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161. Despliegue del poder blando chino en América Latina y recepción en los países de la región

Author:
Juan Ignacio Brito Munita and Francisco Javier Tagle Montt
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
El concepto del poder blando ha cobrado relevancia en Relaciones Internacionales. Asociado típicamente a EE.UU., en los últimos años también China ha promovido su poder blando, llegando a América Latina. Tras revisar las dificultades para acordar una definición del término, esta investigación observa el fenómeno desde una doble perspectiva: por un lado, analiza el despliegue del poder blando chino en la región; por otro, evalúa la respuesta de los países latinoamericanos ante él. Postula que, mientras China usa una definición amplia del poder blando que aplica en la región y la vincula prioritariamente a aspectos de su política doméstica, la recepción de los gobiernos latinoamericanos la hace depender de la variable siguiente: aunque todos acogen la ofensiva económica china y se acercan al gigante asiático, la manera en que reaccionan a ella está condicionada a la postura que mantienen hacia EE.UU.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Soft Power, and Hard Power
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, and United States of America

162. La política exterior argentina: Equilibrios y continuidades entre China y Estados Unidos

Author:
Florencia Rubiolo and Diego Telias
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La competencia entre Estados Unidos y China en el ámbito comercial, tecnológico y geopolítico tiene repercusiones globales. América Latina, a pesar de una creciente irrelevancia, también es una arena donde estas potencias están compitiendo. Argentina no ha quedado fuera de esta disyuntiva y, al igual que otros países de la región, ha intentado mantener un equilibrio entre ambas potencias, por la importancia que cada una reviste: Estados Unidos en lo financiero y China tanto en lo comercial como en materia de inversiones. En este artículo, a través de un repaso teórico, análisis de documentos oficiales y entrevistas, se analiza la política exterior de Alberto Fernández hacia China en el contexto de las divergencias entre ambos Estados. Concluimos que Argentina ha intentado de manera continua un equilibrio, aunque no implica equidistancia, ante una situación en donde los gobiernos aún no han sido presionados a optar.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Finance, Investment, Trade, Competition, and Equilibrium
Political Geography:
China, Argentina, South America, and United States of America

163. Brasil-Estados Unidos-China en el orden global a principios del siglo XXI: Un análisis desde la perspectiva de la política exterior brasileña

Author:
Maria da Luz Ramos, Carla Guapo da Costa, and Gabrieli Gaio
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Este artículo aborda las diversas orientaciones de la política exterior brasileña (PEB) en el siglo XXI teniendo en cuenta el contexto de las relaciones establecidas entre Brasil y dos importantes actores del orden geopolítico contemporáneo: Estados Unidos (EEUU) y China. Desde una lectura geopolítica Norte-Sur del orden global, se analiza la(s) forma(s) en que el PEB y sus actores construyen sus representaciones sobre dichos actores y estructuran, en consecuencia, su agenda externa en relación con ellos.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:
China, Brazil, South America, United States of America, Global South, and Global North

164. Ilusión de la verdad y fake news: Las mentiras repetidas de Hitler, Trump, el independentismo catalán y los bulos de la COVID-19

Author:
Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La investigación en psicología ha mostrado que tendemos a dar mayor veracidad a aquella información que recibimos de manera repetida y reiterada. Este sesgo cognitivo, denominado efecto de ilusión de verdad o de verdad ilusoria, se basa en la mayor facilidad que tenemos los seres humanos para procesar cognitivamente la información que nos resulta familiar. En este artículo se describe este sesgo cognitivo y su relación con la propagación de noticias falsas en determinados contextos y acontecimientos sociohistóricos, como instrumento para confundir y manipular a la opinión pública. Entre estos acontecimientos podemos citar las mentiras difundidas por la Administración Bush en 2003 en torno a la supuesta posesión de armas de destrucción masiva por parte de Irak; el uso indiscriminado de fakes por el expresidente de los Estados Unidos, Donald Trump; la campaña de distribución de información falsa por parte del independentismo catalán; y la propagación incontrolada de fakes y bulos en nuestro país durante la pandemia de COVID-19.
Topic:
Public Opinion, COVID-19, Disinformation, Fake News, and Cognitive Bias
Political Geography:
Spain, Global Focus, and United States of America

165. Los retos de Honduras en materia de inseguridad. El dilema de Xiomara Castro ante el populismo punitivo y de la seguridad.

Author:
Javier Lozano Cobos
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La militarización y el combate como herramienta casi exclusiva contra la violencia y la inseguridad ha sido el paradigma de profundo calado en Honduras y la mayor parte de la región, lo que implica la solución a los problemas de inseguridad en clave de guerra. Este conflicto asimétrico entre los grupos criminales y los Estados se recrudeció a raíz de la Guerra contra las Drogas iniciada por el presidente mexicano Calderón, y no es sino la continuación de las diversas guerras contra ya ensayadas en Centroamérica bajo inspiración de los EEUU. Con la llegada al poder de la presidenta hondureña, Xiomara Castro, se advertía un cambio en relación a las políticas de seguridad que no se enfocaran exclusivamente en la mano dura, sino que abordara la reforma integral del Estado priorizando la lucha contra la corrupción y la impunidad, así como la mejora de la calidad de la democracia. Una ola de populismo punitivo recorre la región, pero la mejora en los niveles de inseguridad en Honduras no será sostenible mediante el uso exclusivo de la fuerza ni estados de excepción.
Topic:
Corruption, Human Rights, War on Drugs, Democracy, Geopolitics, Inequality, Populism, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Latin America, Honduras, and United States of America

166. Exploring the Interplay between Trade and Industrial Policies and the Impact of Geopolitics on the Transformation of Taiwan’s Economy

Author:
Ying-Jun Lin
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Over the past five decades, Taiwan's economy has shifted from inward-oriented to outward-oriented, from an import-substitution policy to an export-expansion policy. This evolution in economic structure has also brought about changes in the industrial landscape. While there is an ongoing debate about the respective roles of the market and the government in promoting Taiwan's economic growth, this article argues that the history of Taiwan's economy demonstrates a mutually beneficial relationship between trade and industrial policies. The integration of market forces and government intervention has played a crucial role in Taiwan's economic success story. However, the dynamics between the United States and China, as well as the emergence of new Asian regionalism, pose challenges to Taiwanese industries and enterprises. In conclusion, this article emphasises the importance of refining trade and industrial policies in line with the geopolitical context in order to maintain the momentum of Taiwan's economy.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Dependency
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

167. CTC Sentinel: August 2023 Issue

Author:
Amira Jadoon, Andrew Mines, Abdul Sayed, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Lucas Webber, and Alec Bertina
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
As we enter a new era of calibrated counterterrorism 22 years after 9/11, in this month’s feature article senior analysts at the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center provide a unique window into the U.S. government’s continuing efforts to suppress international terrorism. NCTC director Christine Abizaid writes: “It is clear to me that Americans at home and abroad would be confronted with a more severe terrorism threat if it were not for the sustained and focused efforts of the entire U.S. CT community over the past 22 years. As we approach another 9/11 anniversary, I asked senior analysts from NCTC to share more with the public and academic community about the constant, behind-the-scenes work of CT professionals across the government. It is my hope that, through this product, others can gain a greater degree of insight into what this community regularly confronts in its mission to protect innocent civilians from persistent terrorist adversaries.” In the second feature article, Amira Jadoon, Andrew Mines, and Abdul Sayed examine the enduring threat posed by Islamic State Khorasan (ISK). They write: “An analysis of ISK’s operations, outreach, and clashes with the Taliban indicate that the organization remains capable of strategic adaptation and is only broadening and deepening its influence in the region, posturing to become a truly regional organization. And while the Taliban have demonstrated some capacity in targeting ISK commanders, any security gains are unlikely to hold in the absence of sustained counter-ISK operations.” With the Islamic State earlier this month announcing the appointment of its fifth caliph, Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, Aymenn Al-Tamimi examines what little is known about the group’s recent paramount leaders. He writes: “Despite the fact that the group’s caliphs are now very much ‘men of the shadows,’ there is little evidence pointing to the prospect of the group’s fragmentation in Iraq, Syria, or elsewhere around the world, with the group’s affiliates seemingly willing to accept successor caliphs about whom little or nothing is publicly known.” Lucas Webber and Alec Bertina profile the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM) and its paramilitary wing, the Russian Imperial Legion (RIL), tracing their involvement in the Ukraine conflict since 2014. They write: “With the Wagner Group’s resources waning, there may be an opportunity for RIM/RIL to deepen its involvement in Russia’s efforts in Ukraine. This could bolster the group’s recruitment, paramilitary capabilities, and thus increase the broader threat it poses. However, the organization may face sanctions in the future from the Russian state if the Kremlin continues to clamp down on Russian pro-war ultra-nationalist elements.”
Topic:
Security, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, 9/11, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Syria, North America, and United States of America

168. CTC Sentinel: July 2023 Issue

Author:
Matthew Levitt, Lauren Von Thaden, Don Rassler, and Tore Hamming
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Matthew Levitt and Lauren von Thaden examine the recent heightened smuggling challenge at Israel’s borders with Jordan and Egypt. They write: “The guns and drugs that are flowing into Israel are creating societal problems and public safety issues. The influx of weapons is also a major counterterrorism concern. Smuggled weapons have been a contributing factor to the surge of violence that has plagued the West Bank and Israel.” Building on the assessments of Israeli, Jordanian, and Egyptian officials, their study draws on a dataset they compiled of “105 cases of identified, thwarted, or disrupted weapons or drug smuggling attempts into Israel from March 2021 through April 2023 across all of Israel’s borders.” Our interview is with Ravi Satkalmi, the director of intelligence of the United States Capitol Police. He describes the post-January 6 security challenge as “fundamentally different than that posed by 9/11. The risk is fundamentally different when we’re discussing this kind of normalization of political violence against each other—an erosion of our civic norms—rather than a terrorist organization seeking to launch an attack from overseas.” He says that “our goal is essentially to be the premier intel shop for anti-government violence, full stop. We are sitting on a vast trove of threat information that’s being sent to us by our members’ offices and that we are finding on our own. And the key distinction here is we get it from all sides all the time. We’re protecting Democrats; we’re protecting Republicans, people of all political persuasions.” Satkalmi came out publicly as a gay man while previously working at NYPD and describes the importance of inclusivity in the national security and counterterrorism domain. He notes that “essentially, anybody can experience the challenge of belonging and anybody can be part of the solution. If we can check some of our own assumptions about who may be struggling and who effective change agents can be, we improve the likelihood for progress.” Tore Hamming draws on a new cache of Islamic State documents he collected to examine how the Islamic State’s General Directorate of Provinces has managed the Islamic State’s global network. He writes: “With the deaths of successive caliphs, the territorial demise in the Levant, and the growing importance of its external provinces, the General Directorate of Provinces has emerged as the organization’s most decisive body.” His article “describes the institution’s decisive role in the group’s military and economic affairs and its growing responsibility managing its external attack planning and execution.”
Topic:
Political Violence, Counter-terrorism, Weapons, Islamic State, Borders, LGBT+, Drugs, Smuggling, and January 6
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

169. CTC Sentinel: June 2023 Issue

Author:
Pierre Boussel, Kristina Hummel, Teddy Macdonald, Ashley A. Mattheis, Amarnath Amarasingam, Graham Macklin, and Marc-Andre Argentino
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Pierre Boussel provides a deep examination of the Quds Force in Syria. He writes: “The key mission of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) is to defend the Iranian Islamic Revolution and create armed militias in the countries of its ‘Axis of Resistance.’ Its organization is opaque and complex, coordinating combat operations with soft-power actions aimed at, among other initiatives, establishing a Pax Irania in the Middle East, a ‘peace’ of which it is the initiator and guarantor. Although the Quds Force’s apparatus in Syria has been under pressure from Israeli airstrikes, Tehran is sticking to its mission set: infiltrating Syrian civil society and sending fighters to the north, where the civil war will one day end, and to the south, on the edge of the Golan Heights, to establish a base against Israel if necessary.” Our interview is with Brian Nelson, the Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. He describes how his office “marshals the Department’s intelligence and enforcement functions with the dual aims of safeguarding our financial system against illicit use and also combating corrupt regimes, terrorist facilitators, weapons of mass destruction proliferators, money launderers, drug kingpins, and other national security threats.” On May 6, 2023, Mauricio Garcia, a man with longstanding neo-Nazi views, murdered eight people in a mass shooting at the Allen Premium Outlets mall in Allen, Texas. Ashley Mattheis, Amarnath Amarasingam, Graham Macklin, and Marc-André Argentino look at what led to the attack. They write that the deceased perpetrator “had an ideologically fuzzy tapestry of extreme thoughts tied to rampant violence. He appeared to view neo-Nazis and other members of the extreme far-right as living the ‘real’ masculine ideal in its fullest form by their commitment to generating dominance through violent, radical, racial, and cultural action. This interaction between race and gender is an increasingly present aspect of far-right violence and needs to be better understood.”
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Financial Crimes, Far Right, Mass Shootings, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), Political Extremism, Quds Force, Domestic Terrorism, and Axis of Resistance
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, North America, United States of America, and Golan Heights

170. CTC Sentinel: May 2023 Issue

Author:
Paul Cruickshank, Abdul Sayed, Tore Hamming, Colin Clarke, and Mollie Saltskog
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
With Pakistan engulfed by political and economic turmoil, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—better known as the Pakistani Taliban—is again growing as a threat. In our feature article, Abdul Sayed and Tore Hamming write: “With the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan, the TTP has obtained new more sophisticated weapons and relocated fighters from Afghanistan to Pakistan and is now turning its focus back to its war against the Pakistani state. Over the past two years, the group has gone through a series of mergers, strengthened its media and operational activities, moved away from the indiscriminate targeting of civilians in suicide attacks, implemented a range of new internal policies centralizing its organizational structure, and settled on a localized strategy. With a solid organizational foundation and its eyes set on the Pakistani state, the TTP appears ready to follow in the footsteps of the Afghan Taliban and take control of territory in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The Taliban victory in Afghanistan has emboldened and strengthened the TTP. With the Taliban in control of Afghanistan and sympathetic to the TTP, the TTP now enjoys a level of ‘strategic depth’ that is arguably unparalleled in its history.” Our interview is with Robin Simcox, the United Kingdom’s Commissioner for Countering Extremism. He talks about tackling violent and non-violent extremism across the ideological spectrum and the findings of the recent independent review of the United Kingdom’s “Prevent” counter-extremism pillar. Wassim Nasr recounts his journey through Idlib in late April and early May 2023 on a reporting assignment for France24. He met with senior leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, including its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who told him they have definitively turned away from global jihad. In Nasr’s words: “You have a core jihadi group with core leaders saying, ‘OK, we don’t want anything to do with international jihad anymore.’ This is unique. It’s never happened before.” Colin Clarke, Mollie Saltskog, Michaela Millender, and Naureen Fink examine the recent targeting of infrastructure by America’s violent far-right. They write that “the increased focus and attacks on critical infrastructure by far-right extremists has the potential to wreak extensive, multifaceted societal disruption and damage, impacting communications, the economy, mobility, and basic human necessities.”
Topic:
Infrastructure, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Far Right, Jihad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United Kingdom, South Asia, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

171. CTC Sentinel: April 2023 Issue

Author:
Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, Marcel Plichta, Paul Cruickshank, and Lucas Webber
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The late General Wayne A. Downing, a former distinguished chair of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, used to tell his colleagues at the Center, “Who thinks wins.” In this month’s feature article, Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, and Marcel Plichta argue that smarter counterterrorism in the Sahel, and across sub-Saharan Africa, can pay big dividends for the United States on the field of great power competition. They write that “the United States is at a critical juncture as it looks to adapt its counterterrorism mission. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Sahel region of Africa, where for the past decade, the United States has relied on France to serve as the counterterrorism lead. Those days are over, at least for now, and the United States is left attempting to balance its counterterrorism efforts in the frame of great power competition. However, too often these two strategic objectives are cast as zero-sum. In reality, U.S. counterterrorism in the Sahel, if appropriately reassessed, designed, and implemented, can generate real wins for the United States as it seeks to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the region. Additionally, and most importantly, it can improve the prospects for stability and security for African states in desperate need of both.” Our interview is with two counterterrorism officials at the Catalan Police – Mossos d’Esquadra: Inspector Lluis Paradell Fernandez, head of the Central Analysis Unit, Intelligence and Counterterrorism Service, and Deputy Inspector Xavier Cortés Camacho, head of the Counterterrorism Central Area. They discuss lessons learned as a result of the 2017 Islamic State-inspired attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils, the evolving threats Catalonia faces, and the importance of “a joined-up effort in working to prevent violent extremism.” Lucas Webber and Daniele Garofalo write that “the Islamic State’s leadership and central propaganda apparatus have been pushing to boost the Somalia branch’s profile, while pro-Islamic State-Somalia groups have been producing media content to help the movement’s message reach Somali, Amharic, Oromo, and Swahili speakers to boost fundraising, recruitment, and violent incitement efforts as well as to grow grassroot support in regions populated by these ethnolinguistic communities.” They argue that “these developments could have regional security implications if the Islamic State is able to strengthen the Somalia branch using these means. Bolstered transnational connections could enable violent incitement and attacks directed into neighboring countries.” Nodirbek Soliev examines digital terror financing by central Asian jihadis. He writes that “their online financing efforts tend to involve three stages. The first is the dissemination of fundraising propaganda and contacting prospective donors via online public accounts. The second is communication via encrypted messaging apps to identify a suitable mode of transaction and to provide security protocols. The third is the transaction itself. Understanding these mechanisms can help enhance relevant countries’ response strategies against terrorism financing risks.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Spain, North America, Somalia, Sahel, and United States of America

172. ‘Follow the Money’: tracking the diffusion of the American anti-money laundering policy in Latin America (1990s-2000s)

Author:
Mariana Medeiros Bernussi, Priscila Villela, and Lívia Jardinovsky Debatin
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
Given the wide reach of transnational crimes and the illegal flow of money, policing at an international level has become a new frontier for authorities who aim to control these threats. The United States has taken the center stage in this effort ever since the proclamation of the War on Drugs and the continuing War on Terror by promoting the ‘Follow the Money’ principle as a fundamental strategy to be adopted worldwide. The main goal of this paper is to identify the US efforts to formulate and expand the anti-money laundering agenda and policies to Latin America, from the 1990s to the 2000s, mobilizing the policy diffusion approach. By incorporating this thinking tool, we also aim to highlight the United States hegemonic position when establishing agendas and priorities internationally. Therefore, based on a qualitative design, we trace US official documents describing strategies, practices and policies aimed at promoting anti-money laundering policies in Latin American institutions through coercion, competition, learning and emulation mechanisms. As a result, by promoting training events and formulating evaluation mechanisms, the US has stimulated Latin American countries to elaborate their own law enforcement efforts inspired by these same paradigms, indicating that the US uses these anti-money launderinginstruments to promote its policy agenda internationally.
Topic:
War on Drugs, Financial Crimes, War on Terror, Money Laundering, and Policy Diffusion
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

173. The Transition from Nationalism to Islamism in Iran’s Foreign Policy

Author:
M. Reza Pashayi and Timuçin Kodaman
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
The 1979 Iranian Revolution is a multifaceted phenomenon with intricate causes, complex evolution and far-reaching outcomes. Rooted in the Constitutional Revolution of the early 20th century and the rise to power of the Ayatollahs, its beginnings are distinct but interconnected. Unlike many revolutions of the 20th century, the 1979 Iranian Revolution was a departure from the socialist or communist model and manifested itself as a revolt against both Western and Eastern systems, with unique outcomes. The 1979 Revolution shook a traditional and established order and paved the way for the rise of Islamism within a new political framework. This ideology, like its predecessors, adopted a singular leadership based on religious doctrine. To differentiate itself from global and regional powers and focus on its unique revolution, the Iranian regime shaped a foreign policy summarized by the slogan “neither East nor West, the Islamic Republic” and aimed to export this ideology globally. The policy focused primarily on political and ideological interests, resulting in permanent sanctions imposed by the United States. This economic aspect contributes to the changes in Iran’s foreign policy towards the United States, from pre-revolutionary Persian nationalism to post-Revolutionary political Islam, emphasizing its strength and adaptability in the face of external pressures.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Shiism, and Iranian Revolution
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

174. Dominating the Superpower: A Bounded Rationality Approach to Nuclear Proliferation and Inhibition in the U.S. / North Korea Dyad

Author:
Sercan Canbolat and Stephen Benedict Dyson
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Why was the United States, despite its overwhelming superiority in power, unable to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons? Why did North Korea persist in its nuclear pursuit in the face of U.S. opposition? In this article, we represent nuclear proliferation and counter-proliferation as situations of subjective strategic interaction between states. We measure preferences over strategies and outcomes using operational codes of the leaders of each country, derived via linguistic analysis. Our results indicate that neither the U.S. nor North Korea accurately understood the other side’s preference ordering, and that their operational codes interacted in such a way as to produce an outcome favorable to North Korea – the weaker party - and unfavorable to the U.S. – the stronger. The wider contribution is to show that (mis)perceptions of the goals and resolve of the opponent play a crucial role in the success or failure of strong states to compel weak states and vice versa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Leadership, and Perception
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

175. Book Review: Sebastian Rosato, Intentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict (Yale University Press, 2021)

Author:
Orhan Mehmed Irfan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Students and practitioners of International Relations have always been wondering whether the effects of anarchy can be mitigated, where anarchy stands for the absence of hierarchical organization among states. In other words, is it possible for states to abandon their endemic suspicions and anxieties, and start to trust each other? Sebastian Rosato, with his timely and much needed work, concludes that this cannot be the case and those who foresee rosy scenarios for the United States (US)-China rivalry are, to put it mildly, mistaken.
Topic:
Power Politics, Book Review, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and United States of America

176. Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies

Author:
Merve ÖZDEMİRKIRAN-EMBEL, B. Toygar Halistoprak, and Michael Young
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, Leadership, Donald Trump, and Political Beliefs
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

177. Reagan in China: Don’t Say Anything about the Turkeys

Author:
Beatrice Camp
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Twelve years after President Nixon’s historic opening to China, President Ronald Reagan visited the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in April 1984. The visit was a vast undertaking with an enormous entourage – Ambassador Arthur Hummel was reportedly stunned to hear that the president’s party would number over 800. For a politician like Reagan who had repeatedly criticized President Jimmy Carter for establishing diplomatic relations with Beijing, it was a huge move. For the Chinese, it was a very welcome symbol of acceptance. First lady Nancy Reagan accompanied her husband; some 600 journalists covered the trip. The Reagans toured historical and cultural sites in Beijing and attended a State Dinner at the Great Hall of the People before traveling on to Xian and Shanghai.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Memoir
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

178. Stepping Up Our Climate Diplomacy

Author:
Charles Ray
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
At the opening of the COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on November 7, 2022, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres told the representatives of the countries attending that they faced a choice: work together to cut greenhouse gas emissions or condemn the planet to climate catastrophe. “Humanity has a choice,” Guterres said. “Cooperate or perish. We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator.” Guterres called for the world’s richest and poorest countries to work together to speed up the transition from fossil fuels, and for the wealthy to help with funding to enable poor countries reduce emissions and deal with the negative impacts that they have already suffered due to climate change. “The two largest economies—the United States and China—have a particular responsibility to join efforts to make this pact a reality,” he went on to say. Left unsaid, but understood by most, is that China and the U.S. are also the world’s two largest emitters of greenhouse gases. While the U.S. and much of the rest of the world are still preoccupied with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rampant inflation, energy shortages, and the fallout from the Covid pandemic, the existential problem of climate change cannot be ignored.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and United States of America

179. Would You Say No to Shirley Temple on Thanksgiving?

Author:
Raymond F. Smith
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
During the Reagan presidency, “trust, but verify” became the operating principle for negotiations with the Soviet Union on strategic matters, particularly on arms control agreements. The administration’s guidance to those of us in the trenches remained as it had been for previous administrations of both parties. We were to continue to adhere to the principle of reciprocity. In the day-to-day business of managing relations with the Soviet Union, reciprocity essentially meant that if they cut us some slack, we would do the same. Generally, the Soviet Union did not cut us any slack, so we did our best not to cut them any. The top-down authoritarianism of the Soviet system gave them some inherent advantages on these matters, since they faced no pressures to relax the treatment accorded to our diplomats, whereas we frequently did. In the early 1980s, I oversaw the bilateral relations section of the State Department’s Soviet desk, responsible for managing the nitty-gritty of everyday relations. While serving in Moscow just a few years previously, I had been on the receiving end of Soviet “hospitality” toward American diplomats and was generally immovable on issues of reciprocity. Which brings us to Shirley Temple. Those of us of a certain age remember her as the irresistible tyke who tap-danced and sang her way into our hearts on the silver screen. Shirley Temple as a child, curtsey, right hand under chin, right foot forward As an adult, Shirley Temple Black developed an interest in international affairs and served as U.S. ambassador to Ghana, then later to Czechoslovakia. And now, on this chilly November day in Washington, my secretary informed me that she was on the phone and wanted to speak to me. She had, she told me, invited the Soviet consul general in San Francisco to her home in the hilly outskirts of the city for Thanksgiving. She believed that enabling him to experience this quintessential American holiday in a real American home would help him to develop a better understanding and appreciation of our way of life. He had replied that he would be delighted to come, but the State Department would not let him because her home was in an area that Soviet diplomats were not allowed to visit. (At this point, I quietly asked one of my staff to find out whether her home was in a closed area and learned shortly that, in fact, it was.) He had told her that unless she could persuade the State Department to grant him an exception to visit her home he would very regretfully have to decline her generous offer.
Topic:
Cold War, Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Memoir
Political Geography:
Soviet Union and United States of America

180. Where the “Marshall Plan” Became the Organization for European Economic Cooperation

Author:
Renee M. Earle
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
In 2022, Europe and the U.S. marked the 75th anniversary of the Marshall Plan, and this year is the 20th anniversary of a permanent Paris exhibit that documents its achievements. When I was posted to Paris as the Public Affairs Officer from 2002 to 2006, the public affairs offices (except for the press section), along with the consular affairs services, were in the Hôtel de Talleyrand facing the Place de la Concorde, about a block from the main U.S. embassy building. The Talleyrand, as we called it, gave visitors easier access for these more public functions of the embassy. Running back and forth to meetings at the embassy was a small price to pay for offices overlooking the majestic Concorde. In 2003, the Talleyrand marked a new milestone. Following initial restorations of the Talleyrand’s State Apartment rooms, the embassy invited representatives of the Marshall Plan’s participating nations and restoration sponsors to celebrate the opening of the George C. Marshall Center and its permanent exhibit, “The Marshall Plan: The Vision of a Family of Nations,” created by French and American historians and curators to memorialize the project that revitalized Europe after the devastation of World War II. The Talleyrand has an illustrious history dating from the 18th century and a no-less- illustrious list of inhabitants that included the building’s namesake today, Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord, and the Rothschild family, who made the Talleyrand their home until the German occupation of Paris. The “hôtel particulier” (private urban mansion) lived through an evolving history of changes, including its own salvation when only quick action by the Allied forces saved the Place de la Concorde and surrounding buildings from Hitler’s order to destroy Paris.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Memoir, Economic Cooperation, and Marshall Plan
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America