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2. Finding a Way Out of Festering Conflict in India’s Manipur
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Manipur, a state in north-eastern India, has been beset with intercommunal strife since May 2023. The central government has now taken a bold step to quell the violence. It should keep acting urgently to avert a protracted crisis.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Violence, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Manipur
3. Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Criminal gangs have tightened their grip on much of Port-au-Prince, with the multinational security mission making little headway and transitional authorities mired in internal disputes. The UN Security Council should quickly decide how to respond to Haiti’s request for further assistance in restoring public safety.
- Topic:
- Security, UN Security Council, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Public Safety
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
4. Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has upended European security and created a reality in which EU and NATO member states, on one side, and Russia, on the other, view each other as fundamental threats, even as the United States is poised to become a less reliable partner for its allies. Why does it matter? An unstable Europe has economic and security repercussions globally, not least given the nuclear capabilities of Russia, on one hand, and NATO on the other. A deeper understanding of assumptions and threat perceptions on both sides can help key players manage the risks of an increasingly militarised region. What should be done? Diplomacy and deterrence are both required. Kyiv’s backers should seek a settlement to the war that ensures Ukraine’s continued capacity to defend itself. European allies should reduce reliance on the U.S. and – together with Washington – pursue risk mitigation with Russia through limits on weapons deployments and other activities.
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, Multilateralism, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
5. Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? A violent siege of Haiti’s capital in early 2024 triggered the creation of a transitional government and the eventual arrival of a Kenyan-led mission to help counter the gang threat. But infighting has paralysed the government, empowered the gangs and made it unlikely that planned elections can come off safely. Why does it matter? Haiti urgently needs a legitimate government able to lead the campaign to curb gang violence and respond to the country’s dire humanitarian emergency. But holding polls prematurely could backfire, allowing gangs to play a deciding role in the vote and entrenching their power. What should be done? Haiti’s transitional authorities should strive to overcome internal wrangling and chart a realistic path to safe elections and constitutional reform. With future U.S. funding in doubt, the UN Security Council must find a way to support either the existing international security force or a peacekeeping mission to weaken the gangs.
- Topic:
- Security, Domestic Politics, Violence, Organized Crime, and Political Transition
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
6. Finding a Way Out of Festering Conflict in India’s Manipur
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? After close to two years of violence, the Indian government has imposed President’s Rule in Manipur, putting it directly in charge of the troubled north-eastern state’s affairs. New Delhi should seize the opportunity to quell an ethnic conflict that has killed more than 260 people and displaced some 60,000. Why does it matter? Insurgent groups have resurfaced in Manipur over the past year. Failure to resolve the conflict could not just lead to more bloodshed and displacement, but also derail dialogue with the militants. It also risks destabilising other parts of north-eastern India, upsetting the hard-earned peace in neighbouring states. What should be done? Now that it has imposed President’s Rule, the central government should disarm the two sides and re-establish law and order. Finding a sustainable way out of the crisis will be difficult, but New Delhi should initiate negotiations by urgently creating a peace committee acceptable to both communities.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, Insurgency, and Civil Violence
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
7. Protecting Colombia’s Most Vulnerable on the Road to “Total Peace”
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The new Colombian government has resolved to curb violence throughout rural areas where guerrillas and criminals hold sway. Its approach – dialogue and security reform – is admirable but risky. Any deal it strikes should seek to halt all the types of coercion the illicit groups employ.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Violence, Humanitarian Crisis, Vulnerability, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
8. Sovereignty in All but Name: Israel’s Quickening Annexation of the West Bank
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Israel’s far-right government is restructuring the occupation of the West Bank, shifting governing powers from military to civilian agencies in order to gradually institute permanent control. With Israeli law reaching further into the territory and space for Palestinian independence shrinking, much of the territory has, in effect, already been annexed. Why did it happen? Israel has long built and expanded settlements and created “facts on the ground” compatible with annexation while dodging criticism by stopping short of officially declaring sovereignty over the West Bank. But far-right ministers are making unprecedented legal changes, and more prominent Israelis are calling for formal annexation. Why does it matter? Whether or not annexation is formalised, Israel’s changes are erasing remaining distinctions between life in the West Bank settlements and life in Israel. For West Bank Palestinians, to whom Israel denies basic rights, these moves diminish the possibility of either achieving statehood or living normal lives in their homeland. What should be done? Outside actors should seize the opportunity of Gaza ceasefire diplomacy to act, rather than wait for an arguably superfluous formal West Bank annexation. They should use their leverage, including trade and arms sales, to press Israel to stop the entrenchment and spread of annexation and to begin rolling it back.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Annexation, and Israeli Settlers
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank
9. After the Aid Axe: Charting a Path to Self-reliance in Afghanistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? The U.S. and other major donors are cutting aid to Afghanistan. Sharp reductions in funding leave the Taliban with greater responsibility for the country’s economy, but the regime is struggling to address widespread poverty. The harshest consequences fall upon the most vulnerable, including women and girls. Why does it matter? It may not matter a lot to world powers, because the Taliban are maintaining stability. But the exit of humanitarian organisations – combined with sanctions and other punishments imposed on the Taliban – could further unsettle a region that historically exported terrorism. Economic stagnation risks forcing Afghans to migrate, including toward Europe. What should be done? U.S. aid cuts are not likely to be reversed, so European and regional states should protect their interests by slowing the drawdown and mitigating its effects on Afghan livelihoods. Donors should urgently accelerate talks with Taliban about economic recovery, allowing for exit strategies that preserve basic services.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Foreign Aid, Taliban, Economy, Donors, and Self-Reliance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
10. Paradise Lost? Ecuador’s Battle with Organised Crime
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Once one of South America’s safest countries, Ecuador has in under a decade become its most violent, transforming into a hub of the drug trade to Europe. President Daniel Noboa’s iron-fist approach brought murder rates down at first, but violence has since soared again and crime continues unabated. Why does it matter? Ecuador’s authorities have declared the country to be in the grip of internal armed conflict, deploying soldiers to prisons and crime-hit communities. With no sign of violence falling, the government is set to double down on its tough approach, expanding cooperation with the U.S. military and private security contractors. What should be done? Crackdowns send a strong message to communities and criminals alike, but alone they tend not to overwhelm drug markets. Ecuador should do more to bring state services and licit economic opportunities to crime-hit neighbourhoods while quelling the corruption in ports, prisons and the state that helps generate the crime wave.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Violence, Organized Crime, and Drug Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Ecuador
11. Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Under President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the Philippines is modernising its military capabilities and accelerating efforts to shift focus from internal to external threats. Manila is increasing its defence acquisitions, augmenting its military partnerships and deepening its alliance with Washington – including by expanding U.S. troops’ access to Philippine bases. Why does it matter? Manila’s military modernisation effort is unfolding amid growing tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea; worries about a confrontation between the U.S. and China over Taiwan; shifting geopolitics; and uncertainty surrounding the second Trump administration’s policies. Increasingly dangerous confrontations at sea risk more strategic distrust and even armed conflict. What should be done? In balancing deterrence with diplomacy, Manila should continue military modernisation; work to enhance its alliance with the U.S.; and cultivate other defence partners. As friction with China threatens to increase, Manila should bolster crisis management channels and avoid acts that might be perceived as provocative.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Partnerships, Deterrence, Military, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Philippines, United States of America, and South China Sea
12. Asia in Flux: The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? The intensifying U.S.-China military competition is shaping threat perceptions in Asian capitals, leading many countries to revisit their defence postures and doctrines. Asia experienced its largest-ever military spending increase in the last decade, fuelling regional “militarisation”. The U.S. trade war is impeding diplomacy that might manage these dynamics. Why does it matter? Continued militarisation aggravates threat perceptions among regional powers and creates conflict risks. Concretely, it raises the probability of unintended collisions and accidents in the air and at sea that involve either the U.S. or one of its allies and partners, on one side, and China on the other. What should be done? The U.S. and China should expand defence discussions and bolster channels for communicating intentions and red lines. For deterrence purposes, President Donald Trump should underscore his support for U.S. officials who are working to strengthen regional alliances. The two countries should also continue efforts to end the U.S.-launched trade war.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, Militarization, Military, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
13. Curbing Violence in Latin America’s Drug Trafficking Hotspots
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Violence stemming from the drug trade plagues Latin America, despite decades of law enforcement campaigns involving police and the military. Criminal groups have risen in number, spread to previously unaffected countries and diversified their rackets. Competition among these groups for drug profits drives much of the violence afflicting these societies. Why does it matter? The U.S. is again demanding military-led offensives against criminal groups in the region, yet evidence from past crackdowns suggests that they have served to reconfigure supply routes, spur more complex criminal networks, accelerate efforts to corrupt state officials and generate spikes of violence that harm the most vulnerable. What should be done? Latin America should learn from its successes and failures. Better policing, economic alternatives to crime, restrictions on gun flows and, under specific conditions, negotiations with illegal groups should all play a role. Foreign states should recognise that it is counterproductive to demand tougher controls when they worsen violence.
- Topic:
- War on Drugs, Social Policy, Violence, Police, and Drug Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, Latin America, Honduras, Guatemala, and Ecuador
14. Grievance and Flawed Governance in Iran’s Baluchestan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? As Iran struggles with geopolitical tensions and economic duress, its periphery regions are facing additional challenges. Baluchestan, the southern part of Sistan and Baluchestan province, has experienced recurrent unrest. Many residents feel the government discriminates against them as a religious and ethnic minority. Militancy persists. Environmental concerns compound the difficulties. Why does it matter? The central government’s repeated pledges to reduce poverty in Baluchestan through development and improved governance have been undermined by chronic mismanagement, lack of investment and suppression of dissent. Deepening socio-economic disparities, threats of militancy and growing environmental challenges are likely to bring greater strains. What should be done? Enhancing popular participation in local governance, making economic reforms and improving environmental stewardship are the best ways to address Baluchestan’s entrenched crisis. But meaningful progress will require considerable support from the central government, notwithstanding the other huge challenges it faces at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Economics, Poverty, Governance, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Baluchestan
15. Supporting Effective Policing by Lebanon’s Embattled Security Agencies
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Since October 2019, Lebanon’s economic crisis has gutted funding for the country’s security forces, including the army and national police. Overstretched, these agencies have resorted to makeshift solutions for keeping the peace, including initiatives that allow communities to help police themselves. Why does it matter? With the country’s security institutions struggling for resources, public safety in Lebanon is maintained by a patchwork of ad hoc solutions and quick fixes that cannot hold forever. As formal institutions continue to weaken, security will fray. Violence could follow, particularly in neglected and impoverished areas. What should be done? Donors should keep pressing Lebanon’s leaders to better address the economic crisis so that the government can reinvest in the security forces’ long-term viability, especially after the latest destabilising Israel-Hizbollah war. In parallel, targeted interventions by donors can help bolster the security forces’ performance and professional integrity.
- Topic:
- Security, Reform, Economy, and Donors
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
16. Frozen Billions: Reforming Sanctions on the Libyan Investment Authority
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? The UN Security Council has granted the Libyan sovereign wealth fund permission to reinvest some of its assets that have been frozen since 2011. But Council members remain reluctant to reform the sanctions constraining Libya’s finances while the country is divided. They also lack confidence in the fund’s competence. Why does it matter? The Security Council imposed an asset freeze on the fund during Libya’s 2011 civil war, with the aim of preventing the Qadhafi regime from plundering the fund, estimated then at over $60 billion. Over a decade after the regime’s ouster, the sanctions still act as a brake on the fund. What should be done? Council members should make further reforms to the sanctions regime to enable the fund to grow, while maintaining safeguards. Since resolution of Libya’s political crisis is not imminent, they should also define a realistic plan for long-term sanctions relief. The fund should do more to enhance its credibility and transparency.
- Topic:
- Sovereign Wealth Funds, Sanctions, Investment, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North America
17. Calming the Red Sea’s Turbulent Waters
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Renewed violence between the U.S. and the Houthis in Yemen has brought a sudden end to the short-lived calm in the Red Sea during the Gaza ceasefire. The end of the truce threatens a dangerous escalation, not just in these waters but in the region writ large. Why does it matter? From late 2023 to early 2025, a Houthi offensive hit over a hundred vessels allegedly connected to Israel, the U.S. or the UK, raising shipping costs and triggering an international military response. With navies from over fifteen nations operating in the Rea Sea, the risk of wider hostilities is high. What should be done? A permanent end to the Gaza war and Yemen’s internal conflict, alongside a reduction in U.S. tensions with Iran, could quell Red Sea turmoil. For now, and over the longer term, Red Sea coastal states and outside powers should work harder to curb the military build-up and foster collective security.
- Topic:
- Houthis, Shipping, Armed Conflict, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Yemen, United States of America, and Red Sea
18. Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Since the Arakan Army’s seizure of much of Myanmar’s Rakhine State, Rohingya armed groups have paused their turf war in Bangladesh’s refugee camps and ramped up recruitment, using religious language to mobilise refugees to fight the Rakhine armed group. Meanwhile, the Bangladeshi government has started engaging the Arakan Army. Why does it matter? A Rohingya insurgency against the Arakan Army is unlikely to succeed, but it would do grave damage to intercommunal relations in Myanmar. Rohingya in Rakhine State are likely to be caught between the armed groups, while prospects for the return of one million refugees living in Bangladesh would fade away. What should be done? Bangladesh should step up informal cross-border aid and trade with Rakhine State while curbing the influence of Rohingya armed groups in refugee camps. The Arakan Army should strive to govern for all communities in Rakhine, while foreign donors – where possible – should limit aid cuts affecting refugees.
- Topic:
- Insurgency, Armed Conflict, Rohingya, Arakan Army, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
19. Beyond the Election: Overcoming Bangladesh’s Political Deadlock
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Bangladesh is heading into general elections with the opposition sitting out the vote after staging major protests. With dissatisfaction growing among the public, the ruling party and its rivals should hold negotiations to curb the risk of further turmoil.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Protests, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
20. The Taliban’s Neighbourhood: Regional Diplomacy with Afghanistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Even as many diplomats shun the Taliban regime, protesting its treatment of women and girls, emissaries of countries near Afghanistan have sought dealings with Kabul in areas like security and commerce. It is a worthwhile endeavour, and the West should not stand in the way.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Women, and Commerce
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
21. Unrest on Repeat: Plotting a Route to Stability in Peru
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- No country in Latin America suffers higher rates of dissatisfaction with democracy and government institutions than Peru. Absent remedies for political polarisation and state dysfunction, the mass protests that rocked the country in late 2022 could easily recur, bringing comparably violent crackdowns.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Political stability, Institutions, Polarization, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
22. The Unsolved Crime in “Total Peace”: Dealing with Colombia’s Gaitanistas
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Gaitanistas, Colombia’s largest and richest armed and criminal group, remain outside the government’s initiative for dialogue with all the country’s armed organisations. To avoid jeopardising other peace processes and to protect civilians, Bogotá should seek gradual talks with the Gaitanistas, while maintaining security pressure.
- Topic:
- Security, Non State Actors, Law Enforcement, Protection, and Gaitanistas
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
23. Northern Kosovo: Asserting Sovereignty amid Divided Loyalties
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Tensions are rising in Kosovo’s restive Serb-majority north, as Pristina enforces its writ against the backdrop of continuing disputes with Belgrade. The parties and outside supporters should first work on defusing the short-term risk of violence and then look for ways to foster lasting stability.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Political stability, Domestic Politics, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo
24. Stopping Famine in Gaza
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip has pushed many of its residents to the edge of death from starvation and disease. Only a prolonged ceasefire accompanied by a massive aid operation can improve the situation enough to avoid a horrific toll.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Famine, Ceasefire, Disease, Starvation, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
25. Calming the Long War in the Philippine Countryside
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Manila’s counter-insurgency campaign has whittled the Philippine communist rebellion down to a fraction of its former strength. But it has fallen short of ending the conflict. A negotiated peace preceded by confidence-building measures is the best way forward.
- Topic:
- Communism, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, Negotiation, Peacebuilding, and Confidence Building Measures
- Political Geography:
- Philippines and Asia-Pacific
26. The Generals’ Labyrinth: Crime and the Military in Mexico
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Mexico’s outgoing president has deployed more soldiers than ever to fight crime. But levels of violence remain high. His successor should set limits to the military’s role in public safety while working to sever state officials’ ties to criminals and allow better civilian law enforcement.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Law Enforcement, Organized Crime, Public Safety, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
27. Ukraine: How to Hold the Line
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The gruelling war in Ukraine continues, with Russian forces creeping forward amid fierce fighting. To stop Russia’s immediate momentum and withstand its assault, Kyiv and its backers will need to move quickly to fix problems that have hindered the Ukrainian effort to date.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
28. A Fraught Path Forward for Ukraine’s Liberated Territories
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Even as Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s onslaught, it faces the challenge of reintegrating lands its army freed from Russian occupation in 2022. With aid from donors, there is much Kyiv can do to help make these areas peaceful and productive once more.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Occupation, Donors, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
29. Bending the Guardrails: U.S. War Powers after 7 October
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Amid the Gaza war, the Biden administration has resorted to military force without asking Congress, further corroding the U.S. constitution’s checks and balances in this domain. Job one is a ceasefire but war powers reform is a vital task for the future.
- Topic:
- Reform, Constitution, Military, 2023 Gaza War, and War Powers
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
30. Man on a Wire: A Way Forward for Iran’s New President
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Islamic Republic’s ninth president assumes office with an unenviable inheritance of domestic discontent, regional turmoil and poor relations with the West. He should work to bridge the state-society gap, while outside powers should test his administration’s willingness to shift from an escalatory posture.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Leadership, Domestic Politics, Presidency, and Masoud Pezeshkian
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
31. Breaking Away: The Battle for Myanmar’s Rakhine State
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Arakan Army, an ethnic Rakhine group, is carving out a proto-state on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border. Fighting with regime forces has taken a heavy toll on civilians, including Rohingya. The Arakan Army, communal leaders and outside powers all have roles to play in fostering stability.
- Topic:
- Ethnicity, Separatism, Armed Conflict, Arakan Army, and Proto-State
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and Rakhine
32. Stemming Israeli Settler Violence at Its Root
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank are on the rise, with a spike since Israel’s present government took office and another since October 2023. Western countries should use their leverage with Israel – military aid and economic ties – to help curb this growing danger.
- Topic:
- Crime, Human Rights, Violence, Military Aid, and Israeli Settlers
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank
33. Trouble In Afghanistan’s Opium Fields: The Taliban War On Drugs
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Taliban have instituted a ban on narcotics in Afghanistan. While that has led to a massive drop in production, it is hitting the rural poor particularly hard. Foreign donors should work with the government to ensure the policy does not further undermine vulnerable populations.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Narcotics Trafficking, Law Enforcement, Taliban, Rural, and Opium
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
34. Sri Lanka’s Bailout Blues: Elections in the Aftermath of Economic Collapse
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The economy is central in Sri Lanka’s presidential race, with many voters unhappy with austerity measures the incumbent has taken following International Monetary Fund recommendations. In the interest of stability, the winner should ensure that the belt tightening’s effects are more fairly distributed in society.
- Topic:
- Elections, Austerity, IMF, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
35. The Widening Schism across the Taiwan Strait
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The new Taiwanese president has adopted a tougher stance on the island’s de facto autonomy from China. Beijing, in turn, has amped up its pressure on the island. To avoid a mounting escalation, Taipei should tone down its rhetoric and Beijing should curb its military intimidation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, Military Affairs, Crisis Management, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and Taiwan Strait
36. Dammed in the Mekong: Averting an Environmental Catastrophe
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Hydropower, sand mining and other development projects are threatening the ecological balance in the Mekong basin and the livelihoods of its residents. Policymakers would better serve the public by anticipating the problems of over-exploiting the river than by reacting to the consequences.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, Livelihoods, and Hydropower
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Southeast Asia, and Mekong River
37. The Next U.S. Administration and China Policy
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The world’s two most powerful countries – the U.S. and China – are increasingly at odds over several issues. The winner of November’s U.S. presidential election should strive to contain the tensions in this difficult relationship in service of stability in the wider world.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Elections, Donald Trump, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
38. A New Era in Bangladesh? The First Hundred Days of Reform
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Many Bangladeshis describe the downfall of Sheikh Hasina as a “second liberation”, bespeaking the widespread desire for major change. But popular expectations are double-edged. With international support, the interim government should look to score some quick wins to keep the public on side.
- Topic:
- Governance, Reform, Domestic Politics, and Sheikh Hasina
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
39. Disputed Polls and Political Furies: Handling Pakistan’s Deadlock
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Supporters of Imran Khan, Pakistan’s jailed ex-premier, took to the streets again in late November pressing the claim that February’s elections were stolen from his party. As the impasse goes on, the risk of violence is ever present. All sides should take a step back.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Violence, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
40. Managing Tensions between Algeria and Morocco
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since 2021, when Algeria cut ties with Morocco, the two neighbours have been at odds. Thus far, their quarrels have largely remained in the diplomatic realm. Western countries should help keep a lid on the disputes until the time is ripe for a rapprochement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Algeria, North Africa, Morocco, and Western Sahara
41. Fighting Climate Change in Somalia’s Conflict Zones
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Few countries are more exposed to the ill effects of climate change than Somalia. Insecurity compounds the problem, with the Al-Shabaab insurgency exploiting drought conditions as a means of social control. Mogadishu needs help in dealing with the nexus of armed conflict and weather shocks.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Insurgency, Al Shabaab, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
42. Containing Militancy in West Africa’s Park W
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Insurgents have established bases in an important nature reserve spanning parts of Benin, Burkina Faso and Niger. They pose a growing danger to local ecosystems and people living around the park. The three countries need to collaborate more closely to keep the threat at bay.
- Topic:
- Environment, Regional Cooperation, Insurgency, Natural Resources, Biodiversity, Countering Violent Extremism, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, Sahel, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Benin
43. Averting a New War between Armenia and Azerbaijan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The European Union is sending monitors to Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan, so as to lessen the danger of renewed fighting between the two countries over Nagorno-Karabakh and other issues. Brussels must give the mission the means and mandate it will need to succeed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
44. Managing Palestine’s Looming Leadership Transition
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With Mahmoud Abbas ageing, a change is drawing near at the top of the Palestinian national movement. It remains unclear how a successor will be chosen. Elections are the best way, but Abbas and his circle are likely to try other, riskier means first.
- Topic:
- Elections, Leadership, Mahmoud Abbas, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and West Bank
45. Mitigating Risks of Violence in Nigeria’s 2023 Elections
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The largest, most youthful electorate in Nigerian history will head to the polls soon to decide high-stakes presidential, parliamentary and state-level races. Numerous violent incidents have already marred the campaign. Authorities can take several steps to lessen the dangers before, during and after the vote.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
46. Taliban Restrictions on Women’s Rights Deepen Afghanistan’s Crisis
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Taliban have barred women from universities and many workplaces, compelling several aid organisations to pause operations in Afghanistan and donors to contemplate cuts to assistance. Yet the principled response remains to mitigate the harm these harsh rulings are doing to the most vulnerable Afghans.
- Topic:
- Taliban, Women, Discrimination, Conflict, Donors, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
47. An Enduring Challenge: ISIS-linked Foreigners in Türkiye
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Numerous foreign nationals with ties to ISIS have come to Türkiye since the group’s defeat in Iraq and Syria. This population presents officials with complex questions, one of which is what threat individuals might still pose. The predicament calls for a multi-pronged strategy.
- Topic:
- Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Jihad, and Countering Violent Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
48. Containing Transnational Jihadists in Syria’s North West
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The rebels who control north-western Syria are dealing harshly with ISIS cells but have not yet crushed them entirely. The best way to stop jihadists from rebounding is to consolidate the area’s ceasefire. Outside powers can also help by sending more humanitarian aid.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Islamic State, Syrian War, Transnational Actors, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
49. A Silent Sangha? Buddhist Monks in Post-coup Myanmar
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Sangha, Myanmar’s Buddhist monastic community, has largely stayed out of politics since the 2021 coup. As youth take the vanguard of resistance, a long-term shift in the country’s civic life – and a conservative backlash – could be in the offing. The issue bears close watching.
- Topic:
- Religion, Coup, and Buddhism
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia and Myanmar
50. An Island Divided: Next Steps for Troubled Cyprus
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Greek and Turkish Cypriots have moved farther apart since a failed summit in 2017, hampering cooperation in several important matters and increasing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean. Hopes for reunifying Cyprus are faint at present, but the parties can still work toward more modest goals.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Reunification, and Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean