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151. Jus Tribalis: Statelessness, Ethnicity and Registration in Kenya

Author:
Samantha Balaton-Chrimes
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
Many cases of mass statelessness arise from discrimination against groups. Accordingly, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (‘UNHCR’) and others sometimes pursue group forms of recognition in campaigns to remedy statelessness. In this article, I consider the implications of such an approach by examining its effects in Kenya using the cases of Makonde, Pemba, Shona, Nubian and Galje’el ethnic communities. I argue that securing citizenship is neither purely political and group-based nor purely legal and individual, but rather that these conceptions of citizenship are interdependent, that there are both risks and opportunities in this entanglement and that the management of both requires attention to a cultivated vagueness that characterises the role of ethnic identity in registration and citizenship in Kenya. I conclude with an argument for more vigilance regarding the use of ethnic identity in citizenship bureaucracy and for caution in the export of this group-based campaigning strategy to other national contexts.
Topic:
Citizenship, Ethnicity, Bureaucracy, UNHCR, Statelessness, and Registration
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

152. Exclusionary Governance in Burundi: Implications for Democracy and Consolidating Peace

Author:
Fabrice Nshimirimana
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article aims to demonstrate the effects of exclusionary forms of governance on democracy and peace with reference to Burundi’s post-Arusha electoral rivalries. The Arusha agreement was the first in a series of peace agreements that terminated over a decade of civil strife, which was in many respects based on interethnic conflict. The Arusha pacification model resolved Burundi’s past interethnic conflicts and rivalries, and the main cleavage is currently between and within political parties rather than ethnic groups. In explaining the causes of the crisis of democracy and peace, the article gives considerable weight to Burundi’s post-Arusha elections. The first post-Arusha elections held in 2005, won by the former Hutu-dominated rebel movement, the National Council for the Defence of Democracy–Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD–FDD) were regarded as free and fair, but other endogenous and exogenous factors also played a role. The second and third post-Arusha elections held in 2010 and 2015 respectively, largely paved the way for the current crisis of democracy and peace. The CNDD–FDD’s dominant position allowed it to gradually reduce the democratic space in Burundi, leading to the establishment of an authoritarian, one-party system through elections and violence. Burundi’s current crisis of peace is caused by the failure of democracy.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

153. The Potential of Paradiplomacy as a Counter-terrorism Strategy in Cabo Delgado

Author:
Ndzalama Cleopatra Mathebula and Hope Moremi
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This paper discusses and proposes paradiplomacy and community engagement as instruments of stabilising Cabo Delgado. The paper contributes to the literature on the integration of paradiplomacy and community engagement in Africa’s counter-terrorism approaches. The study employed a qualitative explorative approach, which relied mainly on documentary sources of data in the form of existing literature, previous research outputs and media reports. The main argument is that counter-terrorism efforts in Africa have embodied a top-down approach that has achieved only little results and no sustainable peace. Thus, employing a paradiplomatic approach and engaging with the community holds significant prospects for addressing the factors that inflame terrorist-related conflict and promoting sustainable peace in the province of Cabo Delgado. In addition, the study reveals that, apart from corruption and low political participation, the key internal factors driving the Cabo Delgado conflict are the socio-economic injustices resulting from poor governance, neglect by the government, internal displacement and loss of livelihoods due to commercial mining activities. As a result, a people-centred approach is necessary to address these socio-economic challenges and thereby promote peace in the region.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Cabo Delgado

154. Violent Conflict and Resilient Urban Spaces in the Global South: Learning from Community Peacebuilding in Jos, Nigeria

Author:
Oluwole Ojewale
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This study is conceived within a theoretical framework that seeks to rationalise the linkages between space, peacebuilding and urban resilience. The paper responds to the research question: How do city residents build urban resilience and prevent violent conflict? The study obtained primary data by fusing both qualitative and quantitative research methods through household data collection and the Geographic Information System (GIS). The study notes indigenous conflict management, the traditional justice system and community policing, civic education, non-governmental interventions, and political and economic measures as factors of urban resilience to violent conflict. The study concludes that collaboration becomes effective when initiatives are designed at the community level with ties to specific government agencies for additional support, expertise and an enabling environment.
Topic:
Global South, Conflict, Urban, Resilience, Community, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

155. Evaluating Alternative Dispute Resolution in Resolving Land Conflicts in Ifakara, Tanzania

Author:
Theresia Nicholaus Kamoleka and Charles Lucian
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Inter-village land disputes confronted by the Ifakara Town Council – a local governing authority in Tanzania – arise from socio-economic complexities, poor boundary demarcation, and weak institutional frameworks, making litigation ineffective. Despite the prevalence of these conflicts, there is limited understanding of how Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) mechanisms, particularly mediation, can address such issues in rural Tanzania. This study evaluates the applicability and effectiveness of ADR, with a focus on mediation, in resolving these disputes. Given the limitations of litigation, culturally appropriate ADR methods are essential for achieving sustainable conflict resolution. The research used a mixed-methods approach, collecting qualitative and quantitative data through interviews, document reviews, and questionnaires from stakeholders in four villages. The findings show that while ADR, especially mediation, is valued for its flexibility and cultural relevance, its effectiveness is limited by challenges such as poor boundary demarcation, bureaucratic delays, weak institutional capacity, and resistance from disputing parties. The study concludes that to enhance ADR effectiveness, structural issues like boundary demarcation and institutional weaknesses must be addressed. It recommends improving boundary clarity, strengthening institutional frameworks, increasing community awareness, and establishing monitoring systems to ensure compliance with ADR outcomes. These measures could promote sustainable land governance in Ifakara and similar regions across Sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Governance, Negotiation, Mediation, and Land Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

156. The African Union’s 2063 goal of silencing the guns in the new world order

Author:
Igwe Kelechi Njoku
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
After the end of the Second World War in 1945 and the dawn of the new world order, Africa remained passive and accepted the geopolitical realities of the international system without an assertive, unified regional policy. Since the end of the Cold War, little consideration has been given to the African continent in the security and political discussions and decisions of the global powers. However, post 9/11, international security has been redefined, and new challenges have been identified. Thus, at the beginning of the 21st century, Africa is facing a variety of new security challenges and has become an increasingly important battleground in the fight against terrorism. The revolutions, now known as the Arab Spring, that swept through North Africa in 2011 have created new challenges for the African continent and are compounding the African peoples’ efforts towards poverty alleviation, state stability, socioeconomic development, democracy, and good governance. In addition to the crises of civil war, ethnic conflict, circumvention of constituted term limits, military coups, state insecurity, and rampant corruption at all levels, the COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged global health systems and revealed how vulnerable Africa can be in the midst of global challenges. During this crucial period when the continent is confronted with these myriad security challenges, it needs an effective, decisive and strategic multilateral agenda to achieve the continent’s security aspirations. This paper argues that Africa’s leadership should position the continent as an independent and equal actor in the international system and provide Africa-oriented political solutions to African problems, especially in security, statecraft and conflict resolution. These goals are captured in the African Union’s (AU’s) Agenda 2063, with one of the goals being to silence the guns, to end all wars and violent conflicts and promote dialogue-based mechanisms for conflict prevention and resolution by 2030. In the contestation of increasing multi-polarity in the international system Africa, once again like the Cold War era, has become a prioritised region in the scramble for power and resources by the global superpowers. The AU must pilot its continental affairs in order to attain its pan-African Agenda 2063, irrespective of the challenges of the new world order.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, International Security, African Union, and International System
Political Geography:
Africa

157. Impact of the ongoing crisis on the education of the North West Region of Cameroon

Author:
Bamnjo Herman Yenika
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The Northwest Region of Cameroon has been deeply affected by the ongoing Anglophone crisis, which has had a significant impact on education in the region. This study aims to assess the impact of the crisis on education in the region. The study adopted both qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative methods were used to analyse data on school enrolment, dropout rates and access to education. A total of 300 questionnaires were administered and 220 were returned. The findings of the study show that school enrolment has decreased significantly and dropout rates have increased due to the crisis. The study further found that the crisis has had a profoundly negative impact on education in the Northwest Region of Cameroon. The study, therefore, recommends actions to address the impact of the crisis and to ensure that children can access quality education. In modern society, the majority of the population depends on the education of children as a source of future economic and social growth and increasing technological know-how. Above all, education is a basic human need that can ensure development. Studies have proven that aside from the fact that education is a basic human right for all children, it is also a powerful tool by which social and economic development can be attained and is a way of lifting children out of poverty. Education is a basic human right necessary for socially and economically marginalised children and adults to lift themselves out of poverty. Human Rights Watch argues that education ‘can break generational cycles of poverty by enabling children to gain life skills and knowledge needed to cope with today’s challenges.’1 Education is linked to the creation of concrete improvements in health and nutrition, improving children’s chances for survival. It is believed that education is a powerful protection factor as ‘children who are in school are less likely to come into conflict with the law’ and they are ‘much less vulnerable to rampant forms of child exploitation, including child labour, trafficking and recruitment into armed groups and forces.’2 Education is considered a right and not a privilege, as every child has the right to be educated. According to Norad, the right to education is a fundamental human right. Every individual, irrespective of race, gender, nationality, ethnic or social origin, religion or political preferences, age or disability, is entitled to a free elementary education.3
Topic:
Security, Education, Governance, Youth, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

158. An in-depth analysis of maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea

Author:
Elsie Amelia Tachie-Menson
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The Gulf of Guinea (GoG) emerges as a focal point of global concern due to escalating maritime insecurity, encompassing rampant illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, piracy, armed robbery, and oil-related crimes. This tumultuous maritime environment has weathered ongoing challenges over time, necessitating a meticulous examination of its security landscape. Beyond the pervasive issues, the GoG faces multifaceted threats, including geopolitical complexities, economic vulnerabilities, and environmental concerns. The intertwining of these factors amplifies the region’s susceptibility to maritime crimes and the urgency of comprehensive security measures. Episodes of maritime piracy in West Africa have thrust the region into the spotlight, shedding light on the adaptability of criminal entities. A retrospective analysis of 2021 reveals a notable 54% reduction in overall piracy and maritime crime,1 indicating a positive trend from the preceding year. Nonetheless, delving deeper into the intricacies of specific incidents, their modus operandi and the identities of involved groups is imperative. As stakeholders grapple with these challenges, an unambiguous understanding of the region’s maritime vulnerabilities is paramount. This paper unveils critical insights into the ever-evolving dynamics of maritime threats in the GoG.
Topic:
Security, Piracy, Maritime, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa and Gulf of Guinea

159. Beyond hard tactics: Investigating the use of soft approaches in preventing and countering violent extremism in the informal settlements of Kibera, Nairobi County, Kenya

Author:
Regina M. Mwendwa and Jescah Otieno
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Violent extremism has become a worldwide epidemic and has received increased focus in policy research and scholarship in recent years. Governments, Kenya included, have heavily invested in hard-line approaches to curbing this vice through, inter alia, the training of security operation agents and investing in equipment aimed at detecting, deterring and disrupting the activities of terrorists. While hard approaches may achieve temporary success, their long-term effectiveness can be undermined by unintended negative consequences that outweigh their benefits. County Action Plans (CAPs) have been developed for preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) in Kenya and these have incorporated some soft approaches. Therefore, this paper interrogates the uptake of soft approaches by various institutions in the informal settlements of Kibera, Nairobi County and explores the models of soft approaches applied and their impact on preventing violent extremism (PVE). Through the behaviour change theory and drawing from the purposive sampling technique, data was generated through interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) with 22 participants. Data was analysed thematically and is presented here according to the emerging themes. This paper advances the thesis that the use of softer approaches in countering violent extremism (CVE) results in improved coordination and collaboration between government agencies and civil society organisations (CSOs) working in the area.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Informal Settlement, Countering Violent Extremism, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Nairobi

160. Eswatini’s June 2021 protests revisited: Understanding political violence in Eswatini

Author:
Sizwebanzi Mngomezulu
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
For most observers of the socio-political affairs of Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), the events of 29 June 2021 and those of earlier weeks leading up to them, presented a level of violence that the country has not experienced since independence. Indeed, it could be argued that the violence was unparalleled in the country’s modern history. Given the significance of this event, this article seeks to contextualise the conflict and examine whether the government has effectively dealt with the grievances of the protesters. It will argue that the disturbances of June 2021 were unique because they were largely non-partisan, led by groups of young people who wished to put police brutality to an end in the country. The article will also argue that whereas past protests usually took place in the main cities of the country, this time, they were spread throughout rural and urban communities, signalling a shift in the frustration locus. In elaborating on these two interconnected theses presented above, the article will proceed as follows: it will offer a concise narration of the events preceding the violence of 29 June 2021 that was centred on the death of the University of Swaziland law student Thabani Nkomonye. Thereafter, it will consider the call for an elected prime minister (PM) that came out of the protests, highlighting that these protesters were largely unaffiliated with the major political parties in the country, whose clarion call is multi-party democracy. The conclusion that will be drawn is that the authorities failed to respond to the initial concerns of the people due to the closed nature of the political system of the country and its ineffective citizen participation structures. The authorities thus chose a similar zero-sum approach after the conflict. The unfortunate consequence of this is that the country is likely to witness similar outbursts unless it deals with the root cause of the problem.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democracy, Impunity, Dialogue, and Political Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

161. Political transition and democratic challenges in central Sahel

Author:
Kellian Mbianda
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Historically, regime changes in both the global North and South are closely linked. The process of change often results in the establishment of democracy, a return to authoritarianism, or the emergence of revolutionary systems.1 The oscillation between non-representative regimes and democracy is frequently a consequence of political and social instability, originating from social and economic inequalities between the wealthy and the poor.2 As such, political transitions are often easier to achieve during periods of economic recession due to the lower associated costs. Economic hardships increase the likelihood of revolution or coups. Often, the impoverished majority resort to civil unrest to express dissatisfaction with the country’s low level of development and government mismanagement of public funds. This popular discontent is often accompanied by elite or military officers seizing power from the incumbent government, promising economic improvement or strengthened homeland security. Throughout history, many political transitions have occurred during economic recessions, including in Brazil (1964), Chile (1973), Argentina (1976), Burkina Faso (1983), Mali (1991), and Niger (1999).
Topic:
Democracy, Leadership, Coup, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

162. Scoping the operational dynamics of the MNJTF in the Lake Chad Basin: A regional security complex perspective

Author:
Nufaisa Garba Ahmed
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In Africa, one of the most important repositories of history, culture and ecology is the Lake Chad Basin (LCB), which has accurately been described as ‘an African geosymbol in a class of its own.’1 That Lake Chad is a strategic and important natural resource has captivated global attention and concerns over the decline and withering of the Lake. The situation has been made worse by the recent upsurge in violent conflict and confrontation in the region, thus making the region a hotspot for insecurity. This is not disconnected from the emergence and activities of the Boko Haram group, who have been carrying out an insurrection in northern Nigeria over the past few decades. The terrorist group has leveraged the largely porous borders of the countries in the LCB, among other features, to use the Lake Chad Region (LCR) as fertile ground to expand their influence and acquire havens for their illicit ventures. Military operations to counter the insurgency have equally pushed back the sect into the fringes of the LCR, thereby leading to the trans-nationalisation of the insurgency across the riparian countries of Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria. The trans-nationalisation of the insurgency across the fragile region has exacerbated an already complex crisis and has overstretched and overburdened LCB countries.2 The sect’s swift rise to prominence due to the havoc caused by its activities and its resilience and tenacity in carrying out large-scale, trans-border attacks have necessitated sub-regional commitments and cooperation among the affected countries.
Topic:
Security, Peace, Boko Haram, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Lake Chad Basin

163. Sexual violence as a weapon: The gendered impact of banditry in Nigeria’s Northwest

Author:
Tosin Osasona
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Armed banditry in Nigeria’s Northwest geopolitical zone is driving an unprecedented national humanitarian and security crisis in terms of its disruptive impact and human casualties,1 with bandits responsible for more deaths than Boko Haram and other non-state armed groups combined.2 Bandits are the various organised criminal groups involved in rape and other sexual violence, kidnap-for-ransom, armed robbery, cattle rustling, pillage and attacks on traders, farmers, and travellers, particularly in Nigeria’s Northeast region.3 While banditry is rapidly extending into other Nigerian geopolitical zones, the Northwest is the epicentre of this emergency in Nigeria. In a geopolitical zone blighted by poverty, this security crisis has worsened socioeconomic outcomes, as women and other vulnerable groups are disproportionately affected.4 There are 9% more women than men who are internally displaced persons in the region.5 Utilisation of maternal healthcare is lower than the national average in the region.6 Only 29% of women in the region are literate. In addition, girls suffer more than boys in terms of missing out on education,7 with around 47% of eligible girls in the region receiving primary education.8 These poor socioeconomic outcomes are direct pointers to the failure of governance systems in the region.
Topic:
Security, Women, Geopolitics, Gender Based Violence, Sexual Violence, Peace, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and Banditry
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

164. The role of political compromise in South Africa’s Government of National Unity: Balancing competing interests for stability and peacebuilding

Author:
Mahlatse Ragolane and Nthabiseng Gratitude Khoza
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The transition from apartheid to democracy in South Africa remains a defining global moment in history emblematic of how political compromise can transform a divided society. Central to this transformation was the establishment of the Government of National Unity (GNU), a power-sharing arrangement that functioned from 1994 to 1997. GNUs are generally formed with the aim of bringing together the broadest possible spectrum of political interests in response to a crisis. GNUs are formed to achieve national interests, such as nation-building, social order, and peace and stability.1 After a peaceful transition in 1994, South Africa was readmitted as a member of the international community of nations. This time, it was recognised as a constitutional democratic state, relinquishing its pariah status. The effort to establish South Africa’s position in international relations began earnestly, guided by its foundational values and principles, as enshrined in the Constitution.2 The GNU was an unprecedented act of political compromise created to address deep-rooted historical grievances, while managing the competing interests of various political actors. Fast forward to 2024, and the political landscape in South Africa leading up to the recent elections was marked by significant shifts and uncertain developments. This is due to the rise of small parties, declining support for traditional parties, such as the African National Congress (ANC), and increasing public dissatisfaction with governance, which created an environment characterised by uncertainty and fragmentation.3 This environment set the stage for the formation of the GNU – a coalition formation driven by the need to stabilise a fractured political environment and address deep-seated socioeconomic challenges. South Africa has now entered an era of multi-party governance across all three spheres of government.4 Unlike the historic GNU of 1994, which emerged from the widespread recognition of the merits of compromise among the most significant political actors5 and the fight against injustices by ANC and other movements, the 2024 GNU was born out of electoral necessity and a fragmented electorate. This development is likely to influence changes to the existing governance framework to facilitate cooperative and stable governance across the three spheres of government.6 South Africa is at a pivotal moment and needs to ensure the stabilisation of the political landscape, while simultaneously laying the foundations for peace, reconciliation and sustainable development. While the diverse perspectives within a GNU can lead to adaptive and responsive policies, the need for consensus can also result in rigid compromises that slow down the government’s ability to act swiftly in response to stability and peacebuilding.7 This article delves into the intricacies of the GNU, focusing on how political compromise can be used as a tool to balance competing interests and promote stability, peace and governance in South Africa.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Political stability, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

165. Emerging cyber conflicts and the role of digital diplomacy in Africa: Trends and strategies

Author:
Abraham Ename Minko
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
As Africa rapidly integrates digital technologies into its socio-political and economic systems, it faces new and complex challenges related to cyber conflicts and digital diplomacy. The rise of digital infrastructure has transformed how African nations engage in domestic and international affairs, leading to a significant shift in conflict dynamics. Traditional forms of conflict, such as territorial disputes and political unrest, are increasingly being supplemented or, in some cases, replaced by cyber-related threats. These include hacking, cyber espionage, and misinformation campaigns, which pose substantial risks to national security, economic stability, and social cohesion. In recent years, the continent has witnessed several high-profile cyber incidents highlighting digital diplomacy’s growing importance. For instance, the 2018 elections in Kenya were marred by allegations of cyber interference and misinformation campaigns, which were reportedly aimed at influencing public opinion and electoral outcomes. Similarly, South Africa has experienced multiple ransomware attacks targeting critical infrastructure, such as healthcare and municipal services, underscoring the vulnerabilities associated with increased digital reliance.
Topic:
Security, Cybersecurity, Peace, and Digital Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Africa

166. The Western Sahara conflict has been described as a ‘frozen conflict’ and as ‘decolonisation’s last stand.’ Despite the multiple ceasefires throughout its history, the conflict has not been fully resolved. Since 1974, Western Sahara has been on the shortlist of non-self-governing territories. However, it is the only one on the list that has not condoned this status. The Polisario Front spent 50 years fighting for the independence of the Sahrawi Arab Republic from Morocco, mostly using arms and guerrilla warfare. This period of violence was followed by a ceasefire between the two stakeholders. Nonetheless, in 2020, Morocco’s response to the Sahrawi protests resulted in a resumption of fighting by the Polisario Front, essentially reopening ‘Pandora’s Box’ and showing that, despite the ceasefire, a permanent solution is urgently needed. This would need to happen within the broader African security landscape, which is currently experiencing a shift amidst the weakening of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, the growing presence of various private military companies (PMC), and the emerging role of countries such as Russia and Türkiye in African conflict situations. Considering the aforementioned changes, this article seeks to assess whether these shifts in the African security landscape will influence the situation in Western Sahara by maintaining the status quo or revitalising the efforts to resolve or exacerbate the existing tensions.

Author:
Ibrahim Sakawa Magara and Miranda Rivers
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article (re)appraises the role of civil society in South Sudan’s peace process. Situated at the confluence of civil society inclusion/exclusion, the significance of civil society participation and its contribution to peace processes, the article contributes to literature on inclusive and sustainable peace. The article employs a qualitative case analysis to illuminate the dynamics of civil society participation in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)-led peace process for South Sudan. The article engages with factors that compromise the efficacy of civic action in South Sudan and issues that are injurious to the sector’s legitimacy. The article neither downplays the complexity and precarity of the environment in which the South Sudanese civil society finds itself nor overplays the importance and contributions of civil society to the peace process. More importantly, it reveals that civil society in South Sudan is severely fragmentated and suggests that this fragmentation needs to be addressed as it simultaneously compromises civil society’s peacemaking efficacy and undermines the sector’s legitimacy. In the end, the article adds to the view that civil society is not always a force for peace and the sector’s inclusion; participation does not necessarily contribute to legitimising or sustaining peace processes and their outcomes.
Topic:
Civil Society, Peace, Sustainability, Inclusion, Fragmentation, Peace Process, Peacemaking, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

167. Examining the Value of a “Soft Power” Net Assessment: Comparing Chinese and U.S. Power Projection in Africa

Author:
Michael J. McNerney, Oluwatimilehin Sotubo, and Daniel Egel
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has entered an era in which it is no longer willing to be second fiddle to the United States. After many years of quietly growing China’s economy, following Deng Xiaoping’s guidance to “hide your strength and bide your time,”1 the CCP and President Xi Jinping are overseeing a plan for a more assertive China that uses its political and economic power to influence international relations. Underpinning China’s more assertive approach is a new concept that Xi has called zonghe guoli or “comprehensive national power.” This is a concept that seeks to describe “China’s combined military, economic, and technological power and foreign policy influence,”2 particularly as it compares to that of the United States and its allies.3 Xi’s conclusion, it seems, is that China’s zonghe guoli has grown such that China no longer needs to stand in America’s shadow. The United States is well-aware of the challenge posed by China. The 2022 National Security Strategy emphasized that China “is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it.”4 Given such high stakes, it should be no surprise that the U.S. government’s strategy argues for including “all elements of national power” in “out-competing China.”5 Competing effectively against China requires a nuanced understanding – a net assessment – of the relative strengths of China and the United States.6 There are now robust U.S.-China net assessments focused on military capabilities,7 key emergent technologies,8 defense industrial base,9 and overall national competitiveness.10 But how effective are the non-military components of U.S. efforts to project power abroad in comparison to those of China? Comparable analyses of America’s “soft power” vis-à-vis China are far more limited.11
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, National Security, Economy, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

168. Offshore Dependencies: The Adverse Incorporation of African Countries in Global Wealth Chains

Author:
Pritish Behuria
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
There is mounting pressure to combat global tax evasion and avoidance, with influential studies highlighting the vast scale (amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars a year) of tax evasion and avoidance globally.1 Usually, the blame is placed on “tax havens,” often imagined as small micro-states. It is often argued that trillions of dollars will be lost to such jurisdictions over the next decade.2 Recent multilateral initiatives include the Organization for Economic Coopera- tion and Development (OECD) and G20 Multilateral Convention to Imple- ment Tax Related Measures to Prevent Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS). BEPS has called for committing signatories to implement tax treaty measures to adhere to international tax rules. The goal of the initiatives is to target “double non-taxation,” with many tax havens often using Double Taxation Avoidance Agreements (DTAAs) to entice companies to their jurisdictions, resulting in these companies barely being taxed. In 2021, nearly 140 countries signed the OECD’s Global Tax Deal. The deal includes two pillars: the first aims to real- locate the residual profits of large multinationals from their home countries to jurisdictions where they generate revenue, while the second establishes a 15 percent global minimum corporate tax.3 The United States and other industrial- ized countries continue to dither on their commitments resulting in delays to the implementation of both pillars.
Topic:
Tax Systems, Tax Evasion, Offshore Finance, and Global Wealth Chains
Political Geography:
Africa

169. The Colonial Invention of Mozambique: From African Empires to Overseas Colony and Province

Author:
José Alejandro Sebastian Barrios Diaz
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Mozambique, a country situated in southeastern Africa, lies between South Africa and Tanzania, washed by the waters of the Indian Ocean, for-ming the Mozambique Channel with the island of Madagascar. Like all Afri-can countries, it inherited borders from colonization and forged its national identity based on the premise of combating colonial occupation. The country’s historical formation resembles an “African mosaic” with a “scent of the Indian Ocean” resulting in a pronounced multiculturalism (Liesegang 1996). Capela (1996, 9) emphasizes the “civilizational and cultural heterogeneity of the peoples summoned to constitute the nation” and suggests that “approaching this fragmented reality cannot be done on the assumption of a sociologically nonexistent national unity”.Therefore, it is a country whose territory in the 19th century, still as an Overseas Province, was undetermined, being an “area without certain limits or defined borders” (Lobato 2008, 15). Administratively, there was a Governor-General assisted by District Administrators. After its independence in 1975, it became a sovereign state within the borders defined by colonial powers.
Topic:
History, State Formation, and Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, and Portugal

170. The Problematic Resettlements: A Literature Review

Author:
Felipe André Angst and Hermenegildo Alberto Machoi
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
One of the problems faced by Mozambican society in recent years is the management of the resettlements created by the implementation of mega--projects involving the exploitation of natural resources and the construction of major undertakings (roads, bridges and other infrastructure). The aim of this paper is to briefly review the literature on the subject of resettlement, with the objective of devising a future model that can be applied to Mozambican society, respecting the specific characteristics of each community, based on the problems identified.It is extremely important to study resettlement processes in Mozam-bique, as they have become a phenomenon with harmful consequences for the lives of local communities, as mentioned by Machel (2014), Silva (2018), Marques, Giondo, Cruz and Mendes (2018). According to Castro (2016) and Marques et al. (2018), the resettlement process causes major changes in daily life, associated with uncertainty about the future of the resettled populations. Marques et al. (2018) also point out that these processes cause changes in the environment and in the lives of those affected.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Resettlement, and Literature Review
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

171. State-Building in Post-1991 Ethiopia: EPRDF's Pseudo Federalism and Reincarnating Authoritarian Centralisation, an Overview and Critique

Author:
Habtamu Wondimu Hibiso and Solomon Gebre Weldeananiya
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front), which captured state power in 1991, restructured the state along ethnic federalism to answer the ‘nationalities question’. Ethiopia’s federalism is designed to share constitutional power with regional states. Ethiopia’s federal exercise under EPRDF (1991-2018) resembles pre-1991 centralist regimes, except for unitary and assimilationist policies aimed at nation-building. Hence, EPRDF’s sta-te-building through federalism accommodated diversity, except for political participation and decision-making within the regions’ jurisdiction. Andreas, one of the architects of Ethiopia’s federalism and a legal philosopher, boldly argues that Ethiopian regional units with strong self-rule over their regions checked on the misuse of centralised power and the illegitimate application of government’s power (Andreas 2010). Andreas’ assertion was, at best, narrowly interpreting the right and relative freedom of units in comparison to the pre-1991 political order, and at worst, legitimising the federal order from the guardian of jurisprudence. Arguably, compared to the pre-1991 order, power was shared between the centre and periphery, albeit theoretically. However, as far as the theory and praxis of federalism are concerned, there have been no such practices that warrant Andreas’ assertion and other scholars vying to substantiate the cons-titutional practice of federalism. This has sparked political and theoretical debates, except among the pro-EPRDF camp. States, whether they are small or big, homogeneous or heterogeneous, adopt federalism, considering their local context. In Ethiopia, federalism was adopted to save the country from disintegration, which had elements of hol-ding together (Assefa 2013; Andreas 2013). Enfranchising Ethiopian nations and nationalities and rectifying historical injustices justified Ethiopia’s fede-ralism (Clapham 2013). Despite this objective of Ethiopia’s federalism, the reality was that it strengthened the political centre’s control over the periphery, far from answering the nationalities’ questions. This has been a breeding ground for discontent, rivalries, and ethnic tensions, which undermined democratic state-building and constitutional order. Amidst scant scholarly works on the cause for the creeping of authoritarian and highly centralised rule in EPRDF’s ethnic federalism, since most scholarly works focus on the effects and limitations of ethnic federalism, this paper examines why federa-lism lost its stated objective of democratic and constitutional empowerment of nations in post-1991 Ethiopia’s state-building.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Federalism, Centralization, Statebuilding, and Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

172. Mediation Dynamics and Commitments for Peace in Mozambique (1989-2019)

Author:
Cremildo de Abreu Coutinho and Eduardo Munhoz Svartman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
In the period immediately following the proclamation of indepen-dence, a civil war broke out in Mozambique, with the main belligerents being the government of the Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO)3 and the National Resistance of Mozambique (RENAMO)4, an insurgent movement made up mostly of FRELIMO dissidents who disagreed with the direction the country was taking. According to Nowak (2012), conflicts and desires for peaceful relations coexist in human nature. It was in this context that, after a negotiation process, the Rome Agreement was signed in 1992, with the objective of achieving peace. According to Galtung (1995), this is a pheno-menon characterized as a framework in which conflict manifests itself in a non-violent and creative way. The vast literature available on the peace process in Mozambique focuses on the analysis of the leading role of the two main belligerents. There is a gap in the detailed understanding of the commitment of mediators and observers to achieving sustainable peace. To this end, the first stage of the article is reserved for addressing the dynamics of mediation between the various levels of actors, supported by the theory of multi-track diplomacy which, according to McDonald (2012), is a paradigm that seeks to identify and understand the causes of conflicts within a nation, and seek to develop mutual understanding between the parties in conflict, through multifaceted diplomacy, with the involvement of both government actors and private ins-titutions, using multiple channels of communication, aiming at reconcilia-tion and pacification of the nation. Subsequently, the commitment to peace on the part of the FRELIMO government and the former rebel movement, RENAMO, is analyzed. Thus, the research has the following guiding question: how has mediation occurred and what is the commitment to peace between the belligerents?The approach to mediation dynamics may allow us to understand the trajectories of the peace process in the face of contradictory ideologies, not only in the pretexts that determined the civil war (1977-1992), but also in how the Rome Peace Agreement was possible. Understanding the phenomenon suggests the obedience of path dependency, a mechanism that consolidates the understanding of the present, following the paths that determined the present itself. Associated with the political culture rooted in the heart of the main proponents, the data presented will allow us to understand the success or failure of the thirty years of implementation of the Rome Peace Agreement, which, from a formal point of view, brought a series of social and political reforms.
Topic:
Civil War, Domestic Politics, Mediation, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

173. Crisis and Integration: Regional Economic Communities and African Integration

Author:
Rômulo Milhomem Freitas Figueira Neves and Paulo Gilberto Fagundes Visentini
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The economic integration process in Africa is theoretically in its final stage, marked by the settling of the agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area. Signed in Kigali, in 2018, by 44 of the 55 Afri-can Union members, the agreement came into effect in April 2019 after the 22nd signatory country approved the document. As of June 2024, Eritrea was the only country that had not signed the agreement, while 47 AU members, including the Sahrawi Republic, had endorsed it. Madagascar, Somalia, Benin, Libya, Liberia, Sudan, and South Sudan were the remaining countries yet to ratify. Thus, the agreement is fully in effect, following the ordinary steps for its consolidation. A dedicated secretariat, reporting directly to the Afri-can Union Executive Council, has been established in Accra. However, the situation on the ground is much more complex, with overlapping regional communities, varying stages of sub-regional integration, and state bureau-cracies with significant disparities in development, as well as a considerable number of ongoing internal and international conflicts. Therefore, this article aims to synthesize, based on historical analy-sis — with a particular focus on global and regional economic crises — and the use of aggregated data from international organizations, the processes of sub-regional integration in Africa. This will provide a clear understanding of the different stages of integration and the involvement of various countries in the existing pathways. The priority will be to understand the role of the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) defined by the Abuja Treaty of 1991, which established the African Economic Community and designated them as the foundations of the integration process outlined in the agreement. A complementary goal is to provide a basis for more detailed and specific future analyses by other researchers, to better understand the role and classification of each sub-regional integration process. To this end, the article offers a brief history of the African integration process, starting with the creation of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 1975 and the adoption of the Lagos Plan of Action in 1980 as responses from newly inde-pendent countries to the global crises of the 1970s, as well as a summary of the distribution of countries across various initiatives.
Topic:
Regional Integration, Regional Economy, Economic Crisis, and African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
Political Geography:
Africa

174. Too Poor for Peace: Women in Nigeria's Niger Delta Amnesty Programme

Author:
Jacinta Chimaka Nwaka, Lilian Chidiebere Onyeiwu, and Marcel Alkali
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The Niger Delta region is one of Africa’s conflict spots. The resour-ce-based conflict, which began in the 1950s as an ideological struggle chal-lenging the rights of the Nigerian state over the resources of the region and the basis for the distribution of the oil-generating wealth, later became existentialist due to negligence on the part of the oil companies, decline in derivation revenue, and environmental devaluation from oil pollution (Oko-nofua 2016). Unlike the earlier resistance that was intellectually led targeting the state and multinational oil companies, the later agitation had as its front burner militia and cult groups whose targets were not limited to foreign companies and the Nigerian state, but other groups and persons perceived as threats to their interests. In response to their modes of operation which include: pipeline van-dalism, bunkering activities, kidnapping of expatriate oil workers, and a host of so many others, the Nigerian government resorted to military measures. Rather than quelling the crisis, militarization turned the region into what Ikelegbe and Umukoro (2016) call ‘a melting pot of violence and insurgency’ — a development that drastically affected the Nigerian economy, particularly in the second half of the first decade of the Twenty-First Century. Realizing that excessive force was ineffectual in engendering the clement environment needed for oil exploration in the region, the government, under President Umaru Musa Yar Adua, charted a new course for peace by adopting the Disarmament, Demobilisation, and Disintegration (DDR) mode of peace-building, hence, the Niger Delta Amnesty Program (NDAP) also known as the Presidential Amnesty Programme (PAP). NDAP was loudly acclaimed for having reduced, significantly, violence in the region (Ajibola 2015).
Topic:
Poverty, Women, Armed Conflict, and Amnesty
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Niger Delta

175. Nigeria's Oil Complex: The Tragedy of the Commons

Author:
Ekpotuatin Charles Ariye and Green Kevwe Abenabe
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Nigeria, often referred to as the “Giant of Africa,” has long been a focal point of global attention due to its vast reserves of oil and natural gas. The nation’s oil complex is not only a source of significant wealth and eco-nomic potential but also a complex web of challenges and controversies. At the core of this multifaceted issue lies a concept deeply ingrained in environ-mental and resource management literature: the tragedy of the commons. The tragedy of the commons is a situation in which a group of individuals, acting in their own self-interest, behaves contrary to the collective good by depleting or degrading a shared resource through their cumulative actions. This can happen because there is an incentive for each individual to consume the resource as much as possible, even though this will harm the group in the long run. The tragedy of the commons is a challenge that is faced in many parts of the world, including the Niger Delta. The Niger Delta is a region of Nigeria that is rich in oil and gas resources. However, the region is also home to a large number of people who live in poverty, environmental degradation and conflicts. This has led to a situation where many people in the Niger Delta are exploiting the region’s natural resources in order to survive, even though this is harming the environment and the long-term interests of the region.This research delves into the intricate dynamics of Nigeria’s oil industry, aiming to uncover the extent to which the tragedy of the commons phenomenon is at play in this critical sector. By examining the historical, political, economic, environmental, and social dimensions of Nigeria’s oil complex, this study seeks to shed light on the sustainability and governance challenges facing one of the world’s most oil-rich nations.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

176. The Amalgamation of 1914 and the Nigerian Civil War: The Burden of Blame

Author:
Abimbola Oyarinu
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Some pundits and scholars have identified Lord Lugard’s amalgama-tion of northern and southern Nigeria as a remote cause of the Nigerian Civil War. The origins of this civil war have been linked to the 1914 amalgamation of Southern Nigeria and Northern Nigeria by the British government (Uche 2008, 114). Colonial legacy has been blamed for the intermittent crises that rocked independent Africa (Taylor 2018, 27). While scholars like Uche (2008), Falola & Heaton (2018), Doron (2022) have exaggerated the role colonial poli-cies played in the outbreak of the Nigerian Civil War, colonial policies cannot be completely exonerated from the underdevelopment and internal strifes in most post-independent African states. In understanding colonial policies’ role in Africa, the Nigerian Civil War will be examined to substantiate the viewpoint of two popular schools of thought. On one side of the pendulum — Bernhard et al. (2004), Roger (2022), Thompson & Fernandes (2020) argue that British colonial legacies are not responsible for the crises and civil wars in Africa. This group argues the view that Africa is going through a phase in its development that, like Europe in the 18th century, it is bound to fight wars. The other school blames the British policies for the wars in Africa. The Nigerian Civil War has been hinged on the colonial legacy of the British, the amalgamation of 1914, indirect rule, and the divide-and-rule policy, just to mention a few. None of these advanced arguments are totally correct. Like the interpretation of creationists, every kind of interpretation can find its promoters.
Topic:
Civil War, History, and Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

177. Sino-Mozambican Relationship and the Role of Megaprojects in Mozambique's Territorial Development

Author:
Robson Dias da Silva and Thaysa Cunha
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
China’s expanded and deeper involvement in the African continent has led to significant changes in the international order and enabled a new attractive alternative to foster economic growth in African countries. China was considered one of the largest trading partners, investors, and sponsors of African countries in the early 21st century (i.e., in the 2000s), particu-larly for countries located in Sub-Saharan Africa, such as Mozambique. The country was the largest investor in Mozambique in 2016; since the end of the civil war – which undermined the national infrastructure of the African country –, infrastructure mega-projects (such as the construction of bridges, roads, dams, airports, commercial establishments, and tourism) were built by Chinese companies and/or with funding and donations from the Chinese government. Furthermore, since colonial times, Mozambique and China have had a close commercial relationship, which included the supply and training of the Mozambican army, the provision of humanitarian aid, the granting of scholarships to Mozambican students, and the sending of doctors and tea-chers, as well as the development of technological centers in Mozambique.
Topic:
Development, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, and Megaprojects
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Mozambique

178. Socio-Economic Impact of the Modernized Nigerian Railway System by the Chinese

Author:
Olaoluwanike Comfort Ogunrinu and Lemuel Ekedegwa Odeh
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Railways in Nigeria date back to the colonial times when the Euro-peans constructed them to foster their economic engagement. After inde-pendence, the railway system in Nigeria almost nosedived not until 1995, which experienced the most efficient modernization attempt through Chinese support.Indeed, various interventions were made under the military regime to revamp the Nigerian Railway, yet none so far have been as impactful as the Chinese intervention. The 1995 China-Nigeria Railway deal, under General Sani Abacha, saw about 87 percent completion of the rehabilitation, which became a pointer in the subsequent years that China could be that foreign investor Nigeria needed in the modernization of the Railway. Through various administrations since 1999, China has become actively involved in the moder-nization of the railway, which has tremendously increased the patronage of the railway in Nigeria. Upsurge in the awareness of railway and high level of patronage has not only boosted economic activities along coastal regions but also had positive implications for development.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Colonialism, Modernization, Socioeconomics, and Railways
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Nigeria

179. Skimming the East African Community Regional Force in the Kivu: Another Test Case of 'African Solutions to African Problems'

Author:
Jean-Marie Kasonga Mbombo
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Regional integration is premised on the principle of subsidiarity enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations Organisation which empowers regional bodies to resolve conflicts in their jurisdictions (Chapter 8, Article 52). It implies cooperation among states sharing a geographic proximity. In Africa, such regional organisations include the Economic Community of West African Countries (ECOWAS), Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), Common Market for East Africa (COMESA), East African Community (EAC), and Southern African Development Community (SADC) to name but a few. However, the end of the Cold War witnessed the rise of intrastate conflicts worldwide, which many analysts associated with donor fatigue toward aid-dependent states (Thomas and Mazrui 1992; Bayart 2009; Bates 2008; Solomon 2015). These new wars of the 1990s were more pronounced in resource-rich countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kaldor 2006; Collier 2008). As a result, many economic communities established relevant protocols to boost regional integration and foster peace on the African continent: ECCAS Protocol of Peace and Security; ECOWAS Protocol relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peacekeeping, and Secu-rity (1999); SADC Protocol on Politics, Defence and Security (2001); EAC Protocol on Peace and Security (2013). Of particular interest in this paper is the East African Community (EAC). The leaders of newly independent countries of Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania first met in Kampala and agreed to revive the then British protecto-rate with the establishment of EAC on June 6, 1967. Ten years later, however, this noble initiative collapsed for several reasons, and at the end of the Cold War, the trio states revitalised it with the ratification of its Treaty on November 30, 1993. The following year, the Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLR) plunged into chaos as a result of the genocide in Rwanda. Many survivors of the Tutsi/Hutu saga sought refuge in neighbouring countries. In particular, the influx of Hutu refugees in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the ensuing manhunt of the Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Force quickly trans-formed refugee camps into slaughterhouses (Meredith 2006; Stearns 2011). Driven by economic interests in the mineral-rich Kivu provinces, invading troops from Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda engaged the loyalist forces and allies (Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe) in what became the African World War between 1996 and 2001, leaving behind a myriad of armed groups to fuel the war economy and terrorize local population (Coleman 2007; Bates 2008; Prunier 2009).
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Regional Integration, and East African Community (EAC)
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Tanzania, and East Africa

180. Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa: Can the African Union and Regional Organizations Defend and Consolidate Democracy?

Author:
Joshua O. Bolarinwa
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The military’s takeover of political power, irrespective of the methods adopted, represents a rejection of civilian authority (Gutteridge 1985). Since the conclusion of World War II, there have been instances where militaries across the globe have taken part in the removal of elected political leaders, dis-solution of democratic regimes, or establishment of autonomous operations within nominally democratic political systems. These actions have been car-ried out without the consent, oversight, and control of elected civilians. These actions are achieved through coups and other unconstitutional methods of altering the status quo (Kuehn 2017). In the pre-1990 era, military coups served as the predominant method for instigating government transitions in a significant number of African nations. Since the advent of post-colonial Africa, the continent has witnessed a cumulative total of 88 instances of successful coups. The initial coup d’état transpired in Egypt in July 1952, whereas instances of such political upheavals transpired in Guinea-Bissau and Mali in April and December of the year 2012, respectively. Based on the research authored by Issaka K. Souaré, Africa has had a total of 73 instances of military coups, as documented over some time. Out of the entire dataset, 63 occurrences were recorded before the year 1990, while the remaining 10 cases were reported after the ratification of the Lomé Declaration in July 2000 by the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), an organization that is since defunct (Souaré 2014).
Topic:
Democracy, Coup, African Union, Military, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:
Africa

181. Government, State, and National Wars in Africa

Author:
Nathaly Silva Xavier Schütz and Hernán Olmedo González
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
To what extent were internal wars in African countries after World War II conditioned by their limited levels of governmental entrenchment and statehood? This is the central issue guiding the following research, which focuses on African countries in the post-World War II period, a period in which the system of sovereign States — with its origins in modernity and formally in Europe with the Peace of Westphalia treaties of 1648 — reached the vast majority of the international system. To achieve this objective, the following article is structured as follows.The first section aims to present, in the first instance, empirical information about the relative weight that internal national wars had on the international system in general and in Africa in particular, followed by a presentation of the different propositions about the conditioning factors of this type of war in the international system and African States, and, finally, establish guiding hypotheses for the empirical research of the study. The second section describes the methodological project followed to test the hypo-theses defined in the first section. The third section presents the empirical results of the research and the data analysis. Finally, the article develops a conclusion that systematizes the main aspects of the study.
Topic:
Government, Sovereignty, War, State, and International System
Political Geography:
Africa

182. Atlantism Under Maintenance: A Review of the Brazil-Cape Verde Partnership During the Dilma Rousseff Administrations (2011-2016)

Author:
Tatiana Raquel Reis Silva and Leandro Chaves Batista
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
From a holistic perspective, Brazil’s foreign policy towards the African continent has historically been marked by moments of greater proximity and others of relative distance. Authors such as Barriviera (2016) and Costa (2015) claim that there’s been a downturn in Brazil-Africa relations since Dilma Rousseff became president. It is essential to situate the relations established between Brazil and the various African nations as a phenomenon integrated into the logic of South-South Cooperation (SSC), a segment of Internatio-nal Development Cooperation (IDC) that encompasses political, diplomatic and commercial ties between developing countries, guided by the principle of horizontality, with an emphasis on mutual benefits. With regard to the cooperation established with the archipelago of Cape Verde, it is important to note that it is supported by a basal document: the Basic Agreement on Scientific and Technical Cooperation, signed in 1977.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Dilma Rousseff
Political Geography:
Africa, Brazil, South America, and Cabo Verde

183. The Future of Japan-Africa Cooperation: TICAD

Author:
Habib Badawi
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Africa will remain relevant to Japan as a necessary means to achieve some of its long-term political, economic, and strategic goals. Additionally, Japan seeks to expand its relations with the continent. However, it is diffi-cult to view Japan’s participation in Africa as part of an integrated policy or a well-thought-out long-term strategy, but only as a set of goals and some of the tools and mechanisms used to achieve those goals. This is largely reflected in Japan’s failure to prioritize its economic and political interests in its relationship with Africa. While Japan views Africa primarily through an economic lens, it has other major political interests. As Japan strives to bolster the dynamism of its ongoing development, production, and trade through a manufacturing and trade strategy designed to adapt to circumstances and mitigate crises, the nation has concurrently hei-ghtened its ambition for strategic hotspots, including resources and wealth. This is evident in its keen interest in the African continent and the ongoing competition between European and American powers for control over it.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD)
Political Geography:
Africa, Japan, and Asia

184. The Challenges of Transhumance and Internal Security in Nigeria: Implications for Food Security in the South-South Geopolitical Zone

Author:
Endurance Nogiomwan Aigbe and Joseph Aihie
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Transhumance has induced a varying degree of internal conflict and insecurity in the Northern part of Nigeria and has consequently moved to the Southern part through the North-Central region. Across the country today, newspapers and media houses are awash with diverse stories of arson, kidnapping, indiscriminate shooting at unarmed farmers, and killings of different magnitudes. These dastardly acts are perpetrated primarily by uns-crupulous herdsmen or herdsmen militias who go about with guns and other sophisticated weapons (Aigbe and Akenzua 2020). Although cattle rustling and theft have not accentuated the process of reaching a truce between the clashing parties, the herdsmen, who are major aggressors in the conflict, have resorted to using gruesome means to unleash terror on civilian far-mers. The implication of this is that scores of casualties in terms of deaths are being recorded.
Topic:
Security, Food Security, Geopolitics, Violence, Herders, and Transhumance
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

185. Françafrique: Franco-African Relations and French Military Engagement in Post-Colonial Africa

Author:
Luqman Saka
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
France has had a long history of association and relationship with Africa, dating back to the 17th century. France’s first permanent and occupied territory was the settlement of Saint-Louis, also known as “Ndar”, in Wolof, the most prominent African language in Senegal. Following the Berlin agre-ement formalizing the partitioning of Africa, France consolidated its claims on territorial possessions at the coast of Senegal and other coastal areas and inland across West Africa and the Sahel. Much as France’s colonial posses-sions in Africa might have expanded after the partition, the Four Communes (Quatre Communes) — comprising Dakar, Goree, Rufisque, and Saint-Louis —, all in present-day Senegal, were special among colonial territories in Afrique Occidentale Française, AOF (French West Africa) (Bawa 2013). Indeed, for years, Saint-Louis was the administrative headquarters of both colonial Senegal and the adjoining colonial territory of Mauritania.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Colonialism, Post-Colonial, and Military Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and France

186. To Stay or to Go Back: The Cornelian Dilemma of the Burkinabe Diaspora in Ghana

Author:
Serge Noel Ouedraogo and Boubacar Sambare
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Ghana is a major destination for Burkina Faso migrants. Immigration towards Ghana emerged and flourished as a result of the combination of structural and cyclical causes. Political, economic and psycho-social reasons have various levels, governed the initiation and maintenance of migration from Burkina Faso to Ghana3. As a result, there is a large number of Burki-nabe diaspora living in Ghana. According to official sources in Burkina Faso, there are between 1.5 and 3 million of them. In recent years, Burkina Faso has adopted a national migration policy (known as the national migration strategy) and has created a ministry responsible for Burkinabe living abroad within its government structure, with the aim of protecting its diaspora, involving it more closely in the development of the country and encouraging voluntary returns.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Politics, Immigration, and Migrants
Political Geography:
Africa, Ghana, and Burkina Faso

187. Egyptian Foreign Policy Under al-Sisi Government: Paths to Diversification of Partnerships

Author:
Charles Pereira Pennaforte and Mateus José da Silva Santos
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The second half of 2023 was marked by an important process invol-ving Egyptian external action at the regional and global levels. In August, within the framework of the XV BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, the Afro--Arab country was among the six states formally invited to join the multila-teral initiative starting in 2024. The expansion of the emerging bloc, based on the possible presence of actors located in strategic regional spaces such as the Middle East and North Africa, has assumed importance in the face of the uncertainties that drive a complex scenario of hegemonic transition. For Cairo, such a measure represented, among other things, the consolidation of a process of diversification in its external partnerships, strengthening ties with new global actors (China and Russia), as well as other emerging powers.In the complex symbiosis between the search for preservation of autonomy and domestic security, as well as attempts to mobilize material resources aimed at confronting macroeconomic challenges and building a new development process (Hinnebusch and Shama 2014), such a move constitutes an important analytical window into the transformations that have occurred in Egypt’s foreign policy over the past years. Constituting, in the view of Gamal M. Selim (2020), the third major restructuring in Egypt’s history as a Republic since 1953, the perspectives on a regional and global repositioning of Cairo in the face of systemic and domestic dynamics involve a set of factors, such as the conciliation between a discourse of full resumption of external action after years of domestic instability following the fall of Hosni Mubarak (1981–2011) and the instrumentalization of its geostrategic position between Africa and the Arab World, in the midst of increasing external vulnerability.In this sense, this article analyzes the main domestic and systemic characteristics involved in the transformations of Egypt’s international inser-tion over the past two decades, considering the mediation between the pre-servation of traditional lines of external action and the consolidation of new partnerships, offering geopolitical and geoeconomic alternatives in the face of escalating global tensions. At the intersection of World-Systems Analysis (WSA) and theoretical aspects of Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA), this study evaluates Egypt’s potential to occupy a historical position of articulation between global and regional dynamics, considering its condition as a Bri-dge State between two continents. Through qualitative analysis, combining a review of specialized literature on contemporary Egypt and journalistic texts, a multilevel perspective is developed, seeking to answer the following questions: what is the nature of the process of diversifying Egypt’s external relations? How do contemporary macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges limit or provide opportunities for the production of an autonomous type of insertion by Cairo?This text is divided into three parts. First, the main theoretical-metho-dological assumptions guiding the development of this study are established. Then, an analysis of Egypt’s international insertion trajectory since the begin-ning of the military-led Republic in the 1950s is carried out. Finally, the main elements constituting the domestic and systemic environment surrounding external diversification efforts in recent years are highlighted.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Partnerships, Diversification, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

188. The COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Agreement in the Context of Implementation of the African Economic Community (AEC)

Author:
Almeida Zacarias Machava and Tomás Bernardo Chirindza
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
In 1963, at the time of the establishment of the Organization of African Unity (OAU), the idea of promoting cooperation among newly independent states as a strategy for economic transformation was evident. Consequently, it did not take long for the perspective of integrating national markets into a single regional market to become the dominant orientation. Such integration was designated as the African Economic Community (AEC) (Ferreira 2005).During the 28th OAU Summit in 1991, a “Magna Carta” for African economic integration was adopted, known as the Abuja Treaty, with the objec-tive of creating a continental economic community to be achieved by the end of a thirty-four-year period (by the year 2028), as stipulated in Articles 4 and 6 of the treaty establishing the AEC. The idea of transforming the OAU into the African Union (AU), giving it new features, along with the foreseeable adoption of an economic program for the continent — which later became the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) — could prove decisive in overcoming the barriers to regional economic integration. To promote the creation of the AEC, NEPAD aligns with the broader principles and objec-tives of the former (NEPAD 2001). It is suggested that regional integration efforts be carried out within the framework of the major existing Regional Economic Communities (RECs). From this perspective, each state should be linked to only one of these RECs, which differs significantly from the current situation. At present, there is an overlap of integration processes across the African continent, highlighted by one of its main challenges: the multiple memberships of a single state in more than one community.This issue, in itself, is identified by many authors as one of the main obstacles to the development of the integration process, which has hindered the establishment of the much-anticipated AEC. Reports from the AU and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa indicate that it is necessary to rationalize integration mechanisms in Africa (African Union 2007). A manifestation of the interest in rationalizing these mechanisms is the crea-tion of the Tripartite Free Trade Area (COMESA–EAC–SADC). The Tripartite Bloc has agreed on the harmonization of trade agreements among the three Regional Economic Communities, the joint implementation of interregional infrastructure programs, and institutional arrangements through which the three RECs would promote integration. The establishment of this bloc aligns with the visions of the African Union and the African Economic Community regarding regional integration. Its objective is for the three RECs to work towards achieving the implementation of the AEC.The approaches adopted in this article ultimately seek to answer the following question: How can the Tripartite Agreement enable Africa to effectively implement the African Economic Community? Answering this question is important as it clarifies that the establishment of the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) is one of the key projects aimed at addressing the issue of multiple memberships of states in different RECs, thereby accelera-ting the regional integration process and the effective implementation of the AEC. In turn, the implementation of the AEC will foster a strong continental economy and reduce external trade dependency. The pursuit of this answer will be conducted through a qualitative approach based on a hermeneutic exercise.
Topic:
Regional Economy, Economic Transformation, COMESA, and African Economic Community (AEC)
Political Geography:
Africa

189. Technological Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in Kenya

Author:
Naftaly Mose, Omonike Ige-Gbadeyan, and John Thomi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays a vital role in the economic development of countries by providing access to capital, technology, and managerial expertise (Asongu et al. 2018). In recent years, Kenya has appe-ared as a prominent destination for FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa, attracting investments across various sectors such as manufacturing, telecommunica-tions, finance, and infrastructure (Ideue 2018). The government of Kenya has actively pursued policies to encourage FDI inflows as a means to stimulate economic growth and foster technology development (Mungai 2021). Techno-logical innovation is the economic function through which new technologies are introduced into production and consumption. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) serves as a channel for technology transfer from multinational corpo-rations (MNCs) to domestic firms in Kenya (Kotey 2019). MNCs often bring advanced technologies, managerial expertise, and best practices, which can significantly enhance the technological capabilities and competitiveness of local industries (Zhang et al. 2019). Through joint ventures, licensing agre-ements, and collaborations with local partners, FDI facilitates the diffusion of knowledge and skills, thereby contributing to technology absorption and innovation in Kenya (Wanjere 2022).Moreover, various sectors in Kenya have experienced substantial tech-nological advancements driven by FDI (Odhiambo 2022). For instance, the telecommunications sector has witnessed significant investments from inter-national telecom companies, leading to the expansion of mobile networks, internet connectivity, and digital infrastructure (Chesula and Kilika 2020). This has not only improved access to communication services, but has also spurred innovation in mobile payments, e-commerce, and digital entrepre-neurship (Ndung’u 2018). Similarly, the manufacturing sector has benefi-ted from FDI through the introduction of new technologies and production methods, leading to increased efficiency, product diversification, and export competitiveness (Wei et al. 2020).
Topic:
Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Innovation, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

190. Russia's Strategic Pivot to Africa: Geopolitical Implications in a Multipolar World

Author:
Habib Badawi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The global geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant transfor-mation, with new power centers challenging the longstanding dominance of Western nations. Among these emerging players, Russia has increasingly sought to expand its influence beyond its traditional spheres of interest. In recent years, Moscow has undertaken a strategic pivot towards Africa, revi-ving historical ties and forging new partnerships across the continent. This renewed engagement comes at a critical juncture, as tensions between Russia and the West have escalated, particularly in the wake of the Ukraine conflict.The resurgence of Russian interest in Africa is not merely a tactical move but a strategic reorientation of foreign policy. As Abramova (2024) argues, this rapprochement is driven by long-term strategic considerations rather than short-term tactical gains. This shift reflects a broader reassess-ment of Russia’s global role and its aspirations to challenge the Western-do-minated international order.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, Strategic Interests, and International Order
Political Geography:
Africa and Russia

191. Mozambique: Violent Extremism and Terrorism in Cabo Delgado Province

Author:
Ercilio Neves Brandao Langa
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The paper analyzes the terrorism in the Cabo Delgado Province, in the north of Mozambique, aiming to understand the conflict, inspect the process of radicalization of young Mozambicans and verify its c causes using categories and typologies. Why has the province of Cabo Delgado become the newest epicenter of violent religious extremism and terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa? This is the question that guides the paper. The violent extremism and the terrorism pose significant challenges for the human security and the socioeconomic development of the African continent.
Topic:
Security, Development, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgado

192. THE ROLE OF REGIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS INSTITUTIONS IN TIMES OF ARMED CONFLICTS IN AFRICA

Author:
Ufuoma Veronica Awhefeada
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Armed conflict is a perennial problem that has plagued Africa for decades, resulting in flagrant human rights abuse. The central problem this paper seeks to address is identifying the laws establishing institutions and agencies for protecting human rights in Africa and examining how well-adapted these institutions are to protect human rights in times of armed conflict in Africa. This research employs the doctrinal research method, which entails an examination of the relevant primary sources of the law as laid down in the statutes and treaties and interpreted by the courts as well as secondary source materials, including journal articles, reports, and other relevant sources materials. It is contended that though human rights institutions were not established with the goal of interventions in times of armed conflict to protect human rights, they can be adapted to meet this challenge to stem the tide of gross human rights violations during armed conflicts. The paper concludes by recommending the expansion in the practice of the mandate of these human rights institutions to accommodate mechanisms for the protection of human rights in times of armed conflicts.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa

193. IMPROVING WOMEN’S EMPOWERMENT THROUGH DEVOLUTION IN KENYA: THE CASE OF NAIROBI AND KAKAMEGA COUNTIES

Author:
Sylvester Chisika and Chunho Yeom
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This study aimed to investigate the progress of women's empowerment through employment opportunities in Nairobi and Kakamega Counties in Kenya between 2013 and 2017. Despite the increasing policies that aim to mainstream social equity and equality, there is still a significant gap between policy commitments and practices. The study evaluated whether the implementation of devolved governance in the two counties has improved women's empowerment. The study's framework included an in-depth review of policy documents, official records, and reports from official websites to understand women's economic empowerment status in Nairobi and Kakamega. The study analyzed qualitative and quantitative data from County Integrated Development Plans and other secondary sources. Specifically, it examined compliance with the 30% gender rule, requiring women to hold at least 30% of all elective and appointive positions. The study found that Nairobi commands the largest share of formal sector wage employment in Kenya, and women's access to employment opportunities remains slightly lower than men in both counties. Despite implementing the 30% gender rule, the study revealed the need for more comprehensive policies that promote gender equality and women's economic empowerment in both Nairobi and Kakamega.
Topic:
Employment, Sustainable Development Goals, Representation, and Gender
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

194. CTC Sentinel: October/November 2023 Issue

Author:
Devorah Margolin, Matthew Levitt, Paul Cruickshank, Brian Dodwell, and Caroline Morgan
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
On October 7, Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis in the largest terror attack since 9/11, carrying out acts of brutality that matched, and even surpassed, the worst atrocities of the Islamic State. The resulting war in Gaza, the escalation in tensions across the Middle East, and the anger in Arab and Muslim communities over the large number of Palestinian civilians killed in the conflict so far have upended the international terror threat landscape, creating acute concern about reprisals, and given the attacks already seen in France and Belgium, raised the specter of a new global wave of Islamist terror. In our feature article, Devorah Margolin and Matthew Levitt write that “The brutal Hamas-led October 7 attack on Israeli communities near Gaza represented a tactical paradigm shift for the group.” They observe that “the group’s explicit targeted killing and kidnapping of civilians [on October 7] baldly contradicts Hamas’ articulated revised political strategy since it took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Ironically, Hamas’ sharp tactical shift only underscores that the group never abandoned its fundamental commitment to the creation of an Islamist state in all of what it considers historical Palestine and the destruction of Israel.” Global jihadi groups have been exploiting the conflict in Gaza to call for attacks. In our feature interview, EU Counter-Terrorism Coordinator Ilkka Salmi says that “these calls to attack or to engage in some terrorist activity spread extremely quickly on social media and that’s why they could have a rapid and serious impact on the security situation. It reminds me of the days back in 2014-2016 when Daesh propaganda was at its high peak. The situation in Israel, combined with that sort of propaganda, could change the security situation in the E.U. quite drastically.” Tore Hamming writes that “three factors are likely to determine the impact of the ongoing events on the trajectory of the terrorism threat in the West: the length of the war, the scale of Israel’s offensive in Gaza, and the degree of support from Western nations to Israel.” Erik Skare stresses that analysts need to holistically examine both what Hamas says and does to better understand the group. He writes: “October 7 likely signifies the victory of those in the movement who have grown frustrated with an excessive focus on politics, advocating instead for a renewed emphasis on violence to reach their long-term goals.” In our second interview, General (Retired) Stephen Townsend, who commanded AFRICOM until August 2022, warns about intensifying jihadi terrorist threats across Africa. He says that al-Qa`ida’s affiliates there are “probably the largest threat to U.S. interests in the region today. And as they gain capacity, they’ll broaden their picture to the region and globally, to include our homeland eventually, I think.” Finally, Asfandyar Mir examines the counterterrorism dilemmas facing the United States in Pakistan and Afghanistan. He writes: “Al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State are pivoting to exploit Hamas’ October 7 terrorist attack on Israel and the civilian harm in Israel’s military campaign in Gaza since … Policymakers should take seriously the risk of a surprise terrorist provocation from Afghanistan.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

195. CTC Sentinel: September 2023 Issue

Author:
Lorena Atiyas-Lvovsky, Eitan Azani, Michael Barak, Assaf Moghadam, and Christopher Faulkner
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Lorena Atiyas-Lvovsky, Eitan Azani, Michael Barak, and Assaf Moghadam find that “jihadi rhetoric is rarely translated into violent attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets … The relative dearth of successful operations, however, has not deterred global jihadi organizations from regularly leveraging the Palestinian issue for political gain, and in order to reinforce their stature as powerful actors in the Middle Eastern and global arenas. Despite jihadi lip service to the Palestinian cause, support for global jihad among Arab Israelis and Palestinians has remained relatively low. Physical and ideological barriers erected by Israel and the Jewish community have so far limited the capacity of global jihadi actors to operate against Israel and the Jewish community.” Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, and Marcel Plichta explore the future of the Wagner Group in Africa after the death of its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin. They write: “Wagner personnel in Africa appear poised to carry on their original missions given the importance of the continent to Russia’s broader strategic ambitions. Though the mercenary mutiny and Prigozhin’s death may lead clients to raise questions about what a continued partnership with Wagner means for relations with the Kremlin, Moscow has signaled a tolerance, if not need, for Wagner or a Wagner-like entity in Africa. Abandoning Wagner clients would severely undermine Russia’s influence on the continent.” Aaron Zelin and Devorah Margolin explore the Islamic State’s shadow governance in eastern Syria since the group lost its last piece of territory in the country in 2019. They write: “While it is true that the organization’s insurgency has been degraded in recent years, only focusing on the Islamic State’s attack claims and propaganda misses an important trend happening at the local level: … the Islamic State has continued attempts to govern as shadow actors in eastern Syria.” They warn that thanks to these efforts, “even if it sounds far-fetched now, a reasonable worst-case scenario is that the Islamic State could rapidly take advantage of a changed local context to attempt to carve out a small statelet in eastern Syria again.”
Topic:
Non State Actors, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Jihad, Wagner Group, Jewish community, Private Military Companies (PMCs), and Yevgeny Prigozhin
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

196. CTC Sentinel: April 2023 Issue

Author:
Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, Marcel Plichta, Paul Cruickshank, and Lucas Webber
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The late General Wayne A. Downing, a former distinguished chair of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, used to tell his colleagues at the Center, “Who thinks wins.” In this month’s feature article, Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, and Marcel Plichta argue that smarter counterterrorism in the Sahel, and across sub-Saharan Africa, can pay big dividends for the United States on the field of great power competition. They write that “the United States is at a critical juncture as it looks to adapt its counterterrorism mission. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Sahel region of Africa, where for the past decade, the United States has relied on France to serve as the counterterrorism lead. Those days are over, at least for now, and the United States is left attempting to balance its counterterrorism efforts in the frame of great power competition. However, too often these two strategic objectives are cast as zero-sum. In reality, U.S. counterterrorism in the Sahel, if appropriately reassessed, designed, and implemented, can generate real wins for the United States as it seeks to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the region. Additionally, and most importantly, it can improve the prospects for stability and security for African states in desperate need of both.” Our interview is with two counterterrorism officials at the Catalan Police – Mossos d’Esquadra: Inspector Lluis Paradell Fernandez, head of the Central Analysis Unit, Intelligence and Counterterrorism Service, and Deputy Inspector Xavier Cortés Camacho, head of the Counterterrorism Central Area. They discuss lessons learned as a result of the 2017 Islamic State-inspired attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils, the evolving threats Catalonia faces, and the importance of “a joined-up effort in working to prevent violent extremism.” Lucas Webber and Daniele Garofalo write that “the Islamic State’s leadership and central propaganda apparatus have been pushing to boost the Somalia branch’s profile, while pro-Islamic State-Somalia groups have been producing media content to help the movement’s message reach Somali, Amharic, Oromo, and Swahili speakers to boost fundraising, recruitment, and violent incitement efforts as well as to grow grassroot support in regions populated by these ethnolinguistic communities.” They argue that “these developments could have regional security implications if the Islamic State is able to strengthen the Somalia branch using these means. Bolstered transnational connections could enable violent incitement and attacks directed into neighboring countries.” Nodirbek Soliev examines digital terror financing by central Asian jihadis. He writes that “their online financing efforts tend to involve three stages. The first is the dissemination of fundraising propaganda and contacting prospective donors via online public accounts. The second is communication via encrypted messaging apps to identify a suitable mode of transaction and to provide security protocols. The third is the transaction itself. Understanding these mechanisms can help enhance relevant countries’ response strategies against terrorism financing risks.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Spain, North America, Somalia, Sahel, and United States of America

197. CTC Sentinel: March 2023 Issue

Author:
Emilia Columbo, Kristina Hummel, Madeleine Biscaichipy, Alexander Ritzmann, and Francesco Marone
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This month’s feature article focuses on the challenge posed by the evolving Islamic State insurgency in Mozambique. Emilia Columbo writes: “The deployment of regional military and police forces to Cabo Delgado Province in northern Mozambique to assist the Mozambican government against what was then a growing jihadi insurgency nearly two years ago has introduced new dynamics into the conflict, expanding the insurgency’s presence in the region and increasing the importance of the information space as each side works to persuade its constituencies that the conflict is proceeding in its favor.” She assesses that the sustainability of security gains along the coast “will depend largely on the government’s willingness to develop and implement a more balanced counterterrorism approach that addresses the underlying grievances driving this conflict.” Our interview is with Jessica White and Galen Lamphere-Englund, co-conveners of the Extremism and Gaming Research Network, which started a little over two years ago as a practitioner- and researcher-led initiative to try and unpack concerning developments in the online space. Alexander Ritzmann writes that “the alleged plot against the German government by the Reichsbürger group Patriotic Union, whose key members were arrested on December 7, 2022, is best understood as a thwarted, possible early-stage terrorist plot, rather than a preempted imminent violent coup attempt. The Reichsbürger, who are comprised of different groups and networks, claim that the German state of today does not legally exist. Many Reichsbürger ascribe to a version of the anti-Semitic ‘New World Order,’ others believe in ‘QAnon.’” He notes that “although the vast majority of Reichsbürger are neither considered violent nor right-wing extremists by German security agencies, the threat posed by a minority of violent and extremist Reichsbürger persists, with German security agencies continuing to thwart alleged violent activity linked to different Reichsbürger groups.” Francesco Marone examines how an ongoing hunger strike by the imprisoned insurrectionary anarchist terrorist Alfredo Cospito has amplified the threat in and beyond Italy posed by “a transnational extremist tendency that promotes ‘self-organized’ illegal and violent actions, even against people.”
Topic:
Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Italy, and Mozambique

198. CTC Sentinel: January 2023 Issue

Author:
Heni Nsaibia, Caleb Weiss, Brian Dodwell, and Stig Jarle Hansen
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This issue focuses on Africa, the current epicenter of global jihadi terror. On January 18, 2023, the military junta in Burkina Faso demanded that France withdraw its troops from the country within a month, raising concerns the regime in Ouagadougou may be set to follow Mali in hiring the Wagner Group to help contain the worsening jihadi threat to their country. In the feature article, Héni Nsaibia and Caleb Weiss write that “there seems to be a very significant probability that the military government in Burkina Faso will indeed hire Wagner in the near future.” They assess that a future potential Wagner deployment to Burkina Faso would entrench Russian influence in the region, complicate Western policy in West Africa, and “likely result in a further upsurge in jihadi violence in Burkina Faso given the fact that jihadi attacks, perpetrated by both JNIM and the Islamic State, have increased dramatically across Mali since Wagner’s deployment there just over a year ago.” In our interview, Brigadier General Rose Keravuori, the Deputy Director of Intelligence at the United States Africa Command, observes that “for al-Qa`ida and ISIS, the most operationally active and financially lucrative affiliates are on the African continent.” She warns that Islamic State groups are looking to grow in southern and central Africa and that in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, the al-Qa`ida affiliate JNIM “has grown exponentially, so much so that the littoral countries of Ghana, Togo, and Benin view it as an existential threat.” Stig Jarle Hansen writes that “there are reasons to be optimistic that the current Somali offensive against al-Shabaab could enduringly weaken the group. The operations have gained momentum and demonstrated that the Somali army has made large improvements over the last decade. The use of local clan militias as well as U.S. and Turkish drone support have acted as force multipliers, and the Somali government is finally making a concerted effort to go after al-Shabaab’s income generation.” He argues that “what will be key is to erode al-Shabaab’s ability to infiltrate government-controlled areas and to govern, tax, and implement ‘justice’ in these areas. In the past, this has been crucial to al-Shabaab resilience and income. Accordingly, there needs to be more focus on a ‘clear and hold’ strategy rather than just ‘search and destroy.’”
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Jihad, Al Shabaab, and Wagner Group
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and Burkina Faso

199. The Guinea Worm, President Carter and Me: A Journey Through Health Diplomacy

Author:
Lisa Rotondo
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
In September 2001, just days before 9/11, I arrived in Pissila, Burkina Faso for my Peace Corps assignment. I was eager to get to work helping my new home community do surveillance for a neglected tropical disease (NTD) called dracunculiasis, or Guinea worm disease. As a Peace Corps Volunteer in rural Burkina Faso, I biked from village to village, asking community members if they were aware of anyone with Guinea worm disease, an infection that has impacted both humans and animals since ancient times. Thanks, in part, to the work of volunteers before me, I never actually saw a person with Guinea worm disease during my two years as a volunteer. Burkina Faso was on the brink of eliminating the disease, and I remember thinking that the children in my community would never know the word for Guinea worm in their language, Moorè; it would not be in their vocabulary because they would never have to worry about it. I’ve reflected on that more than once during my career in public health. Knowing that we are truly making diseases history has been the drive underlying my efforts for the last two decades.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Health, Memoir, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Africa, United States of America, and Burkina Faso

200. Coming to Grips with Poverty in Africa

Author:
Mark Wentling
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Reducing poverty has been at the heart of U.S. foreign assistance in dozens of low-income countries for more than a half-century. Despite U.S. foreign policy objectives, much work, and hundreds of billions of assistance dollars expended, the poorest of the poor have not advanced. While some low-income countries have made some small progress, after decades of aid most are still in the bottom ranks of absolute poverty. All the countries in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category have more poor people than ever before. Thirty-seven of forty-seven of these LDC countries are in Africa. Although a handful of countries have graduated from LDC status, this disturbing ranking remains basically unchanged since the LDC list was established by the UN General Assembly in 1971. This unchanging list of extremely poor countries tells us that a better understanding of poverty is needed, especially in Africa, to make U.S assistance programs more effective. While Asian countries have made remarkable progress over the past 50 years in reducing the number of poor, the absolute number in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to grow. People in SSA are more than twice as likely to live in poverty than in South Asia, the next poorest region in the world. The World Bank reported there were 284 million Africans living in extreme poverty in 1990; this number had risen to 433 million in 2018 and continues to rise. The percentage of the population living in poverty in SSA is slowly decreasing, but this decline is overcome by population growth. The COVID-19 pandemic pushed tens of millions of people below the poverty line of $1.90 per day. Climate change, rising crime, inflation, and violent conflict are forcing many more millions below this line. Governments that are unable to provide basic services and struggle to cope with high levels of national debt compound the problem. The 2030 UN targets for eradicating poverty will not be met.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Poverty, Foreign Aid, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa