Seoul’s perspective, the SSBN deployment was a pointed reminder to the mercurial North Korean regime to exercise restraint, but the symbolism of the SSBN visit was not lost on China—Pyongyang’s closest ally. For all its military modernization efforts, Beijing has no effective defense against the Ohio-class sub. That South Korea would support the deployment of the SSBNs to its territory illustrates both its concern about rising North Korean brinkmanship and newfound willingness to risk Beijing’s ire. Indeed, after three decades of stable ties anchored in economic interdependence, major changes are afoot in the South Korea-China relationship. Compared to Japan, which also counts China as its largest trading partner, South Korea has historically been less willing to stand its ground in the face of political pressure from Beijing. On the one hand, Seoul and Beijing have no major territorial disputes, but more importantly, South Korea had previously calculated that its political deference—especially on China’s “core interests” like Taiwan—would encourage Beijing to support denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the Republic of Korea’s (ROK) top foreign policy objective. For many years, South Korea handled Beijing with kid gloves, irrespective of who was in the Blue House. While the left-leaning Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is traditionally more China-friendly, it was the conservative President Park Geun-hye who attended China’s jingoistic September 2015 military parade. After a summit between Xi Jinping and Park, both leaders made a commitment to oppose any unilateral actions that could lead to tension on the Korean Peninsula. The following day, President Park joined Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in China’s military parade. South Korea was the only US ally to attend the event (The Korea Herald, September 3, 2015). Since then, however, the two countries have drifted apart. The catalyst for this change was Seoul’s decision to deploy the THAAD missile defense system in 2017, which China views as a security threat and South Korea deems essential for self-defense. China has repeatedly demanded that South Korea dismantle its THAAD system (Xinhua, September 21, 2017). When those demands failed to bear fruit, it resorted to sanctions against South Korea (The Korea Herald, March 8, 2017). Furthermore, both China’s imposition of a draconian national security law in Hong Kong and its mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic have hurt its reputation in South Korea (The South China Morning Post, October 20, 2020). It is against this backdrop that the ROK’s anti-China sentiment has surged to an all-time high—a development that will inevitably spill over into Seoul’s foreign policy. According to a 2021 survey conducted by SisaIN, for the first time since the ROK and the PRC normalized relations in 1992, South Koreans view China even more negatively than they do Japan (SisaIN, November 29, 2021). China’s ruling Communist Party seems oblivious to the existential threat that South Korea feels in the face of surging missile tests by North Korea. The JoongAng Daily noted in June that it takes just two minutes for a North Korean missile to hit Seoul. According to the editorial, “South Korea is technically still at war with North Korea. The government and people must not forget that” (Yonhap News Agency, June 1, 2023). Concluding that political appeasement and economic engagement with China have failed to pay off, South Korea is taking two significant steps: strengthening its ties with its top security partner, the US, and mending fences with its former rival, Japan. The implications of Seoul’s estrangement from Beijing could have far-reaching implications for geopolitics in the broader Indo Pacific region.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

186. Water Warriors: How China’s River Chiefs Aim to Tackle Water Pollution

Author:: Genevieve Donnellon-May
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In many ways, China’s history is one of water management. As Chinese historiographers often remark, the unique hydrological conditions within China led to the creation of three historical miracles: China, Chinese civilisation, and the Chinese people. In both ancient and modern times, Chinese rulers have acknowledged the importance of water for its role in maintaining social stability as well securing their legitimacy. Beijing’s leaders are acutely aware of the importance of water in maintaining social stability and ensuring the regime’s survival. The government has focused on engineering its way to water security, an approach traceable in part to Mao Zedong’s idea that man must conquer nature. This is reflected in the Chinese state’s construction of large-scale hydroengineering projects, encompassing numerous dams and inter-basin water-transfer projects. More recently, water governance was explicitly tied to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “ecological civilization” (生态文明) concept (China Brief, June 23) and his published book titled “The In-depth Learning and Implementation of Xi Jinping’s Important Discourse on Water Governance” (People’s Daily, July 19). In May, China announced new plans to improve water quality. According to the “Guideline on Water Ecology and Environmental Protection in Major River Basins”, by 2025 China’s water governance aims to accomplish two main objectives: first, eliminate surface water below Grade V quality, and second, raise the proportion of “fairly good quality” surface water to 85 percent—an increase of 1.6 percentage points from 2020 (Ministry of Ecology and the Environment, May 5; State Council, May 5). China has a six-tier water quality system, with water below Grade V classified as the worst quality. At Grade III or above, surface water is considered to be of “fairly good quality”. As a core convention of the central government, guidelines on the water management of major river basins are typically issued once every five years. In contrast to older guidelines, the most recent guidelines explicitly specificizes the improvement of surface water quality as an obligatory target and includes projected targets for the conservation of water resources and ecosystems. By 2025, for instance, China has set ambitious plans to recover waters levels in 53 dried-up water bodies and restore native fish species to a stable population in 107 major water bodies. China also aims to create an additional 213 square kilometers of wetlands by 2025.
Topic:: Water, Governance, Pollution, and Rivers
Political Geography:: China and Asia

187. The PRC Eyes Vietnam: Chinese Assessments of Vietnam’s Hedging Strategy

Author:: Nathan Waechter
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In July, the Barbie movie––an ostensibly apolitical and innocuous film––was banned by the Vietnamese Department of Cinema over real-world tensions between Vietnam and China. According to the state film council, the new Barbie movie was barred from the Vietnamese market over its inclusion of a map purportedly showing China’s preferred territorial “Nine-Dash” line in the South China Sea (Vietnam News, July 7). As the head of the national film evaluation council stated, “Vietnam’s stance has been clear. It does not accept movies that are ambiguous in matters related to territorial sovereignty” (Vietnam News, July 7). The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to the incident by asserting that “China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests are solidly grounded in history and law” (Global Times, July 7). Accusing the Vietnamese government of overstating the issue, the Chinese state media outlet Global Times urged all “relevant parties to control domestic hype and nationalist sentiment” (Global Times, July 7). Viewed within a broader context, the Barbie movie incident is only the most recent expression of the historical baggage between Vietnam and China. Many PRC military officials and academics largely perceive Southeast Asia as China’s proverbial “backyard” that should rightfully remain in its sphere of influence. Within Southeast Asia, Vietnam occupies an important position directly on China’s periphery. Publicly, China considers Vietnam’s governing regime to be close “comrades and brothers” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, March 28). However, Vietnam has a long, acrimonious history with China. Vietnam has been invaded by China numerous times and subjugated to Chinese rule and the exaction of tribute for thousands of years. The “Vietnam Military Museum in Hanoi … lists 13 “Vietnamese Resistance Wars Against Invaders,” with the majority fought against the Chinese. To some extent, Vietnam has also benefited from its contact with China. The Chinese written script, ideas of ethics and governance, and even chopsticks were absorbed from China. [1] During America’s war in Vietnam, China provided Vietnam with vast amounts of material support. From 1965-1969, a total of 320,000 Chinese troops covertly served in North Vietnam. [2] Despite this, China invaded Vietnam in 1979 in a war that the PRC refers to as the “Self-defensive counterattack against Vietnam” (对越自卫还击保卫边疆作战) (Baidu Encyclopedia). In more recent years, Vietnam and China have clashed rhetorically over islands in the South China Sea and had a tense standoff over a Chinese oil exploration rig in Vietnamese-claimed waters in 2014 (CSIS, December 23, 2014). With its historical domination by China and its position as a small, weak, and still developing country, Vietnam has pursued a strategy of hedging. Research by Thi Bich Tran and Yoichiro Sato, Le Hong Hiep, and Tuan Uy Tran provide robust definitions of Vietnam’s hedging strategy from Vietnamese and Western perspectives (Contemporary Southeast Asia, December 2013; Asian Politics and Policy, January 2018; Naval Post-Graduate School Monterey, March 1, 2018). However, it is important to understand how China views Vietnam’s strategy as well. Further analysis is needed to examine primary Chinese sources and understand Chinese elite perceptions, their conclusions, and what “countermeasures” they believe China should take against Vietnam’s approach. On balance, while Chinese security analysts have a clear understanding of Vietnam’s hedging strategy, they exhibit a modern version of historical Chinese paternalism towards Vietnam. Many contemporary Chinese analysts believe that Vietnam, as a developing country, will inevitably fall into China’s sphere of influence as it remains dependent on Chinese economic ties for growth. While Vietnam does benefit from its economic relations with China, however, the Chinese analyses fail to fully recognize Hanoi’s fundamental apprehensions and insecurity caused by the historical enmity between the two countries, as well as China’s modern-day rise and its aggressive actions in the South China Sea. To a certain degree, China is guilty of exhibiting a degree of the same imperial hubris towards Vietnam as it has often accused the US of in the latter’s relations with other countries. While PRC strategists appear to have concluded that time is on their side, Beijing’s paternalistic complex may ultimately handicap China’s ability to pull Vietnam closer into its orbit.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Hedging, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Vietnam

188. Illegal Fishing in Southeast Asia: Scope, Dimensions, Impacts, and Multilateral Response

Author:: Peter Chalk
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing (IUUF) has surfaced as an increasingly salient offshore threat in Southeast Asia that is leading to huge losses in government revenue, adversely impacting food security, contributing to widespread environmental damage, destabilizing inter-state relations, and spurring other transnational crimes. It is an enduring challenge that affects much of the region, though it finds particular expression in the South China Sea (SCS), the Gulf of Thailand, and the territorial waters of the Indonesian archipelago. This article will analyze the scope and dimensions of IUUF in Southeast Asia, assessing its primary drivers, levels of activity, and principal impacts. It will also give an overview of the operations of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s distant water fishing (DWF), which several international bodies have decried as not only the single most egregious violator of sovereign fishing rights and laws in the region, but also as a de facto deniable militia that Beijing is using to enforce its self-defined territorial rights in the SCS. Finally, it will look at the “Quad” as a potential multilateral forum for addressing illegal trawling in the wider Indo-Pacific region.
Topic:: Crime, Territorial Disputes, Fishing, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China and Southeast Asia

189. Xi Jinping’s Hidden Goals for the PRC Law on Foreign Relations

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chinese President Xi Jinping has promulgated a new law on foreign affairs to legitimize tough measures that Beijing is taking against the “bullying” of the “hegemonic West.” The statute, “The Law on Foreign Relations of the People’s Republic of China (PRC),” which takes effect on July 1, will also anchor the supreme leader’s long-standing aspiration to build a China-centric global order that will challenge the framework established by the US-led Western Alliance since the end of World War II. The law also codifies the total control that Xi, who is Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary and Chairman of its Central Military Commission (CMC), exercises on all policies regarding diplomacy and national security (People’s Daily, June 30; Xinhua, June 28). The law states that the PRC “stays true to the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable global security, and endeavors to strengthen international security cooperation and its participation in mechanisms of global security governance.” It stresses Beijing’s right to “take corresponding countermeasures and restrictive measures” against acts that violate international law and norms and that “endanger China’s sovereignty, security and development interests.” The official Global Times said the statute was a response to “new challenges in foreign relations, especially when China has been facing frequent external interference in its internal affairs under the western hegemony with unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction” (The Global Times, June 28). The legislation legalizes measures such as counter-sanctions and blacklisting of foreign nationals and institutions in retaliation against similar measures that the US and other Western countries have taken against PRC firms (New York Times Chinese Edition, December 16, 2022).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Law, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: China and Asia

190. China’s Collaboration with the Myanmar Junta: A Case of Strategic Hedging?

Author:: Sudhan Rmachandran
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On June 27, in Kachin State, northern Myanmar, a convoy of vehicles carrying a Chinese delegation, including a consul, came under fire. The convoy was being guarded by Myanmar military and police personnel. While local media blamed the Lisu National Development Party, a military-aligned militia, the Myanmar junta held the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) — an ethnic armed organization (EAO) aligned with the anti-junta resistance— responsible for the attack (The Irrawaddy, June 30). Attacks on Chinese targets have grown in recent months in Myanmar. On May 7, the anti-junta Natogyi Guerrilla Force (NGF) attacked an off-take station in the Mandalay Region’s Natogyi Township due to its China-affiliated oil and gas pipeline. The attack came amid a surge in mass protests on the streets of Yangon, and the townships of Yinmabin, Salingyi and Letpadaung in Sagaing Region. Angry online campaigns criticizing Beijing’s support of “fascist criminals” — referring to the Myanmar generals — gained widespread public backing (Economic Times, May 15). On May 2, the surge in anti-China protests and violence came close on the heels of a meeting in Naypyidaw between Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Myanmar junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Qin is the highest Chinese official to meet Min Aung Hlaing since the 2021 military coup, which overthrew the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government (Frontier Myanmar, May 3). Since the junta’s rise to power, public ire in Myanmar has been directed not only at the military regime but also at China, the junta’s principal foreign backer. In the early days of the coup, crowds gathered outside the Chinese embassy in Yangon to protest against the alleged Chinese role in the insurrection (Times of India, February 14, 2021). Chinese-owned factories in Myanmar were damaged and burned, and Chinese workers were attacked (CGTN, March 14, 2021). With visible collaboration between the PRC and the junta growing, the targeting of Chinese projects and properties in Myanmar has grown in frequency and intensity. To cite one such instance, last April resistance groups fired missiles at factories manufacturing long-range rockets and surface-to-air missiles, specifically when Chinese and Russian military officials were visiting the facilities (Burma News International, April 8). As anti-China sentiment surges in Myanmar, it is likely that resistance groups will continue to deliberately target Chinese interests in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Coup, Strategic Interests, and Junta
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Myanmar

191. PLA Airborne Capabilities and Paratrooper Doctrine for Taiwan

Author:: Daniel Fu
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In the event of a Taiwan contingency, PLA airborne troops are likely to assume a substantial role. Decapitation strike scenarios and the prospects of an airborne invasion are widely discussed by analysts, scholars, and policy practitioners in both the US and Taiwan. Despite PLA ambitions to rapidly expand their airborne capabilities, there are a growing number voices that downplay the threat or likelihood of an airborne assault across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwanese security analysts such as Liu Tai-ying (劉泰英), founder of the Taiwan Research Institute, have stated that “if paratroopers were used, the losses for China would be very high” and minimized their threat by stating that there are few landing spots available to PLA airborne forces (Taipei Times, September 26, 2022). Notably, many of these conclusions revolve around the viewpoint held by a growing number of military experts, who contend that “mass airborne operations are a thing of the past” (Modern War Institute, December 10, 2016). These views, however, fail to consider the robust drive on part of the PLA to improve the combat readiness and capabilities of its airborne troops. They also ignore substantial progress the PLA has already made towards that goal, both in terms of the training and preparation of its paratroopers and in decisive factors such as heavy airlift. In short, documenting the progress of PLA airborne troops’ capabilities may play a crucial role in assessing Chinese deployment strategies during a potential Taiwan invasion scenario.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Military, and Invasion
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

192. The Long Arm of the Law(less): The PRC’s Overseas Police Stations

Author:: Martin Purbrick
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In April, the FBI charged two Chinese-Americans, both U.S. citizens, with conspiring to act as agents of the government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) by establishing an “overseas police station” on behalf of the Fujian Public Security Bureau in New York. The defendants allegedly organized counter-protests against the Falun Gong, harassed a Chinese fugitive to return to the PRC and hassled a pro-democracy activist living in California. On June 6, the UK Government Minister of State for Security, Tom Tugendhat, made a statement with an update on Chinese “Overseas Police Service Stations” reportedly located in Croydon, Glasgow and Hendon (UK Parliament, June 6). He stated that “the Police have visited each of the locations identified by Safeguard Defenders [the NGO that reported the locations], and carefully looked into these allegations to consider whether any laws have been broken and whether any further action should be taken. I can confirm that they have not, to date, identified any evidence of illegal activity on behalf of the Chinese state across these sites.” The reactive approach in the UK is notably different from the US, where proactive intelligence led investigations by the FBI have led to multiple arrests. International concern regarding the extent of law enforcement activity by Chinese agencies outside of their home country jurisdiction has recently increased. Such activity has been reported as “Chinese Overseas Police Service Centers” (Safeguard Defenders, September 2022), “Chinese Assistance Centers” (China Brief, January 5, 2019), joint patrols in Italy with local police, structured training to local police such as in the Solomon Islands, harassment and intimidation of Chinese dissidents, and extra-judicial action to return fugitives from overseas that effectively constitutes extraordinary rendition. These activities are characterized by their diversity and, as a result, should not be considered part of a single strategy. Rather, the multiple purposes served by Chinese police forces’ expanding overseas activities can be better understood by tracing how these efforts have evolved over the past decade.
Topic:: Security, Law Enforcement, Law, and Police
Political Geography:: China and Asia

193. Missile Defense in South Korea: Will President Yoon Heed China’s Concerns?

Author:: Debalina Ghoshal
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Earlier this week, some residents of Seoul, South Korea, received an emergency alert to prepare for a potential evacuation following military reports that North Korea had fired a projectile southward (Yonhap, May 31). The alerts, which stemmed from an errant North Korean satellite launch that sparked grave but fleeting alarm, underscore the Republic of Korea’s (ROK) growing apprehensions regarding the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) ballistic and cruise missile development and testing, coupled with its expanding nuclear arsenal (NK News, January 1). In addition, North Korea’s long-range artillery systems remain a persistent threat, which not only endanger counter-force targets in South Korea, but also threaten counter-value targets, in particular Seoul, the nation’s capital and largest metropolis.
Topic:: Weapons, Missile Defense, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

194. China’s Role in the Modernization of Malawi’s Agriculture Sector

Author:: Raphael Mweninguwe
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: China has assumed a key role in the modernization of Malawi’s agriculture sector, which has made recent progress in enabling smallholder farmers to produce higher crop yields. The introduction of agricultural technologies used in vegetable, fruit, maize and rice production through the China Aid Project for Agricultural Technical Cooperation has not only created employment opportunities for the local population, but has also strengthened the economic situation of small farmers in Malawi. In February, at the opening of a training for senior agricultural workers, the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Malawi pledged increased support for the development of the country’s agricultural sector “under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), and the Global Development Initiative” (Xinhua, February 17). The creation of the FOCAC coincided with the new strategy of the Chinese government in the 2000s, when Beijing sought to utilize development assistance, particularly in the agricultural sector, in order to strengthen overall Sino-African relations. At that time, many African countries were desperately looking for technical assistance in order to achieve a high level of agricultural growth and to solve their persistent food insecurity problems. [1] Malawi is one of the countries on the continent that has suffered longtime food insecurity, where PRC agricultural aid and training has benefited many smallholder farmers, who have expressed their appreciation for the assistance rendered. While some farmers and extension workers express satisfaction with China’s support for Malawi’s agricultural modernization efforts, others are worried about the impacts of climate change, which threaten the full adoption of the technologies offered by the PRC. Already an estimated 3.8 million people, about 20 percent of the country’s population, are facing a food crisis due to drought and floods that hit the country during the last growing season (World Bank, April 7). But China’s technologies aim to mitigate climate change impacts through simple, low-cost, and innovative farming technologies, such as furrow and bucket irrigation.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Modernization
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Malawi

195. Party Ties: Vietnam, Cuba and China’s Relations with Other Marxist-Leninist States

Author:: John S. Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Last month, on the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Vietnam comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership (中越全面战略合作伙伴关系), Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping met with Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) Politburo Member and Head of the Central Committee Organization Commission Truong Thi Mai and asked her to convey his greetings to General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong (People’s Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs [FMPRC], April 26). [1] The visit to Beijing by Mai, who has headed the VCP’s powerful organization commission since 2021 and was appointed to the Secretariat in March, occurred days after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Vietnam (NhanDan, April 15; VN Express, March 6). As the maritime dispute between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea has intensified over the past fifteen years, Washington has deepened its ties with Hanoi based on overlapping geostrategic interests. Nevertheless, the Biden administration’s ability to achieve its goal of upgrading the U.S. relationship with Vietnam to a “strategic partnership” this year to mark the tenth anniversary of the establishment of the U.S.-Vietnam “comprehensive partnership” remains in question (Fulcrum.sg, April 20). Vietnam undoubtedly perceives the PRC’s drive to consolidate control over the South China Sea as its main geopolitical challenge. Moreover, Vietnam’s relationship with its larger northern neighbor is colored by mistrust derived from historical memories of Chinese occupation and a long legacy of conflict, including the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War and the subsequent series of border and naval clashes in the 1980s. However, the VCP, particularly the conservative faction, now views the U.S. as posing its primary ideological threat and is fearful that Washington aims to undermine its grip on power (Nikkei Asia, May 11, 2022). As two scholars at Ho Chi Minh City University of Social Sciences note in a recent analysis, Hanoi’s reluctance to upgrade ties with the U.S. stems not only from fear of angering China but also from concern with “Washington’s excessive focus on press freedom, religious freedom, and human rights as an internal intrusion and potential threat to Vietnam’s political security.” [2] Hence, Beijing is able to arrest Hanoi from drifting towards closer alignment with Washington by leveraging their shared Communist systems and mutual concerns about Western efforts to facilitate the “peaceful evolution” of communist states into liberal democracies. During his meeting with VCP General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong in Beijing last October, Xi spoke to both Party leaderships’ mutual concern with regime security. He stressed that each side “should stay committed to the socialist orientation” and called for increased party-party exchanges to facilitate “mutual learning in party governance and state administration, maintain high-level communication and strategic dialogue between the two militaries, achieve more outcomes in cooperation on law enforcement and security, and safeguard the political security and social stability of respective countries” (FMPRC, October 31). Party-to-party ties are a key element of the PRC’s relationships with the other three states with ruling Communist Parties: Vietnam, Cuba and Laos. [3] As with the CCP, the Vietnamese, Cuban and Laotian Communist Parties have each adapted and modified Marxist-Leninism to suit their national conditions, regional situations and elite political preferences. Despite their considerable differences, these states’ mutual Marxist-Leninist ideological orientations and systems foster shared interests, including maintaining regime security and “stability,” opposing perceived external attempts to define and impose Western conceptions of democracy and human rights, advancing a state-led model of economic development and promoting a more multipolar world.
Topic:: International Relations, Socialism/Marxism, Partnerships, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Vietnam, and Cuba

196. Can the Belt and Road Initiative Succeed in Afghanistan?

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: At a trilateral meeting in Islamabad on May 9, the foreign ministers of China, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan and reaffirmed their support for multilateral infrastructure projects already underway, including the Central Asia-South Asia (CASA) power project and the Trans-Afghan Railways (People’s Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs [FMPRC], May 9). Earlier on January 5, the Taliban regime signed an agreement with the Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company (CAPEIC), a subsidiary of the state-owned China National Petroleum Company (CNPC), for the extraction of oil from the Amu Darya basin, under which China will invest $150 million annually for three years and increase it thereafter to $540 million for the contract’s 25-year duration (Kabul Now, January 5). Then on April 13, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum announced that the Chinese company Gochin had expressed interest in investing $10 billion in Afghanistan’s lithium reserves (Kabul Now, April 13). Meanwhile, China is reported to be in talks with the Taliban regime over renegotiating the terms of a 2008 contract to mine copper from the Mes Aynak reserves in Logar province (The Print, June 8, 2022). The agreements, including plans to extend CPEC—a key leg of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—into Afghanistan, are a significant development. The deal relating to oil extraction in the Amu Darya basin is the Taliban regime’s first major foreign investment deal. However, in the past, major Chinese projects have failed to take off. Will the recent deals remain in limbo as well? China’s growing role in Afghanistan faces formidable challenges.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, and South Asia

197. China’s Emerging Approach to Taiwan: Blockade and Disinformation

Author:: Chihwei Yu
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: It has been suggested that China intends to unify Taiwan through a military operation within the next five years. However, based on the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) actions during the 1945-1949 civil war, military means may not be the most effective way for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to achieve its longstanding goal of unification with Taiwan. Since its inception in 1921, the CCP has relied on producing and disseminating disinformation to advance its policy objectives. This strategy is also frequently employed by China towards Taiwan, with the aim of undermining the morale of Taiwanese society through the spread of certain kinds of false information, for example, by claiming that the U.S. will eventually betray Taiwan. In fact, the CCP’s military tactics during the civil war share some similarities with its current Taiwan policy, particularly with regard to the so-called “Peiping Mode” (北平模式). This approach seeks to achieve its goals through a combination of deterring the opponent through superior force and employing United Front work, including deploying agents and spreading fake news to persuade opponents.
Topic:: Security, Disinformation, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Military, and Blockade
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

198. Taiwan’s Dwindling Diplomatic Allies

Author:: John S. Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Amidst the drama surrounding Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s early April stopover in Southern California, where she met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the subsequent People’s Liberation Army (PLA) maneuvers around Taiwan that followed, it can be easy to forget why the Taiwanese President was transiting the U.S. in the first place. Tsai was returning home after a trip to Taiwan’s two remaining diplomatic allies in Central America, Guatemala and Belize, which was organized around the theme of “Meeting Democratic Partners, Fostering Shared Prosperity” (民主夥伴共榮之旅) (Office of the President, Republic of China [ROC] [Taiwan], March 29). Days prior to Tsai’s arrival in the Western Hemisphere, Honduras, which had maintained official relations with the Republic of China (ROC) for 82 years, established formal ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs [FMPRC], March 26). The move occurred despite U.S. efforts to dissuade Honduras. On March 18, the Biden administration dispatched senior envoy and special adviser for the Americas, former Senator Chris Dodd, who is also well-regarded in Taipei, to Honduras in a last-minute effort to encourage the Xiomara Castro government to change course in derecognizing Taiwan (Taipei Times March 18). Under the government of Xiomara Castro, who took office early last year, Honduras has sought to pit Taipei and Beijing against each other in a bidding war for diplomatic recognition. While China has offered inducements, Taiwan has both rejected and called out the Castro government’s efforts to condition the continuation of the official relationship on major increases in financial assistance. Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina initially denied Taipei’s claims that Honduras had asked Taiwan for $2.5 billion but eventually acknowledged to the media that the Castro government had sought to obtain $2 billion in aid (ROC Ministry of Foreign Affairs [Taiwan MOFA], March 23). However, he also claimed his country “never received a substantive response from the Taiwanese side” (TVBS, March 24). In a notice regarding these revelations and regretting the pending shift in recognition, the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry warned Honduras not to fall prey to China’s “debt trap diplomacy” (Taiwan MOFA, March 23). Upon announcing the termination of relations with Honduras, Tsai cautioned Taiwan’s other diplomatic allies against following the same course, stressing that “we will not engage in a meaningless contest of ‘dollar diplomacy’ with China.” She also criticized the PRC’s efforts to employ “any and all means to suppress Taiwan’s international participation” (Office of the President, Taiwan, March 26). Earlier this week, the Tsai government averted another diplomatic setback with the election of Santiago Pena of the ruling conservative Colorado Party to the presidency in Paraguay. Pena’s opponent, Efrain Alegre, who led a broad center-left coalition, campaigned on switching recognition from the ROC to the PRC in order to facilitate Paraguay’s access to China’s large agricultural import market (Nikkei Asia, April 18). In a response to a congratulatory tweet from President Tsai, Pena stated that “we are going to continue strengthening our historic ties of brotherhood and cooperation between our countries” (Taiwan News, May 2). However, the Tsai administration is hardly free from the challenge of maintaining the ROC’s dwindling network of official relationships. Guatemala, which is Taiwan’s largest diplomatic ally, will go to the polls to elect a new president in late June. President Alejandro Eduardo Giammattei Falla, who has been a staunch supporter of maintaining close ties with the ROC, is constitutionally barred from seeking a second term. According to long-time China-Latin America analyst R. Evan Ellis the prospect of “a victory by either a center-left-oriented candidate more open to working with the PRC such as Sandra Torres, or a right-oriented candidate such as Zury Rios, whose Presidency might deepen policy conflict with the Biden Administration, could present a small but not insignificant risk of Guatemalan diplomatic recognition of the PRC” (CEEP, March 7).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

199. A Preliminary Survey of PRC United Front Activities in South Korea

Author:: Russell Hsiao
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) exercises influence over South Korea in multiple ways. Chinese influence operations against Seoul have been characterized as not subtle and even blatant compared to the more covert and subversive methods employed in other countries (China Brief, December 19, 2014). Indeed, the more overt and aggressive ways in which Beijing exercises influence were on full display when the PRC responded to Seoul’s decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in 2016 with boycotts, military exercises and diplomatic pressure (China Brief, March 31, 2017). Less well known, however, is how China employs other, more subtle means to influence South Korean politics and society. A general presumption exists that influence must be exerted overtly or in forms such as diplomatic protests or through sanctions, yet Beijing’s influence activities also take on a less pronounced and more obscured nature, which is commonly associated with its United Front activities. This article will provide a preliminary assessment of the local Chinese Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification of China (CCPPNR, 韩华中国和平统一促进联合总会) and the web of other United Front organizations that operate in South Korea. [1] This article does not seek to offer an exhaustive examination of these organizations, but to provide a preview of the key United Front apparatuses and their activities in South Korea.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Diaspora, Soft Power, and Influence
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

200. U.S.-China Data War Intensifies as Bilateral Relations Nosedive

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: U.S.-China relations appear headed for further deterioration despite the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) efforts to lure back American multinationals and Beijing’s relatively limited support for Russia in its war with Ukraine. Washington has characterized the “existential competition” with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as an entrenched struggle on all fronts, but the data and information sectors have recently become areas of particularly intense contention. The Xi Jinping leadership has sternly retaliated against purported efforts by the U.S. and its allies to choke off the PRC’s high-tech development pathways. Recent moves targeting American and other foreign firms are also closely linked to General Secretary Xi Jinping’s obsession with cybersecurity and control of data. Last weekend, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), the administrative arm of the policy-setting Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission (CCAC) that Xi chairs, announced an investigation into the operations of leading American memory-chip maker Micron Technology. The CAC cited the need to safeguard the supply chains of Chinese IT and data companies. Regardless, Micron, whose China operations account for 11 percent of worldwide sales, has insisted that it “stands by the security of our products” (Straits Times, April 1; South China Morning Post [SCMP], March 31).
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Cybersecurity, Information Technology, and Data Governance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

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