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81. More Than Miscommunication: Rethinking Interpretation at the Asylum Office

Author:
Hillary Mellinger
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
The United States requires asylum applicants to provide their own interpreters for their interviews at the Asylum Office, barring exceptional circumstances. Applicants can face significant hurdles in finding suitable interpreters, who play a critical role in giving them a voice in the asylum process. Inaccurate interpretation can have serious ramifications such as denial of an applicant’s asylum claim. Despite the critical need for meaningful language access in the asylum process, interpretation at the Asylum Office remains understudied. This article represents a first attempt at bringing the scholarly and practitioner communities together to rethink interpretation at the Asylum Office, with the goal of identifying feasible steps that the Asylum Office can take to enhance language access. This article proposes the below five holistic policy recommendations to improve interpretation at the Asylum Office, based on data from 28 interviews with attorneys who practiced before either the Arlington or Houston Asylum Offices, as well as the authors’ own prior professional experiences advocating on behalf of asylum seekers. 1. Government provision of telephonic interpreters. 2. Advance notice when a bilingual asylum officer can conduct an asylum interview in a language other than English. 3. Additional institutional support for asylum officers including lunch breaks. 4. Improved data collection regarding interpretation. 5. Additional research including analysis of how the COVID-19 pandemic affected interpretation at the Asylum Office. These recommendations are a starting point to improving language access at the Asylum Office. With this article, the authors hope to spark future research and conversations to ensure that individuals with limited English proficiency have meaningful access to asylum interviews.
Topic:
Immigration, Asylum, Interpretation, Lawyers, and Language Access
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

82. The Undocumented Population in the United States Increased to 12.2 Million in 2023

Author:
Robert Warren
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
In 2023, the US undocumented population reached 12.2 million, exceeding the previous high of 12.0 million in 2008. This report provides estimates of the undocumented population in 2023 based on data collected in the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). The report focuses on trends in annual population growth from 2013 to 2023 for the total population and for 17 countries or areas of origin. It also describes trends in the undocumented population in the six states with the largest undocumented population in 2023. The CMS estimates of undocumented residents include immigrants in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and Temporary Protected Status (TPS) programs, and the estimates include most of the people that have entered asylum backlogs or received humanitarian parole status since 2021. The estimates were derived using previous CMS estimation procedures except that higher undercount rates were used to estimate the number of undocumented residents that arrived after 2020. Adjustment for undercount was increased for post-2020 arrivals to account for the unusually large flow across the US/Mexico border in recent years and because relatively more migrants resided in group quarters1 where enumeration can be difficult. The CMS methodology is summarized after the following section, and information about undercount rates for recent arrivals is shown in the Appendix.
Topic:
Demographics, Migration, Immigration, and Undocumented Population
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

83. Fear as a Group Emotion in Mixed-Status Immigrant Ecuadorian Community in Queens, New York

Author:
Halyna Lemekh
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
This study foregrounds fear as a group emotion shared by members of the Ecuadorian immigrant community in Queens, New York. The study is based on 30 in-depth interviews collected through ethnographic fieldwork in an Ecuadorian enclave in 2022–2023. It illuminates how fear, as a group emotion, instilled by “illegality,” is experienced by first-generation, 1.5-generation, and second-generation immigrants. Group fear experienced by members of the mixed-status immigrant community stems from collective and cumulative fear. This study defines collective fear as an emotion prevailing in mixed-status immigrant communities because of vulnerability from their undocumented status and marginalization passed on to members through socialization. Collective fear affects group dynamics and intergroup interactions, with debilitating effects on its members; however, it has positive functions, cementing social bonds between immigrants and solidifying the community. Another aspect of group fear is cumulative fear, defined in this study as the totality of fears experienced by first-generation, 1.5-generation, and second-generation Ecuadorian immigrants. First-generation immigrants express fear of border crossing, fear of detention and deportation, and fear of uncertainty during the legalization process. Meanwhile, 1.5-generation immigrants convey retrospective fear of crossing the border, fear of detention and deportation, fear of uncertainty during the legalization process, fear of liminal status restrictions, and fear of termination of the temporary protective status granted to Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals recipients. Second-generation immigrants, as jus-soli citizens of the United States, report fear of family separation and sympathy toward undocumented community members. Collective fear disseminated through numerous in-group (among community members) and inter-group interactions (community members and interior immigration enforcement) and learned through socialization provides empirical evidence of the “top–down” influence of group members’ experiences on emotions. Conversely, cumulative fear is based on individuals’ immigrant experiences cohering through the “bottom–up” influence of shared emotion on group formation. The only way to eradicate this group fear is to adjust one’s undocumented status, leading former undocumented immigrants to feel guilty about their acquired freedom, as their family members may still live in the shadow of “illegality.” This study demonstrates that U.S. President Joe Biden’s executive order aimed at keeping American families together cannot eliminate the overall paralyzing fear in immigrant communities. Given that the policy will affect an insignificant number of people, drastic measures are needed. The following policy recommendations are offered: • Allow non-citizen spouses and children to adjust their unresolved immigrant status unconditionally (removing the requirement of residence in the U.S. for 10 years or more). • Grant all recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program legal permanent resident status as a pathway to U.S. citizenship. • Allow all liminally legal 1.5-generation immigrants to pursue education and careers through legalization. • Forbid deportation of U.S. citizens’ parents, forgive most undocumented immigrants’ unauthorized entry into the country, and allow them to adjust their status.
Topic:
Immigrants, Fear, Undocumented Population, Amnesty, and Group Emotion
Political Geography:
New York, North America, Ecuador, United States of America, and Queens

84. Virtuality for Real Children: Unaccompanied Minors and US Immigration Custody

Author:
Kif Augustine-Adams, Hayley Pierce, Melissa Alcaraz, and Jhandra Melissa Díaz López
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
In the United States, federal law charges the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) with responsibility for the custody and care of unaccompanied migrant children. Since April 2021, more than 1,250 child migrants have experienced what ORR terms a “Virtual” program placement while in its custody. ORR has not: explained what its use of virtuality means for the children in its care, defined Virtual as a program placement type, set forth parameters for its use, or published the criteria by which it selects children for virtual rather than physical placement. Using administrative data, an online video meeting with ORR personnel, and ORR manuals and documents, this article conceptualizes ORR’s use of virtuality as a bifurcation of a child’s custody: ORR takes technical legal custody but not physical custody of the child. The article recognizes risks this bifurcation poses to the physical well-being of unaccompanied children and how bifurcation complicates ORR’s compliance with minimum legal standards set by federal law. The article likewise identifies benefits some children have received from virtual placement: quick release from ORR custody; the opportunity to remain with accompanying non-parental adults, such as siblings and grandparents, rather than enduring separation from them, as is standard practice in US immigration detention; and privileged entry into the US independent of standard legal authorization procedures. The article urges ORR and other US government entities to account for the risks and benefits virtuality poses to the well-being of unaccompanied migrant children.
Topic:
Migrants, Unaccompanied Children, Immigration Detention, and Virtual
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

85. Reauthorizing the Defense Production Act in the Era of Defense Mobilization and Supply-side Industrial Policy

Author:
Michael Hikari Cecire
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The 1950 Defense Production Act (DPA) is one of the most significant tools the U.S. government uses to mobilize the civilian economy for national defense. As the United States approaches the DPA’s statutory termination and likely reauthorization in 2025, this article surveys its recent employment during the COVID-19 pandemic and potential for policy iteration, assessing its evolution from postwar and early Cold War origins to a broader industrial policy tool. By analyzing DPA usage, legislative actions, and public interest trends, this study aims to extract key lessons from its recent implementation. The article argues that while the DPA has become increasingly central to the government’s industrial policy initiatives, its application has been broadly inconsistent, unevenly coordinated, and insufficiently integrated into broader strategic frameworks. Reauthorization of the DPA could include creating a more permanent and coordinated executive branch infrastructure, clarifying its use as an emergency versus routine policy tool, and identifying gaps in future deployment.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, COVID-19, Defense Production Act (DPA), and Reauthorization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

86. The Winds of Change: How China's Focus on Rare Earth Minerals Reshapes the World

Author:
Ian Murphy and Kevin Johnston
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
This article examines how rare earth minerals and the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) strategic dominance in the global economy affect U.S. national security. The PRC’s near monopoly on rare earth processing and its use of export controls as leverage pose significant risks to global supply chains and U.S. national security interests. This analysis explores contemporary PRC strategies in the rare earth sector and their implications for U.S. national security by explaining how the PRC’s view of international cooperation differs from the United States’ view. In essence, the PRC is using the transition to renewable energy to pursue its broader security goals and enhance its position in the global power hierarchy. Furthermore, the article offers policy recommendations aimed at mitigating vulnerabilities and ensuring the secure and sustainable supply of resources critical to U.S. interests.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, Rare earth elements (REEs), Critical Minerals, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

87. Recent U.S. Government Policy Literature on Critical and Strategic Minerals

Author:
Bert Chapman
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
Critical and strategic minerals have become increasingly important in U.S. government civilian and military policymaking in recent years. This is demonstrated by the heavy use of such minerals in many critical civilian and military infrastructures. This work will discuss how this subject has been addressed in laws, presidential documents, and works by government agencies along with congressional oversight committees and support agencies. It will stress how the United States is heavily dependent on strategic minerals from adversarial foreign countries such as China and will examine U.S. efforts to increase its ability to produce such materials in the United States by reforming permitting processes. It will conclude with recommendations for the United States to enhance its ability to produce these materials domestically and acquire them from reliable foreign sources. The conclusion will also suggest ways that the president and federal agency stakeholders can enhance public awareness of this problem and their efforts to rectify it.
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Supply Chains, Information, Critical Minerals, and Permitting
Political Geography:
China, North America, and United States of America

88. NATO's Long Cold Front:​ Why NATO Must Reorganize Its Approach to Defending the European High North

Author:
Ryan R. Duffy, Jahara Matisek, Jeremy M. McKenzie, and Chad M. Pillai
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces strategic vulnerabilities in the European high north due to growing Russian and Chinese collaboration. Leveraging scenario planning and enhanced integration of Nordic capabilities into Joint Force Command Norfolk is recommended to bolster Arctic deterrence. Clarified command structures, specialized polar-warfare units, targeted infrastructure investments, and expanded Joint exercises are essential. This would strengthen NATO’s Arctic posture, ensuring regional stability and enabling the U.S. strategic pivot toward countering China’s growing global influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:
NATO, Armed Forces, Deterrence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, Arctic, and United States of America

89. The Role of Artificial Intelligence in the U.S. Military Strategy in Proxy Wars, 2020–2024

Author:
Ehsan Ejazi and Mahsa Ahmadyan
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
Proxy war has been a dynamic U.S. military strategy since the Cold War. In recent decades, however, artificial intelligence (AI) as a new manifestation of technology has played a significant role in these wars. The United States has been a pioneer in this field, making substantial investments, annually allocates multibillion-dollar budgets to advance robotic and automated weapons to win future wars. Artificial intelligence proxy wars can manage the competition between international actors as a mediating factor without wasting human resources. The main question of this article is as follows: What is the role of artificial intelligence in U.S. military strategy, and how much can this new technology help win proxy wars? The findings indicate that the United States, by applying artificial intelligence technology to its military equipment with remote control capabilities, robots, and automated guided weapons, has reduced human and financial costs while increasing the probability of triumph on the battlefield. However, the obtained data, according to moral and humanitarian criteria, suggest a high rate of civilian casualties in such military conflicts.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

90. Synthesizing Strategic Frameworks for Great Power Competition

Author:
Gavin Holtz
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
This article examines the theoretical foundations necessary for conceptualizing and operationalizing modern great power competition through the innovative synthesis of three influential military frameworks: Colonel John R. Boyd’s observe, orient, decide, act (OODA) loop, Colonel John A. Warden’s systems analysis, and Chinese colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui’s unrestricted warfare theory. The research demonstrates how complementary frameworks provide strategic practitioners with comprehensive capabilities for identifying systemic vulnerabilities, orchestrating cross-domain effects, and maintaining decisive advantage through superior decision-making processes. The analysis reveals how modern competition transcends traditional military boundaries, necessitating organizational architectures capable of implementing synchronized operations across multiple competitive domains. This theoretical synthesis supports the proposal for an Interagency Action Committee on China (IAC-C) and identifies the foundational principles of a cross-domain organizational framework.
Topic:
Gray Zone, Strategic Competition, Warfare, Great Powers, and Systems Analysis
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and United States of America

91. Strategic Implications of Emerging Weapon Technologies: Kinetic Bombardment, Antimatter, and Antigravity Technology for U.S. National Security

Author:
Ahsan Uddin
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
This article explores the strategic implications of emerging weapon technologies on U.S. national security, focusing specifically on antimatter, kinetic bombardment systems, and antigravity technology. As global military dynamics evolve, it is imperative for the United States to assess and perhaps integrate these emerging technologies to maintain its military superiority. This article examines the accuracy and destructive capability of kinetic bombardment, the immense energy potential of antimatter, and the groundbreaking applications of antigravity propulsion in aerial operations. The findings underscore the critical role that these technologies may play in improving U.S. national security and provide a foundation for additional research on their national security applications and implications.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, Weapons, Research and Development, and Military
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

92. The Arctic as a Periphery in U.S.-China Competition​

Author:
Charlotte Hulme
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
While China’s Arctic inroads have attracted growing attention from the United States, this article views Arctic competition as a periphery of global great power competition, or as a sideshow to the main theater of U.S.-China competition—the Indo-Pacific. Examining China’s Arctic activity from a peripheral perspective, it ultimately argues that the United States should sustain its current posture of not letting a nonpriority theater become a main event in its competition with China.
Topic:
Strategic Competition, Periphery, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

93. The Hegemonic Transition in Latin America: To What Extent is China Challenging US’s Hegemony?

Author:
Andoni Maiza-Larrarte and Ricardo Bustillo-Mesanza
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the geopolitical consequences of China’s enhanced engagement in Latin America. China is increasing its economic weight among Latin American countries, reinforcing its external image to counter the perception that the US is a unique relevant ally. In previous research, some authors have supported the idea that China could become a sort of neocolonial power in Latin America, substituting the hegemony of the United States. In this article, we carry out an in-depth review of Western literature and a comprehensive analysis of the bilateral relationship to discuss China’s role in the region. We apply the principles of the hegemonic stability and the power transition theories, and we also include an assessment of “soft power” components. We conclude that China is eroding US power in Latin America but is still far from becoming the new regional hegemon.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Transition, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Latin America, and United States of America

94. Is Liberalism as an Ideological Assumption Over?

Author:
Marlène Laruelle
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Much ink has been spilled debating the implications of the results of the U.S. November 2024 elections. In Europe, following the June 2024 elections, more than 40 far-right parties hold seats in the European Parliament, a growth from 25 the previous term. The far right also managed to increase its vote share in nine out of the 13 European states that held legislative elections in 2024.1 Compared to a decade ago, analysts understand that these events are not exceptional mo- ments, glitches in the system, or accidents of history. Nonetheless, many still prioritize short-term explanations such as, in the United States’ case, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ weak campaign performance, high levels of inflation, and unprecedented influxes of irregular migration. Others attribute far-right victories to either morally unacceptable sentiments such as racism and xenophobia or brainwashing via fake news and social media propaganda—whether through X (in the United States’ case and in Germany’s February 2025 elections)2 or TikTok (as in Romania’s first round of presidential elections).3 In both cases, these explanations provide moral reassurance: only citizens with bad intentions, victims of propaganda, or those unable to appreciate lib- eralism’s idealistic goals could vote for the far right. However, these arguments are insufficient in understanding the wave of rejection that societal order seems to be arousing amongst citizens. If one thinks that Donald Trump won only because his voters are systemic racists or susceptible to fake news, then one does not see that he may have won because his political program spoke to a multiracial coalition of blue-collar and white-collar voters and resonated with a growing number of Hispanics and young African American men.4 Our interpretation of Trump’s victory impacts the search for solutions: in the first scenario, the Democrats are not held responsible for their defeat; in the second, they must engage in a deep rethinking of their political platform. Far-right electoral gains are no accidents of history. Illiberal leaders and parties have expanded electorally worldwide in many countries beyond the United States and Europe in varying cultural contexts, such as in Turkey, India, the Philippines, and El Salvador. This suggests that the explanation for their success must be found in structural transformations of our socioeconomic and political landscape, not in one-off sets of issues or grievances. To truly understand the rise of illiberalism, citizens and activists anxious to defend liberal demo- cratic principles must analyze these broader systemic evolutions be- fore discussing what they mean for our vision of liberalism. They should grasp why these systemic challenges have so far been more successfully addressed, electorally speaking, by the right than by the left. The main argument of this paper is that liberalism’s cultural hegemony is over, and those defending liberal principles must recognize that they are now in genuine competition with other political ideologies. To this end, they must abandon the notion that liberalism represents “common sense,” while its op- ponents embody “nonsense.” Ironically, this very contrast is mirrored by illiberal voters, who see their recent electoral success as a return to politics grounded in reality and opposing liberal “wokeness.”
Topic:
Politics, Culture, Elections, Ideology, Voting, and Liberalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

95. Global Public Opinion and the Growth of Right-Wing Populism

Author:
Richard Wike
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The “super year” of elections in 2024 was unprecedented in voting history, with citizens in more than 60 countries going to the polls. While it was generally a difficult year for incumbents, it was a strong one for challengers, including several from the populist right. Leveraging economic frustrations, divisive cultural issues, and anger at a political class perceived to be out of touch with ordinary citizens, right-wing populist leaders and parties made gains at the ballot box in several nations, building on the growing success they have seen in recent years.1 One of the most high-profile results in 2024 was Republican Donald Trump’s defeat of Democrat Kamala Harris in the United States presidential election, which returned the leader of the populist “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement to the White House after four years of Demo- cratic control. Right-wing populists also gained ground in European parlia- mentary elections. Austria’s Freedom Party, for example, had its best election result ever. The Alternative for Germany Party became the first far-right political party to win a state election in the country since World War II. And even though the cordon sanitaire—a bargain among political parties to keep the far right out of governing coalitions—ultimately kept Marine Le Pen’s National Rally out of power in France, the party nonetheless increased the number of seats it holds in the National Assembly. Parties on the right did well outside Europe and the United States too. For example, El Salvador’s incumbent President Nayib Bukele won reelection with over 80 percent of the vote, buoyed by strong support for his crackdown on criminal gangs. In Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto won the presidential election amid public concerns about his human rights record. And—though forced to form a coalition government for the first time—Indian Prime Min- ister Narendra Modi won a third consecutive victory, and his Bharatiya Janata Party, which captured 240 of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, remains a dominant force in the country’s politics.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, Populism, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
India, Global Focus, and United States of America

96. The new power model and United States national defence agility

Author:
Stephen Willis
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This scholarly article provides a comprehensive analysis of how Heimans and Timms’s (Heimans, J. and Timms, H. (2018) New power: How power works in our hyperconnected world—and how to make it work for you. New York, NY: Doubleday) principles of “new power” can be applied to enhance the agility and effectiveness of United States national defence strategies and policies. The analysis underscores the critical importance of fostering collective intelligence, adaptability, flexibility, transparency, and inclusion within the operations and decision-making processes of the US military, emphasising transparency and inclusion is crucial in promoting open source and open information exchange that involves service members and defence leaders at all levels in decision-making. This study presents compelling examples of how embracing new power dynamics can improve the agility of US national security efforts in terms of strategies and policies. Improved agility will potentially save lives and provide a competitive advantage over our adversaries. Additionally, the article highlights the significance of adaptability and flexibility in navigating the rapidly changing global landscape, underscoring the need for the US military to adapt to shifting power dynamics and embrace agility as a critical element in achieving success in the face of modern security challenges. Finally, this research delves into two critical areas: First, we explore a new power model for enhancing the agility of US national defence. Second, we discuss how the new power model can facilitate agile decisionmaking for US intelligence, specifically through the practice of open-source Intelligence. We conclude that making American national defence agile in its policies and strategies requires not only the application of new power principles and concepts, as Heimans and Timms (2018) understand them, but also the ability to apply new power in nuanced, incremental, and thoughtful ways that will allow for transformation of the defence and policy-making apparatus in a way that will be accepted and understood by policymakers and service members and leaders themselves.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Intelligence, International Security, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

97. Purple Rain: Temperamental Politics and Budgets in Arizona

Author:
Max Goshert, Janica Murphy, Samira Amin, Mo Abouelenin, and Amber Chisholm
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Arizona’s evolving political landscape has become a key factor in its fiscal outlook. Once a solid Republican stronghold, the state has shifted to swing status, as seen in President Joe Biden's narrow 0.3% margin win in the 2020 election and a closely divided state legislature. Strong economic growth in prior years led to FY23 General Fund revenues being revised upwards from $15.9 billion to $17.9 billion. Despite this, declining tax revenues and increased spending, particularly on a universal school voucher program, created a projected $1.71 billion deficit for FY25. The state's Republican-led legislature implemented a 2.5% flat income tax and expanded school vouchers, significantly impacting revenue. To address the deficit, the FY25 budget, finalized at $16.8 billion, included cuts to many programs, most notably a $430 million reduction in the Arizona Water Infrastructure and Financing Authority. The political status quo remained consistent after the 2024 election, where Republicans won a marginal gain in both chambers of the state legislature, Democrats kept control of the U.S. Senate seat up for reelection, and the U.S. House seats remained at 6–3 for Republicans and Democrats, respectively. This report examines the fiscal trajectory, proposed tax policy changes, and political state driving Arizona’s FY25 budget negotiations.
Topic:
Politics, Budget, Fiscal Policy, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Arizona, and United States of America

98. Oregon’s 2024 Legislative Session and Budget: From Incivility to Civility

Author:
Brent S. Steel and Emily Mooney
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The 2024 Oregon legislative session, spanning a concise 35-day period, marked a return to bipartisan collaboration resulting in significant policy advancements. Major reforms enacted include the implementation of campaign finance limits, modifications to drug decriminalization policies, and the introduction of a substantial housing initiative by Governor Tina Kotek. These actions stand in contrast to the previous year's divisive Republican walkout, which had halted legislative proceedings in protest against proposed bills on gun control, education, and climate change. This walkout led to a new ballot measure that penalized unexcused absences among legislators, threatening the ability of boycotting members to run for re-election. Despite the prior tensions, the 2024 session was distinguished by cooperation, as evidenced by both parties acknowledging its historic success in achieving policy goals. The budget passed on June 25, 2023, outlined a total of $121.264 billion for the 2023-25 period, reflecting a decrease from the previous budget due to a reduction in Federal Funds, counterbalanced by an increase in the General Fund and Lottery Funds. Detailed resource allocations were influenced by the May 2023 revenue forecast, with specific adjustments made during the 2024 session to align with the biennium's objectives.
Topic:
Reform, Budget, Public Policy, Polarization, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Oregon

99. The 2023 Nevada Budget: Record Surpluses, Cautious Optimism, and Bipartisan Support for K-12 Education and State Employees

Author:
Brad Johnson and David Damore
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In June of 2023, the Nevada Legislature passed the state’s 2023-2025 budget. Buoyed by continued increases in the state’s share of the sales taxes and revenue tied to gaming, entertainment, and tourism as well as business activity, the $10.9 billion general fund budget was the largest in Nevada’s history. After four years of unified Democratic control of state government, the 2023 session was the first budget passed under divided government since 2017. While partisan and interbranch tensions were ever present as evidenced by a record 75 vetoed bills, Nevada’s Republican governor and Democratic-controlled legislature supported substantial investments in K-12 education and state employees. Enthusiasm for long-term spending obligations, however, was tempered by the fact that the general fund budget’s two largest revenue drivers—sales and gaming taxes—fluctuate with macroeconomic conditions. The continued reliance on these revenue sources perpetuates Nevada’s history of booms and busts and undermines the state’s ability to make long-term investments in its human capital and physical infrastructure. Consequently, the budget choices adopted by the governor and legislature reflected broad compromises and investments, while other areas, including costly but much needed reforms to state government, went unaddressed.
Topic:
Education, Government, Budget, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Nevada

100. The Long Shadow of the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights: Colorado's 2024-2025 Budget and Economy

Author:
Michael Berry
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In one of the most polarized legislatures in the United States, partisan and ideological divisions among Colorado lawmakers often overlap with differences in identity and experience. Although the chasm between Democrats and Republicans on salient social and economic issues is wide, bipartisan policymaking still occurs. Democratic successes in 2022 extended their streak to four consecutive election cycles of remaining even or gaining seats in both the Colorado House and Senate. Unified government with expanded majorities has allowed Democrats to advance their agenda through the state budget with relative ease, and seldom used parliamentary tactics helped bring about liberal policy change in contentious issue areas including gun control. In budgetary politics, the fiscal constraints of the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR) currently do more to impede the progressive agenda than dwindling opposition votes from minority party Republicans. Statewide ballot measures have also driven policy change, at times in conservative directions, on consequential tax and fiscal policy issues. Coloradans have demonstrated an openness to government reform in some areas, but less so when it comes to ballot measures affecting TABOR.
Topic:
Budget, Economy, Tax Systems, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Colorado, and United States of America