CIAO DATE: 07/03

Chinese Military Power

Executive Summary

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is currently engaged in comprehensive military modernization. This report addresses the state of China's military capability, assesses the current capabilities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), and establishes milestones for judging the future evolution of Chinese military power over the next twenty years. These assessments and milestones will provide policymakers and the public with a pragmatic and nonpartisan approach to measuring the development of Chinese military power. They will allow observers of Chinese military modernization to determine the degree to which changes in the quantity and quality of China's military power may threaten the interests of the United States, its allies, and its friends; and how the United States should adjust and respond politically, diplomatically, economically, and militarily to China's military development.

The report issues a double warning: first, against overreaction to the large scale of China's military modernization program; and second, against underreaction based on the relative backwardness of the People's Liberation Army compared with U.S. military power. Attributing to the PLA capabilities it does not have and will not attain for many years might risk the misallocation of scarce resources. Overreaction could lead the United States to adopt policies and undertake actions that become a self-fulfilling prophecy, provoking an otherwise avoidable antagonistic relationship that would not serve longterm U.S. interests. Underreaction, on the other hand, might allow China to someday catch unawares the United States or its friends and allies in Asia.

In analyzing the likely evolution of PLA capabilities, this report not only describes development processes and institutional, technological, personnel, doctrinal, and other systemic issues internal to the Chinese military establishment; it also takes into account the strategic, economic, political, and technological context shaping modernization. This larger context motivates, structures, and, at times, constrains military modernization as much as factors emerging from within the Chinese military alone.

Full Text (PDF, 99 pgs., 374 KB)