CIAO DATE: 08/04

Small Arms are Continuing Threat in Iraq

Rachel Stohl

Center for Defense Information

May 2003

As bombs fall on Iraq, the threat of a chemical, biological or nuclear attack remains a real threat to U.S. and coalition forces. But, with the hope that there is no attack using weapons of mass destruction, the majority of U.S. casualties in this war will be from small arms and light weapons. Moreover, the real threat to the rebuilding of Iraq may be these weapons as well.

According to media reports, Iraq is one of the most heavily armed countries in the world. It is believed that there are enough guns in Iraq for at last every person in Iraq to possess one, a level similar to gun ownership in clans in Yemen and Somalia, as well as in the United States. With a population of approximately 24 million, that means there could be millions of small arms in the hands of civilians. The gun culture is pervasive in Iraq. There is even an Iraqi saying, “Give everything to your friend, except your car, your wife, and your gun.”

Small arms and light weapons are widely available in Iraq, both on the legal and black markets. These weapons are not necessarily new, but they are still deadly. In some arms bazaars throughout Iraq, weapons leftover from the end of Ottoman Empire in 1918 and World War II are also still available. More modern weapons are also available, especially in the illicit arms markets, with weapons for sale from the United States, Turkey Iran, and other supporters of the Kurds. Beyond simply guns, Iraqis civilians also have access to other light weapons, such as rocket–propelled grenades, mortars, and bombs through the black market, arms bazaars, and from government sources.

The majority of military–style weapons in the hands of civilians in Iraq come from three sources, according to media reports. First, civilians possess weapons from government arsenals that were looted in 1991. Second, weapons have been provided from Iran, which has provided support for the main Shia rebel group. Third, the Iraqi government has provided AK–47s to leaders of Sunni and Shi’ite tribal leaders for dispersal.

Moreover, it is widely believed that Saddam’s government has trained civilians, including units of children, in small arms usage and combat techniques and tactics. These trainees were given firearms, including military assault rifles to keep in their home in the event of an attack. Indeed, in February, 2003, Saddam’s governments held a parade of thousands of small arms–bearing civilians to march down the streets of Mosul to demonstrate the capacity of ordinary Iraqis to wage war. This is not a new tactic. During the Iran–Iraq war, the Iraqi government provided AK–47s to decommission soldiers Ba’ath party members, and tribal leaders.

In the months preceding the war with Iraq, small arms in Iraq fluctuated in price. A shotgun was selling for $100, Iraqi–made “Tariq” 7.65 mm pistols for $200; AK–47 assault rifles were selling for between $120 and $250, Israeli Uzis and German MP5 submachine guns for $400, a 9mm Beretta for $850. Each bullet was selling for approximately 25 cents. In the months prior to the start of the war, arms bazaar leaders had bemoaned the slow business of selling arms. There were so many arms in circulation, that when the Iraqi government gave away weapons, citizens were selling them to buy food. Indeed, some merchants were buying the weapons in Iraq and then smuggling them into the Kurdish areas to make a small profit. In the Kurdish areas, AK–47s were being sold as low as $70. RPGs were going for as little as $30 to$40. Hand grenades were selling between $3 and $10. Higher prices were for those weapons made in the West versus those from Russia, China, Iran or Egypt. However, in the days immediately before the U.S. invasion, the small arms trade exploded, as civilians became fearful of their safety, not necessarily from invading U.S. forces, but from Kurdish groups and their well–armed neighbors. In fact, AK–47s went from $20 in some areas to $500 in others.

It is not just civilians that possess weapons in Iraq, however. U.S. and coalition forces will have to deal with armed opposition groups as well. According to some media reports, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) are also well armed. However, unlike the government forces, these groups have tried to remove the large number of small arms from circulation. For example, in 1997, the KDP opened an arms market and determined that only KDP soldiers or those with KDP-issued permits could purchase weapons from the market. They even recorded the buyers name and the serial numbers of each purchase. Although these groups may be concerned with civilian ownership of these military–style weapons, they themselves, in some cases are well armed. The KDP, for example is believed to have small arms, Iranian light artillery, rocket launchers and some surface–to–air missiles. The PUK is believed to have T–54 and T–55 tanks, as well as mortars, anti–aircraft guns, and surface–to–air missiles.

While Saddam had hoped that the Iraqi people would use their small arms to fight off advancing U.S. troops, the likelihood is that they will not. But, what is likely is that these millions of military style weapons in the hands of civilians will have a real impact on the aftermath of this war. There is a distinct possibility that in the lawlessness that results from the fall of the Iraqi government, small arms could be used to gain power, commit crime, cause insecurity, and be used for internal fighting.

Certainly, strategies that address the rebuilding of Iraq will have to take small arms into account. Demobilization and demilitarization of ex–combatants, as well as the civilian population, must be an integral part of creating a new, democratic, and secure Iraq. As part of the rebuilding, norms of civilian possession of military–style small arms must be created as well. After the civil war in El Salvador, the incidence of gun violence and crime actually increased, and more civilians were killed in the aftermath of the civil war than during the years of fighting. It will be up to those responsible for the rebuilding of Iraq to ensure that small arms are not used to cause more, even deadlier, problems for the Iraqi people.