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CIAO DATE: 4/5/2007
Turkey's foreign policy in turbulent times
Kemal Kiriþci
September 2006
Abstract
A decade ago Turkey was in conflict with most of its neighbours, its relations with the European Union (EU) were tense and the Turkish economy was in the throes of a major recession. Turkey was surrounded by serious ethnically-driven conflicts in the Balkans and the Caucasus, while Turkey itself was experiencing a violent internal ethnic dispute involving its own Kurds. Iraq constituted a challenge but there were glimmers of hope with regard to a ‘new’ Middle East emerging from the Madrid peace process and the Oslo Accords. Today, Turkey has accomplished major economic and political reforms that have brought it to the gates of EU membership. However, Turkey still finds itself in the midst of a troublesome region in turbulent times. The Balkans is somewhat stabilised and the violent conflicts there have receded. However, the ex-Soviet space is still unstable. Ukraine’s ‘Orange’ and Georgia’s ‘Rose’ revolutions have not been consolidated. Ethnic conflicts remain unresolved in the Caucasus. The Middle East, on the other hand, has simply plunged into an abyss with the impossible situations prevailing in both Palestine and Iraq. The terrorist attacks of 9/11 led to a new macabre era in a region living with the constant threat of terrorism and violence. More recently, Iran’s nuclear ambitions have simply aggravated the situation, while Samuel Huntington’s once highly contested theory of the ‘clash of civilisations’ seems more and more plausible.
Against this background, Turkey is caught between two sets of challenges. The first set includes the typical conventional challenges that relate to national security, territorial integrity and political stability. The second set of challenges has to do with maintaining the pace of political reform, gaining access to markets, ensuring economic stability and growth in the region, as well as securing energy supplies. Above all, but closely related to these challenges, is of course the ultimate challenge for Turkey: EU membership. Many Turks and many in the region recognise how crucial the EU’s engagement of Turkey has been in propelling Turkey from the appalling state it was in the mid-1990s to where it finds itself today. Yet Turkey continues to face an array of formidable problems. The Kurdish issue, in spite of all the reforms that have been undertaken, has made a comeback with a vengeance. Terrorism perpetrated by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is on the rise. Major public demonstrations of displeasure with the current situation in Kurdish-populated areas have occurred. The chaos in Iraq is still raging, with the future of a united Iraq in serious question. This has severely strained US-Turkish relations and the future of relations with the US is overshadowed with uncertainty. The challenge of reconciling Islam with democracy is still an ongoing process in Turkey that has not been concluded. The Cyprus problem remains unresolved, with the implications that this has not only in terms of domestic politics but also in terms of EU-Turkish relations. Improving relations with Armenia and addressing the Armenian genocide issue will continue to constitute a major challenge. Last but not least is the impact of the crisis provoked by Iran’s nuclear ambitions on Turkey’s national security, its relations with the US and the region as a whole.
