CIAO DATE: 07/03

Taiwan in U.S.-China Relations

Introduction

It is hardly a revelation that U.S. relations with Taiwan and the People's Republic of China are vexed and vexing. Managing U.S. relationships with Taiwan and China has never been easy, but the trend seems to be toward ever greater complexity and ever higher stakes. The U.S. is like a helicopter pilot carrying out a rescue at sea. The pilot is struggling to hover above the boat, which is drifting and heaving, while the wind does its best to blow his craft out of the sky. Meanwhile, the passengers on the deck are fighting over who gets to go up first. Like the helicopter pilot, U.S. policy makers must hold a steady course while they wait for Taiwan and China to resolve their differences. They also would like to do what they can to speed up the negotiations down on the deck.

Preserving an unsatisfactory status quo is not a task policy makers relish, but they are left with little choice, as Taiwan and China are still very far from agreement on the underlying conflicts between them. Prospects for a mutually-acceptable, permanent solution are slim, largely because both parties define their goals primarily in negative terms; each is seeking to prevent an undesirable outcome. Moreover, what positive goals they do have are incompatible. Worst of all, both sides are driven by fear.

Taiwan's primary goal is to avoid being annexed or absorbed by the PRC. Its main positive objective is to enhance its international recognition and status, but this goal, too, is motivated by defensive considerations. Some Taiwanese also imagine that it may be possible to establish a de jure independent state. However, their dream has been pushed to the side because Taiwan's political elites believe it is unrealistic. Nonetheless, there is a vocal core of people Taiwanese call "fundamentalists" who are committed to keeping formal independence on the agenda. At the same time, Beijing maintains a climate of fear in Taiwan by refusing to renounce the use of military force against the island. It has kept the conditions under which it would resort to force sufficiently vague that Taiwan cannot accurately predict what will provoke a crisis. At the same time, the PRC is ramping up its military capabilities to match its threats.

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