CIAO DATE: 6/00

The United States, Japan, and China: Setting the Course

Summary

The political dynamics of China-Japan relations have changed in reaction to three events: the demise of bipolar world politics, China's "rise," and Japan's unexpected economic stall. These changed political dynamics have brought important challenges and consequences for the United States.

Until the end of the Cold War, China valued the U.S.-Japan security alliance's role as a counter to Soviet influence in East Asia. It also appreciated the alliance's role in cappingJapanese military options and ambitions. Even after the endof the Cold War in the early 1990s, China was concerned that U.S.-Japan trade tensions and American troop pull-downs from Asia might impair the U.S.-Japan security alliance and open long-closed security debates and options within Japan.

Japan was also greatly concerned about America's alliance fidelity during President Bill Clinton's first administration because of the lack of a U.S. strategic focus and, especially, the emphasis on trade-deficit reduction. From 1995, the Japanese were gradually reassured with the Nye Initiative and the U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines review.

However, since the United States and Japan acted to strengthen their alliance, China has warned that Japan's expanded role could be the first step toward Japanese remilitarization, and it has expressed concerns about an increasingly independent Japan.

China has made clear that it now prefers a "hollowed out" U.S.-Japan security alliance to the stronger, more effective alliance envisioned in the 1997 U.S.-Japan Joint Defense Guide-lines. China has pressured Japan on the guidelines but has gone relatively easy on the United States. Japan, as the weaker alliance partner, has sidestepped China's pressure tactics. But this unpleasant experience has enhanced the strong Japanese trend toward a more hard-nosed and wary approach to China. The Japanese have concluded that China is now the most important and unpredictable geopolitical variable in Asia's future.

American policymakers and others need to consider the policy implications of new trends in China-Japan relations for the United States. Conversely, they need to consider the impactof changes in U.S.-China relations on Japan. In reaction tothe twists and turns in U.S.-China relations, Japanese opinion leaders have traditionally worried that America will either ignore Japan in its rush toward China or antagonize China without considering Japan's vital interests. Though the United States can hedge and constantly adjust its strategy and tactics vis-à-vis China and Japan, choices entail costs—America's influence may dissipate if it endlessly changes its course.

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