CIAO DATE: 09/04

China Crosses Threshold of Manned Spaceflight

Victoria Samson

Center for Defense Information

October 2004

At 9PM EST on Tuesday, October 14, China sent its first man into space. In doing so, it joined an elite club of countries who have made their citizens astronauts. The Soviet Union was the first to do so back in 1961, with the United States quickly following days later. China’s feat this week was the result of well over a decade’s hard work and determination. By far, it appears that the driving factor for its space program was prestige.

The same could be said for NASA’s space shuttle program — that it’s a good way of hooking the public onto the concept of space exploration. In a time of bitter debate over military and government spending, especially with the exorbitant costs of rebuilding Iraq, astronauts give the space program a human element and make the high costs and dubious scientific merit of space exploration somewhat more palatable.

However, for China, there is more to it. Putting a man in space is the culmination of a frustrating decade of setbacks. In 1995 explosions during a satellite launch killed ground observers and made some question the feasibility of a Chinese space program. Additionally, the Chinese government has been dogged with accusations abroad that it received help with its program from other countries, allegations that it vigorously denies.

China isn’t the only developing country wishing to gain some credibility via its space program. India, close on China’s heels, has stated that it aims to send an unmanned mission to the moon within five years and has been doing its best with its satellite program to maintain rapid momentum. Even countries with no real space program to speak of are looking to get into the act. Malaysia, for example, is reportedly in talks with Russian authorities about the possibility of sending up a Malaysian astronaut on an upcoming Russian mission to the International Space Station. This does not even begin to cover the explosion in the number of satellites and launch consortiums that are out there. The latest is Nigeria’s proud announcement that it had it first earth observation satellite launched on a European rocket last month.

If China’s manned space mission were simply a matter of national pride, most observers would wish them well and watch with distanced interest. However, it cannot be denied that there are consequences to regional peace and security. Even the official People’s Daily admits that “A manned space program has great military implications that cannot be ignored.”

One is that China’s space program may spur Japan’s missile defense program further. Japan, with one eye on North Korea, has recently announced that it wants to ramp up its commitment to developing a missile defense by spending $1.2 billion in FY 2004, with the goal of buying land– and sea–based technologies from the United States by 2006 and fielding them by 2007. If China’s program obtains more of a militaristic bent, some observers fear it may prompt Japan to further speed up its efforts to develop a missile defense.

Another issue to keep abreast on is the reconnaissance capabilities that China currently has or will soon have, thanks to its space missions. The vessel which flew on the 14th was the fifth in a series; the first four unmanned missions flew up electronic intelligence or military imaging payloads. Shenzhou 5’s orbital module is likely to contain a package that would further China’s ability to monitor the world and it would probably stay up there long after the astronaut comes back to earth.

Finally, China’s increased dedication to its space program allows it the possibility of eventually putting weapons in space. Officially, the government is opposed to weaponizing space and has come out repeatedly against it. Unofficially, however, it remains an option. If the United States were to deploy or even test an anti–satellite program, China would be well–placed to start one of its own if it already has the launch facilities and technological know–how gained from a solidly–supported space program.

China is starting to come out of its self–absorbed shell and engage with regional players. It has made some efforts, feeble ones at times but attempts nonetheless, to urge North Korea to become involved in multinational talks about its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. This is a healthy way to become influential on the global stage. A space mission can be another one. But if the United States overreacts, underreacts, or just plain reacts poorly to China’s recent accomplishment, a potentially destructive space race is in our future.