Content Type: Journal Article / Publication Year: within 3 Years / Topic: Foreign Policy

151. The Tarnished Gold of the Amazon Women: Anita Ekberg on Trinidad

Author:: Jonathan Rickert
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Visits to Trinidad by international celebrities, even relatively minor ones, were few and far between during our years at Embassy Port of Spain (1977-1980). We did not get to host even a single Congressional delegation. Though we never saw him, we heard that Mick Jagger came there at least a couple of times to take part in the annual Carnival festivities and that famed British portrait and fashion photographer Norman Parkinson liked to visit. If there were others of note, I didn’t know about them or no longer recall them. So, it was a pleasant surprise when we heard toward the end of our tour that on-location portions of an American film were to be shot on the island. Titled “Gold of the Amazon Women,” the made-for-TV opus featured Swedish actress Anita Ekberg, Donald Pleasence, Bo Svenson, and a bevy of starlets, models, and others to play the Amazon women. The presence of the actors and film crew caused quite a stir among the local diplomatic corps and expat community. Although our ambassador had the opportunity to meet with the movie folks, the rest of the embassy staff, much to their disappointment, had no such possibility. We were, therefore, particularly pleased to learn that we would be allowed to watch some of the filming taking place at Chaguaramas, a disused and by then somewhat overgrown former US naval facility near Port of Spain that had been turned over to the Trinidadians in 1963. The tropical vegetation there apparently made it a suitable location for the movie’s “jungle” scenes.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Caribbean and Trinidad and Tobago

152. I Didn’t Join the French Foreign Legion, but It Helped Rescue Me in Chad

Author:: James R. Bullington
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In talks on the Foreign Service, I’ve often told this story about the reaction back home to my new career: After several months of training in Washington, I visited Chattanooga over the July 4, 1963, holiday. At a barbeque hosted by my parents, people were curious about what I was doing since I had graduated from college. “Why, I’ve joined the Foreign Service,” I proudly announced to the first couple that asked. Their eyes widened and their jaws dropped in consternation. “Now why in HAIL would yew go and do a thaing like that?” asked the husband. Further conversation revealed that they mistook the Foreign Service for the Foreign Legion (about which they had recently seen some old Hollywood movies on TV), and they couldn’t imagine why I would want to go and fight for the French army in the Sahara Desert. Among my parents’ friends and neighbors, the American Foreign Service was totally unknown, but most Americans were familiar with the French Foreign Legion because of numerous movies about it from the 1920s through the 1960s. The most notable was Beau Geste, released in 1939.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Civil War, Diplomacy, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Africa and Chad

153. The World After the War: Rebuilding an International Order After the Conflict in Ukraine – A DACOR Conference

Author:: Keith McCormick
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The DACOR Bacon House Foundation’s annual conference, held October 6 in its historic mansion near the White House, explored ‘The World After the War: Rebuilding an International Order After the Conflict in Ukraine.’ Instead of focusing on the war itself, its panelists tried to think ahead to what comes next. A period of chaos like the 1930s? The restoration of the current international order? Or some new system that will have to accommodate the interests of a range of countries including Russia, China, and the so-called Global South? The following summary is drawn from both the presentations and the question-and-answer sessions. In accordance with DACOR’s Chatham House rule, this summary does not identify the views of individual speakers.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

154. Ending Wars: When Does Diplomacy Have a Role?

Author:: Raymond F. Smith
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: When, whether and under what conditions to enter into negotiations to end the war in Ukraine is one of the thorniest international issues of the moment. My objective in this article is to look briefly at the role diplomacy has played, or not played, in ending several of the most destructive wars in European history and then to explore what role it might play in ending the war in Ukraine.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

155. Türkiye’s First 100 Years

Author:: W. Robert Pearson
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Modern Türkiye (the official spelling of Turkey since 2021) sprang like a phoenix from the ashes in 1923, overcoming daunting odds. Its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, had foolishly joined the war with the Central Powers in 1914 and naively thought its Arab subjects would remain loyal, only to have been utterly defeated and then dismembered. A rebellion led by the empire’s most famous war hero and leader, Kemal Ataturk, overthrew the last sultan, rejected an unjust treaty to divide up the country and repelled the occupying Allies. He established a contemporary republic based on popular will and modern law to begin a new history for the Turkish people. Born from the wreckage of war and national chaos, Türkiye now, one hundred years on, has become a formidable player on the global stage. World War One witnessed four empires – the German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian, and Ottoman – disappear from history. Of the four, the Turks were the most severely treated by the European victors. Little of Germany and none of the Austro-Hungarian states were occupied. Türkiye was. The country also was originally forecast to become a League of Nations mandate, losing its sovereignty, a punishment not assessed against any other Central Power. Türkiye’s victory at the negotiating table in the early 1920’s over the European Allied Powers and on the battlefield principally against the Greeks, who were encouraged by the British to invade Türkiye to recover territories, was a singular achievement. The final agreement – the Treaty of Lausanne – gave Türkiye its complete independence on October 29, 1923, with Mustafa Kemal as its first president. It was the only such treaty negotiated by a WWI Central Power state with the Allies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Religion, History, Democracy, Economy, Kurds, Ottoman Empire, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

156. Sea Denial and a Scorched Earth Policy in the West Philippine Sea

Author:: Jay L. Batongbacal
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The escalating trend in China’s assertion operations is unmistakable, and it would not be unreasonable to expect that in the near future the next escalatory step would be to engage in a limited application of force as a demonstration of its intent and resolve. This could perhaps take place in relation to the tenuous hold of the Philippines on Second Thomas Shoal, about which China has clearly displayed increasing belligerence and employed steady pressure to expel the token Philippine presence on it. Another possible scenario may involve a provocative warning shot or actual ramming of government ships. As such, other contingencies within the realm of possibility should be seriously contemplated and prepared for.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: China, Asia-Pacific, and West Philippines

157. Role Conceptions and Leadership Rivalry in the Middle East: Transforming Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Relations

Author:: Muhammed Yakup İnan
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: In recent years, the Middle East has often been the subject of foreign interventions and the interests of superpowers. The effect of internal dynamics was pushed to the background in regional developments as a result of this situation. It is very important, however, to analyze the Middle East by understanding the power struggles between the regional powers Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran. This article examines the leadership struggle and role conceptualizations between the regional powers of the Middle East with a focus on the relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It argues that Turkey is not a rival to Saudi Arabia's national role conceptions in the Gulf region, but rather a favorable partner when it comes to Gulf security and economic relations. Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia will follow a positive course with mutual normalization steps and Turkey's export-led growth and regional cooperation strategies.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Leadership, Economy, Regional Power, and Role Conceptions
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

158. The Examination of the Identities Defining Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Başak Özoral
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Social constructivism theory, one of the theories of the field of international relations, deals with the current problems of modern life and offers solutions to them. Identity structuring in the nation-building process and the elements that make up identity constitute one of the main working subjects of social constructionists. In this study, Islam, Wahhabism, Bedouinism, regional leadership, energy geopolitics, which are effective in the foreign policy determination process of Saudi Arabia, will be tried to be explained through the constructivism theory as the main factors that determine the Saudi identity. Along with the semantic changes that Saudi identity has expressed for Saudi Arabia from the past, its effect on current politics is determined, and the geopolitical position of Saudi Arabia and the strategic orientations caused by this position are discussed. In addition, the policies that Saudi Arabia started to follow in the post-Arab Spring period are examined, especially with an emphasis on its relationship with the Islamic identity. A holistic framework for Saudi Arabia's foreign policy will be drawn by listing various approaches to the identities mentioned in the article. It will also focus on the internal dynamics that are important in the formation of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy identities.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Nation-State, Identity, and Social Constructivism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

159. The Sino-French Relationship At 60: China’s Losing Bet On A Reset

Author:: Juliana Bouchard
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Against a background of increasingly fraught relations with the European Commission, China has been doubling down on its outreach to member states, with France chief among them. The two countries have been gearing up to the 60th anniversary of their bilateral relationship in January 2024 with a flurry of diplomatic exchanges. These have included high-level visits by President Emmanuel Macron in April, Economic Minister Bruno Le Maire in July, diplomatic adviser Emmanuel Bonne in late October, and most recently Foreign Affairs Minister Catherine Colonna (FMPRC, November 22). On the Chinese side, Premier Li Qiang traveled to Paris in June to take part in the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact. However, this year also saw Paris deal some blows to China’s economic ambitions, with Macron being one of the driving forces behind Brussels’ ongoing anti-subsidy investigation into China-made electric vehicles and revamping its own EV purchase credits to exclude Chinese-made models (Service Public, October 10). During Bonne’s visit, Wang Yi framed his expectations for the anniversary in no uncertain terms, calling on China and France to “revisit the original intention (重温建交初衷)” of their bilateral ties and “consolidate and reset (巩固和再出发) the relationship” (FMPRC, October 30). Paris’ appetite for meeting Beijing halfway in “resetting” the relationship is far less certain. Most likely, China’s lofty ambitions for a reset will be met with more ambiguity from France, continuing its diplomatic outreach to safeguard economic opportunities in China, all the while pushing for more assertive policies within Brussels to achieve its vision of “strategic autonomy.” While some scholars are not entirely immune to the “dual-faced (两面性)” nature of French diplomacy (Fudan Development Institute, March 2), a prevalent view—or hope—among officials in Beijing is that Macron’s vision of strategic autonomy is primarily about asserting an independent foreign policy from the United States. However, in reality, strategic autonomy also informs France’s own de-risking agenda toward China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and France

160. China and Nicaragua’s Deepening Embrace

Author:: Scott B. MacDonald
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In October 2023, Nicaragua signed an agreement with China’s CAMC Engineering Company (中工国际工程) for the reconstruction, expansion, and upgrading of the Punta Huete International Airport (Yicai, October 18). The company is a subsidiary of the conglomerate China National Machinery Industry Corporation (国际集团), also known as Sinomach (Sinomach, accessed November 15). Local and Chinese officials are touting the $492 million project as part of China’s Bridge and Road Initiative (BRI), reflecting a deepening of Daniel Ortega’s regime’s ties to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (Global Times, October 18). Closer links between Beijing and Managua demonstrate that China’s economic statecraft remains central to its strategy to further penetrate Latin America and the Caribbean, a region of significant geopolitical importance to the United States. The sustainability of China’s economic statecraft, and BRI in particular, have come into question in recent months due to the country’s domestic economic problems. However, the Nicaraguan airport announcement signals that the PRC remains economically active in the region, and its ambitions have not wavered. This is something of which the remaining handful of countries that officially recognize Taiwan are well aware: Beijing’s attention to regional infrastructure continues, if more selectively than before, but only to those countries who have decided to forgo relations with Taiwan. Beijing is further extending its reach into the strategic underbelly of the United States. For Nicaragua, the restoration of diplomatic ties with China serves the geopolitical needs of President Daniel Ortega in distancing his regime from the United States and softening the blow of sanctions (imposed due to fraudulent elections and gross human rights violations), while providing a source of non-Western funds to finance infrastructure projects.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Central America, and Nicaragua

161. Money Alone Is Not Enough: The Future Of The China-Argentina Relationship

Author:: Román D. Ortiz
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Observers assessed the outcome of the first round of Argentina’s presidential elections held on October 22 as good news for the Chinese government (VOA, October 26). Against the odds, Sergio Massa, the Peronist candidate and current minister of economy, emerged on top, despite his overseeing an annual inflation rate of almost 140 percent. Meanwhile, Javier Milei, the libertarian opposition candidate, took the second place (Yahoo Noticias, October 23). These two politicians will compete for the presidency in the second round of the election scheduled for November 19. At first glance, the victory of Massa should be an encouraging sign for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) since it keeps open the possibility that the China-friendly Peronist party remains in government. However, a more granular analysis suggests two alternative outcomes: First, Milei is likely to be the eventual winner after the second round of voting, which would make the new occupant of the Casa Rosada (the Argentinian presidential palace) a politician who has called the PRC an “assassin” and who plans to freeze relations with Beijing. Second, if Massa wins the presidency, his more moderate Peronism is far from the Third-World foreign policy promoted by the outgoing president, Alberto Fernandez, and his vice-president and former president, Cristina Fernandez. Thus, regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, Beijing’s desires to increase political influence over Buenos Aires, which have focused particularly on its defense policy, are likely to be curtailed. A decrease in political influence with Buenos Aires would deal a serious blow to the Chinese strategy in Latin America, in which Argentina plays a critical role. Argentina is the only large country in the region to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It also exports food, minerals, and oil needed by the Chinese industrial sector. Argentina’s expansive territory represents a natural platform to project power within South America and to the South Atlantic. Buenos Aires’s geopolitics makes it particularly attractive for Beijing, which is exploring opportunities to secure rights for a naval base on the west coast of Africa in order to gain access to the Atlantic. Argentina also forms a key part of PRC efforts to consolidate its hegemony over the Global South. Specifically, the PRC views Argentina as a counterbalance to Brazilian regional hegemony, which motivated China’s interest in Argentina joining the BRICS grouping of countries, against Brazilian opposition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Industry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Argentina, and South America

162. Characterizing China’s Rule of Law

Author:: Ben Lowsen
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chinese President Xi Jinping is working in earnest to develop for China what his government calls “rule by law” (法治). It is sometimes translated into English as “rule of law,” though this is misleading, as Chinese law cannot restrict arbitrary exercise of power at the highest levels: the Party leads everything. As such, an awareness of the term’s precise meaning in the PRC’s legal-political context is crucial for understanding Xi’s intent. The Chinese president has stated that “the rule of law is an important component of the country’s core competitiveness” (People’s Daily, November 22, 2020). In light of this, the recently promulgated Foreign Relations Law (对外关系法), which emphasizes China’s competitiveness, provides an opportunity to interrogate Xi’s conception of the rule of law. [1] The Foreign Relations Law (henceforth, the Law) is timely. The head of the powerful Legislative Affairs Committee said in an interview that out of the PRC’s 297 national laws, 52 were dedicated to foreign relations and 150 more had provisions relating to foreign relations. [2] The Law is therefore an important addition, “consolidating and describing the major policies and principles of China’s foreign affairs,” in the words of current (and former) foreign minister Wang Yi. [3] Moreover, it comes at a moment in which China is at once increasingly emboldened on the international stage, and whose relations with many developed countries are increasingly fraught. Support from abroad could be helpful for China as it attempts to navigate out of a mismanaged end to the Covid-19 pandemic, but there is little to reassure foreign partners that their investments in the country will be protected by its laws.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Governance, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: China and Asia

163. A Belt and Road to Nowhere? Italy on the Frontlines of Europe’s Changing Strategy Toward China

Author:: Andrew R. Novo
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: During her tenure as Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni has been far more active on the international scene than most observers predicted. Within the first ten months of her tenure, she has traveled to capitals across Europe, Asia, and North Africa and has hosted numerous foreign leaders on official visits. In July, Meloni visited Washington, D.C. where she and President Biden affirmed their commitment to deepening collaboration across various areas of shared interests. Meloni’s foreign policy agenda has touched on a range of issues including, but not limited to, European security, migration, energy policy, and international trade. It is on this last issue that Italy’s decision-making might be most impactful. As the Meloni administration reassesses its economic partnerships around the world, Italy’s relations—and by extension the European Union’s (EU) overarching position—towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC) could witness lasting changes. At the heart of the new government’s economic policy lies its choice of whether to withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Meloni—along with many members of her cabinet—have voiced skepticism towards the agreement. As such, everything is on the table in the run-up to the decision at the end of the year.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

164. The PRC Eyes Vietnam: Chinese Assessments of Vietnam’s Hedging Strategy

Author:: Nathan Waechter
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In July, the Barbie movie––an ostensibly apolitical and innocuous film––was banned by the Vietnamese Department of Cinema over real-world tensions between Vietnam and China. According to the state film council, the new Barbie movie was barred from the Vietnamese market over its inclusion of a map purportedly showing China’s preferred territorial “Nine-Dash” line in the South China Sea (Vietnam News, July 7). As the head of the national film evaluation council stated, “Vietnam’s stance has been clear. It does not accept movies that are ambiguous in matters related to territorial sovereignty” (Vietnam News, July 7). The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to the incident by asserting that “China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests are solidly grounded in history and law” (Global Times, July 7). Accusing the Vietnamese government of overstating the issue, the Chinese state media outlet Global Times urged all “relevant parties to control domestic hype and nationalist sentiment” (Global Times, July 7). Viewed within a broader context, the Barbie movie incident is only the most recent expression of the historical baggage between Vietnam and China. Many PRC military officials and academics largely perceive Southeast Asia as China’s proverbial “backyard” that should rightfully remain in its sphere of influence. Within Southeast Asia, Vietnam occupies an important position directly on China’s periphery. Publicly, China considers Vietnam’s governing regime to be close “comrades and brothers” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, March 28). However, Vietnam has a long, acrimonious history with China. Vietnam has been invaded by China numerous times and subjugated to Chinese rule and the exaction of tribute for thousands of years. The “Vietnam Military Museum in Hanoi … lists 13 “Vietnamese Resistance Wars Against Invaders,” with the majority fought against the Chinese. To some extent, Vietnam has also benefited from its contact with China. The Chinese written script, ideas of ethics and governance, and even chopsticks were absorbed from China. [1] During America’s war in Vietnam, China provided Vietnam with vast amounts of material support. From 1965-1969, a total of 320,000 Chinese troops covertly served in North Vietnam. [2] Despite this, China invaded Vietnam in 1979 in a war that the PRC refers to as the “Self-defensive counterattack against Vietnam” (对越自卫还击保卫边疆作战) (Baidu Encyclopedia). In more recent years, Vietnam and China have clashed rhetorically over islands in the South China Sea and had a tense standoff over a Chinese oil exploration rig in Vietnamese-claimed waters in 2014 (CSIS, December 23, 2014). With its historical domination by China and its position as a small, weak, and still developing country, Vietnam has pursued a strategy of hedging. Research by Thi Bich Tran and Yoichiro Sato, Le Hong Hiep, and Tuan Uy Tran provide robust definitions of Vietnam’s hedging strategy from Vietnamese and Western perspectives (Contemporary Southeast Asia, December 2013; Asian Politics and Policy, January 2018; Naval Post-Graduate School Monterey, March 1, 2018). However, it is important to understand how China views Vietnam’s strategy as well. Further analysis is needed to examine primary Chinese sources and understand Chinese elite perceptions, their conclusions, and what “countermeasures” they believe China should take against Vietnam’s approach. On balance, while Chinese security analysts have a clear understanding of Vietnam’s hedging strategy, they exhibit a modern version of historical Chinese paternalism towards Vietnam. Many contemporary Chinese analysts believe that Vietnam, as a developing country, will inevitably fall into China’s sphere of influence as it remains dependent on Chinese economic ties for growth. While Vietnam does benefit from its economic relations with China, however, the Chinese analyses fail to fully recognize Hanoi’s fundamental apprehensions and insecurity caused by the historical enmity between the two countries, as well as China’s modern-day rise and its aggressive actions in the South China Sea. To a certain degree, China is guilty of exhibiting a degree of the same imperial hubris towards Vietnam as it has often accused the US of in the latter’s relations with other countries. While PRC strategists appear to have concluded that time is on their side, Beijing’s paternalistic complex may ultimately handicap China’s ability to pull Vietnam closer into its orbit.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Hedging, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Vietnam

165. Xi Jinping’s Hidden Goals for the PRC Law on Foreign Relations

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chinese President Xi Jinping has promulgated a new law on foreign affairs to legitimize tough measures that Beijing is taking against the “bullying” of the “hegemonic West.” The statute, “The Law on Foreign Relations of the People’s Republic of China (PRC),” which takes effect on July 1, will also anchor the supreme leader’s long-standing aspiration to build a China-centric global order that will challenge the framework established by the US-led Western Alliance since the end of World War II. The law also codifies the total control that Xi, who is Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary and Chairman of its Central Military Commission (CMC), exercises on all policies regarding diplomacy and national security (People’s Daily, June 30; Xinhua, June 28). The law states that the PRC “stays true to the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable global security, and endeavors to strengthen international security cooperation and its participation in mechanisms of global security governance.” It stresses Beijing’s right to “take corresponding countermeasures and restrictive measures” against acts that violate international law and norms and that “endanger China’s sovereignty, security and development interests.” The official Global Times said the statute was a response to “new challenges in foreign relations, especially when China has been facing frequent external interference in its internal affairs under the western hegemony with unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction” (The Global Times, June 28). The legislation legalizes measures such as counter-sanctions and blacklisting of foreign nationals and institutions in retaliation against similar measures that the US and other Western countries have taken against PRC firms (New York Times Chinese Edition, December 16, 2022).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Law, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: China and Asia

166. China’s Collaboration with the Myanmar Junta: A Case of Strategic Hedging?

Author:: Sudhan Rmachandran
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On June 27, in Kachin State, northern Myanmar, a convoy of vehicles carrying a Chinese delegation, including a consul, came under fire. The convoy was being guarded by Myanmar military and police personnel. While local media blamed the Lisu National Development Party, a military-aligned militia, the Myanmar junta held the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) — an ethnic armed organization (EAO) aligned with the anti-junta resistance— responsible for the attack (The Irrawaddy, June 30). Attacks on Chinese targets have grown in recent months in Myanmar. On May 7, the anti-junta Natogyi Guerrilla Force (NGF) attacked an off-take station in the Mandalay Region’s Natogyi Township due to its China-affiliated oil and gas pipeline. The attack came amid a surge in mass protests on the streets of Yangon, and the townships of Yinmabin, Salingyi and Letpadaung in Sagaing Region. Angry online campaigns criticizing Beijing’s support of “fascist criminals” — referring to the Myanmar generals — gained widespread public backing (Economic Times, May 15). On May 2, the surge in anti-China protests and violence came close on the heels of a meeting in Naypyidaw between Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Myanmar junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Qin is the highest Chinese official to meet Min Aung Hlaing since the 2021 military coup, which overthrew the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government (Frontier Myanmar, May 3). Since the junta’s rise to power, public ire in Myanmar has been directed not only at the military regime but also at China, the junta’s principal foreign backer. In the early days of the coup, crowds gathered outside the Chinese embassy in Yangon to protest against the alleged Chinese role in the insurrection (Times of India, February 14, 2021). Chinese-owned factories in Myanmar were damaged and burned, and Chinese workers were attacked (CGTN, March 14, 2021). With visible collaboration between the PRC and the junta growing, the targeting of Chinese projects and properties in Myanmar has grown in frequency and intensity. To cite one such instance, last April resistance groups fired missiles at factories manufacturing long-range rockets and surface-to-air missiles, specifically when Chinese and Russian military officials were visiting the facilities (Burma News International, April 8). As anti-China sentiment surges in Myanmar, it is likely that resistance groups will continue to deliberately target Chinese interests in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Coup, Strategic Interests, and Junta
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Myanmar

167. Can the Belt and Road Initiative Succeed in Afghanistan?

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: At a trilateral meeting in Islamabad on May 9, the foreign ministers of China, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan and reaffirmed their support for multilateral infrastructure projects already underway, including the Central Asia-South Asia (CASA) power project and the Trans-Afghan Railways (People’s Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs [FMPRC], May 9). Earlier on January 5, the Taliban regime signed an agreement with the Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company (CAPEIC), a subsidiary of the state-owned China National Petroleum Company (CNPC), for the extraction of oil from the Amu Darya basin, under which China will invest $150 million annually for three years and increase it thereafter to $540 million for the contract’s 25-year duration (Kabul Now, January 5). Then on April 13, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum announced that the Chinese company Gochin had expressed interest in investing $10 billion in Afghanistan’s lithium reserves (Kabul Now, April 13). Meanwhile, China is reported to be in talks with the Taliban regime over renegotiating the terms of a 2008 contract to mine copper from the Mes Aynak reserves in Logar province (The Print, June 8, 2022). The agreements, including plans to extend CPEC—a key leg of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—into Afghanistan, are a significant development. The deal relating to oil extraction in the Amu Darya basin is the Taliban regime’s first major foreign investment deal. However, in the past, major Chinese projects have failed to take off. Will the recent deals remain in limbo as well? China’s growing role in Afghanistan faces formidable challenges.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, and South Asia

168. Taiwan’s Dwindling Diplomatic Allies

Author:: John S. Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Amidst the drama surrounding Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s early April stopover in Southern California, where she met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the subsequent People’s Liberation Army (PLA) maneuvers around Taiwan that followed, it can be easy to forget why the Taiwanese President was transiting the U.S. in the first place. Tsai was returning home after a trip to Taiwan’s two remaining diplomatic allies in Central America, Guatemala and Belize, which was organized around the theme of “Meeting Democratic Partners, Fostering Shared Prosperity” (民主夥伴共榮之旅) (Office of the President, Republic of China [ROC] [Taiwan], March 29). Days prior to Tsai’s arrival in the Western Hemisphere, Honduras, which had maintained official relations with the Republic of China (ROC) for 82 years, established formal ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs [FMPRC], March 26). The move occurred despite U.S. efforts to dissuade Honduras. On March 18, the Biden administration dispatched senior envoy and special adviser for the Americas, former Senator Chris Dodd, who is also well-regarded in Taipei, to Honduras in a last-minute effort to encourage the Xiomara Castro government to change course in derecognizing Taiwan (Taipei Times March 18). Under the government of Xiomara Castro, who took office early last year, Honduras has sought to pit Taipei and Beijing against each other in a bidding war for diplomatic recognition. While China has offered inducements, Taiwan has both rejected and called out the Castro government’s efforts to condition the continuation of the official relationship on major increases in financial assistance. Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina initially denied Taipei’s claims that Honduras had asked Taiwan for $2.5 billion but eventually acknowledged to the media that the Castro government had sought to obtain $2 billion in aid (ROC Ministry of Foreign Affairs [Taiwan MOFA], March 23). However, he also claimed his country “never received a substantive response from the Taiwanese side” (TVBS, March 24). In a notice regarding these revelations and regretting the pending shift in recognition, the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry warned Honduras not to fall prey to China’s “debt trap diplomacy” (Taiwan MOFA, March 23). Upon announcing the termination of relations with Honduras, Tsai cautioned Taiwan’s other diplomatic allies against following the same course, stressing that “we will not engage in a meaningless contest of ‘dollar diplomacy’ with China.” She also criticized the PRC’s efforts to employ “any and all means to suppress Taiwan’s international participation” (Office of the President, Taiwan, March 26). Earlier this week, the Tsai government averted another diplomatic setback with the election of Santiago Pena of the ruling conservative Colorado Party to the presidency in Paraguay. Pena’s opponent, Efrain Alegre, who led a broad center-left coalition, campaigned on switching recognition from the ROC to the PRC in order to facilitate Paraguay’s access to China’s large agricultural import market (Nikkei Asia, April 18). In a response to a congratulatory tweet from President Tsai, Pena stated that “we are going to continue strengthening our historic ties of brotherhood and cooperation between our countries” (Taiwan News, May 2). However, the Tsai administration is hardly free from the challenge of maintaining the ROC’s dwindling network of official relationships. Guatemala, which is Taiwan’s largest diplomatic ally, will go to the polls to elect a new president in late June. President Alejandro Eduardo Giammattei Falla, who has been a staunch supporter of maintaining close ties with the ROC, is constitutionally barred from seeking a second term. According to long-time China-Latin America analyst R. Evan Ellis the prospect of “a victory by either a center-left-oriented candidate more open to working with the PRC such as Sandra Torres, or a right-oriented candidate such as Zury Rios, whose Presidency might deepen policy conflict with the Biden Administration, could present a small but not insignificant risk of Guatemalan diplomatic recognition of the PRC” (CEEP, March 7).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

169. A Preliminary Survey of PRC United Front Activities in South Korea

Author:: Russell Hsiao
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) exercises influence over South Korea in multiple ways. Chinese influence operations against Seoul have been characterized as not subtle and even blatant compared to the more covert and subversive methods employed in other countries (China Brief, December 19, 2014). Indeed, the more overt and aggressive ways in which Beijing exercises influence were on full display when the PRC responded to Seoul’s decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in 2016 with boycotts, military exercises and diplomatic pressure (China Brief, March 31, 2017). Less well known, however, is how China employs other, more subtle means to influence South Korean politics and society. A general presumption exists that influence must be exerted overtly or in forms such as diplomatic protests or through sanctions, yet Beijing’s influence activities also take on a less pronounced and more obscured nature, which is commonly associated with its United Front activities. This article will provide a preliminary assessment of the local Chinese Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification of China (CCPPNR, 韩华中国和平统一促进联合总会) and the web of other United Front organizations that operate in South Korea. [1] This article does not seek to offer an exhaustive examination of these organizations, but to provide a preview of the key United Front apparatuses and their activities in South Korea.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Diaspora, Soft Power, and Influence
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

170. Beyond Arms and Ammunition: China, Russia and the Iran Back Channel

Author:: Sine Ozkarasahin
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Along with Iran’s increasing involvement in supplying Russia’s war effort against Ukraine, a potential increase in Chinese support for Russia presents a challenge for both Kyiv and NATO (Eurasia Daily Monitor, March 6). Indeed, Western governments have recently expressed alarm over China’s potential provision of dual-use or military equipment to Russia (U.S. Department of Defense, February 28). According to U.S. intelligence, Chinese arms transfers to Russia would probably take the form of artillery and drones (Straits Times, February 26). As both items are badly needed by Russia to sustain its war efforts, the entry of Chinese arms on the Ukrainian battlefield may drastically shift the balance of power in the ongoing conflict. However, in addition to trackable military aid packages, Chinese assistance is manifesting itself more subtly in ways that are often overlooked. Consequently, a forthcoming Chinese aid package to Russia is likely to take several forms.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Arms Trade, and Investment
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, Eurasia, Middle East, and Asia

171. The Lion, the Wolf Warrior and the Crossroads: UK-China Relations at a Turning Point

Author:: Matthew Brazil
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In early 2018, UK Prime Minister Theresa May visited China with a British business delegation, seeking a free trade deal and expressing optimism over Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula for governing Hong Kong (Global Times, January 31, 2018; Zaobao, January 31, 2018). In her first foreign trip since moving into 10 Downing Street, she promised that the “golden era of relations” between the UK and China would be even better after Brexit (Xinhua, February 1, 2018). Since May’s visit, however, a great deal has happened to move UK-China relations in the opposite direction, with the PRC’s suppression of mass demonstrations in Hong Kong (Global Times, July 29, 2020); the implementation of the 2020 Hong Kong National Security Law that London sees as a breach of “one country, two systems” (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs [FMPRC], June 12, 2020); the British riposte in offering a path to citizenship for Hong Kongers (Gov.cn, April 14, 2021); and the escalation of tensions between China and its trading partners, particularly the UK’s closest ally, America (FMPRC, September 24, 2021; Xinhua, October 5, 2021). The British establishment, like their American cousins, have changed tack on China of late. In June 2022, MI5 Director Ken McCallum and FBI Director Chris Wray gave a joint address warning business and academic leaders in Britain of the “massive shared challenge” posed by China (MI5, July 6, 2022). Two years earlier, McCallum said that if Russian behavior is like “bursts of bad weather,” then “China is changing the climate” (CIGI, June 2, 2022). Last November, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, referring to UK-China relations, said that “the so-called ‘golden era’ is over, along with the naive idea that trade would lead to social and political reform” in the People’s Republic (ThePrint, November 29. 2022). Even the pro-engagement business weekly Beijing to Britain admits that no one in the UK Parliament “believes that an enriched Chinese middle class will steer the country towards democracy” (Beijing to Britain, January 24, 2021). Britain’s conundrum in stabilizing commercial relations with Beijing while heeding American sensibilities is as difficult as at any time since Nixon’s groundbreaking trip to China in 1972. Meanwhile in Beijing, the decades-old ordeal of striving to play the British off against the Americans has become an increasingly uphill battle. In fact, much of today’s menu of bilateral issues between London and Beijing, with the Washington factor always hovering in the background, might be familiar to Clement Atlee, Winston Churchill, Zhou Enlai and Mao Zedong. That brings some predictability to the rollercoaster ride of UK-China relations, but unsettling variables have changed the course of relations and pushed London, not to mention the rest of NATO, ever closer to Washington. Specific aspects of the PRC’s increasingly destabilizing and aggressive policies that have rankled London include the removal of Hong Kong as a centerpiece of the UK-China bilateral relationship; and Beijing’s announcement immediately prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, that “the Sino-Russian cooperation has no limits, no exclusion zone, no ceiling” (中俄合作没有止境 ,没有禁区,没有上限) (Global Times, December 24, 2021; Gov.cn, February 4, 2022).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Europe, and Asia

172. The Emerging Era of Minilateralism in Indian Foreign Policy and Its Impacts on South Asian Politics

Author:: Attiq ur-Rehman
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The contemporary trends of Indian foreign policy cannot be studied without understanding the extension of New Delhi’s strategic collaborations with different stats beyond its traditional bilateral and multilateral cooperative frameworks. The prevalence of a minilateral approach to New Delhi's foreign relations has started focusing on creating different trilateral and quadrilateral engagements with diverse states to address the emerging security challenges of contemporary global power politics. These security challenges are fundamentally linked with the emerging role of China in the international system and New Delhi’s longstanding confrontational ties with Beijing. The position of the United States, and its strategic support to New Delhi, cannot be ignored in the evolving India-China confrontations in economic and strategic domains. The continuation of cooperation against common security threats originating from China has witnessed a bilateral Indo-US strategic collaboration against China in the broader Asian balance of power. Thus, the increasing shadows of minilateralism on Indian foreign policy cannot be treated separately from South Asian regional politics, where India has created a security dilemma parallel to introducing various new trends in the regional arms race of South Asia. This new strategic alignment of New Delhi with the international community tries to counter the increasing role of China in the South Asian region, where Pakistan provides a gateway to China for its South Asian entry. Therefore, the central theme of this paper revolves around the newly evolved era of minilateralism in New Delhi's foreign relations and their impacts on the politics of nuclearized subcontinent due to Islamabad's strong trading ties with China. This paper is an academic endeavour to provide a comprehensive understanding of New Delhi's increasing reliance on minilateralism and its relevance with the decades-long India-Pakistan rivalry.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Regional Security, and Minilateralism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and India

173. A Critical Appraisal of China’s Power in South Asia: Strengths and Achievements

Author:: Arfan Mahmood
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: With its rising power, China has been spreading its clout in almost every corner of the world. South Asia, owing to its rising significance, has caused new-found interest of China in this region. Amidst many assumptions, this paper attempts to trace out the rationale behind China‘s increasing presence in South Asia. Then, it primarily tries to analyze China‘s base of power in South Asian region and to explore its strengths and weaknesses. This study is designed to identify the factors that have attracted South Asian countries towards China. This study employs a case study method in general and ‗focused comparison‘ in particular. This method is considered highly appropriate as it brings various perspectives which are rooted in a particular context. China‘s transforming statecraft towards South Asia is the context and focused comparison comes into play while exploring the commonalities and differences associated with Chinese strategies towards South Asian countries. The study concludes that Chinese base of power in the South Asian region comes from the economic, security, and diplomatic support for the South Asian countries and China has capitalized on this opportunity to transform its resources into power.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Power, Statecraft, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and Asia

174. Turkish Foreign Policy Towards Central Asia: An Unfolding of Regionalism and Soft Power

Author:: Hayriye Kahveci and Işık Kuşçu Bonnenfant
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The end of the Cold War brought about new challenges and opportunities for Turkey in redesigning its foreign policy. The independence of the Central Asian countries, with which Turkey shares common cultural, historical, and linguistic features, prompted Turkey to rapidly adapt to the new environment in the post-Cold War world order. After three decades, Turkey’s engagement with the Central Asian republics has gradually increased and reached a level at which Turkey is capable of effectively combining its soft and hard power capabilities within regional parameters. This article critically analyzes 30 years of Turkish foreign policy in Central Asia with a focus on its regionalism and soft power elements. We argue that Central Asia has provided a unique opportunity for Turkey to reshape its foreign policy on regional terms by utilizing its soft power resources for the first time, the experience later serving as a model for other regions. and its now hegemonic position in Lebanese politics.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Soft Power, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Turkey, and Middle East

175. Frozen in Time while Icebergs are Melting: Türkiye's Climate Policy

Author:: Fatih Bilal Gökpınar and Özgür Aktaş
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: In this paper, we adopt Walter Carlsnaes’ tripartite approach in order to scrutinize the consistency of Türkiye’s climate policy with changing climate regimes. We explain the actor-structure duality in climate policy through the interaction of climate regimes and Türkiye's climate policy. The paper reveals the causality behind the policies implemented by Türkiye as a result of its core values and preferences, and explains their continuities. Finally, we address the potential of the European Green Deal to influence Türkiye's preferences, and therefore its climate policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Environment, Green Deal, and Tripartite Approach
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

176. Fall 2023 edition of Strategic Visions

Author:: Debbie Sharnak, Gregory Urwin, Richard Immerman, and Beth Bailey
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Strategic Visions
Institution:: Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
Abstract:: Contents: News from the Director……… 2 Note from the Davis Fellow…. 7 CENFAD Community Interviews Dr. Debbie Sharnak……. 8 Dr. Gregory Urwin……… 16 Dr. Richard Immerman.. 23 Dr. Beth Bailey……….... 33 Book Reviews Moral Majorities Across the Americas: Brazil, the United States, and the Creation of the Religious Right, reviewed by Lucas de Souza Martins…………………….. 41 Peruvian Foreign Policy in the Modern Era, reviewed by Casey VanSise…………………… 44 Freedom's Captives: Slavery and Gradual Emancipation on the Colombian Black Pacific, reviewed by Audrey Rankin............... 47
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, Slavery, Political Science, and Religious Right
Political Geography:: Brazil, Colombia, and United States of America

177. Latin America and the ‘New Caucasus’: Linking Points Between Brazil and Azerbaijan

Author:: Roberto Rodolfo Georg Uebel
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: For those arriving in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, after crossing the Atlantic Ocean and flying over war-torn Europe, in addition to the modern buildings along the Caspian Sea coast and the unique hospitality of its people, what stands out the most is the emerging ‘New Caucasus’ on the horizon. It is a region no longer constrained by the geopolitical, geoeconomic, and cultural ties to the old Eastern Europe and no longer overshadowed by historical hegemons like Russia (most recently) and Iran (previously). When I visited in 2022, I discovered a country, and a region, that masterfully coordinates a pragmatic foreign policy without relinquishing its Caucasian and Caspian values and roots, creating a unique political identity that, to some extent, resembles our Latin American political identity, of course bearing in mind the appropriate hemispheric and historical proportions. My observation is that Azerbaijan is emerging as a strategic actor in the Caspian Sea region as well as in the relations between Central Asia, the Caucasus, the European Union, and the Middle East.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Brazil, Azerbaijan, Latin America, and South Caucasus

178. A Model for Connectivity: Hungary’s Strong Bond with the Turkic World

Author:: Balázs Orbán
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: For more than one thousand years, Hungary has existed in the heart of Europe, drawing from our rich history and unique geographic location. Sovereignty has emerged as a cornerstone of our national strategy, influenced by our past and our geography. While we align ourselves with the West, we also cherish our Eastern heritage. Taking a pragmatic approach, we strive to build meaningful connections and engage with the non-Western world. Balancing our Western ties with our Eastern roots, Hungary seeks to foster productive relationships and promote connectivity across diverse global landscapes. In the early 1990s, Central Europe experienced significant regime changes as countries liberated themselves from four decades of communist rule and reclaimed their independence. However, in Hungary and other Central European states, the political elite failed to fully leverage this newfound sovereignty. While the aspiration to reintegrate Hungary into the Western cultural, economic, and political sphere was wellfounded—as our country had a century-long history of belonging to the West—the emphasis on this objective led to a neglect of our relationships with the non-Western world. This oversight occurred despite clear and indisputable indications that the non-Western world was quickly catching up with the West. Subsequent governments, driven by political loyalty to the West, overlooked the vast potential Hungary possessed in terms of economic and cultural relations with the non-Western world—particularly through pragmatic diplomacy. However, a significant shift occurred after the landslide victory in 2010, when the Viktor Orbán government took charge and decided to change course. Since then, connectivity has become the central guiding principle of our foreign policy and our foreign economic policy, emphasizing the importance of forging meaningful connections, diversifying trade, forging value chains, establishing diplomatic relations with multiple regions, all the while also preserving our national sovereignty in the process.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, History, and Economy
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Hungary

179. Armenia-Türkiye Relations: Attempts at Normalization

Author:: Könül Şahin
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The Armenian and Turkish people have lived together for centuries in the same geography under various regime types and within various political forms. As countries, Armenia and Türkiye initially established diplomatic relations during the brief period of the first Armenian republic, which corresponded to the nascent years of the Republic of Türkiye. The absorption of Armenia into the Soviet Union put an end to this initial phase. It was only after Armenia regained its independence, in the context of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, that conditions enabling the renewal of state-to-state ties were again established. This essay provides an account of this complicated journey, which has not yet reached its destination. It is intended to serve as an analytic contribution to ongoing efforts by Ankara and Yerevan to normalize bilateral relations within the framework of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, with which it remains politically preconditioned. This essay also carries an oftentimes implicit subtext—no less important in a certain sense—namely, the role played by Azerbaijan in general and Heydar Aliyev in particular (2023 marks the centenary of his birth and the vigenary of his death) in influencing the development of the Armenia-Türkiye relationship.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Armenia, and South Caucasus

180. Central Asia in Contemporary Geopolitics: Between Global Powers and Regional Integration

Author:: Urs Unkauf
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: What is generally true of the Silk Road region is particularly true with respect to its Central Asian part: the region acts as a bridge between geographies, civilizations, resource bases, and power centers. Geopolitically and geo-economically, Central Asia is one of the most important theaters of the twenty-first century. In his referential book The Grand Chessboard, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote back in 1997 about the crucial importance of the Silk Road region (his term was “Eurasia”), and especially Central Asia, for global political supremacy. Nowadays, this region has been pushed back into the focus of geopolitics like no other due to the Russian Federation’s attack on Ukraine that commenced on 24 February 2022 and the resulting, still ongoing war. Indeed, as CoEditor of Baku Dialogues Damjan Krnjević Mišković has stated on various recent occasions, “the global importance of the Silk Road region today is greater than it has been in centuries.” Brzezinski’s key, still-relevant insight is that developments in Central Asia would depend to a large extent on the reciprocal interplay of Western, Russian, Turkish, Iranian, and Chinese interests. In the mirror of current geopolitical processes, Central Asia is of particular importance as a surface of interaction and projection for the global powers— China, Russia, and the United States. Although the EU is trying to act as a shaping actor in the region through the recent launch of programs like Global Gateway, it has so far been of something between secondary and tertiary importance in its political impact, especially given the competition with sources of regional influence such as Türkiye, Iran, and (more and more) India. It has meanwhile become clear that new global and regional power constellations, alliance structures, and economic corridors will emerge. Writing in mid-February 2023, former UN AssistantSecretary-General Michael von der Schulenburg outlined the contours of a new global order in a remarkable article for the German publication Makroskop: Magazine for Economic Policy, in which he sees keystone states in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico), South and Southeast Asia (India, Indonesia), Africa (Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Africa), and the Middle East (Egypt, Saudi Arabia) as new drivers of an intensifying multipolarity of the world order. Although this order will not develop according to particular or hegemonic claims, one must at least take note of these processes. It is also important to recognize that the current processes of change and transformation are not so much the consequences of intended and planned action, but rather genuinely self-generating processes that reinforce themselves across regions. Schulenburg did not include Central Asia, but he should have. The region and its two keystone states (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) can also be included in this series and identified as one of the spaces within this multipolar constellation that can be considered a special arena of cooperation, confrontation, and regional hegemonic aspirations of global powers. Against such a background, this essay aims to provide a snapshot of Central Asia’s present geopolitical allocation in the context of broader international developments and trends. While the ambition of this essay is not to outline all challenges and opportunities, it does focus on the broad points that should be included in any strategic consideration of political and economic action in Central Asia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Silk Road Region

181. ‘Appeasement’ and the Current Crisis: How ‘Munich’ Impoverishes Western Grand Strategy

Author:: Christopher J. Fettweis
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy loves to remind any Western leader who seems about to go wobbly that appeasing aggressors is not only dishonorable but strategically unwise and dangerous. When Henry Kissinger, for instance, suggested in May 2022 at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum at Davos that Ukraine may need to make territorial concessions to end the war, Zelenskyy said this: “It seems that Mr. Kissinger’s calendar is not 2022, but 1938, and he thought he was talking to an audience not in Davos, but in Munich of that time.” Indeed, Munich makes an appearance in every speech (and most off-hand remarks) that the Ukrainian president makes, as if the conference happened in 2018 rather than 1938. Zelenskyy knows his audience. The lessons of Munich and appeasement are deeply ingrained in the strategic consciousness of the United States and its allies. It is no exaggeration to suggest that the dangers posed by appeasing dictators is one of the central tenets of the Western foreign policy establishment. Those arguing for staunch opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin employ the analogy as much as possible, accusing anyone who disagrees of being ignorant of the most basic of lessons that history supposedly teaches. The word “supposedly” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. This brief essay begins by providing a historical overview of appeasement and explains how the lessons of Munich have been mislearned by generations of Western policymakers. That infamous conference did not lead to the Second World War, which was coming no matter what British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain did at the negotiating table. The essay then turns to the effect of misremembrance on U.S. foreign policy to this day, including its influence on the debates regarding Russia’s barbarous invasion of Ukraine. It would be best for everyone involved if the true history of the Munich conference was widely known, or barring that (since it is probably too late), that it was forgotten altogether. This essay provides a historical overview of appeasement, explains how the lessons of Munich have been mislearned by generations of Western policymakers, and then turns to the effect of misremembrance on U.S. foreign policy to this day.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, Grand Strategy, Appeasement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

182. The Future of Global Uncertainties

Author:: Bilahari Kausikan
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The title of this essay—“The Future of Global Uncertainties”—may seem paradoxical, if not downright nonsensical. After all, how can one speak about the future of uncertainties? It would indeed be a fool’s errand to try—that is, unless the parameters of uncertainty can be defined. But if the parameters of uncertainty can be defined, are they really uncertainties? Although I confess to a penchant for paradox, the apparent contradiction will be more comprehensible if we bear in mind the distinction made by a former U.S. Secretary of Defense, the late Donald Rumsfeld, between “known unknowns” (“that is to say, we know there are somethings we do not know”) and “unknown unknowns” (“the ones we don’t know we don’t know”). My emphasis will be on geopolitics: broadly speaking, while the world has indeed become more uncertain, what we are confronted with are primarily “known unknowns.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, International Order, and Uncertainty
Political Geography:: Global Focus

183. Unpacking ‘One Nation, Two States’: The Panoptic Aliyev-Demirel Fraternity

Author:: Ayça Ergun
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The exceptional, privileged, and special relationship between Azerbaijan and Türkiye is well known. The two countries are not only friendly allies but also strategic partners whose foreign policy priorities and strategic and economic interests overlap. The leaders of both countries enjoy their partnership as statespersons and friends dating back to when President Heydar Aliyev led Azerbaijan and President Süleyman Demirel led Türkiye. Both they and their respective successors have frequently referred to their brotherhood in the eyes of their respective publics and when addressing other audiences around the world. Thus, the same pattern has also been embraced by the current presidents of the two states, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev, who both underline and highlight the motto of “one nation, two states” on almost all occasions related to foreign policy, peace, and security building in the Silk Road region, fostering economic ties, and constructing an energy and transportation hub and connectivity network in the region. This motto is not only a reflection of the policies and priorities of the two states but is also a result of the societal perceptions, popular support, and meanings attributed to each other by their respective public opinions. The social dimension of bilateral relations constitutes the backbone of the preferences and priorities of the leaders of both countries. Linguistic and cultural affinity facilitates communication between ordinary citizens, who greet each other with a warm welcome, resulting in “feeling like at home” in each other’s countries. Simply put, traveling to Türkiye for an ordinary Azerbaijani citizen does not really feel like going abroad: from the early years of restored independence, there was a pre-assumption of kinship with Anatolian Turks. For an ordinary citizen of Türkiye, who was much less literate on Azerbaijani culture and its people than his/her typical Azerbaijani counterpart, it was a sweet surprise to meet with people who speak (more or less) the same language. It was even more surprising to see how he/ she was treated like “one of their own” in Azerbaijan, regardless of the occasion—whether due to a government visit, business trip, or to engage in trade (since Azerbaijan was not, until recently, a tourist destination for an ordinary citizen of Türkiye). Indeed, various types of social encounters have made both ordinary Azerbaijanis and ordinary Turks see how similar they are to each other. In the more than thirty years since Azerbaijan regained its independence in 1991, societal interaction and peopleto-people contact have increased extensively through official visits, commercial relations, educational programs, civil societal initiatives, and intermarriages. One can thus argue that the framework adopted by Demirel and Heydar Aliyev has been significantly filled-in, adopted, reconstructed, and fortified by numerous groups and initiatives originating in the two societies themselves.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

184. The Turkish Gas Hub Project: A Pivotal Putin and Erdogan Arrangement

Author:: Rahim Rahimov
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Russian-Turkish relations have gone through a significant transformation under the leadership of Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Initially characterized as a Putin-Erdogan partnership, now the bilateral relationship has evolved into a strategic partnership between the two states. Uniquely, NATO member state Türkiye has effectively and, so far, successfully dealt with Russia and Ukraine amidst the ongoing war between them. However, contemporary contradictions, imperial pasts, a legacy of conflict and wars, and related mutual distrust and suspicion continue to linger in the background and, one could say, just below the surface: characterizing the ties that bind Ankara and Moscow is, thus, hardly a straightforward endeavor. This essay looks not only to the historical record but also explores the perspectives of the TurkishRussian partnership within the framework of an increasingly important thread of the relationship in the time ahead: Putin’s Turkish gas hub proposal, which he made in late 2022 in response to broader developments in the conflict over Ukraine. A major conclusion is that Ankara and Moscow are set to take forward their bilateral relations despite their historical baggage and current geopolitical and geo-economic circumstances. In this context, the Turkish gas hub project represents a pivotal idea for the future trajectory of this important bilateral relationship.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Gas
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Turkey

185. Time for an EU Foreign Policy Update? The EU and the Silk Road Region in Wartime

Author:: Samuel Doveri Vesterbye
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The European Union has a short history of handling foreign policy when compared to other political actors on the international stage. Most others have a foreign policy tradition that dates back several decades, hundreds of years, or longer. The EU thus remains a paradox. This can be seen by contrasting two characteristic sets of facts. On the one hand, it has established 140 embassies (“delegations”) worldwide and states that it is the single-largest global donor of international development aid. The EU is China’s second biggest trade partner (and America’s biggest trade partner), and its 447-million population continues to set many of the world’s trade and regulatory standards (it is not without cause often described as a “regulatory superpower”). On the other hand, the EU’s foreign policy administration, known as the European External Action Service (EEAS), has existed for barely a decade and a half. In fact, its competences in international relations only date back to the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, while its instruments, strategies, and external budgets remain less than two decades old. With the exception of the EU’s enlargement policy, the EU’s foreign policy strategies—the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and the Global Strategy— only date back to 2004 and 2015, respectively. It is within this context that we must understand and analyze both the successes and challenges that the EU’s nascent foreign policy faces today. This essay first describes what is generally understood to be the EU’s foreign policy, including policies, strategies, and instruments. This is followed by an analysis of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the EU’s geopolitical and geo-economic thinking and thereby also its inherent foreign policy positions and interests. The third part briefly analyses how certain policies—namely the accession policy in the specific case of Türkiye and the Eastern P a r t n e r s h i p (EaP)—face serious challenges as a result of the geopolitical impact of the conflict over Ukraine and the gradual decoupling of Russian energ y-supplies and transportation corridors. The fourth part briefly examines how the EU is likely to inevitably reposition itself, in geographic terms, as a result of the ongoing war and its effects. This policy is likely to support a united EU that aims to fulfill its internal energy needs while obtaining sustainable access to rare-earths as well as relocated supply chains. The final part outlines how portions of a new EU foreign policy can potentially support this new geopolitical reality by establishing a more securityfocused, sustainable, and geographically diversified foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, South Caucasus, and Silk Road Region

186. The France-Azerbaijan Relationship: Realities and Misunderstandings

Author:: Maxime Gauin
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The bilateral crises of 2020 and 2022 between Paris and Baku have provoked more emotional reactions than either dispassionate analyses or detailed projects to attempt to lastingly resolve the issue. This is not to say that relations between Azerbaijan and France are anywhere near where they should be—far from it; but supporters of what the relationship has been and could be again, to say nothing of those seeking to understand its present or wanting to shape its future course in a more agreeable direction—in accordance with the national interests of both Baku and Paris—have been done a great disservice by those who, intentionally or not, distort or misinterpret the speeches and deeds of either state’s decisionmakers and influencers. The main aims of this essay are to explain the origins of the current problems and (this is inextricably linked) to challenge the misunderstandings, misconceptions, and myths accumulated on both sides. This makes it necessary to start by providing the necessary historical background, in part because a misleading version of this past is presented today. And this misdirection itself has become an obstacle for the restoration of mutual understanding, to say nothing of warm and friendly relations. The second part of the essay will examine more recent events (1988-2017). The third and final part is devoted to the contemporary period (the Macron era), with its missed opportunities, and to some discussion of possible ways to bring an end to this litany of errors.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

187. The Iceberg Melted: The Enhanced Visibility of Strategic Ties Between Israel and Azerbaijan

Author:: Arthur Lenk
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The strategic depth of the relationship between the State of Israel and the Republic of Azerbaijan may surprise many people. Each has found a discreet partner in the other that offers key, unique resources allowing both to respond successfully to some of their primary geopolitical challenges. The two small countries are both squeezed in complicated, unpeaceful neighborhoods; both have long-term simmering conflicts with challenging neighbors; and both see themselves as rational actors often needing to deal with unfair media and diplomatic treatment. They have quietly come together to partner in core areas like energy and security over a now significant amount of time while widening their cooperation to spheres like tourism, education, and investing in startups. The recent announcement that Azerbaijan will open an embassy in Israel removed one of the few outstanding limitations to consolidating fully the deep, strategic relationship between the two countries. Baku’s decision was warmly welcomed by Israel’s then Prime Minister Yair Lapid and President Isaac Herzog, together with public figures and foreign policy experts across the political divide in Israel. Azerbaijan’s parliament passed legislation on 18 November 2022 to approve funding for embassies in Israel, Albania, and Kenya along with a representative diplomatic office in Palestine, which was signed by President Ilham Aliyev into law a few days later. It is expected that the new embassy will be inaugurated in Tel Aviv some time in 2023.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

188. European Union’s Role in the Maritime Security in Africa

Author:: António Gonçalves Alexandre
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The European Union depends on safe oceans for economic development, free trade, transport, energy security, tourism and a good marine environment. Maritime security stresses the importance of protecting the maritime domain from numerous threats, including disputes between states and various forms of transnational crime, but also the need to ensure a good order at sea, which is mandatory for the wellbeing and prosperity of the citizens. This paper aims to analyze the global maritime security production strategy followed by the European Union in Africa in the last decade and how it has influenced the protection of its member states’ interests in two of the most relevant maritime regions – the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Guinea. We argue that the EU has, in recent years, become a relevant global coproducer of maritime security in Africa and has even sought to strengthen its role in this area.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Africa, Horn of Africa, and Gulf of Guinea

189. Turkish - Egyptian Relations under Erdoğan in the Light of the Regional Security Complexes Theory

Author:: Martin Dudáš
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: AKP's rise to power in Turkey brought economic development and the reexamination of the country's self-perception. Erdoğan's foreign policy aimed to develop relations with Middle Eastern countries so that Turkey could become the region's leader. This article focuses on Turkey's relations with Egypt within the Regional Security Complexes Theory framework. It argues that the rise of Turkey's influence and power led to new alignments between the region's countries. Following the coup led by General el-Sisi, Egypt became hostile to Ankara and sought allies to help it counterbalance Turkey. Thus, it began cooperating with Greece and Cyprus, states that do not belong to the Middle Eastern RSC. This new alignment then slowed down the process of normalisation of ties between Cairo and Ankara, which became possible only after both countries experienced economic problems, and the regional climate changed after the blockade of Qatar ended.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt

190. International Impact of American Politics

Author:: Victor H. Ashe
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: The divisiveness of American politics has always been around at some level since World War II, but it seems to have reached new heights in 2022. Among negative consequences, some candidates whose qualifications seem hard to discern were elected. However, we live in a democracy, and voters are entitled to their views even if they may be mistaken. Robust debate is vital, but in many cases candidates from both American political parties have refused to appear together to debate. This is especially unfortunate in my view as voters should be able to see and hear opposing candidates debate each other. The presidential candidates in both Brazil and France appeared together in 2022. Yet it is not clear that 2024 will see our two major party nominees sharing the same stage to debate. Even on a local level where I live in Knoxville, Tennessee, several Republican candidates from local to federal levels simply declined to debate their Democratic opponents or respond to questions. Several of those GOP nominees were articulate and could have held their own but opted not to showcase themselves. Such an attitude is wrong in my view and totally driven by narrow partisan political considerations. It deprives voters of a first-hand view of the opposing candidates.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

191. OSCE: American Diplomacy in the Heart of Europe

Author:: James S. Gilmore III
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: On a warm day in September 2019, I left the United States Mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to travel to the historic “ring” in the center of Vienna, Austria, to attend the weekly Permanent Council meeting of that organization. Leaving the U.S. Mission, located in a modern high-rise office building overlooking a bridge over the Danube, I climbed into an armored SUV and was driven to the Hofburg Palace where OSCE convenes. That was my first meeting as U.S. Ambassador; in fact, it was the first meeting following the summer recess of OSCE. I got out of the car at the entrance to the Hofburg Palace, which once was the in-town residence of the Hapsburg monarchy. I was waived through the security checkpoint. Inside was a small elevator, built into a stone spiral staircase, typical of old Vienna. Then I moved through a large social space with table and chairs and into the meeting hall for the Permanent Council. The hall is very large, built out of a grand palace space. The ceilings are 40 feet high, with big video screens. The hall is arranged with adjoining tables assembled in a long rectangle, with the Chairman and Secretary General seated at one end, as well as seats on the sides for the 57 ambassadors representing the member countries of OSCE. Across the way from my seat sat the ambassador from Ukraine, and down the table on his side, the ambassador of the Russian Federation. To my right were the seats for Andorra, and then Armenia and Azerbaijan, two hostile countries, side by side, all in alphabetical order according to the country names in the French language. All the ambassadors were dressed in suits and business attire, because, after all, they represent their countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and OSCE
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

192. China and Russia's Far East

Author:: Richard Holwill
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin crowed about his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying that China and Russia have forged a “friendship without limits.” So far, the Chinese President has backed Putin’s attacks on Ukraine. This agreement serves China’s foreign policy goals, at least for now. China hopes to build an international order in which it supplants the United States as a leader of the international community. Because Putin’s Russia supports that goal, China supports Russia. But make no mistake, this friendship does have limits. At some point, China will have reasons to break with Russia and could do so in a dramatic fashion. The break will be driven by another of China’s foreign policy goals: the desire to regain all of the territory and dominance that it enjoyed prior to its “hundred years of humiliation,” which is how Chinese scholars and officials describe the period from 1839 and 1949, during which the Western powers, along with Japan and Russia, seized Chinese territory. Through that period, China agreed to a series of unequal treaties that allowed those powers to “pick China’s bones.” In 1839, China lost Hong Kong to the British. The Portuguese took Macau in 1887. Following the Sino-Japanese War in 1895, the Empire of Japan took Dalian and Taiwan. The Germans seized Jiqozhou Bay and Tsingtao in 1898. China ceded Zhanjiang to France in 1898.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

193. Global Security Disorder

Author:: Kay Bailey Hutchinson
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: The first half of 2022 had a profound effect on the global security order, revealing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s empirical ambitions, galvanizing unity among freedom-loving nations and affecting China’s next steps. It set the stage for the discussions of foreign policy thinkers and practitioners at the Aspen Security Forum and the Aspen Strategy Group Summer Workshop last summer. The Aspen Security Forum is one of North America's most preeminent foreign policy conferences. In February, Russia invaded Ukraine, the largest hostile land invasion of a sovereign nation in Europe since World War II. In June, NATO adopted its once-in-a-decade Strategic Concept that recognized major power competition and a potential for conflict that must be addressed.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Global Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

194. The European Union’s Economic Development Strategy and Cooperation with the Countries of Central Asia

Author:: Mukesh Shankar Bharti
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The purpose of this study is to analyse the European Union (EU) economic and development cooperation in Central Asia. EU’s economic support to Central Asian countries strengthens its position in this region. Central Asia is a key strategic area for cooperation and the EU seems to have deeper engagement. Moreover, this research highlights the EU’s strategic gear up with Central Asian countries from 2007 to till now. Since the EU launched the Central Asia Strategy in 2007, the objective of this policy is to provide development assistance and establish diplomatic channels in the region. The following research questions rely on, why is Central Asia important to the EU and how does it shape relations with Central Asian countries? And this study relies on qualitative analysis that will be used in this research which addresses the main research problems. Further, the study uses the empirical approach to justify answers to the questions and identify the research outcomes.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, European Union, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Europe and Central Asia

195. The importance of the United States in Poland’s military security policy in the context of the war in Ukraine

Author:: Łukasz Jureńczyk
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The subject of the article is the importance of the United States in Poland’s military security policy in relation to the war in Ukraine. The article begins with an introduction discussing its main assumptions and a synthetic historical background of the importance of the US for Poland and its security. The main part of the article is divided into two parts, the first one discussing the importance of the US in Poland’s military security policy after the Cold War. The second part is devoted to the change in the importance of the US in this policy in connection with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the main factors that determine this change. The aim of the article is to identify and analyze the changes in the importance of the United States in the Polish military security policy as a result of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. The main research problem is whether the importance of the US in Poland’s military security policy increased as a result of the war, and if so, because of what main factors? The thesis of the article states that the war in Ukraine increased the importance of the US as the main external guarantor of Poland’s security and defense. This is due to the leading role played by the United States in military support for Ukraine and strengthening NATO’s eastern flank, including Poland, in the absence of leadership from Western European powers. The research included interviews with scientists and analysts from research centers in Washington and New York.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Poland, and United States of America

196. NERINT Strategic Analysis: The Brazilian Challenge of Reactivating UNASUR and Strengthening MERCOSUR

Author:: Leonardo Granato
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: In his third presidential term, President Lula has been devoting a large part of his government agenda to foreign policy, aimed at strengthening the country’s capacity to advance its interests and, within the aforementioned public policy, at rebuilding integration relations with neighboring countries. Faced with the spread of nationalism and protectionist postures in the midst of a complex international scene marked by the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and tensions between the United States and China, the Brazilian option is for the defense of peace, dialogue and cooperation, starting with its strategic environment represented by South America and Mercosur.With regard to the South American region, the Brazilian government’s ability to convene and unify perspectives was challenged by the heterogeneity of agendas and priorities of different countries, even among countries with progressive governments. In fact, the so-called “Consensus of Brasilia”, a joint declaration resulting from the presidential meeting of May 30, 2023, highlights the size of the aforementioned challenge, since there was no mention, in that declaration, of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and its reactivation. Faced with its dismantling during the Bolsonaro government, carrying forward the Brazilian government’s priority objective of reactivating UNASUR will require, perhaps more than in the past, a broad effort to build consensus.With regard to Mercosur, also under a setback in recent years, Brazil will play, during the second half of 2023, the pro-tempore presidency of the bloc, which will represent the opportunity for the Brazilian state to project its foreign policy priorities, as well as the principles that guide its internal public policies. In President Lula’s own speech at the 62nd Mercosur Summit, which took place in Puerto Iguazú (Argentina) on July 4, 2023, the major issues to be privileged during his tenure at the head of the bloc were portrayed. Such matters refer, essentially, to the strengthening of Mercosur in its multiple dimensions, and to the conclusion of the bi-regional agreement with the European Union.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Trade, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Europe, Brazil, and South America

197. Unavoidable Clashes: Exploring the Implications of a China-Russia Alliance on Global Geopolitics

Author:: Sanjar Yakhshilikov
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The current relations between China and Russia are the result of the rapprochement policies of both countries. Shared fears about US hegemony, mutual economic benefits, and strong links between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin escalated Sino-Russia relations into a new stage. Russia needs regional security in Southeast Asia, and even though the strategic interests of China and Russia do not match over the region, they are both eager to contain the US. Recent Russia – Ukraine border issues are well-matched with China – Taiwan issues that also make the states feel mutuality between them. The results of the two issues may be the same. Moscow is making sure as time goes by that rapprochement with the West is impossible, Russia is going to suffer from economic sanctions, and the West has already begun decoupling. Despite all of the partnerships and mutuality, China and Russia are still not allies. The inactive confrontations between the two outnumber all of the abovementioned positives.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Russia and China

198. The Governments of Mauricio Macri and Jair Bolsonaro: Ideology, Pragmatism and Foreign Policy

Author:: André Luiz Coelho, Mariano Ignacio Treacy, and Beatriz Bandeira de Mello
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article compares the foreign policy of the governments of Mauricio Macri in Argentina and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, based on the positions of the presidents and their representatives on three issues: 1) relations with the United States, 2) with China and 3) regional integration. We suggest that the Macri government has had to adapt its positions and discursive practices throughout its administration to national and international pressures. We understand that Jair Bolsonaro has adopted a similar stance in his foreign agenda and that his discourses, although strongly ideological, are opposed to more pragmatic actions, especially in the Brazilian economic and trade agendas, as in Argentina. The methodology used in this study is content analysis of speeches and reports from the Brazilian and Argentine foreign ministries, and the theoretical contributions of foreign policy analysis.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, Ideology, Regional Integration, Jair Bolsonaro, and Mauricio Macri
Political Geography:: China, Brazil, South America, and United States of America

199. New Enemies, Old Strategies: Barack Obama's Foreign Policy Based on the Two Presidencies Thesis

Author:: José Francelino Galdino Neto and Marcos Aurélio Guedes de Oliveira
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: How has the relationship between the President and Congress impacted the foreign policy of the Barack Obama administration (2009-2017)? The main objectives of the research are to analyze the foreign policy of the Barack Obama administration based on the relationship between the President and Congress, testing whether the type of policy, domestic or foreign, can explain the occurrence of bipartisanship in votes within Congress. The research design combines the analysis and classification of all 2341 votes taken in the US Senate during the eight years of the Obama administration with an in-depth theoretical and historical analysis typical of case studies. The findings confirm our expectations. In short, during the Obama administration, bipartisanship between Republicans and Democrats was greater in foreign policy than in domestic policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, American Presidency, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:: United States of America

200. Contemporary British Policy in Africa

Author:: Alisa Shishkina and Nikolay Medushevskiy
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The subject of this article is UK policy in Africa in the last historical period. The starting point of the study is 1997, when Anthony Blair became the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, who, after a long pause, proposed a new approach to political interaction with African states. It was from this moment that African issues became one of the stable vectors of state policy and appeared as a complex sphere of Britain's activities in the international arena. Within the framework of the study, a historical-problematic research method was also used to analyze the evolution of African policy under different cabinets of ministers in the period from 1997 to 2021 in a single complex of historical, political and economic conditions and in the context of general changes in the international situation. The main events by which the dynamics of changes in UK policy towards African countries can be tracked have been considered in this article. The authors came to the conclusion that the UK has not yet achieved a clear approach to interaction with African countries. As a result, the unstable course of cooperation set by Blair continues to maintain its relevance and determines bilateral policy in a rapidly changing global space.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, History, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Africa and United Kingdom

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS