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1142. An Empirical Analysis of Failed Intelligence Reforms Before September 11
- Author:
- Amy B. Zegart
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- AMY B. ZEGART examines the failures to reform U.S. intelligence agencies before the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks. She finds that during the 1990s, intelligence officials and policy makers understood the rising terrorist threat and the urgent need for reform, but failed to address critical organizational deficiencies.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, National Security, Terrorism, Reform, and 9/11
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
1143. The U.S. Dollar and Prosperity: Accidents Waiting to Happen
- Author:
- Reuver Brenner
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Development in the rest of the world depends on the United States because America continues to be the engine of the world economy and the U.S. dollar is the main reserve currency. In this article, I examine the prospects of America remaining an economic superpower and the dollar maintaining its status as a reserve currency. I also show that unless the United States succeeds financial markets and development around the world will suffer. During the last decade, the U.S. dollar has experienced wide fluctuations. The dollar’s real effective exchange rate relative to the seven major currencies varied from about 80 in 1995 to 120 in 2001, and back to 90 in 2005 (BIS 2005: 91). The dollar was up roughly 30 percent relative to commodity prices between 1997 and 2001. Then, between 2002 and the end of 2004, the dollar fell by about 30 percent relative to gold and commodities. During the first 10 months of 2005, all hard currencies (except the Canadian and Australian dollar) were down by another 15 percent relative to gold. Nevertheless, the bond market still expects a stable dollar over the long haul, as reflected in long-term interest rates. The relative stability of the long-term interest rates offers comfort because the world depends on a predictable value of the dollar. The havoc its demise as reserve currency would provoke is hardly imaginable. The significant upward movement in the U.S. dollar during the late 1990s brought financial, political, and social havoc in countries that either pegged their currencies to the dollar or had currency boards, Argentina’s case being the most prominent. Later, the decline in the dollar between 2002 and 2004 has brought about much antagonism in trade relations around the world and cries for protectionism. Even with the dollar’s volatility around a downward trend since 2002, the euro did not displace the U.S. dollar as the world’s main reserve currency—and will not do so unless drastic events happen, which I do not foresee.1 One such drastic event would be an utter mismanagement of the U.S. dollar. Another would be the European Central Bank (ECB) announcing that it was moving toward targeting the price of gold to manage the euro. The ECB would then become a supranational monetary institution independent of all political pressures. Anchoring the euro to the price of gold would reflect changes in global demands for euro liquidity, functioning as a reserve currency. The reason I do not expect the euro to replace the U.S. dollar as the main reserve currency, unless either of these two events happens, is that the euro is the very first paper currency not backed either by a strong government or by gold. It is a unique experiment. For the euro to become a reserve currency, the eurozone would have to run persistent trade deficits, allowing surplus countries to build up their euro reserves. To achieve that outcome, however, the eurozone countries would have to radically reform their fiscal and regulatory policies, to encourage far more domestic entrepreneurship and consumption than they presently do. This scenario does not seem to be in the cards. Indeed, as Europe’s population gets older, meaningful reform becomes less likely, and I do not see any chance for a strong European government to emerge and tackle the situation. Aging baby boomers, who dominate Europe’s voters, prefer the status quo. In sum, the chances of the euro becoming a serious alternative to the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency are slim, or nonexistent. The Federal Reserve would have to seriously mishandle monetary affairs for this to happen.
- Topic:
- Currency, Economic Development, and Dollar
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
1144. Global Imbalances and Financial Reform with Examples from China
- Author:
- Raghuram G. Rajan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- I will focus on a familiar issue, the problem of global current account imbalances, and will describe how financial sector reform can help narrow them, using examples from China. The United States is running a current account deficit approaching 6.25 percent of its GDP and over 1.5 percent of world GDP. To help finance it, the United States pulls in 70 percent of all global capital flows. Clearly, such a large deficit is unsustainable in the long run. The current situation has its roots in a series of crises over the last decade that were caused by excessive investment, such as the Japanese asset bubble, the crises in emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, and most recently, the IT bubble. Investment has fallen off sharply since, with only very cautious recovery. This is particularly true of emerging Asia and Japan. The policy response to the slowdown in investment has differed across countries. In the industrial countries, accommodative policies such as expansionary budgets and low interest rates have led to consumption- or credit-fueled growth, particularly in Anglo-Saxon countries. Government savings have fallen, especially in the United States and Japan, and household savings have virtually disappeared in some countries with housing booms. By contrast, the crises were a wake-up call in a number of emerging market countries. Historically lax policies have been tightened, with some countries running primary fiscal surpluses for the first time, and most bringing down inflation through tight monetary policy. With corporations cautious, and governments abandoning the grandiose projects of the past, investment has fallen off. Instead, exports have led growth. Many emerging markets have run current account surpluses for the first time. In emerging Asia, a corollary has been a buildup of international reserves.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Reform, Finance, Economy, and Deficit
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1145. Independent Central Banks: New and Old
- Author:
- John H. Wood
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In the 1990s, several governments gave their central banks operational independence to pursue low inflation, and steps were taken to make the new monetary policy more credible by making it more transparent (Bernanke et al. 1999). The governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is subject to dismissal if inflation is outside the assigned range. In the United Kingdom, if inflation misses the target by more than 1 percentage point, the governor must explain publicly why the divergence occurred and what steps the Bank of England is taking to deal with it. The new transparency “facilitates public understanding of monetary policy and increases the incentives for the central bank to pursue the announced goals of monetary policy” (Svensson 1999: 631–32). Accountability is increased, indeed made possible, by the choice of a unique objective, which implies “a stronger commitment to a systematic and rational optimizing monetary policy than other monetary policy regimes” (p. 608).
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Central Bank
- Political Geography:
- England and United States of America
1146. Tobacco Control Programs and Tobacco Consumption
- Author:
- Michael L. Marlow
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) believe that adequate funding of tobacco control programs by all 50 states would reduce the number of adults who smoke by promoting quitting, preventing young people from ever starting, reducing exposure to secondhand smoke, and eliminating disparities in tobacco use among population groups. CDC has established guidelines for comprehensive tobacco control programs, including recommended funding levels, in Best Practices for Comprehensive Tobacco Control Programs (CDC 1999; hereafter called Best Practices). Recommendations are based on best practices in nine program elements: community programs to reduce tobacco use, chronic disease programs to reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases, school programs, enforcement, statewide programs, countermarketing, cessation programs, surveillance and evaluation, and administration and management. CDC recommends annual funding per capita to range from $7 to $20 in smaller states (population less than 3 million), $6–$17 in medium-sized states (population 3–7 million), and $5–$16 in larger states (population more than 7 million).
- Topic:
- Tobacco, Public Health, and Public Spending
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1147. Does “Starve the Beast” Work?
- Author:
- Jerry H. Tempelman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Starve-the-beast proponents believe that in order to tame the beast, one needs to starve it, with the beast being an obvious reference to Thomas Hobbes’s Leviathan depiction of an out-of-control state apparatus. The idea of tax reductions as a way to enforce discipline in government spending holds regardless of whether the nation is in the midst of an economic expansion or a recession. Following the recurrence of federal budget deficits that coincided with the enactment of federal tax cuts during 2001–2003, the starvethe-beast approach to fiscal policy that once was one of the underpinnings of the Reagan Revolution has become increasingly controversial. It is no longer mainly the political left that criticizes the starve-the-beast approach. Even some Republicans who once participated in the move to a smaller government during the Reagan presidency now criticize starve-the-beast thinking. Recently, William Niskanen (2005) has used statistical evidence to demonstrate that a decrease in taxes in a given year is followed by an increase in spending the next. Bruce Bartlett (2005) has proposed raising taxes, namely by introducing a value-added tax, presumably to prevent having to increase less efficient income taxes later.
- Topic:
- Budget, Economy, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1148. Limiting Government: The Failure of “Starve the Beast”
- Author:
- William A. Niskanen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- For nearly 30 years, many Republicans have argued that the most effective way to control federal government spending is to “starve the beast” by reducing federal tax revenues. Moreover, two Nobel laureate economists, Milton Friedman and Gary Becker, have endorsed this argument. Friedman (2003) summarized this perspective as follows: How can we ever cut government down to size? I believe there is one and only one way: the way parents control spendthrift children, cutting their allowance. For governments, this means cutting taxes. Resulting deficits will be an effective—I would go so far as to say, the only effective—restraint on the spending propensities of the executive branch and the legislature. The public reaction will make that restraint effective. Becker and his colleagues Ed Lazear and Kevin Murphy (2003) described this effect as “the double benefit of tax cuts.” (Lazear is the recently appointed chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.) This argument has been effective in unifying the Republican Party in favor of reducing federal taxes, but at the cost of undermining the more traditional Republican concern about fiscal responsibility.
- Topic:
- Government, Economy, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and Public Spending
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1149. U.S.-China Relations: The Case for Economic Liberalism
- Author:
- James A. Dorn
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In its 2005 Report to Congress, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission—also known as the U.S.-China Commission (USCC)—recommended that China appreciate its currency, the renminbi (RMB), “by at least 25 percent against the U.S. dollar” or face “an immediate, across-the-board tariff on Chinese imports.” The commission argued that such an action could be justified under Article XXI of the World Trade Organization (WTO), “which allows members to take necessary actions to protect their national security.” The key idea behind the commission’s protectionist policy stance is that “China’s undervalued currency has contributed to a loss of U.S. manufacturing, which is a national security concern” (USCC 2005: 14).
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Economy, Trade, and Liberalism
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1150. Treaty Compliance: Lessons from the Softwood Lumber Case
- Author:
- Jeff Colgan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The Canada-U.S. dispute over softwood lumber imports provides an important case in understanding issues of international bargaining and treaty compliance. Recent events in the dispute suggest that one of the leading theoretical accounts of treaty compliance does not offer an adequate explanation of state behavior. Policy makers should recognize the importance of cross-border ownership and industry interdependence for the implementation of, and compliance with, international trade agreements. The softwood lumber dispute adds credence to the perspective, often advocated by realists, that treaty compliance will only occur when it is in a nation’s material interests to do so.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Trade, Imports, and Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, and United States of America
1151. Do Mentoring and Induction Programs Have Greater Benefits for Teachers Who Lack Preservice Training?
- Author:
- Laura Duke, Adam Karson, and Justin Wheeler
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of mentoring and induction programs on teacher retention, as measured by teachers’ commitment to their profession. Using data from the 1999-2000 Schools and Staffi ng Survey, we perform logistic regression analyses to model the effect of induction and its different components on teacher commitment, and compare the marginal impact of induction programs on teachers with and without degrees in education. Our results show that teachers who have had mentors or gone through induction programs in their fi rst year of teaching are more likely to be committed to the teaching profession. Moreover, mentoring and induction programs have a greater marginal benefi t for teachers without education degrees than for those with education degrees. Based on our results, we recommend that districts (1) provide mentoring and induction programs for all teachers, and (2) allow school-level fl exibility in tailoring induction and mentoring programs.
- Topic:
- Education, Training, Teachers, and Mentorship
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1152. Uniting a City: Facilitating Interracial Interactions and Cultural Exchange in Urban Public Spaces, with Applications to Washington D.C.
- Author:
- Ginger M. Moored
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Racial segregation in American cities exacerbates racial tensions and spatially concentrates poverty. While government entities and other organizations use a number of techniques to mollify these problems such as mixed-income housing and school busing programs, these techniques often do not overcome everyday geographic separation, and, in turn, fail to promote physical interracial interactions or cultural exchange. One way to foster interracial interactions that lead to cultural exchange is to hold organized events in public spaces that are natural meeting-areas for cities’ residents. Studies about interracial interactions, though, suggest that to be successful these events should: (1) produce high levels of interaction, (2) provide opportunities for cultural exchange, (3) use engaging programming with broad appeal, (4) maximize accessibility of events, (5) minimize cultural intimidation, and (6) equally value all cultures. This paper devises strategies for creating events that have these six characteristics and illustrates these strategies using examples from U.S. cities. The latter part of this paper describes how these strategies can be specifi cally applied to Washington, D.C., a city sharply divided by race.
- Topic:
- Race, Culture, Urban, Cities, and Public Space
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1153. Complications of American Democracy: Elections Are Not Enough
- Author:
- Demetrios James Caraley
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- DEMETRIOS JAMES CARALEY discusses the major features critical to the working of our democratic institutions: free elections, separation of powers with checks and balances, and government limited by constitutional guarantees. He looks at some evidence that suggests our democracy may be shifting to an “elective despotism” of the majority—something that Jefferson declared “was not the government we fought for.”
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1154. Why the Bush Doctrine Cannot Be Sustained
- Author:
- Robert Jervis
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- ROBERT JERVIS argues that despite some successes, the Bush Doctrine cannot be sustained because it has many internal contradictions, requires more sustained domestic support than is possible, makes excessive demands on intelligence, places too much faith in democracy, and is overly ambitious. It will, however, be difficult to construct a replacement foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Intelligence, Democracy, and George W. Bush
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1155. What Political Institutions Does Large-Scale Democracy Require?
- Author:
- Robert A. Dahl
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- ROBERT A. DAHL examines the political institutions necessary for a democratic country. He argues that a large-scale democracy requires the following political institutions: elected officials; free, fair, and frequent elections; freedom of expression; alternative sources of information; associational autonomy; and inclusive citizenship.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Citizenship, Freedom of Expression, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
1156. The Implications of Leadership Change in the Arab World
- Author:
- Daniel Byman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- DANIEL L. BYMAN addresses how changes in leadership in the Arab world will affect the region’s politics and relationship to the United States. He pays particular attention to identifying which factors hinge upon individual leaders, which are related to particular regimes, and which are inherent to the interests of the state in question.
- Topic:
- Politics, Leadership, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and United States of America
1157. What Was the Cold War about? Evidence from Its Ending
- Author:
- John Mueller
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- JOHN MUELLER assesses the rhetoric and actions of important international actors and concludes that the Cold War essentially ended in the spring of 1989. This suggests that the Cold War was principally about an ideological conflict and not about the military, nuclear, or economic balance or about Communism as a form of government -issues that would be resolved later.
- Topic:
- Cold War, History, Conflict, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Soviet Union and United States of America
1158. A Case for Government-Sponsored Monitoring of Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis in the United States
- Author:
- Aaron D. Levine
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), a modified version of in vitro fertilization in which individual embryos are screened for specific genetic characteristics prior to implantation, provides a powerful way for parents suffering from infertility to increase their chances of having healthy children. In its various forms, PGD allows parents to screen for gender, providing a means for avoiding X-linked diseases, chromosomal abnormalities, such as translocations and aneuploidies, and single-gene disorders. Beyond these standard uses, PGD could potentially be used to select for any genetic trait, and this aspect of the technology has raised concerns that it may be used either intentionally or unintentionally for eugenic purposes. At present, reproductive medicine is only loosely regulated in the United States and new technologies, such as PGD, are almost entirely unregulated. This paper argues that given the lack of consensus regarding the ethical acceptability of PGD and embryo selection techniques, the government has an interest in gathering and reporting data on the use of PGD in the United States. Taking a proactive role now, rather than allowing the use of PGD to continue growing unscrutinized, will give society the chance to make thoughtful and deliberate decisions about its use.
- Topic:
- Government, Science and Technology, Medicine, Reproductive Health, and Genetics
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1159. Revisiting Goldwarter v. Carter: The Executive’s Right to Rescind Treaties in Light of President Bush’s 2002 Termination of the ABM Treaty
- Author:
- Howard A. Wachtel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the constitutional power of the President to terminate treaty obligations. It centers on President Bush’s recent renunciation of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with the Soviet Union. It focuses on the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches in light of the Goldwater v. Carter and Kucinich v. Bush decisions. The paper is divided into six sections: (1) the international legal ramifications of unilateral executive treaty rescission; (2) the role of standing; (3) the impact of the political question doctrine; (4) arguments for and against permitting the President to terminate treaties; (5) a discussion of the process that should be used to terminate treaties, as between the President and Congress; and, finally, (6) an examination of alternative strategies that Congress may employ when the President chooses to rescind a treaty. The paper concludes that the decision to terminate a treaty should not be one-sided, and that joint action from both branches should be required whenever the United States wishes to relieve itself of treaty obligations.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1160. Decision-Making in Endangered Species Management
- Author:
- Jonathan C. Borck
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines decisions made by the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), part of the U.S. Department of the Interior, to protect species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and to fund their recovery. Using a data set that includes scientific, economic, and political variables on vertebrates from 1989 to 1997, this paper estimates a variety of regression models of the listing and funding decisions. Although required by law to consider only scientific factors such as species’ vulnerability in its decision-making, FWS appears instead to favor visceral characteristics, such as species’ taxonomic class and size. Both criteria are defensible. Nonetheless, the paper recommends that FWS and its partner agencies acknowledge and try to resolve the inconsistencies between their legal obligations and their actual behavior to ensure more effective implementation of this important piece of environmental legislation.
- Topic:
- Environment, Legislation, Animals, Decision-Making, Biodiversity, and Endangered Species
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America