Author: Albert Keidel / Publishing Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace / Political Geography: China / Topic: International Trade and Finance

Author:: Albert Keidel
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: China's economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a new report by Albert Keidel concludes. China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. In China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, Keidel examines China's likely economic trajectory and its implications for global commercial, institutional, and military leadership.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

Author:: Albert Keidel
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Since market reforms began in 1978, China's economy has shown cyclical fluctuations. These cycles of change appear in obvious statistical patterns-faster growth and then slower growth, higher price inflation and then lower inflation, stronger investment flows and then weaker investment-and all are accompanied by other cyclical fluctuations in a range of variables and policy initiatives. Most of these fluctuations tend to move together. Their beauty is that they allow analysis of which fluctuations influence others and, by extension, which policies might make a difference in managing China's economy. In this regard, the cyclical interaction between China's formal urban economy and its rural economy is particularly relevant for the issues facing Chinese policy makers today.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

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