CIAO DATE: 02/02

Allied Views on Widening the War on Terrorism

U.S. plans to expand the military campaign against terrorism to Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Sudan and elsewhere are drawing a cautious, but largely supportive, response from America's allies in Europe. NATO allies generally endorse continuing the pursuit of al Qaeda and other terrorist networks beyond Afghanistan, but the desire to take part in military operations varies depending on which country is to be targeted for U.S. action.

Three general patterns emerge in the European deliberations on the expansion of military operations outside Afghanistan. Support remains strong if the countries/groups targeted by planned attacks have direct links to the al Qaeda network and Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. European countries are also generally supportive of moves against other known terrorist groups, even if not connected to Osama bin Laden. But where the United States is perceived to have motivations other than the fight against terrorism — especially in the case of Iraq — support among NATO allies for military operations drops markedly.

The United States has successfully impressed on its allies that military operations must continue wherever terrorist networks exist. Although fighting in Afghanistan has subsided toward the end of December, European countries continue gearing up for further military action. NATO's defense ministers, meeting in Brussels on Dec. 18, agreed to conduct a reassessment of the alliance's defense posture and plans, with an eye on strengthening military skills required for fight against terrorism.  ₁   A recent report by the French legislative body, the National Assembly, concluded that "the fight against terrorism does not end at the ruins of Kabul," and calls for a mobilization of military, police, and political resources to continue the effort.  ₂    Similarly, the British Parliament's Select Committee on Defence issued a report on Dec. 18, which endorses continuation of military and other operations against terrorism. "Whatever the outcome of the present action in Afghanistan or the fate of Osama Bin Laden and al Qaeda," the committee wrote, "we cannot expect to neutralize the new threats easily or quickly."   ₃    To continue the pursuit of terrorists and their sponsors, the report recommends a "fundamental reappraisal" of the country's defense plans and forces.   ₄   

Most European governments are mum on their potential participation in specific operations outside Afghanistan. Nevertheless, British media report that U.K. Special Forces are coordinating a possible joint operation in Yemen with the Pentagon. Both the United States and the United Kingdom are said to have provided surveillance and intelligence help for the Dec. 18 crackdown by Yemeni government forces on suspected al Qaeda camps in the country.   ₅    The German media reports that a military delegation from Berlin visited Djibouti in December to talk about stationing naval forces in this country, just north of Somalia.   ₆    German newspapers also wrote that Bundeswehr units would likely take part in a U.S. operation in Somalia;   ₇    a claim that government officials in Berlin are vehemently denying. The German government knows nothing about any plans for a Somalia operation, said the Foreign Ministry spokesman on Dec. 12.   ₈   

A few general concerns limit European abilities to contribute to operations outside Afghanistan. Foremost among them is the question of military capabilities. U.S. military forces dwarf the combined forces of all other NATO allies, which already have been struggling to make a meaningful contribution to the Afghanistan operation. The dilemma before Europe was eloquently laid out in a recent controversial speech by Adm. Sir Michael Boyce, the chief of the British Defense Staff. Emphasizing that counter-terrorist operations must also include reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan and elsewhere in order to win "the hearts and minds" of the Muslim nations, Boyce warned that Britain may not be able to engage in both peacekeeping/reconstruction efforts and continued U.S. military operations. "We cannot be 'all seeing' all the time — we simply do not have the resources," he said Dec. 11.   ₉    "We have to decide soon whether we make a commitment to a broader campaignÖ or to make a longer-term commitment to Afghanistan," Boyce added.   ₁₀    On Dec. 19, the London government formally offered to lead the planned UN peacekeeping force in Afghanistan, known as the International Security Assistance Force.   ₁₁    It is unclear what impact this U.K. commitment will have on the country's participation in military operations outside Afghanistan.

"No" to Iraq

One exception to the generally supportive attitude in Europe to a larger counter-terrorist operation is Iraq. In fact, all major U.S. allies have warned, privately or publicly, against attacking the regime of Saddam Hussein. The skeptics' ranks include Britain, whose aircraft, together with the U.S. Air Force, have been regularly bombing Iraq since the end of the Gulf War for violations of the UN-imposed no-fly zones.

European countries tend to view the possible operation against Iraq as a effort by Washington to complete 'unfinished business' from the 1991 Gulf War. This view is reinforced by the presence of George W. Bush, the son of America's wartime president, in the White House — and the fact that many of Bush Jr.'s advisers are those who helped his father run the Gulf War. Stressing that no proof exists of Saddam Hussein's involvement in the Sept. 11 attacks, French newspaper Le Monde called Iraq "the grand temptation," adding that some in the U.S. administration desire to attack Iraq to "settle scores, this time definitively, with Saddam Hussein."   ₁₂    The French National Assembly's December 2001 report warned that "the United States would gravely compromise the stability of the coalition if they turned this legitimate and necessary war on terrorism into a campaign against states Ö they consider 'rogue'."   ₁₃   

Not everyone shares this bleak view of U.S. government's intentions. British government insiders attribute Prime Minister Tony Blair's hesitation over Iraq to a desire to avoid further enflaming the Arab public opinion. "The prime minister remains convinced that peace in the Middle East is crucial to checking the form of Islamic extremism that feed upon the plight of the Palestinians; he calculates that another Gulf war would incite a wave of militancy among Arab states," the Daily Telegraph wrote, quoting an unnamed Blair adviser.   ₁₄   

Whatever the reasons, the European governments have drawn a clear line on Iraq. "All European nations would view a broadening (of the conflict) to include Iraq highly skeptically — and that is putting it diplomatically," Joschka Fischer, Germany's foreign minister, said in late November.   ₁₅    But Europe also remains realistic about its impact on U.S. policy. "[The Americans] are prepared to press ahead whatever the Europeans think," wrote a columnist for the British daily, The Independent.   ₁₆   

 
End Notes

Note 1:   Statement On Combating Terrorism: Adapting The Alliance's Defence Capabilities, issued at the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in defense ministers session, Brussels, Belgium, Dec. 18, 2001. Back.

Note 2:   Paris veut muscler son arsenal antiterrorist, Le Monde, Dec. 13, 2001. Back.

Note 3:   Select Committee on Defence Second Report, Dec. 18, 2001, www.parliament.uk Back.

Note 4:   Ibid. Back.

Note 5:   Yemen attacks al-Qaida, The Guardian (UK), Dec. 19, 2001. Back.

Note 6:   Im zerr¸tteten Somalia droht den deutschen Soldaten eine gef”rhliche Mission, Die Welt, Dec. 12, 2001. Back.

Note 7:   USA nehmen Somalia ins Visier, Frankfurter Rundschau, Dec. 19, 2001. Back.

Note 8:   Ausw”rtiges Amt bezweifelt baldigen Einsatz in Somalia, Die Welt, Dec. 12, 2001. Back.

Note 9:   UK Strategic Choices Following SDR & the 11th of September, Speech to the Royal United Services Institute, Dec. 11, 2001, www.rusi.org Back.

Note 10:   The task force was headed by former Senate majority leader Howard Baker, R-Tenn., and former Clinton White House counsel Lloyd Cutler. Back.

Note 11:   Speech by Secretary of State for Defense, Geoff Hoon, to the House of Commons, Dec. 19, 2001, www.mod.uk Back.

Note 12:   DerriËre l'Afghanistan, la tentation de l'Irak, Le Monde, Dec. 13, 2001. Back.

Note 13:   Paris veut muscler son arsenal antiterrorist, Le Monde, Dec. 13, 2001. Back.

Note 14:   Blair's shiver of fear as Bush sets his sights on Iraq, The Telegraph (UK), Dec. 12, 2001. Back.

Note 15:   Back to Iraq: Washington is turning its attention to Baghdad, Financial Times, Dec. 1, 2001. Back.

Note 16:   Bruce Anderson: So who has the stomach for the next stage of the fight? The Independent, Dec. 17, 2001. Back.