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CIAO DATE: 3/5/2007
How Many Weapons Are There in Cambodia?
Christina Wille
Abstract
This background paper explains the evidence and logic for the small arms and light weapons stockpile estimates for Cambodia that are presented in the 2006 Small Arms Survey yearbook chapter (Small Arms Survey, 2006) and other Small Arms Survey publications on Cambodia. These state that there are 107,000–188,000 small arms and light weapons presently in government stockpiles, and 22,000–85,000 weapons outside of government control.
The estimate of legal and illegal stockpiles was carried out during 2005. It is based on interviews in Cambodia and a thorough review of available sources on weapons stockpiles over the last 20 years. The revised estimate was made in order to update previous estimates and to provide evidence on the impact of the concerted small arms programmes started in 1998. Previously published numbers dated from the period prior to the commencement of these programmes. They were associated with great uncertainties and their reliability had been questioned by those working most closely on the issue in Cambodia (Tieng, Long, and Hicks, 2004, pp. 11–12).
Anecdotal evidence suggested that the small arms programmes had had a significant impact on the small arms situation in Cambodia. Estimates of the proportion of illegal and legal small arms touched by the weapons collection and destruction programmes are an important indicator of the impact of these programmes.
This paper begins with a short overview of available methods of estimating government and privately owned firearms stockpiles and their applicability to Cambodia. The work on Cambodia’s stockpile estimates starts by outlining conclusions about private ownership patterns prior to the Khmer Rouge coming to power and attitudes to civilian firearms ownership during the civil war. This section is followed by estimates derived from historical reconstruction methods of the civil war weapons pool and movements following the Paris Agreements in 1991, including an overview of import and export patterns. The paper concludes with triangulation of the derived estimates with estimates from other sources as a means to assess the former’s reliability.
