Columbia International Affairs Online
CIAO DATE: 6/5/2007
We Can See Clearly Now: The limits of foresight in the pre-World War II Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA)
March 2006
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract
RMA narratives tend to depict today’s policy struggle as pitting clear vision and foresight on one side against parochial interests and bureaucratic inertia on the other. For each of today’s RMA schools the general contours of a prospective revolution seem clear. From within these perspectives, risk seems mostly associated with the prospect of failing to enact change in a timely fashion. But this view depreciates the very substantial uncertainty surrounding RMA prescriptions – not to mention the significant disagreements and discontinuities among the different transformation schools and service visions.
