1. Hedging Against an Unstable China: Measures to Enhance Regional and Global Resilience
- Author:
- Alexandre Catta, Aladdin Diakun, and Clara Yoon
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Mainstream analysis on China tends to be overly optimistic, leaving a blind spot in strategic planning. While the country's socio-economic landscape has been transformed over several decades of uninterrupted growth, it faces significant domestic and international risks and constraints. Chief among these are labour insecurity and imbalances, environmental constraints and rising climatic risks, and food insecurity, all coupled with rising popular expectations for a higher overall standard of living. Major soy producers (Argentina, Brazil and the United States) should take steps to ensure the stability of China's supply. In particular, these countries should set aside reserves to help mitigate future supply shocks and price spikes resulting from climate change. Manufacturers operating in or with China should immediately begin mapping their supply chains to identify vulnerabilities associated with crisis scenarios in the country. Where specific risks are identified, they should explore supply-chain diversification to boost resilience among major trading partners. To deter China from externalizing internal stresses, international actors should raise the political costs of nationalistic unilateralism by opening more channels for dialogue, deepening institutional integration and buttressing cooperative security norms.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Environment, and Food
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel