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55502. Montenegro's Socialist People's Party: A Loyal Opposition?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The assertion of the primacy of Serbian rights over all other peoples by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has driven nearly every nationality of the former Yugoslavia toward the Republic's exits. Even Montenegro, once Serbia's closest political and military ally, has not been immune from the turmoil that Slobodan Milosevic has created and has opted to distance itself from Belgrade's controlling influence.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro
55503. Bosnia's Municipal Elections 2000: Winners and Losers
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The international community can draw a degree of comfort from the results of Bosnia's 8 April 2000 municipal elections. Overall, the voting was free of violence and more freeand fair than any previous election held in Bosnia. Nationalism may not be on the run yet—witness the strength of indicted Bosnian Serb war criminal Radovan Karadzic's Serbian Democratic Party (SDS)—but moderate leaders are making inroads and increasing numbers of voters seem to be paying attention to their messages.
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Serbia
55504. Reunifying Mostar: Opportunities for Progress
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Reunification of Mostar is key to the reintegration of separatist Herzegovinian Bosnian Croats into Bosnia. After years of fruitless post-Dayton efforts to wean the Bosnian Croats from Zagreb and reorient them toward a constructive role in Bosnia, the international community at long last has the capability to achieve this goal. The success of the democratic forces in Croatia in the January-February elections there has brought reliable partners to power with whom the international community can work in Bosnia. Policy initiatives in Herzegovina will not require new resources and, if achieved, can lead to a reduction in the international profile in Bosnia. Failure to act on these opportunities will cripple the Bosnian peace effort and weaken the new government in Croatia. These issues present serious policy challenges.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia
55505. Montenegro: In the Shadow of the Volcano
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Montenegro has been a crisis-in-waiting for two years now, with Belgrade opposing efforts by a reform-minded government under President Milo Djukanovic to distance itself ever further from its federal partner Serbia. Federal President Slobodan Milosevic has steadily escalated the pressure against Djukanovic, probing the extent of NATO support for Montenegro and pushing the Montenegrins toward a misstep that might undermine their international backing. Each of the three possible policy-paths facing the Montenegro government, however, is unappealing in its own way:Going ahead with a referendum on independence for Montenegro would risk radicalising a population still peacefully divided over the issue, and would offer maximum provocation to Belgrade, which retains a powerful military presence in Montenegro. Maintaining the status quo may offer a better chance of avoiding open confrontation with Belgrade, but it leaves Montenegro in a limbo. Its friends are not offering all the help they could, on the grounds that it is not a sovereign state; but prospects for selfgenerated income through inward investment or revival of the tourist industry are still hostage to international risk perceptions. Achieving rapprochement with the Serbian government would be possible if Milosevic went. But Montenegro cannot afford to leave its future in the unsure hands of the present Serbian opposition. And as the atmosphere in Serbia steadily worsens, political and public opinion in Montenegro appears to grow ever less willing to compromise.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Montenegro
55506. What Happened to the KLA?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The end of the war over Kosovo brought the transformation of the guerrilla army that started it. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA - or UÇK in the Albanian acronym) has been formally demilitarised, but in various manifestations it remains a powerful and active element in almost every area of Kosovo life. Some welcome its continued influence; others fear it; many are concerned about it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania
55507. Albania: State of the Nation
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- During the spring of 1999, more than 450,000 Kosovo Albanian refugees flooded into Albania, many of them forcibly deported by Serb forces in Kosovo. Despite Albania's acute poverty, many Albanians opened their homes to provide shelter to the incoming refugees and the government spared no effort, organising humanitarian relief and putting the entire country at the disposal of NATO. As a result, in the eyes of its people, Albania has secured its position as the spiritual motherland of all ethnic Albanians, and as such expects to play a prominent role in future pan-Albanian aspirations.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania
55508. Denied Justice: Individuals Lost in a Legal Maze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Thousands of people try to find their way daily through an immensely complicated labyrinth established by the three separate and very often conflicting legal systems in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Evidence presented in this report, the third in the ICG legal project series, proves that unexplained time delays, dubious application of law and blatant ethnic discrimination contribute greatly to the ad hoc nature of Bosnian justice.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
55509. Albanians in Serbian Prisons: Kosovo's Unfinished Business
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With the immense challenges facing the international community in its effort to secure and rebuild Kosovo, one critical outstanding matter that has received very little attention is the ongoing detention in Serbian prisons of several thousand Kosovar Albanians. Arrested by Serbian forces in the course of the Kosovo conflict, these prisoners were hastily transferred to Serbian jails and penitentiaries in the wake of the Kumanovo military-technical agreement, which ended the NATO air campaign and established a timetable for the withdrawal from Kosovo of all Serb forces.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania
55510. On Currency Crises and Contagion
- Author:
- Morris Marcel Fratzscher
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Many economists have started to concede in recent years that contagion and self-fulfilling beliefs of investors have played a crucial role in the emerging market financial crises of the 1990s. Despite the progress on the theoretical side, however, empirical models of currency crises have been shown to perform poorly (Berg and Pattillo 1998) and many economists and policy institutions have been struggling to develop adequate models to predict future financial crises (Kaminsky et al. 1997, Goldstein et al. 2000).
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
55511. Strengthening the International Financial Architecture: Where Do We Stand?
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- It's not easy to get senior economic officials worked up about the functioning of the international monetary system. Usually, they are preoccupied with the more immediate issues surrounding the national and global economic outlook. But the Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95 and, even more so, the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 made crisis management important for the economic outlook and pushed many of the otherwise arcane issues in the so-called “international financial architecture” (hereafter, IFA) to the front burner of economic policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Mexico
55512. Transatlantic Issues in Electronic Commerce
- Author:
- Catherine L. Mann
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The global and dynamic e-commerce marketplace will increasingly impact the nature of national and international economic and government relations. This paper highlights three areas where the United States and European Union (EU) governments differ in their approaches as to how best to serve their domestic constituencies: treatment of trade flows, approach to tax regimes, manner of protecting personal data. Because the Internet marketplace is global but policy jurisdictions remain local, policy conflicts can develop. Policymakers on both sides need to harness technology and promote incentives for the private sector to help solve problems caused by the jurisdictional overlap. In addition to cross-border jurisdictional overlap, problems within a country can develop from issue convergence and policy overlap. That is, because the e-commerce marketplace is so integrated, the policy toward handling one issue, even within the national context, has implications for the policy set that is available to policymakers on other issues. Therefore, policies within a country must be more carefully meshed with each other with an eye toward consistency in the face of the forces of electronic commerce..
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
55513. Inflation, Monetary Transparency, and G3 Exchange Rate Volatility
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Short-term volatility in G3 bilateral exchange rates has been a fact of life since the beginning of the post-Bretton Woods float. It has been established, surprisingly, that this volatility is not only disproportionately large relative to the variation in relative macroeconomic fundamentals of Germany, Japan, and the United States, but is in fact largely unrelated to them. The apparent disconnect between fundamentals and dollar-yen and dollar-euro exchange rate fluctuations has led to perennial complaints about persistent exchange rate “misalignments,” and their real effects on the G3 (and other) economies, giving rise in turn to recurring proposals for government policies to limit this volatility. The idea that volatility reflects nothing more than the (perhaps rational, certainly profit-seeking) behavior of foreign exchange traders seems to give justification for a policy response. Yet, the disjunction between macroeconomic expectations and the volatility seems to indicate as well that some deviation from domestic monetary policy goals would be necessary to intervene against exchange rate swings.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Germany
55514. The New Asian Challenge
- Author:
- C. Fred Bergsten
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The initial postwar challenge from East Asia was economic. Japan crashed back into global markets in the 1960s, became the largest surplus and creditor country in the 1980s, and was viewed by many as the world's dominant economy by 1990. The newly industrialized countries (Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) followed suit on a smaller but still substantial scale shortly thereafter. China only re-entered world commerce in the 1980s but has now become the second largest economy (in purchasing power terms), the second largest recipient of foreign direct investment inflows, and the second largest holder of monetary reserves. Indonesia and most of Southeast Asia grew at 7 percent for two or more decades. The oil crises of the 1970s and the financial crises of the late 1990s injected temporary setbacks but East Asia has clearly become a third major pole of the world economy, along with North America and Western Europe.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Europe, Israel, Taiwan, East Asia, Asia, North America, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong
55515. Electronic Commerce in Developing Countries: Issues for Domestic Policy and WTO Negotiations
- Author:
- Catherine L. Mann
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Electronic commerce and its related activities over the internet can be the engines that improve domestic economic well-being through liberalization of domestic services, more rapid integration into globalization of production, and leap-frogging of available technology. Since electronic commerce integrates the domestic and global markets from its very inception, negotiating on trade issues related to electronic commerce will, even more than trade negotiations have in the past, demand self-inspection of key domestic policies, particularly in telecommunications, financial services, and distribution and delivery. Because these sectors are fundamental to the workings of a modern economy, liberalization here will rebound to greater economic well-being than comparable liberalization in more narrowly focussed sectors. Thus, the desire to be part of the e-commerce wave can be a powerful force to erode domestic vested interests that have slowed the liberalization of these sectors.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
55516. International Economic Agreements and the Constitution
- Author:
- Richard M. Goodman and John M. Frost
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- International agreements, such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), generally aim to facilitate the free flow of goods and services among nations. The U.S. Supreme Court has developed a jurisprudence similarly aiming to facilitate the free flow of goods and services among the several states. That jurisprudence has developed from litigation challenging the constitutionality of state actions on the basis of the Commerce and Supremacy Clauses of the Constitution (art. I, § 8, cl. 3, and art. VI, cl. 2). In some subject areas, Commerce Clause decisions closely align with international agreements. In other areas, either or both fall short of achieving economic integration.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States and North America
55517. U.S. - Japan Energy Cooperation to Help Achieve Sustainable Energy Development in Asia
- Author:
- Richard L. Lawson, Donald L. Guertin, Shinji Fukukawa, and Kazuo Shimoda
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Given the dramatic increases in economic growth, energy use and attendant environmental problems in Asia, it is timely for Japan and the United States to increase their bilateral cooperation and cooperation with other Asian countries in the energy field as an integral part of their efforts to help Asia achieve sustainable development. The magnitude of growth in Asia in energy use is well illustrated, for example, by a projected doubling in China from 1990 to 2020. Projections indicate energy demand in China could triple by 2050, relative to 1990. These increases are not only of great significance to individual Asian economies, but also globally, as projections indicate that most of the growth in energy demand in the next century will occur in Asia (and principally in China and India). Achievement of such growth in energy demand, to improve the living standards of the 3.3 billion Asians that now represent about half of the world's population, is essential from the viewpoint of equity, social development and the economic well-being of people throughout Asia.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
55518. European Views of National Missile Defense
- Author:
- Stephen Cambone, Christopher J. Makins, Ivo Daalder, and Stephen J. Hadley
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A delegation under the auspices of the Atlantic Council of the United States visited Berlin, Brussels, London and Paris from 10 to 14 July 2000 for discussions with government officials and nongovernmental experts about the proposed deployment of missile defenses of U.S. national territory. The purpose of the trip was to engage a range of European leaders in in-depth discussions of a broad range of issues associated with missile defense. This report reflects the visitors' assessment of what they heard and the conclusions they drew in terms of U.S. policy and relations with the European allies.
- Topic:
- Security and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
55519. International Cooperation and the Logic of Networks: Europe and the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM)
- Author:
- David Bach
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Contrary to the United States, the European Union (EU) has established a single technical standard for second generation wireless telecommunications. The successful creation of the pan-European digital standard GSM is of utmost industrial significance. It has provided Europe's equipment manufacturing industry with a market large enough to exploit economies of scale and has thus enabled European manufacturers to become world leaders in the mobile communications industry. Given the centrality and crucial importance of wireless technology for the emerging information society and digital economy, the story of the establishment of GSM is of interest to anybody studying the growth and trajectory of digital technology and its commercial applications. After all, the nature of digital economies implies that control over network evolution translates into control over the architecture of the digital marketplace, as François Bar has argued. Hence, control of and influence over network evolution has global economic ramifications. In addition, however, the political process that enabled GSM featured pivotal supranational leadership in the form of European Commission initiatives in a domain that has traditionally been dominated by national players. Grasping standard setting in the case of GSM thus also contributes to an understanding of the changing governance patterns of the European economy and consequently is of interest to anybody concerned with issues of European integration as a whole.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
55520. The Political Economy of Open Source Software
- Author:
- Steven Weber
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Coca-Cola sells bottles of soda to consumers. Consumers drink the soda (or use it in any other way they like). Some consumers, out of morbid curiosity, may read the list of ingredients on the bottle. But that list of ingredients is generic. Coca-Cola has a proprietary 'formula' that it does not and will not release. The formula is the knowledge that makes it possible for Coke to combine sugar, water, and a few other readily available ingredients in particular proportions and produce something of great value. The bubbly stuff in your glass cannot be reverse-engineered into its constituent parts. You can buy it and you can drink it, but you can't understand it in a way that would empower you to reproduce it or improve upon it and distribute your improved cola drink to the rest of the world.
- Topic:
- International Law, Political Economy, and Science and Technology
55521. Tools for Thought: What Is New and Important About the "E-conomy"?
- Author:
- John Zysman, Stephen S. Cohen, and J. Bradford DeLong
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- There are eras when advancing technology and changing business organizations transform economies and societies. Such episodes do not just amplify productivity in one leading sector. Instead, they give all economic sectors powerful new "tools." Today we are living through such a transformation in our economic landscape, a transformation that warrants a new name: the "E-conomy." Information technologies, data communication and data processing technologies, are tools to manipulate, organize, transmit, and store information in digital form. They are tools for thought that amplify brainpower in the way the technologies of the Industrial Revolution amplified muscle power.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
55522. Creating Stability: National Preferences and the Origins of European Monetary System
- Author:
- Mark Aspinwall
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This essay compares the preferences of France, Italy, and Britain on the creation of the European Monetary System in 1978-1979, especially the Exchange Rate Mechanism, which stabilised nominal exchange rates. My claim is that the different conclusions reached by the governments (France and Italy in, Britain out) cannot be explained by economic circumstances or by interests, and I elaborate an intervening institutional variable which helps explain preferences. Deducing from spatial theory that where decisionmakers 'sit' on the left-right spectrum matters to their position on the EMS, I argue that domestic constitutional power-sharing mechanisms privilege certain actors over others in a predictable and consistent way. Where centrists were in power, the government's decision was to join. Where left or right extremists were privileged, the government's decision was negative. The article measures the centrism of the governments in place at the time, and also reviews the positions taken by the national political parties in and out of government. It is intended to contribute to the growing comparativist literature on the European Union, and to the burgeoning literature on EU-member-state relations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Iraq, Europe, and France
55523. East-West Integration and the Changing German Production Regime: A Firm-Centered Approach
- Author:
- Katharina Bluhm
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- With the opening of Central Eastern Europe German firms have gained access to low labor costs in close geographical proximity. Intense debate about the impact this has had on the “German model” of capitalism has ensued. This paper argues that, in fact, production shifts are taking place in which cost-cutting motives are an important guideline. German firms, however, hesitate to aggressively utilize this new option in their internal domestic labor policy. Rather, firms tend to avoid confrontations with their employees on “job exports”. The necessity of collaboration on both sides of the border, the relative strength of workers in the domestic high-quality production system, and the constraints of industrial relations provide explanations for the moderate behavior. So far, the outcome of the bargained reorganization is that firms gain more labor flexibility, performance-related differentiation, and labor-cost rationalization without challenging the institutionalized long-term employment commitments for their core workforce.
- Topic:
- Economics and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Germany
55524. “Social Democracy, Globalization and Governance: Why is there no European Left Program in the EU?”
- Author:
- Christopher S. Allen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses globalization and governance in the EU by attempting to generate some plausible hypotheses that might explain the policy choices of the 12 out of 15 European democratic left governments. With all of the discussion in recent years of a democratic deficit, and then need to maintain a “social Europe,” why have these governments not produced more explicit left-wing policies?
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
55525. The Legal Construction of Membership: Nationality Law in Germany and the United States
- Author:
- Mathias Bös
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The argument of this paper is that several empirical puzzles in the citizenship literature are rooted in the failure to distinguish between the mainly legal concept of nationality and the broader, political concept of citizenship. Using this distinction, the paper analysis the evolution of German and American nationality laws over the last 200 years. The historical development of both legal structures shows strong communalities. With the emergence of the modern system of nation states, the attribution of nationality to newborn children is ascribed either via the principle of descent or place of birth. With regard to the naturalization of adults, there is an increasing ethnization of law, which means that the increasing complexities of naturalization criteria are more and more structured along ethnic ideas. Although every nation building process shows some elements of ethnic self-description, it is difficult to use the legal principles of ius sanguinis and ius soli as indicators of ethnic or non-ethnic modes of community building.
- Topic:
- Government and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Germany
55526. When Labour and Capital Collude: The Varieties of Welfare Capitalism and Early Retirement in Europe, Japan and the USA
- Author:
- Bernhard Ebbinghaus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The institutionalisation of early retirement has become a universal feature of postwar industrial economies, though there are significant cross-national variations. This paper studies the impact of different types of welfare regimes, production systems and labour relations on early exit from work. After an analysis of the main trends, the paper discusses the costs and benefits of early retirement for the various actors — labour, capital and the state — at different levels. The paper outlines both the “pull” and “push” factors of early exit. It first compares the distinct welfare state regimes and private occupational pensions in their impact on early retirement. Then it looks at the labour-shedding strategies inherent to particular employment regimes, production systems and financial governance structures. Finally, the impact of particular industrial relations systems, and especially the role of unions is discussed. The paper finds intricate “institutional complementarities” between particular welfare states, production regimes and industrial relations systems, and these structure the incentives under which actors make decisions on work and retirement. The paper argues that the “collusion” between capital, labour and the state in pursuing early retirement is not merely following a labour-shedding strategy to ease mass unemployment, but also caused by the need for economic restructuration, the downsizing pressures from financial markets, the maintenance of peaceful labour relations, and the consequences of a seniority employment system.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Europe, and East Asia
55527. The Carter Center News, July-December 2000
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- The eyes of the world were fixed on recounts and judicial twists in the 2000 U.S. presidential election for weeks last fall. When the suspense finally lifted and a winner emerged, the experience left Americans wiser and more educated about their own democracy.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, Human Rights, Migration, Science and Technology, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
55528. The Carter Center News, January-June 2000
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- During the first six months of this year, four Latin American countries exercised democracy by scheduling elections. The Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela laid the groundwork for electoral processes, though only the Dominican Republic and Mexico actually held elections as planned (see also “What Latin America's Elections Really Mean,” Page 4). In all four cases, however, Carter Center delegates were on site to monitor the proceedings. Below are the Center's observations, listing the most recent election first.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, Human Rights, Migration, Science and Technology, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, Venezuela, Mexico, and Peru
55529. Challenges to Democracy in the Americas
- Author:
- Hugo Chávez, Manuel Antonio Garretón M., Porfirio Muñoz Ledo, Kenneth H. Jr. MacKay, Philip Oxhorn, Kenneth Roberts, Matthew Soberg Shugart, Jorge Vargas Cullel, Laurence Whitehead, and Adolfo E. Nanclares
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Recent events in Latin American and the Carribean, including the election of a former coup leader in Venezuela, the third-term candidacy of Peru President Alberto Fujimori, a coup in Ecuador, and the failed constitutional reform in Guatemala and subsequent election of a party led by retired military officials, have led to serious concerns about the direction of democracy in the region. Americas Program's Council of Presidents and Prime Ministers of the Americas selected the conference topic as an expression of their concern. Held in October 2000 at The Carter Center, the conference addressed the resurgence of populist leaders, the decline of political parties, the need for greater public security, and the many ways the military continues to intervene in Latin American politics.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- America and Latin America
55530. Observing the 1999 Elections in Mozambique: Final Report
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Shortly after Mozambique gained independence in 1975, civil war erupted and continued to rage for the next 16 years. In 1992 a peace agreement was negotiated, and in 1994 the country's first multiparty elections were held under U.N. auspices. President Joaquim Chissano and the ruling Frelimo party won the presidency and a majority in Parliament. Renamo, the former guerilla movement headed by Afonso Dhlakama, received nearly 34 percent of the presidential ballots and won 112 of the 250 seats in parliament.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Development
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Nations, and Mozambique
55531. Defense Monitor: Montenegro: Looking War In The Face
- Author:
- Tomas Valasek
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Few other places in the world seem as close to war as Montenegro, Serbia s smaller partner in the all-but defunct Yugoslav Federation. Montenegro is poised to clash with troops carrying the federal flag of Yugoslavia but in reality serving only the Serbian government of Slobodan Milosevic. The two republics fell out over the nature of the political system: Serbia s government is turning increasingly dictatorial and autocratic while Montenegro is a fledgling democracy. Unlike all previous conflicts in the former Yugoslavia, ethnic differences — which in the case of Serbia and Montenegro are blurry to the point of nonexistent — do not play a major role.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and War
- Political Geography:
- Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro
55532. Defense Monitor: NMD Update: The Real World Intrudes
- Author:
- Colonel Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- IN AN EARLIER DEFENSE MONITOR(Volume XXIX, Issue 1, 2000), we reported on the status of the National Missile Defense program (NMD). At that time the success rate of NMD was 50%, although even the October 2, 1999 success was qualified because the kill vehicle first homed on the single decoy until, at the last moment, it finally detected its true target nearby.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
55533. Defense Monitor: Landmines Remain Issue in Korea
- Author:
- Rachel Stohl
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Three years ago the international community joined forces to ban landmines. While the majority of the countries of the world worked to reach an agreement, several countries remained opposed to the effort. Nonetheless, today the 1997 Ottawa Treaty banning the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of anti-personnel mines has been signed by 137 countries and ratified by 95. The Treaty entered into force in March 1999, becoming binding international law more quickly than any treaty in history.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Ottawa
55534. Defense Monitor: The NPT Review — Last Chance?
- Author:
- Rear Admiral Eugene Carroll
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Just five years ago the United States led a strong global effort to achieve indefinite extension of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1970 which was due to expire on its 25th anniversary in April, 1995. U.S. leaders exerted substantial diplomatic pressure on nations less than enthusiastic about extending the NPT regime in order to ensure perpetuation of this critically important element of the global arms control structure, one very much in U.S. security interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
55535. Forward Presence and Peacetime "Shaping": Comparative Analysis of Great Power Experiences
- Author:
- Edward Rhodes, Jonathan DiCicco, Sarah Milburn, and Tom Walker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Security and Democracy
- Abstract:
- The United States has a range of tools at its disposal with which to shape the international environment in ways favorable to U.S. interests and global security. Shaping activities enhance U.S. security by promoting regional security and preventing or reducing. . . [a] wide range of diverse threats.... These measures adapt and strengthen alliances and friendships, maintain U.S. influence in key regions and encourage adherence to international norms.... The U.S. military plays an essential role in...shaping the international environment in ways that protect and promote U.S. interests. Through overseas presence and peacetim e engagement activities such as defense cooperation, security assistance, and training and exercises with allies and friends, our armed forces help to deter aggression and coercion, promote regional stability, prevent and reduce conflicts and threats, and serve as role models for militaries in emerging democracies. . . .
- Topic:
- Security, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia
55536. Reevaluating the "Catalytic" Effect of IMF Programs
- Author:
- Martin S. Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Security and Democracy
- Abstract:
- While it is generally thought that Fund programs serve as a 'good housekeeping seal of approval' the empirical evidence suggests that Fund programs do not attract added inflows of so-called 'catalytic' finance. The existing work on this subject, however, suffers from two important limitations. These works assume that all programs are successfully completed, and they fail to address the effects of self-selection into IMF programs. Given these shortcomings, it is not surprising that the findings on catalytic finance have heretofore been unimpressive.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Trade and Finance
55537. The Internet in Turkey and Pakistan: A Comparative Analysis
- Author:
- Peter Wolcott and Seymour Goodman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The Global Diffusion of the Internet Project was initiated in 1997 to study the diffusion and absorption of the Internet to, and within, many diverse countries. This research has resulted in an ongoing series of reports and articles that have developed an analytic framework for evaluating the Internet within countries and applied it to more than 25 countries.
- Topic:
- Economics and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, South Asia, and Middle East
55538. The Diffusion of the Internet in China
- Author:
- William Foster and Seymour E. Goodman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- China and the United States share a new and rapidly expanding border—the Internet. It is a border that neither country fully understands. The possibility for misunderstanding is great because the Internet is not only transforming the relationship between the two countries, it is also transforming the countries themselves. It could be argued that China is going through the greater change. Unlike the past where information was mediated by the State, the mass media, and the work unit, Chinese citizens with Internet connections and a command of English have unprecedented direct and immediate access to information and people around the world. Because of abundance of Chinese language content, Chinese who can only read Chinese still have access to a wealth of information. The Chinese government has imposed its own unique regime on the networks in China that connect to the Internet. Though the United States and China both participate in the Internet, the regimes that they use to govern their networks are very different.
- Topic:
- Government and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
55539. A Proposal for an International Convention on Cyber Crime and Terrorism
- Author:
- Seymour E. Goodman and Abraham D. Sofaer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The information infrastructure is increasingly under attack by cyber criminals. The number, cost, and sophistication of attacks are increasing at alarming rates. Worldwide aggregate annual damage from attacks is now measured in billions of U.S. dollars. Attacks threaten the substantial and growing reliance of commerce, governments, and the public upon the information infrastructure to conduct business, carry messages, and process information. Most significant attacks are transnational by design, with victims throughout the world.
- Topic:
- Security, International Law, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
55540. Civil Liberties in Cyberspace
- Author:
- Ekaterina A. Drozdova
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- Societies are becoming more dependent on computer networks and therefore more vulnerable to cyber crime and terrorism. Measures to protect information systems are receiving increasing attention as the threat of attack grows and the nature of that threat is better understood. The primary purpose of this article is to determine what legal standards should govern the use of such measures and what nontechnical constraints are likely to be placed, or should be placed, on them. The article demonstrates that policing of computer networks poses a real threat to privacy, protection against self-incrimination and unwarranted searches and seizures, and the right to due process of law. Technological realities and the differences in national values and rules concerning the intrusiveness of law enforcement, protection of citizens' rights, and international cooperation can complicate the observance of these rights and allow misuse of systems set up for preventing, tracking, or punishing cyber crime. Another purpose of this article is to show that while technologies of crime and punishment are undergoing a rapid and profound evolution, the legal and normative principles discussed here will endure, because they are independent of specific technology. As such, they can provide a framework for building a global infrastructure and policy environment that can balance the needs for crime–free business, government, and personal communications, with the protection of property, privacy, and civil liberties. The article concludes that ensuring civil liberties in the course of legal and technological cooperation against cyber attacks is essential.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, International Law, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
55541. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Next Steps
- Author:
- Thomas Jr. Graham and Christopher Chyba
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- Dr. Sid Drell: With the end of the Cold War there's been a major change in the U.S. nuclear weapons program, because the continuous cycle of developing and testing and deploying new warheads has ended. President George Bush announced in 1992 that we have no need for new nuclear weapons designs for deployment. It was this decision that, of course, opened the possibility of a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which is why we now have a Stockpile Stewardship Program with the three requirements: we must maintain an enduring stockpile that's reliable, effective and safe for the indefinite future without nuclear explosive testing; we must maintain competence in nuclear weapons; and we must retain a technical capability and a manufacturing infrastructure in order to respond if required to any change in strategic circumstances. This will be one of the factors in our net assessment of whether to enter a CTBT.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, International Law, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States
55542. How Much Is Enough? A Risk-Management Approach to Computer Security
- Author:
- Kevin J. Soo Hoo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- How much security is enough? No one today can satisfactorily answer this question for computer—related risks. The first generation of computer security risk modelers struggled with issues arising out of their binary view of security, ensnaring them in an endless web of assessment, disagreement, and gridlock. Even as professional risk managers wrest responsibility away from the first—generation technologists, they are still unable to answer the question with sufficient quantitative rigor. Their efforts are handicapped by a reliance on non—quantitative methodologies originally developed to address the deployment and organizational acceptance issues that plagued first—generation tools.
- Topic:
- Security and Science and Technology
55543. Impact On Global Warming Of Development And Structural Changes In The Electricity Sector Of Guangdong Province, China
- Author:
- Michael M. May, Chi Zhang, and Thomas C. Heller
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the impact on global warming of development and structural changes in the electricity sector of Guangdong Province, China, together with the possible effect of international instruments such as are generated by the Kyoto Protocol on that impact. The purpose of the paper is three–fold: to examine and analyze the data available, to put that data into an explanatory economic and institutional framework, and to analyze the possible application of international instruments such as CDMs in that locality. Our plans are to supplement this work with similar work elsewhere in China.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
55544. The U.S. Enlargement Strategy and Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- Michael M. May
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The United States is often accused of lacking a global security strategy. The United States, so the accusation goes, makes foreign policy and security decisions on an ad-hoc basis, prompted by the demands of politics and pressure groups, and in alternating bursts of idealism and realpolitik. Since none of these factors can safely be dismissed, there has to be something to the accusation. In an unpredictable world, a certain respect for the ad hoc may even be a good thing: a global strategy, carried out without regard to circumstances, would confine the United States to a conceptual straitjacket, depriving it of needed flexibility.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States
55545. A Verification Regime for Warhead Control
- Author:
- Liu Suping
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- After a brief period of progress, the U.S.-Russian nuclear reduction process has reached a stalemate. This situation causes us to rethink the following issues: What is the motivation for the two nuclear superpowers to conduct nuclear reductions? How can the focus of the nuclear arms reduction process be changed from verification of reduction of delivery vehicles to verification of reduction of warheads and nuclear materials? What is the objective for future nuclear reductions? What kind of verification regime will be required for future nuclear reductions?
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
55546. An Alternative Framework for the Control of Nuclear Materials
- Author:
- Robert L Rinne
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The decade of the 1990s has seen renewed concerns over nuclear proliferation, both horizontal and vertical. While many in the arms control community focus on numbers, it is control that is the most important factor—the detonation of just one nuclear weapon would be an international catastrophe. Rather than concentrating on numbers, the regime defined herein centers on enhancing the safety and security being provided nuclear weapons and weapons-usable fissile materials. The proposal in the paper is called the Nuclear Weapons Control Treaty (NWCT) and referred to as New Court. The emphasis is on control rather than disarmament, protection from unintended or unauthorized use rather than elimination. New Court, once in place, would provide an environment in which the necessary audits and accountability for undertaking dramatic reductions in the numbers of weapons and the quantities of weapons-usable materials could be made with much greater confidence than exists today. However, it will be decades (if ever) before the number of nuclear weapons goes to zero. In the meantime, it is paramount that comprehensive safety and security be established and maintained.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
55547. Women's Rights are Human Rites: Women's human rights activists as cross-cultural theorists
- Author:
- Brooke A. Ackerly
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- The familiar human rights paradigm, manifested in the Universal Declaration on Human Rights and subsequent related international documents, is problematic. It cannot deal with 1) rights violations associated with a country's cultural norms that define what it means to be “human” and 2) rights violations that do not take the paradigmatic form of discrimination. Further, the framework for human rights set out by the Universal Declaration on Human Rights is insufficient for 3) adjudicating between seemingly competing liberal rights or between liberal and other rights, 4) attributing responsibility for human rights violations by state and non-state actors, attributing responsibility for structural causes of human rights violations, or imputing political import to private actions, and 5) reconciling the concept of universal human rights with cultural norms that violate certain universal human rights. These five problems are interrelated. Cross- cultural human rights theorizing is promising, but in its current articulations, it tends to focus on the last of these five problems. Moreover, it relies either on models of discourse that are exclusionary or on models of culture articulated by elites. Drawing on the theory implicit in their actions, I argue that women's human rights activists give us a way of theorizing that addresses the problems with the existing paradigm without being exclusive or elitist.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Gender Issues, and Human Rights
55548. 'So how do you do culture?': A workshop to discuss methodological approaches to studying culture in International Relations
- Author:
- Patricia M. Goff and Jacinta O'Hagan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- Increasingly, scholars of International Relations are acknowledging that attention to the various dimensions of culture can expand our understanding of world politics. This workshop was premised on the assumption that culture is a significant factor in international relations. Its objective was not to ask whether culture matters in IR; it assumes that it does. Instead, it asked “how do we study the influence of culture? What methodological approaches are available to us?” Part of the difficulty in addressing these questions lies in the epistemological and methodological divide that animates many IR debates. While discussions inevitably touched on these issues, the emphasis was on productive discussions of method. Rather than reprising debates over the relative merits of quantitative versus qualitative methods, or rationalist versus social construction approaches, the workshop sought to draw on all of these traditions, in an effort to assemble a problem-driven methodological toolkit that could make confident assertions and arguments about an increasingly important area of inquiry.
- Topic:
- International Relations
55549. Syria and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East is the scene of an ongoing process of proliferation. Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Libya, and Syria all have significant capabilities to deliver weapons of mass destruction Israel, and Syria has made considerable progress in acquiring weapons of mass destruction since the mid-1970s. Syria has never shown a serious interest in nuclear weapons, although it did seek to buy two small research reactors from the PRC in 1992, including a 24-megawatt reactor, and purchased a small 30-kilowatt research reactor from the PRC in 1991. It allowed inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency for the first time in February 1992. Syria does, however, deploy sheltered missiles, armed with chemical warheads, as a means of both countering Israel's nuclear forces and maintaining its rivalry with Iraq. As the attached article Syrian Defense Minister Gen. Mustafa Tlas shows, Syria has a major interest in biological warfare, and the fact his article first appeared in public in an Iranian journal may not entirely be a coincidence.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Syria, and Egypt
55550. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- There is a wide spectrum of potential threats to the American homeland that do not involve the threat of overt attacks by states using long-range missiles or conventional military forces. Such threats include covert attacks by state actors, state use of proxies, independent terrorist and extremist attacks by foreign groups or individuals, and independent terrorist and extremist attacks by residents of the US. These threats are currently limited in scope and frequency. No pattern of actual attacks on US territory has yet emerged that provides a clear basis for predicting how serious any given form of attack will be in the future, what means of attack will be used, or how lethal new forms of attack will be if they are successful.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States and America