Author: Simon Henderson / Publication Year: within 25 Years

1. Biden Sees Oil as Key to His Visit, but Does Riyadh Agree?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The administration has signaled its intentions for the trip well in advance, but the realities of Saudi oil capacity and global energy forecasts should temper any U.S. expectations of a quick fix. The centrality of energy security to America’s historical relationship with Saudi Arabia is under strain. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait thirty-two years ago and threatened nearby Saudi oil fields, King Fahd ignored the pleas of cautious senior princes who wanted a delay to discuss the issue and instead requested Washington’s immediate help—which he quickly received in the form of half a million U.S. troops and a multinational force. It was a perfect illustration of the longstanding strategic understanding between the two governments: Saudi Arabia will supply the world with oil, and the United States will defend the House of Saud.
Topic:: Economics, Oil, Joe Biden, and Energy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

2. Power to the People? Scrutinizing the U.S.-Arab Effort to Supply Energy to Lebanon via Syria

Author:: Katherine Bauer, Ben Fishman, Hanin Ghaddar, Simon Henderson, David Schenker, and Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Residents of the beleaguered country desperately need electricity, but a U.S.-Arab scheme carries complications that could benefit Syria's Assad regime. The Lebanese people have endured painful reductions in electricity over the last two years, and now the lights are on for just hours a day. To address this dire situation—and counter a Hezbollah initiative to import Iranian energy products to Lebanon—the United States and its Arab partners are pursuing a complex two-part scheme, with the first involving excess Jordanian electricity and the second, although not yet public, relying on natural gas originating in Egypt and Israel. But both components would involve energy transiting Syria and potentially benefiting the Assad regime, which is under heavy U.S. and international sanctions for its wartime abuses. In this timely Policy Note—richly illustrated with maps—former U.S. State Department senior advisor and NSC director Andrew J. Tabler and his Washington Institute coauthors disentangle the current U.S.-Arab proposal, including how it might interact with the anti-Assad sanctions regime. They also offer alternative avenues that avoid Syria altogether, such as using offshore LNG platforms and delivering to Lebanon sustainable energy systems, from solar panels to geothermal technology.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Reform, Democracy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

3. Implications of the Saudi Corruption Arrests

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The latest crackdown appears to have targeted senior defense and interior officials, spurring speculation that they are linked to previously detained princes rumored to be plotting a coup. On March 15, Saudi Arabia announced that 298 individuals have been arrested for bribery, embezzlement, wasting public funds, and other corruption offenses. Although none of the detainees has been named, they reportedly include high-ranking officers in the Defense and Interior Ministries, adding to rumors that recent royal crackdowns may be related to a planned coup.
Topic:: Corruption, Reform, Domestic Politics, and Monarchy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

4. Qatar Without Tamim Sudden Succession Essay Series

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Qatar's break with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors remains unresolved, and rumors circulate of bids to replace Tamim bin Khalifa al-Thani, Qatar’s forty-year-old emir, with one of his historically marginalized rivals. The Washington Institute has been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader's departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes. This essay, twelfth in the series, explores Qatar, known historically as a refuge for “banished leaders, fleeing criminals, exiled religious figures, and other waifs and strays.” But the Gulf nation’s neighbors have long bridled at its independent streak, as shown by the 2017 rift with Saudi Arabia and three other regional states. The break—spurred by a perception of Qatari support for terrorism, closeness to Iran, and a range of other complaints—remains unresolved today, and rumors circulate of bids to replace Tamim bin Khalifa al-Thani, Qatar’s forty-year-old emir, with one of his historically marginalized rivals.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Qatar and Gulf Nations

5. Understanding the Saudi Aramco IPO

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: economically transform the kingdom. On November 3, Saudi Arabia formally announced plans for the partial selloff of its state-owned oil company, to begin sometime next month. The successor of the Arabian American Oil Company, originally established by U.S. firms, Saudi Aramco is easily described in superlatives. It is the largest oil producer in the world, with the lowest production costs, and has a reputation for being extremely well run, all of which have helped it become the most profitable company on the planet. Yet being situated in the Middle East, having key installations vulnerable to Iranian attack, and selling oil to countries increasingly concerned about climate change are hardly factors conducive to favorable long-term prospects. The kingdom simultaneously claims to be diversifying away from its dependence on oil, adding to the uncertainty about its approach.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Oil, and Business
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

6. Oman After Qaboos: A National and Regional Void

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The ailing Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said, now seventy-nine years old, has no children and no announced successor, with only an ambiguous mechanism in place for the family council to choose one. This study considers the most likely candidates to succeed the sultan, Oman’s domestic economic challenges, and whether the country’s neutral foreign policy can survive Qaboos’s passing.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Domestic Politics, and Succession
Political Geography:: Middle East, Oman, and Gulf Nations

7. Kuwait: A Changing System Under Stress

Author:: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen and Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Washington Institute has been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader's departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes. This essay, seventh in the series, discusses Kuwait, a small, oil-rich country surrounded by big neighbors with which relations have often been uneasy. Its leader, Emir Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, is ninety years old and apparently in fragile health. His immediate heir, half-brother Nawaf, is not much younger at eighty-two. More important, perhaps, Nawaf lacks the current emir's adeptness as a diplomat. In a Gulf region experiencing sharp tensions, Sabah's exit will remove a much-needed node of stability. Whoever ultimately takes the helm will have a substantial legacy to uphold.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Succession, and Monarchy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

8. Rebuilding Alliances and Countering Threats in the Gulf

Author:: Lori Plotkin Boghardt and Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Trump administration has an opportunity to reset, tighten, and maximize America's strategic relations with the Gulf states. For the United States, expanded security cooperation and coordination could be a force multiplier in campaigns to achieve key policy goals, such as countering Iran's destabilizing policies and defeating the Islamic State. Gulf leaders have expressed optimism over the new administration's gestures, despite its "America First" rhetoric. But the administration also faces challenges, including those brought about by its own emphasis on "radical Islamic terrorism." This two-part Transition 2017 paper, featuring contributions by Gulf experts Lori Plotkin Boghardt and Simon Henderson, navigates the complex U.S.-Gulf relationship. The first essay provides an overview of its basic tenets, stressing the importance of rapport to bilateral ties and discussing key policy priorities. The second essay narrows the focus to the Washington-Riyadh link, the most important U.S. tie with the conservative Gulf. It analyzes differences in viewpoint, policy options, and some anticipated Saudi responses on the core issues of oil, terrorism, Iran, Yemen, Syria, Gulf allies, and the Sunni bloc.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

9. Nuclear Iran: A Glossary

Author:: Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Iran's nuclear program dates from the late 1950s. By the 1960s, the united states had supplied the iranians with a small research reactor. Later, the shah had ambitious plans to construct twenty-three nuclear power reactors, and initial orders were placed with west german and french companies. Iran also started to invest in nuclear fuel-cycle services, though was unable, due to u.s. Pressure, to obtain reprocessing or uranium enrichment plants. It did, however, invest in the eurodif enrichment plant in france and the roessing uranium mine in namibia, shareholdings it maintains today. When iran signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty in 1968 and ratified it in 1970, all its nuclear activities became subject to inspection by the international atomic energy agency (iaea).
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Namibia

10. Jordan's Energy Balancing Act

Author:: Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A deal to buy Israeli natural gas can help mitigate the kingdom's energy shortage and steer Amman away from problematic nuclear plans, but it risks stirring domestic opposition. In February, two private Jordanian firms signed a contract with a private U.S.-Israeli consortium to import natural gas from Israel's giant Tamar field, located under the bed of the Mediterranean Sea fifty miles offshore from Haifa. The Arab Potash Company and the Jordan Bromine Company -- both partially owned by the Jordanian government -- will pay Houston-based Noble Energy and its partners $500 million over the course of fifteen years to supply a power plant at Jordanian industrial facilities by the Dead Sea. At just $33 million per year, the deal is not financially significant, but it may set a huge precedent in terms of fostering regional economic cooperation and establishing a framework for Jordanian energy security. The political challenges are significant, however, particularly following the March 10 shooting of a Jordanian man at an Israeli-controlled West Bank crossing point.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

11. Nuclear Kingdom: Saudi Arabia's Atomic Ambitions

Author:: Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although Iran's nuclear potential will likely dominate talks between President Obama and King Abdullah on March 29, Riyadh's own nuclear plans should also be part of the discussion. A major probable consequence of Iran achieving a nuclear weapons capability is that Saudi Arabia will seek to match it. With President Obama currently rating the chances of diplomatic success as 50-50 and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei giving a "zero" probability, this weekend's U.S.-Saudi summit will be an opportunity to check whether Saudi planning can help the diplomacy rather than hinder it.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

12. Between ISIS and Iran: Bahrain Tweaks Washington

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Amid electoral boycotts and continued concerns about ISIS and Iran, King Hamad has reappointed a prime minister whom Washington regards as an impediment to political progress.
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Bahrain

13. Regional Nuclear Plans in the Aftermath of an Iran Deal

Author:: Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While the purpose of multilateral negotiations with Iran is to reduce proliferation concerns, successful talks may in fact accelerate nuclear plans in the Gulf states and Jordan.
Political Geography:: Iran and Jordan

14. Oman Ruler's Failing Health Could Affect U.S. Iran Policy

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The death of Sultan Qaboos with no clear successor would jeopardize U.S.-Iran diplomatic contacts, the latest of which will be the meeting tomorrow in Muscat between Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. On November 5, the Omani state television channel broadcast a video of seventy-three-year-old Sultan Qaboos bin Said, currently undergoing medical treatment in Germany. He greeted Omanis in anticipation of their national day, November 18, and expressed regret that he would not be back in Oman for the celebrations. No information has been given on what is wrong with the ruler but, though his voice was strong, he looked emaciated and frail. An unnamed diplomat in Muscat, the Omani capital, had been quoted in August as saying Qaboos has colon cancer.
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Germany, and Oman

15. Nuclear Iran: A Glossary of Terms

Author:: Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: At a time of hot debate over possible military action against Iran's nuclear program, the need for a clear understanding of the issues and the controversial science and technology behind them has never been more acute. Toward that end, scholars from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs have copublished an interactive online glossary of terms used in the discussion about Iran. The report was prepared by proliferation expert Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen, former deputy director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Covering the jargon and history behind IAEA inspections, centrifuge enrichment, basic nuclear physics, and early nuclear weapons development in Pakistan and the United States, the glossary provides an indispensable guide to an increasingly complex problem.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, and Islam
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Middle East

16. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula through the Framework of International Humanitarian Law

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: al Nakhlah
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: While Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has garnered significant media attention, its role in the Middle East raises legal issues that are not currently being explored. With AQAP having presences in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, questions arise as to which legal frameworks can be utilized: international humanitarian law, human rights law, or criminal law. This paper will discuss some of these issues, with a particular focus on international humanitarian law.
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

17. Saudi Arabia's Fears for Bahrain

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 16, Bahraini security forces used brute force to clear democracy protestors from Manama's Pearl Square, on orders from a regime seemingly undaunted by international media coverage and the near-instantaneous self-reporting of Twitter-generation demonstrators. Although the relatively small size of the crowds (compared to recent protests in Egypt and Tunisia) facilitated the crackdown, the action is best explained by the regime's long-held mindset regarding dissent. Specifically, the Bahraini ruling elite believe that any political challenge by the island's Shiite majority must be quickly suppressed -- a view backed by the royal family in neighboring Saudi Arabia and violently enforced in Bahrain despite significant Sunni participation in the protests. This Saudi factor, and the looming presence of Iran across the Persian Gulf, elevates the Bahrain crisis to a U.S. policy challenge on par with events in Egypt.
Topic:: Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Island, and Tunisia

18. 'The Last Bullet': Qadhafi and the Future of Libya

Author:: Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Following this weekend's widespread disturbances in Libya, Muammar Qadhafi could lose power within hours or days as his military units and security services crumble in the face of popular discontent. Alternatively, he could decide -- in the ominous words of his son Saif al-Islam -- to "fight to the last bullet," which suggests even more horrific levels of violence and anarchy. In a rambling television broadcast today, February 22, the colonel pledged to "die as a martyr."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Democratization
Political Geography:: Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa

19. Dubai: On the Front Line of U.S. Iran Policy

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Willingly or not, Dubai has been thrust onto the front line of diplomacy aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions and terrorism sponsorship. The January 20, 2010, assassination of Hamas gunrunner Mahmoud al-Mabhouh on its soil was a reminder of the emirate's longstanding trade and commercial links with Iran -- he was reportedly there to purchase Iranian rockets for Hamas units in Gaza. For years, U.S. authorities have been pressuring Dubai for more restrictions on Iranian trade passing through its ports, as well as increased controls on Iranians traveling to and living in the emirate. The ongoing Mabhouh investigation has shown that, given the requisite political will, Dubai has excellent surveillance capabilities and other attributes that could be used against Iran.
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Gaza, and Dubai

20. Too Little, Too Late? Nuclear Security and the Middle East

Author:: Simon Henderson, George Perkovich, and Gregory Schulte
Publication Date:: 04-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A year ago in Prague, President Obama warned that nuclear terrorism poses "the most immediate and extreme threat to global security." Accordingly, he vowed to lead an international effort to "secure all vulnerable nuclear materials around the world in four years." The Nuclear Security Summit is intended to advance that goal
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, and Vienna

21. The New British Government, the 'Special Relationship,' and the Middle East

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 6, Britain went to the polls to elect a new government, producing no clear result but forcing the resignation of Labor Party leader Gordon Brown. Within hours of taking over as prime minister, Conservative Party leader David Cameron had created a new body, a British national security council, whose first meeting focused on "discuss[ing] the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and review[ing] the terrorist threat to the UK." Apart from Britain's economic problems, these issues and Middle East policy in general will likely dominate the new government's agenda -- and its relations with Washington.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Terrorism, International Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, United Kingdom, Washington, and Middle East

22. Fighting al-Qaeda: The Role of Yemen's President Saleh

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Yemen's reemergence in the headlines as a crucial player in the fight against al-Qaeda raises questions about Washington's next steps. What sort of relationship will the Obama administration have with President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the longtime leader of what could be the world's next failed state? Saleh spoke with President Barack Obama by telephone on December 17, 2009, and later met in Sana with General David Petreaus, the head of U.S. Central Command, on January 2. But the lessons of Saleh's relationship with the Bush administration suggest that close ties can be matched by sharp policy differences.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

23. Going Critical: Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Reactor Starts Up

Author:: Simon Henderson and Stefanie Peterson
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At a ceremony near the southern Iranian coastal city of Bushehr this Saturday, Russia will begin the process of loading fuel rods into Iran's first civilian nuclear reactor. Theoretically distinct from the rest of the regime's disturbing nuclear program, the Bushehr plant nevertheless remains a major international concern. The low-enriched uranium in the fuel rods would, if diverted, substantially increase Iran's existing stock of the material, which many suspect is already being used to develop nuclear weapons. Even if they were used solely for electricity generation, the rods would eventually produce plutonium-rich residue that could also be reprocessed for use in a weapon. For Iran, the Bushehr event will be a gesture of defiance against U.S.-led international pressure; for Russia, a sign of Moscow's different diplomatic approach to the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran; and for the United States, an exception to the tightening sanctions regime, which officials claim is forcing Tehran to reconsider the wisdom of its policies.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Moscow

24. Iran's Shadow over Unrest in Bahrain

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: For nearly two weeks, the Persian Gulf island state of Bahrain has experienced near-daily disturbances following government arrests of opposition activists from the majority Shiite community. The timing of the arrests seemed geared toward preempting trouble in advance of the scheduled October 23 parliamentary and municipal elections, which minority Sunni parties and candidates are currently projected to win. The street violence and other incidents are of particular concern to the United States because Bahrain hosts the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet and Naval Forces Central Command, whose mission is to "deter and counter disruptive countries" -- a wording likely aimed at Iran, which claimed the island as its territory prior to 1970.
Topic:: Political Violence and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia

25. Saudi Oil Policy: An Unlikely Weapon to Pressure Iran

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Among the policy suggestions for heading off Iran's emergence as a military nuclear power is the notion that Saudi Arabia should use its position -- as the world's largest oil exporter and effective leader of the OPEC oil cartel -- to apply pressure. The kingdom is increasingly concerned that nuclear weapons capability would confer on Iran the status of regional hegemon. But any hope that Saudi Arabia would intervene to stop that possibility, by pumping extra supplies to lower prices and decrease Iran's oil revenues, is probably misplaced.
Topic:: International Organization and Oil
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

26. Iran's Nuclear Program: Lessons from Pakistan

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Public anxiety about Iran's nuclear intentions is focused on the Natanz uranium enrichment plant, which in many respects -- in both the public debate and the policy discussion -- resembles the situation in the 1980s when there was growing concern about Pakistan's Kahuta enrichment plant. The lessons that can be draw from that experience are not encouraging. The comparison is particularly appropriate because Iran uses the same high-speed centrifuge technology to enrich uranium as does Pakistan. Photos of Iranian centrifuges show some of them as identical to Pakistani designs developed by the disgraced A.Q. Khan. Iran also claims to be operating more advanced centrifuges using its own modifications.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Iran, South Asia, and Middle East

27. Who Will Be the Next King of Saudi Arabia... And Does It Matter?

Author:: Simon Henderson and Robert Jordan
Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 13, 2009, Ambassador Robert Jordan and Simon Henderson addressed a special Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute to discuss succession in Saudi Arabia and the challenges it could pose for the United States. Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute. His most recent Policy Focus, After King Abdullah: Succession in Saudi Arabia, will be released this month. Robert Jordan is a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, where he was posted shortly after the September 11 terror attacks.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Islam, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

28. Saudi Royals Reunited? Crown Prince Sultan Returns Home

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Late on December 11, Crown Prince Sultan arrived home to Saudi Arabia after a year's absence that included medical treatment in the United States and a nine-month convalescence at his palace in Morocco. Although described as "enjoying full health" and looking animated, Sultan is believed to still be unwell. In Sultan's absence, King Abdullah named interior minister Prince Nayef to the vacant post of second deputy prime minister, a position construed as crown-prince-in-waiting. Apart from marking a fresh twist in a drawn-out succession process, Sultan's return has implications for Saudi domestic and foreign policy -- particularly, on the eve of a Gulf summit, the continuing tension on the border with Yemen and a potentially nuclear Iran.
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco

29. Icon or Omen? Dubai's Debt Problem and the Gulf

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Late on November 25, just before the start of the Islamic Eid festival and, coincidentally, Thanksgiving in the United States, Dubai's flagship investment company Dubai World announced that it would be requesting a six-month delay on paying its debts. Within hours, Dubai's reputation was being rewritten, and its ambition to be a financial center, building on its historic reputation as a focal point for regional trade, was being recast. Uncertainty continued on November 30, when the Dubai government said that it would not guarantee Dubai World's debt. In any event, the larger story has been the nervousness of world financial markets, which are now also evincing worry about the debt of countries like Greece or Ireland. Within the Middle East, the focus is on the extent of support that Dubai will receive from Abu Dhabi, the neighboring -- and richer -- member sheikhdom of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), whether other city-states like Bahrain and Qatar are also at risk, and whether Dubai's links with Iran will change as a result of its financial situation.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Bahrain, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi

30. PolicyWatch #1402: The Persian Gulf's 'Occupied Territory': The Three-Island Dispute

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last month, Tehran announced it was building maritime offices on the Persian Gulf island of Abu Musa, reigniting the long-standing territorial dispute between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Since 1970, the disagreement over the island and the neighboring Greater and Lesser Tunbs has been mired in legal uncertainty and historical claims and counterclaims, hindering diplomatic relations between Iran and the Gulf Arab states. The recent diplomatic intensity surrounding the issue, however, including the UAE's August 21 formal protest to UN secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon, is a significant break from the past, and may be a forerunner to a future escalation. Considering the importance of the islands -- all three are strategically located near the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 percent of the world's oil passes daily -- the dispute's outcome is deeply tied to the interests of the United States and the international community.
Topic:: Sovereignty
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, Arabia, Island, United Arab Emirates, and Persia

31. PolicyWatch #1416: OPEC Deliberates: A Saudi Opportunity

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Today, oil ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meet in Vienna to discuss a possible production cut. Originally planned for November, the meeting was brought forward because of falling oil prices. With the perilous state of world financial markets, seldom has an OPEC meeting been so critical for both itself and the world. Although hard hit by falling revenues, oil market conditions give Saudi Arabia the opportunity to show strong leadership, most likely by limiting any production cut. But the oil-consuming nations would prefer no cut at all, so any reduction would discomfit relations between Washington and Riyadh. The kingdom was unhelpful as prices rose above $100 per barrel months ago, and both presidential candidates have called for independence from foreign -- implying Saudi -- oil.
Topic:: Oil
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

32. PolicyWatch #1425: Interfaith, Oil, and Afghanistan: Where Saudi and U.S. Interests Diverge

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Saudi king Abdullah is in the United States this week to discuss issues of considerable interest to both countries. Tomorrow and Thursday, he is in New York City for an interfaith meeting he is sponsoring and which President Bush will be attending. On Friday and Saturday, the Saudi monarch will be at the White House, where he will be the sole Islamic or Arab representative at a summit of major economic powers discussing the world financial crisis. In a separate meeting with President Bush, he is expected to report on Saudi mediation efforts with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Despite some common interest in all these areas, perspectives differ significantly on issues such as radical Islam and the price of oil. The United States, particularly during a time of presidential transition, should be careful not to concede ground on continuing points of disagreement.
Topic:: Economics and Oil
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, Asia, and Saudi Arabia

33. PolicyWatch #1435: Rebuilding U.S.-Libyan Relations Twenty Years after Lockerbie

Author:: Simon Henderson and Dana Moss
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Nearly twenty years ago, on December 21, 1988, PanAm Flight 103 from London to New York exploded in midair over the Scottish town of Lockerbie, killing all 259 people on board. Last weekend, according to an unconfirmed report in the International Herald Tribune, Musa Kusa, the Libyan intelligence chief widely believed to have planned the terror attack, visited Washington for talks with intelligence and military officials. The same week saw a telephone conversation between President Bush and Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi, a meeting at the State Department between Qadhafi's eldest son Saif al-Islam and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and the Senate confirmation of the first American ambassador to Libya in thirty-six years. This new chapter offers areas of cooperation, but the United States must proceed with caution.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Libya, and London

34. PolicyWatch #1398: Pakistan after Musharraf: Growing U.S. Challenges

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Today's resignation of Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf creates a power vacuum in the most crucial country in the fight against al-Qaeda and Islamic extremism. For the foreseeable future, political power in Pakistan will not be in the hands of lackluster prime minister Yousef Raza Gilani, but in those of the ruling coalition rivals -- Benazir Bhutto's widower Asif Ali Zardari and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Future political contests will likely emphasize Musharraf's perceived closeness to Washington, an issue that united domestic opinion against him. This growing political reality, in addition to Islamabad's unwillingness to confront Islamic militants, further complicates U.S. policy toward Pakistan.
Topic:: Government, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, and Asia

35. PolicyWatch #1388: Saudi Arabia: Interfaith Talks Abroad, Intolerance at Home

Author:: Simon Henderson and Jasmine El-Gamal
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, Saudi Arabia is organizing a global interfaith conference in Madrid, with more than 200 Muslim, Christian, Jewish, Hindu, and Buddhist religious leaders from 54 countries expected to attend. The conference, in the words of its main organizer, the Mecca-based Muslim World League, will "focus on common human values." Many in the West, however, will likely judge the conference as a Saudi public relations effort to emphasize its leadership of the Islamic world, and to ward off criticism, especially from the United States, that Saudi Arabia bears continuing responsibility for political and financial backing of Sunni extremists across the Middle East.
Topic:: Islam and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

36. PolicyWatch #1384: Supplicants to Saudi Arabia: The Jeddah Energy Meeting

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This weekend, Saudi Arabia will attempt to counter accusations that it has not done enough to stop rising oil prices by hosting an international energy summit of government and oil-company officials. Invitations were sent after the kingdom -- the world's top oil exporter, home to nearly a quarter of known reserves -- was pressured to take action on prices that have increased 40 percent so far this year. Unless Saudi pricing policy changes, however, the meeting is unlikely to bring any relief to consumers.
Topic:: Energy Policy and Oil
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

37. PolicyWatch #1373: Bush's Last Middle East Trip Could Be More Than Just Farewells

Author:: Simon Henderson and David Pollock
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President Bush returns to the Middle East this week for the second time in 2008. Initially planned to mark Israel's sixtieth anniversary, his itinerary has expanded to include meetings with top officials from Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, and Saudi Arabia. Except for a trip to Riyadh, these meetings will be held at a World Economic Forum conference in Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt. This lineup prompted National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley to say the trip has "both symbolism and substance" and, considering the urgency of the issues, something of substance may actually emerge.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan

38. PolicyWatch #1357: Small Island, Big Issues: Bahrain's King Visits Washington

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Tomorrow, King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa of Bahrain visits the White House for talks and a working lunch with President Bush. The meeting promises to cover much more than the usual diplomatic pleasantries. The island state of Bahrain headquarters the U.S. Fifth Fleet and is therefore key to U.S. strategy in the Persian Gulf. The stability of this relationship faces challenges, however, given increasing divisions in the royal family, simmering discontent among the majority Shiite population, and perceived threats from Iran. Each of these issues -- particularly Iran -- will likely play a prominent role on the president's agenda tomorrow.
Political Geography:: United States

39. PolicyWatch #1354: Cheney's Middle East Trip: Iran Tops a Weighty Agenda

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 16, Vice President Cheney departs on a Middle East trip that will take him to Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank, and Turkey. Coming less than two months after President Bush's trip to the region, the vice president's itinerary is intriguing. His undisclosed agenda with "key partners," in the words of the White House announcement, is likely to include the peace process, the price of oil, Iraq, and Iran. And among those issues, Iran will likely be the most mentioned, especially given this week's controversial resignation of Adm. William Fallon as the top U.S. commander in the Middle East -- a move attributed in part to differences on Iran between him and the White House.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

40. PolicyWatch #1341: Pakistani Elections and the Middle East

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After a six-week delay following the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, Pakistanis will go to the polls on February 18 to elect a new National Assembly. Pakistan and Afghanistan are "where many of our most important interests intersect," as Director of National Intelligence J. Michael McConnell told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 5. Accordingly, the election results could affect the position of a key U.S. ally in the war on terror -- the increasingly unpopular President Pervez Musharraf.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia

41. PolicyWatch #1329: Bush in Arabia: Work in Progress or Waste of Time?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Most of President Bush's eight-day trip to the Middle East was spent in the Persian Gulf, visiting Kuwait, Bahrain, the two leading sheikhdoms of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and Saudi Arabia. As long-term allies of the United States, these Gulf Arab states still look to Washington as their ultimate security guarantor in what remains a dangerous region. In return for security, the United States asks for a reasonable world price for oil, support for its efforts to secure peace between Israelis and Palestinians, and cooperation in countering the threat of a potentially nuclear-armed Iran. The success of the trip may be judged by future progress on these policies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

42. Cheney in the Middle East: Defining Key Issues and Mutual Interests

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Vice President Dick Cheney departed today on a trip to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. A bland statement issued from his office on May 3 said he was asked to travel by President Bush and would be having "discussions with the leaders of these countries on key issues of mutual interest." No details were offered of the subjects of these discussions, but vice presidents do not travel halfway around the world unless there is important business to conduct.
Topic:: International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

43. The Riyadh Arab Summit: Multiple Issues and High Expectations

Author:: Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 28, the Arab League will convene the annual summit of its twenty-two member states in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Despite a record of disunity and inconclusiveness, this annual meeting of Arab leaders remains the subject of intense interest in the region. Rising Sunni-Shiite tensions, talk of a peace opening with Israel, and developments in Iraq, the Palestinian Authority (PA), and Lebanon have generated more attention for this year's summit than usual.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Iraq, Palestine, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Riyadh

44. Gulf Challenge: Iran's Seizure of British Naval Personnel

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 23, at 10:30 a.m. local Iraqi time, fifteen British naval personnel were seized by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the northern Persian Gulf. The British personnel -- eight from the Royal Navy and seven from the Royal Marines -- were in two light craft returning to the frigate HMS Cornwall after successfully inspecting a merchant ship for goods being smuggled into Iraq. Iran has accused the personnel, who include one woman, of illegally entering Iranian territorial waters, and has threatened to put them on trial. The incident is a diplomatic and military embarrassment to Britain. Meanwhile, fears of escalation in the Gulf have contributed to a global surge in oil prices.
Topic:: International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Britain, Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

45. President Bush\'s Iraq Strategy: The Gulf Dimension

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 16, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Kuwait for a meeting with the foreign ministers of Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)the oil-producing states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. The final stop on Rices Middle East tour, the visit was an occasion to explain President Bushs newly announced Iraq initiative and to seek the support of the regions Arab states. But an important subtextindeed, arguably an overriding priority of the tripwas to assemble a united front against Iran, as also shown by the January 17 arrival of Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in the Gulf.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, and Qatar

46. PolicyWatch #1319: Aid to the Palestinians: The Role of Oil-Rich Arab States

Author:: Simon Henderson, David Makovsky, and Michael Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 17, a donor conference will convene in Paris with the goal of bolstering Palestinian governance in the West Bank -- the first such meeting since the 2006 Stockholm conference. Current Middle East envoy Tony Blair has expressed optimism that the international community will support President Mahmoud Abbas and technocratic prime minister Salam Fayad. A sum of $5.6 billion is needed for the 2008-2010 period, and with the price of oil close to $100 per barrel, that target could be reached easily with contributions from the Gulf. But how much are the Gulf Arab states actually prepared to contribute to an issue that would seem to rank as one of their great political priorities?
Topic:: Development and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

47. PolicyWatch #1315: Unwanted Guest: The Gulf Summit and Iran

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 3-4, Arab leaders representing Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman met in the Qatari capital, Doha, for their annual Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) summit, which for the first time was attended by an Iranian president. In November, the UAE set a precedent by impounding an Iranian-bound shipment of undisclosed material banned by UN Security Council Resolutions 1737 and 1747 because of its potential use for nuclear weapons or missile programs. All of this came against the background of the new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, which assessed that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003.
Topic:: Diplomacy and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar

48. PolicyWatch #1301: Pakistan and the War on Terror

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On November 3, Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency, putting at risk, despite claims to the contrary, the upcoming January elections. Musharraf justified his move by citing an increase in "the activities of extremists and incidents of terrorist attacks." The action was taken despite recent pleas from U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, as well as Admiral William Fallon, head of U.S. Central Command, who visited Musharraf on November 2. Instead of political stability in Pakistan, U.S. policymakers are now confronted with a more difficult battle against al-Qaeda in neighboring Afghanistan, a perhaps less secure Pakistani nuclear weapons arsenal, and a postponed democratic revival of the world's second most populous Muslim state.
Topic:: Political Violence, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Asia

49. PolicyWatch #1300: The Consequences of $100 Oil

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the next few days, oil is likely to break the $100 per barrel mark -- a price that will further raise U.S. consumer costs and conflict with economic measures such as the October 31 interest rate cut. Ironically, good news, such as predictions of greater economic growth, is just as likely to push oil prices above $100 as bad news. In either case, the price spike means both continuing danger and new opportunities for U.S. policy in the Middle East.
Topic:: Energy Policy and Oil
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

50. PolicyWatch #1298: Democracy in Slow Motion: Oman Goes to the Polls

Author:: J. Scott Carpenter and Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Tomorrow, around 400,000 Omani men and women are expected to vote in elections for eighty-five seats on the nation\'s Majlis al-Shura, or Consultative Council. Among the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf region, Oman -- a key U.S. ally and exporter of oil and gas, strategically positioned opposite Iran -- is often considered to be the most politically progressive, perhaps even evolving slowly toward a constitutional monarchy. But the country remains dominated by its ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, and for now, the council is limited to advice on public services and infrastructure.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Oman

51. PolicyWatch #1283: Leaving Basra City: Britain's Withdrawal from Iraq

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 3, 550 British troops evacuated one of Saddam Hussein's former palaces in Basra via the Shatt al-Arab waterway, retreating to Basra airport, the last British base in Iraq. Britain remains responsible for security in the city and for the major supply route from Kuwait, fifty miles to the south. But there is an increasing presumption that British forces will soon withdraw completely, and that U.S. forces will have to replace them.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, and Kuwait

52. PolicyWatch #1265: Mr. Brown Comes to America: The U.S.-British Summit

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 29-30, just over a month after taking over from Tony Blair, new British prime minister Gordon Brown will meet with President Bush at Camp David. It will be the first opportunity for direct, substantive discussions between the two leaders and is widely expected to be a difficult summit. Brown is seen as wanting to establish a very different -- and cooler -- relationship with Bush. Although the effect of this public distancing on longstanding U.S.-British cooperation is uncertain at the moment, the change in substance and style will no doubt have implications for current policies in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the way the two leaders relate in the event of future crises.
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Britain, Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, and Europe

53. PolicyWatch #1260: British Counterterrorism Efforts: Implications for the United States

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: British police have been praised for their speedy and effective efforts in thwarting terrorist attacks this month in London and Glasgow, as well as for the arrest and subsequent prosecution of four men who attempted to bomb the London transport network on July 21, 2005. Today, those bombers were each sentenced to a minimum of forty years in prison. (Two alleged accomplices, on whose guilt the jury could not agree, face a retrial.) But details of the cases and official comments suggest that Britain's vulnerabilities to al-Qaeda-style terrorism remain acute and could lead to tension with the United States.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and London

54. PolicyWatch #1256: Terrorist Attacks in the United Kingdom: More Faces of al-Qaeda

Author:: Simon Henderson and Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: There are fast-moving developments in the British hunt for the terrorist cell that tried to set off two car bombs in central London on June 29. Two men were arrested after they tried to crash a vehicle loaded with flammable material into a Glasgow airport terminal on June 30. And a man and woman were arrested yesterday when their vehicle was stopped on the major highway between London and Scotland. Houses have been searched in several parts of Britain, and the number detained rose to eight today, including one in an undisclosed foreign country.
Topic:: Government, Intelligence, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

55. Naval Exercises off Bahrain: Preventing Proliferation between North Korea and Iran

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: From October 30 to 31, 2006, U.S. military forces in the Persian Gulf will join the armed forces of several other countries to hold a naval exercise in the interception and search of ships carrying weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missiles. Though long planned, the exercise has added importance because of this month's nuclear test in North Korea and President George W. Bush's subsequent warning that Pyongyang will be “held to account” if it sells nuclear material to Iran or al-Qaeda.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Asia, and North Korea

56. New Saudi Rules on Succession: Will They Fix the Problem?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On October 20, 2006, eighty-three-year-old King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia announced changes to the kingdom's “Basic Law”—effectively its constitution—that appear to formalize procedures for the selection of future kings. However, it is difficult to know how much the current system of succession will actually change. For the foreseeable future, it is most likely that the world's largest oil exporter and the center of the Islamic world will still be led by an octogenarian, with the probability that his successor will be of similar age, and perhaps even infirm.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Saudi Arabia

57. Yemen's President to Be Reelected As Terrorist Plots Revealed

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 20, amid reports of al-Qaeda plots against local American targets, the people of the strategically important but impoverished Arabian Peninsula state of Yemen go to the polls to elect a president. The president will not be new -- the incumbent Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power for twenty-eight years, is expected to be reelected. Apart from last-minute doubts about the poll caused by the security crisis, the main question is how sweeping his victory will be. The last time elections were held, in 1999, President Saleh polled 96 percent, including the vote of his only opponent, a member of his own political party who said he considered Saleh more worthy. This time the field includes four other candidates. Saleh's main rival is Faysal bin Shamlan, a former oil minister who is backed by an alliance of opposition parties and whom Saleh has linked to an arrested "major terrorist."
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: America and Yemen

58. Kuwait's Elections Exacerbate Differences between Ruler and Parliament

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The June 29 parliamentary elections in Kuwait achieved international media coverage because women were allowed to stand for office and vote for the first time in the sheikhdom. Less well reported were the local political divisions that had brought about elections a year earlier than expected. The results of the balloting—in which, incidentally, none of the women candidates won office—worsened the divisions between the Kuwaiti government and the National Assembly and could lead to greater public disagreement about the character of the country's alliance with the United States.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Kuwait

59. Facing Iran's Challenge: Safeguarding Oil Exports from the Persian Gulf

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a June 4 speech marking the anniversary of the death of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a warning to the United States in the crisis of over Iran's nuclear program. “If the Americans make a wrong move toward Iran, the shipment of energy will definitely face danger, and the Americans would not be able to protect energy supply in the region,” Khamenei said. This raises questions about the strength of the Iranian military and how the United States could counter it, using military power, alternative export routes, or a combination of both.
Topic:: Energy Policy and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

60. 'Lag' or 'Gap'? Criticisms of Saudi Counterterrorism Actions

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The second meeting in a new round of twice-yearly strategic dialogues between the United States and Saudi Arabia will be held May 18 in Washington. Established at the Crawford summit between President George W. Bush and then Crown Prince Abdullah in April 2005, the first meeting was held in the Saudi city of Jeddah last November. The meetings were instituted because of the bilateral problems highlighted at the Crawford talks. The issues then were discussed "frankly and plainly" (the Saudi description) and the talks were "candid" (the American official description) -- diplomatic codes for little agreement. This time the Saudi side is spinning "the prospects of expanding cooperation," though the United States is still concerned about the "lag" it sees between official Saudi statements and action. Six working groups were established at the Jeddah meeting in November: counterterrorism; military affairs; energy; economic and financial affairs; consular affairs and partnership; and education exchange and human development. The generic titles obscure some major differences. As the labels suggest, the Saudis have successfully avoided any direct reference to political reform and human rights, areas that have been particularly criticized by a succession of U.S. officials and congressional figures. Even when such issues were raised, reports say that in the case of human rights, the Saudi side immediately riposted with concern about the circumstances of Saudi detainees at Guantanamo Bay, where they are said to form the single largest national contingent.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, and Saudi Arabia

61. Assessing the Iranian Nuclear Threat with Reference to Pakistan's Experience

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 30, the Sunday Times of London reported that Israeli Mossad chief Meir Dagan had warned U.S. officials during a secret visit to Washington of covert Iranian plans for enriching uranium, which may mean Tehran was "nearer to acquiring nuclear weapons than widely believed." The same report quoted Knesset Foreign and Defense Committee chairman Yuval Steinitz as saying that Iran might be only a year from developing a bomb. Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director-general and Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohammed ElBaradei is on the record as saying that, once Iran can enrich uranium in quantity, making an actual bomb would only take "a few months." And, in August 2005, the Washington Post reported that the new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate "projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing [sufficient highly enriched uranium] for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years." In such circumstances it is small wonder if the public is confused, wondering whether some officials are exaggerating the potential danger of a nuclear-armed Iran while others seem to be almost irresponsibly unconcerned. In fact, the statements above are not mutually inconsistent, reflecting instead the discrepancy between hard fact and plausible interpretation. Since Iran's controversial uranium enrichment technology was initially acquired from Pakistan, an examination of that country's progress toward a nuclear bomb is both worthwhile and illuminating.
Topic:: Security and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Tehran

62. Chinese-Saudi Cooperation: Oil but also Missiles

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 22, two days after a reportedly unproductive meeting with President George W. Bush in Washington, President Hu Jintao of China will arrive in Saudi Arabia. Relations between the two countries are an increasingly important part of world diplomacy. In energy, China is the leading customer of Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter. On the military front, the kingdom bought now-obsolete ballistic missiles with a 1,500-mile range from China in the 1980s; the Saudis are reportedly interested in replacing them with more modern Chinese-designed missiles, perhaps with Pakistani nuclear warheads. Unlike his American visit, Hu's trip to the kingdom will unambiguously be given the status of a state visit. It is especially significant because King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia visited China as recently as January this year, the first visit by a Saudi monarch since diplomatic relations were established in 1990 and Abdullah's first trip outside the Middle East since becoming monarch last August. During the January meeting, five agreements covering economic cooperation trade and double taxation as well as an energy pact were signed. Energy is expected to be central to the latest talks, though a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman noted it was “not the only domain” of cooperation.
Topic:: Diplomacy and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, America, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

63. High Rises and Low Wages: Expatriate Labor in Gulf Arab States

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 21 and 22 as many as three thousand foreign construction workers rioted in the Persian Gulf emirate of Dubai in protest at conditions on the site where the world's tallest building is being built. Cars and construction machinery were wrecked and office windows broken as the workers demanded higher wages and improved conditions. The unrest highlights the desperate conditions faced by the expatriate labor that performs most of the manual work in the oil-rich Gulf Arab states.
Topic:: Economics, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Arab Countries, Dubai, and Persia

64. Al-Qaeda Attack on Abqaiq: The Vulnerability of Saudi Oil

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The February 24 attack by al-Qaeda on Saudi Arabia's giant oil processing facility at Abqaiq failed. At least two of the attackers were killed, along with two security guards. On February 27, Saudi authorities said they had killed another five terrorists linked to the Abqaiq attack in a clash in Riyadh, and they were interrogating a further suspect. The failure of the attack and the reported success of the subsequent counterterrorist operation give the impression of Saudi efficiency, but it should at least as much serve as a warning. The planned attack, targeting the world's largest oil exporter, should give impetus to President Bush's determination, declared in his January State of the Union address, to wean the United States off foreign oil.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Oil
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

65. Addicted to Oil: The State of the Union and the Middle East

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In his January 31 State of the Union address, President George W. Bush declared that America was “addicted to oil” and urged spending on technologies “to break [that] addiction.” Noting that oil is often imported from unstable parts of the world, he set a goal of replacing more than 75 percent of U.S. oil imports from the Middle East by 2025. Depending on exactly what Bush means by that statement, such a policy could have huge significance for U.S. policy in the region, or it could be less than meets the eye.
Topic:: Economics and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

66. Kuwait's Parliament Decides Who Rules

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At a time when attention is focused on the problems democracy has brought in one part of the Middle East, such as the Palestinian territories, it has been easy to overlook how democratic processes were key to resolving a crisis in another Middle Eastern country: Kuwait. The January 15 death of Kuwait's emir, or ruler, Sheikh Jaber brought to power the physically and mentally incapacitated Sheikh Saad al-Abdullah al-Sabah. But the crisis engendered by his ill health and his refusal to abdicate was resolved quickly through democratic processes. On January 24, the parliament of the oil-rich Persian Gulf state of Kuwait exercised a previously unused constitutional power and voted to oust Sheikh Saad. The new emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, is expected to be confirmed by parliament on January 29, and is now under pressure from some members of parliament to choose a prime minister from outside the ranks of the ruling al-Sabah family.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East and Kuwait

67. Map Wars: The UAE Reclaims Lost Territory from Saudi Arabia

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After years of quiet diplomatic frustration, the oil-rich Persian Gulf federated state of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has publicly reopened a dispute with neighboring Saudi Arabia over two parts of their common border. A map in the 2006 edition of the official UAE Yearbook shows the UAE extending westward as far as Qatar, across territory currently controlled by Saudi Arabia. (The map in the 2005 edition does not show this.) Less obvious, but also depicted, is a southern border that extends to include most of the Shaybah Oil Field, Saudi Arabia's newest oil production area.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates

68. Yemeni President Saleh Comes to Washington

Author:: Simon Henderson and Khairi Abaza
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The November 10 meeting at the White House between U.S. president George W. Bush and Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh will be the third time the two men have met since the September 11 terror attacks on the United States. Yemen is an oft-forgotten close U.S. ally, arguably as crucial to the success of the war on terror as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, or Egypt. The south Arabian country, with its rugged, desert landscape, remains a sanctuary for al-Qaeda operatives. With seacoasts along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Yemen dominates the Bab el-Mandab shipping chokepoint, the route by which oil from the Persian Gulf reaches the Suez Canal and hence the European market. (A French supertanker was badly damaged in an al-Qaeda attack off the Yemeni coast in 2002.)
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, Washington, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

69. Saudi Arabia's Debate on Women Driving Masks a Deeper Divide

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During the last several months, the question of whether women in Saudi Arabia should be allowed to drive has become a lively topic of debate within the kingdom. Support for the issue has come from the newly enthroned King Abdullah; the most prominent opponent is the long-serving interior minister, Prince Nayef. The men are viewed as political rivals frequently at odds over a range of policies. Increasingly, women driving seems a metaphor for the series of security, economic, and educational challenges facing the kingdom—and therefore a tempting policy opportunity for the United States.
Topic:: International Relations, Gender Issues, Government, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

70. A Bedouin on a Camel? Saudi Foreign Policy and the Insurgency in Iraq

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iraq's interior minister, Bayan Jabr, lashed out at Saudi diplomacy while speaking to journalists in Amman on October 2. Referring to Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, Jabr said Iraq would not be lectured by "some Bedouin riding a camel." Broadening his remarks to the Saudi ruling family, the House of Saud, the Iraqi minister said, "There are regimes that are dictatorships; they have one god, he is the king, he is god of heaven and earth, and he rules as he likes. A whole country is named after a family."
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, and Middle East

71. Changing the Guard at the Saudi Embassy in Washington

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 20, the Saudi foreign ministry announced that Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the long-serving Saudi ambassador to the United States, was stepping down, and that "the process of nominating" Prince Turki al-Faisal, the current Saudi ambassador in London, to replace him had begun. When the widely anticipated death of the recently hospitalized, eighty-four-year-old King Fahd occurs, both Prince Turki and Prince Bandar, as senior "next generation" princes, could be crucial players.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Washington, and Middle East

72. After the London Bombings: Meeting the Challenge of Young Muslims and Extremism

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although the U.S. and British governments have offered gestures of mutual diplomatic support and apparent political agreement in the aftermath of the July 7 terrorist bombings in London, such efforts mask the wide differences between their approaches to the increasing threat of al-Qaeda terrorism. On July 15, President George W. Bush, speaking in North Carolina about the bombings, stated, “The killers . . . did not care about their religion. . . . These people will not be stopped by negotiations. . . . There is only one course of action. We will take the fight to the enemy, and we will stay in this fight until this enemy is defeated.” The next day, Prime Minister Tony Blair, stated, “The greatest danger is that we fail to face up to the nature of the threat we are dealing with. . . . [N]o sane person would negotiate. . . . It cannot be beaten except by confronting it, symptoms and causes, head-on. Without compromise and without delusion.” The similarity in language was probably intentional. Yet, Washington's apparent preference for military force contrasts with Blair's categorization of Britain's strategy: “In the end, it is the power of argument, debate, true religious faith, and true legitimate politics that will defeat this threat.”
Topic:: Government, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Washington, and London

73. The Gleneagles G8 Summit: Middle Eastern Issues on the Agenda

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Beginning on July 6, British prime minister Tony Blair will host the G8 summit in Gleneagles, a hotel and golf course in Scotland. Africa and climate change are the two main topics on the agenda, but counterterrorism, proliferation, and political reform in the Middle East are scheduled to be discussed as well. The annual G8 summit has become the sole forum in which the leaders of the seven top industrialized countries (Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States) and Russia meet to discuss and decide on courses of action. Diplomatic grandstanding and expected antiglobalization demonstrations aside, the summit is an opportunity to set the international political and bureaucratic agenda for months ahead.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Oil, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Britain, Africa, Russia, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Middle East, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Scotland

74. Women in Gulf Politics: A Progress Report

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 20, 2005, Kuwait's first female cabinet minister, Massouma al-Mubarak, was sworn in, taking responsibility for the planning portfolio. Six months earlier, a woman was appointed minister of economy and planning in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Women have assumed ministerial posts in Bahrain and Oman as well. And in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman, women now have the right to vote. Indeed, women's political rights, previously nonexistent in the conservative Arab Gulf states, have undergone extraordinary growth in recent years. Yet, how much progress has there really been, given that women's representation in this region is still poor even compared with the rest of the Arab world? In particular, can the United States, which actively encourages enhanced rights for women, do anything about Saudi Arabia's anomalous lack of such progress?
Topic:: Gender Issues and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman

75. Travel Advisory: Military Personnel and British Courts

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 11, retired Israeli maj. gen. Doron Almog declined to disembark from an arriving Israel El Al airliner at London's Heathrow airport and flew back to Israel, thereby avoiding British police waiting with a warrant for his arrest. The warrant, instigated in part by pro-Palestinian groups, alleged that Almog had committed war crimes while head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Southern Command operating in the Gaza Strip in 2002. The airport incident has serious implications, the full extent of which will only become clear in time, for visitors to Britain from Israel and possibly America (due to U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq). Israelis, Americans, and, indeed, British citizens could be vulnerable when visiting other countries as well. London's role in the Middle East peace process could also be constrained.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United Kingdom, America, Europe, Middle East, London, and Palestine

76. Engaging Israel: The Significance of the Istanbul Meeting between Israel and Pakistan

Author:: Simon Henderson and Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The September 1 meeting in the Turkish city of Istanbul between Israeli foreign minister Silvan Shalom and his Pakistani counterpart, Khurshid Kasuri, was historic. There have been no public official contacts between the two nations since Pakistan was founded in 1947 as a home for Muslims in the Indian subcontinent just a few months before Israel, the Jewish national home, achieved statehood in 1948. The meeting represents a major breakthrough in Jerusalem's efforts to overcome diplomatic isolation and also indicates that Turkey is determined to play a more active role than previously thought.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

77. Supporting the Palestinian Authority: Will the Oil-Rich Arabs Pay Up?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 1, British prime minister Tony Blair will host a conference in London dedicated to garnering support for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The summit is intended to help the new Palestinian leadership strengthen PA institutions, with a special focus on facilitating economic development, encouraging donor pledges, and identifying investment opportunities. Israel will not be participating, but Saudi Arabia and several other oil-rich Arab countries will attend. These countries reaped unexpectedly high government revenues in 2004 due to increased oil prices—excluding Iraq, the Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) saw $45 billion in additional revenue compared to 2003. How much of this windfall is offered to bolster the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will be seen, at least in Washington, as a key indicator of the willingness of the Arab world to secure a settlement.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

78. Saudi Stability in the Shadow of the U.S. Consulate Attack in Jeddah

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The December 6 terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, which killed five non-American staff members, was a worrisome display of al-Qaeda's careful planning, detailed timing, and audaciousness. Worse still, the assault contradicts Riyadh's claims that it has contained the threat of terrorism. The incident, which comes at a time of persistent high oil prices, has only exacerbated concerns about some of the most senior members of the ruling al-Saud family with regard to their health and ability to govern.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

79. The UAE after Sheikh Zayed: Tensions between Tribe and State

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The November 2 death of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan -- president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and ruler of its largest emirate, Abu Dhabi -- had been widely anticipated, and the succession of his eldest son, Khalifa, to both positions has been smooth and faster than expected. Yet, filling the gap left by the man whom local newspapers describe as "visionary" and "sage of the Arab world" is likely to challenge both the al-Nahyan family and its relations with the ruling families in the other emirates.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and Abu Dhabi

80. Blair's Visit to Washington: British Politics and the Peace Process

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: British prime minister Tony Blair arrives in Washington on November 11 -- the first foreign leader to visit following President George W. Bush's reelection. The visit confirms Britain's status as America's most supportive ally and Blair's status as the president's closest foreign confidant. But the British leader is likely to use the two days of talks to place distance between himself and Bush. Unless obscured by diplomatic platitudes, the public differences will be most acute over the pace and direction of the Middle East peace process.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: America, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

81. Elections in Saudi Arabia: Assessing the Latest Postponement

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, scheduled to begin in November, have been postponed until 2005. Given that these will be the first public political elections ever to take place in the kingdom, their introduction has been keenly watched, both domestically and from abroad. The latest delay, the second since the original announcement in 2003, indicates that the Saudi royal family is divided over the present usefulness of the sort of broadened political participation that the United States considers vital to combating the militant Islamism of al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden. No official reason was given for the change, which was reported on September 12 as being a rescheduling rather than a postponement.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

82. China and Oil: The Middle East Dimension

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Rapidly growing Chinese oil demand was one of the key factors influencing discussions at this week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), convened in Vienna by ministers from OPEC member states. During the first eight months of 2004, Chinese oil imports surged by 40 percent compared with the same period in 2003, contributing to the rapid rise in oil prices during the summer. China, the world's most populous nation, knows its economic growth must be fueled by oil imports, with the Middle East serving as the principal source. Accordingly, Beijing has begun to make energy security a priority, mounting a campaign to build improved commercial and diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern states. These efforts will entail increased competition with U.S. influence in the region.
Topic:: Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, China, Middle East, and Arab Countries

83. The al-Qaeda Challenge to Saudi Arabia

Author:: Simon Henderson, Jonathan Schanzer, and Thomas Lippman
Publication Date:: 07-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 21, 2004, Jonathan Schanzer, Thomas Lippman, and Simon Henderson addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Schanzer is a Soref fellow at the Institute and author of the monograph Al-Qaeda's Armies: Middle East Affiliate Groups and the Next Generation of Terror. Mr. Lippman is an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, specializing in U.S. foreign policy and Middle Eastern affairs. Simon Henderson, a London-based associate of The Washington Institute, currently heads Saudi Strategies, a group that advises governments and corporations on regional developments. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

84. European Union Elections: Implications for Middle East Policy

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 22, 2004, Philip Gordon, Simon Serfaty, and Soner Cagaptay addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Gordon is a senior fellow and director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. He has also served as director for European affairs on the National Security Council. Dr. Serfaty is the director of the Europe Program and the Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in global security and geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a senior professor of U.S. foreign policy at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. Dr. Cagaptay is coordinator of The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:: Europe, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

85. OPEC Policy: A Correction Rather Than a Cure

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is meeting this week in Beirut, where the cartel is expected to confirm a higher production ceiling that should lead to a decrease in international oil prices. Nevertheless, the sharp price hikes seen during the past few weeks have rekindled questions about OPEC's motivations and whether the world would be better off without the organization.
Topic:: Security, Oil, and Religion

86. Relying on the Saudis: The Challenge for U.S. Oil Policy

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the past week, oil prices have exceeded $40 per barrel for the first time since the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and gasoline prices in parts of the United States are now more $2 per gallon. Contributing to this increase were heightened concerns about supply, particularly in the wake of a May 1 terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter. Two Americans and three other Westerners were killed in the attack, and the body of one of the victims was dragged through the streets behind the terrorists' vehicle. Following the incident, the U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia urged Americans to leave the kingdom.
Topic:: Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia

87. Bush and Blair: Friends Indeed

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Tomorrow's meeting in Washington, D.C., between President George W. Bush and visiting British prime minister Tony Blair was scheduled before the recent outbreaks of violence in Iraq and before Wednesday's announcement of U.S. support for Israel's plan to unilaterally withdraw from Gaza. But both subjects will top the agenda of talks between the two leaders, and decisions emerging from the meeting could shape international affairs for years to come. Despite the fact that both men need each other's support at the moment, significant political and policy differences between the two persist.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

88. Meeting Qadhafi: Blair's Kiss of Acceptability

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 25, British prime minister Tony Blair will meet with Col. Muammar Qadhafi in Libya, marking an important moment in the process of bringing Libya back into the international community. The March 23 meeting between Qadhafi and U.S. assistant secretary of state William Burns suggests that the United States and Britain are moving in parallel. Although Burns reportedly handed Qadhafi a letter from President George W. Bush, so far there is no sign that the two leaders will meet anytime soon. Indeed, it also remains unclear what role Qadhafi will play in the region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Libya, and Arabia

89. Terror Attacks and Elections: The Challenge for Europe

Author:: Simon Henderson and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 03-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Three days after the terrorist bombings in Madrid, the pro-American, conservative Spanish government was defeated in general elections, to the surprise of many observers. Although officials have not yet confirmed that the al-Qaeda terrorist network was responsible for the attacks, the polling result was immediately interpreted as reflecting electorate anger at retiring Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, and the belief that his foreign policy had made Spain a target of foreign terrorists. An immediate pledge to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq by incoming Socialist leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero is a blow to the Bush administration's Iraq policy and represents, albeit unintentionally, a major political triumph for al-Qaeda.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

90. Pakistan's Nuclear Proliferation and U.S. Policy

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 01-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recent media reports suggest that rogue Pakistani scientists have been peddling nuclear secrets across the Middle East for many years. The revelation offsets recent good news from the region -- Iran's acceptance of nuclear inspections and Libya's agreement to give up weapons of mass destruction. The spread of nuclear secrets in Pakistan is particularly worrisome for Washington; if Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf were killed or overthrown, the country's nuclear arsenal could be aimed at U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf region or at Pakistan's longstanding rival, India.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, Washington, Middle East, India, and Arab Countries

91. The September 11 Congressional Report: A Sea Change in U.S.-Saudi Relations?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Yesterday's meeting in the White House between U.S. president George W. Bush and Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud al-Faisal reflects both Saudi official anger at the reports of the kingdom's apparent complicity in the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and its continuing ability to gain short-notice access to the very top of the U.S. administration. But reports of the meeting suggest a new and public toughness by President Bush toward the Saudi leadership -- a significant break in the closeness between two political dynasties, the Bushes and the al-Saud.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

92. Succession Politics in the Conservative Arab Gulf States: The Weekend's Events in Ras Al-Khaimah

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The normally sleepy shaykhdom of Ras al-Khaimah, part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), was wracked by gunfire and street protests over the weekend after the aged and frail ruler, Shaykh Saqr bin Mohammed al-Qassimi, switched the title of crown prince from one of his seven sons to another. Sword-waving supporters of the deposed son, Shaykh Khalid, forced members of the emiri guard to retreat behind the high walls of the ruler's palace. A semblance of order was restored only after Abu Dhabi, the lead emirate of the UAE, sent armored vehicles to Ras al-Khaimah. Shaykh Khalid still contests the change, but troops have prevented supporters from reaching his palace. Although he is an outspoken critic of the United States, his removal flies in the face of certain U.S. policy objectives.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

93. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S.-Saudi Counterterrorism Cooperation: In the Wake of the Riyadh Bombing

Author:: Simon Henderson and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The recent bombings in Riyadh and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's remarks condemning them have raised expectations that U.S.-Saudi counterterrorism cooperation will improve so that such tragedies can be averted in the future. What internal dynamic will guide the Saudis' handling of this crisis? What sort of counterterrorism cooperation are they likely to provide in the aftermath of the bombings?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

94. Special Policy Forum Report: Impact of Success in Iraq on Gulf States

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The end of Saddam Husayn's regime offers several key benefits with regard to U.S. interests. World oil supplies will increase as Iraq -- which has not been a major oil exporter since the beginning of the 1980-1988 war with Iran -- raises its oil production capacity to its full potential, which may amount to 5-6 million barrels per day. Cheap oil will boost the global economy, reduce Arab control of the oil market, and allow the United States to become less dependent on Saudi Arabia and better positioned to demand reforms from Middle Eastern regimes. In addition, postwar Iraq will no longer pose a weapons-of-mass-destruction threat to the region. The end of Saddam's regime will also reduce Russian and French influence in the region.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

95. U.S. Policy and Iraqi Oil: The Challenges Ahead

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) -- the oil producers' cartel of which Iraq is a founding member -- meets in Vienna to discuss production cuts intended to maintain the current, relatively high price of oil. The United States is not expected to send a representative for Iraq, although one or more among the plethora of political groups in the liberated country may send a would-be representative, unlikely to be seated. While ignoring the meeting, Washington still needs to make clear how it will reconstruct the Iraqi oil industry and utilize the nation's huge oil reserves, second in size only to those of Saudi Arabia.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Vienna

96. Bush and Blair: Tensions in the Relationship

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, speaking at the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell, after mentioning the war in Iraq, declared, "no challenge, no opportunity, is more important, more pressing, than the quest to put an end to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians." Such wording is similar to sentiments expressed in recent weeks by British prime minister Tony Blair. However, there are indications that Washington's view about Israeli-Palestinian issues sharply differs from that of London.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Europe, Middle East, Israel, London, Palestine, and Arabia

97. Promoting Saudi Civil Society: What role for the United States?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week the Bush administration decided to reject the recommendation of an independent federal agency to designate Saudi Arabia as a "country of particular concern" under the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom had heard evidence that the Saudi religious police raided the homes of foreign workers who practiced Christianity and held them in squalid, overcrowded prisons. Washington's dilemma lies in dealing with such evidence without upsetting Riyadh at a time when the United States is trying to secure optimal Saudi cooperation on military action against Iraq. The administration's reluctance is at odds with President George W. Bush's National Security Strategy announced in September 2002, which defined "a single, sustainable model for national success [in the world]: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise." It also obscures an opportunity to bolster emerging trends in Saudi Arabia that hint at potential political change.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

98. Reforming the Arab Stand: A Saudi Initiative on Iraq and the Wider Arab World

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, the Saudi government published what it described as a "Charter to Reform the Arab Stand," a document intended for endorsement at the next summit of Arab leaders, due to be held in Bahrain in March. Addressed to Arab kings and presidents, the charter calls for more internal reforms and "categorically reject[s] any illegal external aggression against any Arab state."
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Reform
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Bahrain

99. Missiles and Diplomacy: The Middle East's Dangerous Mix

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The temporary seizure by the Spanish navy last week of a ship carrying Scud missiles from North Korea to Yemen was a reminder of the extent of missile proliferation in the Middle East. Similarly, Yemen's insistence on receiving the missiles, despite U.S. pressure, is a reminder of how much priority Middle Eastern states place on missile arsenals.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Korea, and Yemen

100. Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part I): The Impact in the Kingdom

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Measures being taken by Saudi Arabia to stop terrorist financing have been welcomed by top U.S. officials. But the main test for the new rules announced on December 3 will be in Saudi Arabia itself, where zakat (giving to Islamic charities) is a religious duty and where measures that please Washington are increasingly regarded as objectionable. As often happens in the kingdom, the theory behind the new rules may well differ from how they are actually implemented.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS