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11. Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Under President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the Philippines is modernising its military capabilities and accelerating efforts to shift focus from internal to external threats. Manila is increasing its defence acquisitions, augmenting its military partnerships and deepening its alliance with Washington – including by expanding U.S. troops’ access to Philippine bases. Why does it matter? Manila’s military modernisation effort is unfolding amid growing tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea; worries about a confrontation between the U.S. and China over Taiwan; shifting geopolitics; and uncertainty surrounding the second Trump administration’s policies. Increasingly dangerous confrontations at sea risk more strategic distrust and even armed conflict. What should be done? In balancing deterrence with diplomacy, Manila should continue military modernisation; work to enhance its alliance with the U.S.; and cultivate other defence partners. As friction with China threatens to increase, Manila should bolster crisis management channels and avoid acts that might be perceived as provocative.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Partnerships, Deterrence, Military, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Philippines, United States of America, and South China Sea

12. Asia in Flux: The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? The intensifying U.S.-China military competition is shaping threat perceptions in Asian capitals, leading many countries to revisit their defence postures and doctrines. Asia experienced its largest-ever military spending increase in the last decade, fuelling regional “militarisation”. The U.S. trade war is impeding diplomacy that might manage these dynamics. Why does it matter? Continued militarisation aggravates threat perceptions among regional powers and creates conflict risks. Concretely, it raises the probability of unintended collisions and accidents in the air and at sea that involve either the U.S. or one of its allies and partners, on one side, and China on the other. What should be done? The U.S. and China should expand defence discussions and bolster channels for communicating intentions and red lines. For deterrence purposes, President Donald Trump should underscore his support for U.S. officials who are working to strengthen regional alliances. The two countries should also continue efforts to end the U.S.-launched trade war.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, Militarization, Military, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

13. Curbing Violence in Latin America’s Drug Trafficking Hotspots

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Violence stemming from the drug trade plagues Latin America, despite decades of law enforcement campaigns involving police and the military. Criminal groups have risen in number, spread to previously unaffected countries and diversified their rackets. Competition among these groups for drug profits drives much of the violence afflicting these societies. Why does it matter? The U.S. is again demanding military-led offensives against criminal groups in the region, yet evidence from past crackdowns suggests that they have served to reconfigure supply routes, spur more complex criminal networks, accelerate efforts to corrupt state officials and generate spikes of violence that harm the most vulnerable. What should be done? Latin America should learn from its successes and failures. Better policing, economic alternatives to crime, restrictions on gun flows and, under specific conditions, negotiations with illegal groups should all play a role. Foreign states should recognise that it is counterproductive to demand tougher controls when they worsen violence.
Topic:
War on Drugs, Social Policy, Violence, Police, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:
Colombia, Latin America, Honduras, Guatemala, and Ecuador

14. Grievance and Flawed Governance in Iran’s Baluchestan

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? As Iran struggles with geopolitical tensions and economic duress, its periphery regions are facing additional challenges. Baluchestan, the southern part of Sistan and Baluchestan province, has experienced recurrent unrest. Many residents feel the government discriminates against them as a religious and ethnic minority. Militancy persists. Environmental concerns compound the difficulties. Why does it matter? The central government’s repeated pledges to reduce poverty in Baluchestan through development and improved governance have been undermined by chronic mismanagement, lack of investment and suppression of dissent. Deepening socio-economic disparities, threats of militancy and growing environmental challenges are likely to bring greater strains. What should be done? Enhancing popular participation in local governance, making economic reforms and improving environmental stewardship are the best ways to address Baluchestan’s entrenched crisis. But meaningful progress will require considerable support from the central government, notwithstanding the other huge challenges it faces at home and abroad.
Topic:
Economics, Poverty, Governance, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Baluchestan

15. Supporting Effective Policing by Lebanon’s Embattled Security Agencies

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Since October 2019, Lebanon’s economic crisis has gutted funding for the country’s security forces, including the army and national police. Overstretched, these agencies have resorted to makeshift solutions for keeping the peace, including initiatives that allow communities to help police themselves. Why does it matter? With the country’s security institutions struggling for resources, public safety in Lebanon is maintained by a patchwork of ad hoc solutions and quick fixes that cannot hold forever. As formal institutions continue to weaken, security will fray. Violence could follow, particularly in neglected and impoverished areas. What should be done? Donors should keep pressing Lebanon’s leaders to better address the economic crisis so that the government can reinvest in the security forces’ long-term viability, especially after the latest destabilising Israel-Hizbollah war. In parallel, targeted interventions by donors can help bolster the security forces’ performance and professional integrity.
Topic:
Security, Reform, Economy, and Donors
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

16. Frozen Billions: Reforming Sanctions on the Libyan Investment Authority

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? The UN Security Council has granted the Libyan sovereign wealth fund permission to reinvest some of its assets that have been frozen since 2011. But Council members remain reluctant to reform the sanctions constraining Libya’s finances while the country is divided. They also lack confidence in the fund’s competence. Why does it matter? The Security Council imposed an asset freeze on the fund during Libya’s 2011 civil war, with the aim of preventing the Qadhafi regime from plundering the fund, estimated then at over $60 billion. Over a decade after the regime’s ouster, the sanctions still act as a brake on the fund. What should be done? Council members should make further reforms to the sanctions regime to enable the fund to grow, while maintaining safeguards. Since resolution of Libya’s political crisis is not imminent, they should also define a realistic plan for long-term sanctions relief. The fund should do more to enhance its credibility and transparency.
Topic:
Sovereign Wealth Funds, Sanctions, Investment, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Libya and North America

17. Calming the Red Sea’s Turbulent Waters

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Renewed violence between the U.S. and the Houthis in Yemen has brought a sudden end to the short-lived calm in the Red Sea during the Gaza ceasefire. The end of the truce threatens a dangerous escalation, not just in these waters but in the region writ large. Why does it matter? From late 2023 to early 2025, a Houthi offensive hit over a hundred vessels allegedly connected to Israel, the U.S. or the UK, raising shipping costs and triggering an international military response. With navies from over fifteen nations operating in the Rea Sea, the risk of wider hostilities is high. What should be done? A permanent end to the Gaza war and Yemen’s internal conflict, alongside a reduction in U.S. tensions with Iran, could quell Red Sea turmoil. For now, and over the longer term, Red Sea coastal states and outside powers should work harder to curb the military build-up and foster collective security.
Topic:
Houthis, Shipping, Armed Conflict, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, United States of America, and Red Sea

18. Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Since the Arakan Army’s seizure of much of Myanmar’s Rakhine State, Rohingya armed groups have paused their turf war in Bangladesh’s refugee camps and ramped up recruitment, using religious language to mobilise refugees to fight the Rakhine armed group. Meanwhile, the Bangladeshi government has started engaging the Arakan Army. Why does it matter? A Rohingya insurgency against the Arakan Army is unlikely to succeed, but it would do grave damage to intercommunal relations in Myanmar. Rohingya in Rakhine State are likely to be caught between the armed groups, while prospects for the return of one million refugees living in Bangladesh would fade away. What should be done? Bangladesh should step up informal cross-border aid and trade with Rakhine State while curbing the influence of Rohingya armed groups in refugee camps. The Arakan Army should strive to govern for all communities in Rakhine, while foreign donors – where possible – should limit aid cuts affecting refugees.
Topic:
Insurgency, Armed Conflict, Rohingya, Arakan Army, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

19. Beyond the Election: Overcoming Bangladesh’s Political Deadlock

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bangladesh is heading into general elections with the opposition sitting out the vote after staging major protests. With dissatisfaction growing among the public, the ruling party and its rivals should hold negotiations to curb the risk of further turmoil.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Protests, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

20. The Taliban’s Neighbourhood: Regional Diplomacy with Afghanistan

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Even as many diplomats shun the Taliban regime, protesting its treatment of women and girls, emissaries of countries near Afghanistan have sought dealings with Kabul in areas like security and commerce. It is a worthwhile endeavour, and the West should not stand in the way.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Women, and Commerce
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia