Author: Michael Swaine / Content Type: Policy Brief / Publishing Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace / Political Geography: Asia

Author:: Michael Swaine and Minxin Pei
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The rapid deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations in recent years has raised geopolitical tensions in East Asia and could embroil China and Japan in a dangerous strategic conflict that could be threatening to U.S. interests. China's rise, Japan's growing assertiveness in foreign policy, and new security threats and uncertainties in Asia are driving the two countries increasingly further apart. Political pandering to nationalist sentiments in each country has also contributed to the mismanagement of bilateral ties. But Japan and China are not destined to repeat the past. Their leaders must ease the tensions, restore stability, and pursue a new agenda of cooperation as equals. For its part, the United States must play a more positive and active role.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

Author:: Michael Swaine
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: A remarkable improvement has taken place in U.S.–China relations during the past fourteen months, largely as a result of the 2001 terrorist attacks. Both sides have developed strong incentives to downplay their differences and seek common ground in a variety of areas, particularly the struggle against terrorism. If properly managed, this situation could lead to a more stable, mutually beneficial relationship during the next several years. However, the major obstacle to reaching this objective remains the Taiwan issue, which continues to exhibit highly destabilizing trends. In particular, political and social dynamics on Taiwan, Beijing's steady accumulation of military power, and the rapidly deepening U.S.–Taiwan security relationship could combine to increase the likelihood of conflict within the next five to seven years. To avoid this, and to establish a more sustainable basis for improved U.S.–China relations, the U.S. government must undertake policy changes, beginning with a serious effort to negotiate mutual arms reductions across the Taiwan Strait.
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, Taiwan, and Asia

Author:: Michael Swaine and Minxin Pei
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: President George W. Bush's visit to China, Japan, and South Korea in February 2002 highlights the vital importance of the Asia-Pacific region to the United States. His stop in China will be especially significant. He will arrive in Beijing on precisely the 30th anniversary of Richard Nixon's historic journey to China, and at a time of notable—if limited—improvement in relations between China and the United States after one of periodic harsh rhetoric and tense confrontation.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Asia

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