CIAO DATE: 09/04

Japan’s Recent Step–up in Missile Defense

Rui Kotani

Center for Defense Information

October 2003

Introduction

On Aug. 28, 2003, at a six–nation conference in Beijing, North Korea declared that Pyongyang possessed nuclear weapons and intended to conduct nuclear tests. On the following day, the Japanese government officially announced its decision to introduce a U.S.–made missile defense system in order to protect its major metropolitan centers from North Korean missiles. Japan ’s Defense Agency (JDA) requested 142.3 billion yen ($1.206 billion) for the fiscal year 2004 (FY 04) budget for its missile defense program, including 134.1 billion yen ($1.136 billion) for procurement. According to JDA officials, the agency hopes to acquire the systems as early as 2006, and after test launches, to deploy them in 2007 at the earliest.

The new missile defense system

Japan plans to acquire a two–stage missile defense system, under which a ballistic missile fired against Japan is first detected by sensors and then targeted by the Aegis destroyer–based Standard Missile–3 (SM–3) for interception during the incoming missile’s mid–course phase beyond the Earth’s atmosphere. If that first–stage defense fails, a ground–to–air Patriot Advanced Capability–3 (PAC–3) missile will be launched to shoot down the incoming missile near the surface of the Earth in the terminal flight stage.

In the new mid–course phase program, the agency plans to deploy the SM–3 interceptors while upgrading all four of its 7,250–ton Aegis–equipped destroyers over a period of four years. The Aegis system will be initially placed abroad the Maritime Self–Defense Force (SDF) vessel Kongo. If the budget is approved, the ship would be the biggest military vessel owned by an Asian nation.

In the terminal flight program, Japan will install and deploy the PAC–3 system at four of the six ground–to–air missile units of the Air SDF set up for the Kanto (around Tokyo prefecture) region at bases in Narashino, Takeyama, Kasumigaura and Iruma. In addition, Japan will also introduce battle management, command, control, communications and intelligence of both of the sea– and ground–based missile defense systems.

The FY 04 budget

As mentioned above, next year’s requested budget for these operations is 134.1 billion yen. The JDA expects to spend at least 500 billion yen ($4.23 billion) by the end of the FY 10. However, critics point out that including maintenance and operating costs, the missile defense system could exceed 1 trillion yen.

The budget for the FY 04 also includes a research effort by the U.S.–Japan Working Group on TMD Cooperation. The joint program has been conducting cooperative research for the United States and Japan under the DoD/JDA memorandum of agreement signed in 1999. The focus of the research remains on four components of the SM–3 guided missile: sensor, advanced kinetic warhead, second stage propulsion, and lightweight nosecone. In FY 2005 and FY 2006, the program is scheduled to conduct flight tests of the lightweight nosecone.

The budget also covers the expenses for establishing a ballistic missile defense office within the Policy Section of the Department of Defense. The purpose of this office is to support the missile defense acquisition process.

As an additional component of the new missile defense system, the JDA announced on Sept. 14 that it would develop a new type of radar called FPS–XX. Using electronic scanning to control the orientation of electromagnetic waves, the radar is designed to detect ballistic missiles, such as North Korea ’s Nodong, several hundred kilometers away from any base in Japan . The JDA plans to make budgetary requests for one radar–set per fiscal year starting in 2006. The estimated FY 06 budget for this new radar is 15 billion yen ($ 127 million). Meanwhile, the JDA will upgrade seven sets of the currently used radar called FPS–3, as part of its effort to build a system to detect ballistic missiles with an 11–site network.

U.S. missile defense umbrella

In order to protect Japan and U.S. forces from a North Korean ballistic missile attack, the United States has been recently considering deploying an Aegis defense system with SM–3 at a U.S. naval base in Japan possibly starting from 2004. This means that Japan would be protected under the umbrella of the U.S. missile defense system before building its own system. If the plan is finalized, Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture would probably be chosen as the vessels’ de facto homeport.

Controversies

The introduction of the MD system has long been controversial in Japan. Three main issues are: legal matters, the system’s doubted effectiveness, and security concerns raised by neighboring countries.

Japan has a war–renouncing constitution, which permits self–defense but not collective defense. Legally, the launch of missile defense interceptor from Japan against ballistic missiles targeting a third country would be regarded as collective defense and therefore illegal. JDA officials insist that they will be able to distinguish incoming missiles targeted at Japan from the others. However, doubts remain.

Another legal controversy is that the Japanese government may alter the legal procedure to launch interceptor missiles. Currently Japan ’s SDF law requires the prime minister to receive approval from the Security Council and the Cabinet before issuing a defense mobilization order, which would allow the SDF to use the missile defense system. Going through these steps would take approximately 30 minutes, but North Korea ’s Nodong missile would take only approximately 10 minutes to hit Japan. In order to reduce the time constraint, the Japanese government now seeks to establish a new procedure which would allow the prime minister to issue the mobilization order without having to obtain the prior approval from the Security Council or the Cabinet. This shortened procedure would be implemented under certain conditions, such as when an enemy missile launch is confirmed, according to the JDA officials. But establishing a new legal procedure will undoubtedly prompt intense discussion among lawmakers.

Technical difficulties remain a major problem. According to experts, the technology to intercept the North Korean missile Nodong, which flies at a speed of 4 kilometers per second, has not yet been developed. Also, with the planned Japanese missile defense system, protecting the entire archipelago around the clock is impossible. JDA officials claimed that, theoretically, two Aegis ships are sufficient to protect the entire nation. However, they admitted that due to logistical limitations, it would be impossible to have even one ship out in the sea for more than a month at a time. Furthermore, the PAC–3 units are incapable of guarding the whole territory since their reach is limited to around 20 km. Therefore the planned new system is designed to defend only metropolitan areas, including the greater Tokyo, and strategic bases. This disparity of protection will probably cause heated debate in upcoming Diet deliberation.

In addition to legal and technical issues, disapproval from neighboring countries is a problem for Japan ’s missile defense program. The Japanese government emphasizes that the system will be strictly used for defensive purposes and should not be regarded as a threat to neighboring countries. However, China is already vocal about its opposition to Japan ’s missile defense program. In a meeting with Japan ’s Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Sept. 3, China ’s Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan warned that Japan ’s planned ballistic missile defense could undermine global strategic balance and start a new arms race. The system theoretically could tip the regional balance of power by impeding the strength of China ’s own ballistic missile force. Fear of losing its effective deterrence capability could also easily push China into an effort to upgrade its nuclear stockpiles. Ishiba responded to Gangchuan by reiterating Japan’s “purely defensive” intention and asked Beijing for its understanding. But this effort may not be enough to prevent the destabilization of East Asia.

Sources:

“All Japan ’s Aegis ships to be upgraded for missile defence,” Kyodo in BBC Monitoring International Reports, Aug. 24, 2003.

“China expresses concern at Japan’s missile defence plan,” Kyodo in BBC Monitoring International Reports, Sept. 3, 2003.

“China warns Japan of possible arms race,” United Press International, Sept. 8, 2003. “Government may ease procedure for missile defense,” Yomiuri Shimbun, Aug. 25, 2003.

Hayashi, Michio and Hidaka, Tetsuo. “Missile defense plan faces challenges; 2–phase system still under development; the legal issues must be addressed,” Yomiuri Shimbun, June 23, 2003.

“Heisei 16 nendo Bouei–cho boueiryoku seibi to gaisan youkyuu no point,” [Japan Defense Agency FY2004 Defense Budget Estimates]

“Missile Defense Agency FY 2004/2005 Biennial Budget Estimates.” MDA

“Japan Defense Agency asks for budget for Ballistic Missile Defense,” AFP, Aug. 29, 2003.

“ Japan ’s missile defence system to concentrate on urban areas,” Kyodo in BBC Monitoring International Reports, Aug. 18, 2003.

“ Japan Needs Command Network in Adopting BMD: Ishiba,” Jiji Press Ticker Service. June 13, 2003.

“Japan planning to create integrated missile defence force,” Kyodo in BBC Monitoring International Reports, Aug. 6, 2003.

“ Japan to introduce controversial U.S. missile defense system,” Mainichi Daily News, July 12, 2003.

“Missile defense system to protect Japan , US forces from North Korean ‘attack,’ ” Kyodo in BBC Monitoring International Reports. Sept. 2, 2003.

“ Japan to develop new radar to detect North Korean missiles,” Kyodo in BBC Monitoring International Reports, Sept. 14, 2003.

“Patriot plus,” Herald Asahi, Sept. 1, 2003.

Saiget, Robert J, “ China warns Japan that missile defense plans could spark arms race,” AFP, Sept. 3, 2003.

“Time to debate missile shield,” Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 2, 2003.