Content Type: Journal Article / Publication Year: within 3 Years

1801. Welcoming a State That Possesses the Secret of Eternal Youth! A reflection on Bhutan’s UNO Membership

Author:: Sonam Kinga
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:: Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:: On 21 September 1971, Bhutan became the 128th member of the United Nations Organization during its 26th General Assembly. That same day, the Kingdoms of Bahrain and Qatar were also admitted as new members. It was one of the most important days in our journey to achieve international recognition as a sovereign nation. Our membership to this international organization is an enduring legacy of the farsighted leadership and vision of our late King His Majesty Jigme Dorji Wangchuck. In this article, I will recall some important milestones on the political and diplomatic journey towards Bhutan’s UN membership.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Sovereignty, United Nations, and Nation-State
Political Geography:: Bhutan

1802. Evolution of the Meaning of Happiness in Modern Bhutan from 2008 to 2019

Author:: Michael Givel
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:: Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:: Background: This paper will analyse the legal meaning of what constitutes Gross National Happiness (GNH) and happiness in Bhutan from 2008 to 2019. These legal definitions are then linked with whether they reflect balancing traditional cultural values with material needs of happiness through governmental and individual actions to become enlightened. Results: Bhutanese legislative Acts from 2008 to 2019 have adopted and updated happiness requirements in five of nine GNH material domains including health, economic development, cultural resiliency, good governance, and ecological resiliency. One other Act in the area of disaster management has implemented the constitutional happiness provision for security. These Acts and constitutional provisions balance traditional values and material needs of happiness by government requirements and individual actions to become Enlightened. Conclusion: The meaning of happiness in Bhutan while solidly grounded in foundational concepts of GNH and happiness continues to evolve as Bhutan progresses now and into the future.
Topic:: Governance, Culture, Economic Development, Resilience, Ecology, and Gross National Happiness
Political Geography:: Bhutan

1803. Descriptive Analysis of Need Assessment of the Scouting Programmes for Nazhoen and Nachung Scouts in Thimphu District

Author:: Lham Tshering and Sherab Jatsho
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:: Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:: The scouting programme in Bhutan has been implemented as cocurricular activities in a non-formal setting to promote physical, intellectual, social, emotional and spiritual development, and to cultivate citizenship. This study is a need assessment conducted to evaluate the relevance of existing scouting programmes and recommend development of new programmes. We conducted a crosssectional study using stratified random sampling. Data was collected using a leader-assisted structured questionnaire and was analysed using SPSS (Version 23) and MS Excel. Descriptive statistics such as frequency and mean were used to describe the result. A total of 193 respondents (71 Nachung Scouts, 72 Nazhoen Scouts, 30 CBS, and 20 Scout Leaders) participated in the study. Although there was a high level of agreement on the effectiveness of existing scouting programme, the finding shows that there is a need to align programmes towards intellectual development of both Nachung and Nazhoen scouts. Based on the specific item analysis, programmes on developing good personal habits, making sense of the data, applying scout laws and promises, maintaining meaningful relationship with others, being expressive with one’s emotions, and more religious programmes are recommended for both Nachung and Nazhoen scouts. Further, we recommend programmes for Nachung Scouts on the significance and contributions made by monarchs in Bhutan.
Topic:: Health, Culture, and Emotions
Political Geography:: Bhutan

1804. Attitude of Students of Gedu College of Business Studies Towards Reading Dzongkha

Author:: Chencho Wangchuk
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:: Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:: This study examined the attitude of Gedu College of Business Studies towards reading Dzongkha, their reading choice between Dzongkha and English, and attitudinal difference between the two groups. Descriptive analysis of the survey responses found respondents’ attitude positive towards reading Dzongkha. No statistically significant attitudinal difference was observed between the two groups, however. In contrast to their positive attitude towards reading Dzongkha, majority of the respondents’ preferred choice of reading was English owing to reasons such as access to and availability of reading materials, employability, and its widespread usage as a lingua franca. The mismatch observed between attitude and reality implies a need to increase both accessibility and availability of Dzongkha reading resources in school libraries. One way to fulfil them could be reintroduction of teaching subjects such as environmental studies and Bhutan history in Dzongkha. Enforcing a requirement to produce Dzongkha proficiency test results, like the ones in English, for any scholarship and employment purposes could possibly increase usage and assist in promoting Dzongkha as the national language. Otherwise, excessive usage of and reliance on English may result in loss of Bhutan’s ethno-linguistic and socio-cultural attributes which are symbolisms of her sovereignty.
Topic:: Education, Sovereignty, Culture, Language, and Students
Political Geography:: Bhutan

1805. Science, research, and United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540: the need of a “Wiesbaden process” for Academia

Author:: Ignacio Cartagena Núñez
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: The necessary link between export controls/academia/technology transfers has lagged behind in policy agendas: while weapons and dual-use goods are being channeled through very detailed regulations and export control regimes, knowledge transfers within scientific collaborations are subject to disperse and heterogeneous rules. The normative vacuum concerning intangible technology transfers in academia is a clear proliferating risk. History proves that many big proliferation networks have started precisely within peaceful scientific research projects. In this context, dialogue with universities and research centers–on the basis of an increasing awareness of the sensitive nature of research and its proliferating risks- could pave the way for states’ further attention on the matter. This could be achieved through a structured dialogue between public actors –in particular export control authorities- and researchers. In order to preserve scientific freedom, a better understanding of each other’s needs, requirements and concerns should be in the basis of any regulation. This article sustains a three-fold idea: first, basic export controls concepts might not be always suitable for science and research, thus needing a constant adaptation exercise where the active role of researchers and scientists becomes irreplaceable; second: UNSCR 1540 resolution offers a good framework in order to steer cooperation between national regulatory authorities, export control regimes and academia; third, the suggested interaction could take a form similar to the “Wiesbaden process” which has already proven to be a successful platform for interaction between governments and industry representatives. The comprehensive review of UNSCR 1540, expected to take place in 2021, will contribute to shape the nonproliferation agenda for the years to come. It seems a good opportunity for setting up the grounds for this suggested dialogue between public authorities and scientists. This new process could be a tangible achievement of the Comprehensive Review.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Non State Actors, Nonproliferation, and Exports
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1806. La génesis ibérica del moderno poder naval (The Iberian Genesis of Modern Sea Power)

Author:: Manuel Vila González
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: En las postrimerías del siglo XV surgió de la mano de los dos pueblos ibéricos atlánticos una revolucionaria aproximación al uso en beneficio propio del mar, caracterizada por tener que enfrentarse al reto de la navegación oceánica y de la exploración de nuevas tierras, algo jamás siquiera concebido con anterioridad. Como ya había ocurrido en otras etapas históricas con otros protagonistas, la principal motivación para lanzarse al mar fue económica. Sin embargo, la escala geográfica del empeño en esta ocasión dio lugar a una nueva era, caracterizada tanto por un acelerado desarrollo científico como por una globalización del comercio, de la política, de la tecnología y de la cultura (el lenguaje, la educación y el cristianismo). Portugal conquistó los océanos con el ánimo de establecer una red de enclaves comerciales, creando el molde de lo que desde entonces se ha considerado el lógico proceder de las potencias marítimas, empeñadas en moverse con libertad por los mares que unen las colonias con la metrópoli. De esa guisa, lo que desde hace apenas poco más de un siglo se denomina poder naval no era sino la parte del poder marítimo que se encargaba de proteger el comercio propio de la ambición ajena. España, sin embargo, acometió una epopeya similar con una mentalidad más territorial (y más patrimonial), debido a la cual los mismos océanos pasaron a ser considerados parte integrante de las posesiones monárquicas como vínculo que unía las distintas partes del reino. Esa asunción engendró un concepto nuevo de poder naval, por el que en tiempo de paz complementaba al poder marítimo, que se convertía en tributario del primero en caso de conflicto bélico. Lo que los tratadistas clásicos anglosajones (Alfred T. Mahan y Julian S. Corbett, en particular) describieron como poder marítimo y naval al estudiar la historia basándose en fuentes documentales británicas no es más que la trasposición de los principios que rigieron la constitución del Portugal renacentista en una talasocracia de ámbito planetario. El caso español es mucho más complejo, pues no solo fue igualmente ignorado en los estudios histórico-estratégicos tardo-decimonónicos y posteriores (no solo anglosajones, lo que es aún más inexplicable), sino que se mantiene en la bruma de lo inexplorado al no haber tenido continuidad histórica reconocida, lo que ha contribuido a impedir una comprensión adecuada de la dimensión histórica del éxito (por su resiliencia, durabilidad, prosperidad…) del “imperio” de la Monarquía Hispánica.
Topic:: Navy, History, Maritime, and Seapower
Political Geography:: Europe, Spain, and Portugal

1807. Entre políticos y criminales: corrupción política en Colombia 2013-2018 (Between Politicians and Criminals: Political Corruption in Colombia 2013-2018)

Author:: Pedro Piedrahita Bustamante
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La corrupción es un delito que genera afectaciones políticas, específicamente a la construcción del Estado y la democracia. Es decir, restringe las habilidades de las instituciones para lograr el objetivo de promover el bienestar general a través de la creación de poderes secretos que entorpecen la idea de la democracia como poder público que se realiza ante el público. Así, la corrupción política crea un poder secreto, controlado por funcionarios públicos y políticos profesionales que favorecen diversas redes criminales asociadas a otros delitos y afectan las instituciones y el principio de publicidad en la democracia. El objetivo de la investigación es analizar la corrupción política en Colombia entre 2013 y 2018 desde la perspectiva del Crimen Organizado Transnacional (COT). Para esto se considera que para abordar la corrupción política como delito transnacional es necesario superar el fenómeno de narcotización del delito y reconocer que la corrupción política es también un delito relevante, que funciona en red y que se asocia con otras dinámicas criminales para buscar beneficios económicos del Estado o afectarlo. El enfoque metodológico fue cualitativo y se utilizó el método fenomenológico-hermenéutico en el análisis de la información histórica recopilada desde el siglo XVI que sirvió de contexto para establecer la relación de la corrupción con otros delitos en el país y de los diferentes casos de corrupción analizados en el período de estudio. Se aclara que solo se tienen en cuenta aquellos casos que se ajustan al análisis de corrupción transnacional por los vínculos con otras redes. Se evidencia que entre 2013 y 2018 hubo casos de corrupción política con nexos criminales asociados al narcotráfico, el lavado de activos, la prostitución, entre otros. No obstante, varios de estos hechos no parecen tener la misma relevancia informativa que los típicos casos de soborno, financiación ilegal de campañas o carteles de contratación. Esto se entiende como una oportunidad para seguir profundizando en este tipo de investigaciones.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Crime, Politics, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Global Focus

1808. Inteligencia para la Seguridad Pública en las Entidades Federativas de México (Intelligence for Public Security in Mexican States)

Author:: Juan Carlos Montero Bagatella
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La seguridad pública en México continúa siendo uno de los problemas más importantes. La inseguridad, expresada en estadísticas sobre incidencia delictiva y encuestas sobre percepción de inseguridad, no se ha logrado reducir. Ante dicho escenario, el artículo expone la complejidad de la seguridad pública, reconociéndola como una materia que trasciende las atribuciones de distintas dependencias y órdenes de gobierno. La investigación se enfoca en el papel de la inteligencia estratégica en las entidades federativas, reconociéndola como instrumento para la toma de decisiones. Para ello, el trabajo comienza por exponer la complejidad de la seguridad pública de acuerdo con el marco legal; en segundo lugar, se expone la utilidad de la inteligencia y de la inteligencia estratégica para la seguridad pública; en tercer lugar, se expone la investigación realizada en las 32 entidades federativas para identificar sus capacidades para generar y compartir inteligencia para la seguridad pública. La investigación expone la falta de mecanismos para generar y compartir inteligencia al interior de las entidades federativas y entre órdenes de gobierno, así como una visión restringida de la inteligencia orientada hacia la función policial, excluyendo elementos como la prevención de la violencia y el delito o la reinserción social.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, and Police
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

1809. La captura del Estado peruano por el narcotráfico: el caso de los “cuello blanco del puerto” (The Capture of the Peruvian State by Drug Trafficking: the Case of «the White Collars of the Port»)

Author:: Laura Zúñiga Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Desde los años ochenta el Perú es una pieza clave en el escenario internacional del tráfico de drogas. Segundo productor de cocaína del mundo y uno de los países donde se cultiva el principal insumo, la hoja de coca, el puerto de El Callao, siendo uno de los principales puertos de América Latina por su volumen, se presume que es desde donde salen importantes cargas de esa droga. La interceptación de las comunicaciones en 2018 para investigar el crimen organizado violento que se desarrollaba en esa Provincia, desveló una red de jueces, fiscales, congresistas, empresarios, que colaboraban con los narcotraficantes favoreciéndoles con la impunidad. No es el primer intento de captura del Estado peruano por el narcotráfico. En la década de los noventa, el gobierno de Fujimori-Montesinos, utilizó el dinero del narcotráfico –entre otros- para sobornar a las más altas autoridades del país: jefes militares, Corte Suprema, Fiscal de la Nación, medios de comunicación, empresarios, todos afines al gobierno. Los “narcoindultos” del segundo gobierno de Alan García son otro síntoma de la gravedad de la colaboración de autoridades de las más altas esferas del Estado con los poderosos narcotraficantes. Se pone en evidencia la “doble moral” de la Política Criminal peruana contra el tráfico internacional de drogas, fuerte para los débiles y débil para los fuertes: penas altas para los pequeños traficantes e impunidad para los que se encuentran en el vértice de las organizaciones criminales. Además, resulta preocupante la enorme capacidad corruptora del dinero proveniente del narcotráfico (blanqueo de dinero) para capturar miembros de los poderes del Estado: Ejecutivo, Legislativo y Judicial. El caso “cuellos blanco del puerto” es una muestra empírica de la intersección de la corrupción judicial –y sus adláteres- dentro del Estado peruano y las organizaciones del crimen organizado. Para conjurar estas alianzas, es preciso poner el acento en la punición de los delincuentes de cuello blanco del narcotráfico y sus colaboradores: abogados, jueces, fiscales, etc., que utilizan su profesión como tapadera para enriquecerse personalmente, en desmedro del bien común.
Topic:: Corruption, Trafficking, Financial Crimes, Impunity, Drugs, Judiciary, and White Collar Crime
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

1810. Western DAESH Women: Ideology, Profile and Motivation

Author:: Juan Carlos Antunez Moreno
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: The DAESH has been particularly successful in recruiting Western women. There are differences in their profile and motivation with their male counterparts. The DAESH offered an alternative to Western secularist feminism, substituting salvation for emancipation (empowerment without gender equality). DAESH´s Western women played different roles. They were wives of jihadists, mothers and educators of the next generation, recruiters and fundraisers for the organisation and workers in the segregated institutions of the Caliphate. They were also involved in violent actions when the time came, depending on the needs of the organisation. The analysis on DAESH Western women is often influenced by prejudices, stereotypes, and gender biases. Counterterrorism efforts need for the integration of the gender perspectives and needs for more women to detect radicalization as well as in prevention, de-radicalisation, and reintegration processes.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Women, Radicalization, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

1811. Pacifying Police Units and private interests in Brazil

Author:: Mayane Dore, Gabriel Bayarri, and Daniel Marías
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: This article analyzes a concrete policy in the framework of Brazilian Public Security: the Pacifying Police Units (UPPs). It describes this policy and justifies, through an ethnographic case study, how the so-called “pacification of the favelas” articulates a logic of neoliberal urbanism and police infrastructure, understanding the residents of the favelas as potential consumers of their services. The article contextualizes the UPPs model as a paradigmatic case of public security in Latin America in which the discourse of violence/pacification is the main catalyst for private investments. More specifically, the article demonstrates how private companies resort to proximity conflicts mediation as a way of avoiding the judicialization of conflicts with the residents after the “Pacification”. With this case, we expect to illustrate the patrimonialism and clientelism that shapes the Brazilian State and its ambiguous relationships between private and public interests.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Neoliberalism, Violence, Urban, Police, and Patrimonialism
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

1812. Pruebas de ingreso como predictores del rendimiento académico en los aspirantes a soldados del Ejército (Entrance Tests as Predictors of Academic Performance in Army Soldier Applicants)

Author:: Germán Geovanny Muñoz Gualán and Efrain Eduardo Zambrano Rosales
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El rendimiento académico del aspirante a soldado es el conjunto de indicadores de materias académicas, preparación física y actitud militar que presenta dentro del instituto de formación militar, puesto que el producto que se pretende entregar al Ejército y la sociedad, es un individuo disciplinado y preparado académica, militar y físicamente, acorde a los estándares establecidos en el Modelo de Educación Militar de Fuerzas Armadas y el plan de carrera en ciencias militares de la Universidad de Fuerzas Armadas – ESPE. Además, es necesario complementar esta formación al inculcar la convicción de hacer una carrera militar profesional y ética. Es así, que el objetivo planteado fue establecer los resultados de las pruebas de ingreso que predicen el rendimiento académico de los aspirantes a soldados de segundo año militar, promoción 2018-2020, de la Escuela de Formación de Soldados del Ejército Ecuatoriano “Vencedores del Cenepa”. Por lo cual, esta investigación presenta un enfoque cuantitativo, con diseño no experimental, de tipo transversal y un alcance correlacional. Se utilizó los promedios de las pruebas de ingreso y rendimiento académico por períodos académicos y corte anual de cada aspirante a soldado, del archivo y base de datos de la Escuela de Formación de Soldados “Vencedores del Cenepa”, para su tabulación en una matriz de Excel prediseñada y el posterior análisis estadístico en el programa SPSS. De modo que se observa una correlación significativa moderada, entre las pruebas académicas y físicas de ingreso con el rendimiento académico, una correlación baja con la actitud militar de los aspirantes a soldados y la no existencia de correlación con la deserción estudiantil. Además, las pruebas de ingreso que predicen de forma moderada el rendimiento académico y de forma baja la actitud militar de los aspirantes a soldados son las pruebas académicas y físicas de ingreso.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Army, and Academic Performance
Political Geography:: South America and Global Focus

1813. De la fragmentación de las estructuras criminales a una proto-mafia: un análisis del Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) en Sudamérica (From the Fragmentation of Criminal Structures to a Proto-Mafia: An Analysis of the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) in South America)

Author:: Carolina Sampó and Marcos Alan Ferreira
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Este artículo examina cómo el Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) se estructura como un modelo particular de organización criminal en Sudamérica, entre lo que podría considerarse un cartel de tercera generación y una proto-mafia. Tras el fin de los grandes carteles colombianos, las organizaciones criminales debieron modificar la forma en la que se estructuraban. Estos cambios, se tradujeron en una marcada fragmentación que generó una multiplicidad de organizaciones pequeñas en Sudamérica que lograron ingresar al mercado del tráfico de droga, impulsadas por la “democratización” de la cocaína. Sin embargo, en la última década en Brasil se ha visto el proceso contrario. Mientras que en Latinoamérica se pasó de la concentración a la fragmentación – de la existencia de los carteles a la proliferación de un gran número de estructuras criminales pequeñas-, en Brasil, el PCC ha dejado de estar fragmentado para concentrarse y multiplicar su poder, a partir de su presencia y fortaleza en todo el territorio nacional, pero también gracias a su transnacionalización hacia países productores de drogas como Paraguay, Bolivia y Perú. Cabe preguntarnos entonces si estamos frente al surgimiento de una nueva generación de estructuras criminales, que se auto-perciben como empresas transnacionales y que adoptan una forma distinta a la de los carteles tradicionales, mucho más flexible y capaz de adaptarse frente al cambio, lo que las vuelve similar a una mafia, aunque no se han consolidado como tales aún.
Topic:: Narcotics Trafficking, Organized Crime, and Cartels
Political Geography:: South America, Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia

1814. Brasil nuclear: dos interpretaciones opuestas sobre la orientación de su programa atómico (Nuclear Brazil: Two Opposed Interpretations about the Orientation of its Atomic Program)

Author:: Juan Francisco Morales Giraldo
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Al analizar el programa nuclear de Brasil desde dos enfoques teóricos distintos, su orientación y propósitos presentan también importantes diferencias. Las perspectivas más optimistas, de corte liberal, enfatizan que la política exterior de un país debería juzgarse desde aspectos favorables a los valores democráticos, el respeto por las normas internacionales y la autoevaluación de la legitimidad frente al escrutinio de la opinión pública. Pero al contrario de enfoques que se sostienen en argumentos normativos, una perspectiva basada en una política de poder incidiría en aspectos menos idealistas: la reconfiguración de la jerarquía del poder internacional y las aspiraciones de una potencia global emergente como motivaciones subyacentes para los desarrollos técnicos del programa atómico. Este trabajo sopesa la relativa utilidad de ambas perspectivas, enfocándose en situaciones, desarrollos y discursos del pasado reciente que permiten inferir la orientación política el programa nuclear del Brasil. El estudio procede contrastando las evidencias recogidas con elementos teóricos asociados a cada perspectiva. En una primera parte, se compara la política exterior del Brasil respecto al régimen de no proliferación con lo que las tesis liberales plantean acerca de la conducta estatal. En ese sentido, tendrían especial importancia explicativa el peso normativo de las instituciones internacionales, la democracia interna y la legitimidad que otorga el apego a estos principios. En el segundo apartado se adopta una perspectiva opuesta: las tesis liberales respecto a la problemática del programa nuclear del Brasil son vistas de manera crítica según una interpretación de su orientación basada en una política revisionista y pragmática en consonancia con objetivos mayores de estatus internacional y relaciones de poder con las grandes potencias. La evidencia más importante, la ambigüedad de un programa nuclear pacífico con fines militares, sugeriría que es la segunda perspectiva la que posee mayor capacidad explicativa de los propósitos del Brasil en esta materia. Las conclusiones del estudio se enfocan en tres distinciones esenciales entre ambos enfoques que responden a las interrogantes planteadas: la ausencia de un programa de armas nucleares en contraste con la militarización de la tecnología nuclear y sus aplicaciones; el apego a la institucionalidad internacional en contraste con el pragmatismo y la selectividad en el cumplimiento de ciertos principios; y, finalmente, las fronteras conceptuales poco claras que quedan expuestas por el programa nuclear del Brasil.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Science and Technology, Nonproliferation, Realism, and Liberalism
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

1815. El islam en Rusia: desafíos a la seguridad y respuestas estratégicas (Islam in Russia: Security Challenges and Strategic Responses)

Author:: María José Pérez del Pozo
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El islam forma parte de la historia y de la cultura rusas desde el siglo VII, colaborando activamente en el proceso de construcción del Estado, desarrollando relaciones con otros grupos sociales, con los que ha compartido espacios, historia y políticas de asimilación. Sin embargo, la comunidad musulmana ha tenido un papel asimétrico frente a otros grupos étnicos y culturales del Estado, ocupando, durante largos periodos históricos, una posición periférica en asuntos políticos, militares y económicos. A lo largo de los años 90, la religión se convirtió en un elemento de reivindicación nacionalista contra el poder federal, incentivado por la entrada de un islam transnacional radical importado de los países de Oriente Medio de predominio sunita. Las dos guerras chechenas y la posterior gestión de la zona por parte de Moscú han favorecido la aplicación de un nuevo esquema de análisis basado en la etnicidad-seguridad, que generaliza una interpretación negativa del islam en Rusia. La división de las instituciones religiosas musulmanas tampoco ha facilitado la interlocución interétnica ni la relación con el Kremlin. El estudio de las estrategias rusas frente al desafío del islam se ha orientado tradicionalmente al análisis de la dimensión de seguridad, enfocándose en las respuestas militares de los órganos de seguridad del Estado ruso, ya que, la propia disfuncionalidad del sistema político y la ausencia de políticas basadas en al respeto a los derechos individuales ha impedido la aparición de otras iniciativas que consideren la convivencia interétnica e interreligiosa en un Estado declarado laico. Sin embargo, podemos estudiar también las iniciativas rusas aplicando el enfoque del estudio de la política exterior de los Estados para analizar la utilización de la diversidad religiosa en la obtención de determinados objetivos de política exterior. En este sentido, el trabajo aborda la función de los grupos militares procedentes del Cáucaso, integrados en las fuerzas federales rusas, dentro del conflicto sirio. Finalmente, los programas vinculados a la Prevención del Extremismo Violento (PEV) en el Cáucaso Norte, con sus limitaciones, muestran también un cierto cambio en la implementación y gestión de nuevos métodos para frenar la insurgencia regional.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Islam, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and North Caucasus

1816. La brecha de ciberseguridad en América Latina frente al contexto global de ciberamenazas (The Cyber Security Gap in Latin America Against the Global Context of Cyber Threats)

Author:: Juan Manuel Aguilar Antonio
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La presente investigación parte de la hipótesis de que los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe están rezagados en la construcción de ciber capacidades de defensa para enfrentar el contexto actual e internacional de ciber amenazas, respecto a los países miembros de la Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte (OTAN), tanto en el plano de organización, como en el individual. Para probar este enunciado el texto se divide en seis secciones. En la primera se presenta el entorno global amenazas provenientes de ciberespacio, las pérdidas económicas que sufren gobiernos y empresas según informes de firmas de seguridad informática como Kaspersky, Microsoft, Verizon e International Business Machines Corporation (IBM). En la segunda parte, se aborda el proceso de securitización del internet, la inmersión de la ciberseguridad en los estudios de seguridad nacional, así como la definición de ciber capacidades y delimitación de amenazas al Estado-Nación desde el ciberespacio. En la tercera se aborda la trayectoria de la OTAN como organización en el desarrollo ciber capacidades en los últimos veinte años. En la cuarta parte, se analiza desde el nivel individual un conjunto de Estrategias Nacionales de Ciberseguridad (ENCS) de los países y aliados de la OTAN, de las cuales se extraen sus principales elementos y se esquematiza su anatomía general. En la sexta parte, se presenta una aproximación a diferentes entornos regionales o globales de ciberseguridad con base a mediciones del Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI), de la Unión Internacional de Telecomunicaciones (ITU por sus siglas en inglés), y el National Cyber Security Index (NSCI) de la E-Governance Academy de Estonia. En la quinta sección se presenta el contexto de la ciberseguridad en América Latina y el Caribe, según estudios realizados por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) y la Organización de los Estados Americanos (OEA), así como firmas privadas de ciberseguridad. En la sexta, se presenta de manera breve dos estudios de caso de México, del bienio 2019-2020, que representan la falta de madurez de su ENCS y desarrollo de ciber capacidades, aspecto que comparte con la mayoría de los países de América Latina y el Caribe. Por último, se presentan unas breves conclusiones sobre los aspectos a fortalecer por la región.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:: Latin America

1817. Migraciones, deportaciones, colonización y geopolítica durante las guerras dácicas de Trajano (101-106 d.C.) (Migrations, Deportations, Colonization and Geopolitics during Trajan’s Dacian Wars (101 -106 AD))

Author:: David Soria Molina
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Las guerras dácicas de Trajano (101-106 d.C.) implicaron múltiples movimientos de población por parte de todos los contendientes, que afectaron al desarrollo y desenlace del conflicto, condicionando muchas de las decisiones de las potencias implicadas. Del mismo modo, la intensidad y escala de la conflagración, que se extendió a lo largo y ancho de la Europa danubiana y póntica, se saldó con cuantiosas pérdidas de población, consecuencia directa e indirecta de los enfrentamientos armados. Finalmente, el proceso de consolidación del poder romano en Dacia tras la conquista y sus particularidades supusieron la deportación y desplazamiento intencional de grupos de población nativa, migraciones hacia zonas libres de la ocupación romana y otros problemas de orden sociopolítico y demográfico resueltos por el Imperio romano mediante una colonización planificada del nuevo territorio y toda una serie de arreglos diplomáticos concluidos en 119 d.C. En este artículo abordamos, a través de las fuentes literarias, epigráficas, numismáticas, arqueológicas e iconográficas disponibles, estos procesos demográficos, las realidades derivadas de los mismos y sus consecuencias en el marco de las guerras dácicas de Trajano, procesos que condicionaron la situación geopolítica de la región y, por lo tanto, la futura configuración de la Europa del Este.
Topic:: Migration, War, History, Geopolitics, and Deportation
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

1818. How Can We Increase Turnout among Low Propensity Voters?

Author:: Seth Hill, Thad Kousser, Gabriel Lenz, Mackenzie Lockhart, and Elizabeth Mitchell
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: How can we increase voter turnout among low-propensity voters? Researchers and practitioners have found interventions that increase voter turnout, but these interventions tend to increase turnout among individuals already likely to vote, and therefore appear to exacerbate existing inequalities in participation. This project developed and tested an intervention designed to encourage people with a lower prior likelihood of voting into the electorate. First, in summer 2018, we surveyed a diverse sample of voting and non-voting Californians about their political attitudes. We concluded that feeling inadequately informed and feeling inefficacious may contribute to low turnout rates. Based on the results of the survey, we designed messages to address these feelings and tested them in an experiment to increase turnout in two special elections in June 2019 by targeting these sentiments among people with infrequent prior turnout records. Letters with information and encouragement about the voting process did not increase turnout in the subsequent election. We conclude that further work is needed to identify interventions that successfully increase turnout among low-propensity voters.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1819. How Did the Voter’s Choice Act Affect Turnout in 2018?

Author:: Eric McGhee, Mindy Romero, and Laura Daly
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In its first year of implementation, did the Voter’s Choice Act (VCA) change turnout patterns in the counties – Madera, Napa, Nevada, Sacramento, and San Mateo – that adopted this new reform? How did this reform affect the turnout of groups of Californians – young voters, Latinos, and Asian Americans– who have often participated in elections at lower rates than others? We address these questions by gathering data on turnout rates, voter demographics, and electoral competition from 2002 through the primary and general elections of 2018, comparing trends in the adopting counties to the rest of the state.
Topic:: Demographics, Reform, Elections, Diversity, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1820. How Do Californians Want to Cast their Ballots During the COVID-19 Crisis?

Author:: Thad Kousser, Mindy Romero, Mackenzie Lockhart, Seth Hill, and Jennifer Merolla
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In April 2020, how did Californians of all demographic groups want to cast their ballots during the COVID-19 pandemic, what changes to the electoral process would they support during this critical moment, and how would reforms made in 2020 reshape our state’s electorate in the future? We address these questions by analyzing a statewide survey of a diverse sample of 12,276 eligible voters (adult citizens) conducted April 8-22, 2020. As a whole, California’s eligible voters plan to vote by mail more than ever before in November 2020. Voting by mail is the method that gives them the most confidence in the integrity of election results, and they are strongly supportive of policies that expand access to voting by mail. The level of support for voting by mail differs across California’s diverse racial and ethnic groups. Consistent with past studies, our survey found that Latino and African-American eligible voters are generally less likely to prefer this method of voting than non-Latino whites and Asian Americans. It will be important to consider the potentially disparate impacts that any election administration changes could bring and to conduct broad outreach efforts. When presented with scientific projections predicting a fall peak in the impact of COVID-19, eligible voters were even more likely to prefer voting by mail and to express concerns about waiting in line or working at a polling place that did not adhere to social distancing protocols. Specifying a set of social distancing guidelines for in-perso
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Pandemic, Participation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1821. Messaging Matters: How Information about Underrepresentation Affects the Political Participation of Racial and Ethnic Groups in California

Author:: Cheryl Boudreau, Jennifer Merolla, and Sono Shah
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Can racial and ethnic minorities be mobilized to participate in politics at greater rates? We theorize that mobilization messages providing information about a group’s underrepresentation in government may increase participation among racial/ethnic minorities. However, responsiveness to such messages should vary depending on individuals’ prior awareness of their group’s underrepresentation. Using a two-wave panel survey that randomly assigned different get out the vote messages, we find that messages highlighting a racial/ethnic group’s underrepresentation in government do not increase Latinos’, Blacks’, or Asians’ likelihood of voting. We also find that such messages can decrease other forms of political participation among Asians and Latinos who were previously unaware of their group’s underrepresentation. These findings indicate that information about underrepresentation can actually demobilize certain segments of the electorate. Thus, practical efforts to boost participation among underrepresented groups should either communicate information about underrepresentation in other ways or provide a different type of message altogether.
Topic:: Minorities, Elections, Diversity, Voting, Participation, Mobilization, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1822. The Pandemic in Prison: Implications for California Politics and Policymaking

Author:: Amy E. Lerman and Jessie Harney
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: The effects of COVID-19 across California have been devastating, but the impact of the virus has been particularly acute in the state’s overcrowded prisons and jails. The epidemic has clear implications for incarcerated individuals and their families, but also for the tens of thousands of Californians employed in the state’s prison system. These workers represent a powerful force in state politics (Myers, 2018; Williams et al., 2020).
Topic:: Labor Issues, Prisons/Penal Systems, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1823. Early in the Pandemic, There Was No Partisan Divide over Preferences for Voting by Mail in the 2020 Election

Author:: Thad Kousser, Mindy Romero, Mackenzie Lockhart, Seth Hill, and Jennifer Merolla
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In April, 2020, was there a partisan divide between eligible voters from California’s major parties over whether they preferred to vote in person or through mail ballots in the November election, and what percentage of likely voters from each party said they would not vote if the election were held exclusively through the mail? Did partisans divide over policy proposals about how to conduct this election? We investigate these questions by analyzing a statewide survey of a diverse sample of 12,276 eligible voters conducted April 8-22, 2020. When we asked eligible voters how they wanted to cast their ballots this November, we found no significant divide between the Republican and Democratic eligible voters. More than half of eligible voters in both parties prefer to cast a ballot by mail, with nearly another two in ten voters preferring to drop off a ballot that has been sent to them in the mail. Gaps of eight to twelve percentage points emerge between partisans over support for policies that advance voting by mail, though there is still a strong consensus supporting these changes among all partisan affiliations.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Public Health, Pandemic, Participation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1824. Will Concurrent Elections Reshape the Electorate?

Author:: Jonathan Collins, Eddie Lucero, and Jessica Trounstine
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In 2015, Governor Jerry Brown signed the California Voter Participation Rights Act (SB 415) into law. As its title suggests, the bill aimed to increase turnout in local elections by forcing all California jurisdictions to hold elections concurrently with statewide elections (in June or November of even years). Turnout in local elections is significantly lower than national turnout, averaging only 20% by some estimates (Alford and Lee 1968, Wood 2002, Hajnal and Lewis 2003, Caren 2007, Hajnal 2009). Scholars have found that election timing is the most important predictor of differences in aggregate turnout rates across cities (Alford and Lee 1968, Anzia 2014, Anzia 2011, Hajnal and Trounstine 2005). Hajnal and Lewis find that city elections that coincide with presidential elections are associated with a turnout of registered voters 36 percentage points higher than turnout in cities that do not hold elections that coincide with the presidential election (2001, 656). Caren finds that cities holding elections concurrent with the presidential election increase voter turnout by 27% compared to cities that do not (2007, 41). The logic behind SB 415 is that moving local elections to coincide with national elections will improve electoral participation.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1825. China-Russia-Pakistan Strategic Triangle: Imperative Factors

Author:: Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi and Uzma Munshi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China, a rising power and Russia, a great power of the past is currently pursuing the aspiration to regain its lost glory, are at the center stage of Asian geopolitics. Starting from the first decade of twenty first century, the extra tilt of Russia‟s moderate ally India towards the US is ringing alarm bells for China, Russia and Pakistan more or less with an equal spell. Indian tilt towards the US culminating in a nuclear deal between the two in 2008 (Baker, 2008), specifically, post nuclear deal strategic partnership provides the former with a punch to pose a challenge to its two sheer competitors Pakistan and China. In fact, this emerging engagement between Indo-US is based on their shared interest of complicating the security calculations of Pakistan and China. Thus, the strategic partnership between India and the US provides a significant variable to Pakistan to dramatically change the dimensions of its security and strategic relationship with Asian powers such as China and Russia. For Pakistan this partnership will provide it not only an option to maintain balance in the region vis a vis India but it will also provide it with an alternate to the US in the form of realigning its relationship with Russia and China. While shunning off increasing US sway in near abroad is in the interests of both China and Russia, so, this emerging strategic triangle will mutually reciprocate their respective interests. Although, India is obsessed with a desire to become regional hegemon independently pose a significant threat to regional balance and stability in South Asia, its strategic partnership with the US acts moderately as a force multiplier. So, for Pakistan being a major stakeholder in the regional affairs, prudence dictates to cultivate and enhance its strategic relationship with its time tested friend China as well with Russia. The current paper will attempt to access the imperative factors bringing China, Russia and Pakistan closer to form a strategic triangle. It will explore the political, geo-economic and geo-strategic areas of convergence for greater cooperation between this emerging triangle. What are prospects and challenges in the way of development of a strategic triangle between China- Russia and Pakistan that is emerging as a response to a direct threat from Indo-US strategic partnership to gain a hold over regional affairs?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

1826. Decentralization and Social Development: A Study of Local Government System of Pakistan

Author:: Shoukat Ali and Abdul Majid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Decentralization is very important dimension of the modern political system because it applies the core of democracy through local government system (LGS). Every country struggles for social development that includes the standard life of the citizens which is only possible through better delivery system of social services by an efficient local government system. The major concern of the current research is to measure the relationship between “Decentralization” and “Social Development”. The current study is quantitative and descriptive in nature which is based on explanatory research design. The data are gathered through primary and secondary sources. The sample size of primary strand of study consists of 1000 respondents which were selected from the six sampled universities of the Punjab (Pakistan). The questionnaire was employed by the researchers to collect the primary data that are analyzed later by statistical package for social sciences (SPSS). The results of the study found a strong relationship between decentralization and social development. The value of R-Square is .468 that indicates all the included sub- indicators of independent variable have strong and positive relationship with dependent variable.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Local, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1827. Is Corruption Detrimental for Economic Growth? A Panel Data Analysis of Selected South Asian Economies

Author:: Jahanzed Khan, Rana Muhammad Adeel-Farooq, Kashif Akram, and Muhammad Sharif Abbasi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The debate regarding the influence of corruption on economic growth is increasing. Therefore, this study examines the impacts of corruption on economic growth of developing South Asian Economies between 2002-2017 period. The study uses fixed effects, random effects and robust least square estimators for the empirical estimation. The outcomes show that in developing South Asian countries corruption is working like grease and enhancing the economic growth. Nevertheless, the study based on the theoretical and empirical literature recommends these countries to formulate policies to lower corruption as it harms the institutional quality, adversely affects the investment decisions of the firms, system of meritocracy, and is considered globally as a moral decay of the society. These all in turn, in the long run adversely affects the economic growth.
Topic:: Civil Society, Corruption, Economic Growth, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

1828. Afghan Women Education: Bottlenecks & Future

Author:: Muhammad Saleem Mazhar and Naheed S. Goraya
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Afghanistan is a country with strong cultural norms and a male-dominated society, comprising 49% of women population. The plight of Afghan women is embedded in long history of the country. Decades old war has led 90% of Afghan women without education (aged 25). In war- torn countries around the world, thousands of women are deprived of education. The displacement and the predominance of norms or ideologies dampen the very idea of education for women. Most of the schools are far enough and the children, predominately the girls, have no easy access there. Girls do stay at home following the gender norms. However in post 2001, there have been significant developments regarding female education and their participation in public life. The most important contribution was the adoption of National Action Plan for the Women of Afghanistan (NAPWA1), 10 years strategic framework (2010-18). The paper argues that the girls‘ education in Afghanistan requires to be looked through the lens of culture. It will analyze the other barriers to women education and explore the facts how they are unequally treated in terms of access to all levels of education in the country. However, there is a long way to meet the challenges regarding women education. It will conclude with the idea that it is undoubtedly true that countries can develop where there is no gender discrimination with regard to ducation politics and social and economic rebuilding. Only gender-oriented tasks can rule out inequalities in conflict-affected societies and transform them into peaceful societies of respect and equality.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Education, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Women, Feminism, and Equality
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

1829. String of Pearls: Politics of Ports in Indian Ocean

Author:: Khalid Manzoor Butt, Sanwal Hussain Kharl, and Khizar Abbass Bhatti
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Regional security order which is a complex combination of actors and factors is no longer associated exclusively with political and military might. Asia has experienced significant changes in its regional preponderance like economic interdependence and interconnectedness. The phenomenal economic growth of some countries is attributed to its ascendance. The Asian region has become a cauldron of global economic and geopolitical transformation. In this regard, the specter of Maritime Silk Road China with regards to Pakistan Economic Corridor and China Myanmar Economic Corridor are glaring examples enclusively in this region. They have heralded metamorphosis in the pearls of the string by providing an alternate route making Indian Ocean a hub for trans-regional connectivity through multifold alternative routes. History is witnessed for the benefits of certain alteration in the routes such the Panama Canal and Suez Canal. To find such alternation of routes in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has caused a competition between China and India which can have multiple effects.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Peace, Regionalism, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Asia and Indian Ocean

1830. Space Militarization Race among China-Russia and USA: Implications for South Asia

Author:: Fazal Abbas Awan and Umbreen Javaid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The launch of Sputnik demarked the beginning of the space age and also the beginning of the militarization of the outer space. During the Cold War, the two strategic competitors exploited the outer space for their military purposes, which initiated an intense space race, lasted till the end of it. Due to intense competition in space, different satellites for photographic reconnaissance, surveillance, communication and intelligence were launched into the outer space and space became the area of conflict between the arch enemies. The major development in the militarization of space came under the President Reagan‘s period, when Strategic Defence Initiative was announced in 1983. This was the first step towards weaponizing the common heritage of the human being. The power trends in the militarization of outer space have also shown its implication on security of South Asia. China, under the consideration of security dilemma, has contributed its part in the militarization of space. As a result, India in collaboration with U.S is also crawling towards developing its space power, which has serious implications on the security of Pakistan. Therefore, the strategic competition among nations has resulted into their massive investment in the developing their space assets for military purposes and brought a paradigm shift in it. This research paper analyzes that space has become a fourth medium of warfare. The new plans from the major powers to utilize the outer space to dominate and to create their hegemony in the outer space will deteriorate the fragile peace in South Asia, as well as endanger the peace of the world. The design of present research is exploratory and for more empirical analysis, study also based on philosophical assumptions.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Space, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1831. Institutional Failure: A Challenge to Good Governance in Pakistan

Author:: Marium Kamal and Sarfraz Batool
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Good governance is a desirable process as well as end-result of participatory democracy. For the last three decades „good governance‟ is more frequently used in the studies of political science because it is considered that good governance is a key indicat to judge the conducting of public institutions (that how efficiently and effectively they manage public recourses and administer public affairs). The existing literature on this subject matter identifies that good governance leads to sustainable development. According to international financial institution e.g. World Bank, lack of good governance in the third world countries is the main cause of their underdevelopment. Pakistan (one of third world countries) is a federation with diversified ethno-linguistic identities and since its emergence as an independent state; it has been facing the governance related issues seriously. This conceptual and analytical study aims to explain that how the failure and dysfunctionality of public institutions itself disrupt the process of good governance in Pakistan.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Democracy, Institutions, and State Building
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1832. Indo- US Strategic Objectives in Afghanistan: Security Calculus of Pakistan

Author:: Muhammed Tayyab Zia
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Washington and New Delhi have converged interests in Afghanistan. US aspires a greater Indian role in Afghanistan in the wake of its withdrawal from Afghanistan and India, in order to pose itself an international power, seeks in Afghanistan a deeper involvement. Although both of the states, India and the US, have devised a commonality of interests since 9/11, yet since the current US Administration bilateral ties have been intensified to the extent where Pakistan have severe implications. US President Trump‟s verdict of regionalization of Afghan issue has implied concerns for Islamabad. Pakistani authorities relate the terrorist activities in the country, particularly insurgency in Baluchistan with the role of various powers‟ role in Afghanistan. Strategic and security related objectives and concerns would be discussed in this article.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1833. Theory of Separation of Power: Balancing the Civil- Military Relations in Pakistan 2013-2018

Author:: Zahid Mahmood and Muhammad Iqbal Chawla
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: While broadly speaking the framework of separation of power is not fully executed which has caused institutional tangle in the history of Pakistan, however, the main objective of this research paper is to re-investigate the relationship between the civil and military leadership in the period 2013-2018. The elemental premise of this article is that the civilian and military leadership has generally squabbled during the civilian rule. This paper contends that this wrangle has left a majority of people of Pakistan with undelivered promises and their woes have generally multiplied. Generally speaking, perception abounds that form over substance approach proliferates in the present democratic set-up. There is an impression that the military schemes surreptitiously to destabilize the civil governments if the latter does not play to the whims of the former. The relations between the two power-centres embittered during the period 2013-2018 and it is generally believed that such tensions led to events like the dharna (sit – in) by the PTI/PAT, Tehreek-i-Labbayak protests/sit-ins and the disputed election results of 2018. Right or wrong, but there is an impression that military has generally tried to transgress its limits and meddled in the affairs of the civil administration in order to punish the ‘corrupt civilians’ for their corrupt practices. The relationship of civilian and military leadership in this article discusses specifically the instances which created tussles between both the leadership during the 2013-2018 periods. Again, the civilian leadership is facing the charges of corruption and since the matter is sub- judice, this paper constraints from considering these politicians corrupt or innocent but the main argument of the paper is that whether it is direct or indirect military interference the main allegation against the politicians is corruption. Therefore, this paper will try to find the answer to the following queries: what is the conduct of the civil governments how the civilians irritate the military and other institutions why the military takes interest into the civilian matters and why military needs to policing the civil governments and what factors caused the downfall of Mian Nawaz Sharif government. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that the theory of separation of power is not fully implemented in Pakistan which has been causing institutional clash and powerful institutions overpower the weaker and in case of Pakistan’s parliament is the weakest institution. However, this paper will like to recommend to go for the basics of democracy ‘Separation of power’ to ensure continuation and consolidation of democracy.
Topic:: Civil Society, Governance, Political Power Sharing, Military Government, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1834. Religious Tourism and Peace Building: Kartarpur Corridor as a Peace Symbol in India-Pakistan Conflict and Inter-Faith Harmony

Author:: Asma Qadir Hasan and Iram Khalid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Sri Kartarpur Sahib is one of the most sacred religious sites for over twenty-seven million followers of Sikh religion around the world. This religious site known as gurdwara became a part of the premises of the state of Pakistan according to the partition plan in 1947. Sikh pilgrims desiring to visit this sacred place have always found it difficult due to the tensions between the two states of India and Pakistan. Finally, in August 2018, the newly elected Pakistani government under premiership of Mr. Imran Khan announced its intention to build a connecting corridor from Dera Baba Nanak in India to Kartarpur Sahib for the Sikh pilgrims. While it was generally considered a highly positive gesture towards building peace in the region, there was some negative response from the Indian side in particular. This paper discusses brief history of Kartarpur Sahib, the implications of the decision of constructing corridor by the Pakistan government and its importance in building peace between the two states and creating inter-faith harmony within Pakistan. An exploratory, historical and descriptive method has been applied. Besides consulting books and newspaper reports on this issue, two interviews were conducted to analyze contemporary situation. The results show that the move by the Pakistani government can very well be considered a way forward in peace building process and hurdles in implementation of a peace-oriented gesture need to be removed to promote inter-faith and inter-state harmony.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Religion, Bilateral Relations, Tourism, Conflict, Peace, and Symbolism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, India, and Asia

1835. Politics of Nawab of Kalabagh Malik Amir Muhammad Khan (1910-1967)

Author:: Javid Raza Naseem and Abdul Basit Mujahid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Political ideology of Nawab of Kalabagh Malik Amir Muhammad Khan (1910-67) was based on the perception of a highly educated but conservative feudal. He advocated status quo in almost all the matters including foreign relations. He advised Ayub Khan not to switch over to China because it would antagonise U.S.A. He was not so optimist about the solution of Kashmir issue. His pragmatic approach favoured the peaceful method of negotiation instead of confrontation. General perception portrays him as a typical landlord who was averse to education and freedom of press. Evidences from history reveal that there is a partial truth in it. He liked a responsible press which should not be left unbridled. Bengalis of East Pakistan made the bigger chunk of the total population of Pakistan. He, as a non-Bengali of West Pakistan, was apprehensive of their strength in numbers. Anti-One Unit politicians were secessionists in the eyes of Nawab so were dealt severely. He treated his political rivals according to their strength and ambitions. He was suspicious of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto because he (Bhutto) was too ambitious to be trusted. He allegedly victimized Chaudhri Zahoor Elahi because Chaudhri had desired to replace him. Mawlana A. Sattar Niazi, Habibullah Paracha and Pir of Makhad Sharif used to challenge his supremacy in his native area so Nawab had to deal them harshly. It can be derived that his political outlook reflected the mindset of a typical feudal lord.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Political Activism, Elections, Leadership, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1836. Transitionary Aspects and Population Dynamics in Rural Punjab: Demographic and Social Dimensions

Author:: Ayesha Farooq
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This paper discusses the socio-demographics of a village in Punjab named „Mohla‟. Socio- demographic variables include description of age distribution, sex composition, family structure, castes and marital statuses of the people. Description of respondents‟ attributes such as educational and occupational statuses are also inclusive of this study. The researchers used quantitative approach and data collection was done through probability survey to ensure objectivity and reliability of the results. Household Enumeration Forms were used to collect the information regarding age, sex, households and castes. On the other hand, interview schedule was developed to gather information from the respondents. Decade-wise sources of water supply and domestic material possessions are also analyzed. These time series data are indicative of the development that has taken place over the fifty years, this is expected to have influence on the socio- structural changes in the rural community.
Topic:: Civil Society, Gender Issues, Population, Inequality, and Caste
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1837. War on Terror: Repercussions for Pakistan

Author:: Muhammad Shamshad, Amjad Abbas Khan, and Muhammad Hassan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The US-Taliban peace agreement has rekindled hopes for peace in Afghanistan. After fighting for almost two decades, the US has agreed to enter into a peace deal with its one time worst enemy i.e. Taliban. Pakistan has been a facilitator in bringing a peace deal to Afghanistan. Its role has been well recognised by both US and Taliban. Pakistan has long been associated with this issue; first as US partner in the war against Taliban and now as a facilitator to bring US and Taliban to a peace deal. It seems quite pertinent to re-evaluate Pakistan„s role in war against terrorism and its repercussions for Pakistan. The present research has explored the effects that Pakistan has faced after becoming the partner of war on terror initiated by the then American President George Walker Bush in 2001 soon after the incident of 9/11. It has explained how this participation of Pakistan has caused a colossal damage to the social, economic, religious and political domains of Pakistan and how the partnership has tarnished the image of Pakistan in the comity of nations. Additionally, impact of war on terror has been judged through examining the current status of internal and external security threats, soaring poverty, restrained development policies, increased hatred against the Americans and national disintegration. The methods of describing the facts and figures in the existing body of knowledge i.e published books, research articles, newspapers and published theses and then comparing and analysing them on the basis of personal opinion and other data, have been used to conclude the topic.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Taliban, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1838. Creation of New Provinces: It’s Socio-Political Implication for Pakistan

Author:: Chanzeb Awan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The existing political and administrative structure of Pakistan was inherited from British Empire which was crafted keeping in view the population and area of the entire subcontinent; and fundamentally constituted with an objective of retaining foreign control and promote imperialistic interests. Thus demand/ voices for new provinces have sound historic roots and vivid genesis emanating from ethnic and demographic makeup of Pakistan. Successive governments tried to put the country on a smooth track of development but could not achieve political and economic stability. Domination of few ethnic groups, sense of alienation, lack of justice, corruption, un-equitable allocation of development funds and unwieldy federating units in terms of population and area have been the intrinsic factors giving periodic impetus to the demands of new provinces in Pakistan. Each province has its peculiar dynamics; therefore, its historic, demographic and socio-political perspectives have been emphasized in the article to establish linkages with the genesis of demands for creating new provinces. Commonly debated issues are highlighted to explore as to why there is a requirement of creating new provinces in Pakistan. National concerns are also outlined to signify that disparity and discrimination driven movement may not be termed as linguistic or ethnic otherwise anti state notions may get stimulated. Towards the end, socio political implications have been analyzed and few recommendations have been made to address the issue of creating new provinces in Pakistan.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Governance, National & provincial initiatives, and Political System
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1839. BRI & CPEC: Strategic & Economic Depth for Pakistan

Author:: Hafeez Ullah Khan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: CPEC project (China – Pakistan Economic Corridor) being the flagship project of Belt & Road Initiative initially witnessed a planned investment of $ 46.6 billion which Beijing intitated and now it is extended to $62 billion and would be completed in the next few years. CPEC is not only aimed at connecting Kashgar to Gwadar but it is also considered to be the Zipper of Central Asia with South Asia, Moscow and Beijing with the Middle East and Africa. CPEC is specifically envisioned beneficial for economic security for Pakistan in a crucial time when Pakistan is isolated and badly damaged by the War on Terror since September 2001. Islamabad and Beijing have developed strong ties despite their ideological differences. This research work sheds light on the economic cooperation between the two neighboring states i.e. China and Pakistan in the context of Beijing's huge investment in Pakistan. The study analyzes CPEC from political, economic, and social perspectives. The study reveals that CPEC is the venture of economic and strategic depth for Pakistan.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Economic Growth, Economic Development, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1840. Indian Constitutional Rearrangements in Jammu & Kashmir and the Responses of Kashmiri Diaspora

Author:: Lubna Haroon and Nazir Hussain
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: In the aftermath of August 5, 2019, almost the entire population of Indian-held Jammu & Kashmir was placed under stark lockdown with pro-freedom and mainstream politicians arrested. This was to prevent any outbreak in response to the revocation of region‟s special status. There were only two indigenous constituencies left for campaign and raising voices; „Pakistani-administered‟ J&K and Kashmiri diaspora. The diaspora‟s feeling of being backstabbed created a sense of dispossession and alienation. Kashmiri diaspora across the globe mobilised on various fronts ranging from diplomatic, social, political, academic, and media. Though they managed to highlight the Kashmir conflict internationally, but they could not make some tangible impact as India‟s constitutional re-arrangements and the human rights violations in Jammu & Kashmir continued unabated.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, Diaspora, Social Movement, Constitution, and Protests
Political Geography:: India and Asia

1841. Analytical Review of Pak-China Strategic Cooperation 1950-2017

Author:: Muhammad Azhar Naeem and Abdul Majid
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The present study is aimed to provide analytical review of Pak-China strategic cooperation starting from 1950 to 2017. Pakistan started to establish her strategic relations with the outer world soon after her independence in 1947 in order to maintain balance of power in the region. Bilateral ties remained very encouraging from the beginning of Pak-China relations. However, bilateral ties touch its heights in the decade of 1960s. After 1960s, bilateral relation turned to diplomatic relations because of changing world scenario i.e. cold war, terrorism, One China Policy and change of world order. Still China helped Pakistan financially, technologically and assisted in developing nuclear program. In 21st century, relations became stronger of and both the nations started helping each other to materialize their goals in diverse fields. One such example is the implementation of (China – Pakistan Economic Corridor) CPEC which is expected to change the fate of both the countries in future.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and Asia

1842. China Pakistan Ties: Challenges and Implications for the region (2013-2018)

Author:: Rabia Bashir
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China’s active role in South Asia is based on a “win-win” approach which is also beneficial for the economic progress of the regional states. China’s rapid economic integration represents its intention to maintain peace and stability in its vicinity. To hold its presence in the Indian Ocean region it is developing strong economic and trade ties with South Asian states. This region has become a center of attention where the interests of major powers China, India and the United States intersects. The joint venture of “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” strategically holds huge significance for China, Pakistan and major powers like India and the US being rival to China. This corridor will enhance the economic conditions of not only China and Pakistan but also the other developing and the landlocked states of CARs and Afghanistan.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Peace, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and Asia

1843. Dynamics of Political Discussion of Voters in 2013 General Election in Pakistan

Author:: Rana Umair Nadeem and Hafiz Ejaz Bashir
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Mass Media is among the major source to disseminate the political information in South Asia. Political news informs citizens regarding policies of political parties. Public and voters rely on political news on television, radio, social media and newspapers to know about the political world. This study examines the effects of mass media on the voters‟ participation in political discussion in general election 2013 in Pakistan. This study explores the process by which voters‟ behavior regarding political discussion is affected by political news exposure. For data collection, cross sectional survey method was used. The survey participants / respondents are primary school teacher voters in Lahore Division. Multistage purposive sampling technique was used for taking the sample of voters.
Topic:: Elections, Media, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1844. CPEC and Re-Orientation of China-Pakistan Relations

Author:: Muhammad Ikram
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The ̳One Belt One Road‘ term refers to ̳The Maritime Silk Road and the Silk Road Economic Belt. This mega initiative was announced by Chinese president, Xi Jiping, in September 2013 during his official state visit to Kazakhstan. Pakistan is most important pillar of this Chinese initiative. Under the One Belt One Road framework, several corridors will be built in future. Whereas, with the development of OBOR, regional economies will boost up to $2.5 trillion and more than 4.4 billion population will get benefits across 65 countries. The Silk Road Economic Belt will link China, Central Asia, Russia, and Europe through the Persian Gulf and South East Asia and Indian Ocean. However, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will be built to connect the Pakistan's Port Gawadar with Chinese city of Kashagar in autonomous province Xinjiang. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project is a game changer for the region and particularly for China and Pakistan, through the development of roads, railways, oil and gas pipe lines. Thus, the project brings wealth and prosperity across the region, particularly in Pakistan. But on the other hand, Pakistan is facing serious internal and external threats from terrorism and extremism since 2001. This work is an attempt to enlighten the prospects of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and constraints in the way of this mega projects.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Peace, Economic Development, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and Asia

1845. Hindutva in India: Rise of Bigotry against Muslims

Author:: Inayat Kalim, Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi, and Areeja Syed
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The preface of the Indian Constitution declares India a sovereign, democratic, republic, and socialist state. Later on through the 42nd amendment, socialist and secular terms were incorporated into the constitution. Indian social order is known to be a multi-cultural and multi- religious society on account of an assortment of castes, religions, and cultures. Within all that disparities, Muslims form the main minority in the state. However, a clear-cut pluralistic discrepancy between the theory and practice of the Indian constitution is obvious. Indian Muslims are deprived of cultural, religious, and political rights due to the escalation of Hindutva policies throughout the Modi reign. The continued Kashmir dispute and the recent Pulwama attack intensified India- Pakistan animosity and the root cause seems to be the rise of Hindutva in India. For that reason, the authors delve into the matter and strive to present a descriptive analysis on the rise of Hindutva in India and the illicit silence of the international actors on this grave Indian fanaticism.
Topic:: Civil Society, Religion, Minorities, Discrimination, and Secularism
Political Geography:: India and Asia

1846. India-Pakistan Relations: Can Guru Nanak be a Factor of Peace?

Author:: Tawseef Ahmad Mir
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Guru Nanak Dev was born in November, 1469. He grew up to be the founder of Sikhism along with other nine Gurus. It soon emerged as an independent faith, and instantly won many followers to its fold. Therefore, the purpose of this research paper will be to delve into Guru Nanak’s role and appreciating his importance as far as bridging the wide gulf of enmity particularly between India and Pakistan and in the wider South Asia region in general. As all his life he focussed on fostering amity, peace, brotherhood, tolerance and harmony among people of various backgrounds, his teachings therefore promise to have all the necessary ingredients of peace which is currently wanting in the region.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, India, and Asia

1847. The Rise of Extremism in Pakistan: International Dynamics

Author:: Nasreen Akhter and Musarat Amin
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Extremism in Pakistan has been the outcome of so-called Jihadists who wanted continuous recruitment for the Afghan-Soviet war(1979-89) and madrassas were settled with primary aim of propagation of so-called Jihad. Pakistan, being an Islamic Republic had already fertile ground for the promotion of Islamic ideology but this unfortunately was misconstrued by U.S. funded war which later turned Pakistani society into an abyss of extremism. Wave of sectarianism, drugs and political instability fomented extremism in the society. Internal strife coupled with international dynamics, badly distorted Pakistan‟s image internationally. That is the reason terrorists enjoyed support of masses despite military operations against them. This paper highlights that how the extremism rooted into Pakistani society caused wave of extremism, terrorism and hate. Pakistan faced serious challenges to economy and internal stability. Pakistan waged counterterrorism operations under the National Action Plan (NAP) but there is a need of counter-extremism policy that will normalize the society and regain its potential to excel.
Topic:: Religion, Terrorism, Discrimination, Conflict, Ideology, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1848. Provincial Pride, Public Outcry: The Creation of the Lahore High Court and Judicial Development in South Asia

Author:: Yaqoob Khan Bangash
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The creation of a modern judicial system is one of the most enduring legacy of British rule in South Asia, especially the Punjab. In the Punjab, the judicial system not only ingrained itself quickly but the province soon became the most litigious in India. Despite being often labelled as the ‘loyal’ province, progress in its higher judiciary was slow. Even though the Punjab got a Chief Court in 1866, it was only after decades of representations by the judges of the Punjab Chief Court, the Government of the Punjab and finally the Government of India, that Whitehall granted a High Court to the province in 1919, much later than other comparable provinces. The reasons behind such a delay, the long-drawn process, and the final upgradation of the Punjab Chief Court as the Lahore High Court, merit study as they shed critical light on the pattern of governance, development of public interest, and the ultimate role and impact of the judiciary in the Punjab.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Governance, Legal Theory, Local, State Building, Judiciary, and Community
Political Geography:: India and Asia

1849. Inquiry on the Effect of Federalism in Patterns of Internal Migration in Nepal: Study from Province 1

Author:: Dipesh Karki and Riya Regmi
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Nepal became federal state in 2008 with the aspiration of inclusive-development and reduction of economic disparity between rural and urban parts of the country. However using qualitative approach, paper finds that after federalism, especially with the contentious choice of provincial capital and subsequent tax increase, there has been an overall decline in business in rural towns of the province, leading to the increased displacement of the youth populace from rural town to the provincial capital. By performing in-depth interviews of 22 respondents from province 1 and carrying out thematic analysis the paper further finds that unplanned dozer development, increased corruption, and lack of improvement in the education and health sector has further contributed in internal migration. Overall the broad theme of unmet expectation emerged as the main factor that led general populace to be displaced from their roots
Topic:: Migration, Governance, State Building, and Federalism
Political Geography:: Asia and Nepal

1850. Paradox of Female Labor Force Participation in South Asia

Author:: Hina Mubeen, Arshad Syed Karim, and Sadaf Alam
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Worldwide, startling gender disparities exist in employment. There has been a shift in gender culture in the present era which requires both men and women to have paid jobs and share household responsibilities. South Asian region with leading economies like India, Bangladesh and Nepal, presents an interesting paradox for research. Hence, the aim of this conceptual paper is to understand the push and pull factors which influence female labor force participation in the South Asian region in purview of various social, cultural and institutional impediments to engaging into their economic role. Specifically in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the female labor force participation rates are significantly lower than the other South Asian nations, scarce conceptual as well as empirical researches have been conducted till date to analyze the underlying reasons and consequences of gender inequality or in labor force participation. The article highlights that in case of majority of the developing countries of South Asia, there are numerous complications associated with prevalent gender stereotypes within the society and the division of labor. The author argues that it fails to acknowledge women’s triple role in the society. Lack of adequate institutional framework can be one of the prime reasons of low scores for the South Asian region that restrains women to enter productive employment sectors. Discrimination against women in labor force can be costly in the course of development. If properly utilized in the labor market, with the provision of an enabling environment, this huge workforce can make significant contributions to the economic development and growth of the region. Ultimately, it would aid in attaining the Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger from the world.
Topic:: Development, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Economic Growth, Feminism, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

1851. Macroeconomic Determinents of Crime in South Asian Countries: A Panal Data Approach

Author:: Rana Hazma Gull, Kauser Perveen, and Amber Bakhsh Basit
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This research explores the economic determinants of crime in case of a panel of South Asian countries (Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh). To empirically determine the relationship between crime and its determinants, data for the concerned variables are collected for the period of 2003 to 2017 from different sources like World Development Indicator (WDI), National Police Survey and UNESCO. In this study, education, economic growth, population and unemployment are used as the determinants of crime. To find out the relationship Random Effect Model (REM) and Fixed Effect Model (FEM) models are constructed. After applying diagnostic test, it is found that Fixed Effect Model is appropriate. But the FEM model violates the assumptions of classical linear regression model (CLRM) because there is hertoscedasticity and autocorrelation problem in the data. To robust these problems, feasible generalized least square (FGLS) model has been applied. The results of FGLS revealed that education has negative and significant impact on crime. Contrary, population, economic growth and unemployment have positive and significant impact on crime. The study recommends that government should give preference to education sector. On the other hand, government should control the population growth and unemployment rate.
Topic:: Crime, Education, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Models
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

1852. Impact of Gas Conservation on Aggregate Economy and Trade of Pakistan

Author:: Shahbaz Sharif, Muhammad Shakeel, and Qasim Saleem
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The present study assesses the gas-use based aggregate production framework to find out the co- integration among the variables and thereby estimate the error correction mechanism of the empirical models. Johansen’s based co-integration test has been applied with VECM based causality test to assess the long run and causal relationship for yearly time series data over 1980- 2014 for Pakistan. The empirical findings demonstrate a statistically significant co-integration to exist among real economic production/GDP, labor, capital and gas-use in both the models with and without exports. The findings of causality test depict long-run unidirectional relationship from labor, capital stock, gas-use and export towards the real GDP. The feedback connection between gas-use and real GDP is also found statistically significant in the short-term. The findings imply a warning for reduction of gas-use via energy conservation policies which may reduce exportable production. The reduction of gas use will downward curtail the economic growth, directly and via exports’ multiplier effect upon GDP, indirectly. Therefore, development of new energy technologies has been suggested to balance the supply-demand gap and thereby promisingly expanding the export-led sector for triggering the Economic output/GDP growth and sustainability of energy resources in the country.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, Gas, Conservation, Renewable Energy, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1853. The Strategic Implications of Chinese-Iranian-Russian Naval Drills in the Indian Ocean

Author:: Syed Fazl-e Haider
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In early December, Major General Shao Yuanming (邵元明), the Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), traveled to the Islamic Republic of Iran for rare high-level military meetings. These meetings were held for the purpose of organizing a series of unprecedented joint naval drills between China, Iran, and Russia, which were held in the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Oman from December 27–29. The drills took place just as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran reached a crisis point at the end of 2019. The exercise also signified a deepening relationship between Iran and the PRC in economics, diplomacy, and security affairs. China and Russia have both increased military and economic cooperation with Iran in the year and a half since the U.S. government pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, while Iran’s government has repeatedly touted its deepening relations with China and Russia as a show of diplomatic strength, its allies have been less public about the growing relationship. In December, Iranian officials lauded the trilateral exercises—titled “Marine Security Belt”—as proof that Iran can outlast crippling sanctions with aid from its non-Western allies, and declared that the drills signaled a new triple alliance in the Middle East (Tasnim News, December 29, 2019). [1] By contrast, officials from Russia and the PRC were more restrained, framing the joint exercises as part of routine anti-piracy operations, highlighting their peacekeeping priorities and seeking to depoliticize the drills (South China Morning Post, September 23, 2019; Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Russia), October 2, 2019).
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Navy, Maritime, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

1854. Pakistan and CPEC Are Drawn Into the U.S.-China Rivalry

Author:: Adnan Aamir
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Leaders in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan were stunned in late November when a senior U.S. government official issued a strong verbal attack on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). On November 21 in Washington, D.C., U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asia Affairs Alice Wells spoke at length about the CPEC at a public event, criticizing multiple elements of the $62 billion flagship component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Ambassador Wells cast doubt upon claims that CPEC will generate sustainable economic development in Pakistan and criticized the project’s cost escalations and non-transparent processes of awarding CPEC contracts to Chinese firms. She appealed to Pakistan’s citizens to ask tough questions of the PRC regarding the CPEC and China’s related projects in Pakistan (U.S. State Department, November 21, 2019). In the past, the U.S. government had raised concerns over CPEC and China’s “debt-trap diplomacy,” but it had never presented such a direct and detailed set of criticisms. Ambassador Wells crossed that line—bringing the notoriously stalled out CPEC back under international scrutiny just after Chinese and Pakistani leaders had brokered a cautiously optimistic set of funding deals to jumpstart progress a month before (Ministry of Foreign Affairs (PRC), October 9, 2019). Chinese representatives were quick to respond to Ambassador Wells’s criticisms. The next day, PRC Ambassador to Islamabad Yao Jing(姚敬) said that he had been “shocked and surprised to see the remarks of Alice,” and that Ambassador Wells lacked accurate knowledge and had relied on “Western media ‘propaganda’” for her accusations. He called on the U.S. to “show your evidence, give me evidence” of specific cases of corruption related to the CPEC, and questioned whether Wells was taking potshots at the CPEC to score political points. Ambassador Yao challenged the U.S. to suit its actions to its words: “If there is any sincerity… [the U.S. should] come forward to invest in Pakistan. We [China] welcome U.S. investment in Pakistan.” (INP (Pakistan), November 22, 2019; VOA, November 22, 2019). In addition to refocusing negative attention on the CPEC, Assistant Secretary of State Wells’ speech drew a reluctant Pakistan further into the tumultuous U.S.-China political rivalry. Pakistan faces a balance of payments crisis and a severely weakened currency, which has led it to grow increasingly dependent on economic ties with China. At the same time, the Pakistani leadership has navigated a complex and multifaceted historic security and political partnership with the U.S. If, as Ambassador Wells’ statement seems to imply, Pakistan’s engagement with China is seen to come at the expense of its bilateral relationship with the U.S. – or vice-versa – then Pakistan’s delicate power balancing diplomacy will soon become even more tenuous.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1855. Making Foreign Companies Serve China: Outsourcing Propaganda to Local Entities in the Czech Republic

Author:: Martin Hala
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The fast build-up and equally sudden decline of Chinese influence in the Czech Republic offers an interesting case study of vulnerability and resilience in the newly democratic small states targeted by the united front operations of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). [1] Recent revelations about a powerful Czech financial corporation manipulating public opinion in favor of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) demonstrate the complex dynamics between political and economic actors—both Chinese and local—and how private companies are being leveraged to spread pro-PRC propaganda (Aktuálně, December 10, 2019 / English translation). The main vector of influence in the Czech Republic has been the PRC’s “economic diplomacy,” which downplays political differences and emphasizes the economic opportunities offered by closer relationships with China (Sinopsis, March 11, 2019; China Brief, May 9, 2019). In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), it builds on promises of investments into local economies still lagging behind those in Western Europe. The promised investments may or may not materialize, but the economic enticement alone creates a conducive environment for the cooptation of local political and business elites in a manner similar to more traditional united front tactics (China Brief, May 9, 2019). Apart from the promised investments by Chinese companies, the reverse allure may consist of market access in China for local companies, which may then be manipulated into becoming propaganda echo chambers for the CCP. The Czech Republic offers examples of both of these phenomena.
Topic:: Propaganda, Local, Private Sector, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Czech Republic

1856. Beijing Piles More Pressure on Taiwan after a Historic Victory by Tsai Ing-Wen

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: How will Beijing react to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s resounding re-election victory on January 11, when she garnered a historic 8 million votes, or 57.13 percent of the electorate? So far, Beijing’s response to this triumph by the candidate of the theoretically pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been relatively non-belligerent. The spokesman of the cabinet-level Taiwan Affairs Office said a few hours after the polls that Beijing would “insist on the basic objective of ‘peaceful unification and one country, two systems’,” even though he also indicated that Beijing would not tolerate “any form of ‘Taiwan independence’.” Another post-election commentary by the official Xinhua News Agency said that “the mainland firmly holds the initiative in bilateral relations.” In an article in the usually hawkish Global Times, Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin said Chinese society was “prepared for war with Taiwan independence,” but that it was not yet ready for “immediate warfare” (Xinhua, January 12; Phoenix TV News, January 12; Global Times, January 11; South China Morning Post, January 11). Observers of Taiwan Strait dynamics have noted that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, the highest-ranking decision-maker on Taiwan issues, was bitterly unhappy about the margin of Tsai’s victory; and that the commander-in-chief will likely order a series of measures to boost “war preparation,” squeeze Taiwan’s diplomatic space, suppress Taiwan’s economy, and nurture the so-called “fifth column” in Taiwan society (Chinatimes.com, January 12; HK01.com, January 11). The fifth column is a reference to Taiwanese politicians and businesspeople who, while professing to defend their island against Communist aggression, are proposing more communication and even “pro-unification talks” with Beijing as a result of their dependence (financial or otherwise) on the CCP.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

1857. The State Response to a Mystery Viral Outbreak in Central China

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In December, a mysterious outbreak of infectious disease emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan (Hubei Province). The epicenter of the outbreak was the Wuhan Huanan Seafood Market (武汉华南海鲜批发市场, Wuhan Haixian Pifa Shichang), which was closed by officials in Wuhan on January 1 pending further investigation of the origin of the disease (see accompanying images). As of January 11, public health officials in Wuhan stated that there were a total of 41 identified cases of infection, among which two persons had been discharged from treatment, seven were seriously ill, and one person had died; 739 other persons were identified as having contact with those infected, and were to be subject to medical observation (Wuhan Health Commission, January 11). Chinese researchers have identified the pathogen as a previously-unknown strain of coronavirus. This a large family of viruses—including the common cold, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)—that are zoonotic in origin (i.e., transferred via human-animal contact) and cause respiratory illnesses with widely varying levels of severity (WHO, undated). The viral outbreak in Wuhan inspired inevitable comparisons to the SARS pandemic that originated in southern China and swept through the country (and spread to other countries) in two waves in 2002-2003 and 2003-2004. It also follows on the heels of other recent infectious zoonotic disease incidents in China, such as a minor outbreak of pneumonic and bubonic plague in Inner Mongolia in November 2019 (AFP, November 28). The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak affords an opportunity to observe and compare the government’s handling of this latest public health crisis alongside those that have occurred in recent years. It also illustrates the continued contradictions faced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in attempting to improve its capacity for governance, while also maintaining a monopoly over the public dissemination of information.
Topic:: Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1858. New Wine Into New Wineskins: The Evolving Role of the PLA Navy Marine Corps in Amphibious Warfare and Other Mission Areas

Author:: Ying Yu Lin
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Historically, the Marine Corps was not a branch greatly valued by the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The explanation for this had much to do with the PLA’s mission priorities: the PLA has looked to the Taiwan Strait as its main focus area for amphibious warfare, and the PLA Army (PLAA) has traditionally held the primary role in this functional area, with the PLAN Marine Corps (PLANMC) operating in a secondary role. The former Nanjing Military Region—since reorganized as the Eastern Theater Command (China Brief, February 4, 2016)—has amphibious mechanized units that were subordinate to the PLAA 1st and 73rd Group Armies (now reorganized as the 72nd and 73rd Group Armies, respectively) (China Military, December 2, 2018). The amphibious mechanized units of the PLA Army feature heavier firepower and greater mobility than the PLAN Marine Corps (which originally consisted of only two brigades, the 1st and 164th, both subordinate to the South Sea Fleet). The PLAA amphibious forces focused on “big island” targets: these “big island” targets obviously included Taiwan, the PLA’s top priority scenario for resources and contingency planning. By contrast, the PLANMC was oriented largely towards the defense of islands or reefs in the South China and East China Seas. As the PLAN has become increasingly stronger in recent years, its efforts to field greater numbers of modern warships—and the deployments and training of these ships—have attracted ever-greater attention. In line with the expansion of its parent service, the PLAN Marine Corps has also grown, in terms of both numbers and missions, to align with China’s growing overseas interests. The two original brigades of the Marine Corps have been augmented in recent years by six more—four combined arms brigades, a special operations brigade, and elements of a shipborne helicopter aviation brigade—based in multiple locations along the length of China’s coastline (China Brief, February 1, 2019). Only in recent years has the PLA as a larger institution started to rethink the value and use of the Marine Corps—a change resulting from the PLAN’s improvements in capability, and China’s growing national power and increasing overseas interests. Recent training exercises provide some indication of likely future missions for the PLAN’s larger and more capable Marine Corps branch.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1859. The Vatican Stays Away from the Hong Kong Crisis Due to Fears of Beijing’s Retaliation

Author:: Emanuele Scimia
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On January 9, in his annual message to diplomatic envoys accredited to the Holy See, Pope Francis voiced concern for the conflicts ravaging parts of the Middle East, Africa, the Caucasus, and Ukraine, as well as for the increasing number of political crises gripping Latin America. However, not a single word was offered about the situation in Hong Kong (Vatican News, Vatican State Website, January 9). Serious socio-political unrest began in Hong Kong last June over a now-withdrawn extradition bill that, according to protesters, would allow the extradition of political dissidents to mainland China (China Brief, June 26, 2019). The pontiff has so far said nothing about the crisis in the city, much to the chagrin of many local Catholics. It seems that the Vatican has no intention of supporting the anti-government movement in Hong Kong, as such a move would hinder its attempts to improve relations with the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Religion, Leadership, Catholic Church, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Vatican city

1860. The Future of Chinese Foreign Economic Policy Will Challenge U.S. Interests, Part 1: The Belt-and-Road Initiative and the Middle Income Trap

Author:: Sagatom Saha
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping and other senior CCP leaders have prudently planned for the slowing economic growth that China now faces. CCP officials plan to transition China from its current export-led growth model to one driven by indigenous innovation, and one in which China’s rising global prominence confers to it many of the same advantages traditionally enjoyed by the United States (such as low borrowing costs and influence within international institutions). Although U.S.-China relations have become further fraught amid the trade war, many prominent China hands nevertheless assert that Beijing’s long-term economic plans do not run counter to U.S. strategic interests. [1] However, many of China’s planned foreign economic initiatives—to include the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), global value chain advancement, and renminbi (RMB) internationalization—will come at U.S. expense. Policymakers in both Washington and Beijing should accordingly expect U.S.-China tensions to persist beyond the Trump administration. China’s need for new growth vehicles is twofold: its economic size has not translated into global influence, and its current economic model is losing steam. First, China’s transformation into the world’s second-largest economy has yet to yield equivalent influence in the international system. Beijing’s sway in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for example, lag behind China’s status as the largest trade partner and foreign investor for much of the world. The United States, by contrast, has leveraged its economic status to maintain effective control of the Bretton-Woods institutions, to obtain low borrowing costs, and to exercise punishing sanctions programs against unfriendly governments. Second, Chinese growth has seen a secular decline over the last decade (see figure 1). The official projected GDP growth rate for 2020 is 6.1 percent (Xinhua, November 30, 2019), but some Chinese officials have hinted that they expect lower sub-6 percent growth in 2020 (South China Morning Post, November 14, 2019). This is a noteworthy signal, for CCP discourse has previously identified the benchmark of 6 percent GDP growth as necessary to avoid social unrest (China Brief, March 22, 2019).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1861. The CCP Response to the Wuhan Coronavirus: A Preliminary Assessment

Author:: Ryan Oliver
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (冠状病毒, guanzhuang bingdu) emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan. The precise origin of the coronavirus remains unclear, although experts agree that it is zoonotic and likely originated at a now-closed marketplace that sold seafood and other animal products for consumption. After initial submissions to the World Health Organization (WHO) on December 31 reported that an unknown pneumonia virus had infected 59 people in Wuhan, cases soon began to surface in other Chinese cities (WHO, December 31). The disease—now officially designated “2019-nCoV”—has spread beyond China’s borders and is now present in 16 other countries. As of January 28, the Wuhan coronavirus has resulted in 4,599 confirmed cases of infection and 106 fatalities (Phoenix News, January 28). Faced with another spreading epidemic, the central government has responded with more speed and transparency than during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2002-2004. Wuhan and several other cities in Hubei province have imposed quarantines that limit public transportation, and have initiated measures to isolate these cities’ populations. Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have also imposed restrictions to manage the flow of travelers. Officials also closed many tourist sites and postponed or canceled many Lunar New Year events nationwide, while extending the New Year holiday for three additional days in support of response efforts (Xinhua, January 26). Questions remain as to how effective these control measures can be in limiting the movement of people in and around China—particularly in light of the size of the cities in question, and the mass exodus of holiday travelers typical for this time of year. Besides these quarantine measures, efforts to isolate and slow the spread of 2019-nCoV have also included sending significant financial and medical resources to Wuhan and other affected areas. In addition to the deployment of medical teams from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), China’s National Health Commission has dispatched over 1,000 personnel in six medical teams from across the country to the Wuhan area (World Journal, January 26). The China Development Bank has issued a 2 billion yuan ($288.3 million) emergency loan, while the Ministry of Finance has allocated 1 billion yuan ($144.2 million) towards combating the 2019-nCoV virus (Sina, January 25). Alongside the official response from Beijing, China’s private sector—including companies such as Tencent, JD.com, Lenovo and Xiaomi—has also offered contributions of funds and medical supplies (SCMP, January 25).
Topic:: Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1862. The “Democratic Life Meetings” of the Chinese Communist Party Politburo

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On December 26 and 27, China’s central leadership held a “democratic life meeting” (民主生活会, minzhu shenghuo hui) for the full membership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo (Xinhua, December 27, 2019). This has become an annual end-of-year tradition for the Politburo, with similarly-designated meetings held in late December of each year from 2015 to the present (see accompanying chart). Official press treatment of the meetings since 2015 has consistently emphasized the authoritative position of CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, invariably stating that he “presided over the meeting and delivered an important speech” (主持会议并发表重要讲话, zhuchi huiyi bing fabiao zhongyao jianghua) to the other assembled members.
Topic:: Politics, Leadership, State Building, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1863. Sino-Indian Cooperation on Counter-Terrorism: Not Truly “Hand-in-Hand” At All

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On December 7, 2019, infantry units of the Indian Army and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) commenced the “Hand-in-Hand 2019” combined military exercise at Umroi in the northeastern Indian state of Meghalaya. The fortnight-long exercise ran through December 20, and focused on counter-terrorism operations in semi-urban terrain: to include training evolutions such as cross-training on small arms, hostage rescue, and recognizing improvised explosive device (IED) traps. Approximately 130 personnel from each country participated in the exercise, with the PLA contingent consisting of troops stationed in Tibet (Indian Ministry of Defense, December 2, 2019; Global Times, December 8, 2019; China Military Online, December 23, 2019). It was in January 2001 that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) first expressed interest in cooperating with India in combating terrorism (The Hindu, January 14, 2001). Since then Beijing and New Delhi have taken several steps to facilitate such cooperation: the two sides have set up a Counter-Terrorism Dialogue Mechanism, a Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism, and a High-Level Dialogue on Counter-Terrorism and Security to facilitate such engagement. In addition to leadership-level discussions, officials are engaging in talks on a range of terrorism-related issues. In October 2018, the two sides signed an Internal Security Cooperation Agreement, which aims at strengthening cooperation in areas such as counter-terrorism, intelligence sharing, and narcotics control (Business Standard, October 22, 2018). The “Hand-in-Hand” exercises were first set in motion in 2007, and the December 2019 training in Meghalaya represented the eighth round of these counter-terrorism exercises. Such events—as well as the joint agreements between the two governments—present a picture of India and China as closely engaged on counter-terrorism issues. The truth is quite different, however—and the two sides are far from “hand-in-hand” in their understanding of terrorism.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

1864. The Future of Chinese Foreign Economic Policy Will Challenge U.S. Interests, Part 2: Renminbi Internationalization and International Economic Institutions

Author:: Sagatom Saha
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Complications surrounding the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the dangers of the “middle-income trap,” are not the only factors impacting the international economic policies of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Furthermore, poor capital efficiency is not the only feature of the Chinese economy that frustrates the country’s policymakers. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) has roughly doubled in the last decade, but Beijing’s pull in the international monetary and financial system remains lackluster. This lack of progress stems in part from the dollar’s centrality around the world, as well as U.S. dominance in international economic institutions. Beijing’s economic planners have long advocated against the dollar while attempting to increase the global role of the PRC’s own renminbi (RMB) currency. While past efforts stumbled, RMB internationalization and increased Chinese influence will directly confront U.S. economic and geopolitical interests.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1865. How the Wuhan Epidemic Has Dented Xi Jinping’s Authority and Prestige

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In his telephone conversation with President Trump on February 6, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping expressed confidence that Beijing can beat the coronavirus outbreak, and asserted that “the fact that China’s economy will be better in the long run will not change.” But at a meeting of the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) a few days earlier, Xi expressed fears about the adverse impact that the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic could have on China’s reform and open door policy (RTHK.hk, February 7; HK01.com, February 6; Ming Pao, February 4). Of even greater concern to the CCP leadership, however, is the sustainability of state power and Beijing’s ability to “uphold stability” (维稳, weiwen) in Chinese society. Much of this hinges on the performance of Xi—who is also state president, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and the “life-long core” of the party leadership. That Beijing has failed to contain the alarming spread of the virus, however, demonstrates that Xi is facing the gravest crisis since he came to power in late 2012. It is clear that Xi is still in solid control of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the People’s Armed Police (PAP), the regular police, and the police state surveillance apparatus. Both central CCP officials and supportive foreign dignitaries are projecting confidence. While visiting Beijing in late January, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus praised China’s efforts against the coronavirus disaster, saying that Chinese authorities had displayed “Chinese speed and Chinese efficiency” (People’s Daily, January 29). After an unusual period of public absence in late January and early February, Xi has reappeared to assert his leadership and to declare a “people’s war” against the epidemic (Xinhua, February 11).
Topic:: Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1866. The CCP’s New Leading Small Group for Countering the Coronavirus Epidemic—and the Mysterious Absence of Xi Jinping

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The “2019-nCov” virus epidemic that first appeared in December in the central Chinese city of Wuhan continues to sweep throughout the country: as of February 11, there were over 43,000 official reported cases of persons who had fallen ill from the virus, and over 1,000 reported deaths (Johns-Hopkins CSSE, February 11). Aside from the human toll, the epidemic has resulted in large regions of Hebei Province being placed under quarantine, which is placing a severe strain on the Chinese economy. The crisis is also presenting a severe test of governance for the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP)—which, after being caught flat-footed in December and early January, is scrambling to stop the spread of the disease and to mount an effective medical response for those already affected. The second half of January saw a dramatic change in the posture of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) central government towards the epidemic. For the first three weeks of January, PRC state media organs downplayed the seriousness of the 2019-nCov outbreak, while emphasizing a steady stream of positive news stories: such as the successful achievement of government goals for poverty reduction, preparations for Lunar New Year celebrations, and the exalted status of CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping as “People’s Leader” (人民领袖, renmin lingxiu) (China Media Project, January 30). This changed around January 20-21, when Xinhua outlets shifted to coverage of the epidemic by reporting on Xi’s “important directions” (重要指示, zhongyao zhishi) for responding to the viral outbreak (Xinhua, January 20). This was followed in turn by the announcement of special meetings focused on the crisis: State Council meetings on January 20 chaired by PRC Premier Li Keqiang, and on January 23-24 by Vice-Premier Sun Chunlan (PRC Government, January 20; PRC Government, January 24); and a Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) meeting on January 25 chaired by Xi Jinping (PRC Government, January 25). Then, on January 26 state media unveiled a newly-formed policy-making and coordination body at the top echelon of the CCP: the “Central Leading Small Group for Work to Counter the New Coronavirus Infection Pneumonia Epidemic” (中央应对新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情工作领导小组, Zhongyang Yingdui Xin Guanzhuang Bingdu Ganran Feiyan Yiqing Gongzuo Lingdao Xiaozu) (hereafter, “Coronavirus Leading Small Group,” or CLSG). In an unusual move for such a high-profile policy issue, Xi Jinping did not take direct ex officio control of the CLSG—instead delegating the chairmanship to the nominal #2 figure in the party-state hierarchy, State Council Premier Li Keqiang (李克强). Per commentary in state media, the purpose of the new body is to operate “under the leadership of the Politburo Standing Committee, strengthening unified leadership and unified direction for prevention and control of the national epidemic” (Xinhua, January 26).
Topic:: Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1867. China’s Declining Birth Rate and Changes in CCP Population Policies

Author:: Linda Zhang
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Demography may not be destiny, but China has always been conscious of rearing the next generation. One of the three unfilial acts, according to the ancient Chinese philosopher Mencius, is the failure to bear a son. The Chinese have traditionally viewed offspring as a form of wealth, and have placed immense value on fecundity. [1] Despite such traditional beliefs, in the years after the Cultural Revolution senior officials of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) feared that overpopulation would exhaust the country’s scarce resources. In 1980, the CCP formally implemented the One Child Policy (独生子女政策, Dusheng Zi Nu Zhengce), or OCP, a national family planning policy that limited parents to only one child (Xinhua, November 16, 2015). However, after over three decades of efforts to reduce population growth, People’s Republic of China (PRC) officials are now concerned about a shrinking workforce and an aging population. The CCP leadership repealed OCP in 2015, but the fertility rate in China is nowhere near pre-OCP levels. Furthermore, the PRC has seen a significant decline in birth rate in recent years (see discussion below). The true extent of the decline is impossible to verify, but the downward trend in birth numbers is worrisome. This article examines both official PRC statistics on total birth numbers for recent years, as well as discussions among Chinese netizens using unconfirmed statistics, to analyze the deep uncertainties surrounding China’s demographic and political future.
Topic:: Population, Domestic Policy, Birthing, and Birth Rates
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1868. The PRC’s Cautious Stance on the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy

Author:: Yamazaki Amane
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In June 2019, the U.S. Department of Defense issued a major new policy document, the Indo-Pacific Strategy Report, which asserted that “Inter-state strategic competition, defined by geopolitical rivalry between free and repressive world order visions, is the primary concern for U.S. national security.” The document was clear as to which country it identified as the greatest source of strategic concern: “In particular, the People’s Republic of China, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, seeks to reorder the region to its advantage by leveraging military modernization, influence operations, and predatory economics to coerce other nations.” [1] This was followed by the U.S. State Department document A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision, issued in November 2019. This document stated that “Authoritarian revisionist powers seek to advance their parochial interests at others’ expense,” and that therefore “the United States is strengthening and deepening partnerships with countries that share our values.” [2] In using such language, the United States is not alone. Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Abe Shinzo has advocated Japan’s own “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy,” which he has discussed since 2016. This concept emphasizes economic development assistance and infrastructure construction, promotion of the rule of law, and freedom of trade. It particularly emphasizes maritime security and freedom of navigation—which connect directly to the territorial disputes that are a key point of ongoing contention between Japan and China. [3] The U.S. and its allies have advanced their cooperation on this new “Indo-Pacific Strategy” quietly but steadily: in one notable example, on February 4, the U.S. Department of the Treasury and its Japanese counterpart signed the “Memorandum of Cooperation [MOC] on Strengthening Energy and Infrastructure Finance and Market Building.” Brent McIntosh, Under Secretary for International Affairs in the U.S. Department of the Treasury, noted that the MOC is “a testament to our shared commitment to advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific” (U.S. Department of the Treasury, February 4, 2020). Given that several regional governments—including the United States, Japan, Australia, and India (the so-called “QUAD” group), as well as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—have incorporated the term “Indo-Pacific” as a part of their official strategy or policy, the significance of this broad concept will continue to increase in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, China’s reaction to the Indo-Pacific Strategy has been restrained so far, although it is certain that Beijing is closely monitoring it. This article considers the narrative on Indo-Pacific-related affairs in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), by focusing primarily on how officials of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) have dealt with the concept, as well as how cooperation among regional states has developed since the latter part of 2017.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1869. Fair-Weather Friends: The Impact of the Coronavirus on the Strategic Partnership Between Russia and China

Author:: Johan Van de Ven
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In June 2019, during a visit to the Kremlin by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation announced that they had “agreed…to upgrade their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era” (Xinhua, June 6, 2019). This continued the warming of bilateral relations nurtured by Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who have met at least 30 times during their respective tenures. The strengthening of ties has seen unusually relaxed encounters between the pair, such as when they made blini (traditional Russian pancakes) together in Vladivostok in September 2018 (People’s Daily, September 12, 2018). In more substantive terms, support from Chinese state-linked financial institutions has played a critical role in the construction of a new wave of Russian energy infrastructure, ranging from the Yamal Liquified Natural Gas Project to the “Power of Siberia” gas pipeline. However, the ongoing COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak has opened a stress fracture in the bilateral Sino-Russian relationship. After weeks of gradually escalating restrictions, reports emerged in late February that Moscow public transit drivers had been instructed to call police if they witnessed Chinese passengers using the transit system (Wangyi Keji, February 25). The PRC Embassy in Russia warned that such actions “will harm the good atmosphere for developing Chinese-Russian relations” (Novaya Gazeta, February 25). While China was initially restrained it its public criticism of Russian measures taken in the course of the COVID-19 epidemic, the decision of the PRC Embassy in Moscow to highlight the discrimination being faced by Chinese citizens in Moscow is a reminder of just how quickly tensions can arise between the two countries, even in the age of “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era.”
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

1870. Beijing’s Appointment of Xia Baolong Signals a Harder Line on Hong Kong

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Beijing has signaled a much tougher policy toward the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) with the announcement on February 13 that Xia Baolong (夏宝龙), the Vice-Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), would take up a concurrent appointment as Director of the State Council’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office (HKMAO). In the official pecking order of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a CPPCC vice-chairman is reckoned as a “state leader”—and therefore, this move portends the raising of the status of the HKMAO and the overall importance of Hong Kong affairs in national policy. Also significant is the fact that from 2002 to 2007, when Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping was party secretary of the coastal Zhejiang Province, Xia was deputy party secretary. The fact that Xia, who began his career in the Tianjian municipality, is an important Xi protégé is well-known among China analysts (Ming Pao [Hong Kong], February 14; HK01.com, February 13). The HKMAO is usually headed by a ministerial-level official. Zhang Xiaoming (张晓明), a veteran of the HKMAO whom Xia replaced, is a ministerial-level cadre. After being demoted, Zhang remains the Executive Vice-Director of the HKMAO with the title of minister. However, it seems clear that his job will be to execute policies as directed by Xia—and above Xia, Xi Jinping. With the appointment of a key associate as head of the HKMAO, Xi also indirectly takes over the position of the highest arbiter of Hong Kong and Macau affairs. This is despite the fact that according to division of labor, the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) member in charge of Hong Kong—the Head of the Central Coordination Group on Hong Kong and Macau Affairs (CCGHKMA)—is PBSC member and Vice-Premier Han Zheng (韩正). In the past few years, Han has focused on infrastructure programs such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Greater Bay Area Project, leaving Hong Kong-related political issues to Xi as the “lifelong core” of the party (BBC Chinese Service, February 13; ITN.com [Taipei], December 3, 2019; PRC State Council, March 1, 2019).
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Governance, Leadership, Conflict, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Hong Kong

1871. Beijing Purges Wuhan: The CCP Central Authorities Tighten Political Control Over Hubei Province

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Following a slow reaction to the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 virus, since late January the zhongyang (中央), or central authorities, of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have conducted a concerted public relations effort to present themselves as actively engaged in directing efforts to combat the epidemic. This has included the creation of a new senior-level CCP “leading small group” focused on the epidemic (China Brief, February 5), and a messaging campaign to assert that CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping has been personally “commanding China’s fight” against the outbreak (Xinhua, February 2). Senior officials have also made a range of recent public appearances intended to demonstrate zhongyang concern for, and control over, the campaign against the epidemic. These actions have been accompanied by a host of positive news stories in state media about the response to the outbreak. The CCP Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) reportedly held a meeting on February 3 focused on this issue; directives emerging from the meeting stressed that party organs must “perform well in propaganda education and strengthen work to guide public opinion” (做好宣传教育和舆论引导工作, zuo hao xuanchuan jiaoyu he yilun yindao gongzuo) about the epidemic response. To this end, media should emphasize not only inspirational stories about the efforts of local workers, but also “deepen propaganda on the major decisions and deployments of the party center” (深入宣传党中央重大決策部署, shenru xuanchuan dang zhongyang zhongda juece bushu) (HK01, February 5).
Topic:: Governance, Local, Domestic Policy, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1872. China-Iran Relations: The Not-So-Special “Special Relationship”

Author:: John Calabrese
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Over the years, unremitting hostility between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran has created opportunities as well as dilemmas for the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, and the subsequent adoption of a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, presented mixed challenges and opportunities for the PRC. Beijing has sought to exploit the rift between Washington and Tehran without further fueling Sino-American tensions. For the past year, Washington and Tehran have been locked in an action-reaction cycle of escalation. This dangerous spiral reached new heights with the January 2 U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander General Qasem Soleimani, which was followed by retaliatory Iranian missile attacks on two coalition bases in Iraq that injured dozens of American troops. Although both sides managed to pull back from the brink of war in early January, underlying tensions remain—as does the possibility of a more direct military confrontation. In what manner and to what extent has the current unstable situation affected China’s interests in, and relationship with, Iran? What is the likelihood that, as this latest round of high-stakes poker between Washington and Tehran continues to unfold, Beijing will seize it as yet another opportunity to profit from America’s entanglements in the wider Middle East?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

1873. The Illicit Wildlife Trade in China and the State Response Following the Coronavirus Outbreak

Author:: Leo Lin
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus (新型冠状病毒, xinxing guanzhuang bingdu) in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), wildlife trade and consumption have become a top issue in the country. The disease, which has caused 3,215 deaths in China and over 6,500 total deaths worldwide (per official figures, as of March 15), has been identified as a zoonotic virus (i.e., one originating in an animal species) with a possible point of origin in the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, Hubei Province (China Brief, January 17; WHO, February 28; Johns-Hopkins University, ongoing). China, as well as many other countries, suffered from the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003. [1] SARS was also zoonotic in nature: its origin was traced to civet cats (CDC, January 13, 2004), which are considered a delicacy among some mainland Chinese citizens. Seventeen years have passed since the SARS epidemic, and it seems that history repeats itself. Experts in the field of infectious disease have warned that governments should take measures to regulate (or ban outright) the trade and consumption of many wildlife species. The Chinese government has taken several measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19, including a ban on the trade in wild animals—both those that are hunted or captured in wilderness areas, and those that are farmed by people. What lessons have the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and the Chinese public, learned about the potential consequences of the wildlife trade? This article examines the Chinese government’s policy response towards the wildlife trade in the wake of the COVID-19 epidemic, and what this might portend for the future.
Topic:: Trade, Illegal Trade, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Wildlife
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1874. Limited Payoffs: What Have BRI Investments Delivered for China Amid the Coronavirus Outbreak?

Author:: Johan Van de Ven
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The coronavirus outbreak, now declared to be a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO, March 11), offers a prism through which to assess how China interacts with the rest of the world in a time of crisis—one that was at first confined to China’s borders, but has since become a global emergency. Some commentaries on the connection between the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have portrayed Xi Jinping’s centerpiece foreign policy program as a dangerous vector enabling the pandemic—even though China was engaged in international trade and transportation prior to the commencement of the BRI in 2013 (Foreign Policy, January 24). For its part, state media in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has linked BRI relationships to support for China amid the initial stages of the crisis, citing positive examples of support from media outlets in South Africa, Russia, and Pakistan (People’s Daily, February 20). More recently, as the spread of the disease has abated in China and increased elsewhere, Chinese authorities have sought to illustrate their support, via the “warmth” of the Belt and Road, for current hotspots such as Italy and Iran—while also criticizing the U.S. response to the crisis (Zhejiang News, March 12). Such developments in China’s foreign relations amid the coronavirus outbreak offer a window to assess the effectiveness of the BRI in one of its central goals: namely, expanding the soft power available to the PRC. Applying an understanding of soft power as a state’s ability to induce other states to take actions favorable to its own interests, available evidence across domains related to the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic—such as the issuance of evacuation orders, and restrictions on public transportation—indicates that BRI investments have had only modest success in building China’s soft power. International support for China was piecemeal and rhetorical, leaving China economically and politically isolated. Demonstrating the lack of soft power available to Chinese authorities, the state tabloid Global Times demanded on February 12 that countries that “have completely cut off traffic communications with China” should “reconsider and revoke these practices” (Global Times, February 12).
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1875. Disposing of “Zombies”: Why the Reform of Non-Performing State-Owned Enterprises Has Gotten Even Harder

Author:: April A. Herlevi
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Normally at this time of year, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) government would be holding the large plenary meetings known as the “Two Sessions” (两会, lianghui). China watchers would be monitoring these meetings to assess whether and how the CCP is achieving its 2020 goal of achieving a “moderately prosperous society” (小康社会, xiaokang shehui). However, the COVID-19 outbreak (China Brief, multiple dates) has not only halted key meetings (National People’s Congress, February 27), but has also put into question many of China’s economic goals. This includes key goals discussed at the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held in December 2019, which focused on “three categories of risk: financial, environmental, and external” and “identified six areas of priority for China’s 2020 economic policy agenda” (China Brief, December 31, 2019). The 2019 CEWC meetings identified at least 10 distinct issues to be pursued in order to move China on the path towards a more balanced economy (Xinhua, December 12, 2019). This article will focus on one aspect of China’s efforts to achieve “high-quality development” (高质量发展, gao zhiliang fazhan): the dismantling of “zombie firms” (僵尸企业, jiangshi qiye). CCP efforts to deal with non-performing and debt-ridden “zombies” has been an ongoing effort since at least 2015. The inclusion of policies to reduce non-performing state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the economy follows official guidance set forth in 2016, and several policy actions taken since. First, this article will discuss what “zombie firms” are, and why they are a drag on the economy; second, it will summarize the key policies intended to dismantle zombie firms. It will then examine why zombie firms are so difficult to dismantle, and conclude by noting that the COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting economic losses due to quarantines are likely to further disrupt the ability of provincial governments to deal with non-performing firms and accumulating debt. As a result of these factors, zombie firms are likely to linger for some time to come.
Topic:: Reform, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1876. China’s Other Viral Crisis: African Swine Fever and the State Effort to Stabilize Pork Prices

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Since January, much of the international news coverage surrounding the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been dominated by the story of the COVID-19 outbreak—a previously unknown coronavirus that first manifested in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in early December, and which has since rapidly proliferated throughout China and many other countries throughout the world (China Brief, January 29; Johns-Hopkins University, ongoing). The COVID-19 pandemic has largely crowded out international attention to another viral outbreak that Chinese authorities and farmers have been battling for eighteen months: African Swine Fever (非洲猪瘟, Feizhou Zhuwen), which throughout 2018 and 2019 devastated pig populations in both the PRC and surrounding countries. The virus has caused major disruptions to both supplies and the cost of pork, the primary staple meat in Chinese society. As such, it has had a significant impact on the Chinese economy, and has also given senior officials of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) reason to fear the potential impacts on “social stability” (社会稳定, shehui wending)—the CCP’s perennial overriding domestic concern.
Topic:: Economics, Food Security, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Animals
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1877. China’s Deepening Diplomatic and Economic Engagement in Afghanistan

Author:: Syed Fazl-e Haider
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On February 29, U.S. and Taliban representatives signed the “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan” in Doha, Qatar, which laid out a framework for ending the 18-year old conflict in Afghanistan (U.S. State Department, February 29). Despite skepticism in many quarters regarding the viability of the deal, the negotiations leading to the agreement have been supported by many international actors, to include the government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). On February 18, PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang (耿爽) commented on the U.S.-Taliban negotiations by stating that “China firmly supports the broad and inclusive peace and reconciliation process [and] welcomes the news that the U.S. and the Taliban are expected to reach and sign a deal… China stands ready to step up cooperation with all parties to the Afghan issue and the international community for peace, stability and development in Afghanistan” (PRC Foreign Ministry Briefing, February 18). As the U.S plans to draw down its forces in Afghanistan—a key element of the February 29 deal—China is set to further deepen its involvement in Afghanistan (Nikkei Asian Review, January 14, 2019). Beijing wishes to achieve at least two key objectives. First, it wants once and for all to block any contact between the Taliban and ethnic Uighur Muslim militants seeking independence from China (China Brief, April 24, 2019). Second, the PRC wants long-term stability in Afghanistan in order to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—the flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—to the war-wracked country. Beijing sees Afghanistan as a primary link between the Central Asian republics and the CPEC (China Brief, December 10, 2019). To achieve its objectives, Beijing has pursued positive engagement with the Taliban movement that controls more than half of Afghanistan’s territory. These ties have increased over the past couple of years: for example, in 2019 Taliban representatives paid at least two visits to Beijing (in June and September) for talks with PRC officials (CGTN, June 20, 2019; Al-Jazeera, September 23, 2019).
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Middle East, and Asia

1878. Global Supply Chains, Economic Decoupling, and U.S.-China Relations, Part 1: The View from the United States

Author:: Sagatom Saha and Ashley Feng
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The trade war has defined the current adversarial relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). While President Donald J. Trump has at times openly expressed admiration for Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, his administration has pursued policies consistent with economic and technological decoupling. These policies include reforms that strengthen the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS); greater usage of the export control system, especially the Entity List; and threatening the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to force U.S. companies back to the United States. These policies, taken to their logical end, would see the secular decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies and the rerouting of the global supply chains that bind them. The interim trade deal has done seemingly little to change the structural economic conflict between Beijing and Washington. If economic decoupling came to pass, it would portend a sweeping reorientation of the global economy that many analysts regard as lying outside the bounds of conventional analysis. Yet some Trump administration officials, such as Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Peter Navarro, have promoted economic decoupling as their desired aim (SCMP, June 20, 2018; Forbes, December 3, 2019). President Trump himself has “ordered” American companies to look for alternative suppliers outside of China, or to return production to the United States (Twitter, August 23, 2019). The Trump Administration’s trade and investment restrictions have not been limited to U.S. companies—they also include pressuring third-party countries and foreign companies to abide by U.S. restrictions. Chinese companies are also relocating their manufacturing capabilities abroad—in part because of secular economic trends, but U.S. actions are accelerating the process. Simply put, sustained U.S. policies on China can encourage economic decoupling, but only if global economic trends continue to cooperate. Those policies are nascent, but could likely become a structural feature of the U.S.-China economic relationship—especially since a harder stance towards China has gained traction among both major parties. This has been demonstrated by widespread criticism of Chinese trade practices in both parties, and in bipartisan votes on legislation antagonistic to Beijing, such as the Hong Kong Democracy and Human Rights Act or the UIGHUR Act (see further below). The Trump Administration has pursued a three-pronged approach in breaking down economic supply-chain links: 1) escalating tariffs, which discourages bilateral trade; 2) imposing investment restrictions and export controls that punish tech transfers; and 3) issuing threats to U.S. firms that do business in China under the IEEPA. These current policies preview what could become a new orientation in U.S. policy towards China, regardless of who leads the United States at the beginning of next year.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Conflict, Trade Wars, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1879. The Chinese Charm Offensive Towards Italy as the Coronavirus Crisis Deepens

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: One year ago, Italy was hitting the headlines as Rome became the first G7 country to formally sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China to join the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI (China Brief, April 24, 2019). For Italy-China relations, 2020 would have been in any case a vital year: marking fifty years since the establishment of official diplomatic ties, the Italian President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella was due to visit China by the end of the year, after People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping came to Italy in March 2019 to sign the MoU (La Repubblica, January 17). However, twelve months later, Italy is finding itself facing the worst health and economic crisis it has experienced since World War II—a crisis in which the PRC is playing a number of prominent roles. This global pandemic has been caused by a new strain of coronavirus that emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan (Hubei Province) in late 2019. Officials of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at first tried to cover up the outbreak, before having to admit to its existence (China Brief, January 17; China Brief, January 29). It was just a matter of weeks before this disease started spreading worldwide. Beyond China itself, the country that has faced the most virulent outbreak is Italy: as of March 31, the COVID-19 virus had claimed the lives of 11,591 Italians, while 14,620 have recovered out of 101,739 people who tested positive (Corriere della Sera, March 31). Such a horrific outbreak has thrown Italy into the worst crisis of its republican history, and one of the worst in its unitary history. This crisis soon assumed a multifaceted dimension: it became not merely a public health emergency, but also developed into a political, institutional, economic, security, and even psychological emergency, with entire Italian communities under lockdown for weeks.
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

1880. The Coronavirus Pandemic and the Rise of Chinese Civil Society

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: According to figures provided by People’s Republic of China (PRC) authorities, the COVID-19 pandemic peaked in early March. One day after Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping made his only inspection tour of Wuhan on March 10, the epicenter of the outbreak, official statistics indicated that only eight new cases had appeared in the city—with only 15 new cases in China overall. Also per official figures, on February 25 more newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 originated from outside of China rather than inside the country (WHO, February 26). At least from one perspective, the authority and prestige of Xi seem to have been salvaged to some extent. However, public intellectuals, journalists, whistleblowers and other members of civil society have insisted that if Xi had been forthcoming about the outbreak from day one—and if adequate medical facilities and equipment had been transported to Hubei Province in good time—the number of cases in China would have been significantly lower than 80,000 and that almost certainly, the number of fatalities would have been much less than the official figure of 3,199 as recorded on March 15 (Economic Times, March 15; Straits Times, March 12). At a time when parts of China are under quasi-martial law, Xi has taken this opportunity to hit out at China’s nascent civil society. A large group of intellectuals risked their personal safety to eulogize the contribution of the late Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang (李文亮), who was one of the first whistle blowers to expose the severity of the coronavirus. On December 30, Li was among the first medical professionals to warn of a large virus outbreak; he subsequently fell victim to COVID-19 associated pneumonia and passed away on February 6 (Radio French International, February 20; BBC Chinese Service, February 7). Public intellectuals such as famed law professor Xu Zhangrun (许章润) of Tsinghua University and constitutional expert and activist human rights lawyer Xu Zhiyong (许志永) have disappeared (Chinese PEN, February 20; Radio Free Asia, February 19). Meetings of institutions of civil society, such as both the legally recognized and the underground churches, have also been suppressed in the name of curtailing public gatherings (Christian Times (HK), March 20). The police state apparatus also took advantage of the quasi-curfew atmosphere to mete out a ten-year jail term to Hong Kong’s Causeway Bay bookseller Gui Minhai (桂敏海), who was first detained in Thailand in 2015 for publishing a rash of books deemed embarrassing to the CCP’s red aristocracy. While Gui has nothing to do with the pandemic, his heavy sentence seemed a warning to intellectuals who dare expose the party’s treatment of advocates of freedom of expression (HKEJ.com, February 25; Apple Daily, February 25).
Topic:: Civil Society, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1881. Military Activity and Political Signaling in the Taiwan Strait in Early 2020

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On March 16, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force aircraft conducted a set of unusual nighttime sorties over the sea to the southwest of Taiwan. At least one KJ-500 airborne early warning and control (AEWC) aircraft and an undisclosed number of J-11 FLANKER-L jet fighters participated in the mission, and at one point crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which prompted a scramble by Republic of China Air Force (ROCAF) F-16 fighters in response (Focus Taiwan, March 17; Taipei Times, March 18). Although the nature of the mission was unusual—this marked the first time that PLA aircraft flew in the vicinity of Taiwan at night—the incident was otherwise consistent with a pattern of increasingly provocative naval and military aviation operations conducted in the vicinity of Taiwan by PLA units in the first quarter of 2020. This uptick in tactical military activity has been accompanied by more assertive rhetoric from People’s Republic of China (PRC) media outlets and spokespersons since the landslide reelection of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Wen (蔡英文) on January 11 (China Brief, January 17). These military operations (see further discussion below) have also taken place as PRC officials and citizens have scrambled to cope with the social, economic, and political impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic that first manifested in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in December (Jamestown, ongoing). This suggests that senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials wish to project the message that the crisis has not inhibited the PLA’s capabilities to defeat Taiwan “separatism”—and may further wish to use such operations to assert an image of strength in the face of the internal crisis produced by the pandemic.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

1882. The PLA Navy’s ZHANLAN Training Series: Supporting Offensive Strike on the High Seas

Author:: Roderick Lee
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In early 2020, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) conducted the fifth iteration of its “ZHANLAN” far seas training series (Ministry of National Defense, February 2, 2019). [1] The PLAN established ZHANLAN in 2016 as an annual far seas training event, with each iteration growing in complexity (Ministry of National Defense, May 27, 2016). Live fire and combat training often draws the most attention during such PLA training events, but the critical highlight of ZHANLAN-2020A was the training focus on combat support, rather than kinetic operations. The key takeaway from this training event is that the PLAN is developing the proficiencies to sustain limited offensive strikes against U.S. forces—perhaps as far out as Hawaii. This article argues that the PLAN is close to being able to execute offensive naval operations outside of the first island chain (and perhaps beyond the second island chain) in a wartime environment. The PLA has long discussed the concept of conducting offensive naval operations beyond the first island chain, and by comparing observables from the ZHANLAN-2020A training event with the list of proficiencies necessary to conduct deep strike, the PLAN is likely close to operationalizing this concept. The ZHANLAN-2020A training task force consisted of four vessels: DONGDIAO-class AGI (AGI-857); FUYU class (Type 901) support ship CHAGAN HU (查干湖) (AOR-967); LUYANG III class (Type 052D) guided missile destroyer HOHHOT (DDG-161); and JIANGKAI II guided missile frigate XIANNING (FFG-500). A fifth vessel, the ocean-going tug NANTUO-195 (南拖-195), took part in a limited role during the task force’s return journey.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1883. Mind the Trap: What Basing Rights in Djibouti and Sri Lanka Reveal About the Limitations of Debt as a Tool of Chinese Military Expansion

Author:: Scott Wingo
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On November 24, 2019, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa told reporters during his first interview as president that he hoped to renegotiate the terms of the deal that gave a Chinese firm a 99-year lease over the Hambantota Port (Strategic News International, November 24, 2019). The port had been handed over as Sri Lanka struggled to make loan payments on the loss-making Chinese-built facility—thereby leading to debates as to whether the People’s Republic of China (PRC) had set a “debt trap” by intentionally lending Sri Lanka more than it could afford to repay, in hopes of eventually foreclosing on the port (China Brief, January 5, 2019). The subtext was that with a leasehold in hand, the PRC could use the port as a naval installation geared toward patrolling Indian Ocean shipping lanes. As can be observed by the Sri Lankan government’s desire to renegotiate, this has not happened. To the contrary, Sri Lankan security policy has trended against China since the debt-equity swap occurred. A comparison with Djibouti, where the PRC has established its only overseas military base to date, illuminates how this came to pass. In both Djibouti and Sri Lanka, Beijing has used infrastructure loans as a means to entice political leaders to allow naval access. However, three factors led to very different outcomes: 1) the recipient countries’ inherent willingness to host a base; 2) the degree of political competition faced by recipient leaders; and 3) the degree to which recipient leaders can diversify toward different sources of funding to reduce overreliance on China.
Topic:: Debt, Imperialism, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1884. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor: Delays Ahead

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Although no new deals were struck during People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping’s trip to Myanmar on January 17 and 18, the visit was significant for several reasons. The visit was the first by a PRC president to Myanmar in 19 years, and the first by Xi to this country in his role as president. The visit was widely touted as marking the 70th anniversary of the establishment of relations between the PRC and Myanmar. However, Xi’s first trip abroad this year was aimed at expediting implementation of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a key component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (CGTN, January 17). During the visit, the two governments signed 33 agreements, memorandums of understanding, protocols and letters of exchange relating to railways, industrial and power projects, and trade. Several of these agreements firm up Myanmar’s commitment to the CMEC’s three central components: the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ), which includes a deep-sea port, an industrial park and other projects; the China-Myanmar Border Economic Cooperation Zone; and an urban development plan for Yangon (The Irrawaddy, January 18). However, just weeks after Xi’s visit saw the two sides take steps to expedite CMEC projects, Beijing’s plans have run into new problems. CMEC projects are running late, and in an op-ed piece published on the eve of his Myanmar visit, Xi stressed the need for CMEC projects to be moved from “the conceptual stage to concrete planning and implementation” (New Light of Myanmar, January 16). The coronavirus pandemic has emerged as the latest challenge in the long list of obstacles that have slowed CMEC projects over the years. According to Khriezo Yhome, a New Delhi-based analyst of developments in Myanmar, it “may be too early to assess the impact of the coronavirus crisis on CMEC projects,” given that the pandemic is still only at an “initial phase” in Myanmar; however, there is “no doubt” that it “will slow down the implementation of CMEC projects in the short-term.” [1]
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

1885. Responding to the Epidemic in Wuhan: Insights into Chinese Military Logistics

Author:: Joel Wuthnow
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has portrayed its response to the novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan in heroic terms: battling against an insidious enemy, PLA personnel courageously and tirelessly helped to mitigate the disaster in the epidemic-ravaged city. The PLA has even made the amazing (and highly improbable) claim that it accomplished this while suffering zero infections within its own ranks (China Military Online, March 3). Despite the hype, the crisis has provided an opportunity for the PLA’s newly reformed logistics system to test its ability to mobilize resources in exigent circumstances. The Joint Logistic Support Force (联勤保障部队, Lianqin Baozhang Budui) or JLSF, which was created in September 2016 as part of Xi Jinping’s larger overhaul of the military, has been at the forefront of the PLA’s response. [1] The JLSF’s role in Wuhan illuminated several key strengths of the PLA logistics system—including centralized control, effective use of information technology, and civil-military coordination—while also suggesting potential deficiencies. At a minimum, the crisis likely resulted in “lessons learned” that could improve the JLSF’s role in supporting commanders during wartime.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Leadership, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1886. Epidemic-Related Unrest and the CCP’s Reinforced Political Loyalty Indoctrination for China’s Police

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The central Chinese city of Wuhan, in Hubei Province, was the original epicenter from which the COVID-19 viral outbreak first emerged in November-December 2019. Hubei Province was placed under a strict lockdown in mid-January that lasted for over two months (China Brief, January 29). On March 25, authorities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced the lifting of most travel restrictions for residents of Hubei Province, with the exception of Wuhan City itself (Xinhua, March 25). (Restrictions for residents of Wuhan were later eased on April 8). However, the lifting of these restrictions has not proceeded entirely smoothly. On March 27, a major social disturbance occurred on the bridge over the Yangzi River that connects the town of Xiaochi in far eastern Hubei with the town of Jiujiang in northern Jiangxi Province. On that Friday, Hubei residents attempted to cross the bridge, but were blocked by police from the Jiangxi side. A tense stand-off escalated into a riot that reportedly involved not only citizens and police, but also clashes between police from the two bordering provinces (see accompanying images) (Radio Free Asia, March 27). Regional tensions were revealed in video of the incident, in which angry citizens could clearly be heard to chant “Let’s go, Hubei” (湖北加油, Hubei jiayou) when marching to confront barricades set up by Jiangxi police (HK Free Press, March 27). The police barricades were presumably ordered by Jiangxi officials—acting in apparent contravention of official national policy—who were fearful that an influx of people from Hubei could once more spread COVID-19 infections. This likely revealed skepticism on the part of regional officials towards the central government’s message that the epidemic has been contained in Hubei. It also revealed issues of fear and discrimination against Hubei persons on the part of Chinese from other provinces, a problem acknowledged in official PRC press outlets (China Daily, March 30). The March 27 incident provided a dramatic example of the sort of social unrest that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials have clearly feared could materialize in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths inside China and across the globe. [1] Hubei citizens have been subject to harsh conditions under government quarantines, resulting in a steady build-up of popular anger (China Brief, April 1). This incident may not be the last of its type to emerge as a result of the pandemic, and the CCP has taken active steps over the past two months to reinforce political indoctrination for local police agencies—thereby attempting to ensure that police officers will remain loyal to the ruling party in the event of any major incidents that might threaten “social order and stability” (社会治安稳定, shehui zhi’an wending) in the country.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Police, Police State, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1887. Changes in Consumer Behavior Of Gen Y’ers in Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:: Cemal Aksoy and Ahu Ergen
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: The economic challenges in different countries from past to present have global effects affecting the whole consumers. Today, especially young consumers are at the centre of the economy and understanding their consumer behaviour deeply in especially economically challenging days such as this pandemic of COVID-19 enables companies to make the right decisions. In this study, the effects of the economic challenges and the changes in the consumer behaviour of Generation Y’ers in the COVID-19 pandemic are examined both theoretically and practically. This study was conducted with 12 consumers from Generation Y living in Istanbul. The analysis shows that they prefer cheap and discounted products. They are more careful about spending money and they avoid extravagance. The results show that consumers are negatively affected by the economic consequences of COVID-19.
Topic:: Economics, Interview, COVID-19, Generation Y, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

1888. Turkey’s Membership Process In a Multi-Speed European Union

Author:: Ekrem Yaşar Akçay and İdris Turan
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: The European Union, established after World War II, has strengthened the revival of Europe, which has suffered greatly due to the war in many areas, including economic, political and socio-cultural. At the same time, the European Union overtook the conflicts between states. The European Union, which has occasionally passed through major breaks since its foundation, has recently begun to evolve into a new structure called multispeed Europe. On the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome, the member states, for the first time, have mentioned this new structure in an official publication. This structure has led to disagreements 13 among EU member states. On the other hand, it is also a matter of curiosity how the candidate countries will follow once this structure is created. This study assesses the potential effects of a a multi-speed European Union on Turkey-EU relations. In addition, it tries to evaluate whether the EU’s new structure will be an advantage for Turkey or not. In other words, this study aims to explore the possibility of Turkey’s EU full membership in the EU’s new model.
Topic:: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

1889. Foreign Market Entry Mode Choice In Service Firms: a Business Model Perspective

Author:: Alptegin Albayraktaroğlu
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: The topic of foreign market entry in service sector could benefit from a more granular approach, since the business model (BM) employed varies greatly across different types of services. It is argued that this in turn would affect the internationalization strategy to be employed in each service case. In this paper, services are classified along three dimensions (inseparability, capital intensity, degree of customization), and propositions are developed regarding the right foreign market entry mode for each of the eight service variations. The propositions are grounded in business model and general strategic management theories, since it is argued that service firms design their activity systems in host countries via tradeoffs between adjustment costs and transaction costs involved. As the service classification defines the nature of these costs for the focal firm, previous findings regarding the choice of foreign market entry mode reflects BM designs to optimize such costs. The scientific value of this paper is the introduction of the business model concept as a new perspective for research on decision making in service firm internationalization.
Topic:: Business, Internationalization, Foreign Market Entry, and Service Marketing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1890. The New Institutionalism: A tool for analysing defence and security institutions

Author:: Valerijs Bodnieks
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this paper is to investigate new institutionalism, its trends and their application in the analysis of security and defence institutions. The research is based on an analysis of theoretical literature to explore a system of assumptions about new institutionalism. Different approaches have been examined, including historical, rational choice, and sociological approaches. Historical institutionalism can be applied to identify the usefulness of past decisions, policy choices, appropriate strategy choices, and specific acquisitions for future policymakers, whereas rational choice institutionalism allows us to determine the influence of security and defence institutions on actors and their choices, how actors use the institutional framework for their own benefit, and how actors’ choices influence the state policy. Finally, sociological institutionalism focuses on recognising actors’ cognitive scripts and the changes they undergo, as well as causes that influence and determine cognitive scripts. Defence institutions are based on a precise regulative and normative framework and cognitive scripts of the highest authorities. Therefore, the external framework and the particular political impact on the supranational level can cause changes on the national level. New institutionalism provides an important perspective on the specifics of security and defence policy, actors’ individual and collective goals, their strategies and interests as well as cognitive scripts.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Institutions, and Rational Choice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1891. Assessment of the effectiveness of the security features of personal wireless networks

Author:: Janusz Gierszewski and Michał Matuśkiewicz
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Wireless network communication standards have become very common due to the huge benefits of their application. The use of radio waves to create networks has reduced infrastructure costs and increased the mobility of devices. The advantages of wireless communication (WLAN) also pose a challenge to the security of transmitted data. However, the use of a wireless signal poses certain threats to network security. The aim of the study was to analyse problems related to the security of WLAN 802.11. and assess its resistance to various attack strategies. It was assumed that wireless networks have an insufficient level of security. The assumed assumption is verifiable due to the ability to monitor events in networks. In order to verify the hypothesis, a number of experiments have been carried out in laboratory conditions, concerning the currently used WLAN protections from the IEEE 802.11 family of standards. The electromagnetic waves used for communication are available to the public at a distance of a few / several dozen metres from the communicating devices. It is easy to monitor air traffic using a network card that operates in monitor mode. The communication itself cannot be secured in any way, so data encryption is one way of secure transmission. During the research, the applied security features were successfully broken with the help of publicly available tools. The obtained results are distinguished by a high level of objectivity and reliability in the assessment of applied wireless network security. It was shown that there are still imperfections in the security and it is possible to break the security measures. The consequences of attacks are very serious and lead to a breach of each of the attributes of secure information. Practice has shown that it is impossible to create a wireless network that is fully secure. The findings of the study should be used to develop methods to improve information security, as well as to raise users’ awareness of existing threats. Not all users of wireless networks are aware of how easy some of the commonly used security features are to break.
Topic:: Security, Cybersecurity, and Networks
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1892. COVID-19 as a prestige-promoting mechanism: PESCO framework as an opportunity for EU member states

Author:: Valerijs Bodnieks and Sintija Broka
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The goal of this study is to identify whether PESCO can be one of the tools for future projects in medicine and whether it can be used to strengthen the military medicine of the EU and, simultaneously, be in synergy with the civilian sector by providing support to the civilian field, and, finally, can EU member states increase their prestige through PESCO. The study, which is based on qualitative research methods, shows that based on Latvia’s case, strengthening the medical field by participating in PESCO can lead to countries promoting their prestige on the international stage, as well as strengthening civil-military cooperation to build much stronger policies within the EU member states. Firstly, the findings showed that from all 47 PESCO projects, only two are related to the field of medicine. Secondly, with the whole world being affected by COVID-19, PESCO can be used for new projects related to the field of medicine. Thirdly, different types of projects can be initiated under PESCO, for example, a new kind of transport for evacuation, new types of medical devices, the creation of new regional laboratories and research centres, development of new analytical and biotechnological equipment, improvement of logistic chains, the establishment of unique and specific training institutions for civilian and military medics, and the development and use of robotic technologies or drones. Finally, countries that engage in epidemiological security measures during COVID 19 are clearly enhancing their prestige by not only demonstrating their readiness to react to the current situation, but also by taking practical action.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Realism, COVID-19, and PESCO
Political Geography:: Europe

1893. Fitness OSINT: Identifying and tracking military and security personnel with fitness applications for intelligence gathering purposes

Author:: Cyprian Aleksander Kozera
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the possibility of tracking and identifying military and other security personnel, operating in secretive or restricted areas. Such exposure might have dire consequences from the perspective of counterintelligence or physical security. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and Social Media Intelligence methods and techniques were employed to gather and analyse information on security and military personnel and expose their activities on-line. The case studies presented in the article exemplify utilisation of the new “Suunto” fitness application for open-source-based intelligence research. Despite general Operational Security rules that require all personal data such as names, pictures and habits to be kept discreet, open-source based research with one of the most popular fitness applications allowed the identification of military personnel and government agents operating in Afghanistan, Mali, Syria or working at national military facilities. In a single case, it took the author less than thirty minutes to identify personal details of a US Army soldier in Afghanistan and a Special Forces officer in one of the European countries and obtain their home addresses and pictures of them and their families. The results of the research show how OSINT techniques concerning fitness applications are useful both for intelligence and counterintelligence, specifically for malicious and terrorist purposes, and how necessary it is to make fitness and other, supposedly personal, activity private, especially for those who carry out sensitive missions and work in a restricted or secretive environment.
Topic:: Intelligence, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and OSINT
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Syria, Mali, and Global Focus

1894. Testing the efficiency of laser technology to destroy the rogue drones

Author:: Mohamed Zied Chaari and Somaya Al-Maadeed
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: A large body of research shows the increasing numbers of drones attacks despite RF jammer systems and other technologies. This incredible increase in drone attacks means that the existing solutions are not enough to stop it. The objective of the article is to present a study on the combination of a laser beam with an optical focusing system to create a new cannon to crush rogue drones. The experimental method relies on an innovative design incorporating a laser module and groups of optical lenses to focus the power in one point to carbonize any target. Specifically, it is the laser with an adjustable lens position from 477mm to 617mm to focus the laser beam on the desired distant object. We measured the necessary time to burnt acrylic plastic, wood, and hard carton from a distance of 55 metres. It was noticed that the laser efficiency is proportional to the laser power and time the cannon is turned on. Tests on the laser cannon revealed that laser burner technology can destroy illegal drones. However, it was found that the laser is affected by adverse weather conditions, such as fog, rain, and clouds. Apart from that, the frailty of this technique is connected with the stabilizing system requirements, energy, overheating, and the time needed to destroy an object. Regardless of the drawbacks of the technique, the laser is the only solution with high efficiency that can ruin or intercept autonomously programmed drones, as this cannot be achieved by the RF jammer or any other solutions. The procedure can be repeated with new changeables to achieve a postive result, specifically, the use CO2 laser tube with a high-efficiency chiller to increase the laser power.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Weapons, Drones, and Laser Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1895. The Hellenic air – space violations by Turkish aircraft: A statistical assessment and a forecast

Author:: Vasileios Symeonidis and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper aims to assess the extent to which repeated attacks against sovereign Hellenic air space by Turkey along with the inevitably ensuing engagements between aircraft of the two sides follow a certain predetermined pattern of behaviour that can be detected based on a given statistical model, and if so, to what extent this pattern is predictable in terms of its intensity and the frequency of incidents. To this end, we use the Weibull statistical distribution as an appropriate tool for interpreting and quantifying the pattern of aggressive Turkish behaviour and calculating probabilities of occurrences. Based on this choice, we then proceed with a forecast of this behaviour in the near future. We provide specific mathematical formulae that can be readily used to calculate probabilities and forecast air space violations and engagements. Our models, based on historical data, assume that both Hellenic air space violations and engagement incidents will keep increasing but will inevitably reach a monthly maximum, constrained by the availability of property and human resources on the Turkish side. The conclusions drawn point to the fact that Turkey will at some point in the near future reach its capacity limits in terms of property and human resources used in such offensive exercises, and that there is very little that can be done to enhance the margins of such activities given the room provided by the Turkish economy, which seem to be prohibitive
Topic:: Security, Military Affairs, Airspace, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:: Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

1896. Operational control over non-state proxies

Author:: Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The intention of this paper is to clarify how state patrons control non-state proxy forces fighting on their behalf. In order to address the subject matter thoroughly, specific attention was paid to a number of questions including a) the criteria determining patronproxy relations, b) factors influencing the selection process of proxy forces, and c) principles governing the maximisation of potential benefits of using proxies, whilst simultaneously reducing risks and associated costs. The author applied a neo-realistic research paradigm to his work. Patron-proxy relations were presented in the context of the principal-agent theory, as well as through detailed analysis of ongoing scenarios involving Iran and Hezbollah, Russia and the Donbass separatists, Pakistan and Kashmiri militias, the US and Syrian rebels. The essence of war by proxy is to influence the strategic result of an armed conflict without direct, full-scale, military intervention. The use of non-state proxy, external actors is aimed at maximising their political goals and strategic interests whilst maintaining “plausible deniability”. By supporting non-state proxies, indirectly or by providing limited direct assistance, sponsors operate below the threshold of war. Empirical analysis of proxy war cases proves that such models may both guarantee “strategic victory” or become a “double-edged sword”. One of the key challenges for external powers engaged in war by proxy is to avoid unintended consequences (blowback). The author argues that elements such as ideology, ethnicity or religion do not necessarily ensure control over proxies, whilst the range of common goals and interests, and the level of the proxy’s dependency, are crucial.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Special Operations, Proxy War, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1897. “Sweat is invisible in the rain”: Civilian Joint Task Force and counter-insurgency in Borno State, Nigeria

Author:: Seun Bamidele
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Political, ethnic and religious conflict has given rise to insurgency groups employing a variety of strategies worldwide. In Nigeria, civilians in strife-torn Borno State have formed a number of counter-insurgency (COIN) groups, among which the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) has emerged as a major player. The group began in 2009 as a simple call for volunteers, and now numbers over 26 000 men and women. While research has been conducted on other COIN groups, little is known of CJTF. Concerns have been raised about the CJTF metamorphosing into an ethnic militia, accused of human rights abuses, robbery, rape and hooliganism. Despite these reported atrocities, local people support them, regarding them as unsung heroes. The study investigates the group’s potential as a useful counter insurgency measure, using David Galula’s COIN theory to analyse the group’s actions and to contest the dualistic understanding of conventional vs unconventional, local peacebuilding approaches. The study adopts a qualitative, ethnographic methodology, locating the research in the context of global development and security discourse. The study aims to establish the value of the CJTF COIN group, to position unconventional local COIN as a viable complementary to conventional methods and to proffer clues as to how security initiatives may more successfully combat Islamic insurgency in Nigeria. The study employed both primary and secondary data. Field work for the study was carried out for six months between 2018 and 2019 in Maiduguri Metropolis and its environs in Borno State.
Topic:: Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

1898. Countering terrorism in the shadows: The role of private security and military companies

Author:: Iveta Hlouchova
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The article identifies the main features of the PSMCs’ involvement in counterterrorism operations and outlines what their future involvement might look like with its implications for international peace and security. The main methods used to gather data and to draw inferences are a content analysis of relevant primary and secondary sources, and a discourse analysis, used as a method of examining the prevailing discourse surrounding the activities of PSMCs, seeking to understand the level of transparency, accountability and attributability of these actors. So far, the PSMCs’ potential for counterterrorism has not been fully exploited. There are many challenges surrounding the existence and operations of PSMCs, mainly lack of transparency and accountability, the continuous significance of the plausible deniability and political expediency PSMCs provide to nation governments, and an insufficient and inadequate international regulatory and control framework with no sanction or enforcement mechanisms. Most recently, the tendency to re-legitimise PSMCs’ activities can be identified. There will most probably be an expansion of PSMCs’ activities in the near future, as climate change consolidates security as a commodity, not a right. Therefore, there is a renewed urgency for adequate and effective international regulatory and control mechanisms on their activities on the international level.
Topic:: Security, Privatization, Counter-terrorism, Regulation, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1899. Turkey’s approach to proxy war in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The last decade has seen a growing trend towards the use of proxies in the Middle East and North Africa following the outbreak of the Arab Spring. In this context, the issue of Turkey’s approach to proxy war in these regions has received considerable attention since 2016. Thereby, the purpose of this article is to investigate the essential characteristics of Turkish proxy war strategy in Syria and Libya. As such, this study intends to trace the development of Turkish proxy war strategy by making use of the conceptual frameworks proposed by Groh (2019), O’Brien (2012) and Art (1998). The most obvious finding to emerge from the analysis is that Turkey changed its indirect intervention strategy from donated assistance to proxy warfare in Syria and Libya when it saw a greater need to influence the result of the conflicts. In the case of Syria, this study has shown that the controlthrough-centralisation approach towards the Armed Syrian Opposition has enabled Turkey to carry out an effective proxy war strategy from 2016 onwards. In Libya, the results of this investigation have shown that theTurkish Army has pursued a proxy war strategy since Ankara and the Government of National Accord (GNA) signed an agreement on security and military cooperation in December 2019. The article concludes that Turkey has centralised many revolutionary groups under an Islamist-nationalistic vision and partnered them with its own military in order to expand its influence in the Middle East and North Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria

1900. FARC–Hezbollah: The success of Venezuela–Iran proxy groups and their convergence in the Americas

Author:: Jeferson Guarin P.
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Persistence and adaptation are the main characteristics that have allowed FARC and Hezbollah to become perhaps the most successful proxy groups in recent years. Both Iran and Venezuela have sponsored the military, political and criminal actions of these alleged insurgent organisations. The main objective of this research was to identify and conceptualise the mitotic evolution of FARC and Hezbollah from purely armed organisms into consolidated political organisations in Colombia and Lebanon, and how this evolution has presented a criminal convergence in Venezuela based on drug trafficking and money laundering. This article is based on a comparative case-study of published research papers, documents, and official statements of FARC and Hezbollah, by applying a rational perspective that allows their performance to be deduced. The research results showed a constant mutation of these hybrid threats. Thus, not only was the political and military success of these organisations established but also the strategic support of a criminal dimension which converged in Venezuela, where the FARC drug trafficking and Hezbollah money laundering were amalgamated. Consequently, the investigation exposes the possible consequences of the FARC-Hezbollah criminal convergence in the Americas and its destabilising effects in the next decade.
Topic:: Narcotics Trafficking, Hezbollah, Drugs, FARC, Destabilization, Money Laundering, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:: Iran, South America, and Venezuela

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