CIAO DATE: 10/04

Collision Avoidance: U.S.-Russian Bilateral Relations and Former Soviet States

Abstract

Relations between the United States and Russia are entering a delicate phase. American involvement on the Russian periphery is reaching unprecedented proportions even as a consensus has emerged in Russia that these areas constitute its exclusive sphere of influence.

U.S. efforts in the former Soviet states are simply an extension of the global war on terrorism and are intended to provide security and stability to countries still struggling with independence.

But to many Russians, the U.S. military presence in Central Asia and security assistance to many former Soviet states seem to be deliberate attempts at encirclement. This perception creates an atmosphere ripe for miscalculation and even confrontation.

To avoid a collision, Washington and Moscow should initiate a dialogue on their respective activities in former Soviet lands to develop tacit rules in pursuing their interests. This effort should eschew any inclination to divide former Soviet lands into spheres of influence. Rather, both governments should give each other ample warning of their activities and seek solutions to their differences.

Russian support for or noninterference with American endeavors in former Soviet states would enhance their chances for success. But Moscow can also undermine these efforts, a turn of events that could seriously damage bilateral relations.

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