CIAO DATE: 04/02

Nesting the Alliances in the Emerging Context of Asia-Pacific Multilateral Processes: A U.S. Perspective

As Americans consider their options for protecting and advancing their interests in Asia in the twenty-first century, it is natural that there will be wide-ranging views and vigorous debate. Recent events such as the 1996 Taiwan crisis, the Asian economic meltdown in 1997, and the exchange of state visits by presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin in 1997 and 1998 have intensified, then moderated and redirected, much of the debate over a very short span of time. Two years ago, for example, the Chinese were worrying aloud about American efforts to "encircle" China. Now they talk about "building a constructive strategic partnership with the U.S." Despite these ups and downs, however, the fundamental choices for the United States have remained largely the same.

The United States has the option to seek to maintain the status quo, in the hope that its allies' and its own internal politics will not undermine current arrangements over time. To assuage domestic opinion, Washington might become more overtly demanding of Tokyo and Seoul in economic as well as security terms. Alternatively, the U.S. leadership can prepare to back out of Asia over time, relying on American power-projection capability to assert its interests there when required. Furthermore, it might view its traditional allies as relatively declining powers and seek to center future strategy on association with the rising power of the region, China. Full-blown isolationism, though running contrary to the history of the last fifty years, is not off the table politically. Other variants for consideration as U.S. policy options probably can be imagined.

This paper will not argue the advantages and disadvantages of each of these options. Rather, it will address specifically an additional option: nesting the alliances in the emerging context of Asia-Pacific multilateral processes. The paper will identify the pluses of such an approach and some of its minuses. Then it will make suggestions as to how to realize movement in this direction.

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