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58701. Impunity In Drvar

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Croat extremists put Drvar into the spotlight in April 1998 with murders and riots against returning Serbs and the international community. It was the most serious outbreak of violence in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) for more than a year. Before the riots, Drvar – whose pre-war population was 97 per cent Serb – offered some cause for optimism: more Serbs had returned there than to any other region of the Federation outside of Sarajevo, and Serbs were looking to Drvar to help them assess the possibilities and risks for further return to the Federation and Croatia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia

58702. Changing Course?: Implications of the divide in Bosnian Croat politics

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The reintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has been consistently obstructed by the main Bosnian Croat party, the Croat Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZBiH). The HDZBiH is dominated by hard-liners who emphasise the consolidation of a pure Croat-inhabited territory centred on western Herzegovina, with the eventual aim of seceding and joining Croatia. This policy has received support from hard-line elements in Croatia, including the president, Franjo Tudjman.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia

58703. The Albanian Question In Macedonia: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the one former Yugoslav republic which has managed to keep itself out of the wars of Yugoslav dissolution, Macedonia has often appeared to outsiders as a beacon of hope in the Balkans. However, inter-ethnic relations in the young state -- in particular those between ethnic Albanians, who make up at least 23 percent of the population, and ethnic Macedonians -- are poor. Moreover, as fighting between ethnic Albanian separatists and the Serbian police and military escalates in the neighbouring, southern Serbian province of Kosovo, relations between communities within Macedonia are deteriorating alarmingly. As a result, Macedonia and its entire population, irrespective of their ethnic origins, stand to be among the greatest long-term losers of the Kosovo conflict. Moreover, in the event of fighting and large numbers of refugees spilling over from Kosovo -- an entirely plausible eventuality unless the killing is halted -- Macedonia is poorly prepared and the country's very existence may be imperilled.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Education, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania

58704. A View from Tirana: The Albanian Dimension of Kosovo Crisis

Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Relations between Albanians from Albania proper and their ethnic kin over the border in Kosovo are complex. Despite obvious linguistic and cultural ties, the political division of the past 80 years and Albania's isolation during the communist period have caused the two communities to evolve in a very different fashion. Moreover, the arrival of Kosovo Albanians in Albania in recent years and their influence in some unsavoury spheres of the economy have caused resentment among Albanians from Albania proper, most of whom are too preoccupied with the daily struggle for existence to devote much time or thought to national questions. The upsurge in violence in Kosovo and the influx of several thousand Kosovo Albanian refugees have, nevertheless, reminded Albanians of the links between the communities and sympathy for their ethnic kin in Kosovo is especially strong in the border areas among the Ghegs, the northern Albanians.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Albania, and Tirana

58705. The Konjic Conundrum: Why Minorities have Failed to Return to Model Open City

Publication Date:
06-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 1 July 1997 Konjic became the first municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) to be officially recognised as an Open City by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). At the time, the Open Cities Initiative was supposed to form the backbone of UNHCR's approach to minority return. To obtain Open City status Konjic had to demonstrate a willingness to accept the return of minority displaced persons. In return, the UNHCR endeavoured to reward the municipality with additional funding. However, despite large-scale financial assistance and although close to 2,000 minority families have formally registered their intent to return, reliable sources estimate that fewer than 300 minority returnees have made their way home to Konjic since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) brought the Bosnian war to a halt.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and United Nations

58706. A Tale of Two Cities: Return of Displaced Persons to Jajce and Travnik

Publication Date:
06-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Croat-controlled Jajce and Bosniac-controlled Travnik are both municipalities to which displaced persons who do not belong to the majority ethnic group have been returning in substantial numbers. Some 5,000 Bosniacs have returned to Jajce (prewar population, 44,900) and 2,500 Croats have returned to Travnik (pre-war population, 70,400) since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) came into force. These 7,500 “minority returns” constitute nearly 20 per cent of the total estimated 40,000 minority returns throughout the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), although the combined current populations of Jajce and Travnik (less than 75,000) account for less than 3 percent of the Federation's current population. These two municipalities in the Middle Bosnia Canton thus may be considered successful examples of minority return, if not yet reintegration. Nevertheless, at different times and to varying degrees, the authorities in Jajce and Travnik have obstructed return movements.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

58707. Inventory of a Windfall: Milosevic's Gains from the Kosovo Dialogue

Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
When on 15 May 1998 Slobodan Milosevic met with Ibrahim Rugova it was the first time that the Yugoslav president had met with an Albanian leader from Kosovo in close to a decade. The event, heralding weekly talks between Kosovo's Albanians and the Serbian government, has thus been hailed as a "dramatic turn-about" and "a first step toward peace in Kosovo". However, the fact that, after so many years of stale-mate, some kind of negotiations have begun, should not in itself be a reason for euphoria. Key to the success of any talks is the framework within which they take place. Negotiations concerning the future status of Kosovo may, as a result of the concessions offered to the Yugoslav president, have got off to an inauspicious start.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

58708. Minority Return or Mass Relocation?

Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
International organisations working to help displaced Bosnians return to their pre-war homes -- arguably the most important element of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) -- have declared 1998 the “year of minority returns”. Four months into the year, however, there is the distinct possibility that 1998 may instead prove to be the “year of mass relocation”. This need not be the case. The political climate in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has shifted in recent months and, despite major setbacks, including in Drvar, minority return success stories are already beginning to emerge. In order to turn the current trickle of minority returns into a steady flow, the lessons of past failures and successes have to be learned.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

58709. Again, the Visible Hand: Slobodan Milosevic's Manipulation of the Kosovo Dispute

Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo, an impoverished region at the southern tip of Serbia, is drawing ineluctably closer to war with each passing day. By night, men smuggle guns and ammunition from Albania to an Albanian militia determined to wrest Kosovo away from Serbia. The militia's fighters, angered by years of Serbian police violence against Kosovo's 90-percent Albanian majority, have killed Serbian police officers and murdered Albanians deemed to be loyal to the Serbian state.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

58710. Rebuilding a Multi-Ethnic Sarajevo: The need for Minority Returns

Publication Date:
02-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
To many who followed the Bosnian war from abroad, Sarajevo symbolised Bosnia and Herzegovina's rich tradition of multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity. While the Bosnian capital came under daily bombardment from Republika Srpska forces, its citizens of all faiths, Bosniacs, Serbs, Croats and others, suffered and survived together in the spirit of tolerance in which they had lived together for centuries. For multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity to re-emerge in Bosnia after the war, this spirit must be rekindled in peace.
Topic:
Demographics, Ethnic Conflict, and Migration
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

58711. A Hollow Promise? Return of Bosnian Serb Displaced Persons to Drvar

Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In Bosnia's local elections on 13 and 14 September 1997, parties representing displaced Serbs from Croat-held Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc won either a majority or a plurality of council seats in these three municipalities in Canton 10 of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since then, displaced Serbs have begun spontaneously moving back to their homes with the result that by mid-January, some 800 heads of households had returned to Drvar alone. Other displaced Serbs in Western Republika Srpska and in Brcko are monitoring the fortunes of these returnees closely. If Serbs are able to return to Drvar, this will free up housing in Republika Srpska for displaced Bosniacs and Croats. If, however, their return to Drvar is obstructed, displaced Serbs elsewhere will be discouraged from attempting to return to other Federation municipalities.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

58712. Third Party Arms Transfers: Requirements for the 21st Century

Author:
John D. Macomber and Charles McC. Mathias
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Can the United States collaborate with foreign nations in armaments development and production without jeopardizing US national security? This question - in light of America's global security obligations - demands a satisfactory answer. The economic and political advantages of greater international cooperation are significant. Benefits from cooperation include improved interoperability of weapons and equipment used by US allies and partners in operations with the United States, reduction in production costs, and preservation of a defense industrial base among US allies. Yet, considerations of national security are equally cogent.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and America

58713. Trade Patterns, FDI, and Industrial Restructuring of Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Paolo Guerrieri
Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
This paper analyses changes in the trade patterns of Central/Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU), and the potential role in the global/European division of labor of these transforming economies. In the reform period (1989–1995) trade pattern of Central and Eastern Europe has experienced significant changes. The most pronounced trend was the strong expansion of trade with the OECD countries, in particular with the European Union, whereas CMEA intraregional trade literally collapsed. This massive geographical reorientation of trade has determined also significant changes in the commodity composition of trade of CEE in the same period.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

58714. Coming to Terms with a Larger Europe: Options for Economic Integration

Author:
Helen Wallace
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Two contending logics have so far dominated the debate on how the countries of central and eastern Europe (CEECs) might become part of a single European economic space. One is a common sense and incremental logic of economic liberalisation; and the other is the logic of conventional enlargement of the European Union (EU). The first incremental logic starts from the simple proposition that the establishment and sustenance of market economies in the CEECs requires their inclusion in a multilateral regime of trade and payments as quickly as possible, and their coverage by the kinds of market regulation mechanisms that have now been established in western Europe through the single European market (SEM). The second logic of EU enlargement requires the incumbent EU members to accept the accession of the CEECs (or some of them) as full family members. It would mean the application of the whole range of EU policies across pan-Europe.
Topic:
International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

58715. The External Sector, the State and Development in Eastern Europe

Author:
Barry Eichengreen and Richard Kohl
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Early optimists hoped that Eastern Europe might be able to emulate the high-performance economies of Asia once the shock of liberalization was absorbed. The ingredients of the East Asian “miracle,” in this view, were rapid accumulation based on high investment in physical and human capital, productivity growth based on technology transfer through licensing and direct foreign investment, rapidly expanding exports able to support industrial specialization and scale economies, and a strong state capable of guiding the development process and solving coordination problems. Emulating this recipe could provide the basis, it was hoped, for the expansion of exports and buoyant economic growth more generally.
Topic:
Development, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

58716. De Gaulle and Europe: Historical Revision and Social Science Theory

Author:
Andrew Moravcsik
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The thousands of books and articles on Charles de Gaulle's policy toward European integration, whether written by historians, political scientists, or commentators, universally accord primary explanatory importance to the General's distinctive geopolitical ideology. In explaining his motivations, only secondary significance, if any at all, is attached to commercial considerations. This paper seeks to reverse this historiographical consensus by the four major decisions toward European integration taken under de Gaulle's Presidency: the decisions to remain in the Common Market in 1958, to propose the Fouchet Plan in the early 1960s, to veto British accession to the EC, and to provoke the “empty chair” crisis in 1965-1966, resulting in “Luxembourg Compromise.” In each case, the overwhelming bulk of the primary evidence—speeches, memoirs, or government documents—suggests that de Gaulle's primary motivation was economic, not geopolitical or ideological. Like his predecessors and successors, de Gaulle sought to promote French industry and agriculture by establishing protected markets for their export products. This empirical finding has three broader implications: (1) For those interested in the European Union, it suggests that regional integration has been driven primarily by economic, not geopolitical considerations—even in the “least likely” case. (2) For those interested in the role of ideas in foreign policy, it suggests that strong interest groups in a democracy limit the impact of a leader's geopolitical ideology—even where the executive has very broad institutional autonomy. De Gaulle was a democratic statesman first and an ideological visionary second. (3) For those who employ qualitative case-study methods, it suggests that even a broad, representative sample of secondary sources does not create a firm basis for causal inference. For political scientists, as for historians, there is in many cases no reliable alternative to primary-source research.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Organization, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and France

58717. Charismatic Leadership and Democratization: A Weberian Perspective

Author:
Michael Bernhard
Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Given the history of charismatic dictatorship in this century, charismatic leaders have been seen as threats to democracy. At the same time, periods of accelerated political change, such as the period of post-Communist democratization in Eastern and Central Europe, also give rise to charismatic leaders. This paper establishes the conditions under which charismatic leaders are compatible with democracy. Using a framework drawn from Max Weber's sociological writings the paper argues that charismatic leadership is only compatible with democracy when charisma is routinized in a rational-legal direction. In that routinization, however, rational-legal procedures (the rule-boundedness of power) must predominate over charismatic elements (the arbitrary and personal exercise of power). When this balance is reversed the result will be dictatorship. This discussion highlights the fact that both modern dictatorship and democracy legitimate themselves by a combination of charismatic and rational elements. It then considers whether Weber's theory can help us to understand the impact of the charismatic leadership on post-communist democratization by considering the experience of Havel in the Czech Republic, Wa__sa in Poland, and Yeltsin in Russia. It concludes with a discussion of charisma and its role in both democracy and dictatorship in the contemporary era. It finds that the similarity in the way in which modern democracy and dictatorship are legitimated augers better for the viability of authoritarian regimes than the many recent accounts which predict a diminished prospect for dictatorship in the current era might suggest.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

58719. Collective Management of International Financial Crises

Author:
Saori N. Katada
Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
The world has experienced many financial crises. Despite numerous research and policy efforts in prevention to present them at of large scale, the global economy has not seen economists' (and investors') Nirvana of financial globalization without the occasional crises. On the contrary, the increasing dynamism and changing nature of financial flows across national borders seem to have created a larger number of new problems for creditors, debtors and international financial institutions. That has typically been true for middle income countries in Latin America and Asia and, very recently, in Eastern Europe, which have been integrated into the international financial system. During the two decades between the late 1970s and the late 1990s, three major sets of financial crises originated from those middle income countries, intensifying concerns for international financial stability.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, East Asia, Latin America, Central America, and North America

58720. International Financial Markets as Sources of Crises or Discipline

Author:
Thomas D. Willett
Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Two major views dominate policy discussions of the role of international capital flows in the global political economy. While both believe that high capital mobility is eroding national sovereignty, one sees this as a positive step, that constrains governments' tendencies to follow overexpansionary macroeconomic policies for domestic political gain and promotes convergence toward low rates of inflation. Advocates of this viewpoint would typically agree with Haggard and Maxfield (1996) that “Increased financial integration holds governments hostage to foreign exchange and capital markets, forcing greater fiscal and monetary discipline than they might otherwise choose” (p. 36). This view is implied by most of the currently most popular economic models. The second viewpoint sees international capital markets as capricious followers of fads and fashions that pose serious challenges to domestic financial stability. The statements of Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister of Malaysia are typical of this view.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance