CIAO DATE: 07/03

Taiwan's Approach to Cross-Strait Relations

Is Time on Taiwan's Side?

The current impasse in the Taiwan Strait is most unfortunate and unnecessary. It is unfortunate because it is directly linked with Taiwan's economic decline. Continuing the impasse would most likely prolong the misery, even if other contributing factors such as internal partisan strife or international stagnation were to be rectified. It is unfortunate also because it may constrain Taiwan's choices in a region where economic development and integration seem to be the leading trend. It is unnecessary because in at least three important ways, the Republic of China and President Chen are now better positioned than ever before to find a way out of the current impasse. First, Taiwan now enjoys more goodwill and firmer support from its friends in the U.S. than in any other period of its history. Recent improvement in U.S.-PRC relations has not been made at its expense. So Taiwan should be more confident and more imaginative in its dealings with Beijing. Second, after relying heavily on the hard approach toward Taiwan for most of the last decade, including twice "aiding" the election of the more undesirable presidential candidates, the PRC appears now to have learned a painful lesson and hence is more inclined to experiment with the use of its soft hand. Opportunity for resumption of cross-Strait dialogue thus beckons for the first time in a long time for serious mutual exploration. Third, if President Chen desired rapprochement with the Mainland and if he could gain sufficient understanding of his followers within the Pan-Greens, he would most likely win the support of the Pan-Blues. The latter three parties have been advocating a less confrontational policy toward the Mainland and would probably not seek to cut the President's olive branch. The combination of external and internal conditions is thus quite salutary for a new approach to Taiwan's mainland policy.

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