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1. Zero-Sum versus Win-Win in the Middle East

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: The Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin analyses the economic effects of having a zero-sum versus a win-win approach to problems. Increased bilateral trade since the Abraham Accords offer an example of a win-win scenario while the current Lebanese crisis shows how difficult it can be to escape a zero-sum game.
Topic:
Economy, Normalization, Abraham Accords, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan, and United Arab Emirates

2. Russia invades Ukraine: The economic fall-out and consequences for energy markets

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin analyses the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the Middle East and global energy markets.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Economy, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

3. The Ukraine War and the Middle East: The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin examines several economic issues occurring simultaneously in the Middle East and North Africa region mainly as a result of the Ukraine-Russia war. Higher oil prices are good for some countries and bad for others.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Middle East

4. The Impact of Covid-19 and Conflict on Middle Eastern Economies

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin assesses the economic damage caused by COVID-19 particularly in countries in the region experiencing the fallout of ongoing conflicts, and discusses several key trends that will continue to plague these hard-hit states. Ten years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, war, low oil prices and COVID-19 are affecting the economic situation of the Middle East. Conflicts continue in Syria, Libya and Yemen, while Iraq and Lebanon suffer from the breakdown of government authority. The region appears to be less affected by COVID-19 than others, but that may be because data on infections and deaths is incomplete.
Topic:
Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria

5. Changes in Oil Markets and New Technology: The Effects of COVID-19 and Climate Change

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: The Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin discusses the near and long term prospects for oil pricing, with special attention to new technologies being developed in wealthy Gulf States. In the first two months of 2021, the price of oil rose by almost 38 percent to just over $65/barrel. Was this because of rising demand, supply constraints or increased confidence? All these factors were relevant, but a glance at the OPEC basket price of oil over the past decade puts the rise in prices into perspective. At the end of February, the oil price was well below its 2011-2014 and 2018 highs both nominally terms and even more so when inflation is considered.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Science and Technology, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

6. The UAE and Israel: Developing Relations and the Challenge Ahead

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin discusses the developing economic ties between the United Arab Emirates and Israel with an emphasis on investments in the energy sector. In April 2021, the Israeli firm Delek Drilling announced plans to sell its 22 percent direct stake in the Tamar gas field to investors led by the Abu Dhabi based state-owned Mubadala Petroleum for $1.1 billion. The Tamar field has an estimated 297 billion cubic meters (bcm) of reserves. This would be by far the largest commercial deal yet between Israel and the UAE. Mubadala Petroleum is a wholly owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi state investor, Mubadala Investment Company. Its plans to move into Israel’s upstream gas sector have the backing of the UAE and Israeli governments. In March 2021, the UAE announced the establishment of a $10 billion fund to invest in energy and other strategic sectors of the Israeli economy. According to the official statement, the UAE will invest in and with Israel in sectors including energy, manufacturing, water, space, healthcare, and agro-tech. The investment fund will support development initiatives to promote regional economic cooperation between the two countries. Funding will come from government and private sector institutions and the Delek deal is part of this framework,
Topic:
Energy Policy, Treaties and Agreements, and Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates

7. The Forgotten Crises in the Gulf: Electricity and Water in Iran and Iraq

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin analyses the causes of shortages in electricity and water supplies in the Persian Gulf region. In Iraq and Iran, in particular, spontaneous protests have gained momentum this summer as a result of these critical problems. The Gulf is well known for its oil and gas resources, but the lack of water may be its outstanding feature. Between 2000 and 2020, the population of the Gulf states rose by almost 50 percent but the supply of fresh water from sources other than desalination fell. This edition of Iqtisadi examines recent developments in the Gulf with an emphasis on the water crisis. The oil producers in the Gulf are divided into two groups: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman – and Iran plus Iraq. The GCC states are all monarchies while Iran and Iraq are republics. The differences between the two groups are not only constitutional and political, but also socio-economic.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Water, Economy, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and Gulf Nations

8. How the Taliban Re-took Afghanistan

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin discusses the broader historical, political and economic context for the Taliban's recent return to power in Afghanistan. On 15 August 2021, Taliban forces entered the Afghan capital, Kabul, as the government collapsed and the president, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country. This brought an end to the twenty-year campaign waged by the US and its allies to remake the country. The speed with which the Afghan army collapsed shocked many, but others, who understood developments in the country better, were not surprised. On 31 August, the last US forces left the country.
Topic:
Politics, Taliban, Economy, and History
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

9. Israel and the UAE: Old New Friends

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin analyzes economic factors involved in the recent UAE-Israel normalization accords. In August 2020, the US, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced the full normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. In September, the Abraham Accords were signed at the White House between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and the US. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE and Israel and Bahrain opens the door for trade, investment and cooperation. Israel is looking for markets, investments and joint projects. The UAE is dominated by two emirates: Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Abu Dhabi is the main oil producer in the UAE and is thus one of the largest in the world. It has a strong interest in reorienting its economy away from oil and has invested in green technologies. Dubai has invested heavily in real estate and tourism and also wants to diversify its economy. Israel is a very suitable trading partner given its strength in hi-tech.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates

10. Sudan’s Predicament and the Israeli Connection

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin delves into the structural factors that led to protests and the overthrow of Sudan's longtime dictator, Omar al-Bashir, in 2019. This background along with more recent developments, explains why some of the leadership in Sudan today believe engagement with Israel makes good economic sense.
Topic:
International Relations, Economy, and Omar al-Bashir
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Middle East, and Israel

11. Coronavirus, Oil and the Middle East

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin analyzes several of the key economic effects on the Middle East and North Africa caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the sudden drop in oil prices.
Topic:
Oil, Economy, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

12. Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria: sinking together?

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin analyses the underlying factors in the economic problems facing Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and highlights losses in personal income among the populations in these countries that have added fuel to social protests in recent months.
Topic:
GDP, Economy, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

13. Iran’s Battered Economy

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi: The Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin analyses the Iranian economy in 2020 in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic and economic sanctions.
Topic:
Economy, Coronavirus, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

14. The Middle East economy in the last decade

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Paul Rivlin analyzes the problematic economic trends in the Middle East, which in part contributed to the 2011 Arab Spring. What has happened to the economies of the Middle East over the last decade? The last ten years have been ones of unprecedented drama because of the Arab Spring, its collapse and descent into war, and repression in most of the countries in which it occurred. This has obscured some very worrying underlying trends which were among the reasons why the Arab Spring occurred. The first is demographic pressure (See Table 1). The population of the Middle East has increased by nearly over 100 million, or 22 percent in the ten years preceding 2017. The population of the Arab states rose by 83 million or a quarter, while the three non-Arab states increased more slowly. Israel’s population rise was close to the Middle East average. Egypt, the largest Arab state in demographic terms, experienced a rise of 20 million or nearly 26 percent. These increases, which were among the fastest in the world, placed huge strains on the economies of the region. They required more food supplies in a region that is chronically short of water, investments in the infrastructure, and fast economic growth to generate jobs.
Topic:
Economy, Arab Spring, Unemployment, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
Middle East

15. Tunisia 2019: The Success and Failures of the Arab Spring

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Paul Rivlin analyzes the economic challenges facing Tunisia, a country which many have claimed represents perhaps the sole success story of the 'Arab Spring.'
Topic:
Poverty, Economy, Arab Spring, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

16. China: Economy, Energy and the Middle East

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Paul Rivlin analyzes the economic background of China's involvement in the Middle East. Several key questions arise with respect to China’s economic involvement in the Middle East: What are China’s interests in the Middle East? How far are they dominated by its energy needs? How are they affected by its relations with the United States?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Geopolitics, and Economy
Political Geography:
China and Middle East

17. Ethiopia: Economic Development in a Harsh Environment: Part 1

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Paul Rivlin analyzes the ongoing economic challenges faced by Ethiopia. A visit to Ethiopia provides food for thought for an economist who devotes much of his time to the Middle East. During the last twenty years, despite many problems and a very difficult historical legacy, Ethiopia has experienced rapid economic growth. It remains a very poor, landlocked country with few natural resources and faces serious internal political problems but is experiencing something rare: relatively good governance. This has made the difference that is currently boosting growth and reducing poverty levels. This edition examines the political and economic development of Ethiopia in recent decades. The June edition will analyze the relevance of its experience for other countries.
Topic:
History, Economy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Ethiopia

18. Ethiopia: Economic Development in a Harsh Environment: Part 2

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The second part of this review of Ethiopia’s economic development examines the strengths and weaknesses of the policies followed and the institutions established in recent years and compares them with the development policies adopted in East Asia.
Topic:
History, Reform, Economy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

19. The Kushner Plan: Economics or politics, which comes first?

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Paul Rivlin analyzes the "Peace to Prosperity A New Vision for the Palestinian People and the Broader Middle East" plan, sometimes known as the "Deal of the Century," and the potential effects of the plan on the West Bank and Gaza.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, United States of America, and West Bank

20. Middle East Demographics to 2030

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this edition of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin examines the "MENA Generation 2030" UNICEF report, and its implications. According to the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) the population of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA: the Arab countries and Iran) will increase from 484 million in 2018 to 581 million in 2030 and 724 million in 2050.[1] (See Table 1) Between 2018 and 2030, the population is forecast rise by almost 1.7 percent annually and between 2030 and 2050 by just over 1.2 percent annually. By far the largest country demographically is Egypt, and its population is forecast to rise by almost 1.8 percent annually between 2018 and 2030 and by almost 1.4 percent annually between 2030 and 2050. This edition of Iqtisadi examines the report and its implications.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economy, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
Middle East

21. Iran attacks Saudi Arabia

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Paul Rivlin examines the economic effects of the recent drone strikes carried out in Saudi Arabia by Iranian proxies. On 14 September, drones and/or missiles hit the Abqaiq processing facility in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil processing plant. In addition, fires engulfed the Khurais oil field after it was also hit. While there is uncertainty about where the attack came from, it is widely agreed that Iran was behind it. Iran, whose economy is suffering badly from the effects of sanctions as well as massive mismanagement, has used proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen against its enemies: Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US. The attacks on Saudi Arabia are among the most dramatic and economically significant in this war.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Drones, Economy, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

22. Iraq: Oil Wealth and Multiple Crises

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In the new issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin examines the popular protests in Iraq during October 2019 from an economic angle. At the beginning of October, after days of riots in Baghdad, a nationwide curfew was imposed. The demonstrations were led by young men who claimed they have been denied job prospects by a system of state-sponsored corruption that reserved jobs to those with connections. This patronage network meant that ministries were run as fiefdoms, with revenues from services dispensed among patrons, who include senior officials and militias.[1] Protesters defied the curfews in parts of Iraq, taking to the streets in increasing numbers, while confrontations resulted in the death of over 250 people over the course of October.[2] As the country was paralyzed by anti-government demonstrations, the country’s most important Shiʿa cleric, Ayatollah ʿAli Sistani, issued a warning to both sides to end the violence “before it’s too late.”[3]
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

23. The Politics of Lebanon’s Economic Collapse

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In the current issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin discusses the economic conditions that led to the current protest movement in Lebanon, focusing on the origins and impact of the banking crisis and how it relates to the political system.
Topic:
Politics, Financial Crisis, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

24. The Iranian Empire Cracks, at Home and Abroad

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin discusses the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy, and on its currency and governmental institutions, in particular.
Topic:
Government, Sanctions, Economy, and Currency
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East