CIAO DATE: 08/02

Anticipating Strategic Surprise on the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

The June 2000 summit between South Korean President, Kim Dae Jung, and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong Il, raised hopes for reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula. South Korean officials anticipated a return summit in Seoul and considered a declaration of peace within reach. Today, stagnation is the likely prospect for inter-Korean relations, which could make U.S. policy a scapegoat during the South Korean election year.

Kim Jong Il can influence the pace, if not the substance, of diplomacy on the peninsula, and diplomatic surprise cannot be ruled out. Pyongyang almost certainly would seek to exploit a second summit to drive carefully crafted wedges between Washington and Seoul on key security issues.

Despite a rapidly contracting economy, Kim Jong Il has continued to commit scarce resources to strengthening North Korean positions along the DMZ. While observing a self-imposed freeze on missile testing, Pyongyang continues to export missiles and missile-related technologies to areas of strategic interest to the United States. Yet to be resolved is the record of North Korea's own attempt to develop nuclear weapons.

To protect U.S. interests during this election year, the Bush administration should pursue an activist diplomatic and security strategy informed by the principles of transparency, reciprocity, and verification. The objective should be to move North Korea toward an economic and political opening.

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