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CIAO DATE: 05/06
When Suicide Bombing Reaches the Tipping Point
Sam Grier
October 2005
Introduction
While at the macroscopic level numerous analyses have been devoted to finding the root causes of terrorism in the interest of preventing and countering terrorism as comprehensively as possible, a whole range of complementary preventive measures could be taken at a more microscopic level. It is therefore important to identify the catalysts of the forces fuelling terrorism, so as to compose a holistic menu of small and coordinated preventive actions as part of a first line of defence.
In this pursuit, last year's NDC Occasional Paper No. 3 on Fighting Terrorism: Financial and Economic Aspects provided insights on the financing mechanisms of terrorist activities and made some policy recommendations for the fight against terrorist organisations.
Religion, fanaticism, desperation and hatred have often been suggested as root causes for terrorism in general, but the findings determine that there is no consensus or unanimous vision on what constitutes the motivation and origins of terrorism, nor what comprises the real rationale for a growing form of terrorism: suicide attackers.
Most analysts warn of the mistake of trying to explain suicide attacks through the prism of religion or through the deforming mirror of desperation, collective historical injustice and humiliation. Research also demonstrates that suicide attackers do not necessarily present a specific psychological dysfunction, and their education and economic status are equal to and in some cases exceed that of the rest of the population.
Why then are suicide bombings increasing so rapidly in frequency and numbers and what can be done about it?
In this Occasional Paper, the Dean of the NATO Defense College, Dr Sam Grier, provides us with the perspective of the "tipping point", which explains why "an idea, trend, or social behaviour crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire". The theory of the "tipping point" was popularised by Malcolm Gladwell's book The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. It has become a common cliché applied to any process where beyond a certain point, the rate at which the process proceeds, increases dramatically.
By analyzing the agents of change and situational factors, Dr Grier's essay advances our understanding of the "forces behind certain behaviours" and the point where they become "contagious social epidemics". Beyond the morality aspect of suicide attacks and the unresolved debate of their root causes, this study provides a useful framework for comprehending and countering the forces fuelling the present suicide bombing epidemic.
Marc VANKEIRSBILCK, ir
Lieutenant General Belgian Air Force
Commandant NATO Defense College
