CIAO DATE: 04/02

Seoul Domestic Policy and the Korean-American Alliance

While domestic politics helps to shape foreign policy, the two do not necessarily covary. That is to say, fundamental change in the former may not always trigger corresponding change in the latter. This is especially true of an alliance relationship, for a shared perception of an external threat that helps to sustain such a relationship is frequently unaffected by domestic political change.

The developments on the Korean peninsula during the past decade exemplify these observations. Notwithstanding breathtaking changes in South Korea's domestic politics, the perceived threat emanating from North Korea has not abated, leaving the alliance between the Republic of Korea and the United States intact. The emergence of the nuclear crisis in the early 1990s, coupled with the frequency with which the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) precipitates provocative incidents vis-à-vis the Republic of Korea (ROK), has actually enhanced the importance of the Seoul-Washington alliance.

Democratization, under way in South Korea since 1987, has not only entailed a marked increase in the degree to which its citizens are allowed to exercise freedom of expression but has also magnified the potential influence of public opinion and the press in policy making. None of this, however, has adversely affected the ROK-US alliance. The press has actually become more conservative, that is, hostile toward the North, which is translated into staunch support for the alliance, the principal source and symbol of deterrence against North Korean aggression. Supporting the alliance, however, is not the same thing as being pro-American. On such issues as trade friction, defense burden sharing, the Status of Forces Agreement, and arms purchases from the United States, the press, which both reflects and helps to shape public opinion, tends to strike an unmistakably nationalistic posture. Despite a surge of nationalism, anti-Americanism has yet to emerge as a potent political force in South Korea, however. South Korea's transition to democracy has coincided with both the demise of socialism in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union and the rapid deterioration and near collapse of the North Korean economy. As a result, the radical student movement in the South, which extols the DPRK's ideology of chuch'e (self-reliance) while advocating the removal of the U.S. military presence and the termination of the ROK-US alliance, has failed to increase its political base.

I propose to begin this paper by delineating change and continuity in South Korean domestic politics. Next, I shall examine the emergence of the Kim Dae Jung government, briefly noting the manner in which inter-Korean relations and foreign policy, of which the ROK-US alliance is the centerpiece, were handled during the 1997 presidential election. I shall also discuss the constraints on the Kim Dae Jung government as well as the opportunities that have materialized. I then turn to a tentative assessment of the performance of the Kim Dae Jung government, scrutinizing progress registered and changes implemented in two related areas–inter-Korean relations and ROK-US relations. Finally, I shall ponder the probable sources of change and continuity in the Korean-American alliance, examining such factors as domestic political pressure and a possible reduction, even disappearance, of the North Korean threat.

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