CIAO DATE: 07/02

The Aid and Reconstruction Agenda for Afghanistan

Abstract

With the Taliban and al Qaeda largely defeated, a temporary coalition government taking power in Afghanistan, the Freedom Bridge near Uzbekistan finally open to relief efforts, and foreign donors promising significant aid more generally, the future looks increasingly promising for the Afghan people. But many challenges remain, even beyond the immediate priority of completing the military operation. Without rapid delivery of sufficient food, shelter, and medical supplies, Afghanistan could still experience a humanitarian catastrophe this winter. Without great care to shore up the coalition government, it could fail, just as state-building efforts have failed with disastrous consequences in places such as Angola, Rwanda, and Somalia in recent years. Without sufficient delivery of reconstruction aid, Afghanistan could remain mired in the same poverty and chaos that gave rise to the Taliban in the first place.

This paper focuses on how aid and reconstruction efforts can mitigate these dangers. It focuses particularly on three issues: how many resources, and of what type, the donor community should prepare to provide to Afghanistan; how much of that aid should be distributed through the central government in Kabul and how much on a regional basis; and what type of peacekeeping force is likely to be needed in the coming weeks to help provide stability and to allow humanitarian relief efforts to occur safely and effectively.