CIAO DATE: 03/04

Modernizing China's Military: A High-Stakes Gamble?

Abstract

China is committed to modernizing almost every aspect of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). But military modernization may be more of a high-stakes gamble than Beijing realizes. Politics and professionalism may not mix well.

No matter how carefully crafted, modernization inevitably will alter the PLA sense of identity and change its relationship over time with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Modernization may foment friction between military and civilian authorities competing for political primacy and limited resources or create within the PLA divisive social issues similar to those dogging Chinese civil society generally.

The CCP struggle to define its future in a changing society makes the problem more complex. The PLA could become a truly national army, unwilling to be a tool for enforcing party dicta or policing internal security. Or PLA factions could end up vying for power. The resulting instability, if not outright anarchy, could threaten all of Asia.

The final nature of an empowered, modernized PLA is anyone's guess. In one worstcase scenario, the PLA is an aggressive, nationalistic entity fueled by radical Chinese militarism. In a positive scenario, a more professional PLA with enhanced capability and self-confidence might become a safer, less insular military that is cognizant of the need for disciplined action and measured responses, bound by well-understood rules of engagement and, overall, a more potent force for preserving regional stability.

Full text (PDF, 6 pages, 2.04 MB)