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101. Military coup in Niger: The legacies of colonialism and the US War on Terror in West Africa

Author:
Christopher Zambakari
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Niger is nearly 500 000 square miles of landlocked country bordered by no less than seven neighbouring states. It is a country saddled with a history of military interventions. However, most recently, under the leadership of President Mohamed Bazoum, it has been regarded as a ‘model of stability’ and ‘model of democracy’ in a region marred by political instability.1 Bazoum’s election in 2021 and the subsequent peaceful transition of power raised expectations of democratic rule and a renewed commitment to good governance. However, the military coup shattered those prospects and exposed the fragility of democracy in West Africa. In the current political upheaval, the key players include not just the domestic military forces, but also international powers. A legacy of French colonialism and the US Global War on Terror looms large over the region, casting its shadow on a complex narrative.2 However, the militarised ambitions of both regional and global actors prevail in West Africa and Niger again is caught in the crosshairs. As one considers the nuances of the situation, two compelling questions emerge: How has the militarisation of West Africa, explored through the lens of the War on Terror, set the stage for the recent coup in Niger, and what does this upheaval signify for the future of the region?3 Amidst the shifts in power, a closer examination of conflict connections and motivations reveals hidden agendas, geopolitical strategic moves, and the struggle for control in Niger.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Colonialism, War on Terror, Coup, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa, Niger, and United States of America

102. Pursuing peace and reconciliation in a post-atrocity society: A case study of transitional justice in Burundi

Author:
Isidore Nsengiyumva
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In recent memory, no single year has catapulted Burundi into the spotlight more than the 20151 events when demonstrators and mass protesters took to the streets to protest the third term of then-President Pierre Nkurunziza. In the heat of the violent protests, some senior military officials, along with the police attempted a coup on 13 May 2015. Many in the international community and peacebuilding world feared a full-out civil war and a resurgence in sustained acts of violence that would plunge the country into chaos. They raised concerns that these events would seriously affect the peace gains obtained through the use of hard security approaches, such as the involvement of successive African Union (AU) and United Nations (UN) peacekeeping forces, and soft security approaches, such as reforming the security sector and pursuing lasting peace and reconciliation. Despite a political malaise in the aftermath of 2015, the dire predictions for Burundi did not come to pass. Fast forward to 2023, Burundi is charting a new path for lasting peace through truth-telling, reconciliation and transitional justice following cyclic violent conflicts that have victimised thousands of Burundians. The ongoing peace and reconciliation processes in Burundi have garnered little attention from researchers. Modelled after the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), the Burundi Government instituted a National Truth and Reconciliation Commission (NTRC) in 2014 by presidential decree. Since 2021, the NTRC has carried out investigations into human rights violations committed between 1972 and 1973 and other events surrounding arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings, assassinations, and unlawful trials from the 1960s up to 1971.2 In addition to the investigations on the 1960s and early 1970s, the NTRC has the general mandate to investigate all gross human rights violations and war crimes perpetrated between 26 February 1985 and 4 December 2008. The Commission is further tasked with establishing both individual and collective responsibility by ordinary citizens and state actors in mass atrocity events. The creation of the NTRC was met with reservation and mixed views from some in the media and political circles in Burundi who feared the Commission would serve the interests of the ruling political elite and not necessarily lead to truth that unites and reconciles. Due to the political crisis in 2015, the programme of the NTRC was temporarily put to a halt and resumed with sustained momentum in 2018. Ever since, the NTRC has been conducting numerous field trips across the country to uncover the truth and aid individuals and communities alike in healing from the deep wounds of the past. The NTRC was tasked with shedding light on pre-colonial and post-colonial events of political violence and how the successive events have contributed to contemporary socio-political dynamics in Burundi.
Topic:
Transitional Justice, Youth, Peace, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

103. Mutiny as dialogue: Interrogating the rank-and-file complaints and revolt in the Nigerian counter-insurgency campaign

Author:
Patrick Afamefune Ikem
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
For over a decade, the Nigerian State has been confronting the ravaging insurgency perpetrated by Boko Haram and its splinter group, the Islamic State of West African Province (ISWAP), which has been responsible for about 350 000 deaths, and the displacement of over 2.3 million people.1 It is estimated that over 15 million people have been affected by the insurgency and counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in North-East Nigeria.2 The activities of these groups, coupled with the recent armed banditry, have triggered one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world.3 Unfortunately, the police mandated to handle internal security have, since the commencement of the insurgency, been overstretched and overwhelmed due to poor training and inadequate funding. Because of the combined effects of the Boko Haram insurgency, banditry, kidnappings, separatist agitations, ethno-religious conflicts, and the farmer-herder crisis, the Nigerian military has been drafted to play a frontline role in quelling the multifarious security crises in the country. This situation, among others, has largely marked the overwhelming engagement of the Nigerian army in internal security operations. However, some analysts and scholars have posited the danger of an expansive role of the military in the ongoing fight against counterinsurgency, claiming that it may threaten civil-military relations.4 Recently, Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Lucky Irabor, stated that 80% of the country’s armed forces are presently engaged in internal security operations in all 36 states of the federation. This suggests, as several analysts have highlighted, that the Nigerian military has essentially taken over internal security, which is largely within the purview of police service.5
Topic:
Counterinsurgency, Boko Haram, Dialogue, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

104. Climate Change and Natural Resource Conflict in ECOWAS and ECCAS Regions: Implications for State Security Forces

Author:
Freedom Onuoha, Oluwole Ojewale, and Joseph Chukwunonso Akogwu
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Climate change has emerged as the imminent threat to national security in many regions of the world. Nowhere is this reality more acute than in West and Central Africa where surging population growth, rising urbanisation, persistent environmental degradation, emergence of violent extremist organisations and weak state capacity have created a perfect storm of insecurity. It is against this backdrop that this article examines the nexus and dynamics of climate change and natural resource conflicts in ECOWAS and ECCAS regions, with a view to highlighting its security implications. This study notes that climate change contributes to increased conflict, but along indirect pathways. Across the two regions, climate change is experienced through rising temperatures, droughts and destructive floods, which greatly undermine people’s well-being and compound the fragility of states. This calls for the capacitation of state security forces through orientation and training that foster good understanding of the complex relationship between climate change, peace and security. The study concludes by offering strategic recommendations and policy directions to effectively tackle the climate change and natural resource conflict challenges in the contiguous regions.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, Conflict, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

105. Building Peace from the Grassroots with Informal Peace Infrastructures: Experience from Ojoo Community, Ibadan, Nigeria

Author:
Oseremen Felix Irene
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
One of the greatest resources for promoting peacebuilding and sustaining peace in the long term is always rooted in people and their culture. Bearing this in mind is a major step towards addressing domestic violence, intimate partner violence, disputes over land ownership and challenges associated with weak social cohesion that plague Ibadan, Nigeria. This study explores the contributions of informal peace committees (IPCs) as informal peace infrastructures (IPIs) in responding to the menace and powering peacebuilding from below in the local setting of Ojoo, Ibadan, where the study was conducted. The qualitative study adopts participatory action research design. It uses purposive sampling techniques and sourced primary data from individual interviews, focus group discussions, observation and diarising. Twenty respondents were interviewed and three focus group discussions were conducted for the study with a view to collecting primary data. Although IPIs also have their own weaknesses, the study revealed that local peace infrastructures, such as IPCs are resourceful and effective in addressing multiple threats, including domestic and intimate partner violence, disputes over land ownership, weak social cohesion and building peace from below. The study further revealed that IPCs can be sustainable if established through collaborative efforts in the affected community at a grassroots level with a sense of shared ownership, feelings of inclusiveness and project legitimacy.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Peacebuilding, and Grassroots Organizing
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

106. Regionalism and the Fight Against Terrorism in Southern Africa: Reflections on Cabo Delgado in Mozambique

Author:
Alexander Madanha Rusero and Kudzai Arnold Maisiri
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Post-independence Africa has often depicted Southern Africa as a formidable region spared by the calamities of Islamic insurgencies and terrorism. However, unfolding events in the last five years have demonstrated the limitation of SADC to terrorism exceptionalism. A combination of relatively weak states perpetuating poor regionalism, ethnic and religious diversity, poverty and the existence of the ‘ungoverned space’ are possible explanations in making the region a suitable habitat for insurgency groups. The recent invasion by terrorists of Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique has been a critical cause for concern for the stability of the region. The military intervention of the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) and Rwanda presents an opportunity for academics to explore regional prospects for peace and security. This paper uses insights gained from a qualitative study on terrorism, counterterrorism and regionalism to investigate the concept of regional security cooperation in the SADC region and the authenticity of institutional responses in Northern Mozambique. The study concludes that the launch of the SAMIM, despite several obstacles, represents a step in the right direction. More so, creating durable security institutions is the starting point towards realising meaningful regional security cooperation, which guarantees feasible regional economic integration.
Topic:
Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgado

107. The Role of the Judiciary in the Resolution of Intra-Party Conflicts in Lesotho

Author:
Mamello Rakolobe and Hoolo 'Nyane
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Political parties play an integral role in modern democracies and are legitimate platforms of contestation for state power. Despite the vital role that political parties play in democratisation, they are often prone to internal disputes. Their internal processes, such as conferences, elections, decision-making and deployments, are often subject to contestation. Conflicts are inherent in political contestation in general and in political parties, in particular. Hence, political parties have several mechanisms for dispute resolution, one of which is the referral of disputes to the courts of law. The role of the courts in internal political party disputes is a double-edged sword. While a court provides an independent platform for resolving disputes, it lacks reconciliatory attributes. After court intervention, many political parties often break up into smaller parties or experience major defections. This phenomenon is more pronounced in Lesotho than elsewhere. Ever since the return to electoral democracy in 1993, the role of the courts in internal party disputes has increased phenomenally. However, instead of achieving cohesion and internal stability, political parties have experienced splits, exacerbated conflicts or significant defections after the referral of their internal disputes to the courts. This raises the question of whether the courts are the appropriate mechanism for resolving internal political conflicts. This article investigates this question.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Elections, Democracy, Violence, Judiciary, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and Lesotho

108. CPLP: the first twenty-five years

Author:
Joseph Marques
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
The decision by Conjuntura Austral to dedicate a special issue to the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) is to be commended. The uniqueness of the organization justifies a timely review of a small sample of its activities to date. Created in 1996, the CPLP adopted three main vectors of activity:1) the promotion and dissemination of the Portuguese language; 2) cooperation in a wide array of domains (i.e., education, health, science and technology, defense, agriculture, public administration, communication, justice, public safety, culture, sport and social communication, sustainable development, etc.); and 3) political and diplomatic coordination, especially in multilateral forums. The organization also agreed to adhere to several fundamental political principles such as the respect of the sovereignty of each member country; non-interference in domestic issues; reciprocal treatment; peace, democracy, rule of law, human rights, and social justice; territorial integrity of each member state; and the commitment to the promotion of development and cooperation. In addition to a common language and shared cultural heritage, the uniqueness of the CPLP results from the union of nine non-contiguous member states into a privileged geocultural space – the lusosphere – dedicated to the active promotion of its three main goals across four continents. It is a privileged forum for a “pluricontinental dialogue” in Portuguese. In addition, each country contributes by bringing its history, its unique interpretation of the “lusosphere” as well as its regional context (i.e., membership in the European Union, Mercosur, Southern African Development Community, Economic Community of West African States, etc.) as well as economic opportunities to the group. By joining, member countries reinforce the group’s collective projection onto the world stage as well as the opportunity to expand each member country’s diplomatic footprint. While each member had different reasons to join (i.e., maximize politicaldiplomatic cooperation, language promotion, widen access to technical cooperation, etc.), all believe that the CPLP can bolster the group’s overall political and diplomatic prestige while enhancing their collective and individual prospects. This special issue consists of six articles ranging from language to health, security and defense issues, business negotiations and civilian-military relations. It covers but a few topics from a long list of issues which, after the first twentyfive years of this new international organization, warrant the attention and critical review of academic scholars.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Health, Business, Language, Indigenous, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Brazil, South America, Southeast Asia, and Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP)

109. The Western Sahara conflict in the Algerian Moroccan relations

Author:
Lotfi Sour
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Algeria and Morocco have for centuries kept an uneasy relationship of conflict and doubt which shaped the Maghreb region history. In fact, both states shared the same borders but never shared same policies. This caused the relational gap at both governmental level and social grounds. As a result, the hostility and continuing tension has remained at top in their foreign policies for most of their mutual history. Consequently, the Western Sahara conflict has been undoubtedly an important driver of one of the most critical problems to have confronted the two countries in the course of their bilateral relations. This article will examine the impact of this conflict on the geopolitical landscape of the Maghreb region and its implications on the Maghreb’s regional security and integrity.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Conflict, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, Morocco, and Western Sahara

110. África y (Sur) América Latina: Un interregionalismo posible, una alianza improbable

Author:
Francisco Santos Carrillo
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
El interés de América Latina por África se renovó a comienzos del presente siglo. Las transformaciones globales, el liderazgo de Brasil y la emergencia del regionalismo impulsaron una asociación basada en el diálogo político y la cooperación cuyo objetivo era alcanzar una mayor incidencia sobre el sistema internacional. Sin embargo, el déficit de interdependencia, la debilidad de la institucionalización interregional y la vulnerabilidad de los actores involucrados limitaron el alcance de esta estrategia sin alcanzar su verdadero potencial. En un escenario de incertidumbre que anuncia cambios en el orden mundial y consolida una gobernanza fragmentada, la posibilidad de restablecer esta relación encuentra nuevos incentivos. El artículo analiza los factores catalizadores de este proceso concluyendo que, pese a la oportunidad, su materialización sigue sin contar con las condiciones ni capacidades necesarias para competir geopolíticamente por África.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Africa, South America, Latin America, and Global South

111. De la Agenda Normativa Al ‘Giro Pragmático’: Causas, Implicaciones y Dilemas de la Estrategia Securitaria de la UE en El Sahel

Author:
Óscar Mateos Martín
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La región del Sahel se ha convertido en una prioridad estratégica para la Unión Europea (UE). Bruselas ha desplegado en la última década diversas misiones en el marco de su llamada Política Común de Seguridad y Defensa en países como Mali o Níger, a la vez que ha ofrecido un respaldo directo y masivo a nuevos actores regionales como el G5 Sahel, contribuyendo así a la proliferación de iniciativas militares impulsadas por diferentes actores globales que han convertido esta región en un espacio cada vez más militarizado y securitizado. El artículo analiza el contexto y las características de esta estrategia, considerando que escenifican un giro sustancial del papel tradicionalmente más normativo de la UE en el continente africano a una estrategia mucho más “pragmática”. Se argumenta que este cambio no responde a una única lógica sino a factores de diferente naturaleza y, a su vez, que presenta múltiples problemas, implicaciones y dilemas para la agenda europea en África en el corto, medio y largo plazo.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Militarization, and G5
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sahel

112. El Papel de un Reino Unido Post-brexit y su Nuevo Rol en el Africa Subsahariana

Author:
Juan Ramón Alvarez Cobelas
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Los políticos británicos del Reino Unido tras el ajustado triunfo en el Brexit prometieron a su opinión pública y a los dirigentes africanos que les quisieron oir, que una vez liberados del yugo político-económico que imponía la Unión Europea, las relaciones entre el mismo Reino Unido y los Estados africanos se abriría una nueva era de prosperidad mutua entre el mismo Reino Unido y el África subsahariana hasta el punto de convertirse en unas relaciones de igual a igual .El artículo trata de demostrar que ha ocurrido justamente lo contrario. El artículo examina los diferentes instrumentos de “cooperación” bien unilaterales, bien colectivos, por ejemplo, el “Compact with Africa, para llegar a la conclusión que los británcos perpetúan un cierto neocolonialismo maquillado.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, and Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Sub-Saharan Africa

113. Estados Unidos y África. Historia de una no-política

Author:
Pablo Rey-García and Pedro Rivas Nieto
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
En este artículo se estudian las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y África, desde los puntos de vista económico, político y de seguridad. Son, estos tres campos, interdependientes, pero a la vez enormemente dinámicos, tanto por la inercia política estadounidense, como por los condicionantes propios de África (déficit en desarrollo, pobreza, inseguridad o inestabilidad política) como por el contexto internacional. En este último aspecto, cobra especial relevancia la invasión rusa de Ucrania o la emergencia de la ambición militar China, pues ambos países compiten con Estados Unidos por tener una mejor posición en el continente africano.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, National Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Asia, North America, Sahel, United States of America, and Horn of Africa

114. Rusia en África. Nuevas dinámicas desde el Kremlin

Author:
Sebastián Ruiz-Cabrera
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Hace menos de una década, el continente africano era prácticamente la última prioridad de la política exterior de Rusia. Atrás quedaron las décadas doradas en las que el peso de la URSS se hacía notar en niveles como la ideología, las infraestructuras, la economía, la política o el sector educativo. Ahora bien, ante el creciente aislamiento internacional, Rusia vuelve a apostar por el apoyo del continente mientras Occidente mira con preocupación tales esfuerzos. En 2019 tuvo lugar en Sochi (Rusia) el primer foro económico entre la potencia dirigida por Putin y África, un foro en el que se definieron las líneas maestras en política exterior del Kremlin. Era un claro anuncio: Rusia estaba de vuelta en el continente africano después de una larga ausencia, en concreto desde la disolución de la Unión Soviética en 1991. El artículo analiza si su presencia en África es una presencia tan alarmista como se presenta por la Unión Europea o la Casa Blanca.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Infrastructure, Neoimperialism, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Soviet Union

115. China en África: Objetivos, instrumentos e implicaciones estratégicas

Author:
Fernando Delage
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Desde el fin de la Guerra Fría, cuatro grandes prioridades definieron la estrategia de la República Popular China hacia África: el acceso a recursos naturales y materias primas; la consecución de mercados para sus exportaciones de manufacturas; la obtención de apoyo a sus objetivos políticos; y la consolidación de un estatus como líder del mundo en desarrollo. A partir de la primera década del siglo XXI China se ha convertido asimismo en un importante socio financiero y en impulsor del desarrollo de infraestructuras en el continente, a la vez que ha adquirido una creciente presencia militar. La relación multidimensional construida por la China de Xi Jinping con África forma parte integral de su estrategia de ascenso global, con implicaciones económicas y geopolíticas que han atraído la atención de las restantes potencias.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Globalization, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Xi Jinping, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa and China

116. África: Competencia y sustitución en un entorno estratégico de rivalidad. Introducción al número especial

Author:
María Ángeles Alaminos and Antonio Marquina
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Este número especial de la Revista UNISCI se centra en la rivalidad creciente entre Estados existente en África y pretende ofrecer una visión comprehensiva del papel de distintos actores internacionales estatales en el continente africano, abarcando tanto el rol de las antiguas potencias coloniales, como la expansión creciente de China y el auge de la presencia e intervención de nuevos actores estatales con intereses políticos y económicos en el continente.
Topic:
European Union, State Actors, Rivalry, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, France, Latin America, and United States of America

117. June 2022 Issue

Author:
Tara Candland, Ryan O'Farrell, Lauren Poole, Caleb Weiss, and Boaz Ganor
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Boaz Ganor looks at the lessons that should be learned from the spring 2022 terror wave in Israel. His analysis kicks off the “CTC-ICT Focus on Israel” series, a joint effort between the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC) and the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University in Israel. In the coming months, the series will examine the terrorist threat landscape in Israel and the lessons other countries can learn from Israel’s counterterrorism efforts. The two feature analysis articles focus on the foreign fighter problem set in Ukraine and the evolving linkages to far-right extremism of actors on both sides of the conflict. Kacper Rekawek finds that unlike in 2014, “the 2022 conflict has, for the most part, not energized Western right-wing extremists, nor persuaded them to travel. In what is for Ukrainians a war for national survival and a fight to secure a Western democratic future for the country, the allure of the far-right in Ukraine has dimmed. Ukrainian units with far-right histories are now deeply integrated into Ukraine’s armed forces and eschew foreign recruitment, and one of those units, the Azov Regiment, was decimated during the siege of Mariupol. Very few foreign right-wing extremists have been recruited into Ukraine’s International Legion. In fact, anecdotal evidence suggests most of the foreign fighters who have traveled this year to fight on the Ukrainian side are fighting to safeguard Ukraine’s future as a Western democracy.” Don Rassler examines key concerns and questions about the war in Ukraine that are relevant to counterterrorism practitioners. Continuing this month’s focus on the impact of nefarious Russian actions, Christopher Faulkner examines the activities in Africa of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company closely tied to the Kremlin. He writes: “Wagner’s role in Africa poses a severe threat to the security and stability of African states as well as the strategic interests of the United States and allied nations.” Finally, Tara Candland, Ryan O’Farrell, Laren Poole, and Caleb Weiss assess the rising threat to Central Africa posed by the 2021 transformation of the Islamic State’s Congolese branch.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Democracy, Islamic State, Far Right, Wagner Group, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, and Central Africa

118. January 2022 Issue

Author:
Michael Knights, Alex Almeida, Don Rassler, Brian Fishman, and Amira Jadoon
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Notwithstanding a night attack that killed 11 Iraqi soldiers on an army base in the Iraqi province of Diyala earlier this month, the Islamic State is at its lowest ebb in Iraq in many years, according to new data published by Michael Knights and Alex Almeida in this month’s feature article. They write that “a comprehensive analysis of attack metrics shows an insurgency that has deteriorated in both the quality of its operations and overall volume of attack activity, which has fallen to its lowest point since 2003. The Islamic State is increasingly isolated from the population, confined to remote rural backwaters controlled by Iraq’s less effective armed forces and militias, and lacks reach into urban centers.” They note that “the key analytical quandary that emerges from this picture is whether the downtrend marks the onset of an enduring decline for the group, or if the Islamic State is merely lying low while laying the groundwork for its survival as a generational insurgency.” In this month’s interview, Amy Zegart speaks to Brian Fishman and Don Rassler about her soon-to-be published book Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence. In the interview, she calls for the creation in the United States of a dedicated open-source intelligence agency because “OSINT will never get the priority or resources the nation needs without its own agency.” Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, and Andrew Mines assess the threat trajectory of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) in the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. They assess that “given the absence of multilateral counterterrorism pressure, the Taliban’s limited capacity to govern, and a worsening humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, ISK now finds itself perhaps in the most permissive environment yet to rebuild, rally, and expand.” Drawing on extensive fieldwork, including interviews with bandits and jihadi defectors, James Barnett, Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, and Abdulaziz Abdulaziz examine the nexus between Nigeria’s bandits and jihadi organizations in northwestern Nigeria. They find that despite widespread fears bandits and jihadis would find common cause, there has been infrequent cooperation between them because they have conflicting approaches in their treatment of local inhabitants and because the more powerful bandits feel they have little to gain from working with the jihadis.
Topic:
Crime, Insurgency, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and Nigeria

119. Bölünmüş Toplumlarda Anayasa Yapımı: Güney Afrika Deneyimi (Constitution-Making Processes in Divided Societies: The South African Experience)

Author:
Sevtap Yokuş
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Bölünmüş toplumlarda anayasa yapım süreçleri, demokratik anayasa bakımından çok daha büyük önem taşır. Anayasal düzenlemeler ve tercihler kadar anayasa yapım yöntemleri de demokratik anayasa açısından belirleyicidirler. Demokratik anayasa yapımı süreçleri, toplumun bütün kesimlerinin katılımına açık olarak yürütülür. Katılımcı anayasa yapım örneklerinden en orijinal ve en çarpıcı olanı, Güney Afrika Anayasası inşa sürecidir. Bu süreç, ayrımcı Apartheid rejiminden demokrasiye geçişi sağladı. Kurucu Meclis, Anayasa inşa sürecini güvenilir kılmak amacıyla, şeffaflık ve katılımcılık ilkelerini sürece hâkim kılmaya çalıştı. Güney Afrika anayasa yapım süreci, başarılı bir demokratikleşme örneğidir. Güney Afrika deneyimi, çatışma çözümünde anayasa yapım yönteminin ne denli belirleyici olduğunu göstermesi bakımından da önemlidir.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Constitution, Participation, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

120. Managing Crises, the Least-Bad Option

Author:
Joost Hiltermann
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Conflict management in the MENA region has little chance of succeeding as conflicts increasingly intersect and tensions driven by larger, regional triggers become even more unpredictable
Topic:
Governance, Conflict, Crisis Management, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA