Content Type: Journal Article / Publication Year: within 3 Years

1501. Elections and Democratic Deficits in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic: A Commentary

Author:: Al-Chukwuma Okoli, Chigozie Joseph Nebeife, and Markus Arum Izang
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: This study examines elections and democratic deficit in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. The essence is to interrogate the seemingly ironic reversals of democratic tenets in the processes of politics and governance, even as the country democratizes. The paper contends that Nigeria’s experience with democracy has largely amounted to nominal civilianizing, in view of the fact that what is on course has not fulfilled minimal requirements of the democratic order
Topic:: Government, Elections, Democracy, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

1502. Trust in Political Power and Government Institutions in Mozambique: 2014-2018

Author:: Kátia Sara Henriques Xavier Zeca
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The purpose of this article is to understand voters’ confidence in the institutions of political power in Mozambique. The question that arises is what is the level of voter confidence in the institutions of political power? For the purposes of this research, the following political institutions were considered: Assembly of the Republic, National Election Commission (CNE, in Portuguese), Police, Army and Judicial Courts. Throughout the text, the CNE is emphasized because it is the institution responsible for managing the entire electoral process. And because the article is based around the issues of trust and democratization, some concepts will be discussed here that will support the conclusions presented: institutions, democratization, consolidated democracy.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Democracy, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

1503. The Influence of Diplomacy on Controversies: A Comparative Study Between Diplomatic Mediation and Armed Conflict

Author:: Cícero Ricci Cavini
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: International Security developed after the World War II, under the aspect of state protection. Traditional security currents have developed their theories in a Cold War environment, thus, there are epistemological elements of Rationalism and Positivism (Barrinha 2013; Lasmar 2017). The goal of this study is to observe the influence of diplomacy on international controversies, analyze real situations where diplomacy influenced the mediation choice and the armed conflict choice, and finally, deepen the knowledge of the consequences of war and mediation. The article has its theoretical framework on Post-Structuralism, characterized by Lasmar (2017) by the conditioning of the human being as meaning and attributor of the facts (social construction). In the International Security sphere, Post-Structuralism must nominate the threat or the protection as also the means for this. Therefore, it can expose the hidden intentions in the act of political construction (including political speech). The authors and researchers Christer Jönsson and Karin Aggestam question the preference of the states for mediation or war, and, given that, we intend to contribute with analysis under the diplomatic prism. Thus, we can align the revisited theory to the diplomatic actions, collaborating with the international security system.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Brazil and Global Focus

1504. The Dominance of Terrorism: Aspects of the Socio-Political Challenges in Post-Independence West AfricA: Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali

Author:: Osiomheyalo O. Idaewor
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The West African countries, namely, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali, all gained independence in 1960. Since the attainment of independence, these countries have continued to witness peculiar socio-political and economic challenges. These include the contemporary menace of terrorist groups such as the Boko Haram, ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province), and their local and international affiliates. These challenges had been precipitated by both local and external socio-political and economic dynamics in the sub-region. Apparently, the challenge of terrorism has intensified in a way that it has overshadowed and compounded existing challenges in West Africa in the contemporary period. [...] Placed in perspectives, this paper gives an overview of the linkage between the post-colonial and post-independence periods, thereby under-scoring the contemporary intensification of terrorism. It further examines the contributions of the UN, ECOWAS, MINUSMA, G5-Sahel and other interventionists’ initiatives towards the development of the sub-region. It concludes by proffering some prospects for development.
Topic:: Security, Political Economy, Post Colonialism, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, Nigeria, Mali, and Burkina Faso

1505. Main Trends of Terrorism in Africa Towards 2025

Author:: Yoslán Silverio González
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The article is divided in: a methodological and theoretical framework to explain the prospective method used and some ideas about the discussion of terrorism and how to understand it. The second part of the paper focuses on the scenarios, taking into account the development of organizations such as: Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its related groups, Boko Haram (BH) in the area surrounding the Lake Chad, as well as Al-Shabaab (ALS) in southern Somalia and the border with Kenya. We finalized with a generalization of terrorism in Africa – conclusions – and the possible recommendation to solve this problem.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Terrorism, History, Violent Extremism, Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, and Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sahel

1506. African Marxist Military Regimes, Rise and Fall: Internal Conditioners and International Dimensions

Author:: Paulo Fagundes Visentini
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The historical dimension is used in a limited or selective way in the analysis of contemporary international relations, and it needs to be developed. Recovering the theme and the period from 1970-1980 means, therefore, both a historical and a theoretical matter. International Relations, as an area dominated by political science, has been a field of study marked by theorizations with little empirical basis and instrumental character. Without the State building, of ruling elites and social transformations promoted by revolutionary processes, the situation of Angola, Mozambique and Ethiopia, for example, would not have allowed their current international prominence.
Topic:: International Relations, Socialism/Marxism, Authoritarianism, and History
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Angola

1507. Brazil-Africa Relations: From the Slave Nexus to the Construction of Strategic Partnerships

Author:: Analúcia Danilevicz Pereira
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: ontinent overcame rhetoric and gained new force with the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva government. The particular attention payed to these relations reflects an old aspiration of Brazil, that until then had not been pursued with determination. The historical bonds, the country’s large population of afro-descendants and the internal debate on racial equality, are elements in the Brazilian view regarding the need for rapprochement and cooperation. Even though Africa is a continent with alarming poverty indexes, it is not a stagnant one. The dynamism and development of “African” alternatives for its own problems define the stance of many of its leaderships.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Diplomacy, History, Partnerships, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Africa and Brazil

1508. The Cultural Reflections on the Middle Eastern Geopolitics: An Assessment on the Cultural Heritage | Ortadoğu Jeopolitiğinde Kültürel Yansımalar: Kültürel Miras Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Author:: Senem Atvur
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: The territory known as the Fertile Crescent is located at the eastern part of the Mediterranean Basin. This region, where the agriculture was developed, the first human settlements started, arts and culture were shaped, is now called the Middle East. The concept of the “Middle East” had started to be used at the beginning of the 20th century, when imperialist politics had spread worldwide. Due to the common use of the Middle East concept, the region was defined with a Western-centric perspective. This identification has played an essential role in the interpretation of Middle Eastern with Western concepts and on the construction of the cultural hegemony in the region. The stereotypes created by the West and adopted by the regional actors have caused homogenisation of the cultural diversity in the Middle East. Hence, the powerful actors of the international system could expand their zone of influence in the region. This study focuses on the importance of the area called the Middle East in the history of humanity and on the cultural heritage of this region. It is argued that to break the geopolitical interests of great actors in the region; the Middle East should reconcile with its cultural history and a new image of the Middle East based on common cultural heritage. | Tarımın geliştiği, yerleşik hayatın başladığı, yazının ve sanatın şekillendiği, Akdeniz Havzası’nın doğusunda kalan ve Bereketli Hilal olarak anılan topraklar bugün Ortadoğu olarak adlandırılmaktadır. “Ortadoğu” kavramı, 20. yüzyıl başlarında, emperyalist politikaların yaygınlaştığı dönemde kullanılmaya başlamıştır. Ortadoğu kavramının kullanımının yaygınlık kazanması, bölgenin Batı merkezli bakış açısıyla tanımlanması sonucunu da beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu durum Ortadoğu kültürlerinin Batılı tanımlar üzerinden yorumlanması ve bölgede kültürel hegemonyanın inşasında rol oynamıştır. Batı’nın yarattığı Ortadoğulu stereotipinin bölge içinde de kabulü, bölgenin kültürel çeşitliliğini tektipleştirici bir etki yaratmış; bu durum Ortadoğu coğrafyasında, uluslararası sistemin güçlü aktörlerinin etki alanlarını genişletmesini sağlamıştır. Bu çalışma Ortadoğu olarak adlandırılan coğrafyanın insanlık tarihinde üstlendiği rol ile sahip olduğu kültürel birikimin önemine odaklanmaktadır. Çalışmada uluslararası aktörlerin bölgeye ilişkin jeopolitik çıkarlarının kırılması yönünde Ortadoğu’nun kültürel geçmişi ile barışması ve ortak kültürel miras üzerine inşa edilen yeni bir Ortadoğu imgesinin gerekliliğine vurgu yapılmaktadır.
Topic:: Culture, Geopolitics, Heritage, and Identity
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

1509. The Role of the Army in Politics in Latin America and Turkey during the Cold War | Soğuk Savaş Döneminde Latin Amerika ve Türkiye’de Ordunun Siyasetteki Rolü

Author:: Tuğba Ergezen and Ceren Uysal Oğuz
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: The armies as one of the proponents of the constant progress and transformation of humanity, continue to exist in parallel to the concept of security of which the meaning, the scope and the parameters evolve continuously. From conquests to independence wars and the protection of the states' territorial integrity, the armies have been functioning as guardians against external threats and internal ones stemming from political crises, social unrest, and economic instabilities. Moreover, during the Cold War, the United States used the armies of less developed and developing countries to overthrow elected leaders to establish anti-communist governments that would work in accordance with the US. This article aims to discuss the common and similar points between Turkey and Latin American countries that have experienced coups and military interventions during the Cold War period. In this respect, the similar political, economic and military reasons that led to the armies’ involvement in politics through coups and interventions are argued even though these countries have historical, cultural, administrative and social differences. | İnsanlığın gelişim ve değişim sürecinin bileşenlerinden biri olan ordular, anlam, kapsam ve parametreleri sürekli dönüşen güvenlik kavramına paralel olarak varlıklarını sürdürmektedir. Fetihlerden bağımsızlık mücadelelerine ve ülke topraklarını korumaya kadar farklı görevler üstlenen orduların, dışarıdan gelen tehditlerin yanı sıra, çeşitli siyasi krizler, toplumsal hareketler ve ekonomik istikrarsızlıklar gibi “iç tehditlere” karşı bir mekanizma olarak da kullanılması söz konusu olmuştur. Öte yandan özellikle Soğuk Savaş döneminde az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde orduların, seçilmiş yönetimleri devirerek ABD’nin istediği anti-komünist yönetimlerin işbaşına gelmesini sağlamakta kullanılması da oldukça sık görülen bir olgu haline gelmiştir. Kendilerine özgü tarihsel, kültürel, idari ve toplumsal birtakım farklılıklara sahip olmakla birlikte, Soğuk Savaş döneminde ABD’nin de etkisiyle benzer ekonomik, siyasi ve askeri süreçlerden geçen Latin Amerika ülkeleri ve Türkiye arasında orduların siyasetteki rolü, darbelerin arkasında yatan temel faktörler gibi ortak bazı unsurlar bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Soğuk Savaş döneminde çok sayıda askeri müdahalenin yaşandığı Latin Amerika ülkeleri ve Türkiye’nin coğrafi uzaklıklarına karşın ortak deneyimlerine yön veren benzer faktörlerin tartışılmasıdır.
Topic:: Cold War, History, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and Army
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Latin America, and United States of America

1510. Religion and Empire: Islam as a Structural Force in the Umayyad and the Ottoman Empires

Author:: Murat Ülgül
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: What is the relationship between religion and empire, and what role do religious ideas play in the empire-formation process? This paper focuses on these questions by analysing the role of Islam in the formation of the Umayyad and the Ottoman Empires. Although the literature about these Islamic empires is extensive enough, they generally provide a rich historical narrative without theorization. To fill this gap, I use constructivist theory in the analysis and point out that religion as a structural force helps states to turn into empires over time. Nevertheless, following the agent-structure debate, I also argue that the individual characteristics of these states are essential to understand how religion affected their policies and how they interpreted the religion. The findings show that as the Umayyad Empire was not recognized as legitimate by various sects in religious terms in the seventh and eighth centuries, religion played less of a regulatory role in imperial policies and its rulers did not hesitate to adopt ruthless stratagems and a divide-and-conquer strategy. On the other hand, the Ottoman Empire benefited from religion in its conquests and its policies were primarily restricted by religious norms and values. As a result of this dependence, ruthless stratagems were adopted less often, and Ottoman policies were heavily shaped by religious norms and values.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Empire, Constructivism, Ottoman Empire, and Umayyad Empire
Political Geography:: Middle East

1511. The European Union's Response to Rising Powers: The Challenges of the BRICS and MIKTA Countries | Avrupa Birliği’nin Yükselen Güçler Politikası: BRICS ve MIKTA Ülkelerinin Meydan Okumaları

Author:: Fevzi Kırbaşoğlu and Özgür Tüfekçi
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: The European Union was established after the Second World War by countries that wanted to maintain their presence in the global arena as a whole and reorganise economic structures. The rising powers challenged the European Union with the start of the millennium. In order to counter challenges, the European Union has developed a number of mechanisms for its institutional structure and its relations with other actors. These mechanisms included the concept of strategic partnership and summit diplomacy. The mechanisms started with cooperation frameworks such as trade. The mechanisms were thought to reduce the intensity of the challenges and further the relations between the states. For this reason, in this study, it will be discussed which challenges the rising powers have made against the EU and to what extent the foreign policy tools used by the EU against these challenges have effects will be discussed. | İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasında küresel arenadaki varlığını bir bütün halinde sürdürmek isteyen Avrupa devletlerinin iktisadi yapılanmalarını yeniden tanzim etmek için meydana getirdiği Avrupa Birliği, yükselen güçler tarafından kaynaklanan çağdaş meydan okumalara karşı durabilmek için kurumsal yapısına ve diğer aktörlerle yürütmekte olduğu ilişkilerine birtakım yenilikler getirmektedir. Stratejik ortaklık konseptinin ve zirve diplomasilerinin bu (yeni) mekanizmalar arasında yer aldığı düşünülmektedir. Avrupa Birliği özellikle ticaret gibi işbirliği çerçevelerinden başlayan bu mekanizmalar sayesinde meydan okumaların şiddetini azaltacağını ve taraflar arasındaki münasebetleri çok daha ileriye taşıyacağını ümit etmektedir. Bu mucip üzere çalışmada yükselen güçlerin AB’ye yönelik ne tür meydan okumalar gerçekleştirdiği, AB’nin bunlara karşı kullandığı dış politika araçlarının neler olduğu ve bu araçların nasıl optimize edildiği tartışılacaktır.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, Power Politics, European Union, BRICS, and MIKTA
Political Geography:: Europe

1512. Annexation of Crimea from the Perspective of Offensive Realism | Ofansif Realizm Bağlamında Kırım’ın İlhakı

Author:: Oğuzhan Çakır and Ayça Eminoğlu
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: The main purpose of this study is to understand what motives the Russian Federation, a regional power, uses military force against its neighbor, Ukraine, and annexes Crimea. As a result of the literature review conducted for this purpose, this approach of Russia was generally interpreted from two different theoretical perspectives. Some of the critics evaluated Russia's attitude during the crisis process under the name of defensive realism, while the other group, on the contrary, evaluated Russia's attitude under the name of offensive realism. The work is addressed in the context of these two theories, with a deductive approach. The great powers do not refrain from using hard power when it comes to their security. The answer has been searched to the arguments that the Revisionist movement that Russia displayed in this crisis was caused by international developments rather than domestic political developments and that there is no sanctioning power against the great powers that have become a chronic problem of international law. When the relevant study concluded, and the previous crisis experiences of Russia taking in the consideration, it is observed that Russia has similar characteristic features in this crisis as well. It has been concluded that Russia has not been able to get rid of the sense of the siege it experienced during the Cold War and has pursued aggressive policies when it feels such a threat in its nearby geography. On the other hand, what happened in Crimea has clearly shown that the great powers do not refrain from using force and ignoring international law when it comes to their benefits and security. | Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, bölgesel bir güç olan Rusya Federasyonu’nun, komşusu olan Ukrayna’ya karşı hangi saiklerle askeri güç kullandığı ve Kırım’ı ilhak ettiğidir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda yapılan literatür çalışması sonucunda, Rusya’nın bu yaklaşımı genel olarak iki farklı teorik perspektiften yorumlanmıştır. Düşünürlerin bir kısmı Rusya’nın kriz sürecindeki tutumunu defansif realizm bağlamında değerlendirmekteyken diğer grup ise tam aksine Rusya’nın tutumunu ofansif realizm bağlamında ele almışladır. Çalışma, bu iki teori bağlamında, tümdengelimci bir yaklaşımla ele alınmıştır. Büyük güçler, güvenlikleri söz konusu olduğunda sert güç kullanmaktan kaçınmamaktadırlar. Rusya’nın bu krizde sergilemiş olduğu revizyonist hareketin, iç politik gelişmelerden ziyade uluslararası gelişmelerden kaynaklandığı ve uluslararası hukukun kronik sorunu haline gelen büyük güçlere karşı bir yaptırım gücünün olmadığı argümanlarına cevap aranmıştır. İlgili çalışma sonuçlandığında, Rusya’nın geçmişte yaşadığı krizler de ele alındığında, bu krizle benzer karakteristik özelliklere sahip olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Rusya’nın, Soğuk Savaş dönemi yaşadığı kuşatılma algısından kurtulamadığı ve yakın coğrafyasında bu şekilde bir tehdit hissettiği zaman saldırgan politikalar izlediği sonucu varılmıştır. Öte yandan Kırım’da yaşananlar, büyük güçlerin kendi menfaatleri ve güvenlikleri söz konusu olduğunda güç kullanmaktan ve uluslararası hukuku hiçe saymaktan kaçınmadıklarının açıkça göstermiştir.
Topic:: International Law, Territorial Disputes, Realism, and Annexation
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

1513. Peace as a Human Right: Outlook of the Relationships between Human Rights and Peace from the 21st Century | Bir İnsan Hakkı Olarak Barış: İnsan Hakları/Barış İlişkisinin 21. Yüzyıldan Görünümü

Author:: Fatma Akkan Güngör and Zehra Aksu
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: The 20th century has been regulated with a conservative principle due to the fact that states could not be able to solve their national and international problems on their own, and therefore should embrace the concept of global cooperation. That is the reason why state sovereignty has been the subject of many discussions until today. When peace emerged as a human right in the form of solidarity, it was taken into consideration in the literature together with the concept of humanitarian intervention. Furthermore, after that, its validity was discussed in the context of state sovereignty. While all these discussions are taking place, many philosophers/academics, who focus on the problematic of state right or human right and whose ideas evolve to peace studies over the inevitability of wars and reach a stalemate between the subject or state over the right of intervention, bring the old concepts back to the agenda and produce new ideas for the new order. Based on the question of whether peace should be in the system or within the nation, the main problematic in this era is whether a society that includes the entire universe or a system in which the sovereignty principles of states will continue and whether a system, in which wars are also possible, will be accepted as "right" by the subject. | 20. yüzyıl devletler için ulusal ve uluslararası sorunlarını tek başlarına çözemeyecekleri ve bu nedenle küresel işbirliğine yanaşmaları düzleminde muhafazakar ilkeyle düzenlenmiş ve günümüze kadar geçen sürede devlet egemenliği birçok tartışmaya konu olmuştur. Barış, dayanışma türünde bir insan hakkı olarak ortaya çıktığında literatürde insani müdahale kavramı ile birlikte ele alınmış ve sonrasında devlet egemenliği bağlamında geçerliliği tartışılmıştır. Tüm bu tartışmalar yaşanırken devlet hakkı mı insan hakkı mı sorunsalına odaklanan ve savaşların kaçınılmazlığı üzerinden barış çalışmalarına evrilen ve müdahale hakkı üzerine özne mi devlet mi çıkmazında kalan birçok düşünür, eski kavramları yeniden gündeme taşımakta ve yeni düzene yeni düşünceler üretmektedir. Barışın sistemde mi ulusta mı olması gerektiği sorusu üzerinden hareketle ana sorunsal, bu çağda tüm evreni içine alacak bir toplumun mu yoksa devletlerin egemenlik ilkelerinin devam edeceği ve savaşların da olası olduğu bir sistemin mi özne tarafından doğru kabul edileceğidir.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Cooperation, Sovereignty, Self Determination, Humanitarian Intervention, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1514. The World Health Organization: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Transnational Law

Author:: Carla Piffer and Paulo Márcio Cruz
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The reflections made in this writing, bring to discussion the importance of transnational law, in the face of the occurrence of the current pandemic. From this, considerations are made about the transnational law produced by the WHO against Covid-19. Also, an analysis is made of the central categories and their relationship with the prefix ‘trans-’ and transnational law. Subsequently, the WHO is discussed, its emergence and performance in the elaboration of a transnational legal framework to be considered when internalizing its guidelines by each Member State. In the context of final considerations, it is emphasized, in addition to the importance that should be attributed to transnational law that the work of the WHO, as a transnational actor, practices materialized acts such as transnational law, both in terms of guidance and in connection with public health matters. The methodology used was based on the inductive method, using the bibliographic research.
Topic:: World Health Organization, Law, Transnational Actors, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Brazil and Global Focus

1515. Freedom of Expression in Times of COVID-19: Chilling Effect in Hungary and Serbia Article Sidebar

Author:: Kristina Cendic and Gergely Gosztonyi
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: New technologies have opened several risks to safety of journalists. More importantly, in the state of emergency caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, journalists and media actors have shifted their activities online more than ever, which also made them more prone to digital threats and attacks. In some regimes there are even organized intimidation campaigns against political opponents causing chilling effect and self-censorship, and jeopardizing freedom of expression in general. Hungary as a member of the European Union since 2004 and Serbia as a leading candidate to join the EU are two countries where the problems and concerns about media freedom is growing every day. The fear from the unknown during the international pandemic gave opportunity to some governments to hide their real political agendas and cover their desire for the 'good-old-fashioned' censorship. The number of countries where some kind of censorship could be found is growing every day. The authors will show two country-case-studies from Hungary and Serbia, where the leaders and the political situations are very similar and could show a (good or bad) example to other countries that would like to follow the illiberal views on media issues.
Topic:: Media, Freedom of Expression, Journalism, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Hungary

1516. The Gender-Based Violence as an Instrument of Warfare in Armed Conflicts

Author:: Collins G. Adeyanju
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The gender-based violence in recent times has become an integral part of the on-going Boko Haram Insurgency in North-East Nigeria. Since the full-scale declaration of combat between the Nigerian state and the insurgent group, the asymmetrical tactics of the group have been evolving, based on its capabilities. The recent spike in the targeted raid and attack on female schools, markets, and female institutions purposely for abduction and kidnapping of women and girls indicated this assertion. Due to the depletion of its fighters and loss of territories, there is a surge in mass deployment of ‘women and young girls’ as material instruments of warfare: fighters, suicide bombers, human shields, bargaining tools, sex slaves, informants, and so on. This article appraises the gender push-pull factors responsible, motivation behind the current behavior, and proffers some policy guidance.
Topic:: Women, Gender Based Violence, Sexual Violence, Boko Haram, Abductions, Armed Conflict, and Suicide Bombing
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

1517. Sustaining Power Through External Threats: The Power of Enemy Images in Russia and Azerbaijan

Author:: Aram Terzyan
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Despite the growing body of research on authoritarian regimes, few studies address the issues of their legitimization through exaggerating external threats and constructing enemy images. Targeting the gap in the literature, this article explores the discursive strategies of ‘evilization’ and demonization of the ‘other’, with a focus on their implications for legitimating and sustaining the authoritarian regimes in post-Soviet space. Examining the cases of Russia and Azerbaijan, the qualitative, comparative analysis presented in this article uncovers a series of essential similarities between the regimes’ legitimization strategies. Findings suggest that there has been a strong tendency in both Russian and Azerbaijani discourses to ‘externalize’ major problems facing the countries and scapegoat ‘evil forces’ as their main causes. Frequent appeals to the external threats have been accompanied by a heightened emphasis on the necessity of strong presidential power, with ‘strongmen’ that are capable of withstanding the enemies’ conspiracies. Remarkably, one of the core similarities between the two regimes is their unstoppable drive towards monarchical presidencies.
Topic:: Power Politics, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Azerbaijan

1518. The Evaluation of Russia's Foreign Policy Towards Georgia Following the ‘Rose Revolution’

Author:: Ekaterine Lomia
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: For more than twenty-eight years, following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russian-Georgian relations have been a substantial ground for mutual confrontation, sharp dispute, and a lack of trust. Continuous tensions and disagreements have adversely affected efforts to achieve a proper balance in bilateral relations between the neighboring countries and resulted in a number of direct and indirect confrontations. Whilst the Russian president seeks to restore Russia’s great power status, regain its past glory and control strategically important regions of the former Soviet space, Georgia, from the very first day of independence, tries to maintain its sovereignty and territorial integrity, develop modern state institutions, strengthen democratic values and integrate into the Euro-Atlantic structures. The paper aims to study Moscow’s current foreign policy strategy towards Georgia following the ‘Rose revolution’ and argues that Russia’s military intervention in Georgia, in August 2008, was a clear illustration of classical realism used by a great power in the XXI century. Russia actively uses hybrid warfare and regularly employs economic leverage on Georgia to eventually achieve its political ends in the Caucasus region.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Economy, and Annexation
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Georgia

1519. Myanmar’s Foreign Strategy Toward China Since Rohingya Crisis: Changes, Outlook and Implications

Author:: Jaesoo Park
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Myanmar has crafted a neutral foreign policy since its colonial years to avoid leaning too much on any foreign power, but a spiraling political crisis at home is pushing it toward China as a buffer against international outrage. Myanmar faces charges of genocide against the Rohingya. China has backed Myanmar in the UN. In fact, China is in a similar situation. China is grappling with international criticism over the perceived repression of ethnic Uighur people. Myanmar is exposed to various words and loud in the international community. So Myanmar wants to improve relations with China and is turning into an active cooperative attitude as a strategy to secure a friendly army. This paper shows how the diplomatic relations between Myanmar and China are changing, and how Myanmar’s foreign strategy toward China is approaching. Also, this article analyzes the outlook of diplomatic relations and the implications of the current situation.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Rohingya
Political Geography:: China, Myanmar, and Indo-Pacific

1520. Women and Gender Equality: Justice or Civilization?

Author:: Mustapha Alhaji Ali and Halima Ali Buratai
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The issue of gender justice has drawn the attention of gender scholars as does gender equality a justice or civilization. Because of this, the paper examined women and gender equality justice or civilization. In discussing these gender issues, several documents, reports, newspapers, magazines, archives, articles, journals, among others, were systematically reviewed to support the argument. Two theories were used in supporting the argument. These are Islamic Feminist and Liberal Feminist theories. The assumptions of these theories centered on gender equality and gender justice in society. The study found that gender equality is not civilization but justice. This is of the fact that both men and women are born equal and need equal justice for the development of the nation. The paper recommended that men and women should be given equal opportunity in all aspects of life in order to ensure gender justice. Parents and religious leaders should adhere to the principles of gender equality for the betterment of society.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Justice, Civilization, and Equality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1521. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 12 Issue 03: COVID-19 and Terrorism

Author:: Raffaello Pantucci, Abdul Basit, Kyler Ong, Nur Aziemah Azman, V. Arianti, and Muh Taufiqurrohman
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has redefined almost all spheres of modern life. While states around the world are redeploying their financial resources, energies and military capabilities to cope with the challenge of the coronavirus, terrorist groups across the ideological spectrum have positioned themselves to exploit the gaps created by these policy re-adjustments. Terrorist groups are milking people’s fears amid confusion and uncertainty to promote their extremist propagandas. The rearrangement of global imperatives will push counter-terrorism and extremism down the priority list of the international community. Anticipating these policy changes, existing counter-terrorism frameworks and alliances should be revisited to devise cost-effective and innovative strategies to ensure continuity of the fight against terrorist groups. With these considerations in mind, this special issue of the Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) features four articles that identify and assess important security risks around COVID-19, given its far-reaching social, economic and geopolitical impact. In the first article, Raffaello Pantucci reasons that COVID-19 will have a deep-seated and prolonged impact across government activity, both in terms of the categorisation of risks, as well as the resources available to tackle other issues. Perceptions of risk around terrorist threats may shift, with states grappling with stark economic, social and political challenges. At the same time, security threats continue to evolve, and may even worsen. According to the author, some of the tools developed to deal with the pandemic can potentially be useful in tracking terrorist threats. However, resource constraints will require states, on a global scale, to think far more dynamically about how to adequately buffer much-needed security blankets both within and beyond their borders. In the second article, Abdul Basit outlines the opportunities and potential implications that COVID-19 has created for terrorist groups across the ideological divide. According to the author, terrorist groups have exploited the virus outbreak to spread racial hatred, doomsday and end-of-times narratives. Among jihadist groups, IS has taken a more totalitarian view of the coronavirus pandemic, while Al-Qaeda (AQ) and the Taliban have used it as a PR exercise to gain political legitimacy. Far-right groups in the West have spun it to promote native nationalism, border restoration and anti-immigration policies. Terrorist groups have increased their social media propaganda to radicalise and recruit vulnerable individuals. At the same time, these groups have urged their supporters to carry out lone-wolf attacks and use the coronavirus as a bioweapon. In the post-COVID-19 world, revisiting existing counter-terrorism frameworks to devise more adaptable and cost-effective strategies would be needed to continue the fight against terrorism. In the next article, V. Arianti and Muh Taufiqurrohman observe that the COVID-19 outbreak has had a varied impact on Indonesia’s security landscape. On the one hand, it has emboldened IS-affiliated Indonesian militant groups to step up calls for attacks, with the government seen as weakened amidst a worsening domestic health crisis. On the other, ongoing indoctrination and recruitment activities of militant groups have also faced disruptions. According to the authors, counter-terrorism strategies will need to be reoriented as circumstances evolve, particularly in dealing with the arrest of militants and the subsequent processes of their prosecution and incarceration. Finally, Kyler Ong and Nur Aziemah Azman examine the calls to action by far-right extremists and the Islamic State (IS), which reveals varying degrees of organisational coherence in the respective movements. According to the authors, such variations influence these two groups’ preferred techniques, tactics and procedures adopted in seeking to exploit the health crisis. For its part, IS has a more organised hierarchical structure, even if it has increasingly granted autonomy to its affiliates to plan and execute attacks. In comparison, the absence of a central authority, or command structure in the far-right, can lead to a fragmentation of interests. These factors invariably create uncertainties in how, when and where extremists of both ilk may seek to operationalise an attack.
Topic:: Security, Government, Health, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South Asia, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Global Focus

1522. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 12 Issue 02: Geopolitics and Jihadism in a Post-Soleimani Era

Author:: James M Dorsey, Raffaello Pantucci, Bilveer Singh, and Noor Huda Ismail
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The high-profile assassination of General Qassim Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force (QF), on January 3 in Baghdad marked the lowest point in US-Iran relations in recent times. It triggered a new spell of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with far-reaching consequences for South and Southeast Asia. Soleimani’s killing has also coincided with the potential rejuvenation of the Islamic State (IS), and ongoing anti-government protests in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon. Soleimani’s killing was bound to have reverberations beyond the Middle East. Muslim-majority states in South and Southeast Asia, where both Saudi Arabia and Iran have engaged in sectarian proxy wars by funding and influencing the Sunni and Shia segments of the population. While states in both regions have condemned Soleimani’s killing, they have stayed largely neutral to avoid getting sucked into rising geopolitical tensions. Against this backdrop, the March issue of the Counter Terrorists Trends and Analyses (CTTA) features three articles that explore different dimensions of Soleimani’s death and their geopolitical implications. In the first article, James M. Dorsey argues that as US-Iran tensions have eased in recent months, Iranian hardliners, emboldened by a sweeping mandate earned in recent domestic elections, remain committed to a well-honed strategy of escalating asymmetric warfare. According to the author, this raises the prospects for a full-scale war, with the United States also still pursuing a maximum pressure campaign on Iran that has to date, yet to produce tangible results. In the second article, Raffaello Pantucci reasons that despite a general consensus that the US-Iran rupture will ease pressure on transnational jihadist groups in the Middle East theatre, it remains unclear how Soleimani’s killing will shape their future behaviour. On the one hand, Iran-backed Shia militias are likely to step up their operations, which will exacerbate sectarian fault-lines in the region and feed into IS’ self-portrayal as the saviours of Sunnis. Conversely, pragmatism continues to define interactions between Tehran and Sunni jihadist groups such as the Islamic State and Al Qaeda, who appear happy to cooperate to ensure broader strategic goals. Next, Bilveer Singh examines the implications of Soleimani’s assassination for South and Southeast Asia. regions where both Iran and Saudi Arabia enjoy ideological influence among the Muslim-majority states. Sunni Malaysia and Indonesia have reservations about Tehran, but domestic political pressures are likely to endear Iran to them more than the US. The impact in South Asia could be more varied, mostly affecting Afghanistan and Pakistan. Iran through its Shia militant proxies can undermine US interests in Afghanistan. The QF has also recruited significant Shia militias in Afghanistan and Pakistan respectively for operations in Syria. Moreover, Pakistan has to walk a tight rope given Iran has an inside track to its significant Shia population. Besides cross and intra-regional assessments of Soleimani’s assassination within the broader US-Iran fissures, the threat landscapes in Indonesia and West Africa, both long-time hotbeds for terrorist activity in their respective regions, are also examined in this issue. Firstly, Noor Huda Ismail takes a closer look at pro-IS terrorist networks in Indonesia, a country that is home to the world’s largest Muslim population. By examining the background, tactics and modus operandi of local terrorist groups, both online and offline, and comparing their legacy with those of previous militant Islamist movements, the author believes important learning lessons can be drawn to help mitigate future security threats. Finally, Atta Barkindo analyses the jihadist threat in the Sahel region, where a landscape conducive to terrorist activities provides the fertile ground for IS and Al-Qaeda to grow by linking up with local militant networks. The tactical sophistication exhibited in terrorist attacks by Sahelian jihadist groups, particularly in Nigeria and the Lake Chad region, testifies to a growing footprint of global jihadism. Sahel provides an arterial life-line through the region, by facilitating the movement of goods and people between the Mediterranean and West Africa, which has been enormously beneficial to terrorist groups involved in organised criminal enterprises. Moreover, desertification and environmental degradation have also created a conducive environment for criminal activities and terrorism.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

1523. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 12 Issue 01: Annual Threat Assessment

Author:: Ong Keng Yong, Noorita Mohd Noor, Iftekharul Bashar, Muhammad Saiful Alam Shah Bin Sudiman, Nodirbek Soliev, Remy Mahzam, and Amalina Abdul Nasir
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The January issue provides an overview of terrorist and violent extremist threats in key countries and conflict zones in the Asia-Pacific throughout 2019. Regional specific threats and responses covering Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, China and the Middle East are assessed. In addition, themes such as the online narratives propagated by global threat groups and counter-ideological dimensions of terrorism and violent extremism are analysed. Globally, despite suffering severe territorial, leadership and organisational losses in 2019, Islamist terror groups Islamic State (IS) and Al Qaeda (AQ) continued to pose the most potent terrorist threat. Early in the year, IS’ territorial reign was ended by American-backed coalition forces, following which its networks became scattered and, in a bid to overcome its physical decimation, more decentralised across the globe. The death of IS’ “Caliph”, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, in October 2019, raised further questions about the group’s continued resiliency. Yet, IS has proved persistent and adaptive. The group’s violent ideology continues to bind its myriad followers across regions. In the aftermath of its territorial and leadership losses, IS’ terror attacks and online offensives have been sustained. The global security landscape was further complicated by the emergence of Right Wing Extremist groups as violent actors on the world stage in 2019. Mass political protests around the world further underscored growing dissatisfaction with the present status quo, amid perceptions that some states are unable to articulate masses’ aspirations and meet their demands. The threat of Islamist terrorism will persist into 2020, especially with escalating geo-political tensions in the Middle East. Overcoming the physical and ideological threat by global militant groups, including far-right extremist groups, will remain very much a work in progress in the year ahead.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Protests, and Violence
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia

1524. The Role of International Seabed Authority with Respect to the Administration of Mineral Resources

Author:: Şûle Anlar Güneş
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Deep ocean floor called as Area is considered as Common Heritage of Mankind (CHM) and the mining activities are managed by International Seabed Authority (ISA). In this article, firstly, the significance of the CHM concept with respect to decolonised states and its impact on law of the sea is elaborated. Secondly, the mandate of ISA which assumed responsibility for the translation of the CHM concept into practice is examined. Every state can take part in mining activities in the Area as a ‘sponsor state’ but the lack of precision with respect to responsibility limits have a deterrent effect over the states that are disadvantaged technically and financially. Considering the negative impact of this issue over the CHM concept the Advisory Opinion of the International Tribunal for Law of the Sea that was given in 2011 is examined.
Topic:: International Law, United Nations, Natural Resources, Law of the Sea, Maritime, and Mining
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Global Focus

1525. Interpreters as Diplomatic Actors in the Trump Era

Author:: Seckin Baris Gulmez, Nihal Yetkin Karakoc, and Didem Buhari Gulmez
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This article investigates the impact of interpreters on the US foreign policy that is defined with a tradition of anti- diplomacy in the Trump era. The literature in both International Relations and Translation Studies often overlooks the impact of interpreters on diplomacy and fails to consider interpreter as an actor per se. In this context, the study will investigate the initiatives undertaken by interpreters in order to fill the emerging gap in the diplomatic sphere in terms of diplomatic language, customs and actors in the Trump era. Accordingly, the article first comparatively examines the role of interpreters and diplomats and then, discusses the key roles of interpreters in diplomacy under two main categories: “communication filter” involving time-gaining strategy, moderation and gatekeeping and “conciliation” that includes the roles of scape goat, crisis prevention and mediation. Overall, this study demonstrates that interpreters have a greater space of manoeuvre than is generally assumed in terms of influencing diplomatic processes. By establishing the missing link between International Relations and Translation Studies, this study aims to become a pioneering work that contributes to the debate about whether interpreters can be considered as an important diplomatic actor.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Translation, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Turkey, North America, and United States of America

1526. The New British Colonialism: British Policy of Influence in the Arab Gulf States after the Withdrawal (1971-1991)

Author:: Selin M. Bolme and Mevlut Cavusoglu
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This paper aims to analyze Britain’s relations with the former colonies in the Gulf after the termination of the British protectorate in the Persian Gulf and discuss how the British colonial ties influenced the post-colonial relations with the Arab Gulf States. Archive documents, official papers and secondary sources were used in order to determine and compare the relations in pre/post withdrawal periods and the results were analyzed in frame of the Post-colonial theory. The main argument of this study is that the British colonial relations and ties, which had been constructed in political, military, economic and institutional spheres in the colonial era, were significant determinants in reshaping the new British foreign policy towards the Arab Gulf States. Britain, who successfully adopted the colonial relations in the new term, managed to preserve its interests after the withdrawal and even extended some of them in certain fields such as the oil sector.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, and Colonialism
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, and Persian Gulf

1527. Twitter Diplomacy in Turkey - US Relations

Author:: Ali Sevket Ovali
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The use of Twitter has become an important part of foreign policy making and conducting in the recent years. Since it is seen as the most powerful and popular tool of digital diplomacy, foreign policy makers increasingly use Twitter for sending messages to their counterparts and to inform their followers on certain issues, problems or current topics on their country’s foreign policy agenda. Taking the popularity of Twitter use in foreign policy, this study aims to discuss the role of Twitter diplomacy on Turkey-US relations. In this respect, how and for which purposes foreign policy makers in Turkey and the US use Twitter, which topics are mostly covered by the tweets of the selected top- level decision-makers’ accounts, the positive and negative impacts of Twitter on the current status of bilateral relations and the role that Twitter is likely to play in the future of relations are the points that are going to be dealt within the framework of this study.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Social Media, Donald Trump, and Twitter
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1528. Foreign Policy as a Contested Front of the Cultural Wars in Turkey: The Middle East and Turkey in the Era of the AKP

Author:: Dogan Gurpinar
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This article analyses the evolving discourses over Turkish foreign policy deeply entrenched within the Turkish cultural wars. It demonstrates the process and mechanisms that render Turkish foreign policy an extension of the pursuit of cultural politics and statements of identity. It also assesses how the Middle East was posited not only as a theater of diplomacy but also as a rhetorical gadget over contested Turkish identity, especially pushed by the AKP intelligentsia and policymakers and avidly defied by the secular opposition. Its emphasis is on the Arab Spring and Turkey’s immersion into the Syrian civil war, as these developments exacerbated the overlap between foreign policy making and discourses on foreign policy, particularly since the AKP sought not only diplomatic opportunities but also a regional transnational realignment as a result of the Arab Spring and the regional revolutionary milieu.
Topic:: Populism, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Islamism, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

1529. Iranians Turn Away from the Islamic Republic

Author:: Ladan Boroumand
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: The Islamic Republic of Iran is confronted with an unprecedented legitimacy crisis. This article, highlighting the heterodox character of Iran’s theocratic ideology, stresses the tectonic social and cultural changes that have resulted in society’s estrangement from the state over the past forty years in a reaction against this ideology. The nature and depth of these social and cultural changes point to a historic process that is taking Iran toward becoming the first Muslim-majority society to weave into its spiritual, social, and intellectual fabric the principled separation of religion and the state characteristic of the liberal-democratic worldview.
Topic:: Religion, Culture, Democracy, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1530. The End of History Revisited

Author:: Yascha Mounk
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Until a few years ago, many argued that liberal democracy was the most just and attractive political regime. The most prominent manifestation of this optimism was Francis Fukuyama’s thesis of the “end of history.” Ironically, many of the same social scientists who dismissed Fukuyama’s work out of hand at the time were themselves committed to equally far-reaching assumptions. Now, as the tides of history are rapidly turning, the hypotheses of theory are being reversed. Indeed, some authors today predict that as the conditions that made liberal democracy possible fade away, it is likely to be supplanted by illiberal democracy, competitive authoritarianism, or outright dictatorship. Such conclusions risk being just as rash as the more optimistic ones that preceded them.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, and Illiberal Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1531. 30 Years of World Politics: What Has Changed?

Author:: Francis Fukuyama
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Since the publication of the Journal of Democracy began in 1990, the political climate has shifted from one of democratic gains and optimism to what Larry Diamond labels a “democratic recession.” Underlying these changes has been a reorientation of the major axis of political polarization, from a left-right divide defined largely in economic terms toward a politics based on identity. In a second major shift, technological development has had unexpected effects—including that of facilitating the rise of identity-based social fragmentation. The environment for democracy has been further transformed by other slow-moving changes, among them the shift toward neoliberal economic policies, the legacy of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and lowered expectations regarding democratic transitions. Sustaining democracy will require rebuilding the legitimate authority of the institutions of liberal democracy, while resisting those powers that aspire to make nondemocratic institutions central.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Legitimacy, and Democratic Decline
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1532. The Squeeze on African Media Freedom

Author:: Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Nearly thirty years after governments loosened control over broadcasters and publishers, Africa’s media face increasing threats. New laws are resulting in the imprisonment of journalists and closure of media houses, while internet shutdowns and “social-media taxes” are increasingly common strategies to limit the mobilizing and informational potentials of digital technologies. These challenges are occurring in the midst of eroding public support for free media, as the latest Afrobarometer data show increased backing for government restrictions across the continent. Africans’ confidence in their media seems to be declining, potentially due to concerns over bias, hate speech, and disinformation.
Topic:: Media, Journalism, Censorship, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:: Africa

1533. The Pushback Against Populism: Running on “Radical Love” in Turkey

Author:: F. Michael Wuthrich and David Ingleby
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Drawing from the 2019 mayoral elections in Turkey, this paper highlights a path that opposition parties might take to defuse polarized environments and avoid playing into the political traps set by populists in power. The particular type of moral and amplified polarization that accompanies populism’s essential “thin” ideology builds a barrier between a populist’s supporters and the opposition. Yet the CHP opposition in Turkey has recently won notable victories with its new campaign approach of “radical love,” which counteracts populism’s polarizing logic and has exposed Erdoğan’s weakness.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Populism, and Authority
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

1534. Viral Alarm: When Fury Overcomes Fear

Author:: Xu Zhangrun
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: The coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic has revealed the corruption of Chinese authoritarianism under Xi Jinping. In an unsparing critique, Tsinghua University professor Xu Zhangrun argues that Chinese governance and political culture under the Chinese Communist Party have become morally bankrupt. The Party deceived the Chinese people as the viral outbreak in Wuhan spread across China before developing into a global pandemic. Chinese officials were more concerned with censoring the internet and news of the disease to preserve Xi’s one-man rule than with protecting the people from a public-health disaster. Xu calls on his fellow citizens to reject the strongman politics of the People’s Republic in favor of greater reform and the creation of a constitutional democracy.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Digital Economy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1535. Science, research, and United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540: the need of a “Wiesbaden process” for Academia

Author:: Ignacio Cartagena Núñez
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: The necessary link between export controls/academia/technology transfers has lagged behind in policy agendas: while weapons and dual-use goods are being channeled through very detailed regulations and export control regimes, knowledge transfers within scientific collaborations are subject to disperse and heterogeneous rules. The normative vacuum concerning intangible technology transfers in academia is a clear proliferating risk. History proves that many big proliferation networks have started precisely within peaceful scientific research projects. In this context, dialogue with universities and research centers–on the basis of an increasing awareness of the sensitive nature of research and its proliferating risks- could pave the way for states’ further attention on the matter. This could be achieved through a structured dialogue between public actors –in particular export control authorities- and researchers. In order to preserve scientific freedom, a better understanding of each other’s needs, requirements and concerns should be in the basis of any regulation. This article sustains a three-fold idea: first, basic export controls concepts might not be always suitable for science and research, thus needing a constant adaptation exercise where the active role of researchers and scientists becomes irreplaceable; second: UNSCR 1540 resolution offers a good framework in order to steer cooperation between national regulatory authorities, export control regimes and academia; third, the suggested interaction could take a form similar to the “Wiesbaden process” which has already proven to be a successful platform for interaction between governments and industry representatives. The comprehensive review of UNSCR 1540, expected to take place in 2021, will contribute to shape the nonproliferation agenda for the years to come. It seems a good opportunity for setting up the grounds for this suggested dialogue between public authorities and scientists. This new process could be a tangible achievement of the Comprehensive Review.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Non State Actors, Nonproliferation, and Exports
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1536. La génesis ibérica del moderno poder naval (The Iberian Genesis of Modern Sea Power)

Author:: Manuel Vila González
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: En las postrimerías del siglo XV surgió de la mano de los dos pueblos ibéricos atlánticos una revolucionaria aproximación al uso en beneficio propio del mar, caracterizada por tener que enfrentarse al reto de la navegación oceánica y de la exploración de nuevas tierras, algo jamás siquiera concebido con anterioridad. Como ya había ocurrido en otras etapas históricas con otros protagonistas, la principal motivación para lanzarse al mar fue económica. Sin embargo, la escala geográfica del empeño en esta ocasión dio lugar a una nueva era, caracterizada tanto por un acelerado desarrollo científico como por una globalización del comercio, de la política, de la tecnología y de la cultura (el lenguaje, la educación y el cristianismo). Portugal conquistó los océanos con el ánimo de establecer una red de enclaves comerciales, creando el molde de lo que desde entonces se ha considerado el lógico proceder de las potencias marítimas, empeñadas en moverse con libertad por los mares que unen las colonias con la metrópoli. De esa guisa, lo que desde hace apenas poco más de un siglo se denomina poder naval no era sino la parte del poder marítimo que se encargaba de proteger el comercio propio de la ambición ajena. España, sin embargo, acometió una epopeya similar con una mentalidad más territorial (y más patrimonial), debido a la cual los mismos océanos pasaron a ser considerados parte integrante de las posesiones monárquicas como vínculo que unía las distintas partes del reino. Esa asunción engendró un concepto nuevo de poder naval, por el que en tiempo de paz complementaba al poder marítimo, que se convertía en tributario del primero en caso de conflicto bélico. Lo que los tratadistas clásicos anglosajones (Alfred T. Mahan y Julian S. Corbett, en particular) describieron como poder marítimo y naval al estudiar la historia basándose en fuentes documentales británicas no es más que la trasposición de los principios que rigieron la constitución del Portugal renacentista en una talasocracia de ámbito planetario. El caso español es mucho más complejo, pues no solo fue igualmente ignorado en los estudios histórico-estratégicos tardo-decimonónicos y posteriores (no solo anglosajones, lo que es aún más inexplicable), sino que se mantiene en la bruma de lo inexplorado al no haber tenido continuidad histórica reconocida, lo que ha contribuido a impedir una comprensión adecuada de la dimensión histórica del éxito (por su resiliencia, durabilidad, prosperidad…) del “imperio” de la Monarquía Hispánica.
Topic:: Navy, History, Maritime, and Seapower
Political Geography:: Europe, Spain, and Portugal

1537. Entre políticos y criminales: corrupción política en Colombia 2013-2018 (Between Politicians and Criminals: Political Corruption in Colombia 2013-2018)

Author:: Pedro Piedrahita Bustamante
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La corrupción es un delito que genera afectaciones políticas, específicamente a la construcción del Estado y la democracia. Es decir, restringe las habilidades de las instituciones para lograr el objetivo de promover el bienestar general a través de la creación de poderes secretos que entorpecen la idea de la democracia como poder público que se realiza ante el público. Así, la corrupción política crea un poder secreto, controlado por funcionarios públicos y políticos profesionales que favorecen diversas redes criminales asociadas a otros delitos y afectan las instituciones y el principio de publicidad en la democracia. El objetivo de la investigación es analizar la corrupción política en Colombia entre 2013 y 2018 desde la perspectiva del Crimen Organizado Transnacional (COT). Para esto se considera que para abordar la corrupción política como delito transnacional es necesario superar el fenómeno de narcotización del delito y reconocer que la corrupción política es también un delito relevante, que funciona en red y que se asocia con otras dinámicas criminales para buscar beneficios económicos del Estado o afectarlo. El enfoque metodológico fue cualitativo y se utilizó el método fenomenológico-hermenéutico en el análisis de la información histórica recopilada desde el siglo XVI que sirvió de contexto para establecer la relación de la corrupción con otros delitos en el país y de los diferentes casos de corrupción analizados en el período de estudio. Se aclara que solo se tienen en cuenta aquellos casos que se ajustan al análisis de corrupción transnacional por los vínculos con otras redes. Se evidencia que entre 2013 y 2018 hubo casos de corrupción política con nexos criminales asociados al narcotráfico, el lavado de activos, la prostitución, entre otros. No obstante, varios de estos hechos no parecen tener la misma relevancia informativa que los típicos casos de soborno, financiación ilegal de campañas o carteles de contratación. Esto se entiende como una oportunidad para seguir profundizando en este tipo de investigaciones.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Crime, Politics, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Global Focus

1538. Inteligencia para la Seguridad Pública en las Entidades Federativas de México (Intelligence for Public Security in Mexican States)

Author:: Juan Carlos Montero Bagatella
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La seguridad pública en México continúa siendo uno de los problemas más importantes. La inseguridad, expresada en estadísticas sobre incidencia delictiva y encuestas sobre percepción de inseguridad, no se ha logrado reducir. Ante dicho escenario, el artículo expone la complejidad de la seguridad pública, reconociéndola como una materia que trasciende las atribuciones de distintas dependencias y órdenes de gobierno. La investigación se enfoca en el papel de la inteligencia estratégica en las entidades federativas, reconociéndola como instrumento para la toma de decisiones. Para ello, el trabajo comienza por exponer la complejidad de la seguridad pública de acuerdo con el marco legal; en segundo lugar, se expone la utilidad de la inteligencia y de la inteligencia estratégica para la seguridad pública; en tercer lugar, se expone la investigación realizada en las 32 entidades federativas para identificar sus capacidades para generar y compartir inteligencia para la seguridad pública. La investigación expone la falta de mecanismos para generar y compartir inteligencia al interior de las entidades federativas y entre órdenes de gobierno, así como una visión restringida de la inteligencia orientada hacia la función policial, excluyendo elementos como la prevención de la violencia y el delito o la reinserción social.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, and Police
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

1539. La captura del Estado peruano por el narcotráfico: el caso de los “cuello blanco del puerto” (The Capture of the Peruvian State by Drug Trafficking: the Case of «the White Collars of the Port»)

Author:: Laura Zúñiga Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Desde los años ochenta el Perú es una pieza clave en el escenario internacional del tráfico de drogas. Segundo productor de cocaína del mundo y uno de los países donde se cultiva el principal insumo, la hoja de coca, el puerto de El Callao, siendo uno de los principales puertos de América Latina por su volumen, se presume que es desde donde salen importantes cargas de esa droga. La interceptación de las comunicaciones en 2018 para investigar el crimen organizado violento que se desarrollaba en esa Provincia, desveló una red de jueces, fiscales, congresistas, empresarios, que colaboraban con los narcotraficantes favoreciéndoles con la impunidad. No es el primer intento de captura del Estado peruano por el narcotráfico. En la década de los noventa, el gobierno de Fujimori-Montesinos, utilizó el dinero del narcotráfico –entre otros- para sobornar a las más altas autoridades del país: jefes militares, Corte Suprema, Fiscal de la Nación, medios de comunicación, empresarios, todos afines al gobierno. Los “narcoindultos” del segundo gobierno de Alan García son otro síntoma de la gravedad de la colaboración de autoridades de las más altas esferas del Estado con los poderosos narcotraficantes. Se pone en evidencia la “doble moral” de la Política Criminal peruana contra el tráfico internacional de drogas, fuerte para los débiles y débil para los fuertes: penas altas para los pequeños traficantes e impunidad para los que se encuentran en el vértice de las organizaciones criminales. Además, resulta preocupante la enorme capacidad corruptora del dinero proveniente del narcotráfico (blanqueo de dinero) para capturar miembros de los poderes del Estado: Ejecutivo, Legislativo y Judicial. El caso “cuellos blanco del puerto” es una muestra empírica de la intersección de la corrupción judicial –y sus adláteres- dentro del Estado peruano y las organizaciones del crimen organizado. Para conjurar estas alianzas, es preciso poner el acento en la punición de los delincuentes de cuello blanco del narcotráfico y sus colaboradores: abogados, jueces, fiscales, etc., que utilizan su profesión como tapadera para enriquecerse personalmente, en desmedro del bien común.
Topic:: Corruption, Trafficking, Financial Crimes, Impunity, Drugs, Judiciary, and White Collar Crime
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

1540. Western DAESH Women: Ideology, Profile and Motivation

Author:: Juan Carlos Antunez Moreno
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: The DAESH has been particularly successful in recruiting Western women. There are differences in their profile and motivation with their male counterparts. The DAESH offered an alternative to Western secularist feminism, substituting salvation for emancipation (empowerment without gender equality). DAESH´s Western women played different roles. They were wives of jihadists, mothers and educators of the next generation, recruiters and fundraisers for the organisation and workers in the segregated institutions of the Caliphate. They were also involved in violent actions when the time came, depending on the needs of the organisation. The analysis on DAESH Western women is often influenced by prejudices, stereotypes, and gender biases. Counterterrorism efforts need for the integration of the gender perspectives and needs for more women to detect radicalization as well as in prevention, de-radicalisation, and reintegration processes.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Women, Radicalization, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

1541. Pacifying Police Units and private interests in Brazil

Author:: Mayane Dore, Gabriel Bayarri, and Daniel Marías
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: This article analyzes a concrete policy in the framework of Brazilian Public Security: the Pacifying Police Units (UPPs). It describes this policy and justifies, through an ethnographic case study, how the so-called “pacification of the favelas” articulates a logic of neoliberal urbanism and police infrastructure, understanding the residents of the favelas as potential consumers of their services. The article contextualizes the UPPs model as a paradigmatic case of public security in Latin America in which the discourse of violence/pacification is the main catalyst for private investments. More specifically, the article demonstrates how private companies resort to proximity conflicts mediation as a way of avoiding the judicialization of conflicts with the residents after the “Pacification”. With this case, we expect to illustrate the patrimonialism and clientelism that shapes the Brazilian State and its ambiguous relationships between private and public interests.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Neoliberalism, Violence, Urban, Police, and Patrimonialism
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

1542. Pruebas de ingreso como predictores del rendimiento académico en los aspirantes a soldados del Ejército (Entrance Tests as Predictors of Academic Performance in Army Soldier Applicants)

Author:: Germán Geovanny Muñoz Gualán and Efrain Eduardo Zambrano Rosales
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El rendimiento académico del aspirante a soldado es el conjunto de indicadores de materias académicas, preparación física y actitud militar que presenta dentro del instituto de formación militar, puesto que el producto que se pretende entregar al Ejército y la sociedad, es un individuo disciplinado y preparado académica, militar y físicamente, acorde a los estándares establecidos en el Modelo de Educación Militar de Fuerzas Armadas y el plan de carrera en ciencias militares de la Universidad de Fuerzas Armadas – ESPE. Además, es necesario complementar esta formación al inculcar la convicción de hacer una carrera militar profesional y ética. Es así, que el objetivo planteado fue establecer los resultados de las pruebas de ingreso que predicen el rendimiento académico de los aspirantes a soldados de segundo año militar, promoción 2018-2020, de la Escuela de Formación de Soldados del Ejército Ecuatoriano “Vencedores del Cenepa”. Por lo cual, esta investigación presenta un enfoque cuantitativo, con diseño no experimental, de tipo transversal y un alcance correlacional. Se utilizó los promedios de las pruebas de ingreso y rendimiento académico por períodos académicos y corte anual de cada aspirante a soldado, del archivo y base de datos de la Escuela de Formación de Soldados “Vencedores del Cenepa”, para su tabulación en una matriz de Excel prediseñada y el posterior análisis estadístico en el programa SPSS. De modo que se observa una correlación significativa moderada, entre las pruebas académicas y físicas de ingreso con el rendimiento académico, una correlación baja con la actitud militar de los aspirantes a soldados y la no existencia de correlación con la deserción estudiantil. Además, las pruebas de ingreso que predicen de forma moderada el rendimiento académico y de forma baja la actitud militar de los aspirantes a soldados son las pruebas académicas y físicas de ingreso.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Army, and Academic Performance
Political Geography:: South America and Global Focus

1543. De la fragmentación de las estructuras criminales a una proto-mafia: un análisis del Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) en Sudamérica (From the Fragmentation of Criminal Structures to a Proto-Mafia: An Analysis of the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) in South America)

Author:: Carolina Sampó and Marcos Alan Ferreira
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Este artículo examina cómo el Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) se estructura como un modelo particular de organización criminal en Sudamérica, entre lo que podría considerarse un cartel de tercera generación y una proto-mafia. Tras el fin de los grandes carteles colombianos, las organizaciones criminales debieron modificar la forma en la que se estructuraban. Estos cambios, se tradujeron en una marcada fragmentación que generó una multiplicidad de organizaciones pequeñas en Sudamérica que lograron ingresar al mercado del tráfico de droga, impulsadas por la “democratización” de la cocaína. Sin embargo, en la última década en Brasil se ha visto el proceso contrario. Mientras que en Latinoamérica se pasó de la concentración a la fragmentación – de la existencia de los carteles a la proliferación de un gran número de estructuras criminales pequeñas-, en Brasil, el PCC ha dejado de estar fragmentado para concentrarse y multiplicar su poder, a partir de su presencia y fortaleza en todo el territorio nacional, pero también gracias a su transnacionalización hacia países productores de drogas como Paraguay, Bolivia y Perú. Cabe preguntarnos entonces si estamos frente al surgimiento de una nueva generación de estructuras criminales, que se auto-perciben como empresas transnacionales y que adoptan una forma distinta a la de los carteles tradicionales, mucho más flexible y capaz de adaptarse frente al cambio, lo que las vuelve similar a una mafia, aunque no se han consolidado como tales aún.
Topic:: Narcotics Trafficking, Organized Crime, and Cartels
Political Geography:: South America, Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia

1544. Brasil nuclear: dos interpretaciones opuestas sobre la orientación de su programa atómico (Nuclear Brazil: Two Opposed Interpretations about the Orientation of its Atomic Program)

Author:: Juan Francisco Morales Giraldo
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Al analizar el programa nuclear de Brasil desde dos enfoques teóricos distintos, su orientación y propósitos presentan también importantes diferencias. Las perspectivas más optimistas, de corte liberal, enfatizan que la política exterior de un país debería juzgarse desde aspectos favorables a los valores democráticos, el respeto por las normas internacionales y la autoevaluación de la legitimidad frente al escrutinio de la opinión pública. Pero al contrario de enfoques que se sostienen en argumentos normativos, una perspectiva basada en una política de poder incidiría en aspectos menos idealistas: la reconfiguración de la jerarquía del poder internacional y las aspiraciones de una potencia global emergente como motivaciones subyacentes para los desarrollos técnicos del programa atómico. Este trabajo sopesa la relativa utilidad de ambas perspectivas, enfocándose en situaciones, desarrollos y discursos del pasado reciente que permiten inferir la orientación política el programa nuclear del Brasil. El estudio procede contrastando las evidencias recogidas con elementos teóricos asociados a cada perspectiva. En una primera parte, se compara la política exterior del Brasil respecto al régimen de no proliferación con lo que las tesis liberales plantean acerca de la conducta estatal. En ese sentido, tendrían especial importancia explicativa el peso normativo de las instituciones internacionales, la democracia interna y la legitimidad que otorga el apego a estos principios. En el segundo apartado se adopta una perspectiva opuesta: las tesis liberales respecto a la problemática del programa nuclear del Brasil son vistas de manera crítica según una interpretación de su orientación basada en una política revisionista y pragmática en consonancia con objetivos mayores de estatus internacional y relaciones de poder con las grandes potencias. La evidencia más importante, la ambigüedad de un programa nuclear pacífico con fines militares, sugeriría que es la segunda perspectiva la que posee mayor capacidad explicativa de los propósitos del Brasil en esta materia. Las conclusiones del estudio se enfocan en tres distinciones esenciales entre ambos enfoques que responden a las interrogantes planteadas: la ausencia de un programa de armas nucleares en contraste con la militarización de la tecnología nuclear y sus aplicaciones; el apego a la institucionalidad internacional en contraste con el pragmatismo y la selectividad en el cumplimiento de ciertos principios; y, finalmente, las fronteras conceptuales poco claras que quedan expuestas por el programa nuclear del Brasil.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Science and Technology, Nonproliferation, Realism, and Liberalism
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

1545. El islam en Rusia: desafíos a la seguridad y respuestas estratégicas (Islam in Russia: Security Challenges and Strategic Responses)

Author:: María José Pérez del Pozo
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El islam forma parte de la historia y de la cultura rusas desde el siglo VII, colaborando activamente en el proceso de construcción del Estado, desarrollando relaciones con otros grupos sociales, con los que ha compartido espacios, historia y políticas de asimilación. Sin embargo, la comunidad musulmana ha tenido un papel asimétrico frente a otros grupos étnicos y culturales del Estado, ocupando, durante largos periodos históricos, una posición periférica en asuntos políticos, militares y económicos. A lo largo de los años 90, la religión se convirtió en un elemento de reivindicación nacionalista contra el poder federal, incentivado por la entrada de un islam transnacional radical importado de los países de Oriente Medio de predominio sunita. Las dos guerras chechenas y la posterior gestión de la zona por parte de Moscú han favorecido la aplicación de un nuevo esquema de análisis basado en la etnicidad-seguridad, que generaliza una interpretación negativa del islam en Rusia. La división de las instituciones religiosas musulmanas tampoco ha facilitado la interlocución interétnica ni la relación con el Kremlin. El estudio de las estrategias rusas frente al desafío del islam se ha orientado tradicionalmente al análisis de la dimensión de seguridad, enfocándose en las respuestas militares de los órganos de seguridad del Estado ruso, ya que, la propia disfuncionalidad del sistema político y la ausencia de políticas basadas en al respeto a los derechos individuales ha impedido la aparición de otras iniciativas que consideren la convivencia interétnica e interreligiosa en un Estado declarado laico. Sin embargo, podemos estudiar también las iniciativas rusas aplicando el enfoque del estudio de la política exterior de los Estados para analizar la utilización de la diversidad religiosa en la obtención de determinados objetivos de política exterior. En este sentido, el trabajo aborda la función de los grupos militares procedentes del Cáucaso, integrados en las fuerzas federales rusas, dentro del conflicto sirio. Finalmente, los programas vinculados a la Prevención del Extremismo Violento (PEV) en el Cáucaso Norte, con sus limitaciones, muestran también un cierto cambio en la implementación y gestión de nuevos métodos para frenar la insurgencia regional.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Islam, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and North Caucasus

1546. La brecha de ciberseguridad en América Latina frente al contexto global de ciberamenazas (The Cyber Security Gap in Latin America Against the Global Context of Cyber Threats)

Author:: Juan Manuel Aguilar Antonio
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La presente investigación parte de la hipótesis de que los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe están rezagados en la construcción de ciber capacidades de defensa para enfrentar el contexto actual e internacional de ciber amenazas, respecto a los países miembros de la Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte (OTAN), tanto en el plano de organización, como en el individual. Para probar este enunciado el texto se divide en seis secciones. En la primera se presenta el entorno global amenazas provenientes de ciberespacio, las pérdidas económicas que sufren gobiernos y empresas según informes de firmas de seguridad informática como Kaspersky, Microsoft, Verizon e International Business Machines Corporation (IBM). En la segunda parte, se aborda el proceso de securitización del internet, la inmersión de la ciberseguridad en los estudios de seguridad nacional, así como la definición de ciber capacidades y delimitación de amenazas al Estado-Nación desde el ciberespacio. En la tercera se aborda la trayectoria de la OTAN como organización en el desarrollo ciber capacidades en los últimos veinte años. En la cuarta parte, se analiza desde el nivel individual un conjunto de Estrategias Nacionales de Ciberseguridad (ENCS) de los países y aliados de la OTAN, de las cuales se extraen sus principales elementos y se esquematiza su anatomía general. En la sexta parte, se presenta una aproximación a diferentes entornos regionales o globales de ciberseguridad con base a mediciones del Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI), de la Unión Internacional de Telecomunicaciones (ITU por sus siglas en inglés), y el National Cyber Security Index (NSCI) de la E-Governance Academy de Estonia. En la quinta sección se presenta el contexto de la ciberseguridad en América Latina y el Caribe, según estudios realizados por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) y la Organización de los Estados Americanos (OEA), así como firmas privadas de ciberseguridad. En la sexta, se presenta de manera breve dos estudios de caso de México, del bienio 2019-2020, que representan la falta de madurez de su ENCS y desarrollo de ciber capacidades, aspecto que comparte con la mayoría de los países de América Latina y el Caribe. Por último, se presentan unas breves conclusiones sobre los aspectos a fortalecer por la región.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:: Latin America

1547. Migraciones, deportaciones, colonización y geopolítica durante las guerras dácicas de Trajano (101-106 d.C.) (Migrations, Deportations, Colonization and Geopolitics during Trajan’s Dacian Wars (101 -106 AD))

Author:: David Soria Molina
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Las guerras dácicas de Trajano (101-106 d.C.) implicaron múltiples movimientos de población por parte de todos los contendientes, que afectaron al desarrollo y desenlace del conflicto, condicionando muchas de las decisiones de las potencias implicadas. Del mismo modo, la intensidad y escala de la conflagración, que se extendió a lo largo y ancho de la Europa danubiana y póntica, se saldó con cuantiosas pérdidas de población, consecuencia directa e indirecta de los enfrentamientos armados. Finalmente, el proceso de consolidación del poder romano en Dacia tras la conquista y sus particularidades supusieron la deportación y desplazamiento intencional de grupos de población nativa, migraciones hacia zonas libres de la ocupación romana y otros problemas de orden sociopolítico y demográfico resueltos por el Imperio romano mediante una colonización planificada del nuevo territorio y toda una serie de arreglos diplomáticos concluidos en 119 d.C. En este artículo abordamos, a través de las fuentes literarias, epigráficas, numismáticas, arqueológicas e iconográficas disponibles, estos procesos demográficos, las realidades derivadas de los mismos y sus consecuencias en el marco de las guerras dácicas de Trajano, procesos que condicionaron la situación geopolítica de la región y, por lo tanto, la futura configuración de la Europa del Este.
Topic:: Migration, War, History, Geopolitics, and Deportation
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

1548. How Can We Increase Turnout among Low Propensity Voters?

Author:: Seth Hill, Thad Kousser, Gabriel Lenz, Mackenzie Lockhart, and Elizabeth Mitchell
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: How can we increase voter turnout among low-propensity voters? Researchers and practitioners have found interventions that increase voter turnout, but these interventions tend to increase turnout among individuals already likely to vote, and therefore appear to exacerbate existing inequalities in participation. This project developed and tested an intervention designed to encourage people with a lower prior likelihood of voting into the electorate. First, in summer 2018, we surveyed a diverse sample of voting and non-voting Californians about their political attitudes. We concluded that feeling inadequately informed and feeling inefficacious may contribute to low turnout rates. Based on the results of the survey, we designed messages to address these feelings and tested them in an experiment to increase turnout in two special elections in June 2019 by targeting these sentiments among people with infrequent prior turnout records. Letters with information and encouragement about the voting process did not increase turnout in the subsequent election. We conclude that further work is needed to identify interventions that successfully increase turnout among low-propensity voters.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1549. How Did the Voter’s Choice Act Affect Turnout in 2018?

Author:: Eric McGhee, Mindy Romero, and Laura Daly
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In its first year of implementation, did the Voter’s Choice Act (VCA) change turnout patterns in the counties – Madera, Napa, Nevada, Sacramento, and San Mateo – that adopted this new reform? How did this reform affect the turnout of groups of Californians – young voters, Latinos, and Asian Americans– who have often participated in elections at lower rates than others? We address these questions by gathering data on turnout rates, voter demographics, and electoral competition from 2002 through the primary and general elections of 2018, comparing trends in the adopting counties to the rest of the state.
Topic:: Demographics, Reform, Elections, Diversity, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1550. How Do Californians Want to Cast their Ballots During the COVID-19 Crisis?

Author:: Thad Kousser, Mindy Romero, Mackenzie Lockhart, Seth Hill, and Jennifer Merolla
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In April 2020, how did Californians of all demographic groups want to cast their ballots during the COVID-19 pandemic, what changes to the electoral process would they support during this critical moment, and how would reforms made in 2020 reshape our state’s electorate in the future? We address these questions by analyzing a statewide survey of a diverse sample of 12,276 eligible voters (adult citizens) conducted April 8-22, 2020. As a whole, California’s eligible voters plan to vote by mail more than ever before in November 2020. Voting by mail is the method that gives them the most confidence in the integrity of election results, and they are strongly supportive of policies that expand access to voting by mail. The level of support for voting by mail differs across California’s diverse racial and ethnic groups. Consistent with past studies, our survey found that Latino and African-American eligible voters are generally less likely to prefer this method of voting than non-Latino whites and Asian Americans. It will be important to consider the potentially disparate impacts that any election administration changes could bring and to conduct broad outreach efforts. When presented with scientific projections predicting a fall peak in the impact of COVID-19, eligible voters were even more likely to prefer voting by mail and to express concerns about waiting in line or working at a polling place that did not adhere to social distancing protocols. Specifying a set of social distancing guidelines for in-perso
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Pandemic, Participation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1551. Messaging Matters: How Information about Underrepresentation Affects the Political Participation of Racial and Ethnic Groups in California

Author:: Cheryl Boudreau, Jennifer Merolla, and Sono Shah
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Can racial and ethnic minorities be mobilized to participate in politics at greater rates? We theorize that mobilization messages providing information about a group’s underrepresentation in government may increase participation among racial/ethnic minorities. However, responsiveness to such messages should vary depending on individuals’ prior awareness of their group’s underrepresentation. Using a two-wave panel survey that randomly assigned different get out the vote messages, we find that messages highlighting a racial/ethnic group’s underrepresentation in government do not increase Latinos’, Blacks’, or Asians’ likelihood of voting. We also find that such messages can decrease other forms of political participation among Asians and Latinos who were previously unaware of their group’s underrepresentation. These findings indicate that information about underrepresentation can actually demobilize certain segments of the electorate. Thus, practical efforts to boost participation among underrepresented groups should either communicate information about underrepresentation in other ways or provide a different type of message altogether.
Topic:: Minorities, Elections, Diversity, Voting, Participation, Mobilization, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1552. The Pandemic in Prison: Implications for California Politics and Policymaking

Author:: Amy E. Lerman and Jessie Harney
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: The effects of COVID-19 across California have been devastating, but the impact of the virus has been particularly acute in the state’s overcrowded prisons and jails. The epidemic has clear implications for incarcerated individuals and their families, but also for the tens of thousands of Californians employed in the state’s prison system. These workers represent a powerful force in state politics (Myers, 2018; Williams et al., 2020).
Topic:: Labor Issues, Prisons/Penal Systems, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1553. Early in the Pandemic, There Was No Partisan Divide over Preferences for Voting by Mail in the 2020 Election

Author:: Thad Kousser, Mindy Romero, Mackenzie Lockhart, Seth Hill, and Jennifer Merolla
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In April, 2020, was there a partisan divide between eligible voters from California’s major parties over whether they preferred to vote in person or through mail ballots in the November election, and what percentage of likely voters from each party said they would not vote if the election were held exclusively through the mail? Did partisans divide over policy proposals about how to conduct this election? We investigate these questions by analyzing a statewide survey of a diverse sample of 12,276 eligible voters conducted April 8-22, 2020. When we asked eligible voters how they wanted to cast their ballots this November, we found no significant divide between the Republican and Democratic eligible voters. More than half of eligible voters in both parties prefer to cast a ballot by mail, with nearly another two in ten voters preferring to drop off a ballot that has been sent to them in the mail. Gaps of eight to twelve percentage points emerge between partisans over support for policies that advance voting by mail, though there is still a strong consensus supporting these changes among all partisan affiliations.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Public Health, Pandemic, Participation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1554. Will Concurrent Elections Reshape the Electorate?

Author:: Jonathan Collins, Eddie Lucero, and Jessica Trounstine
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In 2015, Governor Jerry Brown signed the California Voter Participation Rights Act (SB 415) into law. As its title suggests, the bill aimed to increase turnout in local elections by forcing all California jurisdictions to hold elections concurrently with statewide elections (in June or November of even years). Turnout in local elections is significantly lower than national turnout, averaging only 20% by some estimates (Alford and Lee 1968, Wood 2002, Hajnal and Lewis 2003, Caren 2007, Hajnal 2009). Scholars have found that election timing is the most important predictor of differences in aggregate turnout rates across cities (Alford and Lee 1968, Anzia 2014, Anzia 2011, Hajnal and Trounstine 2005). Hajnal and Lewis find that city elections that coincide with presidential elections are associated with a turnout of registered voters 36 percentage points higher than turnout in cities that do not hold elections that coincide with the presidential election (2001, 656). Caren finds that cities holding elections concurrent with the presidential election increase voter turnout by 27% compared to cities that do not (2007, 41). The logic behind SB 415 is that moving local elections to coincide with national elections will improve electoral participation.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1555. China-Russia-Pakistan Strategic Triangle: Imperative Factors

Author:: Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi and Uzma Munshi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China, a rising power and Russia, a great power of the past is currently pursuing the aspiration to regain its lost glory, are at the center stage of Asian geopolitics. Starting from the first decade of twenty first century, the extra tilt of Russia‟s moderate ally India towards the US is ringing alarm bells for China, Russia and Pakistan more or less with an equal spell. Indian tilt towards the US culminating in a nuclear deal between the two in 2008 (Baker, 2008), specifically, post nuclear deal strategic partnership provides the former with a punch to pose a challenge to its two sheer competitors Pakistan and China. In fact, this emerging engagement between Indo-US is based on their shared interest of complicating the security calculations of Pakistan and China. Thus, the strategic partnership between India and the US provides a significant variable to Pakistan to dramatically change the dimensions of its security and strategic relationship with Asian powers such as China and Russia. For Pakistan this partnership will provide it not only an option to maintain balance in the region vis a vis India but it will also provide it with an alternate to the US in the form of realigning its relationship with Russia and China. While shunning off increasing US sway in near abroad is in the interests of both China and Russia, so, this emerging strategic triangle will mutually reciprocate their respective interests. Although, India is obsessed with a desire to become regional hegemon independently pose a significant threat to regional balance and stability in South Asia, its strategic partnership with the US acts moderately as a force multiplier. So, for Pakistan being a major stakeholder in the regional affairs, prudence dictates to cultivate and enhance its strategic relationship with its time tested friend China as well with Russia. The current paper will attempt to access the imperative factors bringing China, Russia and Pakistan closer to form a strategic triangle. It will explore the political, geo-economic and geo-strategic areas of convergence for greater cooperation between this emerging triangle. What are prospects and challenges in the way of development of a strategic triangle between China- Russia and Pakistan that is emerging as a response to a direct threat from Indo-US strategic partnership to gain a hold over regional affairs?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

1556. Decentralization and Social Development: A Study of Local Government System of Pakistan

Author:: Shoukat Ali and Abdul Majid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Decentralization is very important dimension of the modern political system because it applies the core of democracy through local government system (LGS). Every country struggles for social development that includes the standard life of the citizens which is only possible through better delivery system of social services by an efficient local government system. The major concern of the current research is to measure the relationship between “Decentralization” and “Social Development”. The current study is quantitative and descriptive in nature which is based on explanatory research design. The data are gathered through primary and secondary sources. The sample size of primary strand of study consists of 1000 respondents which were selected from the six sampled universities of the Punjab (Pakistan). The questionnaire was employed by the researchers to collect the primary data that are analyzed later by statistical package for social sciences (SPSS). The results of the study found a strong relationship between decentralization and social development. The value of R-Square is .468 that indicates all the included sub- indicators of independent variable have strong and positive relationship with dependent variable.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Local, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1557. Is Corruption Detrimental for Economic Growth? A Panel Data Analysis of Selected South Asian Economies

Author:: Jahanzed Khan, Rana Muhammad Adeel-Farooq, Kashif Akram, and Muhammad Sharif Abbasi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The debate regarding the influence of corruption on economic growth is increasing. Therefore, this study examines the impacts of corruption on economic growth of developing South Asian Economies between 2002-2017 period. The study uses fixed effects, random effects and robust least square estimators for the empirical estimation. The outcomes show that in developing South Asian countries corruption is working like grease and enhancing the economic growth. Nevertheless, the study based on the theoretical and empirical literature recommends these countries to formulate policies to lower corruption as it harms the institutional quality, adversely affects the investment decisions of the firms, system of meritocracy, and is considered globally as a moral decay of the society. These all in turn, in the long run adversely affects the economic growth.
Topic:: Civil Society, Corruption, Economic Growth, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

1558. Afghan Women Education: Bottlenecks & Future

Author:: Muhammad Saleem Mazhar and Naheed S. Goraya
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Afghanistan is a country with strong cultural norms and a male-dominated society, comprising 49% of women population. The plight of Afghan women is embedded in long history of the country. Decades old war has led 90% of Afghan women without education (aged 25). In war- torn countries around the world, thousands of women are deprived of education. The displacement and the predominance of norms or ideologies dampen the very idea of education for women. Most of the schools are far enough and the children, predominately the girls, have no easy access there. Girls do stay at home following the gender norms. However in post 2001, there have been significant developments regarding female education and their participation in public life. The most important contribution was the adoption of National Action Plan for the Women of Afghanistan (NAPWA1), 10 years strategic framework (2010-18). The paper argues that the girls‘ education in Afghanistan requires to be looked through the lens of culture. It will analyze the other barriers to women education and explore the facts how they are unequally treated in terms of access to all levels of education in the country. However, there is a long way to meet the challenges regarding women education. It will conclude with the idea that it is undoubtedly true that countries can develop where there is no gender discrimination with regard to ducation politics and social and economic rebuilding. Only gender-oriented tasks can rule out inequalities in conflict-affected societies and transform them into peaceful societies of respect and equality.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Education, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Women, Feminism, and Equality
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

1559. String of Pearls: Politics of Ports in Indian Ocean

Author:: Khalid Manzoor Butt, Sanwal Hussain Kharl, and Khizar Abbass Bhatti
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Regional security order which is a complex combination of actors and factors is no longer associated exclusively with political and military might. Asia has experienced significant changes in its regional preponderance like economic interdependence and interconnectedness. The phenomenal economic growth of some countries is attributed to its ascendance. The Asian region has become a cauldron of global economic and geopolitical transformation. In this regard, the specter of Maritime Silk Road China with regards to Pakistan Economic Corridor and China Myanmar Economic Corridor are glaring examples enclusively in this region. They have heralded metamorphosis in the pearls of the string by providing an alternate route making Indian Ocean a hub for trans-regional connectivity through multifold alternative routes. History is witnessed for the benefits of certain alteration in the routes such the Panama Canal and Suez Canal. To find such alternation of routes in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has caused a competition between China and India which can have multiple effects.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Peace, Regionalism, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Asia and Indian Ocean

1560. Space Militarization Race among China-Russia and USA: Implications for South Asia

Author:: Fazal Abbas Awan and Umbreen Javaid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The launch of Sputnik demarked the beginning of the space age and also the beginning of the militarization of the outer space. During the Cold War, the two strategic competitors exploited the outer space for their military purposes, which initiated an intense space race, lasted till the end of it. Due to intense competition in space, different satellites for photographic reconnaissance, surveillance, communication and intelligence were launched into the outer space and space became the area of conflict between the arch enemies. The major development in the militarization of space came under the President Reagan‘s period, when Strategic Defence Initiative was announced in 1983. This was the first step towards weaponizing the common heritage of the human being. The power trends in the militarization of outer space have also shown its implication on security of South Asia. China, under the consideration of security dilemma, has contributed its part in the militarization of space. As a result, India in collaboration with U.S is also crawling towards developing its space power, which has serious implications on the security of Pakistan. Therefore, the strategic competition among nations has resulted into their massive investment in the developing their space assets for military purposes and brought a paradigm shift in it. This research paper analyzes that space has become a fourth medium of warfare. The new plans from the major powers to utilize the outer space to dominate and to create their hegemony in the outer space will deteriorate the fragile peace in South Asia, as well as endanger the peace of the world. The design of present research is exploratory and for more empirical analysis, study also based on philosophical assumptions.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Space, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1561. Institutional Failure: A Challenge to Good Governance in Pakistan

Author:: Marium Kamal and Sarfraz Batool
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Good governance is a desirable process as well as end-result of participatory democracy. For the last three decades „good governance‟ is more frequently used in the studies of political science because it is considered that good governance is a key indicat to judge the conducting of public institutions (that how efficiently and effectively they manage public recourses and administer public affairs). The existing literature on this subject matter identifies that good governance leads to sustainable development. According to international financial institution e.g. World Bank, lack of good governance in the third world countries is the main cause of their underdevelopment. Pakistan (one of third world countries) is a federation with diversified ethno-linguistic identities and since its emergence as an independent state; it has been facing the governance related issues seriously. This conceptual and analytical study aims to explain that how the failure and dysfunctionality of public institutions itself disrupt the process of good governance in Pakistan.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Democracy, Institutions, and State Building
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1562. Indo- US Strategic Objectives in Afghanistan: Security Calculus of Pakistan

Author:: Muhammed Tayyab Zia
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Washington and New Delhi have converged interests in Afghanistan. US aspires a greater Indian role in Afghanistan in the wake of its withdrawal from Afghanistan and India, in order to pose itself an international power, seeks in Afghanistan a deeper involvement. Although both of the states, India and the US, have devised a commonality of interests since 9/11, yet since the current US Administration bilateral ties have been intensified to the extent where Pakistan have severe implications. US President Trump‟s verdict of regionalization of Afghan issue has implied concerns for Islamabad. Pakistani authorities relate the terrorist activities in the country, particularly insurgency in Baluchistan with the role of various powers‟ role in Afghanistan. Strategic and security related objectives and concerns would be discussed in this article.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1563. Theory of Separation of Power: Balancing the Civil- Military Relations in Pakistan 2013-2018

Author:: Zahid Mahmood and Muhammad Iqbal Chawla
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: While broadly speaking the framework of separation of power is not fully executed which has caused institutional tangle in the history of Pakistan, however, the main objective of this research paper is to re-investigate the relationship between the civil and military leadership in the period 2013-2018. The elemental premise of this article is that the civilian and military leadership has generally squabbled during the civilian rule. This paper contends that this wrangle has left a majority of people of Pakistan with undelivered promises and their woes have generally multiplied. Generally speaking, perception abounds that form over substance approach proliferates in the present democratic set-up. There is an impression that the military schemes surreptitiously to destabilize the civil governments if the latter does not play to the whims of the former. The relations between the two power-centres embittered during the period 2013-2018 and it is generally believed that such tensions led to events like the dharna (sit – in) by the PTI/PAT, Tehreek-i-Labbayak protests/sit-ins and the disputed election results of 2018. Right or wrong, but there is an impression that military has generally tried to transgress its limits and meddled in the affairs of the civil administration in order to punish the ‘corrupt civilians’ for their corrupt practices. The relationship of civilian and military leadership in this article discusses specifically the instances which created tussles between both the leadership during the 2013-2018 periods. Again, the civilian leadership is facing the charges of corruption and since the matter is sub- judice, this paper constraints from considering these politicians corrupt or innocent but the main argument of the paper is that whether it is direct or indirect military interference the main allegation against the politicians is corruption. Therefore, this paper will try to find the answer to the following queries: what is the conduct of the civil governments how the civilians irritate the military and other institutions why the military takes interest into the civilian matters and why military needs to policing the civil governments and what factors caused the downfall of Mian Nawaz Sharif government. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that the theory of separation of power is not fully implemented in Pakistan which has been causing institutional clash and powerful institutions overpower the weaker and in case of Pakistan’s parliament is the weakest institution. However, this paper will like to recommend to go for the basics of democracy ‘Separation of power’ to ensure continuation and consolidation of democracy.
Topic:: Civil Society, Governance, Political Power Sharing, Military Government, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1564. Religious Tourism and Peace Building: Kartarpur Corridor as a Peace Symbol in India-Pakistan Conflict and Inter-Faith Harmony

Author:: Asma Qadir Hasan and Iram Khalid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Sri Kartarpur Sahib is one of the most sacred religious sites for over twenty-seven million followers of Sikh religion around the world. This religious site known as gurdwara became a part of the premises of the state of Pakistan according to the partition plan in 1947. Sikh pilgrims desiring to visit this sacred place have always found it difficult due to the tensions between the two states of India and Pakistan. Finally, in August 2018, the newly elected Pakistani government under premiership of Mr. Imran Khan announced its intention to build a connecting corridor from Dera Baba Nanak in India to Kartarpur Sahib for the Sikh pilgrims. While it was generally considered a highly positive gesture towards building peace in the region, there was some negative response from the Indian side in particular. This paper discusses brief history of Kartarpur Sahib, the implications of the decision of constructing corridor by the Pakistan government and its importance in building peace between the two states and creating inter-faith harmony within Pakistan. An exploratory, historical and descriptive method has been applied. Besides consulting books and newspaper reports on this issue, two interviews were conducted to analyze contemporary situation. The results show that the move by the Pakistani government can very well be considered a way forward in peace building process and hurdles in implementation of a peace-oriented gesture need to be removed to promote inter-faith and inter-state harmony.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Religion, Bilateral Relations, Tourism, Conflict, Peace, and Symbolism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, India, and Asia

1565. Politics of Nawab of Kalabagh Malik Amir Muhammad Khan (1910-1967)

Author:: Javid Raza Naseem and Abdul Basit Mujahid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Political ideology of Nawab of Kalabagh Malik Amir Muhammad Khan (1910-67) was based on the perception of a highly educated but conservative feudal. He advocated status quo in almost all the matters including foreign relations. He advised Ayub Khan not to switch over to China because it would antagonise U.S.A. He was not so optimist about the solution of Kashmir issue. His pragmatic approach favoured the peaceful method of negotiation instead of confrontation. General perception portrays him as a typical landlord who was averse to education and freedom of press. Evidences from history reveal that there is a partial truth in it. He liked a responsible press which should not be left unbridled. Bengalis of East Pakistan made the bigger chunk of the total population of Pakistan. He, as a non-Bengali of West Pakistan, was apprehensive of their strength in numbers. Anti-One Unit politicians were secessionists in the eyes of Nawab so were dealt severely. He treated his political rivals according to their strength and ambitions. He was suspicious of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto because he (Bhutto) was too ambitious to be trusted. He allegedly victimized Chaudhri Zahoor Elahi because Chaudhri had desired to replace him. Mawlana A. Sattar Niazi, Habibullah Paracha and Pir of Makhad Sharif used to challenge his supremacy in his native area so Nawab had to deal them harshly. It can be derived that his political outlook reflected the mindset of a typical feudal lord.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Political Activism, Elections, Leadership, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1566. Transitionary Aspects and Population Dynamics in Rural Punjab: Demographic and Social Dimensions

Author:: Ayesha Farooq
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This paper discusses the socio-demographics of a village in Punjab named „Mohla‟. Socio- demographic variables include description of age distribution, sex composition, family structure, castes and marital statuses of the people. Description of respondents‟ attributes such as educational and occupational statuses are also inclusive of this study. The researchers used quantitative approach and data collection was done through probability survey to ensure objectivity and reliability of the results. Household Enumeration Forms were used to collect the information regarding age, sex, households and castes. On the other hand, interview schedule was developed to gather information from the respondents. Decade-wise sources of water supply and domestic material possessions are also analyzed. These time series data are indicative of the development that has taken place over the fifty years, this is expected to have influence on the socio- structural changes in the rural community.
Topic:: Civil Society, Gender Issues, Population, Inequality, and Caste
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1567. War on Terror: Repercussions for Pakistan

Author:: Muhammad Shamshad, Amjad Abbas Khan, and Muhammad Hassan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The US-Taliban peace agreement has rekindled hopes for peace in Afghanistan. After fighting for almost two decades, the US has agreed to enter into a peace deal with its one time worst enemy i.e. Taliban. Pakistan has been a facilitator in bringing a peace deal to Afghanistan. Its role has been well recognised by both US and Taliban. Pakistan has long been associated with this issue; first as US partner in the war against Taliban and now as a facilitator to bring US and Taliban to a peace deal. It seems quite pertinent to re-evaluate Pakistan„s role in war against terrorism and its repercussions for Pakistan. The present research has explored the effects that Pakistan has faced after becoming the partner of war on terror initiated by the then American President George Walker Bush in 2001 soon after the incident of 9/11. It has explained how this participation of Pakistan has caused a colossal damage to the social, economic, religious and political domains of Pakistan and how the partnership has tarnished the image of Pakistan in the comity of nations. Additionally, impact of war on terror has been judged through examining the current status of internal and external security threats, soaring poverty, restrained development policies, increased hatred against the Americans and national disintegration. The methods of describing the facts and figures in the existing body of knowledge i.e published books, research articles, newspapers and published theses and then comparing and analysing them on the basis of personal opinion and other data, have been used to conclude the topic.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Taliban, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1568. Creation of New Provinces: It’s Socio-Political Implication for Pakistan

Author:: Chanzeb Awan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The existing political and administrative structure of Pakistan was inherited from British Empire which was crafted keeping in view the population and area of the entire subcontinent; and fundamentally constituted with an objective of retaining foreign control and promote imperialistic interests. Thus demand/ voices for new provinces have sound historic roots and vivid genesis emanating from ethnic and demographic makeup of Pakistan. Successive governments tried to put the country on a smooth track of development but could not achieve political and economic stability. Domination of few ethnic groups, sense of alienation, lack of justice, corruption, un-equitable allocation of development funds and unwieldy federating units in terms of population and area have been the intrinsic factors giving periodic impetus to the demands of new provinces in Pakistan. Each province has its peculiar dynamics; therefore, its historic, demographic and socio-political perspectives have been emphasized in the article to establish linkages with the genesis of demands for creating new provinces. Commonly debated issues are highlighted to explore as to why there is a requirement of creating new provinces in Pakistan. National concerns are also outlined to signify that disparity and discrimination driven movement may not be termed as linguistic or ethnic otherwise anti state notions may get stimulated. Towards the end, socio political implications have been analyzed and few recommendations have been made to address the issue of creating new provinces in Pakistan.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Governance, National & provincial initiatives, and Political System
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1569. BRI & CPEC: Strategic & Economic Depth for Pakistan

Author:: Hafeez Ullah Khan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: CPEC project (China – Pakistan Economic Corridor) being the flagship project of Belt & Road Initiative initially witnessed a planned investment of $ 46.6 billion which Beijing intitated and now it is extended to $62 billion and would be completed in the next few years. CPEC is not only aimed at connecting Kashgar to Gwadar but it is also considered to be the Zipper of Central Asia with South Asia, Moscow and Beijing with the Middle East and Africa. CPEC is specifically envisioned beneficial for economic security for Pakistan in a crucial time when Pakistan is isolated and badly damaged by the War on Terror since September 2001. Islamabad and Beijing have developed strong ties despite their ideological differences. This research work sheds light on the economic cooperation between the two neighboring states i.e. China and Pakistan in the context of Beijing's huge investment in Pakistan. The study analyzes CPEC from political, economic, and social perspectives. The study reveals that CPEC is the venture of economic and strategic depth for Pakistan.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Economic Growth, Economic Development, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1570. Indian Constitutional Rearrangements in Jammu & Kashmir and the Responses of Kashmiri Diaspora

Author:: Lubna Haroon and Nazir Hussain
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: In the aftermath of August 5, 2019, almost the entire population of Indian-held Jammu & Kashmir was placed under stark lockdown with pro-freedom and mainstream politicians arrested. This was to prevent any outbreak in response to the revocation of region‟s special status. There were only two indigenous constituencies left for campaign and raising voices; „Pakistani-administered‟ J&K and Kashmiri diaspora. The diaspora‟s feeling of being backstabbed created a sense of dispossession and alienation. Kashmiri diaspora across the globe mobilised on various fronts ranging from diplomatic, social, political, academic, and media. Though they managed to highlight the Kashmir conflict internationally, but they could not make some tangible impact as India‟s constitutional re-arrangements and the human rights violations in Jammu & Kashmir continued unabated.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, Diaspora, Social Movement, Constitution, and Protests
Political Geography:: India and Asia

1571. Analytical Review of Pak-China Strategic Cooperation 1950-2017

Author:: Muhammad Azhar Naeem and Abdul Majid
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The present study is aimed to provide analytical review of Pak-China strategic cooperation starting from 1950 to 2017. Pakistan started to establish her strategic relations with the outer world soon after her independence in 1947 in order to maintain balance of power in the region. Bilateral ties remained very encouraging from the beginning of Pak-China relations. However, bilateral ties touch its heights in the decade of 1960s. After 1960s, bilateral relation turned to diplomatic relations because of changing world scenario i.e. cold war, terrorism, One China Policy and change of world order. Still China helped Pakistan financially, technologically and assisted in developing nuclear program. In 21st century, relations became stronger of and both the nations started helping each other to materialize their goals in diverse fields. One such example is the implementation of (China – Pakistan Economic Corridor) CPEC which is expected to change the fate of both the countries in future.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and Asia

1572. China Pakistan Ties: Challenges and Implications for the region (2013-2018)

Author:: Rabia Bashir
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China’s active role in South Asia is based on a “win-win” approach which is also beneficial for the economic progress of the regional states. China’s rapid economic integration represents its intention to maintain peace and stability in its vicinity. To hold its presence in the Indian Ocean region it is developing strong economic and trade ties with South Asian states. This region has become a center of attention where the interests of major powers China, India and the United States intersects. The joint venture of “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” strategically holds huge significance for China, Pakistan and major powers like India and the US being rival to China. This corridor will enhance the economic conditions of not only China and Pakistan but also the other developing and the landlocked states of CARs and Afghanistan.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Peace, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and Asia

1573. Dynamics of Political Discussion of Voters in 2013 General Election in Pakistan

Author:: Rana Umair Nadeem and Hafiz Ejaz Bashir
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Mass Media is among the major source to disseminate the political information in South Asia. Political news informs citizens regarding policies of political parties. Public and voters rely on political news on television, radio, social media and newspapers to know about the political world. This study examines the effects of mass media on the voters‟ participation in political discussion in general election 2013 in Pakistan. This study explores the process by which voters‟ behavior regarding political discussion is affected by political news exposure. For data collection, cross sectional survey method was used. The survey participants / respondents are primary school teacher voters in Lahore Division. Multistage purposive sampling technique was used for taking the sample of voters.
Topic:: Elections, Media, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1574. CPEC and Re-Orientation of China-Pakistan Relations

Author:: Muhammad Ikram
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The ̳One Belt One Road‘ term refers to ̳The Maritime Silk Road and the Silk Road Economic Belt. This mega initiative was announced by Chinese president, Xi Jiping, in September 2013 during his official state visit to Kazakhstan. Pakistan is most important pillar of this Chinese initiative. Under the One Belt One Road framework, several corridors will be built in future. Whereas, with the development of OBOR, regional economies will boost up to $2.5 trillion and more than 4.4 billion population will get benefits across 65 countries. The Silk Road Economic Belt will link China, Central Asia, Russia, and Europe through the Persian Gulf and South East Asia and Indian Ocean. However, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will be built to connect the Pakistan's Port Gawadar with Chinese city of Kashagar in autonomous province Xinjiang. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project is a game changer for the region and particularly for China and Pakistan, through the development of roads, railways, oil and gas pipe lines. Thus, the project brings wealth and prosperity across the region, particularly in Pakistan. But on the other hand, Pakistan is facing serious internal and external threats from terrorism and extremism since 2001. This work is an attempt to enlighten the prospects of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and constraints in the way of this mega projects.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Peace, Economic Development, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and Asia

1575. Hindutva in India: Rise of Bigotry against Muslims

Author:: Inayat Kalim, Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi, and Areeja Syed
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The preface of the Indian Constitution declares India a sovereign, democratic, republic, and socialist state. Later on through the 42nd amendment, socialist and secular terms were incorporated into the constitution. Indian social order is known to be a multi-cultural and multi- religious society on account of an assortment of castes, religions, and cultures. Within all that disparities, Muslims form the main minority in the state. However, a clear-cut pluralistic discrepancy between the theory and practice of the Indian constitution is obvious. Indian Muslims are deprived of cultural, religious, and political rights due to the escalation of Hindutva policies throughout the Modi reign. The continued Kashmir dispute and the recent Pulwama attack intensified India- Pakistan animosity and the root cause seems to be the rise of Hindutva in India. For that reason, the authors delve into the matter and strive to present a descriptive analysis on the rise of Hindutva in India and the illicit silence of the international actors on this grave Indian fanaticism.
Topic:: Civil Society, Religion, Minorities, Discrimination, and Secularism
Political Geography:: India and Asia

1576. India-Pakistan Relations: Can Guru Nanak be a Factor of Peace?

Author:: Tawseef Ahmad Mir
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Guru Nanak Dev was born in November, 1469. He grew up to be the founder of Sikhism along with other nine Gurus. It soon emerged as an independent faith, and instantly won many followers to its fold. Therefore, the purpose of this research paper will be to delve into Guru Nanak’s role and appreciating his importance as far as bridging the wide gulf of enmity particularly between India and Pakistan and in the wider South Asia region in general. As all his life he focussed on fostering amity, peace, brotherhood, tolerance and harmony among people of various backgrounds, his teachings therefore promise to have all the necessary ingredients of peace which is currently wanting in the region.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, India, and Asia

1577. The Rise of Extremism in Pakistan: International Dynamics

Author:: Nasreen Akhter and Musarat Amin
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Extremism in Pakistan has been the outcome of so-called Jihadists who wanted continuous recruitment for the Afghan-Soviet war(1979-89) and madrassas were settled with primary aim of propagation of so-called Jihad. Pakistan, being an Islamic Republic had already fertile ground for the promotion of Islamic ideology but this unfortunately was misconstrued by U.S. funded war which later turned Pakistani society into an abyss of extremism. Wave of sectarianism, drugs and political instability fomented extremism in the society. Internal strife coupled with international dynamics, badly distorted Pakistan‟s image internationally. That is the reason terrorists enjoyed support of masses despite military operations against them. This paper highlights that how the extremism rooted into Pakistani society caused wave of extremism, terrorism and hate. Pakistan faced serious challenges to economy and internal stability. Pakistan waged counterterrorism operations under the National Action Plan (NAP) but there is a need of counter-extremism policy that will normalize the society and regain its potential to excel.
Topic:: Religion, Terrorism, Discrimination, Conflict, Ideology, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1578. Provincial Pride, Public Outcry: The Creation of the Lahore High Court and Judicial Development in South Asia

Author:: Yaqoob Khan Bangash
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The creation of a modern judicial system is one of the most enduring legacy of British rule in South Asia, especially the Punjab. In the Punjab, the judicial system not only ingrained itself quickly but the province soon became the most litigious in India. Despite being often labelled as the ‘loyal’ province, progress in its higher judiciary was slow. Even though the Punjab got a Chief Court in 1866, it was only after decades of representations by the judges of the Punjab Chief Court, the Government of the Punjab and finally the Government of India, that Whitehall granted a High Court to the province in 1919, much later than other comparable provinces. The reasons behind such a delay, the long-drawn process, and the final upgradation of the Punjab Chief Court as the Lahore High Court, merit study as they shed critical light on the pattern of governance, development of public interest, and the ultimate role and impact of the judiciary in the Punjab.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Governance, Legal Theory, Local, State Building, Judiciary, and Community
Political Geography:: India and Asia

1579. Inquiry on the Effect of Federalism in Patterns of Internal Migration in Nepal: Study from Province 1

Author:: Dipesh Karki and Riya Regmi
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Nepal became federal state in 2008 with the aspiration of inclusive-development and reduction of economic disparity between rural and urban parts of the country. However using qualitative approach, paper finds that after federalism, especially with the contentious choice of provincial capital and subsequent tax increase, there has been an overall decline in business in rural towns of the province, leading to the increased displacement of the youth populace from rural town to the provincial capital. By performing in-depth interviews of 22 respondents from province 1 and carrying out thematic analysis the paper further finds that unplanned dozer development, increased corruption, and lack of improvement in the education and health sector has further contributed in internal migration. Overall the broad theme of unmet expectation emerged as the main factor that led general populace to be displaced from their roots
Topic:: Migration, Governance, State Building, and Federalism
Political Geography:: Asia and Nepal

1580. Paradox of Female Labor Force Participation in South Asia

Author:: Hina Mubeen, Arshad Syed Karim, and Sadaf Alam
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Worldwide, startling gender disparities exist in employment. There has been a shift in gender culture in the present era which requires both men and women to have paid jobs and share household responsibilities. South Asian region with leading economies like India, Bangladesh and Nepal, presents an interesting paradox for research. Hence, the aim of this conceptual paper is to understand the push and pull factors which influence female labor force participation in the South Asian region in purview of various social, cultural and institutional impediments to engaging into their economic role. Specifically in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the female labor force participation rates are significantly lower than the other South Asian nations, scarce conceptual as well as empirical researches have been conducted till date to analyze the underlying reasons and consequences of gender inequality or in labor force participation. The article highlights that in case of majority of the developing countries of South Asia, there are numerous complications associated with prevalent gender stereotypes within the society and the division of labor. The author argues that it fails to acknowledge women’s triple role in the society. Lack of adequate institutional framework can be one of the prime reasons of low scores for the South Asian region that restrains women to enter productive employment sectors. Discrimination against women in labor force can be costly in the course of development. If properly utilized in the labor market, with the provision of an enabling environment, this huge workforce can make significant contributions to the economic development and growth of the region. Ultimately, it would aid in attaining the Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger from the world.
Topic:: Development, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Economic Growth, Feminism, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

1581. Macroeconomic Determinents of Crime in South Asian Countries: A Panal Data Approach

Author:: Rana Hazma Gull, Kauser Perveen, and Amber Bakhsh Basit
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This research explores the economic determinants of crime in case of a panel of South Asian countries (Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh). To empirically determine the relationship between crime and its determinants, data for the concerned variables are collected for the period of 2003 to 2017 from different sources like World Development Indicator (WDI), National Police Survey and UNESCO. In this study, education, economic growth, population and unemployment are used as the determinants of crime. To find out the relationship Random Effect Model (REM) and Fixed Effect Model (FEM) models are constructed. After applying diagnostic test, it is found that Fixed Effect Model is appropriate. But the FEM model violates the assumptions of classical linear regression model (CLRM) because there is hertoscedasticity and autocorrelation problem in the data. To robust these problems, feasible generalized least square (FGLS) model has been applied. The results of FGLS revealed that education has negative and significant impact on crime. Contrary, population, economic growth and unemployment have positive and significant impact on crime. The study recommends that government should give preference to education sector. On the other hand, government should control the population growth and unemployment rate.
Topic:: Crime, Education, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Models
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

1582. Impact of Gas Conservation on Aggregate Economy and Trade of Pakistan

Author:: Shahbaz Sharif, Muhammad Shakeel, and Qasim Saleem
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The present study assesses the gas-use based aggregate production framework to find out the co- integration among the variables and thereby estimate the error correction mechanism of the empirical models. Johansen’s based co-integration test has been applied with VECM based causality test to assess the long run and causal relationship for yearly time series data over 1980- 2014 for Pakistan. The empirical findings demonstrate a statistically significant co-integration to exist among real economic production/GDP, labor, capital and gas-use in both the models with and without exports. The findings of causality test depict long-run unidirectional relationship from labor, capital stock, gas-use and export towards the real GDP. The feedback connection between gas-use and real GDP is also found statistically significant in the short-term. The findings imply a warning for reduction of gas-use via energy conservation policies which may reduce exportable production. The reduction of gas use will downward curtail the economic growth, directly and via exports’ multiplier effect upon GDP, indirectly. Therefore, development of new energy technologies has been suggested to balance the supply-demand gap and thereby promisingly expanding the export-led sector for triggering the Economic output/GDP growth and sustainability of energy resources in the country.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, Gas, Conservation, Renewable Energy, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1583. The Logic of Geopolitics in American-Russian Relations

Author:: Allen C. Lynch
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: One of Zbigniew Brzezinski’s first requests as President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor in 1977 was to ask the Pentagon for its plans – including targets – for nuclear war against “Russia”. Brzezinski was outraged when he was presented with the plan for nuclear war against the Soviet Union. He could not believe that the U.S. military had no plans to spe- cifically weaken the Russian core of the Soviet empire. For the Pentagon planners, Russia and the Soviet Union were one and the same.1 I begin with this anecdote because it reflects well an enduring geopolitical logic to American-Russian relations: American policy toward Russia, whether it be in the Tsarist, Soviet, or post-Soviet period, has not been based on opposing a strong Russian state per se. (That state married to communist ideology was something else altogether.) In the after- math of the Russian Civil War, for instance, the United States delayed recognition of Baltic independence until 1922, two years after Soviet Russia had recognized the independence of Estonia in the Treaty of Tartu, on the grounds that Polish and Finnish independence apart nothing should be done to call into question the territorial continuity of the Russian Em- pire.2 Indeed, American officials seldom viewed the Soviet Union as an empire, as the Pen- tagon war plans just cited illustrate. Historically, the logic of geopolitics i.e., the influence of organization in space on international political relationships has often tended to frame American-Russian relations in terms of complementarities of interest. Of course, geopolitics is not the only logic in AmericanRussian relations; ideology, domestic politics, as well as vested institutional interests all play their role in varying degrees under varying circum- stances. But historically, insofar as geopolitical factors have prevailed, American-Russian relations have generally been harmonious, if also remote and indirect in nature. (By indirect I mean that each sees the other mainly in terms of other powers or processes, e.g., the state of the balance of power in Europe and/or Northeast Asia.) Let us recall that Russia, whether it be under Imperial, Soviet, or post-Soviet auspices, is an essentially continental Eurasian power. Its primary state interest for centuries has been to build and consolidate a trans-continental, multi-national and imperial state while also man- aging international power politics with a series of powerful adversaries throughout Asia and Europe. Above all, Russia sought to ensure that no powerful coalition of external (and in Eu- rope technologically superior) powers could unite to challenge the Russian Empire’s territorial or political integrity. Russian diplomats and rulers thus learned to play the European balance of power with considerable finesse (e.g., the Treaty of Nystadt, 1721, under Peter the Great; the Congress of Vienna, 1815, under Alexander I; the Treaty of Rapallo between Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany, 1922; the Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact, 1939; the Grand Alliance with the United States and Great Britain, 1941–45; and the Helsinki Final Act, 1975, to name just a few instances). As with Great Britain, maintaining a favorable European balance of power has been central to Russian statecraft.3 The United States, by contrast, is functionally an insular power (albeit on a continental scale) with respect to the rest of the world, surrounded as it is by two great oceans and militarily weak and isolated neighbors (i.e., Canada and Mexico). America’s primary foreign policy concern throughout most of its history has thus been, like Russia’s, to prevent the emergence of a hostile European hegemon that could threaten the country’s expansion in North America and its own hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. Once the United States had stabilized its independence from Britain after the War of 1812, U.S. and British geopo- litical interests tended to coincide.4 In this context, American and Russian interests have more often been complementary than antagonistic. It has been primarily the intrusion of ideological elements, reflecting for example Americans’ global democratic aspirations or the Soviet Union’s ultimate objec- tive of the triumph of communism worldwide, that have rendered the bilateral relationship intransigent and even dangerous.5
Topic:: International Relations, Cold War, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Post Cold War, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Soviet Union, North America, and United States of America

1584. Fluctuating Images of Enemies and Friends: Abkhazia, With Turkish Cyprus’ Lens

Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: Since1the 2008 Russian-Georgian war over breakaway regions, journalists talk about the undergoing colonization of Abkhazia by Russia through a number of processes: finan- cial and military aid, missiles installation in the region, infrastructure and telecommuni- cations control, Russian business and migration. Although, for various security reasons, welcomed by the Abkhaz elites while building their political entity against Georgians, one cannot but think of parallels with the Northern Cyprus developments over the last 30 years. In a similar process, Turkey sponsored the construction of the Turkish Cyprus de facto state. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, considerable resources were used to ‘prove’ the affinity with Turkey and Turks, to construct the enemy image of Greek Cypriots and, in so doing, to legitimate the separatist cause and friendship with the sponsor-State. However, anthropological studies in the North of the island show how living side by side with settlers from Turkey modified Turkish Cypriots’ self-identification as distinct from their new neighbours. Turkish Cypriots of all political convictions are uncomfortable and count critical stories about “people from Turkey.” They distinguish “us” Cypriots from “them” the settlers and simultaneously the image of former ‘enemy’, the Greek Cypriots, is vested with less hostile shapes. A civic identification develops as collective perceptions change. This, in turn, has implications for political cleavages as new options for (de)constructing the de facto state and new party programs emerge. How this identity transformation oc- curs? What triggers changing policies towards our enemies and friends? The article’s objective is to map and compare the ‘colonization’ process that took place in Northern Cyprus and the one observed in Abkhazia and to detect changes that occur in the image of ‘friends and enemies of the nation’ during this process and in the ethnic versus civic State-building endeavours. How external factors affect these transformations? Following Anthony Smith and George Schöpflin, enemies and friends are constantly redis- covered and re-interpreted, and their (re)construction account for “our” territory, justify col- lective claims and mobilize collective action. These fluctuations adapt to the needs of the moment, to an external threat, and to structural changes. When fluctuations in perceiving the ‘Other’ take place and how do they translate into the political construction of de facto states? Although the Abkhazian case is recent and in the making, establishing parallels with the Turkish Cyprus case may shed light on patterns of fluctuating nation-building processes, and by the same token, in (de facto) state-building.
Topic:: Development, Conflict, Rivalry, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Cyprus

1585. Economic Transformation and Privatization

Author:: Richard J. Hunter Jr. and Leo V. Ryan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: In its simplest form, privatization is de-statism – that is, removing the state as the owner of property and assets. From the outset of the transformation process in Poland, significant systemic limitations to the privatization process existed1. A developed market infrastructure was absent. Businesses that were being prepared for privatization lacked the ability to conduct market research, and advisory and consulting services were in short supply. Procedures and benchmarks for property valuation were almost non-existent. The financial infrastructure was immature and data on the profitability of firms being prepared for privatization was problematic. In addition, both the quality and level of competency of civil servants (the nomenklatura) and private managers remained low-largely due to the negative legacy of Poland’s communist past.
Topic:: Economics, Privatization, Governance, and Economic Transformation
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

1586. Micro level factors leading to a migratory decision: Migrant groups in the Czech Republic

Author:: Zivka Deleva and Antonin Mikes
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: Multidisciplinary work has yielded a variety of attempts to formulate unified theoretical frameworks to aid our understanding of the complex flow of individuals under the rubric of migration. While these attempts have greatly enhanced our understanding of determi- nates of aggregate flows comparatively little is known about remigration trends, second generation returnees or migrant resettlement during multistage migratory phases. Taking into account the reality that migrant itineraries are continuously under development and are subject to change, this work seeks to clarify our understanding of migratory flows into the Czech Republic with a particular focus on highly educated migrants2. This has been made possible by analysis of the responses collected from a snowball sample of migrants in the Czech Republic3. In the interest of developing a better understanding of the complex web of flows and micro flows within and across the target region the researchers have targeted several dis- tinct migrant groups. These groups have been divided into distinct linguistic groupings; Slovak speakers, Russian speakers (including Ukrainians and Belarusians) and English Language speakers (from a variety of source countries)
Topic:: Migration, Immigrants, Language, Identity, and Microaggression
Political Geography:: Europe and Czech Republic

1587. Stereotypes of the political left and right in Hungary

Author:: Nora Anna Lantos and Nora Orsolya Balazs
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: The meaning, perception and psychological correlates of liberal-conservative or left- wing – right-wing ideologies are very popular topics in political psychology. This direction of research focuses on the affective/ motivational background of party and ideological preferences, assuming essential psychological differences behind them. These differ- ences were detected by multiple methods in previous studies. Some, using self-reporting questionnaires, focus on the personality, attitude or value differences between partici- pants with a left-wing or right-wing orientation1, 2, 3, while others place the emphasis on the general perception of differences between leftist-rightist orientation and the attributions given to them4, 5. The latter approach is related to the concept of stereotype.
Topic:: Leftist Politics, Identity, Stereotypes, Partisanship, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

1588. Georgia’s Road to NATO: Everything but Membership?

Author:: Marion Kipiani
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: The ongoing crisis in Ukraine continues to jolt the architectural plans of Euro-Atlantic security developed over the past 25 years. Predictions of a “new Cold War,” and anxiety over Russia’s ambitions in its neighborhood, have led to calls for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to step up efforts to ensure security on the European continent and protect its newer members in close geographic proximity to the Russian Federation. After more than two decades, during which NATO was transforming into a military alliance fo- cused on out-of-area missions, the collective defense at the heart of the 1949 Washington Treaty has suddenly appeared to regain its relevance. Since the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation and the escalation of military conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region a year ago, NATO has demonstrated its commitment to the security of its Eastern European member states through reassurance measures that have included increased air and maritime patrols, as well as the rotation of ground forces. There are however countries partnering with NATO – but not covered by its collective defense protective umbrella – which fall into a gray zone of influence between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic allies. These countries, including Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine itself, are particularly concerned by Russia’s strategic objective of keeping a sphere of i
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Georgia, and North America

1589. Where are We on the European Map? Comparing Public Service Motivation in Central and Eastern Europe with Neighboring Countries

Author:: Palina Prysmakova
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: Despite some similarities within regions, the composition of the public sector differs across the world. This also applies to the working culture of this sector. While recogniz- ing the desire to help others and to improve one’s personal financial situation as essen- tial work motives, all around, the public sector, employees emphasize the importance of these purposes with varying degrees of strength in different areas. Shaped to a large extent by the communist past, the public sector of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries continues to stand out amongst other countries on the continent. Much has been said about the historical determinants that have shaped the motivation of people from the region. While acknowledging the significance of the former regime, this article aims to analyze the current state of the public sector workforce in CEE and to examine its present distinctions from the private sector. The main research question of this article is what type of motivation drives public sec- tor employees and whether this motivation is different from the private business sector. Thus, the article compares intrinsic and extrinsic work motives of both sectors within the region and contrasts them to other European countries. Being a part of a larger compara- tive research project, this particular piece is devoted to CEE countries from the former Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc, namely, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine.
Topic:: Public Sector, Private Sector, Public Service, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: Europe

1590. Reconsidering Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century

Author:: Teimuraz Papaskiri
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: The Russian occupation of Crimea in February-March 2014, marked the beginning of a new phase of tension between the Western world and Russia. Although it was predicted several years prior to the conflict that Ukraine would be Russia’s next victim,1 nobody paid much attention to these warnings. Thus, the Russian moves proved surprising for most Western societies, especially for the leaders of Western countries. It effectively ended the inefficient policy of “reset”, which was actually stillborn, because of the inability of the American administration to understand Vladimir Putin’s person and his goals. In June 2001, Putin met US President George W. Bush, who said after this meeting: “I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country.”2 President Bush was ridiculed for these words, yet even nine years later, he did not acknowledge his mistake. In 2010, he said: “I did not make a mistake in [my] assessment of Russian leader Vladimir Putin [...] Putin became a different person [...] I think, to a certain extent, he changed.”3 It seems that George W. Bush was not able to figure out that it was not Putin who had changed. It was the fact that U.S. and Eu- ropean leaders did not grasp which country Vladimir Putin was “deeply committed” to. For the Russian president, “his country” meant the Soviet Union, not the Russian Federation. He even officially declared that, “the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopo- litical catastrophe of the century”.4 (Emphasis added – T.P.) This phrase was not just mere nostalgia for the “good old times”, otherwise no one in his right mind would ever call the break-up of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” When talking about the 20th century, during which two world wars cost more than 80 million lives combined, the break-up of one empire with nearly no casualties cannot be considered “the greatest catastrophe.” Therefore, those words meant that Putin’s intention was to re- store, at least, to some extent, the “old greatness” of the Soviet Empire.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Empire, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

1591. Russia’s Peacekeeping Operations in the Post-Soviet Space: “Mirotvorchestvo” Applied

Author:: Agnieszka Legucka
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: According to a general definition, a conflict is a process in which one party perceives that its interests are being opposed or negatively affected by another party1. Conflict is manifested through adversarial social action involving two or more actors and the ex- pression of differences is often accompanied by intense hostilities. Most significantly, pro- tracted conflict arises from failure to manage an antagonistic relationship2. A special kind of conflict involves force being used by both parties to the conflict. Armed conflicts in the neighbourhood of Russia emerged during the disintegration of the USSR, when parts of former Soviet republics began to claim independence. This is when Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria decided to form inde- pendent states, thus infringing on the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Mol- dova – all states with international recognition. The parties on both sides of these ethnic and political conflicts had been attempting to resolve these situations by themselves, but the management process was then joined by “third parties”: Russia, Iran, Turkey, CIS and other international organizations such as the UN and the OSCE, and, recently, also the EU.
Topic:: Hegemony, Peacekeeping, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Post-Soviet Europe

1592. The Kaliningrad Region – Key to Security in East-Central Europe

Author:: Krzysztof Zegota
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: Political transformations in East-Central Europe after 1989, and the advancing pro- cesses of integration, have resulted in a significant increase in the importance of the Ka- liningrad region of the Russian Federation for the stabilisation of this part of Europe in two dimensions: the Kaliningrad region provides a unique example and a specific “testing ground” for cooperation between the European Union (EU) and Russia, and also plays a crucial geopolitical role for the southern part of the Baltic Sea region. For the Russian Federation, this region has become especially important in view of the integration pro- cesses occurring in East-Central Europe over the last twenty-five years. The European integration process has been ongoing, with significant milestones marked by two stages of the EU expansion in 2004 and 2007, when a series of East-Central European states gained membership. An increase in the cohesion of this part of Europe was also affected by progressive Euro-Atlantic integration, a subsequent step of which was the eastward expansion of NATO in 1999 and in 2004. Thus, the area of European and Euro-Atlantic inte- gration significantly neared the borders of the Russian Federation. It is important that the Kaliningrad region has entered into intensive interactions with various entities from the EU member states, becoming involved – to some extent – in the network of relations with the EU: through the integration of local governments, universities, non-governmental organi- zations, and by utilizing various cross-border cooperation programmes.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

1593. Price of Aggression: The Impact of Sanctions on the Russian Economy

Author:: Kazimier Dadak
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: In late February of 2014, president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, a staunch ally of Russia, lost power. This event sent into motion a sequence of events that pitched Rus- sia against its neighbour and the West. Faced with the loss of influence, if not control, over Ukraine, Vladimir Putin immediately took steps that, in his mind, were to secure the interests of his country. First, in March 2014, Russia seized and annexed Crimea; soon af- terwards a Russian-inspired rebellion engulfed eastern Ukraine. These measures drastically increased Putin’s popularity at home, but made him a pa- riah abroad. Initially, the West, including the European Union, imposed diplomatic sanc- tions1. They had no effect on Russian behaviour and, in July, the West expanded punitive measures to the economy2. President Putin did not budge, and in September, the United States and the European Union increased the pressure by imposing additional sanctions on the financial sector3. As a result, Russian companies, including large banks, were effec- tively cut off from western financial markets. Past experience, such as the U.S. led sanc- tions on Iran, shows that this type of punishment is very effective and this paper illustrates that they exacted a price on the Russian economy as well.
Topic:: Economics, Sanctions, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

1594. How the Socialist Economy was destroyed in the USSR (One reason for the collapse of the country)

Author:: Rudolf Pikhoia
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: On 25 September 1990, one of the first meetings of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of Russia was held in the building of the Supreme Soviet of the RSFSR. The agenda consisted of the issue of ensuring the economic sovereignty of Russia in the USSR. Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Yuri Skokov, responsible for industrial policy, spoke with bitterness about his meeting with Minister of Metallurgy of the USSR Seraphim Baibakov: “We spoke to him about our sovereignty, and he said: ‘I’m sorry, but last year I became an owner of property and a legal successor of state property.’ Kolpakov became Krupp. Now he cre- ates 10-15 companies, leaving a small management structure. It is presidential rule in the steel-casting complex.” Frankly speaking, after I became familiar with the transcript of this meeting, it made me think. When assessing the reforms that took place in the late 1980s and early 1990s it is, perhaps, the only question to which all representatives of Russian political science an- swer in the same fashion. Both supporters of radical reforms (we shall call them, conven- tionally, the E. T. Gaidar-Anatoly Chubai school) and their opponents in the wider political spectrum – from former Chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers N.I. Ryzhkov, to pre- sent Assistant to the President and scholar, S. Y. Glazyev, answer the question about the beginning period of privatisation and destruction of the public sector in the same manner. They are unanimous in recognising that privatisation dates back to the early 1990s, and is concentrated in the period from 1992 to 1996.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, Empire, and State Building
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Soviet Union

1595. Public and Private Hate Speech in Poland

Author:: Magda Stroinska and Grażyna Drazazga
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: “W ords can be like tiny doses of arsenic: they are swallowed unnoticed, appear to have no effect, and then after a little time the toxic reaction sets in after all,” wrote Vic- tor Klemperer in his study of the language of the Third Reich (Klemperer 1946/2000: 15- 16). The importance of language for effective persuasion has been acknowledged by the teachers of rhetoric and orators since the age of antiquity. In modern times, there were both politicians who practiced deception through language for political or other gains, and also those who studied the effects of language-based manipulation. Among the most profound research on the mechanisms and effects of propaganda, one could name the writings of George Orwell, Friedrich Hayek, or Michał Głowiński. In this paper, we focus on one particularly disturbing aspect of propaganda: the use of hate speech. The reason for this choice of topic is the unprecedented explosion of populism all over the world, and the spread of perhaps its strongest weapon – hate through political and social fearmongering and use of what Klemperer referred to as ‘poisonous language’. Both political discourse in general and political propaganda in particular, tend to use a number of linguistic mechanisms in order to maximize the way they affect their target audiences and stir up hostility towards certain minorities. The most effective techniques, proven throughout history, include stereotyping for the purpose of singling out individu- als or groups as the proverbial “other” and, making that “other” out to be the scapegoat (cf. Stroińska 1998), as well as ad hominem attacks and redefining the meaning of certain keywords.
Topic:: Minorities, Discrimination, Language, Hate Speech, and Speech
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

1596. Shaking the Foundation: the Trump Administration and NATO’s East

Author:: Metthew Bryza
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: Ultimately though, my very last remarks are ultimately optimistic, because President Trump lacks geopolitical vision, lacks historical insight or, really even, frankly – I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but – curiosity about history. Everything is about the deal. One and one, the individuals, the people – that’s why he had nobody in a room which is what Putin wanted, besides Rex Tillerson and the interpreter when they met. And so, what’s inevitably going to happen is he will start up with a grand bargain, where something hap- pens in Ukraine mostly cut over the heads of the Ukrainians. But thank goodness with Am- bassador Volker there, I know he’s no fool and will fight against that, but probably though there will be an agreement which I know that the Trump administration, from my own contacts within, has been cooking up, hoping for, for a longtime, whereby President Putin gets what he needs. He gets an excuse to exit Donbass, because that’s a failed operation, the uprising that he expected never happened, Russian troops are dying, it’s an economic albatross around the neck of Russia. But he can’t just leave, he can’t just pull out Russian troops, because that would really hurt him domestically, politically. So, okay, he says: “We’ve reentered the geopolitical stage, we’re at the center of it with President Trump”. Putin will say “We’ll pull out of Donbass, we’re never leaving Crimea”, That will be the deal I think. Donbass – if the Ukrainian government offers autonomy – will have a sort of a frozen political conflict, troops gone, heavy weapons pulled back on the Russian side, Crimea still what it is – anschlussed by Russia. And then the other area where there will be coopera- tion is in Syria. And we’ve already seen in Southeastern Syria there is a modest cease-fire that seems to be holding – that’s great, may it work, however it also provides U.S. bless- ing for Russian troops to base deeper in the Middle East, and that has never happened before. But leave that aside, maybe it will bring peace. Eventually that cooperation in Syria will collapse. Russia has no history of successfully establishing peace and rebuilding economies and complex cultures. It used brutality in the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s, to build the Soviet Union, but it doesn’t have the finesse to rebuild something on the scale of Syria. And so, Trump is going to be disappointed with President Putin. President Putin will inevitably overplay Russia’s hand, and finally at that point my last remark – if the EU and NATO have maintained their cohesion, remain strong, maintain the geopolitical vision of President Duda and Secretary of State Szczerski, then we have a chance to take these positive developments and push away the lack of clarity, the dalliance with Putin and the security services on the part of team Trump, and finally wake up – just as Obama woke up, just as President Bush woke up and realized he that he hadn’t see Putin’s soul, and then maybe we can rebuild. So, the key to all this is that you all are doing exactly what you’ve said, Mr. Secretary of State – taking the strategic reins in your own hands, pursuing initia- tives like the Three Seas, changing the geopolitical facts on the ground so that when the U.S. does finally wake up – we know which way to move. Thank you very much!
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

1597. Remarks on Regional Security

Author:: Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: I am delighted to be in Warsaw on this panel. In 1994 when I graduated with a PhD, and held my first academic post, the first international conference I went to was in Wrocław, and obviously I had to travel through Warsaw. So, it’s really nice to be back in Poland and have the opportunity to present in the capital when older and wiser. Today, I am going to try and look at how we understand the rationality, the logic of Russia’s foreign policy, particularly the destabilization efforts against neighbours and come to a conclusion has to how sustainable and long-term this approach will be. Will it gradually diminish or is it set to stay as it is or even increase? To try and understand Russia’s foreign policy, we need to look into the domestic eco- nomic, political, and social system created by a system-forming figure that is President Vladimir Putin. The two key data points here really are two strategic vulnerabilities that Russia has to deal with. The first is the hydrocarbon dependence, 50% of GDP and 70% of exports, and 98% of corporate tax. The vulnerability is that Russia is dependent on hy- drocarbon revenues but cannot affect the price of oil globally (which sets the price of gas). Oil can be priced at $110pb or at $25pb and the shift can take place over a matter of months. The second vulnerability is the popularity of the president. When Putin has de-modernized Russia, de-institutionalized and de-globalized Russia it means that if his popularity decreases then you have an existential crisis within the federation. The destabi- lizing question is: “If not Putin, then whom?” There are no contingency plans, no succession mechanism to replace the leader. So, essentially we are looking at Russia’s foreign policy operating in a context where the economy is in the toilet as reflected in a 0.2% average GDP growth since 2009; 2012 – 0% growth and since 2012 when Kudrin resigned from the government. Normally, the popularity of a president – as was the case in the first 8 years of Putin’s presidency from 2000 to 2008 – tracks the economy, or maybe lags a little bit behind. As economic performance increases and revenues distributed to the population, so the popularity of the president. So, this is very abnormal politics.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

1598. Kremlin Propaganda and Disinformation in Georgia: tools, channels, narratives

Author:: Małgorzata Zawadzka
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: Georgia is an object of special interest for the Russian Federation for several reasons, mainly due to its strategic location. First of all, Georgia connects oil-rich Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea with Turkey and the Black Sea. The route through Georgia is also the shortest way from Russia to Armenia, which would shorten and ease the transport of military equip- ment to the Middle East. Further, the trade route through Georgia is one of the few routes connecting China with European markets simultaneously omitting Russia. Finally, Georgia is situated in the area called Russia’s “soft underbelly”, territory considered by Moscow as its natural sphere of influence, hence NATO’s or the European Union’s presence there is unwelcome. Yet Georgia is important to Russia for one more reason. Although the Au- gust war in 2008 was in general won by the Russian Federation, to Moscow’s surprise international public opinion did not follow the Kremlin narration of the events’ course. Rus- sia lost the war on information and is unable to dispose of the occupant-aggressor image.
Topic:: Hegemony, Propaganda, Disinformation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Georgia

1599. Turkey and East Central Europe: idealism, pragmatism, misperception or clash of interests?

Author:: Konrad Zasztowt
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: Turkey is Russia-centric in its East European policies. This approach is a legacy of the Cold War, when the Communist bloc countries were regarded not as sovereign states, but merely the Soviet Union’s “satellites”. Even when they regained full independence after 1989, from Turkey’s point of view, they constituted rather a kind of Russia’s backyard and were generally little known to the Turkish public. Obviously the newly independent states established after the collapse of the Soviet Union were to an even greater extent than the post-communist states perceived in Turkey in the sphere of influence and special interests of Russia. These clichés were shared by Turks and with many in Western societies, as Tur- key remained on the other side of the Iron Curtain.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

1600. From a Common to a National State(s) and the Lithuanian-Polish Dispute

Author:: Alfonsas Eidntas
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: On the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the restoration of the independent states of Poland and Lithuania, we will return to a fundamental question, namely, whether the relationship between our contemporary states, which had already become hostile during the restoration process, is a time of missed opportunities? Or maybe the interests of both sides were simply so different that it was impossible for them to agree on a matter of major importance – state territory (partly also on the issue of national minorities) – and to balance their interests, thus avoiding conflict and a particularly hostile bilateral relationship which lasted until the tragic developments for both Poland and Lithuania in 1939-1940, when our countries fell victim to two tyrants. It is necessary to adopt new approaches to history. As time passes, new generations lose the memory of how events developed. Moreover, old beliefs, suspicions, and phobias are even revived. I would like to tell you a personal story in order to illustrate this point. At the end of December 1993, an annual convention of Lithuanian ambassadors was held in Vilnius. I had just flown in from Washington, D.C., and so I was reflecting on the attitude of the U.S. Administration and the conclusions that were arrived at after some friendly dis- cussions with the staff of the Polish Embassy in Washington D.C., and I shared my thoughts.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Lithuania

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