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Email this citationCIAO DATE: 09/04
Stand–Off with North Korea: War Scenarios and Consequences
Colin Robinson and Stephen H. Baker
Center for Defense Information
May 2003
Abstract
North Korea’s military threat and somewhat peculiar approaches to international relations have been a central difficulty in dealing with the isolated regime during the past decade. In the early 1990s, North Korea, formally known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), was expected by many observers to collapse, just as communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union did.
However, the embattled state hung on. Despite a collapsing economy, widespread famine, and cooling relations with its previous major supporters — the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation — North Korea not only survived but also managed to bolster its conventional forces and, according to North Korean officials, covertly build a small nuclear arsenal. Its still avowed aim of reunifying the Peninsula under communist rule, and the massive military force it has built to be able to do so, present a continuing threat of war in North East Asia.
This report identifies the key scenarios for potential U.S. military conflict with North Korea, and analyzes likely military outcomes and other consequences.
