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702. Technical Election Assessment Mission in Serbia
- Author:
- Alexandra Brown, Andrew Rogan, Ashley Law, Cirilo Marinkovic, Fernanda Buril, Gina Chirillo, Jovana Strahinic, Nermin Nisic, Magnus Ohman, Rebecca Aaberg, Staffan Darnolf, and Steven Canham
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems
- Abstract:
- Based on international standards and good practices adopted worldwide, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) applies its Technical Election Assessment Mission (TEAM) methodology to assess electoral environments. Using the TEAM model in Serbia, IFES assessed core areas of the electoral process — analyzing both the legal and regulatory framework and implementation practices — to provide technical support and recommendations for stakeholders and interested parties to strengthen electoral transparency and integrity. The report’s analysis and recommendations are designed to be addressed through the election reform process and relevant institutions, but also with tailored interventions facilitated by IFES, such as training, capacity building, civic awareness-raising and advocacy.
- Topic:
- Elections, Election watch, Voting, and Legal Sector
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Serbia
703. Turks and Caicos Islands House of Assembly Elections: Technical Observation and Assessment Report
- Author:
- Anthony Banbury
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems
- Abstract:
- The Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) held elections for the House of Assembly on February 19, 2021. At the invitation of the TCI governor and funded by the UK government, an independent team of elections experts from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) conducted an in-person technical observation and assessment. The IFES mission employed a modified version of IFES’ Technical Election Assessment Methodology, which allows for a broader assessment of the electoral process and context.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Voting, Election Observation, and Political Participation
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, North America, and Turks and Caicos Islands
704. Regional Solutions to Regional Challenges in the Middle East?
- Author:
- Brandon Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Members of two rival camps in the Sunni Middle East — Qatar and Turkey on one side, and Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, on the other — have continued a sustained diplomatic effort at reconciliation that began early this year. In a sign of the delicate progress between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors, on September 17, the Saudi Gazette tweeted a picture of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman standing beside Qatari Emir Tamim Al Thani and Emirati Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed, all dressed informally, in the Egyptian resort city of Sharm al-Sheikh. More recently, on November 24, Mohammed bin Zayed, the Crown Prince of the UAE, met in Ankara with Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a dramatic reversal of what had appeared to be a hostile rivalry.[1] The visit resulted in the Emiratis establishing a $10 billion fund for investment in Turkey.[2]
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Sectarianism, Regional Integration, Sunni, and Shiism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates
705. Napoleon’s Bicentenary
- Author:
- Stephane Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In 2021, events, expositions, ceremonies, and books commemorated 200 years since the death of Napoleon Bonaparte. Bonaparte himself spent one year in Egypt and what was then the Syrian vilayet (province) of the Ottoman Empire, winning remarkable victories on the battlefield, but failing in the end to achieve his goals and eventually returning to France.
- Topic:
- Imperialism, History, and Collective Memory
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Arab Countries, North Africa, and Egypt
706. IS CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVING GLOBAL CONFLICT?
- Author:
- Nina von Uexkull and Halvard Buhaug
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- While former US President Donald Trump frequently denied man-made climate change, the Biden administration has pledged to make climate change a priority, including for national security. In line with years of thinking within the defense sector, the Biden-Harris team refers to climate change as a “threat multiplier,” pointing to risks of regional instability and resource competition driven by worsening environmental conditions. This perspective also aligns with the initiatives of other countries that have pushed climate security in the UN Security Council and other international bodies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Climate Change, International Security, Conflict, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
707. The United States at a Crossroads: The Biden Administration, Human Rights and Atrocity Prevention
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- After four dark years during which President Donald Trump systematically weakened the United States’ commitment to multilateralism, international law and universal human rights, the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect congratulates President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris on their impending inauguration. As an international civil society organization with its headquarters in New York, we join human rights defenders both here and abroad who view this historic moment with relief and hope. President Biden and Vice President Harris will be sworn in at a time of unprecedented crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused tremendous suffering around the world and killed over 380,000 Americans. Globally, more than 80.3 million people are also currently displaced by conflict, persecution and atrocities, the highest number since the Second World War. In all too many countries the laws, institutions and individuals who defend human rights appear to be under threat. This includes the United States, where disturbing political developments over the last four years led to the proliferation of online hate speech, the criminalization of asylum seekers and a prejudicial “Muslim Ban” aimed at refugees.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Elections, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocities, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
708. Can and Will Germany Be a Viable Partner in a U.S. “Pushback” Strategy Towards Russia?
- Author:
- Hannes Adomeit
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Joe Biden, as presidential candidate, is on record as having stated that “the biggest threat to America right now in terms of breaking up our − our security and our alliances − is Russia.” As president, he asserted, “the days of the United States rolling over in the face of Russia’s aggressive actions are over.” The first months of his tenure in office have given some substance to such claims and confirmed that the new administration aims at containing and counteracting Russian malign behavior and to impose costs so as to affect the Kremlin’s risk calculus. Can Germany − and most likely will it − be a viable partner in such a U.S. strategy?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Leadership, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America
709. PTSS Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest Workshop: The Impact of the COVID–19 Pandemic on Terrorism and Counterterrorism
- Author:
- James K. Wither
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper presents the findings of a George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) Counterterrorism (CT) Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest (COI) workshop held on January 20-21, 2021. The objectives of the workshop were as follows: Analyze the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on terrorism and CT nationally and internationally. Identify the extent to which the pandemic has created vulnerabilities that terrorists have been able to exploit to mount attacks and/or attract new recruits. Explore the extent to which the pandemic might make societies more vulnerable to terrorism and irregular warfare in the longer term and the reasons why this could happen. Formulate policy recommendations for the global counterterrorism community from the perspective of GCMC CT Alumni. The virtual workshop was structured around four panels, each with two alumni panelists with practical or academic expertise on the selected topics. GCMC CT faculty acted as panel moderators. The panels examined the impact of the pandemic on terrorist financing as well as terrorism and CT in the Middle East, the Americas, and the Sahel in Africa. Thirty selected global alumni took part in the workshop and raised additional questions and comments after the formal panel sessions. Initially, planning for the COI took place in spring 2020, when it was wrongly assumed that the worst of the pandemic would be over by 2021 and assessments of its impact would, therefore, be relatively conclusive. However, given the continued threat posed by COVID-19, with countries around the world still suffering from its impact, the assessments below must be regarded as interim. Therefore, the workshop made no specific policy recommendations. Marshall Center CT faculty members, along with their colleagues at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia–Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), have researched the impact of the pandemic on terrorism since March 2020.1 The COI followed a survey of alumni on the impact of the pandemic on terrorism and CT conducted in October 2020.2 Over four hundred military and civilian counterterrorism practitioners responded to the survey from Europe, North and South America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Unsurprisingly, many of the conclusions from the recent workshop are similar to impact statements in the earlier survey.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
710. US Credibility and the Afghanistan Withdrawal
- Author:
- Riccardo Perissich
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Whatever one may think of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, a decision that President Biden shared with his predecessor Donald Trump, most observers on the two sides of the Atlantic seem to agree that both the planning and the execution phases of the withdrawal were botched. Europeans in particular, including the ever-faithful US allies in the UK, complain about not having been adequately consulted or involved in the decision and execution of the withdrawal. Whatever the merits of this debate, it has inevitably led to fundamental questions about US foreign policy and its future trajectories. After four years of Trump, many in Europe are legitimately concerned. Old and by now familiar academic debates about Washington’s priorities, credibility and handling of global affairs have resurfaced as a result. The underlining question is: to what foreign policy tribe does Biden belong? Is he an optimist or a pessimist? A realist or an idealist? A liberal internationalist or a nationalist? Is he a Wilson or a Roosevelt and if the answer leans towards latter, which of the two Roosevelts’ are we referring to?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States of America
711. Twenty Years Later: Why 9/11 Has Not Been a Second Pearl Harbor
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In the immediate aftermath of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, an overwhelming majority of commentators drew a parallel with the surprise blitz by Imperial Japan against the US Pacific fleet in Hawaii’s Bay of Pearl Harbor, on 7 December 1941. The comparison rested on two pillars. The first had its roots in historical analogy and symbolic impact. The Pearl Harbor attack was the closest precedent of an aggression against the United States on its soil. The fact that the United States was caught by surprise, combined with the considerable toll in human lives exacted by the aggressors (more than two thousand people died in Pearl Harbor and almost three thousand on 9/11), lent legitimacy to such comparison. As all US citizens at the time would forever recall what they were doing when news of the Pearl Harbor attack came through, so do all US citizens (and not only) remember what they were busy with when the image of the Twin Towers wrapped in flames appeared on TV screens on that Tuesday back in 2001. The second reasoning underlying the parallel between Pearl Harbor and 9/11 concerned the impact on US domestic politics and, consequently, foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, History, and 9/11
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, North America, and United States of America
712. An International Digital Yuan: (Vane) Ambitions, (Excessive) Alarmism and (Pragmatic) Expectations
- Author:
- Nicola Bilotta
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Days after the European Central Bank (ECB) publicly disclosed its roadmap for a digital euro project on 24 July, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) published a white paper describing the advancements of its plan for a digital yuan (e-CNY). While the EU roadmap outlines an investigation phase which will end in five years, China has already introduced several pilot experiments for its e-CNY. In June 2021, the e-CNY was employed in more than 70.7 million transactions for a value of 34.5 billion yuan by 20.8 million retail users and 3.5 million corporate users.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Political Economy, Governance, Finance, Currency, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
713. The World After the Pandemic: European Unity and the Challenge of Reviving Multilateralism
- Author:
- Sonia Bianconi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Covid-19 has dramatically re-focussed the world’s attention on the adverse implications of globalisation. Coming on the heels of the 2008 financial crisis, the global pandemic has further weakened the image and credibility of the United States, causing the West to lose appeal compared to a more authoritarian but equally efficient East.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Politics, European Union, Multilateralism, Institutions, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America
714. Covid-19 and the International Liberal Order: Goodbye “Global”, Hello “Regional”?
- Author:
- Irene Paviotti
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Covid-19 crisis is broadly recognised as a watershed moment in world history, prompting a radical rethink of social norms and accelerating a number of pre-existing geopolitical trends. When it comes to globalisation and multilateralism, two defining features of the current international order, the pandemic has accelerated a move towards regionalism on the one hand and clearly exposed the shortcomings of an unequal multilateral system on the other.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Health, Political Economy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
715. Europe and Covid-19: Never Waste a Good Crisis
- Author:
- Chiara Andreazza
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- "Democracy is based on the promise of social mobility and improvement, a path that leads to increasing well-being, particularly for the middle class. If incomes fall and inequalities sharpen, then democracies collapse.” Italian philosopher, Massimo Cacciari, used these words to describe the present crisis that western liberal democracies are facing. Years have passed since the first signs of citizen distrust towards social institutions and governing elites became apparent. Such sentiments have led to an increase in populist politics and authoritarian tendencies, characterised by charming leaders and strongman politics, which in turn have challenged certain elements of liberal democracy.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Democracy, Legitimacy, Institutions, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
716. Covid-19 and the Multilateral System: What Role for the EU?
- Author:
- Roberto Baccarini
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Covid-19 represents a critical juncture for the European Union. The crisis catalysed the weakening of the post-Cold War international order and the emergence of a multipolar world, presenting Europe with significant, even existential challenges.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Multilateralism, Institutions, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
717. G20, COP26 and the Climate Emergency: Insights from Italian Public Opinion
- Author:
- Margherita Bianchi and Giulia Gozzini
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Climate change is increasingly understood as the defining challenge of our times. Multiple polls underscore the extent to which citizens and government elites are united in identifying the climate emergency as the primary threat to human wellbeing and development. While prescriptions to tackle the climate crisis may diverge, the pandemic has increased the imperative to make human development and economic growth more responsive to the environment and natural ecosystems. Amidst promises to “build back better” in the wake of Covid-19, much anticipation is understandably being directed at the COP26 summit in Glasgow, that began on 1 November, one day after the conclusion of the G20 Rome summit.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Energy Policy, United Nations, Natural Resources, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
718. Europe's Polish Question
- Author:
- Riccardo Perissich
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- European history has on several occasions been confronted with a “Polish question”. It did not always end well, especially for Poland. This time around, the issue that has placed the Polish government led by the populist Law and Justice party (PiS), the institutions of the EU and most of its member states at loggerheads is unlikely to end in bloodshed, but it nevertheless remains dangerous. The Commission and the European Court of Justice (ECJ) have established that recent reforms to the Polish judiciary undermine the independence of the courts and the principle of a separation of powers; among them the creation of a disciplinary body under political control that can censure Polish judges. The Polish Supreme Court, conversely, has responded that such ruling is incompatible with the country’s constitution. What makes the question particularly complicated is that it is tri-dimensional.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Regional Integration, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
719. Crowdsourcing for Climate-Smart Agriculture: Insights from the Bolivian Andes
- Author:
- Rafael Lindemann Taborga
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The vast majority of family and smallholder farmers in developing countries do not have access to locally relevant weather forecasts, undermining their capacity to adapt to climate change. Anticipating climate related risks reduces farmers’ vulnerability as they can plan ahead and limit the damage caused by storms, extreme temperatures, pests and other weather-related events. A recent pilot experiment in the Bolivian Andes – run by a consortium of international and national non-profit organisations, research centres and Bolivia’s productive development bank – found that encouraging smallholder farmers to crowdsource agro-climatic information enhances the accuracy of local weather forecasts, increasing their adoption of climate-smart practices. As a cost-effective system, crowdsourcing can be harnessed to broaden the coverage of agro-climatic information services, while enhancing their local relevance by responding to actual needs. The basic principle of crowdsourcing is that of outsourcing a task traditionally performed by a designated agent to individuals, groups of people or a platform that share a common goal. Encouraging smallholder farmers to utilise technology to send reports from their farmlands fosters a sense of ownership and collaboration, thereby favouring forms of collective knowledge production and sharing.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Bolivia and United States of America
720. The Venezuelan Oil Industry Collapse: Economic, Social and Political Implications
- Author:
- Rafael Ramírez
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Venezuela’s hydrocarbons industry has completely collapsed. Seven years of mismanagement and political purges, the dismantling of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.’s (PDVSA) managerial structures and deviations in longstanding company policy implemented by the government of Nicolás Maduro since 2014 have undermined the sector and destabilised the national economy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Economy, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Venezuela, North America, and United States of America