Few countries are more exposed to the ill effects of climate change than Somalia. Insecurity compounds the problem, with the Al-Shabaab insurgency exploiting drought conditions as a means of social control. Mogadishu needs help in dealing with the nexus of armed conflict and weather shocks.
Topic:
Climate Change, Insurgency, Al Shabaab, and Armed Conflict
Insurgents have established bases in an important nature reserve spanning parts of Benin, Burkina Faso and Niger. They pose a growing danger to local ecosystems and people living around the park. The three countries need to collaborate more closely to keep the threat at bay.
The European Union is sending monitors to Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan, so as to lessen the danger of renewed fighting between the two countries over Nagorno-Karabakh and other issues. Brussels must give the mission the means and mandate it will need to succeed.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, and European Union
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
With Mahmoud Abbas ageing, a change is drawing near at the top of the Palestinian national movement. It remains unclear how a successor will be chosen. Elections are the best way, but Abbas and his circle are likely to try other, riskier means first.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Mahmoud Abbas, and Autocracy
The largest, most youthful electorate in Nigerian history will head to the polls soon to decide high-stakes presidential, parliamentary and state-level races. Numerous violent incidents have already marred the campaign. Authorities can take several steps to lessen the dangers before, during and after the vote.
The Taliban have barred women from universities and many workplaces, compelling several aid organisations to pause operations in Afghanistan and donors to contemplate cuts to assistance. Yet the principled response remains to mitigate the harm these harsh rulings are doing to the most vulnerable Afghans.
Topic:
Taliban, Women, Discrimination, Conflict, Donors, and Gender
Numerous foreign nationals with ties to ISIS have come to Türkiye since the group’s defeat in Iraq and Syria. This population presents officials with complex questions, one of which is what threat individuals might still pose. The predicament calls for a multi-pronged strategy.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Jihad, and Countering Violent Extremism
The rebels who control north-western Syria are dealing harshly with ISIS cells but have not yet crushed them entirely. The best way to stop jihadists from rebounding is to consolidate the area’s ceasefire. Outside powers can also help by sending more humanitarian aid.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Islamic State, Syrian War, Transnational Actors, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
The Sangha, Myanmar’s Buddhist monastic community, has largely stayed out of politics since the 2021 coup. As youth take the vanguard of resistance, a long-term shift in the country’s civic life – and a conservative backlash – could be in the offing. The issue bears close watching.
Greek and Turkish Cypriots have moved farther apart since a failed summit in 2017, hampering cooperation in several important matters and increasing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean. Hopes for reunifying Cyprus are faint at present, but the parties can still work toward more modest goals.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Reunification, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
Major gas finds in the eastern Mediterranean seabed over the last ten years have fuelled ambitions to link the region’s energy markets and, in turn, bring its countries in conflict to the negotiating table. These great expectations have proven outsized, but smaller-scale objectives are achievable.
The newly autonomous area in the southern Philippines is progressing toward full self-rule, but delays in the associated peace process and renewed skirmishes are causing concern. With donor support, regional and national authorities should work to bolster the transition in advance of crucial 2025 elections.
Topic:
Elections, Peace, Justice, Autonomy, and Reconciliation
U.S. President Joe Biden promised to end the “forever wars” launched after the 9/11 attacks. In Somalia, however, his administration has reinvigorated a flawed military-first approach to battling Islamist militants. Washington should complement those efforts with others aimed at stabilisation and political reconciliation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Violent Extremism, Islamism, Reconciliation, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, Somalia, and United States of America
Over the last fifteen years, an illicit economy – comprising everything from unregistered casinos to online scamming operations – has boomed along a stretch of the Mekong River separating Laos and Myanmar. Regional states will need to work together to rein in the criminal syndicates behind it.
Episodes of unrest in Iran often unfold similarly: the government nods to public concerns, but then resorts to repression, setting the stage for another confrontation between state and society. The pattern is clearest in peripheral provinces like Khuzestan, where a pressing grievance is water scarcity.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Governance, Services, and Civil Unrest
The U.S. is levying sanctions more than ever to hold warring parties accountable, restrict their access to resources and nudge them toward negotiations. Yet these measures can have unintended ill effects. Washington should take additional steps to alleviate these problems.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Reform, Negotiation, and Peacemaking
Millions of Palestinian refugees rely on the UN Relief and Works Agency for services and employment opportunities. But the agency’s finances are in dire straits, putting the refugees’ wellbeing at risk. Donors should step up with sustainable, predictable, multi-year funding.
Topic:
United Nations, Refugees, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
The danger of armed confrontation over Taiwan is growing, raising the spectre of a direct conflict between China and the U.S. that would have severe global repercussions. Managing this risk will require the parties to rebuild trust by shoring up decades-old understandings.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, Risk, and Coercion
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, United States of America, and Taiwan Strait
Migrants from far and wide are trekking northward through the Darién Gap, a dense jungle where they face dangers including criminal predation. Steps to improve law enforcement, ease crises in countries of origin and provide more humanitarian aid would push policy in the right direction.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Law Enforcement, Human Trafficking, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
South America, Central America, United States of America, and Darién Gap
Frictions along the India-China frontier have heated up following a burst of fighting in 2020, the first in decades. The danger of more will lurk as long as the countries disagree over where the line lies. Both should take steps to manage the mounting risks.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, Borders, and Risk