|
|
|
|
|
|
CIAO DATE: 04/04
Labour Markets and Employment Development in South East Europe
Hermine Vidovic
January 2004
Abstract
In contrast to the Central European transition countries, the economies of South East Europe (SEE) have been facing complex and interrelated political and economic problems. The dissolution of Yugoslavia combined with market losses , war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, sanctions finally culminating in the Kosovo conflict were the main causes of political and economic instability in the whole region. Taking into account these factors, output recovery has been much slower in SEE than in the Central European countries. Measured in purchasing power standards , Croatia is the best per former in the region, with its GDP at about 38% of the EU average. Next comes Bulgar ia (32%), whereas the res pective values f or Serbia and M ontenegro and Albania range between 15-17%. Looking at the economic performance in the 1990- 2002 period, Croatia and Romania reached almost 94% of their pre-transitional level in 2002, followed by Bulgaria and Macedonia (about 88% each). Serbia and Montenegro, the worst-affected, reached only about half of what it was in 1990. The cumulative output decline there was one of the largest among all the Centr al and East European countries .
Despite the resumption of economic growth in most of the countries there was no essential improvement on the labour markets in the South East European countries over the past years. In 2002, only Bulgaria and Croatia showed a slight employment increase. In Bulgaria the turnaround was mainly due to a recovery of some manufacturing branches contributing to net job creation as well as active labour market policy measures and the launching of public works programmes ( ECE 2003). New jobs in Croatia were mainly provided in the services and construction sectors, the latter due to motorway construction.