CIAO DATE: 08/02

"One China" and Relations Across the Taiwan Strait

Abstract

Relations between China and Taiwan have reached an impasse. Former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's statement on "special state-to-state relations" in 1999 triggered the latest round of cross-strait recriminations. Beijing's reply came just before Taiwan's presidential election, in a white paper entitled, "The One China Principle and the Taiwan Issue." It announced that China was prepared to use force against Taiwan if negotiations on unification are indefinitely postponed.

Both sides would like to find a way out of their respective corners. Taipei can go no further in asserting its separate identity without risking military action by China. New President Chen Shui-bian announced that he would "not push forth the inclusion of the so-called 'state-to-state' description in the [Republic of China's] Constitution." At the same time, as evidenced by Chen's election, Beijing's reliance on the threat of force to influence events is waning. It seems prepared to wait for some further positive steps from Chen that would allay continuing suspicions of his commitment to independence.

This post-election period presents Beijing and Taipei with an opportunity to defuse a potentially explosive situation. They are carefully seeking openings to reduce the level of tension between them and to redirect relations away from confrontation and within the context of a measured assessment of their respective strategic interests.

The United States policy of strategic ambiguity encourages these tendencies and should therefore be adhered to rigorously.

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