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2. Finding a Way Out of Festering Conflict in India’s Manipur
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Manipur, a state in north-eastern India, has been beset with intercommunal strife since May 2023. The central government has now taken a bold step to quell the violence. It should keep acting urgently to avert a protracted crisis.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Violence, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Manipur
3. Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Criminal gangs have tightened their grip on much of Port-au-Prince, with the multinational security mission making little headway and transitional authorities mired in internal disputes. The UN Security Council should quickly decide how to respond to Haiti’s request for further assistance in restoring public safety.
- Topic:
- Security, UN Security Council, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Public Safety
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
4. Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has upended European security and created a reality in which EU and NATO member states, on one side, and Russia, on the other, view each other as fundamental threats, even as the United States is poised to become a less reliable partner for its allies. Why does it matter? An unstable Europe has economic and security repercussions globally, not least given the nuclear capabilities of Russia, on one hand, and NATO on the other. A deeper understanding of assumptions and threat perceptions on both sides can help key players manage the risks of an increasingly militarised region. What should be done? Diplomacy and deterrence are both required. Kyiv’s backers should seek a settlement to the war that ensures Ukraine’s continued capacity to defend itself. European allies should reduce reliance on the U.S. and – together with Washington – pursue risk mitigation with Russia through limits on weapons deployments and other activities.
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, Multilateralism, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
5. Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? A violent siege of Haiti’s capital in early 2024 triggered the creation of a transitional government and the eventual arrival of a Kenyan-led mission to help counter the gang threat. But infighting has paralysed the government, empowered the gangs and made it unlikely that planned elections can come off safely. Why does it matter? Haiti urgently needs a legitimate government able to lead the campaign to curb gang violence and respond to the country’s dire humanitarian emergency. But holding polls prematurely could backfire, allowing gangs to play a deciding role in the vote and entrenching their power. What should be done? Haiti’s transitional authorities should strive to overcome internal wrangling and chart a realistic path to safe elections and constitutional reform. With future U.S. funding in doubt, the UN Security Council must find a way to support either the existing international security force or a peacekeeping mission to weaken the gangs.
- Topic:
- Security, Domestic Politics, Violence, Organized Crime, and Political Transition
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
6. Finding a Way Out of Festering Conflict in India’s Manipur
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? After close to two years of violence, the Indian government has imposed President’s Rule in Manipur, putting it directly in charge of the troubled north-eastern state’s affairs. New Delhi should seize the opportunity to quell an ethnic conflict that has killed more than 260 people and displaced some 60,000. Why does it matter? Insurgent groups have resurfaced in Manipur over the past year. Failure to resolve the conflict could not just lead to more bloodshed and displacement, but also derail dialogue with the militants. It also risks destabilising other parts of north-eastern India, upsetting the hard-earned peace in neighbouring states. What should be done? Now that it has imposed President’s Rule, the central government should disarm the two sides and re-establish law and order. Finding a sustainable way out of the crisis will be difficult, but New Delhi should initiate negotiations by urgently creating a peace committee acceptable to both communities.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, Insurgency, and Civil Violence
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
7. Protecting Colombia’s Most Vulnerable on the Road to “Total Peace”
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The new Colombian government has resolved to curb violence throughout rural areas where guerrillas and criminals hold sway. Its approach – dialogue and security reform – is admirable but risky. Any deal it strikes should seek to halt all the types of coercion the illicit groups employ.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Violence, Humanitarian Crisis, Vulnerability, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
8. Sovereignty in All but Name: Israel’s Quickening Annexation of the West Bank
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Israel’s far-right government is restructuring the occupation of the West Bank, shifting governing powers from military to civilian agencies in order to gradually institute permanent control. With Israeli law reaching further into the territory and space for Palestinian independence shrinking, much of the territory has, in effect, already been annexed. Why did it happen? Israel has long built and expanded settlements and created “facts on the ground” compatible with annexation while dodging criticism by stopping short of officially declaring sovereignty over the West Bank. But far-right ministers are making unprecedented legal changes, and more prominent Israelis are calling for formal annexation. Why does it matter? Whether or not annexation is formalised, Israel’s changes are erasing remaining distinctions between life in the West Bank settlements and life in Israel. For West Bank Palestinians, to whom Israel denies basic rights, these moves diminish the possibility of either achieving statehood or living normal lives in their homeland. What should be done? Outside actors should seize the opportunity of Gaza ceasefire diplomacy to act, rather than wait for an arguably superfluous formal West Bank annexation. They should use their leverage, including trade and arms sales, to press Israel to stop the entrenchment and spread of annexation and to begin rolling it back.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Annexation, and Israeli Settlers
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank
9. After the Aid Axe: Charting a Path to Self-reliance in Afghanistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? The U.S. and other major donors are cutting aid to Afghanistan. Sharp reductions in funding leave the Taliban with greater responsibility for the country’s economy, but the regime is struggling to address widespread poverty. The harshest consequences fall upon the most vulnerable, including women and girls. Why does it matter? It may not matter a lot to world powers, because the Taliban are maintaining stability. But the exit of humanitarian organisations – combined with sanctions and other punishments imposed on the Taliban – could further unsettle a region that historically exported terrorism. Economic stagnation risks forcing Afghans to migrate, including toward Europe. What should be done? U.S. aid cuts are not likely to be reversed, so European and regional states should protect their interests by slowing the drawdown and mitigating its effects on Afghan livelihoods. Donors should urgently accelerate talks with Taliban about economic recovery, allowing for exit strategies that preserve basic services.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Foreign Aid, Taliban, Economy, Donors, and Self-Reliance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
10. Paradise Lost? Ecuador’s Battle with Organised Crime
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Once one of South America’s safest countries, Ecuador has in under a decade become its most violent, transforming into a hub of the drug trade to Europe. President Daniel Noboa’s iron-fist approach brought murder rates down at first, but violence has since soared again and crime continues unabated. Why does it matter? Ecuador’s authorities have declared the country to be in the grip of internal armed conflict, deploying soldiers to prisons and crime-hit communities. With no sign of violence falling, the government is set to double down on its tough approach, expanding cooperation with the U.S. military and private security contractors. What should be done? Crackdowns send a strong message to communities and criminals alike, but alone they tend not to overwhelm drug markets. Ecuador should do more to bring state services and licit economic opportunities to crime-hit neighbourhoods while quelling the corruption in ports, prisons and the state that helps generate the crime wave.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Violence, Organized Crime, and Drug Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Ecuador