CIAO DATE: 6/00

China, Nuclear Weapons, and Arms Control: A Preliminary Assessment

Summary

Historically, U.S. nuclear strategists and arms control experts have paid little attention to the People's Republic of China (PRC). China has not been a major factor in the U.S. nuclear calculus, which has remained centered on U.S.-Russian nuclear arsenals as the principal framework for arms control and arms reductions. Yet today China is the only one of the five de jure nuclear weapons states qualitatively and quantitatively expand-ing its nuclear arsenal.

In contrast to the Cold War nuclear paradigm that remains centered on Russia, this report offers the proposition that over the next decade or so, China's nuclear choices may matter to the United States at least as much as Russia's, if not more so. The report focuses on China's current nuclear deployments, the status of its nuclear modernization efforts, and its doctrinal debates, which offer hints at the trajectory and possible endstates of its nuclear modernization. The report also poses questions about the impact of China's nuclear program on U.S. and Russian arms control efforts and for the development of missile defenses.

  Full Text of Paper (pdf)