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9552. Policy Strategies to Strengthen the Travel and Tourism Sectors from the COVID-19 Pandemic Shocks: A Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Indonesian Economy
- Author:
- Irlan Adiyatma Rum
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The travel and tourism sectors have become the most vulnerable sectors to the COVID-19 pandemic. Studies have shown that most tourist-destination countries will experience economic shocks due to the pandemic. This study analyses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic shock and the implications of policies taken by the government to strengthen the travel and tourism sectors. As the largest travel and tourism economy in ASEAN, this study uses Indonesia as a case study. It uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using a detailed national input–output table for the creative sectors. The study develops baseline scenarios (low and lower-middle recovery), general policy scenarios (moderate and highly effective support) and specific policy scenarios for the travel and tourism sectors. Through changes in export demand, the impact of the pandemic depends on the existing conditions and policy interventions. The pandemic causes the nominal gross domestic product at the national level to decline by an interval of [–1.99%, –2.97%] and for tourism and travel sectors by [–6.81%, –10.38%] depending on the recovery period. If the recovery is low (all annual inbound tourism expenditure is removed), the Indonesian macroeconomy will be worse than under the lower-middle recovery, given the same government intervention. Thus, effectiveness becomes an important factor for creating a better impact. Adding capital stimulus into the tourism sector helps to further reduce output decline in the travel and tourism sectors, but it is not enough to help the economy recover from the pandemic. The best policy strategy is to make sure that the mitigation plan will be implemented effectively.
- Topic:
- Tourism, Economy, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
9553. Robustness and Resilience of Supply Chains During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings from a Questionnaire Survey on the Supply Chain Links of Firms in ASEAN and India
- Author:
- Yasuyuki Todo, Keita Oikawa, Masahito Ambashi, Fukunari Kimura, and Shujiro Urata
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- Using a unique firm-level data set from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and India collected from November 2020 to February 2021, this paper examines how the robustness and resilience of supply chain links – i.e. maintaining links and substituting another for a disrupted partner, respectively – were determined when firms faced economic shocks due to the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Focusing on the role of the characteristics of firms’ supply chains, we find that homophily, i.e. the tendency to form a group with similar agents, was often associated with the robustness of supply chain links, most likely because of the strength of homophilous ties. In particular, when a foreign-owned firm had a supply chain link with a firm located in the same country as its home country, the link was quite robust. We also find that the geographic diversity of customers and suppliers creates resilience of supply chains. When the demand or supply from a partner of a firm was disrupted because of COVID-19, the firm likely mitigated the damage from the disruption through substitution of partners if its supply chains were well diversified across countries. In addition, larger or younger firms tended to be resilient and robust. The robustness and resilience of supply chains are found to have led to higher performance.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- India, Asia, and Southeast Asia
9554. Education for All? Assessing the Impact of Socio-economic Disparity on Learning Engagement During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Indonesia
- Author:
- Samuel Nursamsu, Winsu Harto Adiwijoyo, and Anissa Rahmawati
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper attempts to shed light on the impact of socio-economic disparity on learning engagement during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. Utilising search intensity data from Google Trends, school data from Dapodik (Education Core Database), and socio-economic data from the National Socioeconomic Survey, we conduct descriptive analysis, an event study, and difference-in-difference estimations. First, school quality differs in terms of the regions’ development level, especially between western and eastern Indonesia. However, densely populated and well-developed areas generally have lower offline classroom availability. In addition, the quality of public schools is generally lower than private schools. Second, our estimation results show that only online-classroom related search intensity that increased significantly after school closures on 16 March 2020, not in self-learning related search intensity. Further the analysis shows that socio-economic disparity within provinces widens the gap in online learning engagement, albeit with weak evidence from per capita expenditure. Interestingly, provinces with a higher inequality and rural population tend to have higher self-learning related search intensity due to students’ necessity to compensate for low learning quality from schools. In addition, technology adoption does not seem to give much of an increase to online-classroom related search intensity but contributes to lower self-learning related search intensity due to increased academic distraction. Our study provides evidence for the Indonesian government to make more precise policy in improving learning quality during the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Education, Children, Inequality, Pandemic, COVID-19, Socioeconomics, and Public Schools
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
9555. Spillover Effects of Social and Economic Interactions on COVID-19 Pandemic Vulnerability Across Indonesia’s Regions
- Author:
- Ernawati Pasaribu, Puguh B. Irawan, Tiodora H. Siagian, Ika Yuni Wulansari, and Robert Kurniawan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This research study focuses on measuring the possible spillover effects of socio-economic interactions on COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability across Indonesia’s regions by utilising a spatial simultaneous model. The COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability level here is used to indicate the extent to which a region is susceptible to the spreading COVID-19 pandemic, as determined by not only the region’s COVID-19 related epidemiological factors but also by its relevant socio-demographic and economic aspects, housing, environmental health, and availability of health facilities. High COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability levels were mostly found in districts in Java Island and southern Sumatera, suggesting high population density and mobility in both regions. It was revealed that 31 districts have low COVID-19 risk levels (from epidemiological indicators-related measurements), but they have high COVID-19 vulnerability levels (from epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators-based measurements). Labour productivity was found to have a reciprocal relationship with COVID-19 vulnerability, proving that the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on labour productivity and vice versa. On the other hand, regional independence affects COVID-19 vulnerability, but this does not apply the other way around. Moreover, this study has also proven that COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability levels have socio-economic spillover effects on neighbouring areas in Indonesia.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, Pandemic, COVID-19, Socioeconomics, and Economic Integration
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
9556. The Human Rights Situation in the Nagorno-karabakh Conflict: A Synopsis from the Un Protection Mechanisms/La situación de los derechos humanos en el conflicto de Nagorno-Karabaj. Una visión desde los mecanismos de protección de Naciones Unidas
- Author:
- Dorothy Estrada Tanck
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh has deep historical roots and has been exacerbated by the armed conflict of 2020. In this context, the human rights situation of those affected, and especially of women and girls, is often left invisible. Thus, this article analyses the conflict by referring to the general position of the UN and public international law and by widening the lens, in particular, on international human rights law and the UN mechanisms articulated for the protection of those rights. A distinct focus on the human rights of women and girls is presented, giving an account of the empirical situations they face, to then study them through the lens of human rights with a gender perspective, emphasizing what the main international protection mechanisms dedicated to the issue have expressed in this regard./El conflicto entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán sobre el Nagorno-Karabaj presenta hondas raíces históricas y se ha visto exacerbado por el conflicto armado de 2020. En este contexto, a menudo la situación de los derechos humanos de las personas afectadas y, en particular, los de las mujeres y niñas, queda invisibilizada. Así, este artículo analiza el conflicto refiriendo la postura general de la ONU y el Derecho Internacional Público y ampliando el lente, en especial, sobre el Derecho internacional de los derechos humanos y los mecanismos de Naciones Unidas articulados para su protección. Se presenta un enfoque específico sobre los derechos humanos de las mujeres y niñas, dando cuenta de las situaciones empíricas que enfrentan, para estudiarlas después bajo la mirada de los derechos humanos con una perspectiva de género, poniendo énfasis en lo que al respecto han manifestado los principales mecanismos de protección internacional dedicados al tema.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, United Nations, Women, Conflict, and Girls
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
9557. The European Union and the Nagorno-Karabaj conflict/La Unión Europea y el Conflicto de Nagorno-Karabaj
- Author:
- Juan Jorge Piernas López
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this article is to analyse the European Union's policies and activities in relation to the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. To this end, the article first describes the broad outline of the conflict. Secondly, the article analyzes the role of the European Union in the conflict and the policies and measures it proposes for its resolution within the framework of the Neighborhood Policy and the Eastern Partnership the Union maintains with the two States involved in the conflict, Finally, the article concludes with a series of considerations highlighting the role that the EU can play in the future in relation to this conflict./El presente artículo tiene por objeto analizar la actuación de la Unión Europea en relación con el conflicto entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán sobre Nagorno-Karabaj. Con este fin, el trabajo describe, en primer lugar, la evolución a grandes rasgos del conflicto. En segundo lugar, el artículo analiza el papel de la Unión Europea en el conflicto y las medidas que propone para contribuir a su resolución en el marco de la relación que la Unión mantiene con los dos Estados implicados en el mismo, con los que colabora a través de la Política de Vecindad y la Asociación Oriental. Finalmente, el trabajo presenta una serie de consideraciones a modo de conclusión en las que se destaca el papel que la Unión Europea puede desempeñar en el futuro en relación con este conflicto.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
9558. From the Barcelona Process to the New Agenda for the Mediterranean: In Search of an Appropriate Model of Cooperation/Del Proceso de Barcelona a la nueva agenda para el Mediterráneo: En busca de un modelo apropiado de cooperación
- Author:
- Antonio Blanc and Eimys Ortíz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- This article analyses the Euro-Mediterranean relations in its twenty-fifth anniversary since the launch of the Barcelona Process in 1995 until its last review, the New Mediterranean Agenda. The EuroMediterranean policy is characterised by the search for an appropriate cooperation model and due to that fact, it has gone through different stages without achieving tangible results. The successive initiatives, the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Union for the Mediterranean, are mainly based on internal events that required updating their relationship with the region, including parameters that were difficult to reach as well. After examining the different policies, the article tries to explain whether the New Agendal will continue to make a contribution to its decline or can reactivate the common vision for a stable, secure and prosperous Mediterranean./El presente artículo analiza las relaciones euro-mediterráneas en los veinticinco años transcurridos desde el lanzamiento del Proceso de Barcelona en 1995 hasta su última revisión, la Nueva Agenda Mediterránea. La política euro-mediterránea se caracteriza por la búsqueda de un modelo apropiado de cooperación que ha pasado por distintas etapas desde la Conferencia de Barcelona sin lograr resultados tangibles. Las sucesivas iniciativas, la Política Europea de Vecindad y la Unión por el Mediterráneo, parten principalmente de acontecimientos internos que exigen actualizar su relación con la región, así como de parámetros de difícil alcance. Tras examinar las distintas políticas, el trabajo aborda si la Nueva Agenda continuará incurriendo en el declive o puede reactivar la visión común de un Mediterráneo estable, seguro y próspero.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Mediterranean
9559. Great Expectations and a Missed Opportunity. The Special Tribunal For Lebanon and the Objectives of the United Nations Security Council. A Critical Perspective/Grandes expectativas y una oportunidad perdida. El tribunal especial para el Líbano y los objetivos del Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas. Una mirada crítica
- Author:
- María Torres Pérez
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- Among the various ad hoc international criminal tribunals that have been established since the end of the twentieth century, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon stands out for its singularity, both at the jurisdictional level and for its contribution to the treatment of victims. The work of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon began in 2009, delivering its first sentence on 18 August 2020. Through its constitution, the United Nations Security Council sought not to abandon the path initiated in 1993 with the creation of the Yugoslavia and Rwanda tribunals; however, the result has not been as expected. This article aims to analyze the peculiarities of the Tribunal and its work, making a critical analysis of it, considering it as a lost opportunity for the reconstruction process in Lebanon./Entre los diversos tribunales penales internacionales ad hoc que se han creado desde finales del siglo XX, el Tribunal Especial para el Líbano destaca por su particularidad, tanto a nivel jurisdiccional como por su contribución al tratamiento de las víctimas. La labor del Tribunal Especial para el Líbano comenzó en 2009, dictando su primera sentencia de instancia el 18 de agosto de 2020. Mediante su constitución, el Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas apostó por no abandonar el camino iniciado en 1993 con la creación de los tribunales de Yugoslavia y Ruanda; sin embargo, el resultado no ha sido el esperado. Este trabajo pretende analizar las peculiaridades del Tribunal y su trabajo, realizando un análisis crítico del mismo como oportunidad perdida para el proceso de reconstrucción del Líbano.
- Topic:
- International Law, United Nations, History, Impunity, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Yugoslavia, Lebanon, and Rwanda
9560. Saudi Arabia: A Colossus with Clay Feets/Arabia Saudí: Un coloso con los pies de barro
- Author:
- Eugenia López-Jacoiste Díaz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- The political-religious foundation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is Wahhabism that marks its identity, society and politics. The Al Saud dynasty defends and expands Sunni Islam in the region and beyond its borders. In order to understand the interests and objectives of Saudi foreign policy, this article analyzes the main geopolitical elements at the service of the stability and hegemony of the Al Saud house in the most turbulent region of the Middle East. The Saudi government is developing a foreign policy, unsuspected in the past, to maintain its historic alliance with Washington, despite the ups and downs, and to transform the old rivalries between Riyadh and Tehran into new opportunities, including with Israel. This change in Saudi foreign policy is due to the controversial Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman who knows how to take advantage of the changing regional geopolitics and Saudi financial instruments, but also the military and technological in favor of a more proactive and modern Saudi Arabia, despite his weaknesses./El fundamento político-religioso del Reino de Arabia Saudí es el wahabismo que marca su identidad, su sociedad y su política. La dinastía Al Saud defiende y expande el islam sunní en la región y fuera de sus fronteras. Para poder entender los intereses y objetivos de la política exterior saudí, este artículo analiza los principales elementos geopolíticos al servicio de la estabilidad y hegemonía de la casa Al Saud en la región más convulsa de Oriente Medio. El Gobierno saudí está desarrollando una política exterior, insospechada en el pasado para mantener su histórica alianza con Washington, a pesar de los altibajos, y transformar las viejas rivalidades entre Riad y Teherán en nuevas oportunidades, incluso con Israel. Este cambio en la política exterior saudí se debe al controvertido Príncipe Heredero Mohamed bin Salmán que sabe aprovechar la cambiante geopolítica regional y los instrumentos financieros saudíes, pero también los militares y tecnológicos a favor de una Arabia Saudí más proactiva y moderna, a pesar de sus debilidades.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Oil, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, and Wahhabism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Persian Gulf, and United States of America