CIAO DATE: 04/02

Indonesia in Transition

Overview

The Schlesinger Working Group on Strategic Surprises held its first two sessions in the fall of 1999, convening practitioners and area experts to discuss Indonesia immediately before and after that country's presidential selection. Participants debated the composition of the new government, the prospect of further regional separatism, and the future role of the military, and the political and social impact of the continuing financial crisis, among other issues. Many expected that the broad coalition-style government that emerged under the leadership of Abdurrahman Wahid would offer short-term stability at the expense of a decisive policy direction. The center would hold in the short term but be weakened. Participants were not asked to reach a formal consensus, but general agreement emerged on certain key judgments and a range of possible scenarios for Indonesia's future. The chances of the more negative scenarios emerging (see below) were significant in the view of many participants.

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