CIAO DATE: 09/04

North Korea’s Missile Flight Tests

Victoria Samson

Center for Defense Information

November 2003

Missile	Missile’estimated development start date	Flight Test	Missile’s estimated range
Scud B	Bought Soviet–made Scud–B and launchers from Egypt 1976–81; most likely received aid from China in missile technology.	April 1984; May 29–30, 1993	300 km
Scud C	Development began on the Scud C almost as soon as North Korea bought Scud technology from Egypt in the late 1970s.	May 1986; May 29–30, 1993	500 km
No Dong (ND)–1	1988, concurrently with the TD–1.	The first test of the ND–1 was in May 1990. The first successful test of the ND–1 was May 29–30, 1993. Four missiles were launched, at least one of which was a ND–1 (the others were Scud Bs and Cs). This came at a time when North Korea was threatening to withdraw from the Nuclear Non–Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The ND–1 in the 1993 flight test flew only about half its expected range and landed in the Sea of Japan	1,300 km
Taepo Dong (TD)–1	1988, concurrently with the ND–1.	Aug. 31, 1998. This three–stage missile attempted, according to the North Koreans, to launch a satellite. It did not succeed at that and the missile’s third stage did not function as planned. The first stage of the TD–1 landed in the Sea of Japan, while the second flew over Japan and landed in the water off its eastern shore. Although the test had been expected by Western intelligence, the TD–1’s third stage caught analysts by surprise.	2,000 km (2–stage). Untested variants of this could range farther: TD–2 ~ 3,500 km, TD–2 MOD up to 9,600 km (but the existence of the latter missile is highly theoretical).
An anti–ship cruise missile (ASCM) that is amodified version of China’s HY–2 Silkworm.	North Korea began its cruise missile program in the 1980s. In 1987, China attempted to deflect accusations that it had been selling Silkworms to Iran by blaming North Korea.	North Korea’s modification of the Silkworm ASCM was first launched in 1994, but the first successful flight test did not occur until May 23, 1997. More recently, flight tests were held Feb. 24, 2003, and March 10, 2003. During these tests, the ASCMs fell short due to problems with the guidance and control systems. More recently, three ASCM tests were suspected. Both Tokyo and Seoul confirmed the first test on Oct. 20, 2003. The Japanese government received “unconfirmed information” of missile testing on Oct. 21 and 25. This series of suspected test–launches coincided with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Bangkok, Thailand, where Pyongyang’s nuclear program was being discussed.	~150 km

*** North Korea’s self–imposed missile testing moratorium began in September 1999 and was extended in May 2001 (through 2003). In January 2003, North Korean officials began hinting that the moratorium would end soon. In the six–way talks held in Beijing during the end of August 2003, North Korea hinted that it might hold a missile test soon to prove it can deliver nuclear warheads. According to the U.S. government in October 2003, North Korea has restored a Taepo Dong test site, believed to be damaged by an explosion and fire during an engine–burning test in November 2002. The United States believes that the repairs to the site mean that Kim Jong Il’s regime has the ability to hold a missile test at any time. The second round of six–way talks is expected in mid–December in Beijing where the possibility of providing North Korea with a written security guarantee may be discussed.

Sources:

All: “Chronology of North Korean Missile Development,” Agence France Presse, March 10, 2003.

Scud B & C: “USSR Supplies Scud Missiles to N. Korea, Brzezinski says,” Jiji Press Ticker Service, Nov. 26, 1984; “South Korean Briefing Confirms North’s Missile Test,” BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, June 26, 1993.

ND–1: “ND–1,” Federation of American Scientists, “Background Brief: the North Korean NoDong Series of IRBMs,” Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, Feb. 14, 2003; “South Korean Briefing Confirms North’s Missile Test,” BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, June 26, 1993; “N. Korea Tests Missile Able to Reach Japan,” Los Angeles Times, June 12, 1993.

TD–1: “Taepo-Dong Series Ballistic Missiles,” Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, Feb. 18, 2003; “N. Korean Missile Test Surprised US,” Associated Press Online, Sept. 24, 1998; “North Korea Missile Test Threatens Nuclear Pact,” Washington Post, Sept. 1, 1998.

ASCM: “N. Korea Prepares New Test of Missile; U.S. Fears Launch of Long–range Arms,” Washington Times, March 12, 2003; “North Korea Tested a Cruise Missile; U.S. Revises View of Monday Firing,” Washington Times, Feb. 27, 2003; “N. Korea Fires New Cruise Missile; Anti–ship Weapon Spotted by U.S.,” Washington Times, June 30, 1997; “Chinese Missile Sales: a Chronology,” Middle East Defense News, May 17, 1993.

Summary: “N. Korea completes repair of missile test site, U.S. says,” Japan Economic Newswire, Oct. 29, 2003; “North Korea nuclear talks likely to open Dec 17–18: official,” Agence France Presse, Nov. 17, 2003.